JPRS ID: 10186 WEST EUROPE REPORT

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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000440080044-5 FOR OFFICUI. USE ONLY JPRS L/ 10186 14 Decernber 1981 West Euro e Re ort p p (FOUO 65/813 FBIS FOR~EIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400080040-5 NOTE JPRS publications contain information.primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. ~ Materials from'foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources . are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. _ Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets , are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [TextJ - o* [Excerpt] in the first line nf each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. Where no processing indicator is gi~en, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendere3 phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the~ original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical note~ wirhin the body of an item originate with the source. Tim~s within ite~.s are as _ given by source. The contents of this ~,ublication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. - COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DI5SEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 JPRS L/10186 14 December 1981 WEST EUROPE REPORT (FOUO 65/81) - CONTENTS THEpTER FORCES FRANCE Gallois Interviewed, Voices Viewa on 'Zero Option' (Pierre Gallois Interview; LA STAMPA, 1 Dec 81) 1 Briefs Missile's Range Political 3 ITALY Briefs Reagan's Disarmament Proposal 4 F.CONOMIC FEDERAL REPiJBLIC OF GERMANY Metalworkers' U�ion Strategy To Combat Unemployment (Heiko Tornow; STERN, S Nov 81) 5 ITALY Svimez Report Cites North-South Economic Gap (Nando Mazzei; IL SOLE-24 ORF., 25 Oct 81) 7 POLITICAL FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMe~?NY Points of Disaension Setween xohl; Geiealer Noted � (Ludolf Herrmann; CAPITAL, Nov $1) 9 - a - [III - WE - 150 FOUO] FOEt OFFICIAL USE ONI.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FRANCE PS-Deputy, Government Relations; Economic, Foreign Policy (Lionel Jospin Interview; LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR, 17 Oct 81) 12 ITALY Alleged Socialist P~an To Split CGIL Union (IL MONDO, 9 Oct 81) 18 Drop in Union Memberahip, b~ Renzo Rosati Anti-Inflationary Pact, by Lorenzo Scheggi GENERAL FRANCE Ariane Launch Delay 24 'r - b - FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY THEATER FORCES FRANCE GALLOIS INTERVIEWED, VOICES VIEWS ON 'ZERO O1�TION' PM031519 Turin LA STAMPA in Italian 1 Dec 81 p 5 [Interview with General Pierre Gallois by Paolo Patruno: "Zero Option Leads Only ta U.S. Disengagement in Europe" in Paris; date rcot given] [Text] Paris--"In Geneva the t~mericans are negotiating with the objective of the 'zero option.' To pr.event the deployment of the Euromisailes, the Soviets are offering a reduction in their nuclear weapons and perhaps a partial �,aithdrawal of their SS-20's. But if the negotiations end with an agreement, ' Europe will have little reason to be pleased or to applaud. Because in any case it is taking a big gamble." General Pierre Gallois, internationally famous strategist, author of ~ dozen studies of military strategy and inter- national relations and one of the creators of the French strike force under De Gaulle, expressed in an interview granted to LA STAMPA all his reservations, as a specialist, about the Ceneva negotiations and above a11 about European policy. [QuestionJ Why is Europe in danger? [Answer] The problem is very simple: what specif ically does the U.S. zero. option offer mean? It means that the United States will relinquish deploy3ng its Pershing II and cruise missiles in NATO countries served by U.S. personnel. In other words, Reagan is backtracking from Carter's proposal, correcting the "imprudent" levity of his predecessor at the White House and in practice . facilitating a disengagement from the E,iropean theater, It is absolutely senseless and id9otic that European politicians immediately supported and applauded Reagan's zero nption proposal. [Question] But in exchange for the nondeployment of the Euromissiles the United States wants to secure a similar zero option from the Soviets. [Answer~ What, in fact, will the Americans be ab~e to ob tain, after many efforts? Perhaps ttiat the US~R will reduce its number of missiles targeted on Europe a littlP, perhaps by a few hundred? But it is certainly the older weapons that will be put into storage. What about the SS-20's? The Russians might, as a demonstration of good will, agree to halt their deployment, reduce their numbers or pul~ them back a few hundred kilometers. Even deployed in the Urals the 1 FOR OFFICtAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400480040-5 FON OMFI('IAL. USa: nNLY ' Soviet SS-20's c~uld still hit the majority of main nerve centers in central West Europe. So what will we have achieved? Eurepe would remain the ~TSSR's hostage, with th e additional drawback of the U.S. disengagement. _ [Question] Why have European politicians supported the U.S. zero option proposal: why did they not insist instead on the deployment of the Euromissiles? [Answer~ The European leaders, starting with Chancellor Schmidt, have displayed great ignorance of the problem of their countries' security. They are chasing public s~lpport and do nct want *_o be accused of bellicosity. But they would do better to explain the real situation to people. They have been wrong from the outset. They should have reached an agreeanent with the Americans to form a fleet of 20-30 submarines deployed in the various seas and canstantly on the move. Secrecy would have been safeguarded and the Euromissiles would have retained the advantage of mob3lity. [Question] So what is the choice now, Gener.al Gallois? [Answer] In my opinion the zero option is inconsistent and su3c3da1 for us Europeans, who would be its victims. By accepting it, the European leaders are making their countries' future dependent an Russian good will. f:luestion] In conclusion, is the choice between unconditional surrender and - disaster? [Answer] A disaster was a nightmare until 10 years ago. Now strategic changes and weapons miniaturization have made this terrifying hypothesis less realistic. There is still a possibility of a limited war, which could even be restricted to a mere disarming action to neutralize military ob3ectives without hitting the civilian populations. [Question] So what can we expect from Geneva? [Answer] As far a5 I am concerned, jt will be worse than the withdrawal of thP Thor and Jupiter missiles from Europe under Kennedy. COPYRIGHT: 1981 Editr. LA STAMPA S.p.A. CSO: 3104/53 , 2 FOR OFF[C.IAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY THEATER FORCES FRANCE BRIEFS MISSILE'S RANGE POLITICAL--The communique from the [President's office in the] Elysee on 14 November, announcing the choice of the Hades tactical nuclear missile for the years to come, included a figure underlined for the benefit of the Germans, namely, the missile's range of 250 kilometers. The exiating Pluton misaile system . has a range of only 100 kilometers. Stationed in France, it could hit only FRG territory and the West Germans are quite aware of it. The Hades missile, however, can reach the GDR from the Rhine. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French - 23 Nov S1 p 19] [COPYRIGHT; 1981 "VEleurs actuelles"] CSO: ~100/152 3 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR ON~rIC1AL USE ONLY THEATER FORCES ITALY BRIEFS REAGAN'S DISARMAMENT PROPOSAL--Rome--In an article in today's L'UNITA, [secretary of the PCI Foreign Policy Studies Center] Romano Ledda recognizes the major importance of the U.S. proposal, whose "philosophy reverses the previous one: whereas before, rearmament was the precondition for any future negotiations, now it is asserted that there is a desire to negotiate a compre- hensive reduction of al? weapons." Nevertheless, the PCI representative identifies "a fundamental contra3iction" in the U.S. President's speech. According to Ledda, Reagan is placing himself in "a negotiating position that is neither strong nor reas~nable" because it goes beyond even the Italian socialists' stance--among tt~e most radical--on the zero option. Indeed, it aims not only at the dismantling of missiles deployed since 1977, but also challenges the previous situation which, Ledda maintains, was "by consent" recognized as balanced. [Exc.erpt) [PM251551 Milan CORRIERE DELLA SERA in Italian 22 Nov �31 p 5] CSO: 3104/52 4 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 ECONOMIC FEDERAL REPUBLiC OF GERMANY METALWORKERS' UNION STRATEGY TO COMBAT UNEI~LOYMENT Hamburg STERN in German 5 Nov 81 p 242 [Article by Heiko Tornow: "'No Icing on the Cake'--Why the 1~fetalworkers' Union Plans to Forgo High Pay Raises"] [Text] Wolfgan Engelmann, deputy representative of the Metalworkers' Union in Hamburg, had just explained his union's strategy for the impending contract _ negotiations to the staff of the Kolben Schmidt firm in Hamburg--scanty percentage raises but in return pensions at 60. The reaction surprised him. "For that we'll strike, even on Christmas Eve!" To their union leader the metalworkers announced willingness to strike. "Pay pension" is the term that the Metalworkere' union seems to have used successfully not only in Hamburg to mobilize its membership in spite of dire economic progr.osis. In view of the alarmingly high unemployment--feared to reach 2 million in the next winter--the metalworkers are urged to forgo parts of their salary increase. In return Hans Janssen, in charge of pay programs for the world's largest single union, would like to wrest the following model from the industrialists of Gasamtmetall: Metalworkers will "go on pension" at 60 instead of the current 63 years. The industry is to pay them 90 percent of their salaries. The employers are also to pay social security contributions for them until the "paid pensioners" qualify for their state retirement. At the same time the jobs abandoned voluntarily by the older colleagues are to be filled by unemployed younger workers. Wolfgang Engelmann thinks that 70,000 younger metalworkers could take the place of colleagues who retire early. But the Hamburg resident was given wrong figures by the headquarters in Frankfurt--in an internal document of the Metalworkers' union leadership a figure of barely 30,000 newly opened jobs is mentioned. For Franz Steinkuehler, leader of the Stuttgart local of the Metalworkers' Union, this figure is too low. Ne is agitating among union leadership and members for a more comprehensive plan: In the future the workers reaching age 57 will work only three-quarter time, at 58 only half time and should retire at age 59. The union man has made calculations as to the benefit of this comprehensive 5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 N()R 7FFICIAL USE ONLY suggestion for the labor market--67,622 jobs in the metal industry and 8395 among steelworkers. Steinkoehler also pleads that the pay pension should not be negotiated at the same time as contract terms but later. The reason? The retirement policy is eo complicated that the contract negotiati.ons planned for February 1982 would unnecessarily be prolonged by it, and "we could be pressured for agreement." That could mean that the union would be forced to make great con^essions in both the salary increases as well as the paid retirement areas. However, Steinkuehler wants to evoke just as few illusions about salary increases as union leader Janssen. A shortening of the working life means that the firms would have to expend money that will then not be available for higher salaries. Says Steinlcuehler: "Of course we can't have that. That would be icing on the cake." Opinions still differ about the ataount that metalworkers would have to give up in their salaries in favor of early retirement. The Metalworkers' Union claims, "Not even one percent of salary." The employers' union Gesamtmetall is talking of 2 percent. Behind the scenes union leaders are already talking about figures in a possible contract: "We can be happy if we get to sign at 3.5 percPnt plus contract rates." This would not even meet the inflation rate of 7 percent. The employers still do not know how to react to the union proposal. Peter Stihl, spokesman ~or the employers in Baden-Wurttemberg, last weekend flatly re~ected the paid retirement. It would be so costly that pay increases for 1982 would have to be "so unpleasantly low" that the union could not defend the contract to its membership. Besides, pensions are a matter for the state and should remain so. On the other hand, the supreme federation Gesamtmetall praised the moderate tone of the Metalworkers' Union. After all, employer representatives have already calculated the benefits of a paid retirement for the firms. A younger staff is more efficient. Besides, the employers could demand that the Metalworkers' Union abandon its proposal for a 35 hour week in return for concessions in the field of paid retirement. The idea of paid retirement will be of concern for other branches of the industry as we11. Even before mapping his own union's strategy Eugen Loderer, chief of the metalworkers, obtained the approval of almost all members of DGB. Only the Printing and Paperworkers' Union did not agree. The other unions want to copy the paid retirement agreement if the Metalwork~rs' Union's initiative is succ2ssful. COPYRIGHT: 1981 Gruner + Jahr AG & Co. 9240 CSO: 3103/99 6 FOR OF~':~IAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400480040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ECONOMIC ITALY SVIMEZ REPORT CITES NORTH-SOUTH ECONOMIC C~P . Milan IL SOLE-24 ORE in Italian 25 Oct 81 pp 1, 2 (Article by Nando Mazzei~ IText~ Rome--Industrialization and urban renewal arE ~he two main problems imiolved in the issue of the South in this phase, aad these are the issues which special intervention will have to concentrate on more in order to reduce the persistent gap between North and South. The Svimez (Association for the Indus- trial Development of the 5outh) 1981 report concentrates on these two aspects of the situati~n in particular depth, pointing out that all the regions in southern Italy are well below the national average in per capita production, and only Abruzzo, and to some extent M~olise and Sardegna, show that they have reached higher levels, above the average of southern regions, thanks to a type of diversified industr.ialization with plants that have the lowest index of sector3.a1 concentration, In these regions, according to the report, a trend is developing which has already been encountered in the North and in the central South in other decades, namely that of "an extension Cowards the South of the territorial propagation of development." Farther south, in fact, one finds areas in which intense urban and demographic concentration are a handicap to development, or region3 like Ca,labria having the lowest index of industrialization and production per capita or, finally, phenomena of regression like in ~aranto and Brindisi, in Puglia, and Syracuse in Sicily. Ix~ this laat case, the diffi- culties are due to a vast spectrum of factors, among which the difficulties of large plants and the urban problem stand out, as we11 as demographic expansion. These are becoming, more and more clearly, real obstacles to economic progress and to the locaCion in these areas of new industries. - It is with these obvious internal gaps within the area and with related prob~ems that the policy for the South oi the 1980's will have to come to grips, inter- vening not only at a national level but also at a regional level. Ttxe report - emphasizes the impartance of industrialization to amass revenue, and insists on rejecting as inadequate the suggestions of those who propose concentrating on developing the tertiary sector and on deindustrialization as an alternative to development. Only industry can guarantee the absorption of the excess labor supply in the South (816,000 people, or 10 percent of the labor force, as opposed to 882,000 in the Center and North, or 5.3 percent of the labor force). This + excess of labor wi.ll tend to continue in the South because uf the continuing 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONL1' expansion of the population of this area, despite the slower growth rate regis- tered in recent years. Of course this stimulus to be given to industrialization, especially sophisticated sectors, must not neglect the development of a tertiary _ elite; but the report warns against the possibility of developing this type bf tertiary sector in metropolitan areas like those in the South, because overpopu~ lation, scarcity of civic s4rvices and housing, their "operational failure, unemployment, and urban det~erior.ation are phenomena which are strictly inter- dependent and must be attacked jointly." Mere physica.l renewal is not enough, the report warns, in this connection. There must be a social-urbanistic renewal which makes it possible to find adequate solutions to the problems of employment and unemployment through long-term intervention at a broad territorial level. But to do this--in other words to do what policies for the South have not done in the last decade--we must resort to ways of plaunin~ that link the political will of the central authorities to that of local authorities. As for the overall picture in the South this past year, the most significant data in the report decry an increase in ~opulation, going from 34.9 percent of the natioa's population in 1973 to 35.6 percent in 1980, and, for the same period, an increase in the prop~rtion of the population employed in agriculture of from 41.3 percent to 46.7 percent and of those occupied in industry from 52.6 to 54.3 percent. For the same period, the added value of agriculture increased by only 0.1 while that for industry increased 0.7. Be~ween 1973 and 1980, bank deposits increased froan 16.4 percent of the national tota~. to i7.6 percent, but jobs diminished from 15.3 to 13.~ percent. In this past yea.r there has been a relative contraction in private consumption, and a recovery in investment in absolute values which does not correspond tu the rate of accumulation, however, which fell in the South to 25.9 percent of the nationaZ average as compared to 29.5 percent in 1974. There was also a reduction in payments made by the state and a 30 percent reduction in contributions made by the Cassa del Mezzogiomo (Fund for Southern Italy) to productive sectors. COPYRIGHT: 1981 Editrice I1 Sole-24 Ore s.r.l. 9855 CSO: 3104/37 8 FOR OFF[CIAL US~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 i~OR Uf~l~i('IA1. USE ONLY POLITICAI, FEDEbtAI, REPUBLIC OF GEQMANY - POIlVTS OB DISSENSION BETWEk.'N KOHL, GEISSLE;R NOT~D Hamburg CAPITAZ in German Nov 81 PP ~4~ 15 LAA2`tiCle by Ludolf HeT'�'!!~A*+ni "Left Tur11,"~ ~ex~ The SPD leaderehip trio ie at odde within itself = but the CDII is not much better off. Helmut Kohl mu~t de~end him- selP e~g~a:inet the attacke of hte own eecretary-general. Opposition leader Helmut Kohl says he would rather not face the probleme confront- ing Helmut Schmidt. For that matter, he does not need them beoause he hae probleme of his own. The chanoellor ma.y be oonfronted Mith rebellion in the ranlcs but 3.n - Kohl~s aase it is diaeension at the tap. Whenever he txiee to lay down opposition etrategy, his marching ordere are thwarted by the very man who ahonld maintain a relationehip of special.truat to the party c~airnoan.- the ~ecretaxy-general. Bat Heiner Geiaeler, 51, doea not let a sitagle opportunity go by without underminiag the authority of his peraonal friend, Helmnt Sohl. l~lhile the party ch,ai~man ie atriving for harmor~y, Geiseler publicly ~a11e for "readinese to debate" aad an - "opening for neer ideas." To ehow exa,ctly what ha mean~ by that~ he oY~era proof of hie non-adherenae to the party line given out by goka]. in each and every medium tha,t provides him With a fornm. At the v~ery moment that the CAII/CSII domi.nated I.srid gov~rrvmente were prepariz~ to introduae draft legielation in the Hnndeerat thb6t r?ould aurtail radicsil abuse of the freedom of aeaembly, C:eiasler edviged the perty not to c~eate the impreseion that it r?aa out to defend the sta?tue quo Mith the help of rubber bu7.leta aad re- etrictions on t~he right to demonstrate. At the very moment t~hat young vote~e~ d3aappoiated by the coalition~s maohinations and the trealmees of the grovez~ment~ r?ere elowly turning to the CDII/QfiII, ths eaor~te~sy..,general oame out with the etate- ment t~hat the trend againet the CTJU/CSII among yonng voters had not yet abated. At the v~ery moment that the peace movement was even aausiag the SPD to hav~ eeoond thou~ta, Geissler, the individualiBt Sxabiaa, wae trying to make the p~aaenike in his own oamp :.ook better, calling Yors "~ore peaae, ffiore freedon from torae, fe~+er r?eapone." He also adopted maverick positions on controvereial issuea which had not been couated among those in whiah he had ar~r exg~~tiee before. Withon~ maah ado, he oame out againet arms ehipmente to 3audi-Arabia whoae g~avernment he xeferred to w"uastable" and "lese than eerious." He revi~ted thi~ poaition later but had by ~hen provi.ded fihe g~overnment, whiah had been nndeoided on the isaue, with a mnch~eeded respite. 9 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02109: CIA-RDP82-00854R000400080040-5 NOR OFFIC'IA1. USH: ONI.Y More reaently, the prominent dmviationiet of whoa D~E)'PSCHE ZEITIIi~G eaid ia 1977 that he wae Milling to upeet "a~r emd all appleoas.-ta" ie trying to restrnetroa~s the forei~ poliay orient4tion oY his party. &?hl vould lik~s to oes t~e govrrn~ ment g~o before the public by i~ss1P to e=plain the p~oblems t~e dstent~ po- liay hae enoouatered. The perty leaderehip xae a11 tY1e a~ose smrp~is~d th~rsi~re r~rhen a piece by Geiseler appear~d in the pnrty ~ s D~~OTSCB7~YD-iT~TIO]W-DI~fBT rhioh Ba,id 3t was the CDII/CSU' e goal to enter into a ooatinuiag ezahou~g+e of id~eaa a~d information with the So~viet lead~rehip. 'Phe tra'th ies ho~ov~r~ tha,t this ras not eatirely unexpeated. Geiaeler had said several times p~iausly t~e?t the 01~U/II~IT ehould provide Yor "more of aa open3s~g to the Saet." gnother instanae xhen the differencee betw~en party ahait~a an~d seorot~y- general becaane appasent wes during ths prep4ration~ for t}u Hambarg p~tty co~ grese in early November. Geiesler wanted to tura it into a yonth aseeab]tiy but ~ohl wan~ed to ae� the ].arg~e politioa,]. ieeu~ee debe~ted. gohl did wia o~tit ia th~' end but forums for yonng people did ta~oa plsce aa ~rell ia t~hi.ah t~a p~rty x~s sub~e~ted to public scratir~y. Geisaler did not reatriat himselt to an.ah a,ttemtpts to nek,s the party abaiz~? - aver into a figurehead who merely eYe~ntea ths poliaios of his sscretai.y-,g~sn~sral. He went beyond t~at, looki~ng ior oppos~tunitiea to temt his strongth ags3aat t~.~at of Helmut Kohl. Early thie yeouc~ the perty ahais~an had intor~sd t~ then p~rtr me,nag+er tJlf Fink t~at he expoatad hin to step doma by t~e middle oi the ~ar. Gefealer aountered by isauing a publio dsalaration of oonfidaaos on Finlc~s 'be- half and the statement that Fink vonld et~r on the ~ob for as long a~ he ~aysd Geiasler~s confidence. Ia fact, the labor lat+ does etipnlate ttist tha ~anmg~er could only be diemiaeed by the sear~tary-,g~eneral; but if pa~rty loyalties ~rers what they ought to be, there ie no qvsstiori aa to whoae wie~ea vov~].d bs reApea- ted by the pa,r'ty hierarcby. ~ When Fink did etep down-and wes sent ~o Berlin as senator for eocial 4tfairs to resolve the iseue-Kohl asked that the party me~ag~er~s pooition be abolished for _ econom~r reasone. But Geiaeler once again mad~e uee oi hia prerogstiv~e and sppoin~- ted Peter Radunski, head of the publie afYairs diri.sioa st party hsadquartaro~ as new party menager. In this case, a, comp~omiee we,s rea,ohed wi.th Badn~sld. hold- ~ ing down both ~obs eimultaaeouely. In September, Geiseler aalled a press aonferenoe Kohl had e=p~ese]y aalaed n~ be held to annonnce draft guidelines for the party oongr~es. Hy ~tu~ping the gan~ the secretary-,g~eneral oaused difYianlties for the p~rty whea snboeqwent ahax~g+ee requeeted by the party presidium took on the air oi a palaoe r~volu~ion aga,inst :e authore of t2~-., original draft. Without a doubt, the arelatioriehip betwesn Helmat Kohl and hie eecsetary-g+eneral ie in aha~mblee. It ie plain to eee #~hat the twA loaeer friends fro~m 8hiaeland- Palatinate have different politiQal antecedente. Geiealer, whose Yather xorked ~ for the old Center Paz-ty, has remained a leftwing Cen~er Party politioian at heart. Kohl, on the other hand, belongs to the enlightened aoneervative aamp-- a political orientatton ~he poetwar C~ d~veloped as ita mery orn oontribntion to Gezma,n political life. 10 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400480040-5 FOR JFFIC'IAI. USE nN1,Y This leaves the question unanewered whether a perty that aepires to taking over the grov~s~m~ent cezt afford to laav~a its eecretary-~g+eneral flagrautly disregard the v+ery precepta of party diecipline he ougi~t ia faat to nphold. As the ezecutor of his part~r chairman~s policiee he aould aonceivably find his own viewa aonfliating with them. But in snc,h a case, he would not rebel against ~hem but offer hie re- aignation. COPYRIGfl'1.': 1981 Gruner + Jahr AG & Co. 9478 Cso: 3~03/~33 FOR OFFtC1AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400080040-5 POLITICAL FRANCE PS-DEPUTY, GOVERNMENT RELATIONS; ECONOMIC, FOREIGN POLICY Paris LE NOUVEL OBSERVATFUR in French 17 Oct 81 pp 48-50 [Interview with Lionel Jospin by Albert du Roy and Kathleen Evin; date and place not given.) [Text] Today, the great debates for the Socialists are more in the Parliament and in the antechambers of power than in the somewhat deserted "old house." It is therefore on the results of these 5 months of government action that Lionel Jospin, first secretary of the Socialist Party, answered our questions. LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: What do you think of Edmond Maire's statements? Lionel Jospin: Two words: it is Edmond Maire's habit, before each Socialist Party cangress, to assist us with his public advice. This time too, it must be that. On the basic issues, I would like to recall that at this time the nationalization battle against the Right and big business is beginning. Each of us is freely choosing the place he will take in it. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: As first secretary of the Socialist Party, how do you assess the new administration's actions 5 months after its installation? What is going well? What is not going so well? Lionel Jospin: I may lack objectivity: tnis government is my government. I am not a member of it. But I am at its side, an actor and not a spectator or a judge. The most important point is this one: the change in France really began after 10 May. History has shown us so many parties who proclaim themselves leftist when they are the opposition only to abandon all or part of their program once in power. As for the Socialists, they are doing what they said they would do on all the large issues. I well know that there are changes on some points, ~ such as on the energy problem. But they are moderate, and the reasons have been given. In the end, I find that as f~r as the major social and economic problems are concerned, based on which the Right was predicting our apocalypse, the govern- ment is in control of the situation. We are still confronted w�~th unemployment and inflation. But neither of the two evils can be attributed to us. And at least we deny their inevitability. It can even be stated that the progress of 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY unemployment is checked, and there is no side-slipping on inflation ~nd prices. Finally, br~.3d structural reforms have begun--must we list them?--which will bear their fruit in time. LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: Would you say, then, that the Socialists are not doing any w~~rse than their predecessors? Lionel Jospin: They are certainly doing differently. Furthermore, they are doing somet-ing which does not show up in the indexes. They are re~Teating the bases for true social cooperation in the fac~ cf the problems posed b}~ the crisis, with the development of solidarity, of continuous dialogse between lab~r and management, of decentralization of responsibilities and, in general, development of social responsibility. But, let us be realistic, the situation is such that we can hardly set victorious economic goals for ourselves in the short term. We will be judged on the medium term. LE NOUVET. OBSERVATEUR: No dark areas in this assess~,ent? Lionel Jc~pin: I believe that there is a problem with the flow of information. Primarily between the administration, the miniaters, thQir co-workers and the parliamentary group. The work load and the work pace are such that the elected officials sometimes feel they lack the time to participate in the drafting of _ texts. They perceive them~ if I may say so, at the "finished product" level. We would like to be informed at the "semi-finiehed product" level. I am dis- covering that the parliamentary apparatus takes time. ::~wever, for our firsC reforms we needed to go quickly. Things will go better in the future, I imagine. There is also the problem of explaining our policy. The opposition speaks more and does less. Today we tend to believe that our actions speak for themselves. We should do a little more ed~~cating. And, concurrently, prevent some of our officials from annotmcing project~ which are not yet decided upon, too early, ~ too quickly. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: Must the Socialist Party, as happened in the debate on immigrants, settle the possible disputes between its elected officials and the administration? Lionel Jospin: The party's executive board does not set itself up as arbitrator between the parliamentary group and the administration. A matter is only referred ~ to it, hy *he president of the group, when there is a problem among the members of Parliament. Then it is the executive board who decides. The Socialist - Party is not a cog in the state wheel, it belongs to society. It must inform the Socialist ministers of the state of opinion, of the views of its militants and its officials. But it cannot constan~cly take the place of the executive. LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: What is the governmenC's ma*gin of freedom with regard to the Socialist Party program? Lionel Jospin: The government is not ~ust socialist. It is a government of , union of the Left and even of a broader assemblage. This simple fact creates a certain distance with regard to the Socialist Party. Furthermore, the govern- ment is faced with the need to make decisions which weigh directly on the life of the Frencr. and to measure their consequences accurately. 13 _ ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 _ LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: Does this distance represent the margin between what is _ desir~ble and what is possible? Lionel Jospin: The government must realize as much of the desirable as possible. For the moment it is applying the program approved by the people during the presidenti~.l election. To go beyond that will only be possible after a demo- cratic vote. Of course, the farther one goes, the more new problems can arise for which this program provides no answer. The Socialist Party will have to express its opinion more often. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: I~ it possible to foresee a split between the future choices of the Socialist Party and those of the administration? Lionel Jospin: Possible, yes. Probable, no. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: What is the status of your relationship with the Com- munist Party? Lionel Jospin: The Communist Party respects government solidarity as th~ essential. Having said this, it is obvious that it cannot renounce its own existence, or autonomous expression. But it seems to me that its tone is ~ adapted to the new period. As we are, it is retaining its right to legitimate criticism. Basically, our relationship is good enough, which is a pleasant change from the previous period. But is it the sign of an in-depth change? Only time will tell. For my part, I am not naive: I have forgotten nothing. And I am following what is occurring in the Co~urtist Party with attention. For example, the reasons for its decline, at le~st electorally. I did not know that the causes were so distant. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: Are you going to review the structure of the leftist union municipalities between naw and 1983? Lionel Jospin: The power ratio between the leftist partiea has obviously changed. Drawing up the lists for the 1983 municipal elections is not yet on the agenda. When the time comes, we will, as usual, take the realities into consideration. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: Contrary to the history of the Socialist Party since Epinay, it seems that the next congress in Valence, at least in appearance, must mark the disappearance of "political factions." Does this seem possible and desirable to you? Lionel Jospin: The answer to this question must not be institutional, but - political. If the elimination of the factions is an ar_tuality, it is good. If it is a fiction, it is bad. LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: Recently, at Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, Michel Rocard violently contested the new distribution of influence within the Soc:talist Party? 14 FOR OFPICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000400080044-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY J Lionel Jospin: Ttie problem will be brought up and settled in form and in sub- stance within the party. The former "A" faction presented a text on political orientation which I signed with other comrades. We heard from all sides: "We are in agreement! We want to sign!" We made only one ccmdition: to have a _ ma~ority within the directing bodies of the party (steering committee, execu~ tive board, secretary's office). In our discussions, no one, to my kaowledge, has contested the fact that in a vote among the militants we would undoubtedly have obtained clearly more than 51 percent of t:~e vote. If this had been con- tested, it would have sufficed for each faction to agree to "count its own," which I supported. Throughout the party, the leaders discussed and the mili- tants voted on the results of these negotiations. Tais is the reality. There- fore, no grandiloquent ~catement! LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: Has admisston of the former minorities to the Socialist Party's national secretariat been achieved? Lionel Jospin: For some of them, it has. For others it is completely possible. This will depend on the congress. LE NOWEL OBSERVAT~UR: Let us go back to the evaluation. Do you feel that the government has completed the nationalizations that ~aere necessary, or that it should go further? Lionel Jospin: Before going further, it must first succeed with the nationaliza- tions. This success will be achieved if the rate of investment grows, leading to an acceleration of technical progress, co gains in productivity, to the modernization of these companies. This effort should cause a stabilization and even an increase in the number of ~obs. It will contribute to our balance of trade through a better response to the requirements of international competi- tion within the framework of finar,cial stability. There is no doubt of success as far as the nationalized companies themselves are concerned. Just look at the results of the existing public enterprises. The aim of the nationalizations is not to stand in the way of the development of individual initiative and small and medium-size companies, but to support and encourage them. Public management should also enable the growth of democracy in work, and it will be necessary to pay particular attention to organizing worker participation in the management of these companies. LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: Is there a risk that certain deputies will profit from the parliamentary debate to go further? Lionel Jospin: I don't think so. Since to have completed alrexdy the national- izations which we are completing is a big event. In relation to the economic policy and the ideological taboos which still dominate in the Western world, it is a "split." LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: Regarding national solidarity, many were shocked to see the Socialist Party oppose the participation of officials in the effort against unemployment. 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 Lionel Jospin: First of all, let us note that under the solution decided upon, the officials are on ex~ctly the same level as the others: if their incomes reach a certain level they ;aill pay the unemployment tax. LL NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR: But when, as a tradeoff ~or their ~ob security, it was a question of having them contribute to the UNEDIC [National Union for Employment in Industry and Commerce], thus aligning them with the other wage earners, the Socialist Party was opposed. Lionel Jospin: It is true, we must avoid having Cwo workers' classes~ one threatened by unemployment, and the other protected. But the Socialist's traditional ,slogan is "the righC to work" and not "work is a privilege." And - the tradition that I perceived in the union's action was respect for the advantages acquired. The disadvantaged sre ~rogressively being brought to the level of the advantaged and not the reverse. Our goal is to reduce the number of unemployed, not to punish those w:~o are employed. I am adding a political explanation to our position: was it the role of a Socialist g~vernment to do what no rightwing government has dared to do in 23 years? Particularly winen opposed by a category of French people who, in the large majority, voted for the Left? In polittcs, I don't recommend masochism. LE NOU~IEL OBSERVATEUR: Are you satisfied with the tax reform? Lionel Jospin: There has been no tax reform. We have not had the time and therefore we are still depending on an un~ust and failing tax system t~ finance most of the budg~t. In this situation, the government has been comp~-1.led to draw f rom certain categories which it would have been desirable not to touch _ again. But all the new fiscal measures are going in the right di:_~~tton. Is it necessary to mention the tax on wealth, the leveling off of tax reli.f for dependents, the fight against tax fraud? And then we would have to discuss expenditures. They mean: economic recovery, creation of jobs, reseQr~~h ef- forts, social justice. There, the Right is silent. In-depth tax reform is urgent in order to finance this policy more equitably. It must be conducted seriously. LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: Do the President's statements on the East/West ba'lance-- or rather imbalance--conform to the basic beliefs of the Socialist Party? Lionel Jospin: Yes, they are in agreement as long as it is well noted that since the motion by the Metz Congress, the situation has changed: the invasion of Afghanistan, the change in the American admtnistration, the Iranian crisis. It is the facts which have changed, not our principles. LE N~WEL ~BSERVATEUR: Doesn't this policy offen a pacifist sympathy within the Socialist Party? Lionel Jospin: I will say, as doPS Francois Mitterrand himself, that within the Socialist Party what interests us is peace and not pacifism in itself. Munich was, it seems, a victory for peacel All Socialists know that the danger exists in the West, with a disorganized rearmament, as well as in the East, with excessive military deployment. In Europe there is an imbalance which ~ favors the Soviets. Balance must be reestablished towards the lower end of t:~e scale, if not it will establish itself at the upper end, which will be danqeroua 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY for peace. Our policy must be ~onsidered in all its aspects. A step such as the French /Mexican declaration on Salvador is a good demonstration that it is not a matter of being Atlantic or anti-At~antic, but of a�firming principles while proposing concrete solutions. LE NOWEL OBSERVATEUR: In taking sides on the political problems of the con- tinent of South America, France is directly opposed to the United States. Can this new attitude go beyond the symbolic level? Lionel Jospin: The political, historical and cultural links between Europe and Latin America are as obvious and of earlier existence thaa the economic and strategic links formed between the United States and South America. Aad ouer the past 10 years, the Socialiat Party has established privileged relations with the democratic movements on this continent which are struggling against dictators. Despite ~he different levels of development, these countrie~ are very close to us. To accept the reality of dictatorship in their countries is to accustom ourselves to the idea here. If democracy is reborn there, it will be strengthened here. The United States wrongly places Latin America's problems within the East/West contexC. For us and for the Socialist Interna- - tional, whose leaders are not suspected of pro-Soviet tendencies, it is above all a matter of autonomous economic and social development and of respect for human rights. It is tragic to make a whole part of this continent, so rich in potential, improductive through violence and terror. Europe must act. LE NOWEL OBSERVAT:UR: What lesson do ,you draw from Sadat's assasi~nation? Lionel Jospin: What struck me at the funeral service was that the Egyptian people had to be held back. This is symbolic: to conduct a foreign policy as original as his, President Sadat would have had to have had a domestic consensus. For his economic and social policy no doubt would not enable attainment of this gaal. What also strikes me is that all the Western countries were represented, but almost no Arab countries. His friends were there, but not his family. The foYV?er considered Sadat a man of peace (this is also my opinion) the latter, a traitor. Such a gap is concerning. But how can an area of understanding be reestablished between a part of the Third World and ourselves? If Western rationalism means massive imemployment, shantytawns, malnutrition, flagrant inequalities, and outside interference, it will be re~ected. And this has already begun. COPYRIGHT: 1981 "Le Nouvel Observateur" 9693 CSO: 3100/101 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 POLITIC~LL ITALY ALLEGED SOCIALIST PLAN TO SPLIT CGIL UNION Drop in Union Membership Milan IL MONDO in Italian 9 Oct 81 pp 12-13 [Article by Renzo Rosati: "The Desire Count"] [Text] The first warning signal arrived, once again, from union membership. A decrease in membership of 20,G~0 among Piedmont metalworkers and just as many among those in Lombardy. In the entire Lombardy industrial sector, 40,000 members are about to leave the union. From north to south the decline follows the location of the traditional bastions: 30 percent of Puglia laborers will not renew their membership and, in Bari alone, 5,700 out of 10,000 will quit. At the end of November, when CGIL [Italian Confederation of Labor], CISL [Ital- ian Confederation of. Labor Unions] and UIL [Italian Union of Labor] will take stock, one will find out, perhaps, that in spite of substantial gains among retirees, 1981 has been even worse than 1980 which already was a bad year (the CGIL alone lost 93,000 members among active workers, partially made up by retirees) . However, on a general overview of union strength nev~~r as full of uncertainties as at the present time, tt~e decrease in membership i.s not the leading problem worrying national and local officials; who, nevertheless, do nat underestimate its effects, including material ones: Angelo Airoldi, FIOM [Federation of Metal- lurgy Industry Workers] secretary from Lombardy, explains: "Our revenue will be 2 billion lire less. As far as the general picture is concerned, this is like saying tliat, atl of a sudden, Genoa FIOM would be closing down." "What is happening," points out Agostino Marianetti, CGIL's number two man, "is not that ti~e union is being re_jected, but that it is being increasingly criticized." Ottaviano 1)el Turcc~, rLM [T'ederation of Metalworkers] secretary, remarks: "Lay- offs, unemployment, wild economic crisis are the causes for the reduction in union memhership. If we want to regain credibility, in addition to membership we must look elsew}~ere, forgetting about the figures." 1.ook in wtiat direction? Rank and file and top management agree in indicating member representation as the key question. The factory council mechanism, through which representation is exercised, seems, in fact, to be ~ammed. And, according to some, to have gone wild. 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICI~L USE ONLY The UIL, as it has been happening i.ncreasingly more frequently, has ignited the powder. Massimo Mazzantini, Milan's UIL secretary, in a document on the rela- tions between the factory and terrorism at Alfa Romeo, sternly accused the coun- cils for failing to represent the members, for failing to nonitor their mood, for failing to observe the biennial expiration of the renewal of the mandates, and for failing to exercise any control over the rank and file and on them- selves. "A state of affairs," concluded Mazzantini, "that not only places the representation in a crisis, but that opens new space to terrorists." Immediate and violent was the rebuttal of the CGIL and CISL. "Does the UIL, perhaps, wish ta go back to the method of long lists, of internal co~ittees like those of the 1950's?" asks Antonio Pizzinato, CGIL secretary for Lombardy. "Factory councils are the labor union's backbone for unity," remarks Sandro Antoniazzi, Milan's CISL secretary, "let's take any necessary initiative for strengthening our relation with the rank and file, but let's be careful in avoid- ing the councils' debacle." The matter also involves southern industries. On Wednesday, 23 September, the general assembly of factory councils convened at Brindisi's petrochemical plant tu deal with the renewal of mandates: 105 out of 150 delegates deserted the meet- ing. Three days earlier, at Taranto's ITALSIDER, a 2-hour strike called by FIOM failed, not only because the rank and file boycotted it, but a large number of union delgates as well. Giovanni Cazzato, Taranto's CGIL secretary, admits that: "We have a very serious representatio:~ crisis. We have a 70-percent rate of unionization, but at this point it is a theoretical figure, in view of the fact that only 20-30 percent of the workers participate in meetings and strikes. The contrasting reactions among the three confederations and the various cate- gories toward the proposals on economic policies introduced by Giovanni Spado- lini's government, must be added to the decline in membership, to the matter of factory councils and to the representation crisis. And, probably, many aspects of the same problem are involved: the union model, born out of the 1968 and 1969 struggles, finalized by unifying mechanisms, solid and cohesive in the last decade, is probably undergoing a crisis. It is too soon to say that the union's unity is in crisis: certainly, the union's dream of the 1970's is in crisis. The leadership and the rank and file, all realize the immediate danger of this situation: that the spirit of confedera- tion, the return to parallelism toward the parties intended as home base, in other words, the desire to count may prevail. There are those who believe that the only remedy to this danger, which would truly cause the end of the union's unity, would be to listen directly to the voice of the workers. It is an old idea of Giorgio Benvenuto, which the UIL's leader is now reintroducing with vigor; Benvenuto told IL MONDO: "To exorcize the fear of counting, there is only one method; make the workers count. Ask, therefore, their opinion on the whole range of problems to be discussed: whether to act on the automatic wage indexation or directly on salaries; whether to favor contract renewals or to accept a partial pause in exchange 19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLIi~ for guarantees on severance pay and mobility. But it is urgent that voting be reintroduced in the factories and on concrete proposals. Because of thi~ point we don't know anymore what is the rank and file and who are the pPripheral members." Starting from these considerations, Benvenuto is about to launch an offensive against the present factory council mechanism, "which now," he states, "is just a caricature of what it should be." In support of the initiative, the UIL cites the results of a survey conducted in 525 factories in the industrial tri- angle and in Veneto. The resulting picture is alarming: each factory has its own rules for the election of union delegates, the 2-year expiration term far the renewal is seldom enforced, there is no record, either territorial or na- tional, of factory councils. The same clause on union protection, prescribed by the workers; bylaws, is applied at FIAT and Alfa Romeo under different terms. Furthermore, the present composition of the councils no longer reflects the structure of the labor force; according to the UIL's survey, 90 percent of union delegates are laborers and, of these, only 70 percent are of the third level (assembly line for metalworkers): "It is obvious," Benvenuto remarks, "that there is a leveling at the lowest ranks, that, practically, workers have no representation and that all this hinders any discussion on professior~alism." What Benvenuto wants to accomplish on a large scale, someone has alreadv accom- plished here and there. For example, a survey by the Pietro Seveso foundation on FILM's [presumably FIOM] and CISL's metalworkers shows that 50.6 percent of the members seek better pay and recognition of professionalism, that 68.8 per- cent wuuld accept mobility, even if negotiated, that only 15.3 percent believe that the union should not get involved with productivity. In appearance, ,slmost the opposite of CISL's traditional line. Also party affiliations have been changing: in 10 years, the DC decreased from 80 to 4~1 percent, the PSI rose to 22.5 percent from 11 ~ercent, the PCI to 18.5 percent from 5 percent. It i.s in this multicoloracl picture that the desire to count and Benvenuto's attempts of having the workers count are being injected. Until now, this last proposal has been received by the other confederations with some diffidence: Benvenuto is being accused of open gambling, namely without taking into account the UIL's real dimension, of waving the referendum like a slogan without the support of concrete contents and adequatz structures for its realization. How- ever, greater con~ensus is becoming apparent, especially as far as the CGIL is concerned. "Without doubt," Marianetti admits, "we are at fault in our rela- tions with the rank and file. In general, union culture is at a standstill, we have to start it in motion." Anti-Inflationary Pact Milan IL MONDO in Italian 9 Oct 81 pp 13-15 [Article hy Lorenzo Scheggi: "Anti-Inflationary Pact--Who Will Be the First To Break It"] ['Text] If it is broken because of the government which breaks down, the union does not break down, othenaise it breaks down." The interpretation of this 20 FOR OFFICIAL USF. ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 i~'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY politically union-oriented riddle, authored by Ottaviano Del Turco, FIOM-CGIL adjunct secretary general, is not difficult. In a few words, it means that what is still left of the union's unity is in the hands of Beniamino Andreatta, treasury minister, and in those of Giovanni Marcora, his industry colleague. It means, even more clearly, that at this point the union, after months and months of polemics on the anti-inflationary pact, automatic wage indexation, the dynamic of salaries, can manage to stay united only as far as rejection of the government's measures is concerned. "But if instead of saying no, we should say yes," many of the leading confederation officers told IL MONDO, "we would arrive at ruptures that this time could be truly irreparable." The truth is, in fact, that among the many issues at stake in this maxinegotia- tion among government, unions and business, there is also the future of the rela- tiuns among the CGIL, CISL and UIL, which seems now destined to follow predeter- mined tracks on the basis of what the developments of the anti-inflationary pact will be. The vi~ible solutions are, substantially, two. Both, however, are sub- ordinated to a premise: the anti-inflationary pact, conceived originally as a social pact, is by now mere fantasy. The communists, afraid of signing a blank debit note on behalf of a government and a ma~ority to which they do not belong, do not want it. Nor do many Christian democrats, for fear that layman Giovanni Spadolini may make it where all their colleagues who succeeded one another at Palazzo Chigi failed. But what are these two scenarios? How will the unions react in one case or the other? There is Neither a Pact Nor Traumatic Breaks Giorgio Benvenuto, for example, sustains that "partial agreements may be reached," as an alternative. Several small agreements, Del Turco sustains, "so that nobody can claim complete success or complete failure." CGIL socialists sustain that "on the basis of several partial agreements it may be possible to obtain at least some results which are not completely negative so that the union may consequently honor the commitment of handling the dynamic of salaries, maintaining them within the agreed ceiling of inflation, for the for.thcoming renewal of con- tracts. Anyhow, one thing is certain: in this scenario we don't talk about automatic wage indexation. Not only will tnere not be any agreement for its substantial modification (a possibility that, on the other hand, has not been suggested yet by any union), but not even the proposal of economist, Ezio Taran- telli, supported by the CISL, will get through. In this event, namely of partial agreements, the union front will see the CGIL and UIL on one side and the CISL on the other. The first two, united in particu- lar by the preoccupation of not creating too many problem~ for Spadolini, is a common goal of all the political forces present in the two confederations, including the communists in their own way. This solution is not acceptable to Pierre Carniti's CISL on the eve of a congress where instead there will be strongly reintroduced the necessity for an anti- inflationary pact rigorously limiting investments, prices and tariffs and which the union may be inclined to approve, agreeing to limit wage indexation in- creases for a while. I~ is, therefore, against partial solutions, against the 21 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONL1' _ alternative of many limited agreements that Carniti spoke up during all the trade congresses he attended this last week. "We will not sign phony pac'ts," he said in Termoli, at the home builders congress. "The truth is," one hears from the other twu confederations, "that Carniti is ill-disposed because Spado- lini did not include Tarantelli's formula in the economic program, with the re- sult that he now finds himself isolated, since re lacks the political support . which would have pushed forward a proposal *_hat now, instead, is dead." One thing is certain: Carniti will not give up. Because he must show his or- ganization that he is not the secretary general of defeats (the reduction in the work schedule }ias not been ap~roved for the time being, nor the 0.50 percent fund). ~And, in particular, because he musr show CISL's pro-Christian democrats, and there are many, that he has no intention of giving Spadolini what he 3id not give Forlani Qr Cossiga. Therefore, if the anti-inflationary pact does not go through, Tarantelli's formula included, it is almost certain that during the next few months we will see a CISL hypercritical of any government measure, ready to fight the C:,IL and UIL. Breakdown Among Covernment, Unions and Business - This second scenario has two variables, depending on who causes the breakdown. --The first: The breakdown occurs because the government, divided in its own front, does not give in at all to union requests on prices, tariffs, taxes and investments. It is the hypothesis already taken under consideration by Del Turco: "If it is broken because of the government which breaks down, the union does not break down." In this case there will not be any particular consequences. "[iowever," they say at CISL in particular, "we will have lost a great opportunity and we will find ourselves facing again the same old problems with the added drawback of hurli_ng at each other accusations for the responsibility of this failure." --But there is also a second hypothesis: That the breakdown occurs because of the union. What would happen in this case? According to IL MONDO, this was explicitly discussed in mid-September by Agostino Marianetti and Giorgio Benve- nuto, during a meeting with Bettino Craxi, PSI secretary, at the Socialist Party headquarter.s. In the end, this was the decision taken: The socialists do not want a crisis of the Spadolini government. Therefore, the socialist ministers as well as the socialist union representatives, each at their own end, must work so that breakdowns do not occur. They must continuously submit mediation propo- sals, seek alternatlve solut~.ons which would not entirely jeopardize the negotia- tions. However, ti~e breakdown could occur just the same, in which case if the major reservations originate from the CISL, CGIL socialists will continue sup- porting Luciano Lama and the UIL will move the axis of its alliances from the CISL toward the CGIL. Instead, if the CCIL communists cause the breakdown with the government, Agostino Marianetti's socialists will not hesitate to declare war, perhaps calling a CGIL congress on opposite ttieses. In this case, then, the alignment would see CGIL socialists united, plus the entire UIL and CISL. Atid this would mean, in effect, also tiie end of t}~e remaining union unity. And the unified f.ederation itself would be probably swePt away. The communists, however, decided against causing the breakdown, ~t least for the time being. 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 MOR OFF(CIA1. US~: UNLY - Wcll, what is goi.ng to be the winning scenario? It is too soon to say. It is certain, however, that if the hypothesis, even the least tramatic for the union, stiould occur, the fragments of union unity will be even further destroyed. And then? Giorgio Benvenuto tells it straight to UIL national officers: "The CGIL, CISL and UIL must establish a new unity pact: if we do not succeed, the union runs the risk of being literally crushed." COPYRIGHT: IL MONDO 1981 9758 CSO: 3104/28 23 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5 APPROVED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040400080040-5 CEIV~RAL FRANCE BRIEFS ARIANE LAUNCH DELAY--A 10-day strike that has slowed down work at the Toulouse Space Center where the European Marecs A satellite is being readied has resulted in a 4-day poatponement of the launching of the Ariaue L04 on which the Marecs A is to be the principal payload. Originally planned for 14 December, the launching is now to take place on the 18th. [Text] [Paris VALEURS ACTUELLES in French 23 Nov 81 p 19] [COPYRIGEIT: 1981 "Valeurs actuelles"] CSO: 3100/152 FND 24 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080040-5