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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R004500040022-8 FOR OFFICIAL, USE ONLY JPR~ L/ 10376 _ 9 Marci~ 1982 ~a an Re ort p p CFOUO 16/82) FBIS FOREIG~I BROADCAST INFORi1/IATION SERVICE ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R004500040022-8 NO`TE JPRS publications contain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from ne~as agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from forei;~n-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets - are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] or [Excerpt~ in the first line of each item, or �ollowing the last line of a brief, indicate how the original information was processed. ;~lhere no processing indicator is given, the infor- mation was summarized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered pho~netically or transliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names preceded by a ques- tion mark 41d enclosed in parentheses were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in context. Other unattributed parenthetical no*es within the body of an item originate with the source. Times within items are as given by source. The contents of this publication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or attitudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGULATIONS GOVERNING OWNERSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISSEMINATION ~ OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFICIAL USE O~ILY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500040022-8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONI.Y - JPRS L/10376 9 March 1982 JAPAN REPORT + (FOUO 16/82) CONTENTS _ POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL Gaps Between Opposition Parties Continue To Widen (Ter~~ Tsutsumi; THE J~'~PAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 16 Feb 82)....... 1 ihzset:tled Political Situation Continues (Kenji Kitahara; THE DAILY YOMI~RI, 12 Feb 82).............,... 2 'YOrfIURI' Previews LDP Presidential Election (Y~~MIURI SHIMBUN, 3-9 Dec 82, NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 17 Jan 82) 3 Far_ tions Fo rm ~ ~ No Vice Presider,c of LDP Anxiety Expressed Over JSP's New Executive Panel (Takehiko Takahashi; MAINI QiI DAILY NEWS, 17 Feb 82).......... 19 Public Support of Defense Revisions Required (Editorial; MAINIQ-II DAILY NEWS, 17 Feb 82) 21 ECONOMIC Trading Firms' Expectations Are High on South~ast Asia (Jun Kusaka; JAPAN ECONOMCC JOURNAL, 16 Feb 82) 24 Opening Market to Foreign Trade I7iscussed (YOriIURI SHIMBU~t, various dates) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Japan, U.S. Trade Friction Increases Over Imports (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 1 Feb 82) 36 Council Recommends Procedures on Improving Import Inspection (Editorial; JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 9 Feb 82) 42 - a - [III - ASIA - 111 FOUO] F'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02109: CIA-RDP82-00854R000500040022-8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY High U.S. Imnort Tar.~Fi un Small Trucks Hit (YOrffURI SHIl~II3UN, 3 Feb 82) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Isuzu To Supply S:nall Passenger Cars to GM (Masaaki Sato; JAPAN ECONOMIC JOUR~i1AL, 9 Feb 82) . . < < . . . . . . . Forecast for Small Car Battle: Term (NIHON KEIZAI SH.IMBUN, 4 Feb 82) 49 Liberalized Naphtha Imports Run Into Difficulty (NIKKAN KOGYO S}IIMBWi , 24 Jam, 4 Feb 82) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Taxes Hi t Reac tion Agains t Ikmand Concern Over Stagnation in Business Taik~ With USSR; Sanctions (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBIIN, 21 Jan $2) 58 USSR Requests bank I,~an Extension (NIHON ICEIZAI SHIMBUN, 4 Feb 8"?) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GO S C I EN CE ~'V D TE (~iN O LO GY U.S., Japan Nuclear Agreement Discussed (NIHON KEI'LAI SHIME3UN, 8 Feb 82) 62 Canada E:tpected To Ease Nuclear Fuel Suppl ' (YOMIUI2I SHI~UN, 6 Feb 82) 65 Development of Sea Bottom Resources Criticized (NII~ON KI.IZAI SHIMBUN, 3 Feb 82) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Lag Deplored Protest To Be Lodged Construction oF New-7~pe C~nverter Reactor Pushed (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBIIN, 22 Jan 82) 71 Hitachi Eyes Second Flant in America To Produce VLSI's (JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 16 Feb 82) 73 MHI, Westinghouse To Cooperate in fieactor Technology (JAPt1N ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 9 Feb 82) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Practical Type 1.5 Micron Semiconductor Laser Produced (JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 9 Feb 82)..........~ 75 - Rapid Jump in 'Non-Weapon Certificates' Noted (NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN, 30 Jan 82) 76 - b - I'OR OP'FICIAL US~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500040022-8 FnR O~FICI:~1. USF; ON1.Y _ Problems of Small Information Procesaing Enterprisea Noted (Koichi K,~bayashi; SHUKAN TOYO KEIZAI, 9 Sep 81) 78 _ Industrial Plant Exports Rapidly Increasing - (Kaizo Suzuki; JAPAN ECONOMIC JOU?2NAL, 16 Feb 82) . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Highly Efficient Photoelectronic Switch Developed (JAPAN ECONOhffC JOURNAL, 16 Feb 82) 86 1,000-Hour Operation of MHD Generator Reaearch To Continue (JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 9 Feb 82) 87 B rie fs Senomotor for Rvbot gg Uranium Enrichment Consortium Studic~d - c - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02109: CIA-RDP82-00854R000500040022-8 FUR nFFi('tAl. l'~F: n\1.1 PULITICAL ANll SOGIOLOGICAL GAPS BETWEEN OPPOSITION PARTIES CONTINUE TO WIDEN Tokyo THE JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL in English 16 Feb 82 p 10 [Article by Teruo Tsutsumi: "Gap Grows Among Opposition Parties"] [Z~~t~ The debut ot the ,Japan's S~xialist Yarty's ~~�r~~~~i lin{, t~u~t; uEi ,iil Ilu� il~i~n~~~li~~n new leadership headed by Chairman Ichio I'~~~ i~ iln� .I.~~~.~n ~'~~,,,,n~;~~~ i Asukata i who ~~~on his third tenn tow~ard the E'arty to the Democratic Socialist Yarty, the end of last ~�ear~ seems to have further :~e~ti Litxral Club and the Social Uemocratic ~�idened the ine~�itable gaps among Opposi- F'e~~icratinn hon parties. Fearing that the new Socialist Icadership The tia~ialists h~~ld a three-day annu~l con ill clanKeruusly swer~~e to the left, iio��ever, ~�en~ion (rc~rn Fc~l~ruarv ~ and selected ne~+~ Komeitu infarmed the S~xialists that it would leaders to w~ork under ('hairman Asukata. As ~~freeze" the regular Ui�t policy consultation ~~z~~cled, a senous ruckus developed over meetin~s w�hich it had held with the the choice of the party's secretary-generaL Socialists. Komeito's action deall a serious Leftists and middle-of-the�roaders who blow to the joint struggle structure of the supported Asukata in last year's chair- Up~sition parties in the Diet designed to manship ele~ction called for the selection o! effechvely cope with the rulin~; Liberal tioboru Baba, a 56-year-old virtual ne~v face UE:mcxratic Party. in party affairs. Right-wing menitxr~ put up At present, the Op~sition parties .;ontrot strong resistance to the choice on the only 21'l seats in the House of Representative following three ma~or reasons: I~'I'he new as compared to the 287 seats controlled by leadership should be of the kind which will the Liberal Democratic Party. The debut oC ~ti~ork for the complete solidarit~~ of the party; the Soc~ialist Party's new leadership 'L~ tirlectiun u( 13aba will mran mono~~iliza- threatens to divide the Oppcuition camp, tion of the part}�'s leadership by the pro-Asu- already in an underdog position vis-a-vis the k:ila groups as Masashi Ishitkishi has rulin~; p�~rty, into two separate groups the alre~;~d~� bi~en rhosen fur vice presidency: 3~ ('ornmunist-ti~xialist group havin6 133 Lnwer {iahci is n~it an idi;il rhoice for lhe party's H~~usc~ seats and the middle-of-the-ruaders - ~~~crrl:iry ~;~~n~~r;~l~h~p. th~~ vi~r~'synibul of lhc~ ha~~tn~; 74?scats. _ P~~~'~! As the Litx~ral Ucm~icratic Party enjoys a 'fh~~ inl~~rrn~c�in~~ tu~; ~~r ~+~ar betwecn th~~ cl~~ar ma~~~nty in the tiouse of ftepres~~nta~ ~~rv~-~1suk:ila ~;ruups ancl thcir opponcnls tivcs, it is in a Ex~sitiun, at Ic.+st theorclically, ri~mauicil un,~~l~~~~d ~~~~c~n by E'ebruary G, the to f~~rmulale whate~ver Ie~;islatiuns it lik~~s In I,isl ~ia}� u( thc~ ann~icil amc~~ntion. and the practic~. ho~.�ever, the rulin~ party does not r~kht Hin~;crs rf~fus~~cl tc~ send any of thcir usu,illy risk courUng thc ~;rncral puhlic's m~~n~fxrrs to th~~ nc~c Ieacl~~rship. 'I'he ne~ti~ an~;~~r by railruading Ie~;isl:iliuns stron~;ly ~1~uk;ita I~~a~i~�rship, thrr~~f~~rc, comprities ~>E~EN,s~~e ass~aciate Tatsuo Ozawa, former minister of welfare, boldly said in nublic. With a of lUd people from both t~ie Uppee and Lower Houses, "Tanaka's - Corps" has continued to grcw 1;'ce : i~� creature a hugh force. With strength in number~ a~ a hacM1yro~ind, with Susumu Nikaido as secretary qeneral, Noboru Takesizita as d~puLy secr~`ary qeneral, Gen Tamura as chairman of the Diet Committee and 'Ioshio Ilaya~hi as director of the Finance and Accounting Bureau, and even holding a firm grip on the nucleus of tl~e LDP--"they are all there for the sake of Tanaka," accordinc to a ieader oi the Suzuki faction. One night t~~:: clo:sir~, c'.-,v~ o[ th:~ cunin~t reshuff].e wi:ich was set for 30 N~~vember last year, ~Yikaidc, .��i.etly gact;ercd tne trustworthy "loyal retainers," f.orn~er Justice Minisc~r Ytii~:hi Gur, Takesnita, Ozawa and former Minister of Home Affair.s Masaharu Goto~o, at a downtown restaurant. Ni_kaido's selection as secretary had r~lready been confirmnd at that i:ime. Trusted Fr.iends Promi~~e Unity "Next Irar wi.ll be crucial for us, witn the Lockheed verdict und the presidential election. ~nle must see ta it that the Tanaka ~action and the party are not - rattled. I will do rr.y best ~nd I ask for your cooperatiun." Nikaido spoke i_n behalf of 7'anaka, and t~is request for the invaluable cooperation of the trust~~~ `ri~_nus was made to strengthen the Tanaka faction. Tanaka also agreed that "unity within ~hc L-action is oF paramount importance." Tanaka and Nikaido were b~~sily occupied strsightening out differences that had arisen as a 6 {~OR OI~FIC'iA1. L)til~: O,~I,Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500044422-8 i~UR OF'N1('I.~l. t'~F: O11.1' co~sequence of the cabinet reshuffle, such as when dissension arose between the iounyer members or the facti.on and tne group including Shin Kanemaru, former dir~ctor general of the Defense Agency who is related to Takeshita, on the cabinet enLry of hlinister of Transportation Tokusaburo Kosaka. Tanaka shook hands with Kanemaru when the latter visited the htejiro residence on 20 December with a humble bow: "Mr Kanemaru, I fully understand your feelings. I admir~~ you for holding your temper in silence." On one hand, at the year-end party of the secretary club of the Tanaka �action held cn 10 Dece;nber, Nikaido lauded Takeshita with such remarks aa: "Unlike a dummy like Te, Mr Takeshita is one who fvlly compr~hends the subtleties of affairs" and "~lr Takeshita is the de facto secretary general and I am nis deputy." In reality the bulk of party problems are assigned to Takeshita. Eseyin With a Two-Pronged Operation :'~ccording to an explanation by a leader of the Tanaka faction: "'~he long-range st:ruteqy of Mr Tanaka was concealed in the plan for the appointment of Secretary General Nikaido and Deputy Secretary General Takeshita. Suzuki accepted t:~e plar." "If 'tt~e f.irst trial verdict in the Lockheed case is 'not guilty,' that's fine. In L-he case of 'guilty,' the party will be confronted by ~ecretary General Nikaido, who will rnaKe every effort to minimize the impact. He will hold his ground if Fukuda, Director C;eneral ot the Economic Planning Agency Komoto and others should issue a challenge; at any rate, preparations will be made for both war and peace. Secure Suzuki's reelect.ion and then strike out at the double election of the Upper and Lower Elouses in the summer of 1983 Tilis sort of broad outline is being fashioned in Tanaka's mind, and it is reported - that placing election expert Takeshita as de~uty secretary general and retaining the post of the director of the Finance and Accounting F~ureau were iricluded in liis deliberations and foresight. It was in July 1972 that Tanaka became prime minister at the young age of 54, and this rnark~ the lOth year since then. The gray on his head has increased. This is the year ~f judgme~t, of acquittal or conviction, that will determine whether the Tanaka residence will enjoy the same kind of festivity on New Year's Day next year. /5 Jan 82 p 2/ " /`rext/ "s. I2egimentation Like the Military P~tterned ~1Lter Tanaka's Corps I~ormer Prime ~~linister Fukuda has been bursting with enthusiasm, since after the cabin~t re~huffle on 30 November last year up to the present. Fukuda's surprising chanqe to an energetic appearance was observed at th~ year-end party of the Fukuda f.action at ~ downtown restaurant on 16 December 1981. It is reported that Fukuda made his declaration before close to 70 Diet members of his faction: "Knotty problems will_ occ~ir from month to month in 1982. It could be ~ year of- 'rr,ajor upheavals in the country.' I asic one and all to do your utmost." 7 E~c~u ~~j~F'ICIA1, liS}~: c~~v~.v APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500040022-8 FOR n~Fi('IA1, I~SN: Otil.~' B~acause, for reasons of his oa~n, Fukuda always pr~~sed for party reforms, vehemently remonstrated aqainst power act:~on by lwrye factions and was always composed at gatherings of. this sort in the past, the younger Diet members were over;oyed and, _ for a change, displayed their ~~nthusias.n at the splendid party that night. "Periodically, at least on~e a month, even if iL is a strain, members of our faction should gather as we have tonigl~t urzd discuss matters for mutual understanding." The members dr~~w close to r^ukuda, and it is r~p.~rted that the derision to meet four times a year was made that evening. Prior to that qatherir.g, Fu!cuda had strongly urged Deputy Chairman of the Executive Council Shiokawa, a former minister of t:ansportation, and others to strengthen the structure of nis faction. Patterned a`ter the organization of the Tanaka faction, he created the "Counselors Club," consisting of 10 Lower House and 8 Upper - House members, among other activities. A ra~king member of the Tanaka faction welcomed the moves ~y rzmarking: "This shows that ~ir Fukuda has finally acknowl- edg~d the importance of ~actional actions. The Fukuda raction should not remain idle while the Tanaka faction keeps growing." Why did FuE:uda succumb to the ~dea of strengthening factional activities to which he had stror..gly objectcd in the past? It is noi. difficult to surmise that one of the biggest reasons was t~~~ humiliation that he had to "yield to those having decisive powers" which ca:ne afte~ he had remarked tnat "power attained only through sheer numbers is problematical" and after he had been strongly critical of the "cabinet reshuffle" by the leadership of. the Suzuki and Tanaka factions. Focusing on Developments rlfter August The reason Prime Minister Suzuki ir:sisted ~~n the selection of Nikaido as secretary general was "clearly in oreparation for his reelection as party president," accord- ing to Deputy Chairman of the Executive Council Shiokawa. Not to be overlooked is Fukuda's strong awareness and feeling of crisis that the ~nain route of the Tanaka faction is being secured by the present executive staff with Nikaido at the top, Deputy Secretary General Takeshita and Chairman of the Diet Policy Committee Tamura." And ~:s Fukuda indicaied, succe~~zvely scheuuled this year are such important events as =ne verdict on individuals in ?1i1 Japan Airways involved in the Lockheed case, econ~mic friction abroad, primarily with the UniLed States, and the prosecution's reconunendation that former Prime Minister Tanaka be sentenced, which will surely rock tPie national political scene. In the analysis of Fukuda's close associates, during these developments, public opinian critical of Suzuki's government will mount, dissatisfaction with yovernment leadership will arise resuiting in the dissolution oF the Dict and t!~e resignation of the prime minister, and what will happen aft-er August is anybody's guess." Gvithout doubt, this faction will act swiFtly in preparation for this turmoil. Then how will Fukuda react wl:en con~ronzed by such a momentous situation? From the standpoint o� h~:ainy been called "The Fair-Haired Boy of the Showa Era" and "The _ Postwar Saionji," following which as `he "Genrc," will he try to exert his influence on the government in power? Or will hc~ rely on his much-awaited theory that has 8 i~OR ~F~'ICIAL USF: ONLti' APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000500040022-8 - FOR OF'FI('1;1L IISl~: ONLI' been consistently discussed as an "undercurrent" in the political world, and in one _ stroke seek a comeback as the prime minister? Fukuda has asserted that "there will be no preliminary presidential election," but in th~ event either the preliminary election or the decisive presidential election is held in November, will he support Director General of the Economic Planning Agency Konioto, whose friendship with him has ~+eepended? As for the presidential election, it is only natural that interest will be focused - within the LDP on the many selective opt~ons open to Fukuda. hientor or Rescored Leader "Although he has openly stated he has no thought of grabbing the reins of govern- _ ment, this is not altogether the truth. He has both the urge to withdraw to become a mentor and the urge to be restored as the pr.ime minister." The Fact is that intermediate Diet leaders who are close to Fukuda have not disavowed these observations. Again this year during the New Year's holiday, Fukuda leisurely enjoyed golfing at the hotel in Miyazaki. "I sank a 13-meter putt last year and so this year I wil.l try to sink a 15-meter putt." Fukuda spoke of golf to express his bubbling political spirits, but from what he and his close associates have said, from the circumstantial evidence of strengthening - his faction and from the appraisal of Fukuda by former prime minister Kislii thai. "Fukuda is peerless in the political world for insight and capacity," the plain - fact is that he has the attributes required to enter the troubled political waters and he should enter them. Although Fukuda strongly demanded the cabinet entry of Mutsuki Kato, who was called a"gray" official because of his Lockheed connection, and received a blow to his prestige when a Suzuki faction leader caustically remarked, "It is not like Fukuda, who has trumpeted for clean government," there is no change in the fact that Fukuda is one of the pillars supporting the Suzuki government. Furthermore, considering that Fukuda is the only strongman who is a match for former Prime Minister Tanaka, from the standpoint of political capacity and career, and as commented by a young member of the Fukuda faction that "Mr Fukuda is one who rides the portable - palanquin and not one who carries it into battle," Fukuda's movements which can sway the stormy political situation have concealed elements that cannot be over- looked. ,ian 82 p 2/ _ /Text/ 4. A Cartel Pleased at Remaining in His Post "Thankful for having him cemain in the cabinet." "Not a day passes without Mr Kmoto's name being seen in the mass media." 9 FOR OFFICIAL (ISF ONI.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500040422-8 ~ FOR OFE~ICIAL USE ONLY A gathering ot inter;nediar_e leaders and yourig mambers of the Komoto faction was held at a restautan~ in downto~a~1 Toi:Yo in l~:,te Dece~ber of last year. Director Generai of the ECOriU~~1~c Flanning Agency Komoto has inv~te~7 ihem to dinner, which he rarely did, so they coula ;~~eet and tGlk, but he did not show up at all because he was busy attending succes:.i~.-e meetings related to business and finance. Yet no one complained and one atte~-.::uat ~emar~ced on 1~�av?ng: "I had a good time ar the expense of hardworhing Mr Korr,oto." It can be said, according to Kor.~oto, t' "the bi59est government topics that must be confronted" are Japan's economi saddled with such problems abroad as trade friction with the United States and Eur~pe, at home wiLh fiscal reconstructic~n and business sluggishr.ess, and the to the ~ople's request for a reduction lI~ taxes--a cry which is heightened by the day. In these circumstances, Komoto, who refused to retire from public service during the cabinet reshufile and remained as a statesman who understands living economics, left a deep impression of hi:~ tremendous capabilities with his overseas economic poli- cies, tne compilation of the F'~-82 budqet, erc. According to the laudat~ry descrip- tion by associates oi: ~Comoto, i~i tne ~ii~al analysis, Frime Minister Suzuki, who had been yielding to ~inance t~lini~ter Watanabe, was forced to accept Komoto's positive economic throry and the theory on the necessity of tax reductions, and the same Watanabe, who hacl the prime minister in t11P clutch of his hands, dis- patched Finance Ministry staff personnel to Komoto for explanations, ar~d as a result of these acti�~i~ies, Komoto's reputation and his proposals carry a tremendous amount of "weiyht" within the qeverr.ment and the LDP. One Shoulci Try Eiis Luck at Least Once - Concerning the pcst of prime minister sought by Kamoto, this is the year he might be faced with a do-or-die sit:a,-~::i~:;. At age 70, he should "try his luck at least once, says �or;r,er Pri:~e Minister hiiki, and the presidential election is his last chance. He cannot hetp but "make a dash for it in the autumn," according to Naozo Shibuya, forme~ minister of home affairs. Even the consolidation of the Komoto faction as a~olitical body under the name of the "New Bolicy Research Association" on the ~irst of the year car. be said to have been undertaken to remove the "Ftomoto private snop" label pinne~ on by a leader of th~: Suzuki faction, in preparation f.or tne anifi~~:~tion o� the faction. i:~_;t the path for the realizai.ion ot Romoto as prime minister is "extremely difficult cnnsidering the pres~nt conditions wi'thin the party," oF?ined a leader of the Tanaka faction. Although there was a cl.ash with former Prime Minister Fukuda over the reFusal to select for the cabinet gray officiul Mutsuki Kato, chairman of the party's National Orqaniration Committee, duriny the cabine~ reshuffle in November oF l.ast year, che "S~.!zuki government" is unshakeable f-or the present with its ali.gnmenL' wi~h the `i'anaka and Fukuda factions. Having been bound to the dynamics of large factionalism ~nd having continued to take a cooperative stance with Prime Minister Suzuki on his policies to protect the constitution, overall security yuarantee policy, etc, when and how wili Yomoto split fr~m the "Suzuki government" and challenge Suzuki's leadership? Broadly speaking, two analyses prevail within the faction. One is the theor.y of Suzuki's self-destruction. The other is the theory of policy differences among Komoto, Suzuki and the resL- of the candidates for prime minister. With a bit oi 10 FUR UFFICIAI~ USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 FOR nF'F'IC'IAI. IfSE ONLti' wishful thinking, a leader of the Komoto faction remarked that with the first theory, "regardless of the intentions of Tanaka and Fukuda to support the Suzuki governmenk, Suzuki himself will come to realize the limits of his capacity as leader and with- - draw after this term." Regarding the second theorj with arguments on policy differences, Suzuki has drawn the analysis th~t "inevitably policy discussions on the people's level wi11 be held - on the performance in the formal report of the regular session of the Diet, the Second Ad Hoc Commission on Administrative Reform ar,.d the operations in the com- pilation of the FY-83 budget which is focusad on tax reductions. "In the event the problem of policy selection is submitted to the people, factional strength will not be a considera*ion," according to factional leader Heisuke Hani. Emphasize Differences By Activ~�ly Participating Although called the "prince who never smiles" and the "taciturn fellow," Komoto has been saen conspicu~usiy recently in active conversation at cabinet meetings and at other related gatherings. This sort of more can be considered to be part of ti:e strategy to contrast the rivalry and the differences in policies between Komoto and Director General of the Administrative Manaqement Agency Nakasone, as well as others. For sure, there is reason to see why Suzuki's associates and the Tanaka faction are so sensitive to the warning, "Be cautious with Komoto's remarks." Komoto is never deceptive when discussing the future of the present government. But _ judging from the moves for rapport with Fukuda which is quietly underway, and the close association with Ichiro Nakagawa, the director general of the Science and Technology Agency, Minister of International ^_�'rade and Industry Shintaro Abe and other new leaders, in the event the political world is shaken up at the time of the fi.rst trial verdict of formez: Prime Minister Tanaka, unmistakably Komoto will have tha intention to stake his repvtation in the political arena. Will the presidential election in November be decided by negotiations or by public election? At this stage a conclusion cannot be drawn, but it is common knowledge that Komoto will surely raise his banner. As to the dying possibility of a preliminary presidential Election, some within the faction are hopeful that, as former Minister of Transportation Kinji Moriyama asserted, "The possibility of a preliminary election exists." The 1982 political scene might possibly witness big waves when Komoto breaks his - silence and starts moving. /7 Jan 82 p 2/ /Text/ 5. Troubled-Filled Spring Number One Candidate of the Post-Suzuki Era "Do you have any good ideas?" It was one evening in December last year, right after the cabinet reshuffle, that - Director General of the Administrative Management Agency Yasuhiro Nakasone asked - this of a friend whom he had not seen for awhile. The conversation naturally shifted to Nakasone's strategy in taking over the reins of government. 11 FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500440022-8 Ft)R OF~'L('L~l. t~SF: ONI.}, His friend asked: "Isn't the 'ranaka faction going to be allied with you?" Nakasone replied: "6V~:li, tne..~'s no guarantee." His triend cantinued: "Firsr. oE' a11, shou:ldn't you seriously tackle the issue of _ administrative reforms? The cancer amon~ these is the National Railways Corporation. Conduct a searching inquiry into the National Railways and you will be credited wit'., the achievement. Other avenues caiil opEn ur from there." Although pointed out by Niasaharu Gotcn3a of ~ne Tanaka faction as "the natural number one candidate of the post-Suzuki era," Nakasone has not been able to i:ake a positive outlook. This uncertainty was evident in the conversation with his - friend. With his support oF Ohira during the passage of the non-confidence motion of i:he Uhira cabinet which led to tFie double election 2 years ago, the basic strategy of thP Nakasone faction has been for coalition with the mainstream forces of Ohira, which later became the Suzuki factiQn, and Tanak~a. Although some dissatisfaction has existed with the cabinet reshuffle and selection of party officials last year, within the party the foundation of the Suzuki govern- ment, w!~ich is supported by the two former prime ministers, Tanaka and Fukuda, - dces not appear to be easily shaken. The Tanaka faction, which Nakasone is depen- dent on, is f.i,ghting desperatel;~ to shake off the derogatory effects of the Lockheed case in order to remain solidified, and winning over its consensus for "Nakasone after Suzuki" will surel.~ take tirne. At tne Administra~ive Reform Committee of the Upper House in late November of last year, Nakasone emphasized that "W~ must uni_te as one body with Prime Minister Suzuki as a matter of life and death, un"til the final report of the Ad Hoc Commission on Administrative Reform in March 1983." After that, in typical manner, he expressed his inner feelings with t~-~e hai!c~ r~oe;~ of Kairyo, pupil of Basho: "Go, go until you fall fli~ or. your facc on the Plains of Ogi." ~ "That poem means that Suzuki's reelection is gor~d. With the present state of affairs within the party, we are in no position to force the issue." Associates of Nakasone have their views. As lang as the prospects of a short-term decisive battle aimed at the presidential electior. this auLUmn does not unfold, one can faresee a position of dealing with mediun- and long-range strategies, based on the premise of Suzuki's reelection. "Ab;;orbed in Administrative Yeform" Again This Year. As to the move of Director Genecal of the Economic Planning Agency Toshio Komoto, who will compete in the post-Suzuki era, a Nakasone faction leader gave his inter- pretation that "Komoto is a busin~ssman who fully calculates the advantages and disadvantages. f:e will not rashly appear before the public election for the presi- _ dency and challenge Suzuki. Tnere is every indication that the presidency will be decided through negotiation.~~ It seems Nakasone's thoughts are concentrated on "being absorbed in administrative reform" again this f~ar, and although he might be criticized to some extent, admin- istrative reEorm is the only means for him to pave the way. The following views also prevail withir~ the faction. "Poland is in a state of internal war, and this depicts the severity of international a~fairs. Criticism 12 FOR Oi~FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 F'OR OFFI('I:~L l!SF: Oti'Lti" is mounting over whether allowing Japan to be the only country living in luxury is right or not, and strong voices are being raised to seek an increase of the defense strength. Even taking the single issue of the additional deficit-covering yovernment bonds in the FY-81 supplementary budget, the cry within the party is that Suzuki is not dependable. Then gradually the protest will be: 'Is Suzuki's reelection necessary?"' How wi11 Nakasone react in the event the political situation changes because of an upheaval? How will he cope with Suzuki's strategy of containing him in the cabinet, and what about his entry in the presidential race? He may be Porced into selecting from complex options. Study Group Consisting of Prominent Younger Members "Government control is doubtful if the impression conveyed is intrafactional weak- ness. Let us gather at our headauarters to strengthen our unity." These rallying remarks were made by~ Sosuke Uno, former director general of the Def~nse Agency, and '~adashi Kuranari, former director general of the Economic Plan- ning Agency, both of the Counse~ors Club, at the general meeting of the Nakasone faction at year-end, which was also the last meeting for the year. The bulk of the young Diet members of the Naka~one faction with a record of less than five terms belong to the "Onchi Kai," a policy group led by Finance Minister Michio Watanabe, whose political star has been rising as one of the new leaders, and this move has conveyed the impression within and outside the party that Plakasone's faction lacks unity. As a result, the young Diet members agreed to _ exercise discretion when participating in the "Onchi Kai" and related study groups. The faction will form its own study group, principally for the young members, this spring. A Nakasone faction leader who is a member of th~ "Onchi Kai" remarked that it should be considered as a small organization and not as an intermediate-size organizational force. Althou h g participation in the regular meetings of the "Onchi Kai" study group is expected to drop, some observers are doubtful of the effectiveness of the pressure exerted on the members. Whenever he finds time, Nakasone is seen painting. Right now he is painting Mt Kamuro in Hakone. "When wi11 it be finished? It will be like the unfinished sympk~ony," laughed Nakasone. While eyeing Komoto, who is strengthening his alliance with Fukuda and the new leaders, what sort of sketch will Nakasone draw of government leadership and political power? /8 Jan 82 p 2/ - ~Text/ 6. Signs of Sprouting Successive Dilemma From Containment I~lthough this is the new year of the 1982 fluid political world, none of the new leaders shows any sign of promise to outsiders. At the time of the cabinet reshuffle and selection of party officials in late November of last year, they were heralded as "New leaders march abreast" and "One straight line sideways," and somewhat the arrival of a new era was the feeling. 13 _ FOR OF~IC(AI. USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500040022-8 FoK ~.~F o~t.ti, A new leade.r oE junior rank offered this explanation. "Contrary to the mood, the restor.ation and intens~~ication or tne LDP's ancientregime (~eference to the olc; system before the Prench revolution) took priority, and the individual was forced - to exert all his energies in the duties af his assiqned post, and besides being drawn awa~~ from engari;~g in �'ac~ionai functions, his exposure to the poli.tical limelight was minimized. Son�: ure wel.l known but have no record of accomplishments, while others have accompiished qui~e a bit for thE party but have never been recog- nized; at any rate, the new leader5 are not of the caliber possessing both name and care~r.'' A month ago, just after completion of the cabinet reshuffle, Rekusuke Tanaka, chair- man of the Policy Afrairs Research Council, received an ultimatum two or three times from Ku~iyoshi Saito, former w~lfare mini~~er and a leading counselor of the "Kochi Kai" of the Suzuki faction. "Rokusuke, y~u have fir,ally been appointed to the important past that you coveted. It's about time you rad the bunch of capricious elders quit attending the meetings of the disreputable New Generation FZesearch Assoc;.ation." The ~?eor Generation Re~earch Asscciation whic;~ l:okusuke Tanaka presides over is the source of power that cleared the way for his r~pid promction to chairman of the Policy Affairs Research Council. It was only na'r_ural f~r Tanaka to balk. Fiowever, in light of the strony measures or3ered by Prime Minister Suzuki utilizing Saito as _ spokesman, the oEf.ic~ of t::e New Generation Research Association in Takagi Cho has remained locked since ].ast year. In a sin;ilar action, Rokusuke Tanaka's rival, Cnief Cabinet Secretary Kiichi Miyazawa, stepped down as head of the Hirakawa I