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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 F'OR OFFICIAI. USE ONLY = JPRS L/ 1 Q001 22 September 1981 USSR Re ort = p ECONOMIC AFF~4IRS (FOUO 14/81) _ Deterioration of Seviet Economic lnformation ~nalyzed ~ ~B~$ ~OREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFF~CIAL ~JSE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2447/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400454451-6 NOTE JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] or [ExcerptJ in the first line of each item, or following the - last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarize~l or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enciosed in parentheses were not clear in the _ original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an _ item originate with the source. Times within items are as _ given by source. The contents of this publication in no way regresent the poli- cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULA.TIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONI,Y. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 ' FOR OEFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/10~01 ~ 22 September 1981 USSR REPORT ECONOMIC AFFAIRS (FOUO 14/81) DETcRIORATION OF SOVIET ECONOMIC INFORMATIOfV ANALYZED Aubervilliers LE COURRIER DES PAYS DE L'EST in French No 245, Nov 80, pp 3-30 [Article by Marie-Agnes Cro~nier and_Anita Tiraspolsky: "The Decline of Economic Information in the USSR: An Attempt at Explanation"] - ~~extj In the domain or infor,nation, all societies are confronted with t:~e same di.- 1e~mma: to what poin~ :nust one permit the publication and dirfusion oz data withuut - causin; injury to the interescs of the government in power that is t;-ying to justiry government policy, ~o ~rotect itself against rorei;n competition, and to preserve r~i?itary secrecy'. � The secrac~ of ir.*o r.nation has always been a reason of state in the USSR, maintained ~ore ri~orouslv than else~ahere, In the last seve-al years it has been particularly st~engthened, wherzas one might nave noped, arter the Helsinki Conference of 1975; for an evolution in the opposite direction. Consideration ot the official statistics `urnished by the Soviet Union since that data reveals quite clearly a serious impoverishment of the data published, ~oth on the d~o~estic econom,~ and on relations with other countries.^' _ Ic is a quantitative impoverishment rirst of all: between 15 and ?0 perce~t J.ess ~n- ro rnation on the USSR's economy between 1974 and 1979. More serious is tze v~alita- Cive impoverishment, ir.asmuch as the new amputations affect key categories ot infor- mation: structure of net national expenditure and of product created, regional dis- tribu[ion of the big production categories, exports of oil, imports of ceLeals, etc., in addition to the very- numerous traditional omissions Lrom Soviet statistics. What e:cplanatior.s are to be offered for this systematic desire ro obscure economic reality? Agoravation oi interzal diificulties has combined with a~heightening of in- t2rnaticnal tensions, leading the Soviet leaders to reduce information on their even more. Domestic Economic Information ~by Marie-Agnes Crosnier) Despite =:~e improvements iZ the preparation and presentatior_ of statistics, t!~ev ;e- main an imper~ect tool in aIl ecor.omic systems, even ttioug:~ thera is nothing equiva- * ~he .detai?~d a.~::tysis ~ot the anr.ual reports as presented in table forn can be con- sulced at ~'_;e C~;llCC~c (Center ic,r ~tudies and Docu~aentation on the L'SSR, C:~ina and Eastern ~urope]. 1 FOR OF~IC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ient co i: ~or iearning about an ~conomic reality. 'Lhis would hold true likewise for the economies o~ Sovie[ tvpe. In them, the insut~iciency--in al: for.ns--ot the sta- data is especial?y acute, and a11 the more so in t:~at the means oi investi- gation on ~ne spot arp extremely limited and are t:~~ assential and irreplacable re- sort, ~iow the `act ~ay not ~e ignored t`:ac the statistical apparatus or the aocial- ist count~ies is aoove a11 t:~e ~roduct ot a political system in which the scatz r~-� tains a~onopoly or the production of inior.nation and control over it; thus the role or this a~par-stus is, mor~ t~an e:sewhere, to serve this syste:n: statistics are there=ore an inte~ral part o= the ~low of reasons for legitimization or the govern- mental power. Because or this Eacr, they can give oi the Soviet-type system only ar. altered re:lection of the i~age which the USSR--we shall linit our analysis te tha~ country--wants to ?resent to its population and to the outside world. I~ is there- ~ore par~icu~ar:~~ aec~ssar,~ to nandle the statistics furnished o;~ the Sovietauthor.i- *~ZS +JIC:: ~;~�_dt ~L'LdZ:2C�_, CO L1SlC2 L1S2 Ot a wide range OT ~Ol1rC�S, ?nd CO i?ly tIIOLB Ori tha concer~enc~s and ~ntersections of sources than on isolated indexes. The Soviet statistical apoaratus nas not stayed in a fi:ced zorm during these last ~t~ vears: it has bent under t:~e ~~arious pressures or the USSR's domestic and ext2rna~ ~o1ic;~. ?'hus thp per~ods o:: relaCi~re Iiberalization result in an increase in the volL:me o~ :zfor~atior. di~~used, and the opposita phenomenon can al~aays be seen also. ~e ~irst annual statisticai report came of the presses in I919 ~"Statistical C'ompez- dit:m t~r the ?eriod i913-1917"), and it was followed by man~ ~ublications that i11us-- trated t`.:e Yew r',conomic ?olicy; ~he tradition was maintained, ~ear in and year out, until 1938. But witn the oucbreak of WW II and the rise or Stalin, silence was ab- ruotly inoosed, and it aas not until the ?Oth Congress that an annual sratistical r~~- - ~or*_ ror cne liSSR ("'?'he V2tional Ecoromy of the USSR") appeared again, in 1956. The pe:iod ~x~~nc:ing to the ~id-1970's and marked by both a certain ideological liberali- zation, nany at*_:mpts at aconomic decentralization and a gradual opening-up to the outside world aas charactarized also by a better fate for economic in=ozmation. 1hen another ~harp turn was taken, and para~oxically, just after the Helsinici Conference - on ~uropean Security and Cooperation (August 1975), ~~hich was intended to establish = aea, closer ro r.n of cooperation bet�aeen states and contribute to better mutual unde-- standir.g of ~heir reaLi=ies. is ta~,ot~:~3 t~ relate .his c:~ange oi tack to the turning-ia on itselr wnicn tne USSR began as a result o~ the neigheening of the world crisis, the impact o: the c:_- sis on. i*_s ?cor.omy, ar.d the continually worsening in~ernal st:uctural di`~iculties - =nat it aas ex~erier.ced since the middie of the 1970's. This tnrnzng:i~ard, *~rhich was exaressed b}� a hardening of the regime internally and externally, has had the = conseqLence, in the statistical area, of systematically dryiag up *_he soc:rces ot1zse- ' ~u1 inror.nation. T?~e secor.d ~as:~et of ~:~e ?~zal :~ct of the 3elsinki Conference included a ~ew lines about nationa? statist~cal data (production, national income, tudget, consumption, ~+roductivi*_J); the ~artic~~ating states co~aitted themselves to encourage publicat:i_o~z and ci~~usion. o= ~hem on a~~ast scale and wichin relatively short times_: :~s a ne~a Coaference, `ollowing upon t~ose ot 'rielsinki and 3el~race, is aoout to nper in uad:id tais ~ont:~, vovember, ic is beirig attempced to escablish c::e tq~es o~ in- `oz-~at~or, thac t:.e 'JSS~ now ~ants to ~onceal. musc be recogz:ized that che Soviet " s~atistical se_^~ic~s ~ave zonered at Ieast one coa~ni~ment made at Heisinki: t5e time- periocs ~~r prcduccion o~ =!~e princi~al statis~icai tooi, the ~SS~'s annual statist_- 2 ' FOR OFFIt;IAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400450051-6 ' FOR O~FICIAL USE ONLY cal report ("varodnoe Knozjajstvo SSS~" :or the year :-19..:), have been s~ortzned by 2 nonths since 1975 ^urther.nor2, *_he printing has ir.c:eased by IO,J00 copies ~etaeen ~:~e 1974 report (45,000 copies) and that of 1978 (~5,000 copies); but a new decrease, by ~,000 copies, was made ~or the most rzcent oublica- tion, the ?979 annual =eport. On the other hand, it aopears ~~at t:~e iatonnation ?resent~d ~~y the statistical ar.nual is less and less abundant: t:~e nunber ot pages = aas beea reduced r:on year ~o year, and the total loss can be pegoed 3C 24~ pages in- o years. 1974 1975 19i6 1977 1978 I979 ~eport 4eROrt Revort ~eport Re~ort Report Date of 1eQa1 filin~ 12 Sep 75 8 Se~ 76 11 Jul 77 17 JuI 78 10 Jul 79 3 Jul ~0 ~rint run (number ~ oi copie;;) 45,000 30,000 45,000 40,C00 ~5,000 ~O,OUO vurnber oipages 833 817 686 630 506 588 The ~resent article does not, r:~;cnt an exhaustive list of a~l the inior.nation ~hat i.s now nissing, and does not otrer a detailed analysis of c:~e nature of all the in- fo r.nation censored. It is attempted rather to seek, in the mass o~E c~ser,~tion~ t:::: we have ~een ab1E to collect, some homogeneous elements *hat ~ould make it possib:e t~ e:cplain t:e pr=sent attitude or the Soviet gover.~ment toward t::e publicacion o: ~tatistics. I. The Statistical Apparatus of the USS~ ' In the L'SSR, num~erical economic infox^nation relat:ve to the domestic economy gaes ~ ~hrougn a siagle network: the Cer..tral Department of Statistics, under the supervisi~- o: the Council of ~iinisters of the USSR. The statistical publications emanating fro~. chis adminis~ration are relatively varied: --The ar.aual statistical report of the USS~ (";Tarodnoe Khozjajstvo SSSR"~far.I9...~.. publisned ~ecween 6 and 9 mon:hs a:ter the end of tne year concerned. It should be pointed out, though, that certain users are privileged (ministries, certain insti-~ _ tutes, etc): ~hey receive the annual report as soon as it has be~n prepared, wl~ere- as ic i, zot available oi` the shei~ until 2 aonths atter its ?egal ~i?ing dat=. :~s :or shipments aoroad, they come even later (usually in Decemcer). --A sna11 annual report ("SSSR v Cifrakh v 19..." (The USSR in rigures ror 1.9...]; wnicl: ~resents in abridged form the principal�statistical date reported iater in - "varodnoe Z4ozjajstvo SSSZ." I~ has the advantage oi being available in Apri1, of having very aide circul.ation (2G0,000 cooies), and ot being ~ranslaced into severAl - Westera languages. . --The annual statisticd.l reports oi repuclics, publication or which takes somewhat = Ionger times than ior the national annual and the printiZgs of which are smaller. ror Westez~i researchers, access to t:~~m is therefore more uncertain and more diffi- - cu1t. --'L'he annual statistical reports of autonomous republics, oi autonomous regions a^d OL regions~ G~1~IL1S10I7 O~ +Jt11CF'1 1S e~~en IDOr�_ Il~l~?d and D~2~3~3tlOII Jt W~'liC:l quires even more ti~e. 3 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 I ~ ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ --The anriual sector r�r:~orts ("The Pooulation of t:~e USSR," "Trans~ort and Communica- ~ tions in the JSSR," "Iadustry in t'~e USSR," "Construction in the USS~," "Soviet ~ Domestic Co~mnerce," ~"Labor in the USSR," "The ~griculture o= the USSR," "Vational Education, Science and Culture in the USSR," etc;; but publication of a number o~ these works seems to have been suspe~ded in recenc years, unless they have gone to a zar narrower di`f~.:sion category and are now reser~~ed only to certain depart- mencs. I --A mont:~!y review ("~iestnik Statistiki"), in which partial statistics are published ' in apper~dixes and in no particular order Cindustrial production, data on agricul- _ ture, investWent, etc).- These data are for the most part complementary to chose furnished in the annual national statistical report. They also oLfer the advantage of appearing rapidl;~: certain results trom tze p:sst year are published in :iarch. In addiCion to these various publications, the Cent:al Department of Statistics also commur.~cat~s in the daily and weekl~ press the principal numberical targets of the ~-year and annual plans as well as, at the end of the operational year, the results achieved ia each ot the sectors or activity. 1. ::om Sacrecy to Statistical Poverty It is generally granted that the stati.stics published b;~ ~he Central Department o~ Statistics are r.ot diiferent =rom those the econ~mic otficials and the ~?an- ne~cs at t~e time that the plans are worked out; but in the statistics made public, there ar~ obviously omissions whose nature leaves no doubt as to the reasons ior the aosences. Ia several i:idustrial sectors more or less direct?y c:onnecLed to the de- iense industry, infor,nation is nil: thus there are no data avilabLe on the capacities and production figures of the aeronautical industr�~, including th~=.civ=i sector, on naval const:uction, the electronics industry ~components, computers and related - equipment}, on the manufacture of rubbez~, the refining of oil, and all reserves and production of nonferraus metals and ferroa~loys, without exceotion. it should also be no~ted that the USSR has a law on secrecy of information dating from 28 April 195~ that lists all inforaation coming under state secrecy, In addxtion to information of a ailitar~ character, the law ~oncerns the reserves of radioactive elemenCs and the mi~i:g o~ u:anium, as wel~ as the enterprises that da the processing of it, the re- serves and production of nonrerrous, rare~and precious metals, diamonds and piezo- elect:ic metals, and the resezves of oil, production of which comes under the Minis- ter of ~etroleum Industry. It also relates to the fareign-exchange reserves, the ~alance oL oayments zzid the stocks of precious metals and stones. The Council o~ _ Ministers may add to this list; nothing enables one to say that it has been added to sizce its ?romulgation, but at least certain signs suggest that the notion of state se~rzc~ has been broadened. Bulgaria, in =act, has just published a new law on t'~e sec:ec~ of informat~on; i~s area of apQlication is far broader *_han that of the Sov~- et law o~ 1956, and iC extends in particular to certain infor.nation that has c?ased to be puolished in the USS~. One is tempted to think that Bulgaria's initiative i~ _ not pecu?iar to it but rather falls into the framework oz a concerted policy wit:i: the CE:'~ f,Council for ~'conomic ;~utual ~ssistance~ . Vor have any nu~ericaZ data ever been provided on izdustrial accidents, dr~g add~c- tion, suicides. The statist~c~ relative to the monetary mass in circulation were published anly ior a ve r~ briet period, from 1928 to 1936, ~ 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ~NLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ' But there is something more serious t:~an these s~atistical "gaps." Indeed, the Sovi- et statistical as a whole nas turned away *rom its ver~ vocation, which i~ to be above all ~he venicle o= econonic infox~ation, ar.d this perversion doubtlessl~~ is largeiy r~sponsible ~or the fact that planning is so often deCached from r?alitv. ?'his, moreover, is whac the Poles have recentl~ not~d: Sy the adiaissien or the direc- tors ~heWselves, a good many of the erro~s~in decision co~itted by ~.'~eir predecessors are to be laid at the door of stacistics un~aithful to reality or to the ttolding-back ot info r.nation whose oublication would have caused social tensions, such as the cost- of-living indes, ~or example. '~is pnenomenon of disinforaation is not, to be sure~ based on a deliberate choice; but it is the logical outcome o= many years ct esces- sive centralization and bureauc:atxzation that have blocked all circi>>ation ot inior- mation between ;overnors and governed, Zt is hard to see how tne en~.ezprises accus- tomed to :ziding f4am~ their overseeiag organisms the e:~act figures for their produc- tion capacities, so as not to have plannizg objectives inposed on t:~em ~hat are too hi~n, would ?~and over to the statistical services in=orsiation far more indiscree[ (tur..ove:, produc;.ion personnel, investments, etc).1 :Soreover, even t~ough the sta- tis;.ical servic2s nave obvious i;,foraation links in the rsir.istries and ~.::~e various administrations, it is inplausible that they would be capaole, in so short a period of ~ime, ot ~rocessir.g such a mass of inf~rmation collected through agezts s~attered - over a particularly vast territory.2 Furthermore, why should the s~atistical ser- vices ~e ia~nune rrom t:~e absen~-eeism; negligence, carelessness and incempetence so _ often deaounced in tZe of~iciai statements when it is a~aCter oi explaining the lack o= success i:~ agriculcure, industr~, transpo:tation or const:uction, or the ~iscalcu- lations ot ~he administrations? � In the area oi statist~.cs, as in the other sectors of the economy, it is appropria~e also to stress *_he farce oi habit: apart from the fact that the number of data pub- Iished has increased quite considerably since the annual report ior 1950, apparently very few i~provements zave been made in the Soviet statistical aoparatus since t:^.at Cim~. The result of this is that the USSR, as also, ror that mat~er, its partaers in the C~IA, but with the exception of Czechoslovakia and Hungary, is quite ~ bit poorer - in gopd-quality statistical daca than are the maricet-economy developed countries-- :rhich is aot among the least of the paradoxes of a country wit:~ a"directed ecanomy." ~ The Soviet statistics seem on the whole to be done--without imply~ag t:~dt this repre- sents a deliberat~ choice--to cont:ol the execution of a plan rath2: than to enabie it to ~e ~roriced out or to ~uide decision-making. The low reliability of the Soviet statistics was very early brought to light by the ~merican Soviztologists, who nave tried to re~edy this defect b;~ up a paral=: 1eZ national accounting system, working out mod~ls based on their ow-a s~atistics,3 etc. Less well-icnown but more seziously accusatory is *_he defiance shown likewise by certaia Soviet researchers toward the statistics Furaished by thei: country's author- i=ies. Indeed, certain institutes, turning up their noses at the official dats. are said to be now basing their work, concerain~ mainly t:~e distribution of incomes, on their own samp2es and their own statistics.-~ 2. '"~:e `~ethodological ~fysteries ~~hen one has :ecourse to Soviet statist:cs, t~e first obstacle cne encounters is or a mecaodolog:cal na_ure: :ndeed, the deepest mystery shrouds t:~e :�i'_es ~overniag the preparat~.on o= t::em. iew ex~lanatory notes serve as an epiiogue to =:~e annual sta- _ ~is~ical rsDOr_, to be sure, ~ut they are of the most su~ar~ kind and 3o not 5 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~he clarirications that one would have a right to ~xpect. Is this an acknowledgemect of their uselessness or a concern to save paper? Ia any case, such r.otices were si~- oly lef-t. aataof th~ 197? annual. :hus one is com~letel;r igr.orant or the nature of the pr~ces �ised ~or evaluation o: C4e principal indicators. Since prices are supoosedly stable, t`::e indexes pres2nt ~nly minor variatioBS, wnich can always be justi~ied by administrative measures. ~io~�r it has been established, and even by certain.Soviet economists, that wholesale prices increase :egularLy by way of innovation, improvement of quality, or inc:ease in the objective costs of mining extraction, oil extraction, etc. iY~.ese rises are never registered iz the price indeses, and it is improbable that they are taken account or" in eva~uation of the various indicators either--all tne more so in that some of them even escape the control o~ the administration. By being based on a aear stability of :~hoiesale orices, the Soviet statistics can r.hus show iadustrial ;rowt'~, for exampi~, considerably higher t:~an it is in reality. Further~nore, c~rtain indicators are evaluat2d at cur:ent prices and ot:~ers in compar- ~ aole prices; but the statistical services keap carefully hidden t:~e me:hod that en- ables them ~o go from the on~~ to the others. T_t would seem that the comparable ?rices are established by tne aid ot a price izdex calculated on ~he oasis of a~ro- duct samo?~ whose composition is not known and the prices for ~rhich are quite obvi- ously those ~hat iigure ia the official schedules; but t:~is sample has little value since it is aot at al? necessary ior the products belonging ~o it to be actually available in the commercial networlc. It is doubtlessly revised oeriodically, and this could be one of the explanations for the corrections made, f.rom one annual re- port to another, in t5e series established in terms of comparable prices. Thus, fo: - exa~pl~, the rigures tor provision~ of everyday services co the population show, for the series as a whole, a drop oL 0.? percent if one,compares tne=data:.fuznisbe~ in i979 with those published in the annual reaort for 197$. It is therefore probable that a new sample was established in 1978 and that it encompasses services less e~- - pensive that those that were taken into account for the preeeding years. 3. T_he Deliberate Omissions ~'ne gaps in the statistical data and the de~ects o= the apparatus caanot be subjec~:d ~o exhaustive analysis here. We shall nonetheless gighlight the most notorious o= t:~ en . The JSSR's statistical annuals abo~:nd in pa=ticularly long series of indexes t'~at may 3o back to times well in the past,~such a.s 1913, 1928 or 1940, and that t:ace ~he evolution of the principal aggregates (Net :Vational Production, IndustrialProduction Offered, Agricultural ?roduction, fixed capital, etc). The successive series ot in- dexes are connected to on: another by the chain-index method. It goes without saying that this type or data is wit:~out great interest, and in any case, unusable in its ~otalit~, since the contenc of the indexes necessarily c~anges over sa long a perioc _ aad one does not know how tr~ statistical se:vices update the situation. To take jusr one zxample, what can be the value of a growth table zor indsst::al production oi_ered be*_aeen 194p and 19i9 when the range of products oiiered has be~n entirely _ ~eoiaced? This is what 2love5~ humoYOUSly 9trzsses when 4e asks the question: how -~?ny DC-3's made in 1950 is the presentlq produced DC-9 equivalent to? In 1979, ~~e ~igure for agricultural production offerec: is stiil ca?cu?ated in 1973 prices, wnich aakes it ~ossible to overestimate this ir.dicator considerably. T:~us 6 ~ , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2447/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400454451-6 ' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY the ~~estern experts have calculated that by the aid aL this sta~istical manipulatio:~., the Soviets were able to annc~unce a 3-percent increase in the value of agricuitura'_ production in 1977, whereas it actually tell by 5 percent. Further.nore, the agric~l.- tural ~tatistics a.r~ on the whole inrlated in relat:on to r~ality. The quantities cereals ulti~acely usaole are lower than t:e volume ot the harrest as recorded in tl~e _ statistics. The:2 are several reasons for this: losses in transport and in storage, = especially high humidity rates for g:ains, etc, and depending on the year, sich losses represent zrom 10 to 1~ percent ~f the harvest. The distribution ar production among the various types of farming operations, as i~ appears ia the statistical annual, does not give an exact p=cture c~f the contributi:,n _ of the sma11 individual plot; in ~act, the figure for individual-plot production sold by the peasants ta the kolkhozes and to the sovichozes is accounted for by them as if t?~e production came ~:aan the cellective and state farming operat.i~ns. s Because o= thei: oartial and ambiguous cnaracter, the social stati,stics do not makc~ it possible to conduct very detailed investigations. The figure ~or *_he wor!cing gop- ula~ion is never given, so as to make impossible any precise calculaCion ot the per- sonnel stre~~gth of the ar~ed forces. All the statistics on industrial employment re~ late to "industrial productive personnel," but no indication is given about ~he di'- , ferent categories oi workers covered by this concept, and the distribution of t'~~ese oersonnel anong the di~~erent industrial branches, whzch was very incomplzte up 'to - 19;5, was ~limizated as oi 1976. ~ . The stat:stics on wages and incomes make impossible any comparison among the various occvpations, between men and women, between city-dwellers and rural-dwellers. As ~e- gards wages, in fact, ortily avera~es by branches are published; the ~aY ~E~~high-rank- ing officials is obviously not ~cnown. Finally, the data on the peasants' income f:om - rarming of their plots are particu~arly succinct: they are limited to a p~ercentage in the budg_t of a kolkhoz famil.y. As for income derived from other private forms of acti-~ity, the~? are .pass�~d over in complete silence. ZI. Iapoverishment of the Saviet Statistics . , ~ de~~~i~~ i~poverishme:it or t~e Soviet statistics has been obse rred sinc~ the mid- 1970's. T!~is ta~nd developed especially ~33C in 1976, and ta a les~er exte~t in 1977; and while some relative raspite could be detected in 1978, the movement gainec speed again in 1975. To be sure, not all the disappearances to be noted are oi equal , importance; while certain or them now prevent the Western researcher irom carrying on - the investigations he oreviously had in hand, at least on the basis ot Soviet sourczs, othe:s, on the contrary, are of such mi.nor :nterest that the~~ appear to t~ave no other aim than to lighten a voluminous compendium. 1. Results of a-Kethod o: ~mpirical rln.alysis Cur investigat~on has concerned essentially the national annual statistical ~eports, "~arndnoe :~hozjajst-~o SSS~" for 197.... We did a sy~t~matic comparison of the con- tent o~ the statistical annuals' tables for 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978 and 1979. d'his - work :ras ~e:en:.comp~icated considerably ~y the �requent ~odifications oi pres~entatie:. o~ the~ data and ttie c~oss-*"ire of the tables: as between one annual and another, var- ious tables a:e agoregated, ot::ers ar~~ brokea up-y statistics are put into dif~erent _ chapters. In order to follow t:~e evalution of a given index over several yea~s, the 7 - FOR OFFIC7AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL US~ ONLY ~destern researcher must in certain cases demonstrate ail the qualities oE a good de- tective. Thus, the indeses for growth of labor pr~ductivity in constxuction, ~ahich usually have their place at the beginning of the annual r~oort ia the chapter on gen- eral data, are in Che 19i8 and 1979 reports :ound in the chapter on oross for.nation ot fi:cee capi~al. The same is the case witn the indexes of g:owth oi labor produc- tiviry in agriculture, pushed back to ~he dgriculture chaoter, and so ~orth. The year ?975 was chosen as the rafe:ence ~oint, since it is ~he qear or [he Aelsir.- ki CESC [Conference on European Security and C~operatianj. It has also emer~ed thac a Iarg~ r.umber of data, including some of the most important on~s, etfectively disap�- peared bet~een 1975 and 19~76. This method, as empirical as it may be, has made it ~ossible to bring to light not only tne ~nantity and ~~e zature o= the information t:zat has been suppressed or, or. the contrarq, has not evPr aopeared, but also the dates when t:~ese modi:ications oc- curred. it emerges that the 1976 statistics are the ones ~aost heavil; afiected by the "purge." It was possible to cstablisn that 120 tables disappeared 'oet�aeen the I975 report and that of 197b; in addition, tae largest quantity or highl~ important data censored was noted :or the 1976 rzport. This annual is a somewhat special one because it ce?ebrates the 60th anniversary oi the revolution. It seems that the So- viet statistical servic~s took advantage of the occasion to suepress a:~umoer of tables and replace them with ot:~ers (68 "innovations"), most or which had raore to dc with propaganda than the economy; the table tracing the triumphant march of social- ism in the world" or the one that gives the aumber of mothers of ?arge families who have been decorated with the order oi maternal glory are the most cliaracteristic ex- amples of this. One might have ~hou~gnt that t!:~se "stat~stics" would have remained the appanage of the 1976 yearbook and that they had no ~ther purpose than to screen the "clean-QUt" operation carried out in 1976. But a number of the:n came up again in the 1979 annual: the t:iumphant march of socialism, the publishinc; of the wor4cs oi Marx, Engels an~. Lenin since the iastallation of Soviet oower, tk^.~ number of deputies to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR and to the Supreme Soviets of t:he republics, etc. In 1977, b~ more tables were eliminated; but the trend~see:ns t~ have slowed down in 1978, since there weFe only 23 disappeazances. For the 1979 annual, our investiga- tion had to be limited to the table titles and did not ext~nd to their content. vev- ert:zeiess, this simple overview broug~t out the continv.ancE. of a tender.c;~ t:~at now seems ineluctab?e. The year 1979, oi course, was an especially critical one from the economic point of view,6 and the ~irst situation bulletin3 emanatiag f:om the Central Department of Statistics hav~ already revealed the g~vei-iing authorities' retucEane~ to recogniae ehe seriousness of the situation. In the first place, the monthly in- dustrial-production reports were not published for the whe?2 tirst quarter ot 1979. Secondly, t:~e Central Department of Statistics has dicrarded a numaer of data--and not *_he least ones--:rom the annual results: smelt:z~z, ~ron ore, sulFuric acid, pap~r pulp, motorcycles, etc. Likewise, the production of praducts as important as metal- mil':ing ~achines and stamping ar.d forging equipment is given only in rubles, �.~hich destroys a large part of the interest of the results thus furni~hed. It ~ill have bzen necessary to await publicat~on of the 1979 annual :eport co know the productior: figures for these omit~ed:products--figures which.were previously available less than a mont:~ atter t~e end of the year concer*sed. ~lccordiag to our estimates, t:~e number of statistical disapoearances between the an- nual report.ior I975 and that ~or 19~9 comes to 15 percez~. This rigure nas a purely 8 FOR OFFICIAL U~E ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050051-6 ~ ~ FOR OFFI~IAL USE ONLY indicative value and does noc take account the e:c~ent of the losses that have eifectively been suffered. It would have been necessar~ to ~e able to weight eac:~ c,f - the suppressed data ia function o: their interest a�nd the use that could be made ~z them. Indeed, one fi~ds in the same basket as the "big disapoearazces" a whole pl~ai- ad of Antirely anodyne infor.aation, the suppression oi ~at~ich does not seem to cor:e- spond to any rational aim. 2. T?ze "Big Disapoearances" . The data relative to tn~ ~rincipal economic indicator, net national production (li~�- - erally, national incorae) were very extensively amputated in 1976 with tne eliminatior. of the structure of net national expenditure. Up to 1975, net :~ational productiom fzom the point of view of espendit~,:re ("aational ir.cone ut;lized") was apportiane~ between, on the one hand, household consumption and the cons~snption of the adminis- trations (the total or which forms thz consumption tund), and ~n t:ze other hand, t::~ net productive and nonproductive investments and the increasing of stocks (acc~,~ul�~~ tion zund). But since 19i6, the annual has Iimited itself to giving the ~vo~umes o"r the consumption and acc~,~ulation =unds without any further details. This dis~aa~~ear- - ancR has extremelv extensive implications. On the one. hand, the suppression ~f tne data r~elative to consumption now ?reveats one frem constructing, at least on zhe ba- - sis of the ScvieC statistics, the fourt!~ quadrant of a table or interi::du~trxal ex- changes that gives an i~nage ot the quantitative importance or the ~ina~mcial ~t~ows (in the broadest sense ~r the term--that is, ancompassing all t:~e operations t~~st lead ' a ~ransier of debits). ~ ~ Furthermore, the stzucture of national expenditure fur:~ished by the Soviet anciual re- _ port. up to 1975 made it ~ossible to estimate the Soviet Union's ~xpenditu~es for arn- ament. In efract, in Soviet nation3l accounting they are accour~ted ~~r nnder the headiags ralative to capital formation ("accumulation fund�" in the Soviet ~Era=- nology), and especial2y in the catego r~ entitled "increase of stocks." series of calculations made it possible, on the basis of these data, to iso'late the proportion of capital foraation for u~ilitary use. '*he other types of expenditures can be esti- mated--and this is st:ll t!^.e casz--ei::~er on tne basis of other headings of the anr_~- al statistical report (scientiiic :=search for military purposesy or on the basis or observation of the defease aoparatus (personnel and expenditures). Ze- course to these different methods made possible an overall evaluation of the Soviet ~?nion's ~ilitar~ expenditures, and had C~~s advantage of being ex~ressed directly in cur:ent rubles without goiag through haza:dous rsble-dollar conversiorzs, and oi be::n:� - able to be related Quite securel.y to net national production, because of the homoger.- ei~j ot the data~. The ~Iast I~portant Data That ~iave Disappeared f-om the JSS~'s :~,nnual Statistical Re- ports since i975 (and date aF last puolication) - uajor Aggregates _ - Structure oz aet national expendituze . 1375 - Breakdown by sectors o~ zet zational production irom poiat of V7.?~a OL ~rOduCt yaj$ - Comparison of c:ae national ~~come o: the USS~ and oi ~~reign count:ies ~evaluation or the :.ation~l incomes oz the foreign count:ies in ce~s of ~oviet accocnting and ia dollars) 1977 9 FOR U~FFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 ~ ~OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY �opulation - Population of the autcncmous republics, tfie.:autonomous regions, and the districts ' 197~' - Inrant mortality 1975 Indus ~r,~ - Product~on or oil by republics 19i~ --�roduct_on of naCural gas by republics 1975 - Production of coal by republics 1975 - Production oi cast iron by republics ~ 19T5 - Production ot steel by :epublics 1975 - Production of finished laminates by republics 1975 - Production of cement by republics 1975 Production of cotton fabrics, woolens, linen iabrics and silks , by repuolics 1975 - Production of ti:es, in terms of their use 1977 - Production of tract~rs, by type 1976 - Production of pap~r, by kind 1978 -~vezage annual.numbers of production personnel employed in the various branches of i^dustry 1~75 ~griculture - Principal indicators oi development of agriculture in the economic regions o= the USSR 1975 - Principal indicators of development of agriculture by autonomous - republics 1976 - State purchases of wheat, rye, and rice by republics . 1975 - Numcer of '~colkhozes and of sovkhozes and production of the principal R agricultural.products by autonomous region and national district 1976 -~iverage numbei of koikhoz homes and average area of kollchoz dields, - by kolkhoz I975 Transport - Trans~ort oi trave~lers by rail, by republics ~ 1975 - Traas~ort of goods and tzavelers by river, by repu~lics 1975 - Cost of traasport of goods by rail, by water, and by road 1975 - - Average time or use of freight cars 1975 Investmencs and Construction - Investaents by autonc~mous republics 1976 ?lacing of fixed capital in service by the kolkhozes, by re~ublics 197i - Invest~ents of tne sovichozes 1975 - Constructian of housing in the kolkho2es, by republics 1975 - Construction of housing by the real-estate cooperatives, byrepublics 1975 Labor - Average anaual number of blue~cc~llar and whice-c~llar workera, by autonomous republics, autanomous regiorts and national districts 19i6 - Average anaual numbers of blue-collar and waite-colla: wor!cers by brancaes of the economy and by repuclics :475 . 10 � FOIt OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICiAL USE ONLY ~etail Trade - Tu nzover of state and cooperative ~etail trade (includir.g :estaurants), by autonomous reoublics, autonomous regions and national districts 1976 -~auipment of the retail-trade organisms 1975 = ihe data on net nationai production from the ~oint of view of ~roduct were in their t~srn chosen as a target in 1979. In effect, the figures indic~ting tre contributic-~. ai the various sectors to creation of natio~ai produc*ion, as well as to creaJ.ion ~ross sociai production, disappeared ~rom the 1979 annua?. Thus, the only thing re- ~aining or the general'indicators of growth are sone overail figures and series of indeses that go back to the night of time. The Sovie[ statisticians nave also st:sck some heavy bLows iz t:~e area of rzginnal statistics. :~11 t'~e data relative to the 18 economic regions oi the USSR or to the 3dIIl~istrative regions other than the federated republics were suppressed either in 19%6 or ia 1977: population by autonomous republic, autononous region and aational disc:ict (disappeared in 1977); rate o� growth of industrial production b~ republic aad by aconomic region (1976); principal indicators oi development or agricuiture in the econumic r~gions of t4e USSR (1976); pnincipal indicat~rs o= development ot agri- :.ulture oy autonomous republic (1976); number oE kolkhoaes and of sovk:~ozes and pro- duc~ion or the princi~al agricultural products by autonomous region and naCianal di=- tri.ct (1977); invest~e:~ts by autonomous republic (1977); etc.. In the 1977 a~nual, - t:~ere wer~ already ao more data on the economic regions. Furt:tie~ore, the statistics relative to the federated republics have th~~selves beer. heavily ourged. I[ shou.ld be noted also that this operation was carried out. entirely within the framework of the 19i6 statistical annual; and the very few repub~ic;sta-_ t:sti:.s t;~at escaped it under~rent a new offensive in 1979. Thus there �eased eo ap- . ~ear as oz t:~at date the forest resources by republic, the ra~ing o� �--the :con- structi.on and assembly organizations according to volume of work done, by republic, as �eli as the ra:iking of tne construction trusts, by *eoublic. '~e ~re.:kdown by re~ublic or the preduction of a large r.umoer ot industrial producta disaopeared ~rom t:~e US5R's statistica2 annual fDr'.1?76: oil, oas, coal, cast iron, steei, finished laminates, ce:.n~nt, masoniy ~ateziais, cotton iacrics, ~aoolens, liner. ~abric;, silks. The apportionment of the statistics by republic has been ~liminate:.� in ccher a:eas also_ We can cite by way ot example the breakdown ~f natural prair~~s by use~s, ~y :e~ublic; the number o= specialists with hig?~er or secondar,r spec~a~iz:.d traiaing employed in the kalkhozes, the sovkhazes, the auxiliary agricultural enter- a~ises and ot::ers, by republic; trans~ort of travelers by rail by republic; t;~e aver- age a:~nual nuabers of blue-collar and white-collar wor!cers by bran~!: vz ~he economy _ and 5y repub?ic; the numbe: of kinde:gartens and nurse ^~-icind~r,3artens bv republic, 2tc. ' tievertheless, it nas been noted that ~hese various data have not a~i disappeared coc~-- ?1�tely `:om t'~e statistical apparatus ot the USSR; a number of them have gcne a ~~WL~~? ai~_'1S1CP.~~ categor'~ ~~:lfl U$$R~ s annt:31 9Cd~1S~1Cd1 *?DQr~~ CO C::dC pL ~~~lIIl1tEC ::i�usicn" (statistical annLals for repub?ics).~ :t nas :ot oee~ 2ossioie to ~.aka ~ _ s~s~e~atic comparison aetween the data ava:tlable in t:~e "Yarodnoe :thozjajst-~o SSSZ" arid those t;~ae are provided in the reoubli~ ar.nuals, iaasmuch as ~or- a ac.~ber-:eF. ~e- ~ab~:cs ae did r.ot ha�~e annuals available for earlier ~San ~975, while :or others, 11 ~ FOR OFF~~C[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000400050051-6 ~ FOR ~:~FICIAL USE aNLY the range o= annual reoorta avai~able bet~Neen 1�75 aad 1973 is orten liaited to one or two wor~cs . _ Therefore, our investigatir~n could only 11 :epubiic annua~s (F.zaer.ated Soviet Socialist Reoublic or ~ussia, Ukraine, Byelorussia, La~via, i,ithuania, ~stonia, ;~r- menia, :lzeroaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, T_ajikstan), ar.d it was limit~d to the i,z- dustrial ~roducts ror wnich the praduction cigure by r~public ~aas elimin~ted trom ch~ "Varodnoe {nozjajstvo SSSR." It emerged that certain ot the repu~lic annuals studie~.~ continued beyond 1975 the publication of data that had disapoeared from the national annual. Thus, coal production ~jas still given by t::e annuals of the rederated Soviet Socialist ~epuolic or 2ussia (in 1978), or tne Uk:aine (1978), and or :tazakhscan (1978), praduction ot steel and of tinished lami^.ates was in t~e annuals of the Fed- erated Sovie[ Socialist Republic of Russia and of the Uk:aine, production of masonr;: materials was in the annuals tor ~zerbaijan (1976), ot Uzbekistan ;1978), ot Latvi.a (1977) ar.d or Lit!~uania (1978), but it disappeared from :he Zazaknstan annual for 1978. Thus, =or these products it is sti11 possible to constrsct a pa=tial table o"r the geograohic distri~ution of production. . The case of ~il and oi gas is to be set aside because or the absence or iaterest fcr the data that have continued to be published. We note aiso~that for oil, the test t:~at ~zas be~n ~ade =s significant, since the aissing annuals conce_^.: republics that produce practically none (but with che exception of Turkmenia). Of a?1 the republic annuals, only tnat of the Federated Soviet Socialist Republic of Russia continues to furnish oi?-production data beyond 1975 (509�million tons ia 1977, or 89.1 percenC ef total production), but without giving.any details about the contributions of the principal estraction sites (especially Ural-Jolga, western Sibe:ia). On che other hand, the annuals for the Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have ceased to publisn their oi1-~roduction figures. The situation is the same for natural gas, for which only the production of the Federated Soviet Socialist Republic of Russia is known (49.9 percent or total production). :ioreover, thij de:iciency oi iniormatioa regard- ing gas is difficult to understand, since it is known that the Soviets have the hab3t or pubiishing regularlj, in their specialized reviews, the state of the gas reserve~ and t:~eir geographic distribution as well as a good many other very detailed data. ~ r"inally, the produc~ion statistics for a nuaber of products of very unequal int~rest have t~tally disappear_d: such is the case wit'~ cast i:on, cemeac, and various cata- gories of Eacrics. . 3. ~,ttempts at ~x~lanation it ~aould be illusory to hope to find a siagle and fLlly satis:actor~ explanation fo=� a11 of *_he disappearances. It seems obvious that the censor o= Soviet statistics has not iollowed a single guideline and that there are also di�~erent levels in t'~e deci- sion-makizg process. TN'hile it seems vezy likelj that certain oz these disapo.earanc~:. cor~espond to a deliberate policq, otaers,. entirely insignificant ones, remain inex- plicable; quite obviously, there is in the decision-~aking process in the USS~ a lev- ei below :~nic?~ one caraot ~ind any rationalit~~ in the choices maZe. ,tever~~eless, i~ goes w~~;~out saying that t:~e impovzr~sh~ent ot Soviet statistics cannot be an isolated Yne:~omenon and thaC ~t falls into a genaral cancex=. Vow one c+bser~es t:~~t ~att-~r a pnase or opening-up to the outside, t5e USSR went back, in tn~ mide-1970's, to a certain ~urZing-in on itsel:. This tendency is to be seen quite 12 ~ FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400050051-6 FOR OF~tCIAL USE OT~LY clearly in Soviet Eoreign-trade poli=y: starting ir: 1974, the USSR has limited its imports by selecting its purchase;, in strong foreign currencies ~o the ad~zantage or i~s socialist partners. Tris new tack taicen in the liSSR's trade policy--explained by the 5oviets as d~se to the reappearance of autarchic tendencies in t:~P ~destern coun- ~ t:ies affected by the crisis--~oubtlessly has internal rsasons also. Znde~d, sinc~ the oeginning of the 1970's che Soviet ~ovez�ament has presented more than ever the ~ image oi a monolithic regime that bri:ngs together at t:~e very center of decision--~atc~ iag the variaus institutions constituted by the parCy, t:~e armed forces and the po- Iice. For only the second time in all the history of the USSc2, the a~ed forces were in I97: received into the Politburo in the person of the r~iaister of defense. In parallel with this, Leonid Brezhnev, sECretary generai of the party, was invested with the title of Marshall of t:~e JSSR and he affirmed himself as sunrene commander ~f. the armed iorces. It ~~rill not be 3ttempted here to throw li~ht oa the type oz re- lations--very complex ones, for rhat matter--that link the party and the armed forces; but it is nonetheless i~portant to stress the ract chat that the Soviet gov- ernmenc has now entered a phase of.stiffening. Is this f:om the influence of the IIilitary and police apparatuses, or a natural evolution? In any case, the repressi.or. of in~ernal dissidence has hardened considerably in the last decade. Likewise, vis- a-vis tr.e outside world the USSR has slipped from the openness dictated by detente to isolationism accompanied. by an eYpansionist policy in increasingly dzversified che- atres oi operations. rf one is to believe the Soviet propaqanda, this new attitude adoated by the USSR has been caused by the lack or benevolence now shown to it by c:~e ~:estern countries, the L'nit~d States in particular. Feeling.threatened and bes~eged; rhe USSR would thus be taken to have begun a response movement that has resulted in particular in the gradual shutting-ofi of the ~-EIoW: of iafornation. Finally, the taste for sec:ecy that is usual in the military probably has something to do with th~ nalt in t:~e publication of substantive information that could have contributed to a deepening of the.rNestera observers' knowledge of ~he USSR. in addition, the middle of the 1970's also marlced for the USSR the end oF a certain economic e:cpansion and an aggravation of t~e difficulties thar previously had been Lazent. It is probable that in the face of Chis new situation, the Soviet official~ :eacted in the same way as ir. the 1?50's by purely and simply stopping the publica- tion of un=avorab!e data. Zadeed, in t'~e USSR ~ore than elsewhere, statistics are ~ ?raFaganda tool to be used ~n domestic and international public opinion. T;z~ ation ot a n~ber of figures in the results of the 1979 annual plan--figur~s that aere ext:emely poor ia most sectors and were published~by the press in I?80--is sig- ni`ican~ iz ~his regard. ~e statistzcal services even used an especially c:sde a=-- ~i~ice: ia order not to stress the multiple appearance of miaus signs, they broice with traditiou by not giving, in the Iists of principal zndustrial producti~n, t5e races o~ variation from t::e preceding year. 'ihe same 3ppears to be the case with the elimination of the regional scatisti.cs--an eii~inatzon tha~ could aell mask the dissonances of a territorial-develooment polic;~ ~nose aim is r.evertheless, according to the Soviet officials, to promote nar.non.iot:s development of all the regions of the covztry. Bv anocher hypothesis, less disfavorable to the Soviet Union, the st:tistical ser~- ices have carried out a decentralization ~f infor~ation by handing over a part of che aational annual report to the regiona~ or sectorial annuals. Such an operati.on non2- thei~ss ~~plies, of course, t:~at such inzormation loses a good part o~ its audienc~, ~i: ce the regi~tlal and sectorial annual3 have far more li~ited di`~~.sion t:~an C5e 13 FOR OFFIC[AL USF ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450051-6 FOR O~FICIAL USE ONLY _"yarodr.oe ~hoz;ajstvo S~SR." c:om this one could also ex~lain t;~e weakeningoL the cnapt~rs on agriculCure and on tae ~opularion by the preparation or an agricul- tural annual report, the iaminent ~ublic~tion of whicn c:as beer. announced, and 'oy the preparation or ~he derinitive resul[s of the 1979 census, which should be published at the be~inaiz~ oE 1981. It is true that in t:~e an:?ua: for 1979, the chapter on "Territory and Population" is distinctly ftiller than in t;~e previous years; i:ertain informat~en :.s:~f a new cnaracter by camparisen wich the demog-aphic data usually cemmunica;.ed, ~,ahile, on the contrar~, ocher iarormatioci that had ceased to appear since 1975 has been reescablished. It should be strssse~+, though, that the results of the ~receding census or" 1970, pt�.blished in the annual for 1971, were boCh more = co~uplete and more de*_ailed. And in a general way, it nas been noted t:~at although the tecnniques or gathering and processing of the data have nade considerable pr~- gzess, t;zere is presentl~ lass infor~ation availabl~ a~out t`~is census than at the same pe:iod ~ ,~ears ago. - Other ele~e:!;s are also o~ such a nature as to ~aeaken the nypothesis oi a decentral- ization ot statistics. Qn the one hand, the data that aave disappeared from the na-- tional annual nave also been eliminated in the republ:c annuals, or a~t least in most or tnem. 4n ~he other hand, the several sectorial annuals that ~aere avaiiable to us (in particuiar, an annual on the population and one on c:ansoor*_ and c~mmunications; either ceased ~o appear in 1975 or ~~ere eliminated, as or thac year, rrom the ?ist of wor~cs ahosa ~ublication is announed abroad. The va:ious hypotheses that have been oi~ered ara only attempts at explaining an ob- jeccive ~act: the impoverishment or economic information of Soviet ori.din. \everthe- _ less, we ~iave conside:ed it important to stress the degree Co which the rise of this pher.or~enon and rhe development or it in recent years seems to echo t!:e evolution or "~vie~ policy, both internal and e:c*_ernal. Evolution of Soviet Foreign-Trade 3tatistics (by Anita Ti:aspolsky) The ~orei~~z-t:ade statistics of the Soviet Union consti~tut2 ar. entity distinct frcm the ot~e- Soviet statistics. P:epared in a dif~erent f:amework from that of the Cen- - t_a:. Depa.t~ent of Statistics, c'~e~~ cannot be compared wit5 the data relat'ng to the domes~i: aconamy: the monetary units dirrer~rundamentally. The "~orei3.^.-sxchange" unit cr a~count for forei3n-trade s~a~istics cannot ~e compared to Che domestic ruble.~ another difference that scarcely per~nits comparison is the product nemencl~:-- tur~, ani.:a in the case of trade operations leans toward the end-use aspect c~f the product c:,nsidered. Desnit~ ~'~ese essential di`:erences, one notes that since 1975 there has been an en- = tiiely ?arallel evolution b~tween tae domestic statistics and those~oL foreign trade. Overa'_1, ~n S2a3 the same phenomenon of a regression of oizicial intormation. , What is t:-~e scope of the disappearances from the forei3n--trade statistics? rr'hat art~ *_he a:eas ar ~roduc[s a~fected? What ar~.iments can one present to es~lain the dete:- ioration one notes betweeci 1975 and 1979? Most o: the theses advanced in an attemot *_a unCersta~d ~yis ~henomenon in t:~e intarnal statistics the national ecotiomy a:e doubtlessl~ valid in the case of ~~e ~oreign-trade statistics. 3ut beyond t:~ese es- plar.ations, or.~ers seem to be more specific to a c?ass of infor.r:at.~.~n ~hat couid ;.na~ca it possibl? ~o detect the Soviet Union's intenational ~olicy. ` 14 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPR~VED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050051-6 _ ' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY If one compares the o==i.cial annual reoort of t:ade fo: 1978 and that ior the year 1975, or.e noCes an evolution that is distur~ing to say the least, and which at~ ~irst si~ht sz~as to :un a~ainst the commitments made b;r the Sovizt Union, jointiy with the states participating in the ~:elsinki Con~crenc~ on Eurooe3n Security and Go- ooeration. _ 'The Implenentation o= t!~e Helsinki Final ~ct T;~e Fina? :~c.t ~second basket) of 1 August 1975 stipula*_ed, in Che chapter on foreign - eschanges, ttiat the partic.zpating states committed ~hemselves ~o encouraging "~he ~ublication and difiusion of economic and trade infora~ation at regular ir.tervals anc ~ ~ait~in ~the:best times possible--in particular: --...The s~atistics on icreign trade, wor!ced out on t'~e ~asis of classi~ication~ com- ' parable to one anot!~eT, including breakd.o*~n by product wit:~ indic3tion of volumes and values, as well as the countries of origin or destization. --the laws and regulations concerning foreign t=ade.... - --Gt:~er ~nror.nation oE such a nature as to aid businessmen in their coffinercial con- taccs--~or ~:cample, the ?eriodic summaries, the Iists, and when it ?roves posaible, the organigrams oi ~he firms and organizations involved in for~i6n t:ade. 'I'he states ex;,.ress~d the desi:e to "take advantage of the possibilities oz~ered by the competane izternationa? organizations, and in ~articular the United ~Ja~ions ~:co- nomic Coc~nission for Eu:ope, in order to implement the pravisions of tne final docu- ~ents or Che Conrer.:nce." :~nd since 1?77, the "cEC's Trade Development Committ~e, - o= whose ~ur_ctions is to collec:, publish and diffuse infors~ation. whose objective :.s to create bette: canditions for developing trade,9 has been discussiag these probl~W~ - in tha course oi its annual sessions. " :Iore particularly, the Co~ittee has sought to set up a multilateral system er,ablin~ each counr_ry to give notice of the laws and regulations concer:~ing roreisn trade,and the changes that~ight come about ia this area. It would seem, ~hougn, t:~at the ~asz~:-~ ccunt~ies' izte:est in establisniag suca a system is not so ?ively as the Coc~az C tee ;,ad hoped . 10 Certai:~ oover::nents have transmit.ted lists or sources of fnreig~-~ra~e za::o=:,~ation ~.rnicz t7e.~ couid ~ake available to the Secretariat of the L:C. i'::is is cae case with 3ulgaria and ~oland. Others, such as Switzerland, Noraay, the Uni~ed States and t:~~ :3G; have subm~tted proposals for improving the conditions oL" iafo r.nat~on. 3ut there do aot seem to have oeen any important sequeYs to this work. :~!or2ove:, ~ae few proposals _�or improving and har~nonizing foreign-trade statistics are c~miag essentially ~:om Western countries--?Vorway, the United States, etc. 'i'he r"3G, anica in ~ts ofricial sta~tistics daes not even distinguish exports ar.d i~ports, is asking zor broader information on the restrictions, p=oh~bitions, ta~;- es and suos~d~~s on o: :or exportation and impvrtation, on the long-te~ and medium- inves:aier.t programs cf _h~ gove~ments and the private .�i~s, and on t:~e ~ro- sp~ctzve data *_:~at make i~ possi~le ~o trac~ tZe economic and ~onetar~ ~oiicies o~ =ae count:ies. 'i5.e USSR seems to have scarcely ~ade any a~pearance w-it:~in that _ ~ amewo r'.:. 15 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400050051-6 FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY In tnE area oz :oreign-trade statistics, the wor'~c is even less advanced. It is oro- posed here to examine the case ot the L'SS~ and to raise questions about the evolutic~~. ooserved in the USSR'~ oificial roreign-trade statistics. wa~ one speak of ~rogress? What inter~racacion :.s to be placed ~n ~hE disappearance of certain headings'? I. ~e Sov~et Starist_cs on :or~ign Trade _ The S~urces The tor~ign eYC!~anges o; the Soviet Union can be studied on t:~e oasis of sources issuing fro~ :nternational and national organizations. TY:e sources, wnich themselves present data of Saviec origiz, are rela-- ~ively ~ea in r.umbe:.11 'I'hey are mainly the "L'nited vations '~onthly 3ulletin of Sta- tistics," wnicn once a year publishes th e exchanges ot the planned-economy countrie~; '~he annuai G~TT (General ~greement on Tariffs and Trade) publication "Inter:~acionai Trade in comprisir.g a special chap ter on the trade of the countries of the ~ast. These tao publications nake it po ssible, at an. aggregate level, to make inter - national COtI7D3risons by product group for ~the USSR. 3ut they do not furnish daCa by oroduct ar.d by ~ount:~. '"he same is the case aith the annual re~ort o� the C^~fA, "Stakis~=ces~cij ~zhegodnik Stran Chlenov SEV," published 2vez~~ year since 1971, wh~.c`~. gives only suia:nary indications for forei gn trade: total value, breakdown by zones, overall anpcr,tiociment by products. For Che USSR, the omission one notes in the Sovi- et o*_`icial annual reoort are found also in these international sources. The USS~ regularly publisnes annual and quarterly national statistics on �oreiga trade ir. the nonthly review VNESHNY~Y?, TORGOVLYa. It appears in five languages: Rus- sian, rrench, German, English and Spanis h. This organ of the USSR's :Iinistry ar ror- eign Trade ins~rts four times a year a s ection devoted to the quarterly fo=eign~tra~:: statistics, broken dow~n by caunt:y group and by country. These statistics arP avail- able we11 before the foreign-trade annua ~ report comes out. The annual report ~or the GSSR ("'tarodnoe i~hozjajstvo SSS?" fo r 19...), publi~shed by the Ceatral Depar~me~t of Statistics, is esppciall~ skimpy on �oreign trade. ?t presents a se?ection vr data in si;s tables, drawn :rom the forei gn-trade annual, at least since 1964. Iz addi~ion to t:~ese six tacles, there are t:~ree original tables on t:~e ~ruits oi 5c-- V1EC coopetation. This izvolves construction projects in which Che USSR has partic~- ~ated abrcad, and projects planned, by econamic branch and by countr-y. 'it:e most crmoiec~ docuiaeat by ~ar is the series of annual reports publisned bv the P:ir.cipai Departnent o: :.conomic Planning (Glavnoe Ekonomicheskoe Upravlenie) of t"e Ministr~ or ?oreign Trade o~ the USSR aad put out by�Statistika under t4e title oz "~Ineshnya;~a :orgovlya SSSR v 19... g." CFvreign Trade of the USScZ in '_9...). Indeec,. t&e iztroduction states t!~at this annua I" the most comDlete source o.� sta-*_isci~~' infor~~tion published ~n ~he USSR on roreign trade." ~aca ar.rua? c.ontains ~~e statistics :or the year statad in the ti:1e and t:~ose ox the 2receding veaa. Statistical revisions z=om one annual to the next are raXes, and t~e;~ usua? ly ~oncern ~~?ographic correct:ons . Z~'- Witn tlae~ exce~tion or a:,=w ~ro- ducts, t`.:e headings nave been ?racticall~ the same si~ce 1958,13 t:ze year of t'~e _ tzrst forei;~n-t:ade annual. But heading s have been disappearing increasiaglq since 1975. ~a certain ;~ears, the ;finistry of r"oreign Trade has published r~t:aspec~~~e - repc:~s (S co ~0 ;~ears), similar to the anauals, which generally cover 2 years.l 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400050051-6 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Thes~ ancuals ~resent the exchanges, in current prices, ait'~ breakdowns by count:y groups, by countries (104 in 1978), by oroduct groups (8 groups), a oaographic breaic- - dow-r. ror dertaia products (in value or in physical auan~it~es), and the eschanges b~r _ count~y and product in ter.ns of value and for a narrower selecti~n of products in - ohysical qu=*~t.ities. In addition, on~ will find ovezall indexes in ter~s or pliys!c,i1 volune, a breakd~w-n ef freight by type of transport, ia the ~orm ot very succiact data. The Techaiques of Preparatian of tne ~oreign-Trade Statisticsl5 The foreign-trade statistics are established on t3~e basis ot the accounting data of all the ex~ort-import organisms and the o.ther institutions involved i~ ioreign tr-ade. The t~ansport and merchandise documenLs are the basis of them. T::ey are turnished by the industrial, com~ercial and ot:~er enterprises that provide merchandise for expor- tation and by the foreign suppliers and carriers at the impor*_ation TevEl. :~t the ex~ortation level are recorded the merchandise of national production and the rzexpor~acions or products of foreign origin (general trade). At the importation level are recorded the merchandise of foreign origin intended for national consump- tion and for reexportation. Furthex~ore, the USSR rec.ords in its statistics at bot:~ the espor~ation and importation levels the merchandisa of foreign origin that is t~e object oi a transactioa abroad made by Soviet foreign-trade organizations and that :iG intended io: other foreign countries. In such case, the merchandise does not transit. the USSB at any time. ~ " ~ - - '�he Soviet statistics do not include: merchandise delivered without pa;Jment, under ~ the neading or foreign countries; merchandise going to the technical assis- - tance fund of the United Nations; foreign merchandise transiting ~'~e USSR; products intended ior expositions and fairs abroad or in the USSR; and the transactions that do not have a commercial character--for example, parcel post addressed to private parties, and passengers' bsggage. . '~e value ot nerchandise is established according to the value of the coatracts, ir. FOB-:OB ~rices. The�exchange rate used for conversion of foreign currencies into rubles is an of:icial rate established by the State Bank of the USS~ ror the co:res- ponding period. At t:~e exportation level, the partner country is the countr�~ of cor.- s~ucption of the ~roduct, and at ~he importation level, it is the countr;~ of produc- tion of t~e product, if the country of consumption or the countr~ ot producCion ca;:~- r.ot Se i~enti:ied, the liSS~ :ecords the country of first destination or of last ori- _ gin. ?'he-date o'r recording of a product is generally the date of its crossing the horder. ~'hese practices are not always comparable trn those of the '~ieste~ countrie~ cr even t:1Q82 oz the other socialist count:ies, and they explain in ~art the differ- ences to be observed f:om the s~atistics of the USSR's partaer countries.lo :he problea oi deter~ining the value oi merchandise is in fact far more com~Zicated tha:: is i.^.dicated in the methodological note that appears in the foreigr.-trade annual. - The Foreign-Trade Nomenclature :~?1 the statist~cs of the.Saviet foreign--trade annual are establsihed in cor_~or~ity - wi~: t~:e ini~ied aomenc~at~~re oi ioreign-t:ade merchandise, "~dinaya Tova~::aya :dome^- klatura V;.eshr.ey Torgo~~li," a numerical-code system for classi~ication o~ products. ~ . . 17 FOR OFFiCIAL US~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY This nomezcla~ure, published for the ~irst tiae in 195y, was repuoLished on seversi ~ccasiuns in 1~52 and 1971, with revisions introduced in 1962, in 19b7, and in 1975- - 1g77, T5e recapitulative reports ~or foreign trade 1�18-?956 ar.d 195�-1963 take them int6 account. The princi~le for elaboration of this nomencZature differs considEr- ably:trom t~at of the r.omenclatures by product used in t5e Nestarn countries as the Standard Iat2rnational Trade Classi~ication (S?TC), ~romul;at=_~ ~z 1950 and revised in 1960 and again in 197b. �xceot ~or certain nuances from count_y to country, the - unified zomenclature adopted by the countries o~ the ~as~ class~fies t!~e prod~acts mainly in function ot their final use. The first objective is to seDarate the pro- _ ducts for oroductive consumption from :hose intended for personal coasunption; nexc, t:~e nomenclature is detailed in function of the users. Thus, t;~e co~nt:ies o= the CEMA have t;~o distinct positions for a pump intended for a steel mill and a pump de- - livered to a cemer.t plant, even ii the pumps are identical. Live animals for slaugr- ter are in a Ci~f~rent position trom 'ive animals intendzd for raisiag, for zoos, or ror scienti~ic laboracories. It is obvious that establishiag ~ompa:isons ~aith the other c1a;;ai`~ca~ions o� the SITC or 3russels type becones problematic. ':here are concordance tables, tnough; but they can be only approx~mate.~7 -:he uni~ied CE:ir1 nomenclature of 1971,18 adopted in December 1969, involves a system ot 7-digit indicators in which the first digit indicates a major division; [he second a group, the t5ird a subgroup, the fourth and `ith f.igu:es a~roducc, and the si:ct`~ and a subposition. By way ot e.cample, ~he code 7 compr.ises [he "raw materi- a1s" ior production oi food products; 70 is cereals (iacluding groats); t00 is cer- eals (without ;roats); 70001 is wheat; 7000103 is hard wheat. In the 1971 classification there was a total of 9 divisions, ~7 groups, 317 subgroups, 3,945 pr~ducts and 8,293 subpositions; after the 1977 revision there appear to be, according to the calculacion done, ~ divisions, 57 groups, 320 subgroups, 4,074 pro- ducts (132 new positions and 3 removed), aad 9,178 subpositions (900 new positions and 1~ removed). It is th~ broadest classification of all the international nomea- clatures (cf Table 1). Table 1---:t~~ber of Positions~ in the Principal Foreign-'F:ade Classirications Vumber of Dig~ts for' Unified Yome.nclature of the C~A T Brussels S.:TC ror t~e:Fadication ~1962 1971 1977 ~B . 1. Principal divisions 9 9 9 ?0 21 2. Groups 58 57 57 56 99 _ 3. S~:bgroups 302 317 320 L77 P:oduc:s 3,890 3,945 ~,074 1,31? 1,097 7. Suooroducts 6,238 $,293 9,178 ~ not applicable * (expansion unknown] 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450051-6 FOR UFFICIAL USE ONLY 5esides the nine major divisions of t~e nomenclature, there is a series or operatio;:~ of a productive character that are :ecorded as trade but do not ~ig~ire in the ~nnua~ reports, except (as published] t:~e printing of books, oanphlets and advertisir.g ma- te:ial and snip repai:. In interzational-t:ade practice, these operations ror the most part are generalTy recorded in the balance of cur:ent operations as se:vices (except zor the group~ O5, 07, 09100). This operation, entitled "ooerations or a praductive character not ralling iato divisions 1-9," is gi~~en as an appendi;c :o the nomenclature with a zero as indicator. In 1971, it c~mprised 9 groups (2 digits) anc _ i3 "products" (5 digits). O1. Patents, licenses, know-hoc~ 02. Design aad research work G3. :~ssembly and constructian work 04. ~'?chnical cnanagement and control O5. Zepairs _ ~ncluding: 05300 ship re~air ' 06. Leasings and concessions 07. Improving and :inisning 08. ~pecialist missions for t:aining o= cadres 09. Other ser~~ices or a oroductive character :ZCludizg: 09100 ?:inting ot books, pamehlets,^g material; ~ became o997~ in 1976. '~e Residua The richness of this nomenclature does not, however, imply ~hat all the rositions a-= utilized==far from it. The foreign-trade annuals provide a wide but inconplete "choice" of headings. ~ significant volume of trade can be.identi_�ied (as ~ub . lished]. The term "residuua" designates the value of the t=ade that does not appe~_~ in the annuals but that can be cal~ulated as the difference between the ~otal amoun~ ~ o~ t:~e exchanges, wh.ich includes the residua, and the sum oz all the identified ele- ~ents that make it up. The annual does not have any heading for "miscellaneo~is" or "other." ~ residuum of products not identified or of councries may b~ involved. i^.zus, in [ne "machinery, equipment and means of transport" category, the part not b*oicen down by ~ype of maczine re~resents f:om 9`0 17 percen~ of total ex~orts anc f:om 2 to 4 percent of imports, dependiag on the year. For cer.tain countries and csr~aia years, this proportion can be higher than 50 percent. 3esidua. are found at a?1 1eve~s: ~roups, subgroups, etc. One can in iact distinguist~ tao bz; "residua" as 3.L. Kostinsky does.l9 ~e residuum of the machinery and equipment category--The annual gives no data for ~otal espor:s and im~orts oi metalworking equipmenC (10), energy equipment (:1), e~uipment for the chemical,..~cod and papez, an~ consGruction indust~ies (].51, commun- ications eauipment (1~8), or for transport ~I9). At t;ze importation level, thexe ~ystematic lack of data for equi~ment and material ior complete plants (16~, for ag-- ricultural equipment anc tractors (18), for ae:onautical materiel and ai:planes (~93). ~t the exporta[zon ?evel, data are~ never given For ~iaing and pE~troleiun =euipment ~12), and since 1966, for industrial diamonds (175). 'I'?:e exis:ence oi a : ~ow can be e~zid2nced ~v ~:~e USS~' s oartzer cour~tries and r_otabl j by the _~t!~e: curo-- ~ean socia?ist countries. ].9 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY - The total :esidusm--This is the biggest, and it remains ver~ dirficult to identi~;~. It results rr~m the diiierence between total trade and t~e sum o: the ~lements figur- - in t:~e ar.nual, eit:~er by product group or by count:~ ~roup. The sum o*the products reveals a residuum that represents 5 to 6 percer.t or the USS~'s imoorts and 23 to ?i percent of esports. The studies done on t'~is suojecC~~ attribute this residuua to t:~e exportations of precious ~etals, diamonds, radioact=ve isotopes and amorphous chemical products, to ~ertain food prod~.:cts ~Qeat, f~sh), and in partic~.~lar, to the sale oi certain military ~a~eriel that go into che overall fig- , ures (certain raw materials and intermediate products, construction nateri.alls, etc; - The ~otal..~or--tb~-,~^~ y supplies apoears to represent about 1.2 to 1.5 percent of exports, Ir, ~ac'_ iulk of military m.3zeriel does not apoear in ~he uni_`ied nomenciature c:_ ~:o~- . :.~.~stitute merchar.dise_ in the proper sense. Mo.�~over, a ~ar~ of ~he :~,:~;du,...�.: ~~~*lessly to be attributed to the"zero"~osi~ion. ~t the i~porZ ci~�� ;-~'-c; w, . numoer of~isszng products includes ores and ore conc~n- trates (urani~~�,` .ei .r .~�~~~ducts ot a military character, and doubtlessly some "oa- erations" os a~~:ductive character also. ~ � + In ~:~e COCdl :or the countries, the residuum i.s appareat in an approximate way in th~ USS2' s exports to the T:zird i~lorld: 40 to SO percent of e:cports can:~ot be broken dow-n by country in the trade with this zone. :foreover, the list oi p:oducts given Lar each coLntry is not e:shaustive: at both the exportation and importation levels, as muc:~ as ~0 percent or more of t~e USSR's total exports may be nissing. In 1975, Gor example, only about 87 percent of the trade with the GDR and Czechoslovakia could be identified, 58 percent of exports to Belgium, 96 perc~nt of those to France, 64 per- cent to Iraq, 50 percent to Indonesia, and 43 percent to Burma. Quite obvieusly, the Soviet foreign-trade statistics have great imprecisions snd nu-- nerous shadowy areas. ?,nd it was possible to hope that the co~itments made by the L?SSR at helsinki would make it possible to resolve a nusnber or uncertaizties, at lea~t.~:~?art, and to fili in some gaps. - :Z. ~e Evolution o~f the USSR's Official Foreign-Trade Statis:ics _ T"ne uet:~odological 2pproach ~ Desc:i~tion, even if sLaamary, of the Soviet foreign-trade statistzcs is not useless. The ract is that before one can talk abouc evolution of foreign trade, and especially in order to interpret it, one has to be able to deter.nine the "quality" of tiie ini- tial produc~. I:zis per.aits more correct evaluatiorc of the "gains" or "Iosses." G;e shall l~~it curselves here to establishing a comparison of the ofiicial annual re- por:s--t'.:e most completz tool--of the USSR's foreign t~ade. ^_'he statistics for t:~e year 1975 (annual report published in 1976) were chosen as tne reference year. The most ~ecent annual repor~ available at the time of the present study, in March 1g80; is t:~at 1973 (published in :979). Systematic compa:ison, table by table, permits a Zumber of observations. Since that time, it has been possible to suppleaent the obse.r~a~:ons, a:ter t^e a~pearance in 1980 of the annual re~or: for 1�7?. Ob~er~ations ~ere made ar several levels in an attempt to 3:asa t:~e scope o~ t:~e changes that nave occurred siace 1975: 20 ~OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400050051-6 ' FOR OFF(CIAL USE ONLY --simr,le comparison of the table headings --the variatioas at the 1eve1 of the nomenclatur=_ --the variations at the level of the residua Comparison of the Table Headings Ttie Disappearances T:ie Lirst observation that must be made concerns the very volume of the annual re- pvrt. :~s Ta~le 2 shows, the number of pages has decreased coasiderably since 1975, g~ing =rom 314 pages for the year 1975 to 286 pages for 1979 (published in 1980)--- - d~wn 8.9 p~rcent. Qn the other hand, the print run is gaing un and the price has oone dewn, both for the paperba~~= edition, which is t:~e first to come out, and for the harcbound edition. T:~e annual report is coming out :aster, and is now issued at t::e end of ;Iarch instead o~ in April. However, it is relatively difficult to obtai~ it abroad before :~ugust or September by the conventio~sal book-acquisition methods ~ (purcnase or exchange). The dec:ease in the number of oages is explained by tZ~e disappeas~ance of a table, and espec:all~, of numerous headings. We refer to Table XVI, w~ich in 1975 gave in par- _ aliel t:~e production, exportation and importation of the ~rincipal merchandise, in pnysical quantities for 2 years. The production figures had come out of the USSR's small statistical annual "The USSR in Figures in 19...." This relatively succinct table r~ade it possible to estimate apparent consumption (real consumption plus stocics .and losses) for 33 essential products such as machine-tools for metalworking, excava- tors, tractors, electric locomotives, passenger cars, trucks, touring vehicles, bus- ~s, crude oil, iron ore, cast iron, stesl pipe, cement, glass, paper, cardboard, ~ea:., snoes, refrigerators, cameras, television sets, etc. Table 2--T.he USS?t's Annual Foreign-Trade Reports 19'i0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Pa;es 298' 316 314 314 311 286 287 286 Princ run � . (copies) 8,500 12,000 12,000 14,620 16,300 16,000 16,000 16,000 Price (in rubles) -paperback 1.39 1.53 1.53 2.08 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 -hardbound 1.79 2.17 2.52 2.43 2.!~0 2.30 2.30 2.20 Completed 4/7/71 3/28/74 4/3/75 3/31/76 _ Date oi legal. ~i~ing 5/28/71 ~/22/74 4/21/75 4/20/76 4/27/77 3/?1/78 3/23/79 3/18%8~ vot?: Since 1975, the ofzicial res~onsible for publication has been G.G. ~lanaev. One could no doubt reconstitute an analogous table for the iollowi~g y2ars, but for a far ~ore limitad number Qi products; i~ is, ia ef~ect, at t:~e p:oduct level that t~:e greatest number of disa~pearances is to be observed. Tabl?s XI and XIII of t;ze 1978 ar.d 1979 aanual re~orts--3elative proportion of dif- :erent merchandise in [he L'SSR's expor~s (XI), and in its i~ports (XIII)--have no aore than !?2 positions, as against 50 arcd 48, respec~ively, in I975. 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR 6FFICIAL USE ONLY Table :{IZ o* the 1978 annual (USSR's Exports, by Product) has 405 positions, inclua- ing 24 wi~:~ 2 dioits, 104 with 3 digits, 259 with 5 digits an~ 18 with 7 digits, as against ~97 ~ositions in 1975, inclsding ~5 with 2 digits, 119 wit:~ 3 digics, 329 with 5 di;ics and ?4 with 7 digits--that is, an 18.~-percent dec:ease in the number oi posi~ions. In the 1979 annual report, one notes disapoearances a~ong t::e 5-di~- it indicators, and 2? zew 2ositions, includin~ 18 with 5 di;its and 4 with 3 digits. ~~taich, t:~en, are the products or aggregates that have disappeared :oot ar.d branch irom t;~e annual report between 1975 aad 1978, and which ha~e underocne a mod~fica- tion? rlt the 2xportaticn level, one counts 105 positicns that no longer exist, 13 new ag- , gregates, a:~d 38 positions g:ven in value whereas in t:~e i975 annual t~ey *aeze given in value and i~ physical quantities. The following have disappeared by more intensive agoregation ot mar.y catz;ories of machinery, equipment and means of transport (10-19): machine-tools, tne various die~ sei engines, the vari.ous electric motors, trans=oraie~s and batteries, a11 cranes, various ci�~:1-engineering equipment, the equipnent f~r the radio and elect:onics in- dustr,~, t!~e various types of electronic bookkee~ing machines, :he var,ious ?ocomo- tives, truc'.{s, the various iuels and petroleum products (coal, oi1, ;asoline, Fuel oil, ~r23S2S, etc), the various nnnfer:ous metals, the various la:ninates and steels, the various kinds oi pipe, alI nonferrous metals aad all non�errous laminates, and finall;~, ail '~inds of rubber an~ ru~ber articles. T:ze fo11o~.~ir.g ars no longer given ia terms of v1lue: Che single categories that grou~ the diesels,.transtormers, cable, rolling-aill equipment, smelting, elevators and other road~building machinery, computers, bearings, tractors, locomacives, t~ucks ar.c � pa~ts, buses, solid fuels, oil and petroleum products, gas, cast iron, the various iron alloys, rer:ous laminates, sheet metal, pipe, cable, certaiz chemi~al products, the vario~is cereals. . :hus, coai (200) has�~een replaced by a more general caCegor~ entitled soiid fuels _(20) thac comprises coke and lignite in addition *_o coal; furt'~er~o:e, t`~is catego:;: - is ~iven only in terms o� value. The Soviet sa?es of gas (23001) hav+~ sur'iered the same fate uncer the appe?Iation of gaseous _�ue~s (23Q), which also includes liquid gas and proQane. At t~e i~aocrtation level, one counts I04 positions that no longer exist, 23 new pc~si- tions, and ~5 eosit~ons given only in of value and no longer in physical quan- tities. The positions nave been aggr2gated for the various '.tinds of machine-tools, t:esses and rorging machines, for the lines of inetalwo:king equipment, the diesels, electric ~otors, cranes, the=.various kinds of czemical equi~ment, cartain civil- znginee:ia3 equipment, the electronic industry's equipment, the cable industry's _ aqui~meat, the va~ious '~cinds of computer, tractors and rai:.~aay eq~sipment, Lrucks, the va:ious ~iquid and solid fuels, the various nonie::ous miaerals and ores, the variou~ fer:cus ?a~i:sates, pipe, all nonferrous metals, :ubbe: articies. 6'a1Le on1~ is zow given ~or t!~e singles catego:ies that g:ou~ tae neadia;s that have disa~oea:ed, and in addition, cable, industrial equipment (~or rolling, smeltiag, lif~ing), bearings, buses, cast iron and :er:ous laminates, sheet metal, pipe, white i~on, r.~:merous chemical products, livestock and cereals. 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 � FOR OFIFICIAL USE ONLY _ Ia aIl the other taoles of the annuai report for 1978, especiall;~ by count:q and pro- - duct and by product and count:y, ene nates the same evolutien. Eowever, several '.~ca;- - products remain in physical quantities in the breakdowa ~y count^~. For example, for the Jnited States, Canada, ~,ustralia, Brazil, the Soviet im~or~s of cereals (wheat, corz, ~t~) are still given iz 1978 and 1979 in pnysical quantities and in value, whereas ~or France, ??ungary and Argeztina, the cereals are given onl;~ in value. _ as in the listing ~y product, one notes a sizable red~c~ion oz the tocal number ot positions tor each countr;~--in most cases, a larger reduction ior e:cportation than ~or inoortation. It is in trade wit:~ the socialist countries that the greatest nua:- ber of disapoearances is seen: from 12 percent less in 1978 by comparison with 1975 in 2Y~Orts to ~iongolia to 28 percent less in 1978 in relation to 1975 (ex~ortationto ?oland), _`rom 3~erceat less in impnrtation f:om uongolia to ?9 percent iess (Poland, Gt~.~). On the average, ~here are_ 21 -percent fewer headings wit:~ the socialist coun- tries at t:~e expcr~ation level and lo percent fewer at the i~portation level. �~ooor~ienate?~, ~he number of ?roducts exchanged with t:~e ;Jest~~ countries is low- er; but her~ too, the details (positions of 5 and 7 digits) are tendin~ to decrease --on the average, IO ~ercent fewer at the exportation level ar.d ; percent at t:~e oortation ?evel. Taith the developing countries, one notes, insofa: as the r.umoer ot ~roducts excnanged is si;nificant, the same evolution. The total m:mber of statea in trade with the countries of the Third World has decreased 'oy 19 percent a: the es~ortation level and 8 percent at t:~e importation level'. ~or 197?, the foreign-c:ade annual comprises a relatively large number of new posi- tions: i9 ~or exports, 22.for imports. They essentially involve nerchandise of sec- ondar~ importance: metal i3'.pet~ets; boric acid; anhydrides; articles of magnesite, ot ref:accory clay; ~roduc~s.of the sea; vegetables and potatoes; dried fruits and be:ries; mushrooms;; cooking fats; smoking tobacco; metallic notions; metal table�.~are, glass t3bleware; pianos �or ex~ort. At.the imoort le�~el there appear equipment for production oi metal constructions, agricultural machinery, butter and c:heese, ~obacco, phosahoric acid, fertilizers, fuzniture; welding equioment; cultural " zqui~ment; pipe (in value); fatty acids; anydrides, silicat~s, glu~es; ethylene; etc. " :he Nonenclature _ ir one ta:~ces the :igu:e= :esulting f:om a counting~ o~ t'~e annual's headings, in the ~ables o: _xc:~anges oy product (XII and XIV) (cf Table 3), or.e notes t:~at the disap- ~earanc2s involve mainly 5-digit and 7-digit positions--t;~a~ is, products. By cour ~ry, or.e obssrves the same phenomenon. Starting witt~: 1977, some highly aggregat~r. i-digit-~ositions apoear in the trade with certain part*~ers. ~~~orts o= tin =rom Bo- livia, ualaysia, Iadonesia, foL esample, are noc~ buried in a~o:e gene:al category ' ~ "_`ue?s, ~ineral raw wa*_eria?s, metals" corresponding to principal division 2 ot the zomenclatsre. Likewise, ru5ber ~rom.;~aLa~g18;,Burma and Sri Lanka is incorporaz~d "~~hemica: ?:oducts, fertilizers, rubber"--that is, princi~al division 3; and firiall.y, I:aq~. oi'_ a~oears ia principal ciivision 2. ~e ~a~a o? :'~e Disappea:a:.ces '=:ze appearance o: disappearance ~~f a cou~tr;~ in the USSR's torei~n-trade annual is iinked more to poli~ical considerations (regimes t:~at have ~he CSSR's approval) than to tae e:c~s tence or aone:tis tence of trade ~lows . ?'hus , C:~i? e;~as zot appeareC i.n 23 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY annual r~~ort since 1974. Gn the other hand, Nest 3erlia has alwaysbee~ consider2c as a"cocaae-cial" entity distinct irom the FRG. 3etween I97~ and ?979, otie notes severa' xodi~:cations. I~ 1976 apoear Laos, the United :~rao .:~irates, the Philip- pines, ~ngola, Guinea-3issau, Equator_al Guniea and ?anama; ia ?977, :iozambique. Ta- maica ~~ar.ishes in 1977, Somalia and t`~e Central :~f:ican Lmpire ia i~i8, and Kalt3, tne Unit~d ~:ab Emi:ates, Rwanda, Uganda, Equatorial Guinea, Vene~uela and Guyana i; 1979. The a~pearance ot Laos in t:~e number or t;~e socialist countries as ot '_977 should also be stress2d. iaole 3--?~umber ot Positions Total inclu~ing taose with di7its Yea:s nunber ot ~ositions 2 3 5 7 ~:tportation 19?~ 497 25 119 329 24 19723 405 24 104 259 18 197~ 423 24 112 2b8 19 I~DOrtation 19i5 '~95 22 131 311 31 - 1978 '+15 18 119 ~51 2i 1979 433 18 123 25~ 2i One can distin~~sish t~o stages in the process oz omissions of products. In the tirsc phase, in 19i6, products and 7 digits) previously given in paysical quantities and in value simply disappear: sucn is the typical case ot petroleum products, which all disappear ia 1976, with only the general designation, "petroleum products," remain- ing, wit:~ t:~e indicator 22, in vo~lume and value. The same thing is noted :or the various coals (200), cranes (130), �errous laminates (264), pipe, nonrerrous metals and alloys, the various c~bbezs. In 1977, all these products are combined in new, broader headizgs (2 digits) and/or are new given only i~n value, or disappear com- pletelv (r.onzerrous metals, c:anes, rubber). *iany produc*_s, r.otably ~3e cer�eals ~n~ agricuits:al ~roducts, and ce:tain chemical products are given onl~ in value star~~:_ with 197;, ar.d the same is the case �or c~rtain mac:~iaerj and means o= t=ansport. On1y the ~~oducts oi secondary in~erest have found ~a~~or with tre "statist~cians," and as we shall see, it is in that category that the cnoices ~ade by t:~e censor lies. The c2asicua ~s we have seen in the rirst pa:t, there ar~ sizable residua iz the Sovietstatistics. Her~ tov, one notes a det~rioration of the situation since 1975. The orooor~ion o= not-broken-down ite~s in Che s~:ucture o= t~e USS~'s expar~s by producr group (Table i:~ 1975, Table IX in 1978 and 1979) Went ~rom 1~.6 percent 1975 to ?9.2 percent ia 1978 and 17.3 percent in 1979, and iz ~he stiuc~u:~ ci im- ports, �rem 5.3 pe:c~nt to 5.0 ~ercent in 1978 and percent in 1979, a rel~-tively neg?i3:b1z iacrease. The it~~s no~ ~roken down i:~ the disr.:ibution of t:ade by country (':'able I~l) =n- creased considera~ly �or t:~e develooing count:ies ~~ntil ?978. '~e JOVIEC ex~or~s ~c the deve~opiag countries were Sroken down by country in the proportion oi 53.i ~er- 24 FOR aF~'IC~AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2447/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400454451-6 ' . FOR OFF[CIAL USF, ONLY cent in ?975 and only 50 pescent in i9~8, and bac;c up to ~4.d ~ercent in 19i9. For imports, the deterioration is less: 99.2 percent in 1975; ?3.~ ~erc~at in 19i8 and 99.~ percent in 1979. T~iith the other zones, 99.9 pe:ceet or t~ade is~ex~ressed. Obse_va'ion by countries and p.roducts snows once a;aiz sn :~poverisnaent of ::~fvr:~a- C1~[l, 25~~'Cl.dll~ dC ~i12 @X~O.~tZt10i1 leve? . 3et�Q�S1 igi~ d:ld _Qig~ Cile braakdown Dv j.roducts improved ior uongolia, Nort:~ Yorea, De*unar~c, Great 3ritair., Canada, Spain, 'vo raay, ;Iew Zealaud, Swede:z, Benin, ~gyp~, Ethiopia, Guiaea, L:bva, Nigeria, Rwanda; ~ier�a Leone, Sudan, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Kexico, Peru, ~f~nanistan, 3ang?adesh, 3u:- :aa, ':varus, Indonesia, Jordan, Lebanon, Nepal, Pakistar., Singapore, Sri Lanka, and tze "e~er.,~rab'Bepublic. All the athers show a decrease i:: rositions ~roken down, and especiall;~ t:~e socia.list countries, 3elgium, France, :he vetner?ands, the FRG, _i~e ~'ni~~d Sta*_es, Japan, Switzerland, the Ivorv Coast, GSana, uali, '".orocco, Uganc: Zamoia, :;rugua;~, Iraq, Iran, tuwait, ualaysia, Syria and :'~iai~azd. ~or impo:ts by count_y and product, Che deterioratior. or in~crsia~ion is less ~ro- - aounc2d and o=ten of little sibzificance, escept pe::~acs :or t:-e Soviet imoorts from - Poiand, 'lietnaa, Great 3ri~ain. LI~. The St_engLheni:~g o:: Statistical Sec:ec;~ ~he ~readth o~ the changes that have occurred in tb.e ~SSR's ~:~icial `oreign-t=ade sta:ist~cs is indisputable. Why, in 1976 and 1977, did the censors make so many : omissions, i.zeLUtab?,~ entailiiig an impoverishmen~ or inior.aation in t'~is area in - �nich tne situation was r.ot particularly brillianc? In I9i5, out of 12,512 positions aith 2, 3, ~ and 7 digits included in the foreign-trade nonenclature of the CE:tA mem- ~er _~ur.~ries, the Soviet toreign-t:ade annual's lists by product gave ~07 di:ferent ~osi~ions, or about 4 percent of the total, including 2~ 2-digit positions out ot 131 3-digit ~ositions out or 317, and 320 5-digit posi~ions out of 3,94~. Of course, not all the products in the nomenclature are necessa~ily im~orted or ~x- ported 'o;~ the JSSR; ~ut al? the same, it can be cor.sidered tnat with 507 posi:ions, things were ~ar out of line. cor 1978, out of 13,629 nomenclature positions, the list b~ ~roduct gives 4?9, or aoout 3 oercer.t, inclu~ing 2~ dif_`erent 2-~!i5it aosi- _ions, i'9 out or 320 3-~igit posi~ions, and 259 out ot 4,0'~? 5-digi~ positions. Seve~al reasons can be sug~ested in explanarion of t!:is^.t. Ne sna11 cice !~ere :our or them anich, it seems, have led Che Sov:e_ ceasorsnip to ~rans~o r.;, ~7e sta~:stics into a very raug~-~aoven fabric: 1--t`~e gr~wing dif~zcui*_ies of the Scaviet domestic econemy; ~--the evoluticn o= the iZternational raw-nacerials market; 3--the ext~nsion of the "strategic ?roducts" conceoc; '~--the USSR's *oreign policy. ?'?ze s~at:stical in~or.nation taat could disclose certaiz econonic di~*icul~i~s of ~~a ~~SSn in too quaatiriable a way have beea omit~ed sta:::ag ~:om the yea:s 1976-1977. - ia t'~i; _=;3:d, the par:icularl;~ sensitive sectors are fue's and ce~eals. iS :10 ~on,e: rOSSible~ OII t:~e bas~S Oi t:12 SCV1?C St3C:S~1CS~ CO '~C^~:: anat the - C'~ar.c::i~s o~l~ ~3S hc2a :.02~ lulPO:t3~ dII(~ 2:C~CI'~~Gt ~J CLl� ,,JJL~ dZ2~ cP.d ~.12:?~~~�_ - iWDOSS17~2 to {now apparent energy cansumption er to evaluate t~e co~ntr~'s st~cks. ~r~p ia t:~e �~olame oL oil ex~orts aould show in too oovious a way--iZ ~:~e cont~x~ 25 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 FOR OFFICIAL IISE ONLY af the :ise in the prices oi sources--t:~e USSR's i:aoi~ity to cope si~ultane- _-~us1;a wita a hi~her domestic demand aad an i::c:~ase ia ~emand ~or oil ar,d gss by t:~e ~'ascern countries. The same holds for t~e cereals--~.~hest, ~~rn, etc--:or which t:~e ~irficu'_ties ar~ notorious and the dericit constant. :~nd si~ilarly, *_he,volua~e oz _?YCnanges ot animals ror slaugnter is ao '_onger given in ~nysical cuantiti~s. T5e ~ evolution oz th~ exchanges of terrous lami.^.ates and c~:tain c::er~ical produ~t: ma;r ~ also :arlect a dif~icuit situation within t5ese brancnes. -'Seans of t:ansoort such as buses and t:uc:cs are doubtlessly ~o ~e n~ber2d among t:~e ~rod~:cts that may r2*lect a critical branch evolution, in view o: the sizable inves~- ments made in t:~e Soviet automotive industry in recent years, r"or these products, t.t':e loss o= in~ormation may also reveal aore strate~ic considerations. in all ese cases, of c~urse, one can make use of t:~e trace s=at:.stics o; 't~ e par_- ~er countries in order to reconstruct the volumes excaanged. ':~e procedure is a - :on~er one, ~:.ough, and dir~ereaces in recordin; from cour.t:~~ to cour.t:;~ otten nake it ~ossib?e on'_,~ to establish approximacions which are dit:icul~ to compare with the Soviet statistics. ::~e evoiu~ior. ot t:~e international noniood raw-r~aterials mar'.ce*_, caaraccz:ized since i~73 bv a constant rise ~n prices, nas ~ut into the rea~m oz sensitive products a number or ~asic products prev~ously consi~ered strategic products and =~eated as such --that is, they are:covered-:by secrecy like all military supplies, precious metals, . diamonds and radioactive products. T:~us can be explained the disappearance o= all the non~errous ~etals ~copper, zinc, tin, etc) and the nonfer~ous laminates. '~e nor.metailic ~izerals ~Wica, sul~ur, apatie, etc) are likewise omitted. ~ut t:~e cam- ourlagir.g of these products is not always done well. For exanple, the USSR inports ~rom 3ol;.via qnly crude and concentrated tin; it aatters little wnether it goes unde~ the headin3 "tin" of "fuels, mineral raw materials, metals." It can also be 3etec~ed easiiy for ~ialaysia. Likewise, one ~nows that the indicator 3, "Chemical productsJ L�Z'C1i12L'I'S, rubber," which is givea for Zndenesia, ~2alaysia, Sri Lanka ane covers natural rsbber exclusively. As for the first series of omissions, one can f:r.d *_he ~_gures ~y ~eans of the statistics of tae oartner couatries--but with c:?e same t=ouole that has been mentioned. In a few years, certaialy, it will be more ~ir~icu,t to ~cnow exac*_1~ wnat is covered by the nea positions. '~is is *_he only ex- plaaation that can oe given ~o justi~~ some relati~ely nai~~e disguises. 'I'he suporessioz of the neading "nonmeta~lic sinerals" (250) i:: 19i6, ~y absorpt~on - into tne :-digit positien ~2S) "norlmetallic minerals, clays and earths" makes it pos- sible to ~r'_ng out positz~n 25911--that is, diamonds--wi~ich i:ad be inc?uded in ta~s ~os:.tion, 3s ~aell as ~arite, ~ica, sand and gra~hite, :~nic:~ are ze;ii3ible amon~~ Sov=ec e:c~orts. Thus, in 19i5 the vaiue of exports or zen~etailic ~izerals tocalled 360. 9~i'_lion :1Di2S. In t:~e 1976: ar.z:~al~:repor:~, ~categor~ 25, for t:~e ; ear 1975, re- presented 635.5 million i1D12S. ihe difference ~s composed essen~ially of Soviet rough diamonds. 3'he ceiling value of the diamonds can alsa be calculated iz the lis~ - oz 2Y?OtLS by product and country (which does not include Great 3ritain, tae importer o~ t`~e ~a~or ~art o= Soviet u:~cut dianonds) by subtracting ail the councr~~s men- tioned ~=oca cac2gor~ ~5. In 1977, tae residual value is 310.? mi:.lion ~ubies, and :.r :9~3, 2".? ai:'_ion :ubles. T`:e e:~~~zs~on o= t:~e "s.t:ata3:c product" concept seems to be c?ose1~ ;:nked to the ~:ecucts oi inc:easing technici~y, on the one hand, and or. tae ocher, :o the greater 26 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONL,Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 ' FOR OFFICIAI. USE ONLY vulnerabilit~~ of tne ener~y resources indis~ensable to t;~e economic expansion of ;~11 countries. Secrecy now covers-:the neavq equipment for ~etalworking (presses, ham- mers, shears), the c:anes, computers, cables o: all kinds, pioe, and a1Z heavy equip- ~ent for the eYtractive industries. rinally, one Iast motivation is ce:tainly among the most important that can explain the sizable loss or intormation--a motivation of a political order. The suppressior; of the paysical-quantities statistics now makes it impossible ~o calculate the unit value d~ ~any products by country. One can no longer make comparisons bet~2:en the unit prices of the exchanges ~aith the socialist count:ies, with Ghe developing countries aad the Wes~ern countries and ~hose ot the world market. Until 1976, one cou?d know what countries benefited from real Soviet aid by means of pr~rerential exchange prices. For examcle, aid to Cuba takes the zo r.n oE~:i~~orts of Cuban sugar at prices well above the world price and by Soviet ex~ores or oil at prices lower t'~an the price o= the oil sold to the ot5er socialist countries. Such _ deductions will henceforc:~ be very difficult to make. This doubtlesslv imrolves a deiiberate de~ision to d2prive foreign observers of a means for anal;~sis of Soviec - `or=i~n oolic~. It is also rron a foreign-policy motive that certain sensitive pro- duc~s na~~e disappeared io: certain countries only: natural gas imported ;:rom Iran, oil ~rom Iraa,. In the latter case, the oiI was buried under the 1-digic "iuels, mine~al raw materials, metals,"which for Iraq includes c:ude oil enly. It is certain that t:~e Soviet intentions go very broadly against the decisions taken at Helsinki in the mattez of economic information. The evolution noted since 1976 shows clearly the Soviets' dete~ination not to contribute to the efforts being made oy the Helsinki rinal ~ct signatory countries to reconcile and better harmonize each country's trade statistics. Moreover, the USSR seems to have given similar direc- ti~res to its socialist partaers, which since 1975 have also more or less reduced th= volume of inro~ation that used to be available in the annual statistical reoorts. Onl~ vuagary nas not =ollowed the movement. Thus, since 1975 the general statistical - annual oz the GDR, whicn was already poor for foreign trade, has aggreagated the e:c-- ports and i~oorts by country. One can no longer calculate the balances. In aertain cases, t:~e cmission p:ocedure is thoroughly crude. In 1978, for example, Bul;aria suppr~ssed aIl t;~e statistics on its ex-post im~orts of oil--that is, im~orts afte= ~ comput~r composition of its foreign-trade annual report. The position oi Libya, which se11s only oil to it, has been erased, and for the other oi?-supplier coun- - tries, the lines have been cancelled out. Nevertheless, the poorly camouflaged voi- ume oi Soviet oil imports can be deciphered. One o,uest:on must be asked in the last analysis. How is one to reconcil2 the atti- tude or t`~e 'JSS~,which tends to raise~obstacles against anything that could contri- bute *o better understandiag of that countr~, with the development oi ar. economy that remains :i3hly dependent on its ties with the Westera world? - F00'~10Tc. S I~ :.s =~ererore clea~ t~at tze i.nstitucion, Sy the decree or Ju1y 197?, of ~he ent=~prise "passport" is aimed at breakizg t:~e secrecy ~ai:h whicn the ~roduc~ior. ~_n:ts sur=our.d themselves. Hence~orth, in ef:ect, it wiil be ~oss~ble to cneck the declarations of the 2nterprises 5y means of a central record ~iled wi*:~. tne 27 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 ~ FOR OFFICIAL 1JSE ONLY Gospian and indicating, `or eac:~ unit, its aomi:al capaci[y, the degree of useof. its eauipment, the increase o= the coerficient of rotation of its equipment, et~, The question remaias wnet:~er the aut5orities wi11 e=~ectively have the means by,which to apoly this measure. On this subject one may rafer to the July-:~ugus~: 1980 issue or C�E (COL'RRiER DES ??,YS DE L';.ST), vo 2!+2: "The alterations oE the - Economic ~!echanism in the Soviet Union and in Eastzrz Europe." 2. France's zconomic results are published b;~ t:~e I:~SEE (~lational Institute of Sta- tistics and Economic Studies~ oetween 18 ~onths ar.d ? years later. 3. 3e:ason, "The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928," Cambridge, ~SA, I?arva:d University Press, 1961; Becker, :~.5., "Soviet vational Zncome 1958-1964: National ~ccounts of the USS& in the Seven Year P1an Period," 3er!{z- 1ey, Unive:sity ot Caliiornia ?ress, 1969; Treml, V.G., and Hardt, J.: "Soviet Economic Statistics," ~urham, ;IC, Duke University ?ress, 19i2; Gr_en, D.W., and Higgins, C.I., "SOV~fOD I: ~Iacroeconomic Model of the Soviet Union," Vew Yoric, Academic Press, 1977; etc. 4. "A New ,~pproac:h to the Economies of Soviet Type: t:~e 'Second Economy G. Du- chene ia LE COURRI:.R DES �9YS DE L'ES~, Occober 1480, Vo ?44. Alec ~iove, "The Soviet cconomic System," George ~ilen and Unwin Ltd, London, - 1977. ' . 6. "Results of the Soviet Economy in 1979: Taward Zero Grvwtz," in LE COUR~IER DES PA`~S JE L'EST, February 1980, No 237. ' 7. The ?rir.t run of the annual report for the Federat~d Soviet ~ocialist Republic oi Russia was 27,000 for 1978, for the Ukraine annual it was 6,~00 for 1978, for ~::e ~ Aze:baijan annual it ~as 4,000 for 1976, for the Latvia' annual it was 2,500 for 1977, e*_c. We note that for 19i7 and 1978, ~he statistical ar.nuaL for the L'SSR ~ was printed in 40,000 and ~5,000 cooies, respectively. 8. Cf "?anorama of the ~SS~," LF..:COURRIE3 DES ?A'_'S L~~' L'?ST, Fe~tua~y-`~a:ch..'_9?9, vos ?25-227, 2nd editien, i980, pp 72-73. 9. "Ecocomic, Ccmmer::ial and ?,dmiaist:ative Iafor~ation ~elevar.t to t`~e Developme.^.:. of Trade," TRADE (R 354, 23 4ugust 1977, ECE (L'nited Nacions ~cor.omic Coa~isior. tor ~ur~pe], Committee on the Development of Trade. 10. T'.ZADE / R 389, r~dd. I, 9 October 1979, E~C, Co~mitte~ ?o: the Developnent o= Trade. 11. Cf Lavigr.e, "Tes ~elations Economic ~'st-Ouest" (Last-West Econonic ~elati.or.~s; , ~!.'F (Ur.iversi:y ?resses o: France~, Paris, 197�, pp ?0-?1. 12. Certai.n corrections are not inserted ia the annual :eper~s ror t'~e `ollowing ~ea: s, but ~ay be pub ?:s;~ed in t:~e review VNrSi~~1Y~Y~, ~ORGOVL`:~. 'I":us t:~e i~dex~ s oz che voi~e of t;~e iJSS2's ~oreig:. trade :or 1975 were cor~ected for ~he "CF.`~ count.ies" 3r~up ia ~I`IESH*~`?:~''A T.ORG.~VL'.'a, Vo 9, 1977, ? o~. 13. erom i930 to 1958, t~e JSSZ pubLished no annual reports on foreign t:ade. Ia 1958, it issued rao re~rospective works :.~r the years :956 and 1957. 28 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400450051-6 . ~ , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 14. We re=er to "Vneshnyaya Tor;ovl;~a v ~SSB 1955-~9 g.," w~zch was published in 1901 after t;~e ot the nominal oold contenC of t:~e :t:bie and which fur- - nishes the data ~2calculaced in ~unctien o~ tr.e zew rate ror t:~is period; "Ves~- nya~a Tor;ovlya SSS~ v 1959-69 g." was published after t~e adopti~n of tne uni- :ied nomenclature or the C~:~.A in i96~ and contains the ~rsde statistics ia con- ror~ity with this aomenclatuze `or the vears 19?S and 1958-196~. L5. r~ccording to "~Iethcdological Explanatior.s" in "Jneshnyaya Torgovlya SSSR v 1978 op ~84-'85. I6. Tiraspolsky, "'i'~e Stacistical Divergences of ~ast-rdest Trade," ir. "Strate- gies des Pays Socialistes dans 1'~chaage Inte~ational" [St=at2g~ of the Social-- ist Count: ies in In~er-~at-onal E:cc:~ange Economica, Paris , 1980, pp 317 ~331. , 17. ~omanov, ~.A., in 3:;.'~LL~T~:~' INOSTRFu~~`IOY KCIyL*~fE3C'cIESi~OY =`1FGR`^A~S~':, vo 3, 1971, turnishes az alphabetical list o= t;e products ot tie c:r.i~ied nomer.clature of 1971 with, oQoosite them, ~he numerical codes o~ t::e c'_assi*ications ot 1962,of - t:~e S~TC, and of t:~e Brussels aomencLatuze. ~lso: "Drart Conversion Kay betxeen the Jnited ~Tatior.s Star.dard Interzational :'_ade C'_assi:icatian and theStandard Foreign Trade Classi~ication of the Counc:L _ for `~utual Economic ~ssistance," Con~ Stats/WG 35;2, Ganeva, United Nations, 20 ~u1;r 19'2, and =~sr. -Ccnf Stats/GiG 38/2, ?.mend 1, o: ?0 ~iugust 19i2. _ I8. "Q_~i~aya ~ovarnaya `lomenklatura Vneshney Torgovli" (Uni~ied Commodities of the Foreign-T~ade Voner.clature], 3rd edition, ~toscow, 1971, 507 pages; and "Byul- ~ 12~en' Tovarov Vneshaey Torgovli (Dooolr.enie k c~inoy iovaznoy :lomenklature F . Vr.~snney Torgovli Stran C:~lenov Sovyeta ~konomicneskoy Vza~~opomosni" (Bulletin o~ :oreign-Trade Co~odi~ies (Suoplement to the Uniiied Co~odities vomenclatur~ for,:o:eign Trade of the Count:ies of the Council for cconomic~:Iutual Assist- anc$], uoscow, 1977, ~4 pages. I9. "Desc:iption and ~nalysis of Soviet Foreign Trade Statistics," op cit, pp 39-74 20. uare~, "Sovie~ and ~ast European ro:ei;n irade, 1~45-?959," Rlocmington, Indiana Universit~ P:zss, 1973. C~PYRIGF~T: La Docunentat~on Francaise 1?~67 CSO: 81~9 /i35o - E~1D - 29 r. nn nr. r, r~r ~ ror, l~t~tT APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400050051-6