JPRS ID: 9827 USSR REPORT CYBERNETICS, COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
• Release Decision: RIF
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 167
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 8
• Content Type: REPORTS

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R440400070008-2
FOR OFFI('IAL USE ONLY
JPRS L/ 10093
4 November 1981
~ SSR Re art
U p
METFOROLOGY AND HYDROLO~Y
' No. 6, June 1981
- FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFOR~JI~`TION SERViCE
, FOR OFFICIAL USE UNLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
NOTE
JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign
newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency
_ transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language
sourc;es are translated; those from English-language sources
are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and
_ other characteristics retained.
Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets
are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text]
or [Excerptl in the first line of each item, or following the
= ~ast line of a brief, indicate how the original information was
processed. Where na processing indicator is gi.ven, the infor-
mation was summarized or extracted.
Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are
enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques-
tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the
original but have been supplied as appropriate in context.
Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an
item originate with the source. Times within items are as
- given by source.
The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli-
cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government.
COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF
MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION
OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE OiVLY.
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
Ft)R nFP1C'L41. t'til~ (1N1.1'
NOT ICE
The contents of this report will change with the next issue. Instead of
- cover-to-cover translation, it will contain either translations or abstracts of
all articles from the Soviet journal METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY. The Table of
Contents will list each article in that issue of the journal and will note those
articles which have been abstracted.
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400400070008-2
JPRS L/1009~
4 November 1981
USSR REPORT
METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
No. 6, June 19~1
Translati.on of the Russian-language monthly journal METEOROLOGIYA I
GIDROLCGIYA published in Moscow by Gidrometeoizdat.
CONTENTS
Principal Results and Prospects f.or Development of Hydrometeorology and
Environmental Monitoring 1
Weather Forecasting: Status and Immediate Tasks 19
Study of ClimaL-e and Its Practical Aspects 37
Present Status of Clima.tic Research 59
The Heliogeophysical Service, Its Tasks and Prospects for Development........... 74
M~odern Probiems in Oceanographic Research 92 ~
Princip~~l. Results and Prospects for the Developinent of Investigations ~n the
T~l~ld nf Ilydr~lo~y tn Relation to the Problems of 5hiftinR of Part of the
I 40-60 MeV, normalized to
maximum intensity;
the time of onset of the maximum of the intensity of a SCR event with Ep > S MeV;
the decay constants for fluxes of protons with energies EP > S MeV;
the onset and duration c~f the event;
the rigidity indices of the integral spectra at the intensity maximum and at the
beginning of the event at the half-maximum level.
- On the basis of data from radio observations in the centimeter range methods raere
developed for predicting the parameters of proton events:
89
' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400070048-2
Ft~lt t1F'~'t1'1.11 1~~R' C1~1 1
flare cuor~fln~tc~ti;
an evaluation of the probability of registering an event with a stipulated in-
tensity;
prediction of the upper limit of a proton flux with Ep ~ 10 MeV.
As already mentioned, the state of the interplanetary medium exerts a considerable
influence on the propagation of solar protons. Accordingly, the problems involved
in the diagnosis and predicrion of the par.ameters determining the state of inter-
pl.anet?rv space also play an important role in predicting radiation conditions. It
has been es~:ubl;~,he~~l in u r?umber of studies that the characteristics of SCR are
related th~ direcrion of the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic
field. Conditions in the interplanetary medium are determined for the most part by ,
the density and velocity of the solar wind.
The principal direction in the development and improvement of work on prediction of
radiation conditions is the creation (on computer carriers) of global dynamic
Models of radiation conditions with ~ limited number of controllable parameters
for each phase of the solar cycle. The evaluation and prediction of these para-
meters will be accomplished on the basis of an operational computer data bank.
It is planned that investigations of the energy, structure, dynamics and optical
characteristics of the upper at:nosphere and ionosphere be carried aut under a
multisided program which includes s~ientific programs for observations using MR-
1'L (or MR-25) rocket~ bc~*h on the basis of a set of ineasured parameters and on
the basis of the effects of solar activity and other factors (that is, seasonal,
diurnal, latitudinal, longitudinal and other effects). These investigations re-
quire tY?e carrying out of joint synchronous satellite and rocket experiments on
scientif ic research ships used as mobile rocket polygons. The collected experimen-
tal data will be used in developing methods for the physical model prediction of
heliogeophysical parameters.
An improvement of the ionospheric-magnetic network provides for the creation of
slant, transionospheric sounding with the use of artificial earth satellites,
sounding by the partial reflections method, outfitting of the network of tnagnetic
stations with instrumentation and apparatus for measuring variations of the mag-
neric field in the range 0-1 Hz with the possibility of broadening the range to
10 Hz.
For the purpose of increasing the probable success of geophysical predictions and
increasing the number of predictable parameters an important task is the creation
of an operational solar service in the X-, W, radio and optical ranges. For thi5
it is necessary to organize a continuou~, around-the-clock patrol of optical, UV-,
X-radiations and radioemission from tlie ~~un. In this connection plans call ~or the
developme:.lt of a complex of satellite instrumentation and creation of a surface
network of stations outfitted with radic, telescopes. For continuous around-the-
clock monitoring of radioemission it is desirable that provision be made f~r the
installation of radiotelescopes in the western hemisphere and on the scientific
re~~earch ships of the State Comn~~ttee on Hyc!rometeorology and Envirotuuental Mon-
itoring eperating in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
~ J
FOR OFF'ICIAL U~E ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400400070008-2
MoK okF�~c'IA~. USE UNLY
_ In conclusion it should be noted that in order to achieve the most complete and
highest-level satisfaction of users with current data and predictions during the
- F.leventh Five Year Plan it is necessary to develop objective prediction methods
with tise of the latest computers, modern methods for measuring heliogeophysical
parameters, with the use of a broadened observational network of the service, out-
fitted with more modern apparatus designed at a modern scientific and technical
level.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Avdyusin, S. I., Dlikman, F. L., Davydov, V. Ye. and Frishberg, F. M., "Math-
ematical Model of a Data Exchange System," TRUDY IPG (Transactions of the
Institute of Applied Geophysics), No 36, 1979.
2. Avdyushin, S. I., Kogan, R. M., Vyazemskiy, V. 0., Korotayev, G. A., Kulagin,
Yu. M., Kurilenko, Yu. Ya., Polyakov, G. M. and Yudkevich, I. S., "Radiation
Tnstrumentation of the 'Meteor-1' Artificial Earth Satellite," TRUDY IPG
(Transactions of the Institute of Applied Geophysics), No 1, 1970.
3. Bezruchenkova, T. M., Nazarova, I~I. N. and Pereyaslova, N. K., "Application of
a Model of Isotropic Diffusion for predicting the Development of Fluxes of
Solar Cosmic Rays in the High-Latitude Zones of the Earth"s Magnetosphere,"
GEOMAGNETIZM I AERONOMIYA (Geomagnetism and Aeronomy), Vol 16, No 4, 1976.
4. Mikirova, N. A. and Pereyaslova, N. K., "Influence of Photospheric Magnetic
Fields on the Characteristics of Propagation of Solar Flare Protans," DOKLADY
AKADEMII NAUK SSSR (Reports of the USSR Academy of Sciences), Vol 234, No 4,
1977.
5. Chernyshev, 0. V. and Vasil'yeva, T. N., PROGNOZ MAKSIMAL'NO PRIMENIMYKH CHP.S-
TOT (Prediction of Maximum Useable Frequencies), Moscow, Nauka, 1963.
_ 6. Avdyushin, S. I., Danilov, A. D., Malyshev, A. B., Novikova, G. N. and Svidsky,
P. M., "Forecasting Ionospheric and Geomagnetic Conditions at the IAG Foie-
casting Center," SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PREDICTIONS, USA, Vol 1, Prediction Group
Reports, 1980.
7. Avdyushin, S. I., Pereyaslova, N. K., Dlikman, F. L. and Kulagin., Yu. M.,
"Forecasting of Solar Energetic Radiation at the Forecast Center of the In-
- stitute of Applied Geophysics. SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL PREDICTIONS, USA, Vol 1, Pre-
- diction Group Reports, 1980.
9~
F'OR QFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400400070008-2
F'OR UF~'IC'IAL US~ ON1.Y
UDC 551.46
MODERN P?^.^,'.L'~IS tN O:;~NOGRAPHIC RESEARCH'~
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 (manuscrint received
9 Dec 80} pp 77-86
[Article by A. F. Treshnikov, corresponding member USSR Academy of Sciences, and
_ F. S. Terziyev, candidate of geographical sciences, Arctic and Antarctic Scientific
Research Institute and State Oceanographic Institute]
[Text] Abstract: The authors formulate the prin-
cipal tasks of the State Committee on Iip-
- drometeorolc~g}~ in the field of oceanograph-
ic research. The review gives an analysis
_ bf its pesent status and outlines paths for
further development. It is shown that the
basis for study of the seas and oceans
should be a program of in situ experiments
which constitute an embodiment of the theor-
et3cal schemes. In addition to the collection
of information on the world ocean, plans call
for the extensive study of atmospheric process-
es. There is a need for strengthening funda-
mental investigations in the field of oceano-
graphy and especially theoretical studies di-
rected to a study of thermodynamic processes
in the world ocean ~or the purpose of develop-
ing and improving methods for sea and weather
predictions. In the field of practical research
an 3mportant place is occupied by the problems
involved in a study of the regi~e of seas in
connection with the successful exploitation of
mineral and biological resources of the shelf
. zone, the problem ~f evaluatin~; the consequences
of chemical contami.nations in ecosyst~ms and the
development of scientifically sound recommenda-
tions on the dynar~ics of the eontamination lev-
el. The importance of different aspects of the
problem of a def icit of cont~nental fresh run-
off is emphasized.
*
Main content of a report at an expanded session of the Presidium of the Scientific
and TEChnical Council, State Committee on Hydro~eteorology and Environmental Mon-
itoring, 13 October 1980.
- ~ 92
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
b'UK OE~'F7('~Al. UtiH: l)N1.1'
The role of the oceans and seas in the life of mankind is increasing without in-
terruption. This is attributable, in particular, to man's increasing need for the
use of the biological and mineral resources of the oceans and seas, which to the
present time are not being fully used. Work was begun on the exploitation of the
mineral resources of the oceans and seas relatively recentlq, but even now more
- than 20% of alI petroleum and gas produetion is from the continental shelf and in
the coming 10-15 years its production at sea should become dominant. Equally impor-
tant are oceanological investigations for creating a scientific basis for finding
and choosfng promising regions for the exploitation of fish and other biological
objects because the dynamics of development of biological communities is directly
related to vertical and horizontal movements of waters and their tur�bulent mixing.
The transport af heat by ocean currents and tfie processes of interaction between
the ocean and the atmosphere are of primary importance for solving problems in-
volved in weather prediction and creation of a theory of climate.
The role of sea transport is increasing and it now accounts for 10-14% of the en-
tire mass of transported freight. The accumulation of a considerablF- part o� the
contaminations of industrial and domestic character in the seas and oceans is
bringing to the forefront the problem of preserving the ocean medium. The success-
ful solution of the above-mentioned problems is unthinkable without a thorough
and profound study of the physical, chemical and biological processes in the
oceans and the seas.
The resolutions of the 25th CPSU Congress point out the necessity for "expanding
complex investigations of the world ocean." Accordingly, the principal tasks of
the State Committ2e on Hydrometeorology in the field of oceanography are:
l. Study of the hydrometeorolo~ical regime of the seas and oceans.
- 2. Supplying interested organizations with hydrometeorological information.
3. Monitoring the state of the ocean medium and chemical contamination regimes.
4. Prediction, including super-long-range prediction, of the hydrological condi-
tions and ecological consequences of natural and anthropogenic influences on the
sea and ocean.
A solution of these problems is possible only on the basis of work on the funda-
mental problems of oceanology, among which are the fallowing:
study of circulation of waters of the world ocean and its variability at differ-
ent time and space scales;
study of macroscale interaction between the atmosphere and ocean for the purpcse
- of long-range prediction of weather and creation of a theory of climate;
study of the ice cover of the polar regions, its dynamics and iole in climatic
changes;
study of the hydrometeorological conditions on the shelf zone of USSR seas;
investigation of the ecological consequences of chemical contamination of
waters of the world ocean and formulation of effective proposals and measures for
prevention of their negative effects on the enviroxunent.
The enumerated problems constj.tute the basis of oceanologic3l investigations of
~ institutes of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring.
43
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
F1?it t11~M'It 1:11 1~tit' t1N1,1
- We will briefly discuss the results of investigations of the mentioned problems
in the Tenth Five Year Plan and the prosgects of these investigations in thQ
Eleventh Five-Year Plan,
The investigation of the problem of macroscale interaction between the atmosphere
and the ocean was carried out both by the formulation of numerical models and pri-
marily on the basis of in situ observations.
In situ i_nvestigations in the ocean during the last ten years have assumed an
enormous SCaie. 4 c~nsiderable share of these investiga~ions has been carried out
by the �c.~'_~t Union, �,ahich has the largest scientific research fleet. Taking only
the last five years into account, the number af voyages of scientific research
ships, the number of hydrological stations occupied and the volume of collected
information add up to very impressive figures. However, it is not the volume af
wark on this problem which attracts attention, but the qualitative changes in the
strategy for carrying out expeditionary investigations of the world ocean, mani-
fested in a tendency to study th~ ocean on the basis of extensive programs. For
example, during recent years such large-scale interctepartmental research programs
as TRO~EKS-72 and TROPEKS-74, "Musson-77," MONEKS-79, PGEP-79 (F~GE-79), "POLEKS-
Sever," "PGLEKS-Yug," "Tayfu~i," POLIMODE and a number of others have been carried
out or are continuing. An important point is that for the most part these programs
have been directed not only to the collection of informat:Lon on the ocean, but have
- provided for extensive study of processes in the atmosphere and interaction between
the atmosphere and ocean, as a result of which there is every basis for calling
them complex programs of in situ experiments.
The great attention which recently has been devoted to this type of programs is
not some sort of passing phase. Multisided programs make it possible to coordinate
the efforts of institutes and departments and for their implementation use major
technical resources. For example, 10 scient3fic research ships, 2 aircraft detach-
ments of the high-latitude "Sever" expedition, 2 aircraft laboratories and an ex-
tensive network of surface aerological stations participated in the experiment
"POLEKS-Sever-76." Along these lines still greater possibilities are afforded by
international programs for in-situ investigations, of which GATE was an example.
It should be particularly emphasized that Che basis for the mentioned programs
is definite theoretical premises, This is responsible for a clearly defined direc-
tion in the collection of data with specific purposes in mind. This, in the long
run, considerably increases the effectiveness of the scientific research.
Without dwelling in detail on an exposition of the results of the enumerated in
~ situ experiments, we note that studies for investigation of heat exchange between
the ocean and the atmosphere were carried out in a11 latitude zones of the earth
' from the Central Arctic and the Antarctic Ocean to the tropical regions. As a re-
sult it was possible to obtain estimates of heat flows through leads and young ice
in the Central Arctic and estimates of *_~:e heat balance components in the region
of the North European Basin and to the north of the polar frontal zone of the Ant-
arctic Ocean. Valuable information on energy exchange between the ocean and the
atmosphere in the tropical zone was obtained in the tropical experiment and the
results of investigations under the "Musson" and MONEI~S programs made it possible
to draw a number of important conclusions concerning the influence of the Somali
94
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400404070048-2
FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY
Current on the monsoonal process, which is of great interest for solving problems
relating to monsoonal circulation in this regior. and a more extensive region of the
southern and eastern parts of Asia.
A generalization of the collecred data for the purp~se of ascertaining the global
patterns of heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere is one of the high-
ly important problems on which the institutes of the State Committee on Hydrometeor-
ology and Lnvironmental Monitorin~ are working.
_ In discussing the prospects for in situ investigations, there is every basis for
asstuning that in the future they will be carried out on the basis of this sort of
program.
The problem of studying the mean circulation of the waters of the world ocean and
its va~iability remains one of the principal problems for investigation. As already
mentioned, it is closely related to the problem of interaction between the ocean
- and the atmosphere because heat transport by currents and heat loss from the ocean
in energy-active zones are two of the most important factors involv.ed in the form-
' ing of weather anomalies. For this reason it is necessary to discuss a program pro-
posed by Academician G. I. Marchuk for investigations of the interaction between
the ocean and atmosphere for the purpose of Iong=range prediction of weather and
development of the theory of climate, called "Razrezy" (Profiles)~ Covering a wide
range of problems, this program providPS for c2~rrying out a complex of in situ in-
vestigations for the purpose of detecting so-called energy-active zones of the
_ world ocean, that is, zones of active interaction between the ocean and the atmo-
sphere and estimates of heat transport by the main systems of currenCs in the At-
lantic and Pacific Oceans. In addition to in situ experiments, within the frame- .
work of the program plans call for carrying out a cycle of theoretical investiga-
' tions. The timeliness of the formulated problems and the wide range of the prob -
lems to be studied dictate that the realization of the "Razrezy" program is plann-
ed as a mission of the State Committee on Science and Technology and a whole
series of institutes of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology, USSR Academy of
Sciences and other departments will participate. It can be assumed that the "Raz-
rezy" program will be one of the major multisided programs of the Eleventh Five-
Year Plan in the field of hydrometeorology.
The implementation of a broad complex of in situ observations requires a new ap-
proach to the problems o>' collecting, checking and automating the processing ot
the collected data. Without discussing the tasks in this field in detail, we will
note only what is most important. Most of the users require information on the
actual state of the sea during the current period, that is, a knowledge of the
areal (sometimes three-dimensional) distribution of hydrometeorAlogical elements
(temperature, level, currents, etc.). Under present-day conditions the system of
observations in the seas and oceans does not allow this because the world ocean
is too great. A solution of the problem can be obtained by the introduction of
telemetric and satellite observation systems. A draft of such a system was devel-
oped by the State Oceanographic Institute as the coordinating organization and
has been partially realized in the form of a component part of the OGSOS system.
An improvement in the accuracy of observations from satellites will occur with
the planned introduction of the new satellite system. A multisided plan for work
95
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
- NOR (1FH1('lAl. l~tiF' ONl.l'
- on improvement of inethods for the processing of satellite information and the re-
duction of its receipt to an operational regime has been developed by the Lenin-
grad Division of the State Oceanographic Institute in collaboration with the
State Scientific Research Center for the Study of Natural Resources. The realiza-
tion of the planned programs will make it possible, at definite times, to obtain
oceanological information at global scales and with the necessary discreteness and
accuracy.
However, any reasonable increase in the number of observation stations and observ-
af:ion sv5t~ms will not be abl.e to solve the problem of obtaining oceanological
information b~ ~i~P ~ise of actual observations alone. Here the problem of develov-
ing four-dimensional diagnostic r~ethods for the processing and assimilation of
sea information based on hydrothermodynamic models of processes transpiring in the
sea and ocean moves to the forefront. The experience in application of such an an-
proach in meteorology gives positive results, and if it is taken into account that
meteorologists have recour~e to the use of this method, having at their disposal
infoi-mation exceeding by a factor of 1,000 times, in the opinion of specialists,
the volume of oceanological information, it becomes clear how urgent and necessary
~ is the problem of the development of diagnostic methods in oceanographv.
The multisided character of the in situ experiments which have been mad,e make
it possible to obtain extensive information on the structure of circulation of
waters in the investigated regions and also on the propagation and tran~formation
of water masses. We will discuss only results which from our point of view are of
fundamental importance. ~
In discussing th.E processes transpiring in the earth's polar regions it is first
of all necessary to emphasize that up to the present time discussions are proceed-
ing ~n the possibility of the influence of the heat of Atlantic waters on hydro-
meteorological condit-ions, including on the ice cover of the Arctic basin. Th~
basis for such doubts 3s the fact that Atlantic waters are "buried" under a rela-
tively thick layer of surface and intermediate waters havin~ a stable stratifica-
_ tion, which precludes the direct transfer of heat upward by convection. On ~he
~ other hand, waters heated to 3�C enter into the Arctic basin and waters cooled to
0.5�C emerge from it. Nevertheless, the relative year-to-year constancy in the dis-
tribution of temperatures of Atlantic waters gave reason to speak of their "con-
servatism."
- Oceanological observations of the "Sever" expedition, carried out annually since
1973 and entering into the complex of "POLEKS-Sever" investigations, made it pos-
sible for the first time to cast light on this problem. It was found that the var-
iability of the heat content of Atlantic waters is very great. It is possible to
discriminate two time scales of fluctuations of the heat content of Atlantic
waters, to ~ait: long-period fluctuationG `:aving an epochal character and associat-
ed with a change in water temperature an~=~ shorter-period, interannual fluctuations
caused by changes in the thickness of th~ layer of Atlantic waters. Similar fluc-
tuations have also been detected in the intensity of the anticvclonic circulation
of waters. According to the surveys made, the cente~ of the anticyclonic circul~-
tion varies relatively little in space. The princinal changes are rel.ated to the
tt~e intensity of this circulation, as is reflected in dynamic heights and its

,a
96
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
H'UR ONFICIAL USE ONLl'
total area. These changes are then manifested ~n the iAterannual va~iability of
the ice content of the marginal seas in the eastern sector of the Arctic. .T_t is
also important that the changes in the hydrological conditions of the Arctic basin
are associated with atmospheric circulation, and this makes it possible to con-
clude that they are caused by glo~al factors.
A jaint examination of data from oceanologieal surveys in the Arctic basin and data
obtained by scientific research ships in tY~2 North European basin leads to still
' another iiiteresting result.
As early as i898 F. Nansen determine~ that more than fi% of the volume of the Nor-
wegian Sea is occupied by cold bottom waters with a temperature of -1.3�C.
Later observations, carried out in the 1950'a, did not reveal bottom waters with a
temperature below -1.1�C. In this connection doubt was eve~? laid to rest concern-
ing the reliability of the observations of F. Nansen. However, since 1970 the tem-
perature of the bottom waters began to decrease and in 197' fell to -1.2~C. A com-
parison of the temperature variation of Atlantic waters in the Arctic basin and
the temperature of bottom waters in the Norwegian Sea indicated that the cooling
in the Arctic, developing since the 1940's, affected nat~only the atmosphere, but
also the deep layers of the ocean distant 500 and even 2,000 m from its surface.
~ These were the first data in thQ world literature indj:cating that climatir changes
penetrate to great depths. Since bottom waters are propagated for-many thousands
_ of kilometers, it can be postulated that the influence of the processes of warm-
ing and cooling of these waters affects the entire world ocean. A study of these
processes is only beginning and for the time bei~g it is difficult to make 3udg-
' ments concerning their role. But from what has beeiz said it follnws that it is
important to continue investigations of Atlantic deep waters of the Arctic basin
because such investigations lead to an understanding of macroscale thermal pro-
cesses and provide a physical basis for ice, hydrological and meteorological pre-
dictions.
The investigations carried out in the Antarctic Ocean u~der the "POLEKS-Yug" ex-
periment made it possible to ascertain the spatial structure of the Antarctic Cir-
cumpolar CurrenC (ACC) and evaluate the principal scales of its variability. The
problem of the structure and dynamics of the ACC is closely related to the problem
of studying the frontal zones of the Antarctic Ocean. As indicated by recent ob~
servations, the position of the Polar Front Zone for *_he most part corresponds
to the configuration of the main flow of the ACC, and the eddy formation process-
es in the frontal zone exert a substantial influence or~ the dynamics of the mean
flow. It musr be emphasized that investigation of the f~ontal zones of the Ant-
arctic Ocean is of great importance in a study of~the formation and propagation
_ of ~vater masses. The most important problems are related to the formation and
propagation of antarctic intermediate water~ and antarctic bottom waters, which,
penetrating far beyond the limits of the Antarctic Ocean, exert an influence on
the global circulation.
Proceeding to the warmer regians of the temperate and low latitudes, it is neces-
sary to discuss the results obtained from the POLI~MODE and GATE programs. '['he
principal ob~ective of the POLI?~tODE program is a srudy of the synoptic variabil-
ity of currents in the Atlantic Ocean, and in particular, eddy formations in the
97
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFF(CIAL USE ONI,Y
ocean. The ~iscovery of eddies in the ocean was a-major event in modern ocean-
ology. The existence of eddies considerably changes o~r ideas concerning proces~-
es in the ocean and brings to the forefront a number of problems new for oceanol-
ogy, to the soZution of which the POLIMODE program is directed.
~ne of the largest international expeditions of recent years was the expedition
under rhe GATE program. Although the expedition was for the mosc part directed
to the study of atmospheric pr~cesses, a c}~c1e of oceanological investigations
uas carri.ed out in the course of the experiment. In particular, it was possible
to obtain t?~r~ ~~�:r_. izati.ve charact~risrics of the system of equatorial c~urrents
and espe_~~lly such u complex phenoa~enon as the meanclering of currents in the sur-
face layer and at the deep horizons. A study was made of the variability of equa-
torial and tropical westerly currents and especially the subsurface Lomonosov
Countercurrent. A study of long-wave movements in this current (waves with a
length of about 3,000 km) made it possihle to obtain information on tt~e variabil-
ity of the thermodynamic characteristic~~ of tropical waters and to make an ap-
proa~h to solution of. the problem of the formation of heat anomalies in the trop-
- ical zone of the Atlantic caused by meandering af the subsurface current in the
horizc.~ntal and vertical ~lanes and its emergence at the surface.
Investi~ations of the principal regions of the Pacific Ocean made it possible to
obtain serious results for a complex and most dynamically active xegion of the
ocean affected by the Kuroshio. Quantitative estimates were obtained of the vari-
abil.ity of oceanographic fields in this region, the meandering of the main and
secondary currents of the Kuroshio system, and also the thermodynamic characteris-
tj.cs of the principal quasiconstant u~eanders and circulations.
During recent years a major step has been taken in study of. the tropical zone of
the Paci.fic Ocean, and in particular, important conclusions were drawn with re-
spect to the processes associated with the heat reserve of tropical waters and the
thermal anomalies in these regions, on which, in tt~e last analysis, the heat regime
_ of the Kuros'~io system and the hydrological conditions in the northwestern part of
the ocean, one of the principal fishing regions of this ocean, are denendent.
During the Eleventh Five Year Plan in situ investigations of. water cir.culation
in the ocean and its variability at different time scales will be continued both
in connection with implementation of the "Razrezy" project and ~n a number of in-
dependent projects, such as "POLEKS-Sever," "Yuzhnyy okean," "Vestpak," "Tayfun"
and c~thers.
In the implementation of expeditionar.y stt~dies under thQ mentioned projects provis-
ion. is made for an investip,ation of the structure of circulation of waters in the
energy-active zones of the world ocean an~i the variability of the principal ocean
currents, study of the interaction betwc~~n the ACC and macroscale circulations in
the subtropical regions and in the regicns to the sotath of the ACC, instrumental
investigations of the eddy structure of individual regior~s of the ocean and obtain-
ing of quantitative estimates of the transport of antarct�ic intermediate and Uot-
tom waters into adjacent regions of the wor13 ocean.
no
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400404070048-2
hOR OFFICIAi. USE ONLY
In discussing the prospects for further fundamental investigations in the field
of oceanology it is first and foremost necessary to emphasize the important role
of theoretical studies directed to an investigation of the dynamics and thermal
state of tr~ waters of the world ocean. Such problems as formulation of models of
general circulation of the ocean, mesoscaie variability, formation of the density
structure of the active layer and macroscale interaction between the ocean and the
atmosphere must be developed still further, especially at the organizations and
scientific research institutes of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology* since
the practical aspects of these problems are usually beyond the scope of the inst-
_ itutes of the USSR Academy of Sciences.
In the field of practical investigations studies dirccted to the creation of ineth~~-
ods for sea hydrological predictions, including ice predictions for arctic and
freezing seas, are of great importance. In the past special emphasis in our
country has been placed on the development of phyeicostatistical methods for sea
predictions. Experience shows that future su:~cesses in the field of sea and ice
predictions must be tied in to the development of inethods based on hydrothermo-
dynamic models of predicted processes. Some results have already been attained
in this direction. Hydrodynamic methods for predicting the redistribution of ice
in arctic seas, a method for predicting the growth and melting of ice, and a method
for predicting the thickness and temperature of the homogeneous layer in the North
Atlantic have been developed and are in use. A method for predicting wind waves
on the basis of a bispectral model is in the introduction stage. Plans call for
the further development and creation of inethods for predicting the temperature
distribution in the active layer of the ocean, predicting the temperature field
in seas and bringing about further improvement in methods for predicting waves
and levels on the basis of hydrodynamic models.
An important task here is the proper relationship in the development of fundamen-
. tal and practical investigations at the institutes of the State Committee on Hy-
drometeorology and their mutual enrichment.
The following results have been attained in work on the study of sea ice covers
of the polar regions and their dynamics.
I. It has been established on the basis of materials collected during the last
four decades that changes in the ice cover of the Arctic Ocean occur consistently
with changes in the thermal regime of zhe atmosphere for the hemisphere; it was
found that an important role is played by the structure of the salinity field of
the upper layer of the ocean in the formation, propagation and stability of the
ice cover. The decisive importance of the halocline for the existence of the ice
or ice-free regime of the Arctic Ocean has been established. The conclusion that
= the arctic ice cover is resistant to changes in external climate-forming factors
ha5 been confirmed. It was discovered that under modern conditions the principal
regulator of the areas of arctic ice has been a change in the area of propagation
of the halocline, organically related to freshened surface waters.
On the basis of investigations of inesoscale dynamic processes in the most variable
marginal zone of the arctic sea cover it was possible to clarify the principal
features of the structure of drift fields in this zone, the characteristics of
99
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
F()R ()F'FIC'IAI. t tti~ (1N1.1'
- deformation of the ice cover were established and the influence of different fac-
tors on the dynamics of sea ice was ascertained.
Specizlists have developed a physicomathematical model of change in the state of
the i~e cover in a.rctic seas during the summer in which for the first time an al-
lowance has been made for a number of thermal and dyna~ic processes exerting a
substantial influence on changes in the thickness, continuity and other character-
istics of the ice cover. On the basis of this model it was possible to create a
mimerir_al method for computing and predicting ice distribution in the western
arctic seas.
A new direction is being developed in investigations in the field of improvement
in zhe nethodological principles f~r prediction work for the purpose of objectiv-
= i.zation of the search for optimum predictors in hydrometeorological fields and de-
- veZopment of progno~tic schemes for different times in advance. The preli.minary
- results ~.uhich have been obtained have indicated a great promise of this direction
for l~~ng-range ice prediction.
A meth~d has been developed for mapping the distributior. and dynamics of sea ice
on the basis of television photographs of artificial earth ~atellites. This meth-
od includes a system of interpretation criteria making it possible to determine
the principal characteristics of the ice cover and an operational graph-optical
method for geographical tie-in ensuring a high accuracy in the plotting of ice
boundaries and features.
In the south polar region, on ttie basis of materials from satellite observations,
it has been passible to establish the principal spatial characteristics of dis-
tribution of the ice cover, the main position of ice masses has been clarified and
preliminary results have been obtained on the seasonal and long-term variability
of the ice cover in the Antarctic Ocean.
II. One of the urgent tasks in the field of further study of th2 ice cover is the
crEation of a global system for the collection, processing and dissemination of
ice infonnation, Accordingly, in the years immediately ahead there will be a
'changeover from visual methods for ice aerial reconnaissance to instrumental meth-
ods on the basis of the extensive use of artificial earth satellites, aircraft
outfitted wit:~ side-viPw radar sets af the "Nit"' system, thickness gages, IR
- radiometers and profilometers. The collection, processing and dissemination of
- information will be automated within the framework of the ice information system
being crEate3 at the present time.
Work will be continued on investigations of the physical laws of formation of the
ice cover and the mechanisms of spatial-temporal variability of ice conditions in
the oceans and seas for the purpose of ~:i~edictions.
In che Antarctic Ocean region the main efforts will be concentrated on detecting
the long-term tendencies and patterns ei development of the ice cover and evalu-
ating the influence of changes in the i~e cover on the dynamics of climate in the
so~.~th polar region.
100
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
I~tuc ~iEt~t~ t.~~ t~�.~. i~-vt ~
Among the most impor~ant scientific and technical problesns of the present day
are the problems of investigating the ecological consequences of chemical con-
taminations of waters of the world ocean (including oceans, seas and estuaries)
and the development of scientifically sound proposals and measurea for prevention
of their negative effects on the earth's ecology.
Ten years of investigations by the leading oceanographic institutes of our country
have made it possible to draw a number of important conclusions on this problem,
to wit:
the propagation of a number of contaminating substances (especiaily petroleum
and organochlorine hydrocarbons) with exceeding of the maximum admissible concen-
_ trations h.as a global character;
the ~oncentration of these substances in the surface microlayer considerably
changes the physicochemical properties of the water at the surface of the seas
and oceans (surface tension, viscosity, chemical composition, heat capacity, selec-
tive absorption of short-wave radiation, etc.);
the petroleum film in the seas and on the shelf zones extends over an area oc-
cupying about 10% of the area of the world ocean.
The ~rediction of the dynamics of levels of water contamination in the North Atlan-
tic and the northern part of the Pacific Ocean, prepared at the State Oceanograph-
ic Institute, indicates that by 1990 the mean conc.entrations of petrole~m hydro-
carbons will increase by a factor of 2-2.5 and the area of coverage of the ocean
surface will increase up to 20%.
According t~ the experimental computations of the Main Geophysical Observatory and
the State Oceanographic Institute, at the present time and. in the future the pene-
tratior. of photosynthetically active radiation in the ocean will be lessened by
- 10-40% over the area of the Atlantic, being 10 and 20% of its entir2 area respec-
- tively.
According to investigations of the Al1-Union Scientific Research Institute of Fish-
ing and Oceanography, in the case of Iow concentrations of petroleum products and
pesticides the rate of. photosynthesis of sea algae is reduced on the average by 25%.
In the 1960's-1970's in the North Atlantic there was an intensifying decrease in
the number of species of phytoplankton and a decrease in the biomass of zooplank-
ton forms. Among the factors aggravating the negative effect of petroleum is the
large-scale superposing of the fields of maximum contamination on areas of maximum
biomass and productivity in the world ocean.
Acc~ording to investigations of the Main Geophysical Observatory, carried out using
a three-level model of atmospheric circulation and on the assumption that about
25�0 of the area of the North Atlantic is covered by films, it was established that
there is a significant (up to 20-25%) decrease in evaporation from the ocean sur-
face and this in turn leads to a maximum decrease in zonal precipitation in the
latitude zone 30-50�N by 0.6-0.8 mm per day and to an in.crease in aridity in North
Africa.
'I'lle investigations of the contamination of waters in the world ocean carried out
during the Tenth Five Year Plan bring to the forefront problems which are re-
l~ited to an evaluation of the influence of chemical contaminations on the ecosys-
rems of the most productive regions of the world ocean (shelf and frontal zones,
101
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400404070048-2
FOR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY
marginal and epicontinental seas, circumpolar zone, estuaries), formulating a pre-
diction of the dynamics of the level of contamination and its in�luence on the
ecosystem and determination of the maximum admissible discharges through the prin-
cipal channels for the entry of contaminating substances into the sea. Also of
great importance is an evaluation of the consequences of chemical contaminations of
the world ocean on the energy-, heat-, gas- and moisture exchange of the ocean with
with the atmosphere, the prediction of these consequences and their influence on
the earth's climate, including the development of ineasures for preventing the
chemical contamination of the surface and the active layer of the oceans and seas.
' An urgent practical problem closely related to the problem of study of contamina-
tion of the seas and oceans, brought to the forefront by the modern level of the
economy and i.ndustry in the well-developed countries, is the problem of monitoring
of ttie disposal of wastes and other materials in the sea. The basis for the dis-
posal of wastes in the seas and oceans is the great oxidizing capacity of the
waters of the world ocean, making it possible to rework a considerable volume of
organic and also inorganic substances. However, the localizatiQn of wastes in in-
dividual water bodies has the result that these basins are saturated with contam-
inants, the destruction processes do not affect the entire mass of wastes and the
quality of sea water here deteriorates sharply.
During the Tenth Five Year Plan investigations of hydrometeorological conditions
on the shelf zone of the world ocean and national seas were made and in these inves-
tiga~ions descriptions of hydrometeorological conditions in the shelf zone were
prepared. A new approach was developed for study of the dynamic characteristics
of the hydrological regime of seas, the basis for which is computation of waves,
currents, level and ice drift on the basis of data on the wind field regime over
the sea. This will make it possible to obtain the spatial characteristics of the
hydrometeorological regime of sea areas, including those for which there are few
or no observations.
In the field of study of the shelf in the coming five year plan it is proposed that
multis~ded hydrometeorological investigations be made of the seas of the USSR,
their stielfzone and the mouths of rivers for the purpose of exploitation of re-
sources and preservation of the sea. The essence of the investigations is a system-
atic generalization of the totality of present-day kn~wledge of the hydrometeorol-
- ogy of the seas, processes and phenomena in their interrelationship and irterac-
tion, a study of the patterns of formation of the fields of oceanographic elements
and their variability with time, an improvement in the ~xisting physical and mathe-
matical models and the formulation of new models, making it possible to fill the
gap in our knowledge concerning the regime of seas and formulate scientific prin-
ciples for control of the regime of the seas for lessening or eliminating the nega-
tive consequences of anthropogenic effects on the sea. The plan calls for the im-
plementation of special additional investigations of an experimental and theoretical
character on the basis of available in situ experimental data and theoretical re-
search, as well as the preparation of a monographic generalization of the hydro-
, meteorology of most of the seas in the Soviet Union.
In examining the prospects for oceanologicai investigations, it is impossible not
to mention some practical problems which in their national economic importance at
the present time have become especially important. In particular, this applies to
102
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USF. ONI.Y
the problem of the influence of a deficit of continental fresh-water runoff into
the seas and oceans. Recently there was a change in the entry of river waters
into the seas and oceans bath as a result of natural factors and as a result of
man's economic activity. DLring the last 10 years 3,000 1~3 of fresh water have
been withdrawn without returno and in the future this quantity will increase
still more. As a result of the decrease in the level of the Caspian Sea alone
there will be a loss of about 1,000 km3, which will exceed the present-day losses
by a factor of two, whereas at the beginning of the century they were only 400
lan3. The intensive change in the entry of fresh water into the seas and oceans
_ will exert a substantial influence on the regime of the world ocean. especially in
its coastal regions and seas, which in turn exerts a negative effect on the bio-
logical productivity of these regions. These processes transpire most intensive-
ly in the connecting link of fresh sources (rivers) and seas in the mouth re-
gions of rivers where the interrelationship between the plant and animal wotlds
and their habitat changes tens and hundreds of times more rapidly than in other
regions of the earth's land and water media.
The above-mentioned complex of scientific problems quite fully demonstrates how
many difficult and at the same time important problems are facing oceanographers,
who must combine all their efforts and clearly coordinate the plans for their fur-
ther scientific investigations in order to carry out tasks of great importance
the most complete possible study of the world ocean for creating the scient3fic
principles for the use of its resources for the well-being of the Soviet people.
103
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
bYIR OtFI('i.~l. t~C6: (1N1.1'
UDC 556.(16:18)(47+57)
PRINCIPAL RESULTS AND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVESTIGATIONS IN THE FIELD
OF HYDROLOGY IN REI,tiTION TO THE PROBLEMS OF SHIFTING OF PART OF TI~ RUNOFF OF
NORTHERN RIVERS TO THE SOUTH*
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 (manuscript received
9 Dec 80) pp 37-98
[Article by A. A. Sokolov, professor, State Hydrological Institute]
[Text] Abstract: The author briefly examines the prin-
cipal results of hydrological investigations
in the Tenth Five-Year Plan and the tasks of
hydrology in the light of the Principal Direc-
tions in Economic ar.d Social Development of the
USSft during the Period 1981-1985 and for the
Period Ending in 1990.
In connection with the increase in. the role of the water factor in economic and soc-
ial development, investigatibns in the field of hydrology of the land during recent
years have considerably expanded and have acqu~red a particularly great timeliness.
They have been directed to solution of the problems formulated by the Party and the
government for the rational use and conservation of water resources. The State Hy-
drological Institute has about 20 scientific subdivisions, two ma~or experimental
bases (t:~e Valday Scientific-Research Hydrological I.aboratory and the Main Experi-
mental Base of the State Hydrological Institute), ~a computation center and experimen-
tal-production workshops. Each year it organizes a number of major expeditions in
the Far East, in Western Siberia, in the Trans-Volga region and in other regions of
the USSR.
The principal scientific and practical problems on whose solution the State Hydro-
logical Institute has worked during the Tenth Five-Year Plan, are:
formulation of the principles and scientific-methodological basis for a national
system for observations of the regime, balance and quality of surface waters;
study of the water resources and water balance of river basins, economic regions
of the territory of the USSR, continents and earth;
* Main content of a report at an expanded session of the Presidium of the Scientific
and Technical Council, State Committee on Hydrometeornlogy and Environmental Mon-
itoring, 13 October 1980.
104
- FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFiC1AL IJSE C1Ni.l'
formulation of inethods for evaluating anthropogenic changes in the regime, bal-
ance and quality of waters and prediction of these changes over the long run, tak-
ing into account the growth of population and the development of the national econ-
omy;
- hydrological support of the planned measures for the interzonal redistribution
of river runoff;
study of hydrological phenomena and processes and development of inethods for com-
puting the elements of the hydrological regime for planning and construction;
investigation of sediments, channel processes and formulation of inethods for com-
puting and predicting channel deformat3ons and water erosion in the planning of
antierosion measures, water intaices, petroleum and gas lines across rivers and oth-
er engineering structures;
improvement in hydrological predicti4ns for the support of water management and
other branches of the national economy;
hydrological support for the largest national economic measures, construction
projects and territorial-industrial complexes.
We will briefly discuss the principal results and prospects for investigations of
the mentioned problems.
Problems in the Development and Improvement of the Hydrological Network
The network of points for hydrological observations is the basis for the development
i of hydrological science and filling the needs of the national economy. Accordingly,
i the State Hydrological Institute has devoted and is devoting great attention to the
problem of its development and improvement.
During recent years the State Hydrological Tnstitute has revised at a modern level
and has regublished regulations, instructions and manuals on observations in the
hydrological network which will ensure unity and comparability of ineasurements.
At the present time, in connection with the aggravation of the water problem, there
is an on-going transformation of the entire system for registry, integration and
processin~ of hydrological data. A unified system for a national inventory of
waters and their use in the national economy is being created. This system is intend-
ed to bring together, on a unified scientific-methodological basis, the network of
t observations of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology, t~e USSR Geology Ministry
~ and the USSR Water Mz~nagement Ministry,taking in the regime and quality of all types
I of waters: rivers, lakes, glaciers, ground waters and seas, taking into account the
; use of_ waters in the national economy.
The unified system for the inventory of waters, as indicated by the experience of
its introduction, makes possible a considerable increase in the level of hydrolog-
ical support of the needs of the national economy. At a new level it mak~s it pos-
sible to solve one of the most complex problems restoration of the natural regime
of runoff and determination of non-return losses in regions with intensive economic
activity.
In connection with the introduction of a unified system for the inventory of waters,
the methodological and instrument-apparatus complex of network observations is ex-
periencing radical changes. Its improvement is directed to an increase in the
105
FOR OFFICIA;. JSE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
reli3bility of hydrological information, an acceleration of ineasurements and the
i.ntroduction of new measurement techniques (ultrasound, radar, aerospace methods).
With allowance for modern water management problems the State Hydrological Institute
has formulated principles for optimizing systems for hydrological observations, the
makeup, frequency and accuracy of ineasurements.
On this basis the State Hydrological Institute, in collaboration with the administra-
tions of the Hydrometeorological Service, has prepared a plan, being implemented at
the present time, for the rationalization, development and technical outfitting of
the hydrological network in 1975-1980.'This plan provides for measures for eliminat-
ing somz lag, observed in recent decades, in the quantitative growth and qualitative
condition of hydrological posts, behind the rates of development of the country's
water economy, especially in its Asiatic part in the Far East, in Western and
Eastern Siberia.
The network wi11 include about 8,000 river posts of which 3,500 will be c~ntrol (key)
posts; there will be.an increase in the percentage of "informational" posts (up to
60%), especially in the basins of large reservoirs. During the years of the Tenth
Five-Year Plan the increase will be more than 900 posts.
During recent years there has been a considerable increase in the role of the State
_ Hydrological Institute and zonal scientific resear~h institutes in the organization-
al and methodological dir~ction of the network. It can be stated with satisfaction
- that multisided inspections have acquired regularity and effectivenesa.
In connection with the noted plans for the interzonal redistribution of river runoff
the State Hydrological Institute has been formulating methodological principles and
proposals for creating an observation system ensuring the collection of the most re-
liable information for the planning and refinement of prediction of changes in thP
regime, balance and quality of waters in the regions of withdrawal, transport and
use of the shifted runoff.
In discussing the problems related to the hydrological network it is impossible not
to note that the technical outfitting of the network and the level of hydrological
instrument making still. do not correspond to modern requirements. The State Committee
on Hydrometeorology adopted a resolution on the creation (jointly with the Instrument
Making Ministry) of assembled ~omplexes of hydrometeorological instruments. The im-
plementation of this resolution will be of the greatest importance for the develop-
ment of hydrological science.
Water Resources, Water Balance and Water Inventory
In connection with the increase in water consumption, the development and implementa-
tion of ineasures for the rational use and conservation of water resources, the State
Hydrologi~al Ii~stitute, in collaboration with the administrations of the Hydrometeor-
ological Service, has carried out a careful inventorying of the secular reserves and
- renewable resources of fresh waters. Methods have been developed for computing all
the components of the hydrological cycle: precipitation, runoff, evaporation, changes
in the reserves of ground and soil water. As a result of the~e investigations it has
been possible to estimate the water balance, water resources and water supply of the
106
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
country as a whole, union republics, individual regions, river and sea basins.
These data served as the basis for long-range plans for the multisided use of
water resources in the USSR.
The basis for the planni:~g of the use of water resources is the materials from the
State Water Inventory (SWI), constituting a systematized summary of information
on USSR water resources. The multivolu~e edition of the inventory, being the prin-
cipal source of data on the water resources of the USSR, will consist of three
series: 1) information on the extent of hydrological study of territories, 2) prin-
cipal hydrological characteristics (PHC), 3) regional reference manuals on the re-
sources of surface waters.
- The second series is the most important inventory series for the national economy.
It will be systematically supplemented with new data, which will make it possible
to maintain information on water resources at a modern level.
The systematizing of data on water resources and the compilation of a water inven-
~ tory manually, as indicated by experience, would require enormous efforts and to-
gether with publication would require IO-15 years. During this time the data in-
cluded in the inventory would become out-of-date.
In this connection the State Committee on Hydrometeorology, the USSR Geology Min-
istry and the USSR Water Management Ministry have been assigned the task of creat-
ing an automated system for the State Water Inventory taking in all types of waters
. and data on the use of water resources in all branches of the national economy.
The technical specifications for an automated data system for the State Water Inven-
tory have now been developed, work is being done on creating a datia bank. The gen-
eralization of these data using an electronic computer will make it possible to
provide an operational uuodern evaluation of the state of water resources and the
water balance of the country.
The State Hydrological Institute, in collaboration with the All-Union Scientific
Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Center and the
scientific organizations of the USSR Geology Ministry and the USSR Water Manage-
ment Ministry, has done much work on determining the makeup and format of inventory
publications. Methodological recommendat3ons have been drawn up and introduced on
the preparation of annual data on the resources of surface and ground water and
on their use.
In the Eleventh Five Year Plan the automated system for the SWI should be complete-
ly introduced into operation. On its basis the State Hydrological Institute, the
All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Hydrology and Engineering Geology and
the Central Scientific Research Institute for the Multisided Study of Water Re-
sources during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan are planning to prepare a new edition
of the USSR Water Inventory in which there will b e a generalization of data on sur-
face and ground water resources and an analysis of the present-day water balance
for. individual regior.s, river basins and the country as a whole.
107
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
A major attainment is the work carried out by the State Hydrological Institute in
collaboration with t:he Main Geophysical OUservato~~y, Arctic an.d Antarctic Sci-
entific Research Institute, Institute of Water Resources and Geological Institute,
USSR Academy of Sciences on study of the global hydrological cycle at the scale of
the entire earth. The results of these investigations have been published in the
monograph MIROVOY VODNYY BALANS I VODNOGO BALANS I VODNYYE RESURSY ZII~l.LI (World
Water Balance and Water Resources of the Earth) and the ATLAS MIROVOGO VODNOGO BAL-
ANSA (Atlas of the World Water Balance). These fundamental studies have been pre-
sented as a contribut~on of Soviet scientists to the program for the International
Hydrological Decade.
_ The monograph and atlas give a generalization of the resuTts of Soviet and foreign
investigations of the moisture cycle and water balance of the earth. New data are
given on the water reserves on the earth, their distribution over areas, periods
of natural renewal of individual types of natural waters; there are also computa-
tions of the water balance of major river basins, natural water bodies, reservoirs,
regions and continents, the world ocean and the entire earth's surface. Taking in-
to account the great interest in these published studies, by a resolution of
UNESCO they have been published in the English and Spanish languages.
In the Eleventh Five-Year Plan pravision is made for the development of investiga-
tions of the world water balance, bearing in mind the evaluation of natural and
anthropogenic changes in total moistening at different space and time scales for
the water regime of rivers, lakes, ground water, glaciers, continents, the `aorld
ocean and the earth as a whole.
Anthropogenic Changes of Water Resources
The problem of quantitative and qualitative changes in the water regime and water
balance during recent years has become especially acute as a result of the ever-
lncreasing effect exerted on hydrological processes by anthropogenic factors and
the appearance of a threat of quantitative and qualitative exhaustion of water
resources.
Investigations of this complex problem are being made on a broad front by many
scientific institutes of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology, USSR Academy of
Sciences, USSR Water Management Ministry, USSR Geology Ministry and other minis-
- tries and departments under the unified plan of the State Committee on Science
and Technology.
As a result of these investigations conclusions were drawn having great scientific
and practical importance for the pla~ning, rational use and conservation of water
resources, for solving problems relating to internal seas, validation of the vol-
umes, times and regime for shifting part of the runoff of northern rivers to the
south.
For the first time on a unified methodological basis, with the broad use of mater-
ials from long-term hydrometeorological observations, an evaluation was made of
the changes in the annual runoff of the principal rivers of the USSR, inflow into
- internal seas and the total river runoff of individual regions in the country as
a whole under the influence of economic activity during the period from 1936
through 2000.
_ 108
FOR OFFIC[AL iJSE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OF~ICIAL USE ~NI,Y
The most intensive change in the runoff of the southern rivers of the country, as
indi^ated by investigations, began from 1955-1960 (Fig. 1). By 1975 the mean an-
nual runoff at th.e mouths of the Dnepr, Don, Kuban', Dnestr, Ural, Ili, Syrdar'ya,
Amudar'ya, Terek and Sulak had decreased in comparison with the natural period by
17-30%. A still more significant decrease in the runoff of the southern rivers of
the USSR must ~e anticipated over a long per~od. Already by 1985 the annual runoff
of many rivers, for the most part as a result of irrigation in basins, will de-
crease by 30-50%, and by 2000 by 40-80%.
As a result of the investigations it was possible to determine not only the total
decrease in runoff, but also to ascertain the r61e of individual anthropogenic
factors (irrigation, drainage, urbanization, etc.) in this process (Fig. 2).
The fundamentally nzw conclusions drawn with respect to possible changes in river
rtmcff under the influence of anthropogenic factors in extremal cases, in years
with exceptionally little and abundant water, are of great scientific and practical
importance. In particular, it was established that for most of the river basins in
years wirh a very small water volume the absolute decrease in runoff under the in-
fluence of economic activity will be considerably greater than in average years
and especially in years with an abundance of water and sufficiently moistened
- years.
KEY: ~ ~
,x
~ ~ ~ o.:o
- 1) Volga ; ~
2) Do n wo i ,y
3) Ural iI
4) Dnestr eo ~ ~ yAQ~
~ ~ ~
5) Dnestr ~ ~ ~,.~o
6) Kura ~ sp ~ ~ ,4y~
7) Terek + Sulak H~ ~
8) Ob' ~ ~ ~
9) Syrdar'ya o0 f9o ' ,
10) Kuban' ~ ~ f ~~AO
11) Amuda r' ya Bo ~~"�c~ 7
' 12 ) I 1 i `f~y '
1/0 SO �
13) Yenisey ~ ~
14 ) Amu r Ia �o ~ a C~'~d0
15) Severnaya Dvina ~aar I i '
16) Pechcra ~00~ ~
17 ) Neva f0o~ Mvo
18) Zapadnaya Dvina fpp[ ~ ' ~~�oP
19 ) Lena ~oo[ I cea./1e~NC ;
~oa ~ Heeo
~o~
~~L ~~~0
~9~0 1lIO ' f9/0 znae
Fig. 1. Change in the mean annual runoff of ri~~e_rs of the USSR under the influ-
ence of economic activity during 1936--2000. For the Kura, Terek and Sulak, Syrdar'-
ya, Amudar'ya and Ili Rivers the normal runoff at the mouth was assigned the value
100% for a conventional natural period; for others the natural water re~ources
of the basin were assigned this value.
109
- FOR OFF[CIAL U~E ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~3Jyear '
AY RM J/rod �
( P a ~ v e m ~ l)potnol ,
ed
240
1
~ S
i
.I
160 I ~
i ~
~
i
00
- i .
I
~
~ 1940 1960 19d0 100
~
_ Fig. 2. Dynamics of changes in river runoff in the USSR under the influence of
economic activity. 1) decrease in. total river runoff in USSR, including: 2) for
rivers of the southern regions of the USSR, 3) for the rivers qf Siberia and the
Far East, 4) for the rivers of the northern slope of the European USSR, 5) de-
crease in river runoff in the USSR due to nonreturn water losses in basins (with-
out accumulation in reservoirs).
If the total river runof� of the USSR as a whole is considered, its ea~r~e~se~�3/der
the influence of economic activity is small and in 1940 was 14 km3/y
by 1975 it had attained 92 km3/year (2.2Y), and without allowance for the accum-
ulation of water in reservoirs 72 km3/year. By 1985 it is expected that there
will be a decrease by 170-175 km3/year 4%), and by 2000 by 240-250 km3/year
5.5%); without allowance for accumulation in reservoirs these values are about
130 and 190 km3/year respectively.
The principal decrease in runoff will occur in the rivers of the basins of the
Black Sea, Sea of Azov, Caspian Sea, Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash, where already
by Z975 there had been a decrease in runoff on the average by 13%, but a still more
significant decrease is anticipated ~n the future: by 1985 on the average by
23%, and by 2000 by 3I%. At the present time the rivers of the southern regions
with natural resources of river runoff estimated at approximately 540 km3/year, or
- 12% of the total river runoff of the USSR, account for 78% of the total decrease
in river runoff in the country under the influence of economic activity.
An analysis of the role of individual anthropogenic factors in the change of river
runoff in the USSR during the considered period indicated that beginning with the
modern period and in the future irrigation will become the principal factor in
economic activity, favoring the greatest decrease in annual river runoff.
The conclusions drawn as a result of the investigations of the State Hydrological
Institute were sent to planning oXganizations and were used in preparing a sci-
entific and technical prediction of the multisided use and conservation of water
resources in the USSR during the period up to 1990.
At the present time investigations o~ the influence of anthropogenic factors on
river runoff are continuing in the direction of a refinement of predictions of
changes in the regime, balance and Quality of waters.
110
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFF'iCIAL USE ONLY
The following is proposed for the immediate fut~re:
improvement in methods for evaluating the influence of economic activity on
t~e hydrological regime, including the use for these purposes of mathematical
models of the formation of river runoff in watersheds;
preparation of recommendations on the restoration of natural river runoff and
allowance for the influence of individual types of economic activity on the ele-
ments of the hydrological regime of rivers under different physiographic condi-
tions;
in the example of a large river drainage basin with the intensive use of water
resources (of the Volga River type) formulate a simulated mathematical model of
the formation and use of runoff for a quantitative evaluation and prediction of
the influence exerted on the hydrological regime by the most diversified combina-
tion of natural and anthropogenic factors operative in the drainage basin.
The solution of these problems will make possible the effective and scientifically
sound implementation of the functions assigned to the State Committee on Hydro-
meteorology with respeet to the monitoring of natural water bodies which are in
intensive economic use.
Hydrometeorological Validation of Interzonal Redistribution of Water Resources
The interzonal redistribution of water resources with respect to its scales, nation-
al economic importance and influence on the environment is among the most important
scientific and technical problems of the day. The necessity for carrying out such
work is dictated by ob,jective factors: the extremely nonuniform natural distribu-
tion of water resources over the territory of the country, the acute shortage of
water resources in the economically most developed part of the country and the
need for fresh water in internal water bodies, especially the Caspian Sea, Sea
of Azov and the Aral Sea, for maintaining their biological productivity.
There are many proposals, schemes and variants of interzonal redistribution of
water resources, among which the best developed in planning respects are variants
of shifting of part of the runoff of the northern rivers of the European part to
the south and from the Ob' River from Belogor'ye village through the main canal for
the shifting of runoff to Kazakhstan and Central Asia.
The planned volume of the first stage in the shifting of part of the. runoff of the
northern rivers of the European USSR into the Volga basin in different schemes is
from 23 to 37 km3/year and for Siberian rivers 25 km3/year with a subsequent
increase to 60 km3/year.
As a result of the investigations carried out by the institutes of the State Com-
mittee on Hydrometeorology, the following data have been obtained:
for the northern rivers of the European USSR and Siberian rivers, from whose
basins plans call for the removal of runoff (Neva, Onega, Sukhona, Severnaya
Dvina, Pechora, Ob', Irtysh), preliminary quantitative estimates of the changes
in annual, seasonal and intraannual distribution of runoff, maximum water dis-
charges and le~aels, floodplain inundation processes, backwater phenomena, water
temperature, heat flow, freezing and breaking-up processes, chemical composition
of water for different posts along the lengths of rivers below the intended water
- intakes;
111
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL i15E ONLY
for the lakes of the northwestern USSR affected by any future shiftings of
runoff (Lakes Ladoga, Onega, Kubenskoye, Lacha and Vozhe), estimates in changes
in the water balance, level regime, systems of currenrs and water quality;
for the territory of Western Siberia, estimates of possible changes in the
structure and water-heat regime of swamp landscapes;
for the mouth reaches and seas of the arctic zone, ~omputation methods and mod-
els for evaluating changes in the water and channel regimes of multiarm deltas,
the dynamics of waters and contaminations, thermal regime of mouth embayments; pre-
liminary predictions of the future regimes of the mouth region of the Ob' River,
Kara and Pechora Seas;
for the main Irtysh-Central Asia channel for the shifting of waters, estimates
of the lateral inflow of water and sediments, computation of water losses on evap-
oration from the water surface, prelimirary data on channel processes, the balance
and regime of sediments, and also ice processes; approximate (with different as-
sumptions) predictions of water quality in the channel and data on the influence
of the channel on adjacent water bodies;
for regions to which the water is to be shifted, estimates of the possible
changes in the quality of water in the basins of the Volga, Kama, Amudar'ya and
- Syr3ar'ya, the hydrological regime at the mouths of southern rivers, total in-
flow, Zevel regime and salinity of internal seas in connection with the development
of economic activity in their basins and possible shiftings of runoff;
prelimin-ary estimates of changes in the meteorologicr~l regime and heat balance
of the underlying surface, moisture cycle in the atmosphere and climatic condi-
tions accompanying the shifting of part of the runoff of northern and Siberian
- rivers.
The results which have been obtained make it possible to draw a general, basic con-
clusion on the considered problem: the implemen*_ation of the first stage in shift-
ing part of the runoff of northern and Siberian rivers will not result in global
changes in hydrometeorological conditions; however, the planned measures may ex-
ert a substantial influence on the water regime and microclim3te of regions of re-
distribution of water resources, but this influence will have a local character.
The results of investigations and evaluation of changes in hydrometeorological con-
ditiorts under the influence of the interzonal redistribution of river runoff have
been published in the monograph MEZHZONAL'NOYE PERERASPREBELENIYE RECHNOGO STOKA
(Interz~nal Redistribution of River Runoff), in a collection of reports presented at
the Seventh Congress of the USSR Geographical Society and in the Transactions of the
State Iiydrological Institute, Arctic and Antarctic Scientific Research Institute,
Main Geophysical Observatory and State Hydrochemical Institute.
A promising variant af the shifting of the runoff of northern rivers, making pos~
sible the most complete solution of the problem of control of the regimes of the
Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov, is the shifting of the waters of the Onega River
with the construction of a reservoir for long-term regulation in Onega Bay. How-
ever, a more detailed scientific validation of this variant is required.
The first and foremost task in further investigations is a refinement of the pre-
liminary conclusions drawn concerning all the considered and additional hydrometeor-
ological characteristics applicable to different variants of the first and second
stages of redistribution of water resources on the basis of:
112
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
implementation of multisided expeditionary investigations in regions affected
by the shifting of runoff;
formulation of simulated mathematical models of the functioning of systems for
- the shifting of such waters, making it possible to take into account all possible
combinations of ineteorological conditions, water volume and economic use of waters
(including models of the mouth reaches of rivers and basins of internal seas) .
Study of Hydrological Phenomena and Processes and Improvement in Methods for
Engineering Computations
Engineering-hydrological computations, that is, determination of so-called computed
hydrological characteristics, lying at the basis o� projects for different kinds of
engineering structures, are one of the principal fields of practical application of
hydrological science.
For the development and improvement of computation methods the State Hydrological
Institute has carried out investigations of the patterns of formation of runoff
and other regime elements on the basis of an analysis and generalization of data
from long-term network observations. For a more profound understanding of the
mechani sm of hydrological phenomena and processes there have been extensive ex-
perimental field investigations at the Valday Scientific Research Hydrological Lab-
oratory, zonal water balance stations and laboratory investigations at the Main
Experimental Base of the State Hydrological Institute. These investigations made
possib 1 e a considerable development of the theoretical basis of runoff f~~rmation
processes, clarification of the role of different factors and formulatior,~ of phys-
icostat istical computation schemes.
A highly important achievement of the State Hydrological Institute was the work
; done in the 1960's and 1970's on analysis of the methods employed in practical en-
gineer ing for determining the so-called computed hydrological characteristics and
the preparation of an a~ll-union norm-setting document on hydrological computations
_ (SN-435 -72). This norm-setting document, for the first time in our country and
abroad, on a unified scientific-methodological basis regulates the determination
of the following c~mputed characteristics: annual runoff and its long-term fluctu-
ations; distribution of runoff within the year; muximum runoff of spring high water
and ra in-induced high water; minimum runoff; highest wate.r levels.
The use of the SN-435-72 in the national economy gave a high economic effect. In
the des igning of highways, roads and cities alone this saving wa3 about 20 million
rubles.
In 1980 the State Hydrological Institute, with the participation of other scientif-
ic and planning organizations, is preparing a second edition of this norm-setting
documen t on the basis of. a generalization of the experience of its use in engineer-
ing pra ctice in the course of the last eight years.
In addi tion to the national norms for determining the computed characteristics of
the hydrolo~ical regime, the State Hydrological Institute has prepared a number of
interd epartmental norms and has introduced them into practical work:
for computing evaporation from a water surface and from a land surface;
. for computing the silting of reservoirs;
113
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFICTAL USE ONLY
fur 'hy~lrul~?gtral va11~t;~tlun ~~t antierosion maasurca;
f~r computing channel deformations in designing river crossings for petroleum
and gas lines;
for designing dispersal outlets for waste waters, for dilution, mixing and self-
puz if icat ~on, etc .
In i:he Eleventh Five Year Plan it is proposed that there be further improvement in
_ engineering computation methods and an ir~crease in their accuracy. The planned re-
_ sear~ch, providing for an improvement in the mathematical model for the fortnation of
meltwater and rain runoff, will make it possible to take a new step on the path of
increasing the accuracy and reliability of engineering computations.
Plans also call for preparing a norm-setting document for taking into account the
influenc~ of economic activity in the designing of engineering structures and ter-
ritorial-industrial complexes. The introduction of this norm-setting document for
the first time wiZl make it possible to take into account the change in the water
regime ur.der the influence of economic activity not after, but prior to the imple-
- mentation of different water management measures.
Development of the The~ry of River Sediments and Channel Processes and its Use in
the Solution of Practical Problems
The study of channel processes occupies one of the important places in the activity
of the State Hydrological Institute. The hydromorphological theory of the channel
process developed at the State Hydrological Instituze and its practical applica-
tion for solution of many engineering problems has put the State Hydrological In-
stitute into the ranks of the leading scientific institutes in this field in our
country.
The stimulus for the development of a theory of sediments and channel processes
was the large-scale construction of water intakes, underwater gas and petroleum
lines, crossings of power transmission lines, bridge supports, dikes, navigation
and irrigation canals.
For the first time in engineering practice, at the State Hydrological Institute,
- on the basis of the hydromorphological theory of the channel process, recommenda-
_ tions have been formulated and put into practice for evaluating the channel process
in construction planning, in particular, in the planning of crossings for pipe-
lines and power transmission lines, outlets dispersing waste waters, etc.
In discussing the development of the theory of chan~nel processes in the works of
scientists at the State Hydrological Institute and their use for the solution of
practical problems it is impossible not to note the fundamental studies relating
to the poorly developed fields of prediction of the forming of shores of reser-
voirs and channel processes in the interbasin shifting of river runoff.
During recent years specialists at the State Hydrological Institute have general-
i~ed long-term investigati~ns of river sediments, this being finalized in the cre-
ating of the concept of a multisided science, taking in the theory and method for
computing the transport of sediments and geographical generalization of the para-
meters of sediment runoff. The results of these investigations, published in a
114
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
two-volume manograph, have been given a high evaluation by the State Committee on
Hydrometeorology (Glushkov-Uryvayev Prize).
Improvement of Methods for Hydrological Predictions
In connection with the deveZopment of the water economy and the construction of
the stages of gigantic reservoirs the role and importance of routine hydrological
predictions are constanily increasing.
The investigations of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center and the State Hydrolog-
ical Institute during the Tenth Five-Year Plan were directed to:
development of inethods for long-range predictions of the seasonal inflow of
water into major reservoirs on the rivers of the country and the runoff of unregul~
ated rivers in zones where these predictions are of great importance for the ser-
vicing of the national economy;
development of inethods for short-range predictions of discharges and levels in
rivers during a period of high water and rain-induced floods;
study of the processes of formation of surface runo~f and development of mathe-
matical models as a basis for the further development of inethods for long- and
short-range predictions.
Important results of studies in the first direction were:
development of inethods for long-range predictions of the seasonal inflow of
water and its distribution in time to the reservoirs on the Volga, Kama, Don and
Dnepr (USSR Hydrometeorological Center, State Hydrological Institute, Ukrainian
Scientific Research Institute), seasonal inflow into the Vilyuyskoye Reservoir
and in the future the reservoir for the Ragunslc~.ya Hydroelectric Power Station
- on the Vakhsh River (USSR Hydrometeorological Center);
_ development of a method for predicting spring runoff and the maximum discharges
, of high water in the Pechora basin in the zone of the future shifting of waters
- (USSR Hydrometeorological Center).
' In the field of short-range predictions of water discharges and levels the studies
' which were most important in practical results were the methods, approved by the
Cen~tral Methodological Commission, for short-range predictions of water inflow in-
tu Volga reservc~irs during the period of high water and the meltwater runo~f of
mountain rivers, based on the realization of ma.thema.tical models (USSR Hydrometeor-
ological Center). An important contributian was the work of the State Hydrological
Institut;~ on the i�mprovement of inethods for short-range predictions on the basis
of allowance for. the water reserves in the channel network.
Among the investigations in the third direction we should note studies for creating
- methods for computing heat and moisture transfer in the frozen soil and the indices
of water absorptivity of basins, also approved by the Central Methodological Com-
mission (State Hydrological Institute, USSR Hydrometeorological Center). The re-
sults of these investigations made possible a substantial refinement of the pres-
ently used methods for computing the losses of ineltwater during the period of
spring high water. .
_ As before, the most important practical problems in the field of hydrological pre-
dictions during the immediate future (5-10 years) remain the development and im-
p�rovement of inethods for predicting water inflow into reservoirs for different
- times in advance.
115
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400404070048-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
In order to achieve the further development of investigations in the field of hy-
drological predictions it is necessary to carry out a number of auxiliary stud-
ies. The following, in particular., can be mentioned:
during 1981-1982 development of a long-range plan for expanding the observation
: network and methods for computing and predicting the inflow of water to the pro-
jected major reservoirs of the USSR;
cr,~ation, in the example of the Volga and Ob' basins, of hydrometeorological
data banks on technical carriers, necessary for carrying out investigations and
developing methods for hydrological predictions;
improvement of inethods for computing the actual inflow of water into major res-
ervoirs during different time intervals (day, ten-day period, month, season) for
the purpose of subsequent publication of these data in the publications of the
- SWI and storage on technical carrier~.
In the field of fundamental investigations a task of hydro logical predictions in
the immediate future is the further development of unif ied models of the forma-
tion of inelt and rain water and investigations of individual processes associated
with this, especially the absorption and retention of inelt and rain water in river
basins.
At the present time a sort of transizional process is taking place in the field of
hydrological predictions: traditior.al methods have virtually reached the limit of
their capabilities, but mathematical modeling methods, deemed to alter '_-he situa-
tion in a better direction, remain unrealized. It is becoming increasingly evi-
dent that the methods and capabilities of hydrological predictions must be closely
tied in to the principles of the overall strategy for the use of water resources
and their control.
Among the problems in the sphere of ineteorological predictions on which the devel-
opment of hydrological predictions is dependenz, the following should be among the
iirst to be solved:
quantitative prediction of rain precipitation;
prediction of temperature and precipitation during the period of formation of
the spring high water.
Hydrological Validation of the Most Important National Economic. Measures
In addition to theoretical and experimental investigations of hydrological pheno-
mena and processes, duriug the Tenth Five Year Plan much work was carried out
which was directly related to the hydrological validation of the most important
measur~s of the Party and government on the development of the national economy.
In connection with the planned broad development of irrigated agriculture and
melioration of lands in the nonchernozem zone, at the State Hydrological Institute
over the course of the last 15 years investi~ations have been carried out which
are of great importance for increasing the yield of lands which can be improved.
At the State Hydrological Institute extensive investigations have been made of the
water and heat balances of irrigable lands in Rostovskaya Oblast, in the Northern
- Caucasus, in Kazakhstan, in Central Asia and in the Trans-Volga region.
As a result of 15 years of investigations, specialists at the State Hydrological
Institute have developed and are successfully introducing into the practice of ir-
rigated agriculture a new hydrometeorological method for ascertaining the shortage
116
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040400074008-2
F'UR UF'FICIAL US~: UNI.Y
of water supply for agricultural crops, relying on a detailed allowance for all
the components of the water and heat balances in an agricultural field. The ex-
perimental introduction of this mezhod in the Trans-Volga region over a period
of years revealed its high effectiveness (yield increment by 5-15~ or more). An
important characteristic of this method is the possibility for a scientific val-
idation not only of the irrigation norms and regime, but also the norms for non-
return water losses and the norms for water returned to the channel.
The results of long-term investigations for the hydrological validation of inelior-
ative measures in the arid zone have been published in the monograph GIDROLOGIYA
OROSHAYEMYKH ZEMII.' (Hydrology of Irrigated Lands) (Glushkov-Uryvayev Prize). At
the present time the method for determining irrigation norms and regimes develop-
ed at the State Hydrological Institute is being successfully introduced into the
automated control systems of water management systems in the Trans-Volga region.
The discovery of new deposits of petroleum and gas in the Ob' basin and in the
subpolar regions during recent years has laid the basis for intensive economic
exploitation of the northern part of the West Siberian Lowland. In this connec-
- tion, during the last 15 years specialists at the State Hydrological Institute,
under an agreement with Giprotyumen'neftegaz, have carried out multisided exped-
itionary investigations of swamps and swampy lands. Their main task has been ob-
- taining initial data and characteristics of the water regime necessary for the
development of engineering measures related to the drainage and exploitation of
' lands where petroleum and gas are being produced (Samotlorskoye, Shaimskoye, Fed-
orovskoye, Var'yegonskoye, Kholmogorskoye, Povkhovskoye, Komsomol'skoye, Uren-
goyskoye and other deposits).
~ The results of these investigations have been published in the monograph BOLOTA
j ZAPADNOY SIBIRI, IKH STROYENIYE I GIDROLOGTCHESKIY REZHIM (Swamps of Western
Siberia, Their Structure and Hydrological Regime). The TIPOLOGICHESKAYA KARTA
BOLOT ZAPADNO-SIBIRSKOY RAVNINY (Classification Map of Swamps on the West Siber-
j ian Plain) was compiled and published.
Investigations in Western Siberia will also be continued durtng the Eleventh Five-
; Year Plan.
, The construction of. the Baykal-Amur Railroad and the economic exploitation of ad-
jacent territories has brought to the forefront a whole series of problems related
to the almost complete lack of study of the hydrometeorological regime Af this ex-
' tensive territory. In this connection, in accordance with the instructions of the
State Committee on Hydromezeorology, the State Hydroingical Institute, in collabor-
ation with the administrations of the Hydrometeorological Service and other scien-
tific research institutes, since 1975 has been carrying out multisided expedition-
ary hydrometeorological investigations of water resources, the water balance, mud-
flows, high waters, ice encrustations and avalanches in the region of the Baykal-
Amur Railroad for validation of the planning, construction and sub~equent economic
exploitation of the territory of the Baykal-Amur Railroad.
The preliminary results of investigations by the State Hydrological Institute have
been generalized in the monograph VGDNYYE RESURSY BAM (Water Resources of the Bay-
k31-Amur Railroad Zone), containing recommendations nn computation of the main
117
FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OF~'ICIAL ttSE ONLY
hydruiuglcal charactr~ristics necessary for the planning of conetruction. Eleveu
specialists of the State Hydrological Institute have been awarded medals "For
Participation in Construction of the Baykal Amur Railroad " by the Presidium of
the RSFSR Supreme Soviet.
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan it is proposed that investigations in the Baykal-
Amur Railroad zone be continued and expanded. Particular attention will be devoted
to study and prediction of possible anthropogenic influences on hydrometeorological
conditions, water regime, water balance and quality.
In connection with the development of working of ore deposits by the strip method,
during which with a decrease in the ground water level there are radical changes in
the regime of surface waters, the State Hydrological Institute in preceding yQars
carried out extensive water balance investigations in the neighborhood of the Kursk
Magnetic Anomaly and the northwestern bauxite deposits. During the Tenth Five-Year
Plan similar investigations were carried out in the neighborhood of the Kartauzskiye
phosphorite deposits an~ in other places.
As a result of these investigations not only was a prediction given for the change
in the water balance in these regions, but materials were collected and conclusions
were drawn which are of great scientific importance for a study of the interaction
~ between surface and ground water. '

~ Among the investigations directly related to soluti~n of major water management I
problems we should mention multisided investigations of Lake Issyk-Kul' for clar-
ifying the reasons for a decrease in its level and the development of reco~nenda-
tions with respect to the quality of its waters and investigations of the hydrolog-
ical regime and present-day water balance of the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya basins
for the purpose cf predicting changes of inflow into the Aral Sea.
- Recently the State Hydrological Institute has been participating actively in solu-
tion of the Lake Sevan problem, working on a more precise determination of the
water balance in connection with measures for stabilizing its level.
During the Fleven+.h F3ve Year Plan the State Hydrologica~l Institute ia planning to
carrv out multisided investigations in the basin of Lake Balkhash.
During 1981-1985 plans cal.l for a further strengthening of the creative and profes-
sional relationships between the Sta.te Hydrological Institute and many planning and
production agencies.
118
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY
UDC 551.5:63
PRINCIPAL RESULTS OF AGROMETEOROL~~ICAL INVESTIGATIONS IN THE TENTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN
AND PROSPECTS FOR THEIR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
- Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 (manuscript received
16 Mar 81) pp 99-104
~ [Article by I. G. Gringof, candidate of biological sciences, and Yu. A. Khvalenskiy,
candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, All-Union Scientif ic Research Insti-
tute of Agricultural Meteorology]
[TextJ Abstract: The article gives the results of
agrometeorological investigations carried
out in the Tenth Five Year P].an t~y organ-
~ izations of the State Committee on Hydro-
~ meteorology, especially those organized by
I the Al1--Union Scientific Research Institute
~ of Agricultural Meteorology in 1977. Ways to
' briug about the further development of sci-
'i entific research work in the f~eld of agro-
meteorology are outlined.
; The long-range agrarian policy of the CPSU Central Committee provides for a further
' intensification of agriculture by means of inechanization, land improvement and in-
creased use of chemical fertilizers, and also the introduction of new high-yield
varieties of agricultural crops, ta'King into account the agrocTima.tic resources in
different soi~-climatic zones of our country.
The central task of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, as defir~ed in the "Principal Direc-
tions in the Economic and Social Development of the USSR for 1981-1985 and for the
Period Ending in 1990," adopted by the 26th CPSU Congress, is "ensuring the further
increase in the well-being of the Soviet people." The foodstuffs program is becom-
yPb g no~.~ gt3oA in tha rjei~al nn~r?T7t ~f t}1P agrarian DOZ~CV Of the Party.
The operational and scientific subdivisions of the State Committee on Hydrometeorol-
ogy are giving serious, ever-increasing assistance to the upgrading of agriculture.
Operational agrometeorological suFport of agriculture is based on scientifically
sound methods for evaluating and predicting the status, productivity and distribu-
tion of agricultural crops.
During the Tenth Five-Year Plan agrometeorological investigations have developed
at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center, Institute of Experimental Meteorology (All-
Union Scientif ic Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology), at all the
119
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
regional institutes and many hydrometeorological observatories and administrations
of the Hydrometeorological Service. One of the clear manifestations of the atten-
tion of the Party and the government to the development of scientific research in
the field of agrometeorology was the organization of the All-Union Scientific Re-
search Institute of Agricultural Meteorology (VNIISKhM Vsesoyuznyy Nauchno-Is-
sledovatel'skiy Institut Sel'skokhozyaystvennay Meteorologii) in late 1977.
The principal tasks of the r.ew institute are:
development and improvement of inethods for agrometeorological prediction of the
productivity of the principal agricultural crops and their introduction into the
routine practice of agrometeorological support of the country's agriculture;
investigation of a~roclimatic resources for the purpose of solving practical
problems in the effective distribution of agricultural crops, development and im-
plementation of the USSR Agroclimatic Survey;
formulation of recommendations on all~wance for weather conditions in carrying
out all types of agroengineering measures in agriculture;
development and i.mprovement of inethods and instruments for the remote evaluation
of the status and productivity of agricultural crops and natural pastures;
improvement of inethods and instruments for surface agrometeorological observa-
tions;
development of an automated subsystem for the collection, processing, transmis-
sion and storage of routine and regime agrometeorological information.
During the Tenth Five Year P1an there was serious development of investigations di-
rected to the development of the agrometeorological aspects of the quantitative
theory of the formation of yields of agricultural crops. As a result, the most com-
plete model of processes of energy and mass exchange in the "soil-plant-atmosphere"
_ system has been created. The task of computing the final productivity of an agro-
coenosis with known environmental conditions was formulated from beginning to end
as a boundary-value problem in mathematical physics. The solution of a closed sys-
tem of differential equations describing the exchange processes in tc:o contacting
media (surface air and the soil), joined together by plants, with boundary condi-
tions stipulated in the undisturbed atmosphere over crops and in the soil, makes it
_ possible to obtain the vertical prof iles for all heat balance components for a crop
of any stipulated structure growing on a soil with stipulated hydrophysical con-
stants.
The successes of theoretical investigations made it possible for the f irst time for
agrometeorological purposes to create a dynamic model of yield formation whose par-
ameters have already been identified for a number of the most important agricultur-
al crops: barley, clover, potatoes, spring wheat, etc. On the basis of "weather-
~i`y,~~~ 3~;,~mii,~ morlal ~ ir haG heen possible to develop methods for evaluating the ag-
rometeorological conditions for yield formation (for spring barley, clover, pota-
toes), and also to predict the m~an oblast yield of spring barley. For the first
- time it was possible to formulate a physicomathematical model for predicting the
wintering of winter grain crops. Some of these methods have already been introduced
into practical work or are in the production tests stage.
During the Eleventh Five Year Plan there is to be a further improvement in the
theory of agrometeorological pracesses. First of all there must be a more detailed
allowance for the dependence of plant growth processes on hydrometeorological
120
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
conditions and the conditions for mineral nutrition. Models must be formulated
making it possible to solve the problems involved in optimizing the water and
thermal regimes of plantings of agricultural crops, to evaluate the effectiveness
nf artificial modification work directed to the prevention or weakening of the
, negative consequences of the influence exerted on the yield by extremal liydro-
meteorological conditions. Studies in thi~ direction must lay the theoretical
basis for creating a new system for the agrometeorological support of agriculture
in our country.
The development and improvement of inethods for agrometeorological predictions of
the yield of agricultural crops have proceeded on a broad front: the yield of
_ grain crops and potatoes in the main regions of their cultivation, perennial
sown grasses in the nonchernozem zone of the RSFSR and in Kazakhstan, tea and sugar
beets in Georgia, cotton and vegetable-melon crops in Central Asia.
In cooperation with the hydrometeorological services, and meteorological services of
a number of oocialist countries the "Manual on Agrometeorological Predictions of
the Yield of the Priricipal Agricultural Crops" was prepared.
Efforts were undertaken for increasing the advance time for agrometeorological pre-
dictions. For example, methods were developed for predicting the yield of spring
wheat prior to sowing for a number of regions.
At the present stage it was possible to define clearly two directions �or the im-
provement of inethods for making agrometeorological predictions. These are governed
= by both the practical requirements for routine hydrometeorological support of ag-
riculture and advances in the f ield of mathematical modeling and development of re-
' mote methods for the collection of agrometeorological information. A number of ineth-
ods for predicting crop yield, for example, the yield of spring barley and potatoes,
i have already been developed for some regions of the country on a new methc~dological
basis in dynamic models of the growth, develapment and formation of crop produc-
tivity.
In the development of inethods for predicting yield more extensive use has been made
of new types of information obtained employing remote methods. For example, a meth-
od for predicting the yield of grain and pasture vegetation over the territory of
Central Asia and Ka.zakhstan has been developed using aerial photometric information
on biomass.
The use of remote information on the state of a~ricultural crops and the soil over
large areas and advances in the field of mathematical modeling should 'uecome the
basic direction in the improvement of inethods for agrometeorological predictions, an
increase in their accuracy in the new five-year plan.
During the past five years work has actively proceeded on the improvement of inethods
for the remote determination of the state of the soil, stat.e and productivity of ag-
ricultural crops over extensive areas using aviation and space vehicles.
_ The following methods have been developed: for remote determination of the projec-
tive coverage of the soil by winter crops during the autumn and spring; for deter-
mination of damage to potato crops by phytophthora; for determination of areas of
121
FOR OFFrC[AL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR nFFiC1AL LfSE ONLY
beating duwn of crops; far cietermining the sparsenesa and damage of cotton plants.
A method was created for pr edicting the yield of grain crops on irrigated and un-
irrigated lands in Central Asia and Kazakhstan, based on the dependence of the grain
yield on the mean oblast quantities of above-ground biomass of fields of grain crops
determined by the aeropho tometric method. A method was developed for computing the
yield of desert pasture veg etation on the basis of data from aerophotometric inves-
tigations and satellite photographs.
A series of aircraft instrument outfits was created and delivered for the implemen-
tation of a gamma survey over large areas for the purpose of determining the water
- reserves in the snow and in the cultivated soil horizon in several agricultural re-
gions of the country. Methods have been developed for ascertaining soil moisture
content, snow depth and wa ter reserves in the snow cover in agricultural fields
using aircraft gamma-spec t ral surveys.
In general, in the system of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology investigations
on the development of remo te methods for the collection of infarmation on the state
and yield of agricultural crops and pasture vegetation over great areas are at the
level of the best attainments in the country and abroad. During the Eleventh Five-
Year Plan this work direc t ion will be furtheY~ developed and will be tied in with
the development of airborrie operational measurement systems for evaluating the
state of the soil, sown c rops and their yield with a corresponding system for the
registry and automated pro cessing of the collected in�ormation.
During recent years there has been some broadening of work on the creation of instru-
ments for surface agromet eorological observations by the network of stations.and
posts. For example, the "FON-M" and "Zhavoronok" biometric f ield photometers have
been developed for routine instrumental measurement of the quantity of above-ground
plant biomass, the densit y in fields and the degree of weediness. The first will be
used in any types of soil s and the second in regions with light-colored soils. In
1980 field tests of these photometers were initiated and are intended for extensive
' use by agrometeorologists and agronomists.
Testing of a universal co nductometric instrument KIR-101 is.being completed. This
indicator is intended for the routine detection of plants which have perished due
to low temperatures and f or determining the wilting point.
In accordance with the te chnical specifications of the All-Union Scientific Research
Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, in the new five year plan development will
be completed for an instrument measuring complex for vehicle agrometeorological in-
vestigations. In essence, this will make it possible to create agrometeorological
field la~~r~t~ric~ ~e* Lg en rhP rl2aasj5 of cross-countr_y vehicles of the UAZ-452
- and GAZ-66 types, designed in two variants: for the implementation of standard ag-
rometeorological program s for field observations by hydrometeorological observator-
- ies, weather bureaus and agrometeorological stations (first variant); for carrying
out a complex of special agrometeorological and biological observations within the
- framework of scientific r esearch work (second variant).
Work is continuing on th e creation of a portable soil drill; development is proceed-
ing on an ecological gasornetric chamber, etc.
122
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
During the new five year plan work will be completed on the revising of the RUKOVOD-
STVO PO OPREDELENIYU AGROGIDROLOGICHESKIKH SVOYSTV POCHVY NA GIDROMETSTANTSIYAKH
(Manual for Determining the Agrohydrological Properties of Soils at Hydrometeoro-
logical Stations), the NASTAVLENIYA GIDROMETEOROLOGICHESKIM STANTSIYAM I POSTAMi
VYP 11 (4-e IZDANIYE) (Iastructions for Hydrometeorological Stations and Posts, No
11 (4th Edition)), and other aids, and these will be published.
A major cycle of studies has been carried out by the scientific research institutes
of the State Committee on Hydrometeorology for the formulation of recommendations

, on the agrometeorological validation of different technological procedures for the
cultivation of agricultural crops for a number of regions in the country. Among
these are recommendations on allowance for agrometeorological conditions in the dis-
' tribution of nitrogen fertilizers on grain crops, recommendations on the undersowing
and resowing of damaged and poorly developed fields of winter wheat, on the times ~f
sowing of spring grain crops in Western Siberia and cotton in Central. Asia. Methods
have been developed for predicting the infliience of agrometeorological conditions
on the development of a predator of the potato, the Colorado potato beetle, and dis-
eases of this crop in the nonchernozem zone, methods for predicting the mass propa-
gation of a number of predators of agricultural crops in the territory of Trans-
caucasia, and a method for evaluating the effectiveness of snow retention over the
territory of Kazakhstan. Methodological recomn:endations have been fo:'mulated on an
evaluatian of the economic effectiveness of the use of agrometeorological informa-
tion in agriculture. The potential economic effectiveness of use of recommendations
on allowance for hydrometeorological conditions in agricultural work is estimated
at 33.5 million rubles per year.
~ The "Principal Directions in Economic and Social Development of the USSR for 1981-
1985 and for the Period Ending in 1990" call for a substantial increase in the
supplying of mineral fertilizers and highly effective plant protection agents to
' agriculture. The task is set of increasing the role of the agrochemical service in
agriculture and its responsibility for the effective use of mineral fertilizers,
lime and chemical plant protection agents. Accordingly, the importance and neces-
sity for developing agrometeorological recommendations making it possible to take
into account the existing and anticipated weather conditions with the application of
large amounts of fertilizers and crop chemical protection agents, directed to an in-
crease in the effectiveness of use of these agents, is increasing sti11 further.
_ In the field of agroclimatic investigations during the Tenth Five Year Plan much work
was done for evaluating the agroclimatic conditions for crop cultivation and valida-
tion of the distribution of agricultural crops in the zone of the Baykal-Amur Rail-
- road and in Transcaucasia, rice in the Ukraine. A series of reference aids was pre-
pared. The map AGROKLIMATICHESKIYE RESURSY NECHERNOZII~INOY ZONY YeT SSSR (Agroclimatic
Resources c,` the Nonchernozem Zone of the Furopean Territory of the USSR) was pub-
lished, as well as the reference manuals SREDNIYE MNOGOLETNIYE I VEROYATNOSTNYYE
KHARAKTERISTIKI ZAPASOV VLAGI V POCHVE POD OZIr1YMI I RANNIMI YAROtJYMI KUL'TURAMI
(Mean Long-Term and Stochastic Characteristics of Moisture Supplies in the Soil Un-
der Winter and Early Spring Crops) for the European USSR and Eastern Siberia. Sim-
ilar reference manuals have been prepared for publication for the territory of the
Uzbek, Kirgiz and Tajik SSRs, for the territory of Western Siberia, and also the
ATLAS VLAGOZAPASOV POD OZIMYMI I YAROVYMI ZERNOVYMI KUL'TIJRAMI NA YeTS (Atlas of
123
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFIC~AL USE ONLY
Moisture Supplies Under Winter and Spring Grain Crops_in the European USSR). Work
on the preparation of reference manuals on the agroclimatic regime of the terri-
tory of the country, intended for a wide range of users, will be continued.
In order to improve the system for supplying users with agroclimatic information,
and also for coordinating all investigations in this field, carried out by differ-
ent ministries and departments, during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan specialists will
formulate the methodological principles for creating and implementing the USSR
Agroclimatic Inventory.
The "Principal Directions in the Economic and Social Development of the USSR for
1981-1985 and for the Period Ending in 1990" provide for the continuation of work
on improving the distribution of agricultural production by zones and regions of
the country, an increase in the level of its specialization and concentration. In
the light of this task, investigations directed to an evaluation of the influence
- of anomalous agroclimatic conditions on the yield of the principal agricul[ural
crops for the purpose of optimizing the distribution of agricultural production
, are assuming particular importance and seriousness.
During the Tenth Five-Year Plan a new method was developed for the multisided re-
gionalization of agricultural crops, optimum in the sense of a reduction of losses
of the gross yield due to the unfavorable weather conditions. It is necessary to
solve the problem, more difficult in scientific and organizational respects, of im-
plementing the developed approach and introducing the practical results of computa- ;
tions into the p.lanning of agricultural production.
Woz�k has been completed on the development of a first variant of a system for the
processing of routine agrometeorological information. On the basis of a YeS elec-
tronic computer, the system, together with the modernized KN-21M(2) code, is under-
going the stage of a.nventor's tests at the Belurussian Territorial Hydrometeorolog-
ical Center. Also lying ahead is more intensive work on the introduction of the
system for the processing of routine informa~ion into practical use and on mathe-
matical support for the creation of a bank~of agrometeorological data. Work along
these lines is an important aspect of the new system for the hydrometeorological
support of the country's agriculture. The availability of a modern information base
would make possible a substantial increase in the i;ffectiveness of scientific re-
search work in the agrometeorological field.
- During the Tenth Five-Year Plan a textbook by Yu. I. Chirkov, entitled AGROMETEORO-
LOGIYA (Agrometeorol~gy) was published for the students at agricultural colleges in
tlie c~untry, as w~l~ as ~~tu~~ si3 b~ e, M. g1:~,2i~g~n Prtirlpcl AGROMETEOROLOGIYA I
AGROKLIMATOLOGIYA (Agrometeorology and Agroclimatology), to a certain degree fill-
ing a gap which has persisted for many years in the agrometeorological literature.
Nevertheless, during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan it is necessary to form creative
teams of authors for preparing modern textbooks and aids for ~tudents at hydrometeor-
ological colleges and technical schools.
The Scientific Council on the "Agrometeorology" Problem, organized by an order of
the State Committee on Hydrometeorology in late 1980, should bring together the
scientific community of our country, focus efforts on the development of key
124
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
F'(1R OFFI('IA~, l1SE nN1.Y
problemy ln n~romet~�c~rulu~;y an~l fnvur nn lmprovement in the courdinaGl~~~i ul' ~1.1
agrometeorological investigations c~3rried out in the system of rhe State Committee
on Hydrometeorology and in other ministries and departments.
During the past five years Soviet agrometeorologists have assumed an active part in
agrometeorological research tog~ther with specialists of the socialist countries
within the framework of multilateral and bilate?-al cooperation. For example, on the
basis of such investigations in 1979 the third, f inal part of the monograph AGRO-
KLIMATICHESKOYE RAYONIROVANIYE PYATI OSNOVNYKH SEL'SKOKHOZYAYSTVENNYKH KUL'TUR NA
TERRITORII SOTSIALISTICHESKIKH STRAN YEVROPY (Agroclimatic Regionalization of the
Five Principal Agricultural Crops in the Territory of the Socialist Countries of
Europe) was published.
- During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan scientific cooperation with the agrometeorolog-
ists of the countries of the Socialist Economic Bloc will be further developed.
Major work must still be done by Soviet agrometeorologists within the framework of
activity of the Commission on Agricultural Meteorology of the WMO and other inter-
national organizations. In particular, the following work must be done: determine
the influence of climatic variability on agriculture, clarify the role of forests
in the global balance of C02, the water and energy balances, determine the agro-
meteorological aspects of land use in arid and semiarid territories subjected to
the greatest extent to the processes of advance of the desert, clarify the meteor-
ological aspects of the implementation of agricultural work in the tropical and
- subtropicaZ regions. Work will be continued on the developnent of "weather-yield"
models and study of the problems involved in the influence of weather on the state
of livestock.
125
FOR OFFICIAG USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551(510.53:590.21)(98)
EFFECT OF SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE TEMPERATi7RE REGIME IN THE POLAR ATMOSPHERE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 (manuscript received
22 Sep 80) pp 105-112
[Article by G. A. Kokin, doctor of physical and mathematical sciences, L. A. Ryaza-
nova, candidate of geograph~allAerolocical Observatoryland Lnstitute ofPApplied Geo-
- mathematical sciences, Cent g
physics]
[Text) Abstract: On the basis of an analysis of experi- ,I
mental data from rocket and radiosonde sounding
on Kheys Island it was possible to ascertain the
characteristics of change in meteorological para-
meters and the state of different layers of the
atmosphere in dependence on the solar activity
level in the 11-year cycle.
The purpose of this study was a determination of the relationship between the
change in solar activieyatmosnhereeduringawinterein the polarpregion~ regime of
different layers of th P
Duri.ng the polar winter the direct influence of solar radiation in the electromag-
netic wavelength range is minimum and therefore the effects associated with dis-
turbance by the sun should be manifested most clearly. At the same time, the ef-
fect of corpuscular streams in this region is maximum and their contribution to
energy shouldthe chanreyin theitemperaturenregimeeduring thenperiodtofatheull~year
will examine g
solar activity cycle in the polar region.
~ As characLeristics ~f s~~ar acti~:i*_~ used the minimum temperature of the exo~
sphere T~XO, which reflects the joint effecindex)adA validationtof theeselectedG.'
czn (Flp,7) and geomagnetic disturbance (Kp
characteristic and the computation method were given in'('3~].
The mean monthly and mean seasonal Texo values during the period from 1966 through
1976 were compared with the values of the mean monthly and seasonal temperatures
over Kheys Island, obtaine~~oS hericatemperature~atnaltitudescgreatersthane80skm8,�
As a characteristic of the p
126
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY
we used data from experimental measurements by the different methods employed in
[2, 6, 7, 9, lOJ.
Table 1
Mean Winter Values Texo and Temperatures Over Kheys Island in Years of Solar
Activity Maximum and Minimum
H km Mean winter temperature, K Temperature differences
during during during mentioned periods,
1968- 1974- K
1971 1976
Exosphere 1233 996 237
165 662 1025 -363
70 217 202 15
45 233 263 -30
5 235 233 2
Thexe were two maxima in the mean winter Texo values (December-January-February)
during the period 1966 through 1976: the first, main maximum,~observed in 1968,
which was 1330.K, and a second, observed in 1970, and equal to 1230 I~. Minimum
solar activity was observed in 1976, with Texo - 990 K.. Thus, during the investigat-
ed period the maximum amplitude of the mean winter Texo values was more than 300 K.
Zn order to compare Texo With the temperature values in different layers of the at-
mosphere all the data were grouped into two main periods: solar activity maximum
~ (1968-1971) and minimum (1974-1976).
! As an example, the table gives the mean winter T~o values and mean winter tempera-
, ture values at altitudes 5 km (troposphere), 45 km (stratosphere), 70 lan (meso- �
i sprere) and 165 1~ (thermosphere).
After examining the table the conclusion can be drawn that in the years of the solar
, activi.ty maximum and minimum the temperature regime of the atmosphere in the polar
region is different. The temperature values in the years of the solar activity max-
~ imum are higher in the mesosphere and troposphere and lower in the thermosphere and
stratosphere than during the period of low solar activity. Thus, the reaction to
the change in solar activity during the 11-year cycle in different layers of the
atmosphere is different. We note that the indicated differences in temperature are
significant in all layers other than the troposphere.
Figure 1, which shows the vertical temperature profiles over Kheys Island tor the
periods of the maximum (1) and minimum (2) of solar activity, clearly reveals the
altitudinal boundaries of the above-mentioned temperature changes.
We should note that sufficiently good agreement between temperature isothermy in
- the thermosphere, measured by rocket methods, and temperature of the exosphere,
computed on the basis of data on the Flp,7 and ICp indices, is itidicated.
127
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400404070048-2
FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY
~A During the period of the solar activity max-
imum the temperature in the isothermy region
~ was T= 1200 K, and T , as indicated above,
j was 1233 K; during theXperiod of the minimum
2sp~ ~ T= 1025 K, Texo � 992 K. The mentioned suf-
~ ~ ficiently good agreement of these data is
evidence of the reliability of the results
! of rocket measurements.
~
20Q I
I The antiphase character ~f the temperature
~ changes in different~layers of the atmo-
i
I sphere has been noted before; it has been
~ ~ observed most clearly during periods of
>so i powerful stratospheric-mesospheric warmings.
~ During these periods there are substantial
restructurings of the thermal and circulation
regimes. It is possible that restructurings of
70~~- structure and circulation also occur with
~ 4% changes in the solar activity level.
L
- ~ The character of the relationship between solar .
So~ activity and the temperature regime of differ-
~ ent layers of the atmosphere can also be ~udg-
I ~ ed from regression curves constructed in lin-
C ~ ear and quadratic approximations and shown in
i Fig. 2. The f igures near the dots indicate
~ 1 A ~ i ~
~ 0 20a .~DO 600 900 T K the year for which the mean temperature val-
ue was obtained.
Fig..l. Temperature change over
_ ICheys Island during the years of The greatest scatter of points relative to the
the solar activity naximum (1) approximating curve is observed at the l~vel
and minimum (2). 5 1~, which indicates, evidently, a predomin-
ating influence of the variability of tropospheric processes and the effect of the
underlying surface.
At the 70-lan level the maxim~ deviation of the point relating to 1969 is evidently
attributable to the strong mesospheric warming observed during this period.
Now we will examine some possible reasons for such a significant change in the tem-
i perature reQime in dependence on variation in the level of solar activit~ ciuring
the 11-year cycle, especially the temperature change in the atmosphere during a
period of rise in this level.
In our opinion, the redistribution of the thermal and energy regimes is attribut-
able to the totality of a whole series of factors, among which we can mention long
planetary waves~ turbulent thermal diffusivity and vertical currents. In a one-
dimensional approximation the thermal diffusivity equation can be written [1] in
the form
WcvP( az r~ - a (K=~p~~ a: r~l-Q, (1)
128
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFICIAI. USb: ONI.Y
where W is the vertical component of wind velocity, KZ is the vertical component of
the coefficient of turbulent mixing, cP is specific heat capacity at a constant
pressure, P is air density, Q is the specific heat absorbed in a unit time due
to radiation factors, dT/dz is the vertical temperature gradient, r= g/cP is the
superadiabatic temperature gradient, g is the acceleration of free falling.
_ T �7P
Io w
- ' 276 �~o Tb � T
~7~ g9. 2f0 � 73
1J4 ~ / ~j~ ~ 760 ~1~ _f` �67
~6B , 69 js.73
~Z ~ 700 �~s �67 � 69 1~ ' 69
' � 7? .
. p ~~~M
- ~0 7T ~ 7
_ >000 1f00 1700 q'
'~~s ~~6 exo
240 - ~ 6~ f000~� 67
� 70 ~f
220 B~0 \ �69
~73 71 �71 �6B 6B ~
100 ~ . �7~ 67 600 '
1000 1100 1200 >,i00 f000 1f00 1?00 T, Texo
Fig. 2. Regression relationships between minimum exospheric temperature Texo and
temperature at the levels 5, 20, 45, 70 and 165 k~.
The solution of equation (1) with the boundary condition: with z= 0
' dT/dz = (dT/dz)p,
has the form
Z W
~ e~ Kz ds
dT (l(sCpp)nf( dT 1 l
, ds r-F K~ ~P p L\ d= lo~' r I + (2)
:
e` KZ dz z_ r l~ dz ' .
+ ~ Qe~~ d E,
KZ ~p r ~
where (KZCpP is related to z= 0.
It follows from (2) that the vertical temperature gradient is formed due to such
parameters as KZ, W,jo and Q. We wi11 examine each parameter separately.
Atmospheric turbulence is governed for the most part by atmospheric stability rel-
ative to external factors. A stability characteristic is the value of the Richard-
son number Ri. A modification of this number, expressed through the horizontal tem-
perature gradient, was obtained in [3].
129
FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
- NRM~
701
HKM I
~ a
p al I~~'��, b) ~
60 '
SO ~ z;~~ SD f:~ 2 Z~~�;f
40
4B I JD
,~o I IO r
Jp V m/sec
~ p SO '0 ,SO -SO 0 Y~
2B0 500 f000 >f00 R~
Fig. 3. Change in Ri for period of maximum Fig. 4. Change in zonal (a) and mer-
(1) and minimum (2) solar activity. idional (b) wind velocities over Kheys
Island for levels of high (1) and low
(2) solar activity.
The Ri values were computed for levels of increased and reduced activity using
rocket sounding data. The results of the computations are given in Fig. 3. A
study of this figure indicates that in almost the entire stratomesosphere the per-
iod of increased solar activity is characterized by an unstable state of the atmo-
sphere. Accordingly, during this period the prerequisites exist for the develop-
ment of more intense turbulence. It can be anticipated that in this case there will
be a broader spectrum of turbulent fluctuations and accordingly, KZ at the time of
the solar activity maximum will be greater than during the time of the minimum.
Thus, during the ~eriod o~ the solar activity maximum as a result of increased
turbulent mixing there should be a decrease in the vertical temperature gradient.
Vertical currents W should also lead to a temperature redistribution. The W value
can be evaluated through the horizontal components of wind velocity. Tt follows
from the continuity equation that
W_ _ i arpu~ , acov)
~ a~ ax T dr ] dz' (3)
where u and v are tne zonai arici uieiiaivcial cvripvi~er~t~ a~ w~nu ~~~~ci~y. Ir. a g~~-
strophic approximation we obtain
W=- ~ ~ tg d~ vdz, (4)
ap
0
where 8 is the complementary angle to local latitude, a is the earth's radius.
_ Approximate integration in the Q z layer gives
130
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400404070048-2
FOR OFFIC(AL USE ONLY
- W= a ln ps 2~,
(5)
where H is the altitude of the homogeneous atmosphere, pp and pZ are the pressures
at the lower and upper levels of the Q z layer, v is the mean velocity of the mer--
idional wind component in the L~ z layer. Evaluations show that with ~ z~ 105 cm
and a~ 6�108 cm W~ 2�10-4 v.
On the basis of experimental data we computed the mean v values for the levels of
high and low solar activity. The results of the computations are given in Fig. 4.
- Using these data it is possible to evaluate the change in W with transition from
the maximum to the minimum of solar activitya Estimates show that during the period
of the solar activity maximum in the layer from 10 to 20 1~ W has a very low 2�
10'2 cm/sec) value and is directed downward. Below 20 l~, due to descending cur-
rents, it is evident that there will be a temperature increase. Above 20 km and
to an altitude of 60 km because of ascending currents there should be a temperature
decrease because the v value during the period of the solar activity maximum is
less than during the period of the minimum. It is evident that this process to a
considerable degree should be neutralized by turbulent thermal diffusivity. In ac-
tuality, the dimensionless value WH/KZ characterizes the relative contribution of
these processes. Wmin= 0.6 cm/sec and W~X=' 0.4 cm/sec at an altitude 40~45 lan. KZ,
according to [1], is of the order of magnitucle 105 cm2/sec, H= 6�105 cm. According-
ly, WH/KZ , 0.4�6�105/105 ~ 2 during the period of.the maximum and WH/KZ~ 3 during
_ the solar activity minimum period. If it is taken into account that with transition
from the solar activity minimum to the solar activity maximum KZ should increase,
- then evidently in the considered range of altitudes at the solar activity maximum
the WH/KZ value will even be somewhat less than during the period of the solar ac-
tivity minimum.
Thus, both these mechanisms should lead to a change in the vertical temperature
profile, as is actually observed. In addition to a change in stratification there
is also a change in the level of the mesopause. Its altitude increases with the
solar activity minimum and is situated at 120-125 lan, whereas with the minimum it
lies at about 80 km. The fact that in the altitude range 90-220 l~ the thermospher-
ic temperature during the period of the solar activity maximum is lower can evi-
dently be evidence of an increasing role of turbulent transfer. This same factor
should increase the altitude of the mesopause and the level of the turbopause.
A decisive role should also be played by descending movements which possibly caus-
ed a temperature increase in the mesosphere during the solar activity maximum.
Using data from rocket sounding we calculated the vertical density profiles for
incr~aae.. s~ ar act~_~-
- K'neys 151'dItCI sLai:ioii. it ~7a5 iuiiiid ~riat uii~irig u~,erivu -vf a
ity the density in the stratomesosphere increases in comparison with the solar ac-
tivity minimum. This circumstance should lead to a decrease in dT/dz during a per-
iod of increased solar activity because density is present in the denominators of
the second and third terms of expression (2).
Now we will proceed to an examination of the influence of Q on formation of the
vertical temperature profile. It is evident that during the period of the polar
tiight over Kheys Island there is virtually no solar radiation leading to heating
~31
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
c~f the atmosphere. It is possible that radiation acattered by the thermosphere en-
ters into the stratosphere and mesosphere and is absorbed there, but its contribu-
tion is negligible. Accordingly, the radiation regime of the stratomesosphere is
- characterized by radiation cooling. It is possible that heating of the atmosphere
occurs as a result of injections of corpuscular radiations through the polar cusps,
but in our opinion any estimate of the contribution of this facto~ to the thermal
regime of the stratomesosphere would be highly approximate.
~7' _ 'dT � ~ (Q - Qe)max- (4a - Qe)min 1 -eW es 1
( 1 a ~ KZ ~ (6)
~ ~max \ a= /rr,~n W~pP +
where Qa and Qe are the absorbed and emitted radiation energy.
It follows from the experiunental data that the following condition is satisfied in
the. stratomesosphere .
; dT / dT
' ~2 ~mac \ ~lZ 'rt:in C /7~
Condition (7) is satisfied in a case when
/ W \
I ~II
= 3~ N= e] ~~~n - Qn mas - (Qn - Qi~~min~ \1 P /lZ / < n.
~
The value ~ _ 0,
- since W/KZ pz~ 0.4 with Q zw 105, KZ~ 105 and W~ 0.4.
Accordingly, the following condition is satisfied
~Qa - 4e~max < ~Qa - Qe)min'
If it is assumed that at the solar activity minimum Qa< Qe, accordingly the same
condition must also be satisf ied during the period of the solar activity maximum.
Emission must increase to a greater extent than absorption. However, if during the
period of the solar activity minimum Qa > Qe, it is obvious that during the solar
activity maximum the difference Qa - Qe should decrease in comparison with the
period of the minimum. This can occur only in a case when the emission increases
more in this period than absorption.
Thus, in both the considered cases during a period of increased solar activity
there should be an increase in radiation cooling.
The principal factor responsible for this process, according to [4], is C02 emis-
sion in the band 15f1m. However, C02 is a quite conservative component and one
should scarcely expect its.changes in different periods of solar activity. A sec-
ond, less active factor responsible for the radiation balance is atmospheric
- ozone, emitting in the 9.6f,~,m band. However, its contribution to the radiative
cooling process is less significant than the C02 contribution.
= It was demonstrated in [4] that up to the 60-km level radiative cooling by 03
emission does not exceed 1�C/day. Even a significant (by several. times) increase
in the 03 concentration during a period of increassd solar activity, which to all
132
[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLi~
intents and purposes is an improbable event, scarcely will lead to the anticipat-
- ed effect. Still another component responsible for radiative cooling is water
vapor. It was also demonstrated in [4] that in the case of use of a"moist" model
of the stratomesosphere the effect caused by this component is -8 K per day at ~n
altitude of SO km. Thus, water vapor plays a substantial role in the radiation
balance of the stratomesosphere.
At the present time the literature contains no data on the water vapor concentra-
tion in the polar region, but it was demonstrated in [11] that the water vapor con-
centration in the stratomesosphere increases from the tropical to the middle lati-
- tudes. There is an annual variation of humidity with a maximum in the winter and
a minimum in the summer. 1f it is postulated that such a pattern can be extrapolat--
ed into the high latitudes, it is then possible to explain the increase in radia-
tive cooling dur~ng winter over Kheys Island. It can also be assumed that the
fact of an increase ir? radiative conling during the period of the solar activity
maximum is associatecl with the increasing role of solar protons in the physico-
chemical processes transpiring in the stratosphere and mesosphere and possibly re-
sponsible for an increase in the concentration of H20 molecules.
It can therefore be concluded that in the polar region all the principal meteoro-
logical parameters (temperature, wind, density, pressure), altitude of character-
istic levels (mesopause a.nd others), characteristics of the thermodynamic state
of the stratosphere and mesosphere (turbulence, vertical currents, instability),
as well as radiation factors and physicochemical processes change or should change
with transition from the maximum to the minimum of solar activity in the 11-year
_ cycle.
Some assumptions concerning the role of individual fac~ors presented here are quite
speculative and unquestionably should be backed up by rigorous mathematical com-
putations. However, it is impossible to carry out such computations at the gresent
- time due to the lack of a number of required physical characteristics.
BIBLIOGRAPI~Y
l. Zhadin, Ye. A. and Krivolutskiy, A. A., "Coeff icient of Turbulent Diffusion
in the Meso sphere and Lower Thermosphere," TRUDY TsAO (Transactions of the
Central Aerological Observatory), No 115, 1973.
2. Ivanova, I. N., Kokin, G. A. and Chizhov, A. r., "Temperature and Density in
rhe Mesosphere and Thermosphere in the Central Arctic," METEOROLOGIY~ I
GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 5, 1968.
3. Ivanovskiy, A. I. and Ryazanova, L. A., "Experience in Using the Instability
Test for Diagnosis and Prediction of Processes of Seasonal and Intraseasonal
Restructuring in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOG-
IYA, No 7, I974.
4. Kivganov, A. F., "Radiation Sources and Heat Losses in the Stratosphere and
and Lower Mesosptiere," TRUDY TsAO, No 96, 1970.
5. Kokin, G. A., et al., "Correlation Between Processes in the Stratosphere and
Solar Activ ity," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA, No 7, 1977.
133
FOR OFFICIA i. ~?.SF. ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400400070008-2
~ .
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
_ 6. Nuvikov, A. 5. and Tulinov, G. F., "Rocket Experiments for Investigating the
Upper Atmosphere in the Central Arctic," GEOMAGNETIZM I AERONOMIYA (Geomag-
netism and Aeronomy), Vol XV, No 2, 1975.
7. Novikov, A. S., Tulinov, G. F. and Pokhunkov, A. A., "Manometric Investiga-
tions in the Polar Troposphere," TRUDY IPG (Transactions of the Institute of
Applied Geophysics), No 24, 1975.
8. "REZUL'TATY RAKETNOGO ZONDIROVANIYA ATMOSFERY," 0. KHEYSA, 1966-1967 ("Re-
sults of Rocket Sounding of the Atmosphere," Kheys Island, 1966-1967), Mos-
cow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1977.
9. Tulinov, G. F. and Chanin, M. L., "Experimental Investigation of the Tempera-
ture Regime of the Upper Atmosphere in the Central Arctic," TRUDY IPG (Trans-
actions of the Institute of Applied Geophysics), No 23, 1975.
10. Andreeva, L. A. and Chanin, M. L. (et al.), "Measurements of Wind, D3ffusion
Coe�fj.cients and Temperature From Artif icial Luminous Clouds on Heise Island
Unde~ Quiet and Disturbed Geomagnetic Situations," Preprint to the XVIII
Meeting, COSPAR, May-June 1975, Varna, Bulgaria.
11. Vedynski, A. V. and Jushkov, V. A., "Direct Measurements on Water Vapour
Concentratior. in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere in Mid-Latitudes of the
USSR and in the Equatorial Zone," Preprint to the XXIIst COSPAR, India, 1979.
134
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
UDC 551.506.24
- PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FGGE PROGRAM
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 6, Jun 81 (manuscript received
16 Sep 30) pp 113-121
[Article by K. Ya. Kondrat'yev, corresponding member, USSR Academy of Sciences, Ma.in
Geophysical ObservatoryJ
[Text] Abstract: This is a review of the preliminary
results of implementation of the FGGE program.
The emphasis is on an examination of the space
observatien system~ including both the collec-
, tion of information by means of satellites and
the use of satellites for the localizing, col-
lection and dissemination of data from differ-
ent observation platforms (drifting sea buoys,
balloons, aircraft). The volume of observations
carried out during the FGGE period is character-
ized and the results of processing of the mass
of data are briefly examined. The author dis-
cusses some results of analysis af FGGE data
and numerical modeling, the purpose of which was
an evaluation of the informational contribution
of different components of the observation sys-
tem to a weather forecast for a time up to f ive
days.
Within the framework of the scientific program for the next, 23d plenary session of
COSPAR, held during the period 2-14 June 1980 in Budapest, a symposium was organiz-
ed to discuss the results of functioning of observation systems and the preliminary
results of implementation of the First GZobal Experiment (FGGE) of GARP. The sympo-
sium, attended by a representative group of specialists from different countries,
made possible a sufficiently clear evaluation of the degree of implementation of the
FGGE observational program and discussion of resi~lts. Naturally, the specific charac-
ter of COSPAR as an international committee on space research determined the priority
- of the "space aspect" of the FGGE program. It is well known, however, that it was
specifically the use of space observation vehicles, together with means for the
collection and dissemination of i.nformation from different platforms, which made a
decisive contribution to the attainment of the principal FGGE goal obtaining a
global mass ef ineteorological and oceanographic data for one year.
135
FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Table 1
FGGE Observational Systems
Observation system Entire SOP Periods
FGGE of in-
period tensive
observa-
- t ions
Principal observation system
WW[d surface observation system WWW network +
Operational satellite observa-
tion system 5 geostationary
satellites +
4 satellites in
polar orbits +
~ecial observation system
Drifting buoys 368 buoys +
Constant-altitude balloons 313 balloons +
Shipboard wind observations in
- tropics 40 ships (SOP-1)
43 ships (SOP-2) +
_ Probes dropped from aircraft 9 aircraft
(339 takeoffs) +
Experimental satellite "Nimbus-7" +
Transmission of data from air-
- craft via satellites ("PDSS") 17 aircraft +
Coordinated system of aircraft .
observations ("SSSN") 80 aircraft ~ +
Special aerological soundings on
islands 12 stations +
The principal scientific goals of the FGGE program are: 1) achievement of a better
understanding of the laws of atmospheric dynamics for increasing the reliability
of weather forecasts; 2) evaluation of the limits of weather predictability; 3) val-
idation of an optimum observation system meeting the needs of numerical weather
forecasting; 4) study (on the basis of data for a year observation period) of the
_ physical mechanisms causing climatic changes at time scales from several weeks to
9
136
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR O~NICIAL US~ UNLY
several years and also the development and checking (on the basis of observational
data) of models of clin~3te.
Naturally, the primary tas~c in sum:narizing FGGE results is an evaluation of the de-
gree of implementation of th~ n?anned observation program. However, it is still
more important to analyze the informational contribution of new observation sys-
tems supplementing the usual observational facilities of the World Weather Watch
(WWW). This, in particular, relates to space observation systems, as well as
their use for localizing autamatic platforms, collection of the corresponding in-
formation and its transmission to surface centers. All these matters have been
discussed in detail in reports at the symposium on FGGE resul~s. A number of re-
ports contained general information, overlapping to a considerable degree, on the
functioning of the FGGE observation system (D. Rasmussen, WMO; H. Goetz, Hungary;
W. McGovern, United States; D. Corby, Switzerland),
Table 1, presented by D. Rasmussen, characterizes the principal and special (in-
tended for special observation periods SOP) space observation systems used in
combination with drifting buoys, constant-level balloons, shipboard wind observa-
tions, probes dropped from aircraft, aircraft observations, etc. Most of the data
from ordinary observations from the. enumerated platforms was collected and (or)
transmitted by means of satellites.
The data mass included the results of observations of 3,104 surface and sea meteor-
ological stations and 1,375 aerological stations. Table 2 gives a generalized sum-
mary of the results of observations by means of satellites in polar orbits. The
principal contribution was from "TIROS-N" data, this continuously functioning dur-
ing the whole of 1979. A factor of great importance is the presence aboard third-
generation American meteorological satellites ("TIROS-N" and "NOAA-6") of the "Ar-
gos system instrument complex, ensuring localization of drifting buoys and con-
stant-level balloons, and also the collection of data from them. The fun~tioning
of the "Argos" system, developed by French specialists, was reproachless. This sys-
tem, described by M. Taillad (France) and intended for use at least until 1986 in-
cludes the following principal components: 1) observation platforms on which are
mounted measuring devices and radio transmitters; 2) two simultaneously function-
ing satellites; 3) a data processing and dissemination center located in Toulouse
~ (DPDC). Up to 32 different sensors with the volume of data transmitted by each of
them up to 256 bits can be mounted on the OP. All OPs function at one and the same
frequency (401, 650 MHz) and transmit information in series lasting approximately
1 sec each 40-200 sec. If the OP is situated in the zone of reception from a satel-
lite, the information from it will be received, processed on board and stored in
an on-board memory unit until it is transmitted to the DPDC. Successful~reception
of information is ensured at least in a radius of about 2,600 km relative to the
subsatellite point (with a minimum angle of elevation of 5�).
~ Table 3 illustrates the possibility of .interrogation of OPs from satellites. The
basic. principle for the zeception of data is the implementation of random contacts
- between a satellite and the OP. In order to separate the OP transmissions in time
' use is made of their async:hronization in different periods of repetiti.on of trans-
missions. The separation of transmissions by frec~uency is accomplished by the use
of a different Doppler shift of the carrier frequency for transmitters on different
137
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
F'OR OFFIC'IAL [JSF. ONLY
Table 2
System of FGGE Polar Satellites and Receipt of Level IIb Data From Them
_ In this table: * denotes that data output is not determined specifically and no
level IIb data have yet been received; denotes that the receipt of data for
the last few months of 1979 is likely; denotes that data will be received for
supplementing level IIb data.
0
Name of satellite Purpose of ~ ~ ,b ~ p
satellite ~ o ~ � v
~ � a o ~ ~�n ~ ~
ro
00 ,b a p u v o
- ,-~i u ~ ~ ~ a w ~ o
00 � v o cn. o;; ~
G ~ e u a~ a~i � a ro ~
~ G w u oa~i ,�a~'
~ ~ w 0 8+~ H u a~ b cd
N m ~ ,-I ~ O m cd G ~
O ~ O r-I ~ 9 tJ ~ U W w rl cb O
~
~ ~ N ~ ctl ~ TJ W cd G! c0 ~ N ~ rl
E'i t~ p Gl ~ ~ 3-~ 1-~ 1.t 00 u 'L7
c~ cv u~ r+ ~ o~ ca a o o ~o
H a ca u o~a 3 N H+~ A~ a~ 6
NOAA-5 Second-genera-
tion meteoro-
logical satel-
lite 29 Jul + + +
1976
Seasat Oceanographic Fail-
satellite 2 Jun ed
1978
TIP.OS-N Third-genera-
tion meteoro-
Zogical satel- .
lite 13 Oct + + + + +
1978
NIMBUS-7 Experimental
meteorological
satellite 24 Oct + + + +
1978 * * *
Meteor Experimental 25 Jan + + +
meteorological 1979 *
satellite
Remote
NOAA-6 Second third- sound-
generation ing in-
meteorological + + + + + strumen-
satellite 27 Jun tation
1979 failed
138
FOR OFFICIAd. USE ONLY.
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
OP. If the transmissions are separated by frequency, up to four transmissions can
be received simultaneously. With a duration of the repeated transmissions of not
less than 10 minutes during one satellite revolution there is interrogation of
each OP situated within the limits of the reception zone.
Table 3
Possibilities of Interrogation of Measurement Platforms From Satellites
Latitude, degrees Number of interrogations
minimum average maximum
0 6 7 8
+15 8 8 9
+30 8 9 12
+45 10 11 12
+55 16 16 18
f65 21 22 23
+75 28 28 28
+90 28 28 28
A determination of the OP coordinates is made only by means of ineasurement of the
- Doppler shift o.f the carrier frequency of the received signal. With known satel-
lite orbital parameters a successful determination of OP coordinates is possible in
those cases when for the particular orbit there are five measurements of the Doppler
shift with a different geometry of signal reception (this requires, for example,
separation of the f irst and last signals with a time interval not less than 420
sec). If the position of the OP is determined using data for two revolutions, it
is important that the measurements on the preceding revolution be made within the
limits of the interval 30 minutes - 3 hours relative to data for the next revolu-
tion. Among 100 OP which the satellite "sees" in the cou~se of one revolution, 60
may be localized with complete reliability (in 24 cases the geometric~l test is
not satisfied). A high frequency stability of the OP transmitter is of very great
importance. With a stability of about 10-9 it is possible to determine position
with an accuracy to 150 m(level Ib) and 500 m(level IIIb). Since the "Argos" system
is free of systematic errors, the averaging of coordinates of f ixed platforms over
a period of several days increases the accuracy of localization to not less than 100
m.
_ The "Argos" system was designed t~ function with 99% assurance of its operations.
Such a high reliability is guaranteed by a duplication of virtually all the import-
ant elements of the system. All the telemetric in.formation from American meteorolog-
ical satellites received by ground stations is sent to a data processing center l.ocat-
ed in Suitland (USA) and from there the data of the "Argos" system are transmitted to
Toulouse. The data received by the DPDC are processed and ~lisseminated at a real time
scale. Upon receiving re~uests from users the DPDC carries out a specialized process-
ing of data. The theoretically possible time interval between the moments of recep-
tion of data of the OP and the transmission of data by the DPDC at the request of
users varies from 1 hour 20 minutes to 3 hours, but in actuality delays for technical
reasons have led to a considerable lengthening of this interval. As an average for
139
FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOIt OFF'ICIAL USE ONLY
six months 57, 85 and 97% of the entire volume of information was received not lat-
er than 3, 6 and 10 hours respectively. A telex is used most ~requently for the
transmission of data to users. Table 4 characterizes the proposed use of the "Argos"
system for different purposes in 1980-1981. Estimates of the prospects for expartd-
ing use of the "Argos" system are illustrated in Table 5.
Table 4
Use of "Argos" System for Collecting and Disseminating Different Information
Functions Number of objects
1980 1981
Data col.lection only
� Fixed stations 54 74
Localization of OP and data
collection
Buoys 454 472
Balloons 5 0
Icebergs 60 5
Ships 112 160
- Sea animals 39 49
Total 724 760
One of the principal FGGE achievements was the simultaneous functioning of five geo-
stationary meteorological satellites (GMS): three American geostationary ~nvironmen-
tal satellites (GEOS); "Meteosat," launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) and
a Japanese GMS (Table 6). The basic information from the CMS was data on the fields
of the wind vector at two levels, reconstructed on the basis of movement of lower-
and upper-level clouds. ,
In the United States two organizations have reconstructed the wind fields: the En-
vironmential Protection Agency and the Center for Engineering and Space Research at
- the University of Wisconsin. GEOS data over the Indian Ocean were Pb ~theeFrenchhe
Wisconsin center (separately with low and high spatial resolution), y
Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory and the West German Aerospace Institute, The Japanese
Meteorological Agency and the ESA were responsible for the processing of data from
the Japanese GMS and the "Meteosat" respectively. The JMA also was responsible for
reconstruction of the temperature fields of the ocean surface. A total of 5,100
wind velocity and wind direction values were determined on the average for each
day. For 1,060 "geostationary days'" (with involvement of five GMS) during the per-
iod of 212 days from 1 December 1978 through 30 June Z979 at least two series of
data on the wind f ield were received for 90% of the days.
Three complications arose during the time of FGGE implementation:
1) partial failure of GEOS-2 in late December 1978, which made it necessary to re-
place this satellite f irst with the satellite GMS-1 and then GMS-2 in order to en-
sure continuity of observations at the point where GEOS-East was situated;
140
- FOR QFFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
-
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
2) beeinnin~; with 24 Ptny 1979 ttier~~ was intermittent (from time ta time) failur~~
of the GEOS-1 IR channel (Indian Ocean), which limited the restoration of data to
one series a day; however, in the course of SOP-2, in the absence of data for the
IR channel, the wind fields were reconstructed at 0600 and 1200 hours GMT;
~ 3) failure of "Meteosat" on 25 November 1979, which was not of great importance be-
cause it occurred late in the FGGE period.
The results of an analysis of the mass of FGGE data, discussed in a report by D.
Zillman (Australia), revealed the major role which was played by drifting sea buoys
localized and interrogated by satellites in obtaining meteorological and oceano-
graphic data for the southern hemisphere. Seven countries set out 364 buoys (the
FGGE program called for 300 buoys) which were placed in the oceans of the southern
hemisphere from the ships of 12 countries (these were primarily commercial vessels
making voyages to Antarctica); 19 buoys were dropped from aircraft. The instrument-
_ ation or~ these buoys ensuzed measurements of atmospheric pressure and water temper-
ature. This information was especially important for the tie-in of satell~~e
perature profiles. If it is assumed that the data for each buoy are representative
_ within the limits of a circle with a radius of 500 1~, the maximum coverage with
observational data in May 1979 for the zone 20-65�S attained 80%, which provided
a denser network of pressure data than in the northern hemisphere. Statistic4 on
- the malfunctioning of buoys revealed that during the 240 days only 2% of the buoys
failed.
The tracking of buoy trajectories made it possible to obtain a wealth of surface
information on currents in the southern hemisphere. The reports of D. Zillman (Aus-
tralia), D. Luteharms and H. Valentine (South African Republic) gave interesting
examples of analysis of the dynamics of currents and revealed the presence of a
ma~or anticyclonic eddy in the Tasman Sea, rings and other mesoscale characteristics
- of ocean circulation. Three typical circulation components were registered to the
south of Africa: a wind-induced coastal upwelling in the Benguela system, the main
westerly Alguhas boundary current (a study was made of intensification of the up-
welling front to the west of Capetown under the influence of this current) and the
zonal flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. All these components are highly
variable, which means that classical hydrophysical observation systems are inade-
- quate and the joint analysis of IR satellite images, hydrographic data and observ-
ations from drifting buoys is promising.
The use of data on temperature of the ocean surface made it possible to carry out
synoptic mapping of temperature of the ocean surface in the high latitudes of the
southern hemisphere with a reliability and detail not possible earlier. The con-
struction of maps of the mean monthly values and anomalies of temperature of the
ocean surface on the basis of buoy and ship data affords new possibilities for
studying the ocean and atmosphere. Buoy data make an important contribution to in-
formation on the high latitudes. However, discrepancies in buoy and ship data on
temperature of the ocean surface can be noted.
Buoy observations were important for operational synoptic analysis and weather fore-
casting in the southern hemisphere during the FGGE period. Data on atmospheric
pressure are usually adequate for a far more reliable clarification of macroscale
circulation over the ocean in the middle and high latitudes than was possible earl-
ier. There is a small but statistically significant increase in the reliability of
141
FOR 4FFICIAL USE ONLY
APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2

APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070008-2
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
u~
r-~1 ~ ao rn rn ~ ~ O O
,p t~ i-I ~7 N O ~O M O
H H 'r1 N O
y
~
~
r.{ cn N ~ N