Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
November 1, 2016
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
December 16, 1981
Content Type: 
PDF icon CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0.pdf1.34 MB
JPRS L/10198 16 December 1981 10k ‘WH(1AI. (JSI ONLV USSR Report ENERGY (FOUO 22/81) ;1] Al .1.1 TT1 I — I1 -_ i—1 AI I ,. -.-r-r- (.1iViT.’’ VA 1&I .II.WiTitJIi1 7iTiTiV ViViVit1iTif —‘;0] IFBISI FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP32-00850R000400080054-O NOTE JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals arid books, but alse from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and othe’: characteristics retained. Head1iies, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets [] are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. t4here no procissing indicator is given, the inforination was summarized or etracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a question mark and enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate with the source. Times within itemF are as given by source. The contents of this publication in no way represent the policies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. ;1] A •1•1 —YT i -_ —1 • —‘1 r1 I (•i1iViT•i....J 1A 1 iI .TL.WiViT.1411 .TiViVi ‘T Th —. ______________________________;0] COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-O JPRS L/10198 16 December 19.L USSR REPORT ENERGY (FOUO 22/81) CONTENTS ELECTRIC POWER Systematic Forecasting of Nuclear Power Industry (SISTEMNOYE PROGNOZIROVANIYE YADERNOY ENERGETIKI, 1980)..... New Book Describes Operation and Maintenance of Water— Treatment Facilities (Semen Markovich Gurvich, Yuriy Maksimovich Kostrikin; OPERATORVODOPODGOTOVKI, 1981) ............................. 13 Ways of Improving Fuel Consumption at Power Machinebuilding Plants (Yu. A. Yefimov, A. A. Barabaskin; PR1YSHIIENNAYA ENERLIETIKA, Sep 81) 18 —a— [III—USSR—37F0U0] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY EASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CI ELECTRIC POWER FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SYSTEMATIC FORECASTING OF NUCLEAR POWER INDUSTRY Moscow SISTEMNOYE PROGNOZIROVANIYE YADERNOY ENERGETIKI in Russian 1980 (signed to press 3 November 1980) pp 1—12, 237—239 Loescription, foreword, introduction, and tible of contents from book by S. Ya. Chernavskiy “Systematic Forecasting of Nuclear Power Industry”, edited by Academician M.A. Styrikovich, USSR Academy of Sciences’ Working Consultative Group fr Developing New Questions Regarding the Future Development of Power Engineering, Izdatel’stvo “Nauka”, 1,200 copies. 238 pagesf /ext7 This monograph is devoted to oe of the current pressing problems facing the power industry — the development of a theory and methods for estimating the long— term forecasting of the development of nuclear power engineering as systems Various aspects of the long—term forecasting are examined: economic, technica1 matheinat— ical and psychological. The book basically ‘-ontains the original developments of the author. A description of the models to be used for forecasting the development of the nuclear power industry is provided. Methods for selecting the optimal strategies in conditions of uncertainty are proposed. The book was written for specialists in the field of systems research in power engineering, in forecasting methodology, and making decisions in conditions of uncertainty. FOREWORD ;1] A 1•1 i’&.V a1 iI. —gA.1 .47IT! ._. . . ;0] To correctly evaluate the role of the nuclear power industry in the future power balance of the national economy is a complicated and difficult scientific task, the practical importance of which, however, is hard to overestimate. The problem is that the supplies of organic fuel in the world, while great, are limited. Also, they are distri buted unequally throughout the world. The limitedness of the most convenient kinds of organic fuel — petroleum and natural gas — for the majority of energy consumers is felt by the majority of the world’s nations even today. In seeking to preserve some petroleum and natural gas, coal and nuclear power move to the foreground in 1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 a a FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY future evaluations. In spite of the impressive world supplies of coal, the rapid rates of increasing its extraction are fraught with great difficulties. Pmong the factors preventing the intensive growth of coal extraction is the relativ’2 high cost of mining operations, the difficulties of large—scale transporting of coal by land, and the growing requirements to protect the environment. And although there are several counter acting factors, it is highly unlikely that future power engineering will depend heavily upon coal. It is more likely that there will be a joint development and use of various sources of energy — petroleum, natural gas, coal, uranium, the sun, geothermal heat and so forth. This “cooperation1’ will, ap— parent]y continue for some time; however, the rile of nuclear power in the majority of sectors of power engineering will itcrese, although at a varied pace. Even today it is important to understand the qualitative and quantitative changes that will take place during this period of growth. Two basic factors determine this prudence: the inert properties of the nuclear power industry and the many different ways that its structure can be developed. To develop a new type of nuclear reactor requires, as a rule, two to three decades. To evaluate its effectiveness it is necessary to Ionk some 30 years into the future. In this manner the selection of a strategy for the development of the nuclear power industry must be compared with the need to forecast its development for the next 50 to 60 years. At the same time this must be done while predicting the development of the other power resources. Many factors need to be considered by the person doing the forecasting; and two dangers—-the Scylla and Charybdis of forecasting——lie in wait on the road to a good forecast: whether to try to consider all the factors or to reject the majority of them. In the first case the time for making the forecast exceeds what is permissible; in the second case the model for the development is too rough to correctly reflect th’ essence of what has transpired in reality. For this reason the second option is iiot suitable for fore— casting. ;1] J.J.J -IaTJ .I. ITITiTeWaVA -].1.T iTTh ..TTTTiTiI v .________________________;0] In order to find the correct path it is necessary to develop a scientific rnthodo1ogy. As this applies to the task of forecasting nuclear power this is also important because in addition to being the newest sector it is also one of the most capital intensive sectors of the power industry. There have been many papers devoted to the future of the nuclear power industry; the majority of them contain quantitative evaluations of the technical and economic indicators of nuclear electric power stations and enterprises of the fuel cycle, evaluations of the role of nuclear power in future power balances. Some of these papers have been devoted to the development of the methodological aspects, including the use of the mathematical modeling method. Soviet literature, however, has been devoid of scientific papers dealing with systematic descriptions of the theory and methods for 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054..0 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY forecasting the development of th nuclear power industry. No such work has been done in other countries either. This monograph fills this gap. It is of interest not only to specialists engaged in forecasting the nuclea.r power industry. The book contains material, which will be helpful to those who have an interest in the methodological and practical questions concerning the use of a systematic approach, and for methodological forecasters and also to specialists in the field of expert evaluations. The book also deals with questions on the psychology of the forecasting process, questions of selecting the optimal strategies in conditions of uncertainty and mathematical models of the developing nuclear power industry. The material used in the book, nonetheless, is not a conglomerate of developments which are weakly linked together. On the contrary, the book is very rigidly and logically put together. One central idea of the author can be seen in every section — to develop a practical tool for making forecasts. The 1oic of developing such a tool forces the author to turn to the methodology of a systematic analysis and psychology of forecasting and to methods of optimizing and mathematical modeling, while subordinatiig them to the common task of research. For the most part the monograph contains the original developments of the author; for this reason several points need to be given special attention. Usually, when people speak of the use of the systematic approach to the power industry they assume that systematic research is characterized by an examination of objects as systems. Moreover, they are distracted from €xamining the role of the subject in the very process of forecasting and from taking into consideration the role played by th psychological characteristics of the subject — the forecaster. The author proposes another concept — not forecasting just the development of the system — the object, but the conception of systematic forecasting, in accordance with which for this purpose in order to understand the development of the object — the nuclear power industry in this case, it is necessary to take into con3ideration the psychological characteristics of the subject of forecasting. And on this basis to then construct the work of the prognostic groups. Including the forecaster within the system from a methodological point of view, of course, is correct and important; however, the author does not merely declare a correct methodological hypothesis, but he also demonstrates how one can take into consideration the psychological features of the forecasters during the organization of the forecasting procebs in a practical manner. While doing this the forecaster relies upon the work of psychologists that was done in specific modeled situations. However, the real forecasting activity takes place in other than modeled situations when the forecaster is subjected to the influence of numerous and complex stimuli. It was necessary to move from the modeled to the real situation; the author has made thiE move having analyzed what is new in introducing the real situation into the forecasting process. Moreover it has turned out that the real forecasting situation is richer in ;1] Al .1] — -J 1• tA1 . .. r.-;0] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 o-v9oo9ooovoooNo99oo-9daN-vI3 ‘91. eunp ‘AepSJflL :3SV3-13N NOd 3AONddV AINO asn PIIDIiO IO 1? Wu!sn 2uiseaio; uaq npuo ioqne qq ‘uouiaj —jrp aq Si.j inaq o oii aou fltt I su!SP asaq ut siuuiaja zu (uew aiaqj. •ajtC ian; eqi jo jo was(s e jo uoui —dojaAap aq jo staow pue oea.i ieajnu jo a1nn.13s aq jo uowdo —TatLap aq ioj stapom — iaiod ieajnu o wass aq jo sjapoui sq jE —laAaS jo viamdojaAp aq sapAo1d ioqn aqi ‘oo useaioj aq o uopiod p PojduloD aioui aq 2utdoiAap o utpaazoid .zo;eq ‘1eAoOH (iuteiiaun jo suopuoz ut 2utzputdo io spoqaui nisuo o spaazoid uaip .IoqnE aq sasaqodCq toopotpaul 1 DnaaSeqqVtM auBpioe UI UaW —dojeAap st o t ajp qi pue JLas: afqo aq 4(q nq ‘açqo aq 2utzu2oa ;o s tqssod aq Aq 4(tuo ou ‘iauuuw stq U! ‘puvj st sseoid upseaio; aip ut afqns e jo ,quais11 u seaioj qj. paztea1 eq ju’ a u1are qq (twxa rrpaid o (i oi ou pu uamdoTaAap io sat tqseod aAeu1ajP 4(pns o sr su ni sn uouo o ssa,oid aq 2utho1dw ‘eçqo UE U IUIeOUn (ea) awo.1aAo £jtnj o ajqeun s utod uo zinjq e o au —scxa aq •patpeid sq utod aq o aiow .io ‘puno; SE oqi iasPD —a1oj eq peqsqise seq ioqn auuui stq UI utod uot —in;q 2utsso £q £juo*o st a1qo aip ut ue.iaun siqj •a jt ssaoad uamdojeAep aq sqd aq’rssod jo iaqwnu jo ino qd tpq £Dex uwiaap io ACes O qssoduvr st r eqi esuas u UW19Ufl st eçqo aq u!od uoinjq qi u!sso1 .iojaq no q3uiq satioaçei tio.zde aq qzq ia ‘su!od uoE1flJq iunoua uz auo eqo ue jo luamdojahap aq jo s ioeçei aip ut eq sueetn stq iau jni ST ;o aueieadde at £q pau?dwoz — st uewdoIaAap qqM o 2u!p1oe ‘uaIudojaAep jo euusqns jo M.tA t aietp aiio ‘iaqoue sdoIaAap .iaqn atn ooq Sq UI 3atqo u jo s’[L1doid jrusqns aq jo uo1esaJ!uew aqi ueq iaqei eçqo u ;o .inuu aq noqu apepouj vnbepeut Jo jnsa aq ! ainnj aq O UP1’Ufl aq (sistoopoqetu aseq o 2utp1oDy api’ou attj ooi o a3uanbasuoz Mau e se uas st eq uosnjfl ue 1jEttJzadns iCiuo st au utqowos Ut pue i(je9eq uuedd8q st u utqou qq u Ciiapun guta snf se eupaw uauidoIaAap jo auassa aq Araz iad ‘•seuo atAoS 2utpnzUt ‘ oopoqew ui1 wq stos ioqine aq sajduixa jtads UI a.inn eq o uteiaun Jo deuo qi jo euassa aq jo uotsodxe aqi o uotuaw qnm uaA sq ooq aq •xoq zejq Jo ios amos at paai sr iaseaao; aq pu uot iepTSUoD out ueu ou aae saaseaioj eq o sstia3e.ae4D IeDoToq3A(sd ttDads qI41. ut ‘poqw eiaa aq sitpuiIuoD q,Eoldde utdojaAap asuas uo UI iuasiCs 8utsezaioj jewdo ue 2utnisuoz, jo tnjqoid 9q utAos oi uamuai qsaij sa jooq aqi ‘iauuem sIp u 1etitdw ;o uotexu aq zzrrsa.i o u padx st t ssu aqo UT ‘zafqo u jo auesqns aq ou q2noq jo uot iaud eouioid snm ssaoid aip jo joiuo aq sas awos ut jt ‘snqJ sossaz, usio jo sputj BnOt.LEA Jo uastxa aq o qirq saAT2 uow —ns jei eq eq pue uo ents paapow aq oi poiedwoD s uuo A7.NO Sfl ‘1VIIL4O IOI U YUUOUUUVUUUQIJOUU (..OQ.JQ VIJ PUUC, Ofr “I ““f.L iJ .I1iiJIQ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY mathematical models and research of mathematical models, which are only genetically connected with the object of forecasting; nowever, in the process of simplifying it turns out that they are quite unre— lated. The second point is the proposed method of using models to consider the gradualness of improving new technical means, wnich is of utmost importance in the power industry. Other aspects of developed models are no less important; however, the reader would be better off reading the materials themselves, especially since the author subsequently tries to conduct the reader through his logic in the these deve1opments thereby simplifying the process of u’iderstanding the material. The concluding section is devoted to th development of methods of optimizing in conditions of uncertainty. In developing these methods on a solid methodological basis the author seeks to obtain practical working methods, without losing accuracy in so doing. This task was largely met. The examples cited in the book confirm this. Thus, the reader h3s before him a book in which he can find not only a tool for making forecasts concerning the development of the nuclear power industry, but also a tool for determining the optimal strategies for the dve1opment and a tool for making a choice. Of course, one need not expect from this monography an answer to all questions; but it is a good example of a comprehensive, systematic research of a very important scientific and practical task. Lioreword written by Academician M.A. Styrikovich7 INTRODUCTION ;1] i .1.1 —TV U —— —J 1• AL1 — I.... .. • .. v. L,IiYiT.J 1i —1.1 .IZiWiYill4il —liYiYiV IIYITII.iiYi —. _______________________________ 1.;0] Everyone knows that energy is one of the most important factors in the development of man’s society. Supplies of energy in man’s en vironment are un1inited; however, only certain kinds of energy and oniy a small part of what is available can be put to practical use. At present organic fuel is mankind’s basic energy resource. For a long time to couie organic fuel. will be used for various purposes. In certain spheres of power consumption it would be difficult if not almost impossible to replace it. The general purpose motor vehicle is a good example of this. There are enormous supplies of organic fuel in the world, which, it would seem, can meet the needs for energy for hundreds of years to come. However, the question of meeting mankind’s need for energy is in reality quite a bit more complex. First, there are not so many inex’pensive resources of organic fuel, the extraction fo which is economically feasible. This limitation is especially acutely noted in regard to resources of petroleum and a— tural gas, which are the very form8 of fuel most preferred by the overwhelming majority of energy consumers and for the technical means for converting the forms of energy. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-o FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Secondly, the resources of organic fuel are distributed very unevenly throughout the world. Some nations of the world, for example Japan, have scarcely any at all. Power consumption in many other countries, particularly in the majority of West European nations, significantly exceed their own resources of organic fuel, which forces them to import oil, natural gas and coal. For example, in 1970 France imported nearly 67 percent of the energy that it needed; by 1977 imports increased to 74 percent. (116) And lastly, a relatively small number of the world’s nations are rich in organic fuel. The best example of this are the nations of the Persian Gulf. In and of itself the unevenness of the distribution of energy resources might not create any problems if the locations of consumption were not far from the places where the fuel is extracted. In reality things stand quite differently: the places whcre the fuel is consumed are most often far away from where the fuel is extracted. For this reason organic fuel in these cases must be transported to distances ranging from a few hundred to several thousand kilometers. The distance involved in transporting organic fuel affects its cost and consumer in different ways. The transport of oil and coal by sea is relatively inexpensive and the need to move it several thousand kilometers does not significantly increase its cost to the consumer when compared with the outlays for its extraction. On the other hand, the transport of natural gas and the shipping of cod by railroad is relatively expensive. A distance 01 several hundreds of kilometers is a serious economic barrier to transporting both coal and natural gas. The transmission of electric power over great distances is also rather expensive, therefore both natural gas anc coal that are located far from the seacoast, must be viewed as regional energy resources. This in turn orsens the problem of :upplying energy to those nations and regions of the world which do not have adequate supplies of energy of their own. Finally the key circumstance is the very fact of the dependence of the importers of organic fael upon the conditions of import. The escalation of prices for oil in recent years has rather convincingly demonstrated the undesirable prospect of such dependence for the economy of the importing nations. In this manner, in spite of the enormous world supplies of organic fuel, there are very sound reasons for coming up with other strategies for developing the power industry, which are based not on organic fuel but on other power resources. This can be the energy that is obtained by splitting the heavy nuclei of uranium, plutonium or thorium (nuclear energy), solar energy and synthetic thermonuclear energy. Of course, in any strategies that are being thought out, the switch in energy resources cannot be instantaneous. This is a long process, which may last for many decaces. The nations of the world will accomplish this in various way . In all likelihood, both the rates of this shift and the composition of the technical means used for adoption will vary. 6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED-’ Thursday, June 18, 2J: CIA-RDP82-( FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY In discussing strategies for switching the power industry from organic fuel to another resource base, we must not forget that organic fuel has not completely exhausted all of its options. First, many areas of the world have not been adequately surveyed for sources of fuel. It is likely that large deposits of oil, natural gas, and coal will be found. This is whac happened recently in Mexico. Secondly, regional organic resources can be made into products that can more easily be transported. For example, natural gas can be converted mtammonia or methanol and coal into synthetic oil. And lastly, it is possible to use nonconventional (i.e., not ordinarily used) organic resources in the power industry. This includes, for example, oil that has been separated from bituminous sands and shales. Tertiary methods of extracting organi fuel can be used; this can increase their extraction from the earth. Nearly all of these and other additional possibilities for “extending the life” of organic fuel are not presently being pursued. In addition, the largest deposits of inexpensive organic fuel are being discovered infrequently; it appears that there is a limited nunber of them on the earth. The production of synthetic oil, gas and coal, just as the assimilation of noncon— ventional organic fuels, is still relatively expensive. For this reason these additional resources of organic fuel cannot weaken our interest in examining the abovemettior!ed alternatives br the development of the power industry of the future. The 1960’s of the 20th century when significant progress was achieved in the field of building nuclear reactors, can be seen as the be— •ginning of the development of one of the most realistic alternatives — the nuclear power industry. The question is whether or not nuclear power is capable of filling the role of a practically unlimited resource base for the power industry. And this is not an easy questLon. There are various points of view on this matter. The problem is that the technology for utilizing the energy of fusion in nuclear reactors is dissimilar. The use of thermal neutrons in nuclear reactions makes it possible to use only to 1.5 percent of the natural uranium — the basic natural fuel resource of the nuclear power industry. The known supplies of inexpensive natural uranium in the world are not great. At present, according to data (39, 46) (not counting the CEMA nations and the Korean Peoples’ Republic) there are about 4 to 5 million tons of uranium. This is the equivalent of 50 to 70 billion tons of conventional fuel when using this amount of natural uranium in thermal reactors. Such an amount of energy of course, is not enough for nuclear power to play a global role in meeting the needs of mankind for energy There is, however, one other way to extract energy from uranium. This involves organizing the nuclear reaction using fast—neutrons. A fast— neutron reactor, or simply a fast reactor, can extract. from natural uranium 60 to 70 times more energy than can be obtaiaed from a thermal reactor. What is more, due to the low value of the fuel load the ;1] 11.1.1 YaT1 —i i—i —Vi1 . . . . . . . y.;0] 7 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400030054-O FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY fast reactor expands the fuel base of the nuclear power industry, by making it competitive with more costly resources of natural uranium. En this manner the use of fast reactors in principle is already making it possible to view the development of the nuclear power industry as a way to switch from limfted to unlimited sources of energy. There are also several other additional possibilities for solving this task within the framework of the nuclear power industry. This includes the use of thorium. La3tly, the development of the nuclear power industry to a certain extent determines the prospects of developing a synthetic thermonuclear power source. These considerations explain why over a rather long period of time the optimal strategy for the development of the power industry must be based upon the use of various sources of primary power rather than upon a single energy resource. However, all of this is in the future, which underscores the importance of a systematic study of the future of the power industry, in— eluding the nuclear power industry. Trie scieice of the future — forecasting — has been developing intensively in recent years. This development is supported not only by the practical urgency that we noted above, but also by a lively in— r.erest in the future per se. The number of published works describing various aspects of the future of the nuclear power industry is extremely large; but very few works which discuss the nuclear power industry as an integral system. There are even few works which describe the theory and methods for forecasting the development of the nuclear power industry. There has been nothing written in world literature that deals with this subject. The systematic approach is gradually finding its way into the methodology of forecasting. Usually, when they speak of the use of the systematic approach, they are thinking asout the need to examine an object of forecasting as a system. The methodology that is being developed in this manner for forecasting is becoming a continuation of the science concerning a given object. If it is a complex object, and the nuclear power iz— dustry is certainly a complex object, the appropriate methodology vf forecasting becomes complex. The syctematic approach in forecasting, which is restricted y the framework of just the object of forecasting, is inadequate. The problem is that if the object is complex, data for forecasting must be gotten from experts. Such data are of a subjective nature. For this reason the methodological examination must include the subject of forecasting and the forecasting process as the specific; interconnection of the subject and object in addition to the subject alone. 8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR REL i flursday, June 18, --,: .?000400080054-O FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The methodology that is appropriate to this interpretation of the systematic approach is called systematic forecasting by the author. This name underscores the difference between the forecasting of an object as a system that is most often used. On the other hand, he manages to avoid the very generalized designetions such as “systematic approach” and “systematic analysis” in designating a more specific methodology, which is developed below. This book provides no specific forecasts or predictions. It does not provide an answer to just how the nuclear power industry will develop in this or that nation. The book poses another task — to obtain an answer to the question of how one must forecast the development of the nuclear power industry. To answer this question means to create a tool for forecasting. The examples provided in the book must be seen primarily as an illustration of ho the proposed tool for forecasting works. Several results were obtained through the use of mathematical models. The problem of the conformity of the exogenous (input) data of any real system of nuclear power, which were obtained in the modeling procedure, is not discussed. For this reason the use of modeling results in a specific applied forecasting task exceeds the framework of the book. The book is divided into three sections. The first section is devoted to he theoretical—ipethodological analysis of the stated task. The first chapter examines the basic circuitry of the conception of systematic forecasting and provides a psychological analysis of forecasting activity. The second chapter deals with the analysis of the basic properties of the nuclear power industry as a system. This analysis has made it possible to formulate the basic requirements for a method of forecasting on the part of the object. The second section of the book develops the key components of a forecasting method — the mathematical models of a developing nulclear power industry. The drafting of two basic models is provided — AES Luc1ear electric power station! systems (chapter 3) and fuel supply systems (chapter 6). Examples of estimates on models of AES system are given in chapter 5. Chapter 4 examines questions having to do with the evolution and equipment for modeling an AFS system. The somewhat unusual location of material (a review of known models — chapter 4 — follows a description of the proposed model in chapter 3) is explained primarily by a desire to introduce the reader using a subsequent outline of an AES system model as a whole. Following this introduction the reader will find it easier to follow the progress in analyzing various approaches and methods of modeling. Another reason for this was a desire to shed light on several recent models, which are described in chapter 3, including that which was influenced by it. ;1] ii .1.1 —1l W —I 1• tA.l I ... .... ... v (.TIYIY. V —1i .tI.iYit14.1 —7iYiYiV IiYiYiT.IiYiI. i \;0] 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The third section of the book is devoted to the development of a method for considering the fundamental phenomenon, which which one has to deal in forecasting — uncertainty. Chapter 7 examines one narrower class of tasks — the selection of an optimal strategy when faced with uncertainty ir economic indicators of the work of a system. In chapter 8 there is a description of a common instance of an uncertain situation. Chapter 7 is illustrated with an example of using a model to make estimates. Of course, the list of methodological questions, which arise during fnrecasting, is considerably more extensively examined in the book. The author did not examine such important questions as the methods of forecasting the indicators of technical means; he restricts himself to just an examination of systematic tasks. Everything that is dictated directly by the properties of some specific system of the nuclear power industry due to the common methodological trend, also, of course, is not covered in the book. The book contains basically original developments of the author, which he devised personally, under his guidance or in which he participated; several of the materials in the book were published in journals previously by the author. The author is deeply indebted to A. D. Virtser, with whom the author developed mathematical models of an AES system and a fuel supply system and also methods for optimizing in conditions of uncertainty. The author sincerely thanks D. B. Bogoyavlenskaya, to whom the author is largely indebted for the interpretation of the psychological problems of forecasting, V. L. Lokshin for cooperation in developing a fuel supply system and Yu. S. Lezner for all the work in developing the computer programs. The author is very grateful to the responsible editor, Academician 11. A. Styrikovich, for his considerable assistance in the preparation of the book. TABLE OF CONTENTS ;1] -n -. iV 1 — f1 —T—i . •. . . L.,liVT.’m 1.I .I.L WiTit•1411 -7iVila1,.. ITil. .fiV _____________________________;0] Introduction Section 1 A Methodological Analysis of the Taak of Forecasting in the Nuclear Power Industry Chapter 1 oreLjca1_methodO1OgiCal bases of forecasting I. I Regarding the structure of the science of forecasting . . 1.2 l’orecasting as the interaction between the subject and object 1.3 The basic properties of the process of developing an object 1.4 The forecasting process and its psychological aspects 10 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 3 7 ‘3 14 14 21 28 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Chapter 2 The nuclear power industry as a system during forecasting 2. Structure of the task of forecasting in the nuclear power industry . . . 2.2 The structure of the system Section II. Mathematical Models of a Developing Nuclear Power Industry . . . ;1] Al•I .1 iV1R —. —] — — —, ii .- .-.-.-,-- L•7YT.w w. —1.1 .1.ZU’Yt141 —iTTy hyT1.7y - —. _________________________________;0] Chapter 3 I)evelopment of a mathemetical model of a fuel suppy system 3.1 Modeling diagram of a fuel supply system 3.2 Various ways of imitating the use of an AES in an electric power system 3.3 Consideration of the dynamics of the use of an AES in an electric power system 3.4 Fuel balances in a ;ystenl 3.5 Economic indicatirs of the work of a fu€1 supply system 3.6 Composition of a mathematical model for researching the alternatives in developing an AES system 3.7 ILni.tating in a model the subsequent development of new technical means Chapter 4 The evolution of ideas and equipment in the mathematical modeling of fuel supply system for the nuclear power industry 4.1 Methods of imitating the maximum economy of natural uranium in fuel supply systemmodels . 4.2 Methods of modeling imitation of the development in accordance with the criterion of minimal cash outlays Chapter 5 An example of the research of various alternatives in the development of an AES system using a mathematical model 5 • I Accepted conditions for developinezit 5.2 Analysis of results obtained Chapter 6 Development of a model of a fuel supply system for the nuclear power industry 6.1 Allocation and analysis of basic factors for consideration in a model 6.2 Modeling diagram of a fuel supply system 6.3 Description of the processes for refining fuel in a fuel supply system 6.4 Criteria of efficiency of the development of a fuel supply system 6.5 The method of seeking optimal structures for a fuel supply system 6.6 The role of the developed model among other models for the forecasting of a fuel supply system 11 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 46 46 48 56 56 57 62 73 79 87 102 103 108 110 1 24 133 133 135 148 149 150 154 159 161 166 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 Section III. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The Forecasting and Selection of an Optimal Strategy for the Development of the Nuclear Power Industry inConditionsof Uncertainty Chapter 7 Considering uncertainty in economic indicators 7.1 Method of selecting an optimal strategy for development when there is uncertainty in the economic indicators 7.2 Example of estimating using amodel Chapter 8 Considering the uncertainty of future conditions of development in a generalized instance . . . . . . . •• • . . •.......... . .. 169 174 178 198 214 Conclusion . . . . •1 •••• . . . .. . . ... .. . . . . . .. 229 References . •.. •1 ••.•e.• .. •..•.... . 231 COPYRIGHT: Izdatel’stvo “Nauka”, 1980 8927 CSO: 1822/18 ;1] Al • I • I fiVJ -1 .JI• fi1 . I .. r.. . . . .,;0] 12 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 ELECTRIC POWER PaR OPVICIAL USE ONLY UDC 621.187.12:628.16:658.3—05 NEW BOOK DESCRIBES OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF WATER-TREATMENT FACILITIES Moscow OPERATOR VODOPODGOTOVKI in Russian 1981 (signed to press 3 Feb 81) pp 1—5, 301—304 [Annotation, foreword and table of contents from book “Water Treatment Operator”, by Semen Markovich Gurvich and Yuriy Maksimovich Kostrikln, Izdatel’stvo “Energoizdat”, 30,000 copies, 304 pagesl [Text] This book presents the sum total of information needed by duty personnel of water—treatment facilities at electric—power stations and at industrial and central—heating boiler plants. It describes the properties of water and the methods f or processing it in water—treatment facilities. The book describes in detail those operations which the duty personnel carry out in conducting analyses and in controlling the water—treatment equipment. The first edition of the book was published in 1974. The second edition was revised based on the readers’ wishes. This book is a practical aid for laboratory workers and shift personnel at power stations and boiler plants, as well as for heat engineers, mechanics, etc. Foreword ;1] IV7 -ri — -] -I A.I I1j1jT.Wa 1A -] .1 •TMi T’I .,‘T iTi • —.;0] The necessity for publishing the first edition o1 the book “Water Treatment Operator” was motivated by the fact that, in the first place, domestic literature on water treatment had not touched upon questions concerning the activity of the on— duty operational personnel in water—treatment installations at electric—power stations and In the power—production industry; in the second place, the duty staff in water—treatment installations at electric—power stations is basically comprised of persons who have obtained the bulk of their education in high school and who have some vocational and technical training. This does not provide them with the entire sum of knowledge that these personnel need; thirdly, a sizeable contingent of persons operating water—treatment installations in Industrial boiler plants frequently do not have special training in water technology. Very often the operation of such installations at small industrial enterprises is accomplished by machinists, stokers, etc., doing double—duty. While writing the manuscript for the first edition of “Water Treatment Operator,” the authors began with the following considerations. 1. It was necessary to give the book’s readers a brief but sufficiently complete idea about the modern state of water—treatment technology here and abroad. Addi— 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 P0k OFFICIAL IJSF ONLV ;1] Al 1 .1 —IiN —I — — -F — -, — TV .. I]ir&r. Vi -j .1 •F YiTif1 ]iTi1i’, hY&I. hi’áTi’1v —‘;0] tionaily, taking into consideration the basic contingent of this book’s readers, it was necessary to keep the book’s style as understandable as possib1e which, moreover, would facilitate its utilization by individuals in other professions (heat engineers, mechanics, etc.) for general familiarization with the basics of water—treatment. 2. Considering the content of the vocational and technical—training programs which the operational personnel at water-treatment facilities undergo and the availability of standardized service instructions and reference rateria1s regarding questions of water-treatment, the authors have kept the presentation of these problems to a minimum in this book. In particular, with respect to these considerations, the authors felt it possible when describing equipment at water—treatment installations as well as various laboratory instruments and devices to limit themselves to the basic layouts of these devices, which would be sufficient to understand their technological essence. 3. In addition to fulfilling the current duties entrusted to him by prevailing instructions, the water—treatment operator must, on the basis of daily observation and a study of the equipment’s operation and the technological processes occurring within it, have the possibility of introducing innovative suggestions with regard to improving the operational efficiency of the equipment and the installation on the whole. These suggestions contribute to the conservation of reagents and water expended for internal water-treatment facility needs and to a reduction in the cost of the processed water. Therefore, this book devotes particular attention to an examination of the eisence of the physicochemical processes taking place in the water—treatment installation’s equipment. This should assist the operational personnel in their work in improving the effectiveness and the efficie1lcy of the equipment they service. To what degree the content of the first edition of “Water Treatment Op9rator” insured the satisfactory fulfillment of the above—stated considerations rne can judge by the positive responses from individual readers (as well as from sevt.ral district power—station chemical services) which the publisher and the authors have received. Moreover, regardless of these responses, one must admit that the first edition of the popular handbook for operational personnel at water—treatment facilities needs further improvetnent. The book required considerable revision and additions, since water-treatment technology in the large and small—scale power industries had advanced significantly in the period since the publication of the first edition. One must also take into consideration the appearance each year of new personnel who require such a handbook. Thus, all the stated considerations present a convincing case for the expediency of republishing “Water Treatment Operator.” The most substantial major changes and additions introduced into the second edition of this book ean be reduced to the following. New, efficient production processes for water treatment and new equipment which have appeared in recent years are examined. Special water—treatment conditions and water regimes for steam generators at atomic electric—power stations are covered. The status of questions regarding the application of the so—called oxygen regime for boilers is examined. Detailed questions concerning the niechaniation of water— treatment facilities and the value of continous water—treatment production processes are stated. An analysis is given of the application of the prevailing drinking 1L FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054..O TI I..... .10 ‘flflt. #‘I A rFO’ I’ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY and boiler—water standards by operations pe:sonnel at electric—power stations. In addition to general questions and the technology involved In disposing of electric—power station discharges, the book examines methods of switching to closed systems operating with full utilization of all or at least most of the wastes. Certain chapters concerning the scope of operational physicocheinical control over water and steam and touching upon information relating to basic methods of quancitative analysis and upon the operations executed in conducting this analysis have been revised and abridged. The authors ask that all conmients and suggestiona regarding the second edition be sent to: 113114, Moscow, M—114, Shlyuzovaya naberezhnaya, 10, Energoizdat. Contents Page Foreword Cbapter 1. Bases for the Physicochemical Characteristics of Water and Aqueous Solutions 1.1. Some information from physics and chemistry 1.2. Structure of molecules 1.3. Aqueous solutions; electrolytes; dissociation 1.4. Measuring the concentration of solutions Chapter 2. Electric—Power Stations 2.1. Classification of electric—power stations 2.2. Pure condensing electric—power stations (KES) and their basic equipment 2.3. Neat—and—electric generating plants (TES) providing electric power, heatandsteam 2.4. Heat—and—electrIc generating plants providing electric power, heat and drinkingwater 2.5. Atomic power stations (AES) 3. Water in Industry Water utilization in industry Water utilization in heat—and-power engineering . Chapter 4. Water Purification 4.1. Coarse—dispersion and colloidal impurities in natural waters Chapter 5.1. 5.2. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5. Water treatment with coagulating agents Improving the efficiency of water purification Purification apparatus Water Filtration 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 74 74 74 77 80 81 3 6 6 20 24 28 32 32 35 40 43 45 Chapter 3.1. 3.2. 42. 4.3. 4.4. 4.5. 48 • . 48 • . . 51 • . . 53 • . . 53 • . . 55 • . 59 • . . 61 • . 64 5. Water Softening Meaning of water hardness. . Methods of precipitation Apparatus for softening water by the precipitation method Liming of water Water softening by catlonization APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 FOR OFFICIAL IJSF ONLY Chapter 6. Water Desalinization 6.1. Methods of water desal,-tnizat.on 6.2. Ion-exchange water desalinization 6.3. Filters for ion—exchange water desalinizatIon 6.4. Ion—exchange water desalinization installations and their operational characteristics 6.5. Thermal water desalinization 6.6. Electrodialysis method of water desalinization Chapter 7. Water Deaeration 7.1. Generalaspects 7.2. Thermal methods of eliminating dissolved oxygen 7.3. Chemical methods of eliminating dissolved oxygen Chapter 8. Mechanization and Automation of Water—Treatment Installations 8.1. General aspects 8.2. Mechanization and automation of reagent—storage facilities. 8.3. Automation of filters 8.4. Continuous—operation ionite filters Chapter 9. Boiler Water Regime 9.1. General aspects 9.2. Distribution of feed—water impurities in direct—flow boilers 9.3. Distribution of feed—water impurities in barrel—type boilers 9.4. Scale-formation processes in boilers 9.5. Steam—quality requirements Chapter 10. Heat—and-Electric Power Station Waste Water and Techniques for ItsDegreasing 10.1. General characteristics of heat—and—electric power station wastes 10.2. Warmwater 10.3. Hydraulic ash—removal water 10.4. Washingwater 10.5. Oil—fouledwater 10.6. Chemical—purification water 10.7. Treated solutions from wash—off and corrosion—proofing of thermal— powerequipment Chapter 11. Operations Carried Out During Control of Water—Chemical Regimes and the Operation of Water-Treatment Equipment 11.1. Selecting tests for analysis 11.2. Weighted method 11.3. Volumetricmethod 11.4. Calorimetric method 11.5. Flame—photometric method 11.6. Technique of certain operations Chapter 12. Methods for Determining Basic Water—Quality Indicators During Operational Control of Water—Treatment and the Water—Chemical Regime 12.1. Basic information 12.2. State of dissolved substances 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY • 112 • 112 113 115 117 • 121 • 124 • 125 • 125 • 130 134 • 137 137 • 140 • 144 • 151 • 153 • 153 • 158 166 171 • 176 179 179 181 185 189 191 193 195 ;1] Ai .1.1 Ya’i —‘ . —F&- —J —I — —g.i —7vrr, ...._ . .. . L,7iYaT.W Vi 1.1 .IL,iYitJ-(ii laYiTiV Fili TT _____________________________;0] 198 198 201 205 208 218 219 230 230 233 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-O FOR ornCaAL USE ONLV 12.3. Scope of operational chemical control of steam and water 12.4. Determining water hardness . . . . . . . 12.5. Determining water alkalinity. . . . . . . 12.6. Determining hydrogen-ion concentration in water 12.7. DeterminIng carbon dioxide concentration in water. 12.8. Determining phosphate concentration in water . 12.9. Determining iron concentration in water . 12.10. Determining silica concentration In witer Appendices • . . . 239 • . . . 242 • . . . 253 . . . . . . 292 COPYRIGHT: Izdatel ‘ stvo “Energoizdat”, 1981 9512 CSO: 1822/26 ;1] 1 1 YWJ I — —— 1 I — W...1 -- -. 1 1 I.Z. .V.T.I .J.1 —Y.T.V.W F.V.V.T1;0] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY 257 259 271 282 288 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-OuobuR000400080054-O ELECTRIC POWER FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ;1] A •I•I 11 • — AJ .i.-.. r Ki7iYiY. -J IZ.W.Y.T.14.1 -I.T.T. TTy. —. ______________________________;0] WAYS OF IMPROVING FUEL CONSUMPTION AT POWER MACHINEBUILDING PLANTS Moscow PROMYSHLENNAYA ENERGETIKA in Russian No 9,Sep 81 pp 2—4 /rticle by Yu. A. Yefimov, deputy minister of power machinebuilding, and A. A. Barabaskin, chief of the administration of the chief mechanic and Chief power engineer of the USSR Ministry of Power Machine— building: “Ways of Increasing the Efficiency of the Use of Fuel and Power Resources at Ent.arprises of the USSR Ministry of Power Machine— building in the 11th Five—Year Plan”/ LTex./ In the 10th Five—Year Plan 42,000 tons of conventional fuel, nearly 200 million kilowatt—hours of electricity and 325,000 Gcal of thermal energy were conserved at enterprises of the USSR Ministry of Power Machinebuilding. This was done by reducing the relative norms for the expenditure of fuel and energy resources (TER) for the production of basic product. These savings were accomplished through organizational—technical measures taken by the enterprises. These measures included: the modernization and replacement of outdated equipment, the elimination of small heating boilers, the switching of boi.lders to the combustion of natural gas and fuel oil, the adoption of operating schedules for boilers, heating furnaces and thermal furnaces, the carrying out of thermotechnical and electrotechnical tests of equipment that consumes large amount of energy. All of these measures were taken to establish the optimal expenditures of TER and others. A great deal of attention has been devoted to the use of secondary power resources. Their use increased by 22 percent during the five— year plan, amounting to 394,000 Gcal in 1980, or 8.3 percent of the annual comsumption of thermal energy for production needs. For the years 1981—1985 the ministry is to reduce fuel expenditure norms by 4.5 percent, electric power by 12 percent, and thermal energy by 7 percent. The ministry and enterprises have prepared organizational—technical neasures aimed at fulfilling their assignments for conserving TER. In the 11th Five—Year Plan work will be continued in improving the existing and iniroducing new, less power—consuming technological processes (at present naarly 40 percnt of the normative fuel. consumption, 70 percent of the electric ower and 20 percent of thermal 18 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY energy are expended for technological needs), the further development of comprehensive mechanization and automation of production processes, the adoption in the milling production work of technological processes which provide a significant improvement in the quality and an increase in the precision of sizes of the billets that are obtained. In the mechanical processing work, where 35 percent of all electric power is consiitned, there is an aaticipateci 2—fold increase in the productivity of all kinds of machine tools (lathes, milling tools, drills and boring tools, polishing tools, and others) and a 2.5— to 3—fold reduction in the labor intensiveness of mechanical processing. These indicators will be achieved through an improvement in the structure of the metal cutting machine tool park and the designs of machine tools, increasIng the precision of obtaining billets (forged pieces, stampings, and castings), arid th intensification of cutting modes. Within the structure of the metal cutting machine tool park there will. be a 5 to 16 percent increase in the nutuber of high—productive specialized equipment. This will be done chiefly by increasing the number of computer nurue’ically controlled (CNC) machine tools, including the machine tool.s of the “processing center” type, the use of which will lead to a 1.5 to 5—fold increase in labor productivity. The end result of optimizing the cutting modes will be a reduction in the expenditure of electric power per product unit. In forging production work the existing processes will be improved and new technological processes for forming, aimed primarily at reducing the manufacturing cycle of a form and casting, will be developed. Molding and core blends and coatings will be standardized. It is proposed to provide the small—series and individual production using four to six varieties of blends and one to two varieties of paints. By the end of the five—year plan nearly 80 percent of castings will be produced using new quick—setting blends, which will make it possible to save the fuel that is expended in drying furnaces to dry the sandy— argillaceous blends commonly used now (the amount of fuel consumed in the drying process accounts for 20 to 25 percent of the consumption for the smelting of metal). tmproving the smelting processes includes replacing the cupola smelting of pig iron with electroinductive smelting, which will result in a savings in the use of coke. In the open hearth production work a substantial savings of fuel is expected as a result of reptacing some open hearth furnaces with electric arc furnaces (the Production Association “Izhorskiy Zavod” imeni A. A. Zhdanov is projected to carry out such a replacemeni). In the forge and press and thermal production facilities existing equipment is to be modernized and new1 highly productive equipment is to be adopted. The technological processes of forging, stamping, thermal processing in Grder to obtain precision in the billets obtained and the conserving of materials and energy resources are to be improved. In addition it is planned to adopt highly—productive forging ;1] .1 .1 —IIy —I —(1 -— - —. — . -. . . .,.. tV .. — .I..,WjyiT7,r -]iTi1i IiTiTatTjTjJ ;0] 19 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054..O FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY and press manipulator units, equipped with high—speed manipulators with automated control of their work. Such machine units are being created at the Production Association “Izhorskiy zevod” imeni A. A. Zhdanov and at the Kramatorsk Plant “Energomashspetsstal” /special steel for power machinebuildinj7. The productivity of the forging in the automated units is 1.8 to 22—fold greater than in free forging. The quality of the forged pieces is significantly higher. And there are few margins in size, which results in a savings of metal and electricity during the mechanical processing of the forged pieces. In forge and press and thermal production work large amount of fuel is expended on heating the metal in the heating and thermal furnaces. The basic trends in raising the efficiency of using fuel in these furnaces are: improving the designs, equipping with recovery units (using exhaust gases to heat t.he air entering the combustion chamber) and automatic temperature control systems and systems for maintaining the optimal correlation between gas and air, equipping with more efficient burners (for example, when using GTPS burners in place of TNP burners there is an approximate 5 to 8 percent reduction in fuel expenditure; such burners are used in several thermal furnaces at the ProducLion Association “Izhorskiy zavod”). An effective method of reducing the relative expenditures of fuel in thermal and heating furnaces is to reduce losses of heat through the safety structures by using highly—efficient thermal insulating materials (in place of the traditionally used firebrick) for the lining of furnaces, for example the fibriform refractory slabs, which were developed by the VNlPlteploproyekt LAI1—Union Scientific Research and Designing Institute of Thermal Equipment7. Tests of new designs of linings at the Production Association “Izhor— skiy zavod” have shown that when using the fibriform slabs there is a reduction in heat losses and fuel and electric power consumption of 15 to 20 percent. There is an 8 to 10—fold reduction in the weight of the linings and a 2 to 3—fold reduction in labor expenditures for constructing and repairing linings; the productivity of the furnaces rises and there is a tO to 15 percent reduction in the thermal processing cycle. In accordance with the plan that the ministry devised in the 11th Five—Year Plan the modernization of existing and the construction of new thermal and heating furnaces using fibriform refractory materials will be continued. This will provide an opportunity to significantly reduce the expenditure of fuel and electric power during heating and the thermal processing of manufactured articles (in the production associations “Izhorskiy zavod”, “Atommash”, “Khar’kov turbine plant” imeni S. M. Kirov, and at the Kramatorsk Plant “Energomashspetsstal’”). The enterprises of the USSR Ministry of Power Machinebuilding have their own power generating plants, industrial boilers, a TETs, compressor, pump and oxygen facilities. These planrs consume a significant amount of primary energy resources (the boiler facilities and 20 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR REL....-. hursday, June 18, -— .85OROOO4OO,. FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TETs for example, consume nearly 60 percent of the total normative expenditure of fuel and the compressor facilities consume nearly 18 percent of the electricity expenditure). For this reason a great deal of attention will be devoted to the rational use of fuel and energy at these plants and to improving their operation. The trends for increasing the efficiency of the use of TER in the power generating converter and transmission plants and the pipelines along with replacing outdated equipment and networks with new ones include: modernization and rebuilding in order to increase efficiency and re— 1iabi1ity reducing to a minimum the losses of the produced power carriers, and optimizing their use. The planned modernization of the enterprises’ boiler equipment includes equipping the boilers with automated combustion, automated gas analyzers for monitoring the quality of combustion of fuel and more improved designs cf economizers and blast heaters, replacing burners iith new progressive designs and replacing the convec...ion heat surfaces of the boilers with membrane surfaces. Wear—resistant coatings will be applied to the heating surfaces of the pipes of the boiler units (this includes gas—powder smelting) in order to increase their service 1ife to cut repair costs and to decrease losses of TER, caused by emergency shutdowns of the boilers. During the last five—year plan in several boiler facilities the PTVM— 50 boilers were modernized: the nozzles were replaced, the heating surfaces were rebuilt, additional two—light screens were installed, and automated burner devices and gas analyzers were installed. In addition, operating mode measures were undertaken. As a result the productivity of the boilers was increased by 10 percent and efficiency reached 89 percent. Similar work will be done during the 11th Five—Year Plan. A substantial savings in electricity will be obtained through the modernization of the compressor plants and the rebuilding of the air pipes. The compressor plants will be equipped with units that regulate productivity and with devices for drying and heating compressed air. The replacement of tic circular valves of the piston compressors with direct—flow valves will be continued. This will make it possible to reduce the 1osse •of cornpreased air and this in turn will result in a reduction in the expenditure of electricity. Replacing the machine energizers of the compressor engines with thyristor converters will ensure a reduction in the expenditure of electricity by one cubic meter Of compressed air. An extensive program is planned in organizing and improving the accounting and monitoring of the expenditure of TER. The accounting and monitoring is to be done on an individual shop basis, including machine units that consume large amount of energy. At several of the large enterprises of the power machinebuilding sector in the 11th Five—Year Plan it is planned to put into operation automated inforina— Cion—measuring systems for keeping track of and monitoring electric power. ;1] Al •I•I -ITJ —I ——i—i• AL1 —7rrr7 TI . .. IT&TiT.á A —] 1 .IiYi114i1 IiTaTi uTah IiTaT —i;0] 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY The automation of the regulation of the parameters of the heat carriers in the thermal networks is to provide considerable savings of thermal energy. Toward this end the Ministry of Power Machinebuildirig and the Ministry of the Electronics Industry have jointly developed a plan to cooperate in the production of electronic heating regulators. Tests of an experimental model of a regulator, which was installed in 1980 in the administrative building of the Production Association “Nevskiy zavod” inieni V. I. Lenin demonstrated that when the temperature of the feed water is automatically lowered at night in the sector that is equipped with an automatiz regulator, the savings of thermal energy amounts to 25 to 30 percnt. One of the trends in conserving thermal energy at en:erprises of the power machinebuilding sector is to reduce heat lcsses of buildings. For these purposes the plans that are being drawn up call for rational space—planning and design solutions: the maximum obstruction of industrial buildings, reducing the perimeter of externri walls and the amount of glass, improving the insulation of ti’e enc1oing designs of the buildings, and adopting more rational heating systems. Such measures are to be accomplished during the capital repair work on existing industrial, buildings. In order to use the low—potential heat of the vented discharges at several enterprises of the power machinebuilding sector they are manufacturing experimental models of revolving regenerative heat exchangers. Several organizational measures aimed at increasing the savings and the efficient use o TER are to be taken. Toward these goals at each enterprise of the power machinebuilding sector they have created permanent operating commissions, which are made up of designers, production engineers, metallurgists, material—technical supply workers, and representatives from public organizations, as well as power engineers. The job of these commissions is to: look for ways to conserve fuel, thermal and electric power, to monitor their expenditure, to adop’... measures for their conservation, and to undertake an extensive ed.cation program among the collectives of the enterprises. These tasks can be successfully solved only with the constant work in this direction of the entire collective of each enterprise. COPYRIGHT: Energoizdat, “Promyshlennaya energetika”, 1981 ;1] i .1—1 —Yij —‘ —fi’I— —i—i — —g.i —7vrry ._ . .. . Vj i .i’.y&rii —ivvy —. _______________________________;0] 8927 CSO: 1822/28 END 22 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: Thursday, June 18, 2009: CIA-RDP82-00850R000400080054-0