JPRS ID: 10125 JAPAN REPORT

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CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6
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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400070040-6 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/10125 1 S November 1981 Ja an Report p _ (FOUO 65/81) ~g~$ FAREIGN gROADCAST I NFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400440070040-6 NOTE 3PP.S pu~li.c2ti~ns contain information primarilg from foreign - newspapers, period.icals aad books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. _ Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] - or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was p*ocessed. Where no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. 'Jnfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original bLt have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originace wirii the source. Times within items are as ~iven by source. The content~ of th.is publication in no way represent the poli- . cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNE~SHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIfZE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTiD~F4R OFFICIAL USE ONI,Y. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 EOIt OEFICIAL U~E ONLY JPRS L/10125 18 November 1981 JAPAN REPORT (FOUO 65/81~ CONTENTS POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL Despite In3ictmcnt, Tanaka Strengthena Influence (Teuro Tsuteumi; THE JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 3 Nov 81)........ 1 ' Komoto's Strategy for Rising to Top Analyzed (Michisada Hirose; ASAHI EVENING NEWS, 22 Oct 81) 3 Chief Cabinet Secretary Miyazawa's Position Evaluted (K~en Ando; MAINIQiI DAILY NEWS, 23 Oct 81) S JSP Faces More Affluent Society, Publishes Revised Manifesto - (Editorial; THE DAILY YOMEURI, 24 Oct 81) 8 N akasone Troubled Over Establishment of 'Policy Group' (Raisuke Honda; THF DAILY YDMIURI, 23 Oct 81) 10 ~ Arafat's Visit Caused Big Headaches for Kimura (Takehiko Takahasi; MAINICHI DAILY NEWS, 28 Oct 81)............ 11 Popular Support for Pri~ne Mtnister Reported ~ (Minoru Shimizu; THE JAPA~I1 TIMES, 29 Oct 81) 13 ECONOMIC Postal Savings Policy Dispute Settled (Various sources, 19, 30 Sep 81) 15 Roundtable Discussion of Issues Settlemerit Within IDF Editorial Comment SCIENCE AND TECHNOL~Y U.S.-J~pan Military Technology Cooperation Examined - (SHUKAN ORU TOSHI, 4 Sep 81) 24 - a - [III - ASIA - 111 FOUO] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE UNLY MITI To Launch 7-Year Pro~ect To Develop Intelligent RQbot (Various sources, various dates) 31 Uses in Nuclear Field Help in Improving Productivity Leadi_ng Robot Technology 10-Year Project for FYfth-Generc.tion Compi~ter Announ~.ed (NIKKEI SANGYO SHII~IJN , 9 Sep 81) 35 Associative, Learning Functions Coope ration With Fore i gn Countries Drive for High Te chnology at Mitsubishi ~lectric Discussed (SHiJKAN ORU TOSHI, Aug 81) 38 VISI Technology CMOS Gate Array Developed by Toshiba (NTKICAN KOGYO SHIMSUN, 8 Nov 81) 44 Future of Plant Export Industry Diacussed (Fumihiko Matsuda; NIH ON KOGYO SHIMBUN, variaus dates)......... 46 - b - , APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL DESPTTE IDTDICTMENT, TANAKA STRENGTHENS INFLUENCE Tokyo THE JAPAN ECONOMIC JOU1tNAL in English 3 Nov 81 p 8 ["Political Scene" column by Teuro Tsutsumi: "Tanaka Builds Up Power Des pite Trial ~Text~ It is a wonder why former Ptime Minist~r Why are so many LDP Dietmen cvshing Kakuei Tanaka, a defendant indicted for al� into the Tanaka camp? The anwer may be - legedly receiving ~f500 million in bribes in found partly in a survey conducted by a ~ the L~ockheed payoff trial, can still malntain weekly magazine wtach inteviewed them. or even strerigthen his influence in Japanese Firstly, the survey said that for most of politics. Tanaka's men, the greatest source ~f his In the trial, lawyers for defenclant Tanaka ma~netism is l~is aggressiveness, which poured out one piece of "evidence" after ao- brought him to the highest post of premier other to substantiate the clalm that he di~ wi:hout the help of education and inherited not receive the m~ney, but "evidence" has wealth in a country where social success is been seriously questioned by the pcosecufors' rn~re or less resen~ed for people with a col- rebuttals. SE;eculation is circulating these leae degree. Secondiy, others said Tanaka is days that there is a strong passibility that "a man of compassion and very humane and T~naka will be p:oven guilty in the ruling of warm-hearted." 'I~vo prospective candidates the Tokyo Pistrict Court late next year. to the premiership within the Tanaka faction, On the other hand, in the expected resh�Sf- former Finance Minister hoboru Takeshita fle of the Suzulci Cabinet and the LDP leader- and former Defense Ag~ncy Director-Gen- ship at the en~ of November, LDP Executive eral Ganri Yamashita, are also said to be Council Chairman Susumu Nikaido, "men of compassion" equal to Tanaka, their Tanaka's closest associate, is likely to be ap~ mentor. All this substantiates the reputation pc>inted to the key post of LDP secretary- that "the Tanaka factior. is extremely good general. Thus, when congronted with this in taking care of its members" and proves grim prospect of a"guilty" ruling and the that there is "a stroag boad, similiar to the expected Nikaido appointment, everybody one in a famlly, between the faction cnem- just wonders why Tanaka is as powerful as bers and Tanaka as the ceater." ever and his influence has never lessened. For example, take the case of a junior Diet- At present, out of LDP's 421 Dietmen, man, who receives a petition from his c~~ more than 100 belong to the Tac~?ka facdoa sdtuency for building a bridge or two and Those who did not belong to any faction be- paving road. T'he novice Dietman may be in fore have rushed to the Tanaka camp in the seriuus trouble because he does not know the past 12 months. Tanaka himself boasts that knack of penetrating ihe bureaucracy. But it "more than 150" Dietr~en belong to his fac- will be marvellous i~ se~ior members of his tion if "pro-Tanaka men are included." This faction render a helping hand to talk to the is an astounding figure when compared with Construction Ministry and meet the expe~ta- its factional strength of 70-80 men four years tions of his corrstituency. Here in this aspect ago when Tanaka was arrested on charges of ~ mutual trelp among faction members, the _ taking bribes. 1 - FOR OEFICIAL USE Oh'LY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 FOR OFFICIAL IJSE ONLY Tanaka taction is the strangest among all stitute a bas~s tor bnoery - a~ 1egaI conten- factians of the LDP. And it is no doubt th~t tion which could be interpreted in many behind this mutual help lies the fact that ways. This is why ashate observers say that there are many "pro-Tanaka afficials" with- tl~re will be "no big repercussion to the in the Ministries of Finance, Internaiional Tanaka camp even if Tanaka is proven guilty Trad~& Industry, and Poets and Telecom- in the Cust trial." munications, being built up ovei the years by Thus, the key issue to the focthcoaning Tanaka himself, w~ho are very iastrumeatal party leadership reshuffle is whether Prime in meeting requesta from factioa members. Minister Zenko Suzuki will appoint Nilcaido Even if this is the case, one juat wonders iE a~ j,pp S~~y.g~eral as expected amid - the situation might aot tiu~n against Taaaka i~reasing streagth of the Tanaka faction :f he is fo~md guilty in the Tokyo Diatr(ct withiu the LDP, and the ras Court trial. But in Ja n the "three instance P P~~s~.for a s tem" is ado ted anand the trial could ~ling in the Lockheed trial. The a~ YS P 80 ~ pointment will be a matter of keen concern to to the Tokyo High Court and the Supreme judge whether Prime Minister Suzuki will Court after the ruling is made i~n the Tokyo accepi the power of the Tanaka faction or Diatrict Caut. Nobody Imows what will ha~ keep a disteuce from Tanaka in the [uture. pen to the outcome of the trial ii the Tanaka camp has decided to bring up an issne that (Teruo Tsutaumi is a Nihon Keizai deputy ~500 million was not a brlbe, but a po political editor.) litica! donation ~and tKerefoie'doed' not 'coi~ ' COP'YRIGHT: 1981 The Nihon Keizai Shimbuasha, Inc. CSO: 4120/46 2 , ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400070040-6 rOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL KOMOTO'S STRATEGY FOR RISING TO TOP ANALYZED Tokyo ASAHI EVEPIING NEWS in English 22 Oct 81 p 2 ~"Politics and Politicians" column by Michisada Hirose: "Komoto's Strategy for Rising to Top Analyzed"] ~Text~ The strategy of Toyhio Ko- June last year and the alli- moto, director-general of the ance of the three "main-line Economic Planning Agency, conservative" factions-head- for risirig to the top when ed by Suzuki and former Prime Ministet Zenko Suzuki Prime Ministers Kakuei T3- step; down remains vague. naka a,d Takeo Fukuda- This is partly due to the na- .-which was formed aftor - ture of the man: Kom~to Ohira s demise destroyed the - takes a cautious approach to basic assumptior~ of Ka everything. But more impor- moto's strategy. tant reason is that the situa- With the support of the tion within the ruling Liberal- group led by Yasuhiro Naka- Democratic Party is unfavura- sone, director-general of the ble for him, and he cannot Administrative Managemept work out an. effective strategy. Agency, the three "main-line" How dces he propose to act factions have virtually abol- in connection with the reshuf- ished the sy~tem of presiden- fle of the Cabiaet and the tial primary elections. (They LDP executive liueup, which made a new ruie under which is to be made after the cur- primary elections will not be rent Diet session eads? held when three or fewer peo- ' In the spring .of last year, pie run for the presidency. Ia Y.omoto and his aidea had a reality, it is inconceivable for clear strategy for sweep- there to be four or more can- ing into power and were car- didates.) rying it out on a nationwide Primaries are supposed to scale. T6e strategy called for be followed by an election in recruiting pro-Komoto oeople which only the LDP members into the ruling parry. Wit6 of both Houses of the Diet their votes, Komoto was to can vote, but it would be ex- win by a large margin in LDP tremely difficult for Komoto presidential primary elections, to win such an election since in which tlie party rank aad his faction is the smallest of file are eligible to vote. t6e five majbr LDP factions. At that time, t6e LDP The Komoto faction's 43 Diet membership increa~ed to 2.5 members cempare with the million, of whom 0.7 to 0.8 Tanaka faction's 104, the miliidule, a~~1:~::~ific,ic~~~n-~trucCure infartuntion bn:~e trn~dnl~~ :~iu1 r~~i ~~ti. 'Cl~r structurarch machine using VHS format, which w~as heretofore considered difficult to achieve. Video disks, which are considered to follow the steps of VTR, are being developed now. In the field of television, the sales of giant-screen color TV "Auroravision" have be~n steady to the owners of ball parks and advertisement towers. In addition, in tl~e field of automotive parts, emphasis is placed on the electron- a.t-j.cation of the automobile, including a tri~ computer and an electronic fuel in- jection device. In the field of robots, production of arc-welding robots, which is expected to grow 30-40 percent in the future, began in August at the rate of 41 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 FOR OFFICI.AI. 1!SN: ONI.Y 30 units a month. It is hoped that 20 perceat of the market share can he secured by 1985. The sequencer, cohich is handled by the machine business department, is also grow- ing at the brisk pace of 30-40 per.cent a year, thanks to the movement toward ra- tionalization and labor-saving. The K-series which was put on the market in 1980 'las been movin~; smoothly. Rc~moval of humans from production lines is being pro- moted by these labor-savin~; and rationalizing machines. At its Himeji plant, eight production 1i_nes have been completely taken over. by machines. Mitsubisl~i's tE.'C~1I1:1_C31 potential will bl.ossom during the process of consolidating its strongly el.ectronic-oriented system. The strength of Mitsubishi's technical power can be appreciated from the value placed on it by U.S. Westinghouse, which has maintained a tectinical tie with it. The coalition between Mitsubishi and _ Westingho~ise has lasted cnore than half a century, since 1923, and the tie is very strong. In the beginning, the contract was one of technical assistance. In 1966, it became a contract of technical exchange, and the exchange has continued since then on the basis of equal partnership. The contract agr.eement revised this year has expanded the range of cooperation into operational management, or overall cooperation. This speaks clearly of the increased esteem Ldestinghouse has for Mitsubishi. Over the past several years, the top management personnel of Westinghouse have visited Japan one after another, _ showing their interest in overall operation and management, including labor manage- ment and production management. On the technical side, technical exports by Mitsu- - bishi are increasing in number, and in some departments the situation has been cam- pletely turned around. Neverttieless, there are stili many problems to be overcome before Mitsubishi can join the ranks of real international enterprises. Aside from the products, the most urgent requirement is the improvement of financial affairs. Being far behind IIitactii and Toshiba financiall.y., Mitsubishi must also positively develop a finan- cial affairs stra~egy. In Sept~~mber this year, $100 million in Eurodollar con- vertible bonds wi1.1 be issued, and domestically, a chance for increasing capita? from piiblic subscripti.on may also arise. As Mitsubistii Heavy Industry Sees It Mitsubishi Electric, whicl~ was launched from the electric plant of Nagasaki Ship- yard, remains a"subsidiary company" of Mitsubishi Heavy Industry. The tie is strocig because of the blood relation, but on the other hand, mutual repulsion re- semblitig hatred of a close relative is also strongly felt. l~or example, the manufacture of a power generating station is heing carried out cooperatively, wi~h the Heavy Indus~ry responsible for the boiler and the turbine, while the Electric is responsible for the generator; the Heavy Industry is the main contractor and ttie Electric is the subcontractor. From the viewpoint of the tectini.cal. camp of the Heavy Industry, the difficulties encAUntered in connecting . the t~irt~ine and the generator and Che high cost of the generator are always a source of dissarisfaction. 42 i'OR OFFICIAL t)SE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 FUR OFFICIAL USN: C1N1.~' ()n tlie other hand, the Electric as a subcontractor complains of "hidding low in order to secure an export item and putting tfie blame on us." It is an old story by now, but the rivalry between these two companies surfaced around the Mitsubishi Nuclear Power Industry, which was positioned as +tfie nucleus for the development and production of a nuclear power plant. To the Heavy Industry, which is eager to push for construction of a practical production system, the Electric, which emphasized research and development, was always a pain in the neck. The strained relationship between the two companies is said to have lasted until the Heavy Industry shouldered the responsibility for the cumulative losses of the Nuclear Power Industry and the industry was reorganized into a unified company under the leadership of the Heavy Industry. These two companies also collided head-on in matters related to missiles, which comprise the frontline of the weapons department. More recently, they fought over the position of main contractor for the licensed production of the A-M9L which is carried on board the F-15, and the Heavy Industry was the final victor. The Electric used to be in charge of missiles of this series, so the recent coup is considered by the Heavy Industry as reestablishing itself as the rightful sys- tem organizer. COPYRIGIiT: Shukan Oru Toshi 1981 9113 CSO: 4105/259 43 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 FOR GFFiC1Al. USE ONL1' SCIENCE AND ~~CHNOLOGY VLSI TECHNOLOGY CMOS GATE ARRAY DEVELOPED BY TOSHIBA ~rokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 8 Nov $1 p 14 [Text] Toshiba Corporation (president, Shoichi Saha) announced on the lOth that it had developed the technology for the world's fastest gate array (semi.custom LSI) using CMOS construction. This technology, along witk? the company's other technology, makes possible 6,00~ gate number, 2 micron des:tgn line width, and 1.5 nanosecond propagation delay time, which represents the world's highest level in high degree of integration and high speed. The company plans to improve the reliability of this technology and to devel.op mass production technology so that it can market the product starting in 1982. Regarding gate arrays, Toshiba will be the third to enter the market, following Fujitsu and Oki Electric, while Hitachi is planning to enter the market soon. Thus, there has been a sudden burst of activity in the gate array market. In the past, the special logic circuits used in computers, ME equipment, measuring equipment and communications equipment were TTL or ECL type, consisting of a com- bination of a number of high-speed bipolar IC's but recently miniaturization, light- ness in weight, and low power consumption have beco~ne greatly desired properties in such equipment, and there has been a demand for special LSI which can conform to these needs. On the other hand, special LSI are expensive to develop, and the pro- duction involves many problems, one of which is sma11 volume production with asso- ciated high un~.t cost. Attention has been directed to gate array as the solution to this problem, and this is a product which can be pr~duced in a fairly short time in fairly large-scale mass - production and at low cost. Gate array includes, aside from CMOS, the TTL which is based on bipolar IC technology. Toshiba has an abundant technological record where CMOS is concerned. It focused attention on the development of CMOS characterized by small power consumption and high degree of in'cegration, using its own CMOS technology and super LSI technology to develop a CMOS gate array with a high-speed operation rivaling that of the TTL. '11~e prodticts which Toshiba developed and test produced are five types of high-speed VLSI using 2-3 micron finely finished and two-metal layer distribution line technology _ with gate numbers between 880 and 6,000. This company already has produced high pressure resistant LSI with gate number 400 for intracompany use, and this present development has filled out this product group. 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400070040-6 FOR OFFICIAL "USE ONLY The high speed gate array was realized thxough 3-micron very fine finish technology and two-r,?etal layer distribution lines, to make ~assible 2.5 nanosecond prQpagation delay time per internal gate wiCh the same level operating speed as the advanced low power Schottky TTL. - The super high speed gate array incorporates 2-micron very fine finish technology ~nd aluminum two-layer distribution lines, to enable a propagation delay time of 1.5 nanoseconds, the same level as the high sp~eed Schottky TTL. COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1981 2267 CSO: 8129/45 45 FOR OFF[C(AL i1SE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004400070040-6 FOR OFFIC'IAI. USE ONLY SCIENCE AND 'TECHNOLOGY FUTURE OF PLANT EXPORT INDUSTRY DISCUSSED - Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in ;Japanese 6, 7, 8, 10 Jul 81 [Article by reporter Fumihiko Matsuda] [6 Jul 81 p 7~ [TextJ Japan's plant export industry is about to face a turning point. Plant ex- ports, which broke the $10 billion mark, reaching $12.9 billion in FY-79, showed a recession in FY-80, tumbl3ng down to the 1968 level of $8.8 billion. Plant ex- ports were dubbed "exports without friction" and it was hoped they would be the most promising export commodities of the 80's, but they were curbed in the wake of the Iran-Iraq war and by suspension of construction of the large plants bound for China. In addition, international political and social changes such as the eco- nomic sanctions against the SovieC Union affected these exports. Meanwhile, Ja- pan's plant industry, in rhe midst of the severe plant export conditions, has started to reverse its gray picture led by the three major engineering corpora- tions. Changes have resulted due to advancements into new fields through develop- ment of new technologies around the axes of the reviewing of economic strategy, reinforcemenr of the economic camp, change of generations, energy conservation and energy substitution. Now, let us look into the future trend of plant exports and the destination of this industry in pursuit of a new direction in the midst - of the transition period. Inheritance of Human Resources "We lost our foremost attraction, Akiyoshi Tamaki, but I am encouraged to inherit the human res~urces raised on the command of the former president," said President Masakazu Tamaki, who became the new president of Chiyoda Chemical Engineering ~ Construction, the top firm of the plant industry, after the sudden death of the former president, at a press interview on the 2d of this month, exactly 1 month after he took over the office of president. - The former president, the late Akiyoshi Tamaki, was an excellent manager who broke away from Mitsubishi Oil, e~`ablished Chiyoda Chemical Engineering & Construction soon after the war, and raised it into a top world engineering firm. He was also the commonly acknawledged top leader and a pioneer in Japan's plant engineering industry. The shock of the loss of this gigantic star of the industry was felt 46 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400070040-6 Fou oFFic~,ai. usF: o~ri.v keenly, but at the same time, it may be considered to be an incident that symbol- izes the plant industry at a turning point. The death of the former president (also chairman) brought a change of generations to Cl~iyoda Chemical Engineering & Construction, but signs of change have been vis- ible for tt~e last f.ew years. It was in June 1979 that the company adopted a col- lec tive operation system under executive council. "Since the president ran a one- man show, it is questionable that a collective operation system was always at work" (President Masakazu Tamalci). However, the rails were already laid, and the chan~,e of ~;enerations, including those in affiliated companies, will be further speeded up under the new president. Cha 11~nKe by Dividing Responsibilities These ptienomena are commonly seen in the three plant engineering companies. For example, in Japan Gasoline, President Yoshio Suzuki has moved up to become chair- man. The bilateral structure with Chairman Suzuki and President Haruo Shinoda started in June last year. "A two-headed structure with two top leaders to strengthen nanagement (Chairman Suzuki) is viewed by some in the industry as "tt~e cloister government of Chairman Suzuki," but it is a fact that the rights of man agement were divided. Especially in view of the fact that Chairman Suzuki's key posts as a doyen of the industry are expected to increase--he was recently ass igned to the office of director of the Engineering Promotion Association suc- ceedinb the late Akiyoshi Tamaki and also to serve as chairman of the "81 Chemical Plant Show" to be held at Harumi this autumn--it appears that the lineup will be: Chairman Suzuki for activities related to the plant engineering industry and Presi- den t Shinoda for activities within the company. Toyo Engineering, the youngest of the three companies specializing in plant engineering, celebrated the 20th ann:.versary of its establistiment in May this year. Although the company is still behind ttie rwo ~eadrrs, Ghiyoda and Japan Gasoline, in sales and in construction ord ers received, Toyo Engineering is planning to challenge once again: "We have corisolidated our foundation to leap from TCE that manufactured fertilizers to the wori~l's top comprehensive engineering firm" (Presidenr Masayoshi Naito). In man- agement, a system to divide the responsibilities among three vice presidents, Fujimoto, Cho and Sakurai, has been incorporated, and new strategies are being launched une after anor.her to consolidate its position as one of the "big three" in the background of the new "listed" status and the lOth anniversary. Mitsubist~i Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, the two companies which pl.ay an important role as comprehensive hardware oriented makers in the plant in- dus~rv other than thc three specialized companies, also concurrently celebrated th e~ncs~ption of a new president and realized the change of generations at the end of .1une this year. in ti~~ case of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, it is thinking of brealci.ng away from its role as a conventional hardware maker to a comprehensive plant engineering business including software, with the Chemical Plant Engineer- - ing Center (MCEC) serving as an axis. The company is delaying the policy change partially as a result of the dire~t damage received by the cancellation of proj- E~cr~ in connection with t.I1P_ Iran-Iraq war and the suspension of plant construc- tion in China. _ , .47 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400470040-6 FOK OFFICIAL USE ONLY Reevaluati.un of Domesti.c MarkeC Kawasaki Heavy industries is a similar case. Kawasaki, which was promoting work. to construct a ceMent plan[ in Iraq, has now been forced to hold it up for a while, and its plant business balance has been severely damaged. Zn reaction, criticisms have been heard within the company: "Our simplistic atti- - tude o� loolcing for overseas markets because of the difficulty in securing domes- tic orders was a Factor which contributed to the problem." It is said that the ' company is now focusing on reevaluating the order securing system. This situation is not exclusive to Kawasaki HEavy Industries. The opinion that "overseas cnarkets are risky and domestic market reevaluation is necessary is about - to become mainstream thinking, although risk preventive measures are improvised based upon the increase in risk in the overseas country. For instance, both Chi- - yoda and Japan Gasoline, which used to claim an overseas construction order ratio - of over 80 percent, revealed a decline to 60 percent in FY-80. Conversely, domes- tic constructions increased. With confidence restored by these results, it is a natural consequence that each company has begun to put more energy into securing domestic work orders. It is not that we think lightly of overseas opportunities, but the r~~tio of overseas and domestic orders should ideally be half and half for the stability of the business operation" is the perception commonly shared by the leaders of. the industry. Compared to the attitude of the plant industry prevail- ing in the past, which worshiped only the overseas markets, the new posture is a 180-degree turn. Thanks to tt?e change of generations, the operational transition of each maker i~; progressing steadily. [ 7 Tul 81 E~ 7] [TextJ Revitalized Activi+~ies cf Consortium The recently presented "FY-81 Commerce White Paper" emphatically calls for organiz- ing aci '�internati~nal consor.r.ii~m (,international business partnership) as a means to expand plant ex{~orts: "Due to the occurrence of situations where international - armed conflicte ancl the change iu internal policies threaten to uproot plant con- struction, there ~mer.~es tendency for firms of one nation to hesitate to accept orders for larg~ plant from other natl.ons. In this perspective, the necessity L~r an internati.onal consortium is increasing so that the liability for risks can be diffused, merits of pu~~lic aid from each nation can be utilized, fund procure- ment ability and technologicaJ_ ability can be mutually furnished and perfected, and cost reducLions can be realized by procuring part of the plant supplies from a ttiird power." without the necessity to be pointed out in the Commerce White _ Pr.~per, many ex~mples can be seen pertaini.ng to achievements and bids submitted by companies whicl~ f~rmed a cansortium with European and American reputable plant engineerin~; firms in responsc to :Cnternational tenders for large projects overseas. Nevertheless, international consortiums previously were organized more for reasons of stra~egies Eor securing orders and insuring work volumes, whereas the recent consortiums entered into by Japanese firms have different purposes: "The interna- tional_ consortLum is indispensable from the aspects of facing country risks and of finances" (Chiyoda Chemical Eng3.neering & Construction, Toyo Engineering). 'I'hat adds up to tlie arr.ival of a genuine international consortium era. 4s rOR OFEICiAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000404070040-6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Duel of t}ic Largest Consortiums in History In fact, some even say that almost all of the large projects scheduled to be bid upon this year and next year will be subjected to competition for orders to be received umong the international consortiums themselves. For instance, business negotiations relating to the Nigeria LNG plant (annual pro- duction 20 million tons), which draws attention as the largest LNG plant project of this century calling for a total cost of 1 trillion yen (including LNG vessels), _ will scon enter the stage of a scramble for securing orders among the three indus- trial consortiums which passed the preliminary examination: 1) Chiyoda Chemical Bngineering & CcnStruction-Rumas [phonetic] (America), 2) Japan Gasoline-Kellogg (America)-Daelim Industrial (Korea), and 3) SNAM (Italy)-Foster Wheeler (same). The final bout of the international consortiums, the greatest. of its kind in his- tory, is temporarily held up because the bidding has been postponed to next spring, but the consortium era has arrived, not only in Japan but in the world. Also, for business talks rel.ating to the Malaysian large fertilizer plant of the ASEAN No 2 project scheduled to be offered for international bidding, international consor- tiums were formed in advance to be ready for the submission of bids, which is rather rare for a fertilizer plant. In accordance with this system, the partici- pation of five consortiums featuring Japanese firms is expected after the prelim- inary examinations: 1) Toyo Engineering-Mitsui Toatsu Chemicals-Kellogg (America), 2) Mitsubishi Heavy Industry-C. Itoh-Sunamu [phonetic] (ILaly), 3) Kobe Steel- Nichime;: Friedrich Uhde (West Germany), 4) Hitachi Shipbuilding & Engineering- Humphly Glasgow (England), 5) Chiyoda Chemical Engineering & Construction- Mitsubishi Corporation. As the ASEAN project will be implemented by borrowing yen from Japan, Japanese firms by themselves could properly bid and win without any problem. However, even the bidding on this project is said to be attend:d by international consortiums. Also, in regard to the Indonesian LNG plant (total sum 150 billion yen), an order which was successfully obtained recently by a Mitsubishi group consortium--Chiyoda Chemical Engineering & Construction-Mitsubishi Heavy Industries-Mitsubis2?i Corp- oration--ended up, strange to say, as a case where the project was subcontracted - to a local subsidiary of Bechtel of America which has gained experience in build- - ing plants in Indonesia. A complex international consortium system beyond ca~ital affiliations is about to be forged. Internatio~lal Procurement of Machinery and Equipment Tlie intcrnational consortium system as described above has become common sense in the business world. On the other hand, it is ttie Japan Machinery Exporters' Asso- ciation (director, Ichiro Terano) thaC is active in advocating "International Exct~~ange for Plants" under the flag of "frictionless trade" paying heed *_o the international trade frictions endemic in automobile exports, from the standpoint of ~IltE~rnational industrial cooperation and procnotion by the private sector. ThiS includes the holding of regular conferences for exchange of technologies in re~ard to cooperation for "plant exports to Third World nations" with European I11L"1O11S such as West Germany, Italy, Belgium, France and the Netherla.nds, and mnderateiv advanced nations such as Brazil and Korea. "The European business 49 FOR OFF[C[AL CJSF. ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400070040-6 F'ON nFF1C'!.Al. l!S!? ONt,I' world and i~ations are ].ooking forward to cooperation with Japan in plant exports to Third LJorld nations . .T~i[)3I1 will also profit greatly from financial deals such as t}-ee conclusion af the joint insurance agreement" (executive office of the Japan Machinery Expurcer's Association). It is lioped that the service window exchange among groups of companies iaill advance to the level of exchange among the member firms. Meanwhile, the movement t~ "strengthen the international procurement of plant ma- chinery and equipment in uni.son with the iormation of international consortiums" (Fresi_dent Masayoshi Nai.to, Toyo Engineering) also attracts attention:. ~n the � overseas projects, employment of foreign labor has become a general practice, and following the patterns of human resources, material procurement is also multi- nationalized. With this trend in mind, the following point of view is expressed: "The recession in plani exports is only statistical. Statistics do not include cases of business contracted for cost plus fee and cases of overseas procurement. Plant exports are r~ot nece~sarily in a recession" (Executive Director Hiromi Goto, Chiyoda Ctiemical Engir~eerin~; & Construction). Conversely, the consortium system contains an aspecr. iri WtilCll Cl1e export of plant machinery can be anticipated even if Japan is defeatt:d in inlernational biddings. The order for the modernization pr.oject f:or two oil. refineries planned by Pertamina of Indonesia was given to two American conipanies, Bechtel and Floor [phonetic] over Japanese companies, but it is said that "one-tllird oF the plant machinexy and equipment will be procuren from Japan," and n~-~chiue malcers have alxeady received orders. 1~Ihile. the wave5 oi inter.national.ization reach the shore led by international con- sortiums, a"new intt_rn.aCionalizatiun era" has arrived when Japan's plant business i.s quesr_ionin~ whethPi� or not it can survive as a world plant maker a�ter it has deviated From the. road ot international competition and has selected international r_oogeration. [ 8 Jul ~il 8 ] [Text ] Relaxanl oL Intern~~tional ~rj.cLion In order for .Japan's plant industry to survive, in the unanimous opinion of the - le.aders of both specia:llzed and nonspecia].ized c~mpanies in this industry, techno- logical ability (inr_.liiding technological development and research and development) is the d~cisive and in~v~.tab:le factur in winning the competition, much more than the reinforcement of international competitive power. MITI authorities ranked plant exports as a"promisin~ export conunodity of the eighties based upon techno- logical capability," and expectG it to play the role as a"relaxant" to avoid trade fricCion bec