JPRS ID: 10472 JAPAN REPORT

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• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 145
• Document Creation Date: November 1, 2016
• Sequence Number: 48
• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/ 10472
21 April 1982
Ja an Re ort
p p
~FOUO 24/82)
FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SEHVIC~
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JPRS L/10472
21 T~pril 1982
~
~
JAPAN REPORT
(FOUO 24~'82~
CONTENTS ~
POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
Suzul~i's Reelectiom Predicted by ICozawa
(Harubumi K~ozawa; TFIE JAPAN ~CONOMIC JOURNAL, 30 Mar 82)...... 1
~ Confrontation Between Komeito, Soka Gakkai Seen
(Takehiko Takahashi; MAINIQiI DAILY NEWS, 25 Mar 82)......... 3
Komoto Factor in Elections E~camined
(Ken3i Kitahara; ~iE DAILY YOMIURI, 26 Mar 82) 5
Editorial on Weinberger's Proposal
(Editorial; ASAHI EVENING NEWS, 30 Mar 82) 6
ECONOMIC
Shipbuilders Expand Businesa in Non-Shipbuilding Fielde
(~eorge Nakamura; INDUS TRIA, Mar 82) 8 .
Aluminum-Refining Facilitiea To Be Discarded
(DTIflON KE.IZAI SHII~UN, 4 Mar 82) . . . . . . . . . . 18
Cardboard Induatry Forms Depression Cartel ~
(Shinichi Kaizaki IntPrview; NIKKEI SANGYO SHII~UN,
19 Mar 82) ..........................a.......:................ 20
S CIENCE AND TEQiNOLOGY
Accurate Instrumentation for Safe Plant Operation
(Shinaaku Kinugasa; TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 23
Semantic Gap in Computer Architecture
(Noriyuki Kamibaysahi; T~CHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 42
Fifth Generation Computer P�~o~ect
(TLCHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 60
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P~1K tlrr~~.ln~, ~?~v~,t
Polymeric Materiala tn Electronica
(TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 91
Yamaguchi Satellite Communications Center
(TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 95
Acous tic Emission Technology
(TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 98
Polarizing Optical Fiber
(TECHNOCRA'T, Jan 82) 101
100kw Wind-Power Generator
(TEQiNOCRAT, Jan 82) 103
Competiti.n !~roimd VISI's
(~cxriocx~T, J~ s2) ioh
Arduous Efforts Ma.de To Complete Communications Agreement
(NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 15 Mar 82) 109
Re~~iaion of Postal Services Agreement Reached
(NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 16 Mar 82, NIIiON KOGYO SHIMBUN,
19 Mar 82) 112
Circuit Use fa 'Others' Approved ~
Liberalized Data Communications
Background of Communications Agreement
(NIHOh KEIZAI SHIMBIIN, 17, 18 Mar 82) 118
New Uses of Circuits
Test for Efficiency
Liberalization of Data. Communications Unsatisfactory
(TOKYO SHII~UN, 18 Mar 82) 125
Freer Data CommunicatiQns Seen
(SANKEI SHIMBt]N, 18 Mar 8c) 127
Plans for Uranium Enrichment Prototype Plant Firmed Up
(DENKI SHIMBUN, 3, 4 Feb 82) 129
Division of Expenaes
'DENKI SHIMBUN' Edi torial
Toy~ta Strengthens Positj,on Zhrough Strategic Merger
(Shozo Hochi; BUSINESS JAPAN, Mar 82) 134
Moonlight Pro~ect Succeeda in Recycling Energy Research
(Takehiko Shimura; BUSINESS JAPAN, Mar 82) 138
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
SUZUKI~S REELECTION PREDICTED BY KOZAWA
Tokyo THE JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL in Englieh 30 Mar 82 p 10
~Political Scene co~umn by Hari~bumt Kozawa: "Suzuki's Reelection Is Certain, ~
But..."~
~Text~
In the ~midst ~o( lingering recession and But Suzuki's sides and LDP oiRcials have re~
mounting trade irictio~ with the U.S. and ~~~y said that they will "not stick to the
Europe, there is a growing belieC among p~~~~ stance" to pass the revised Public
ruling Liberal Democratic Party politiciam ptCice Election La~v through the Diet session
that Prime Minister ;lenko Suzuki will cer- Gme. Thus, it the 1982 government budget
ta:~ly be reelected to the party presidency ~~u~ of its passage, there ia no prospect
cand the premiersirip) in the coming Novem- f~ any political turmoil during the pr~ent
ber ele~:tion. Diet session.
Political obaervers attributed Suzuhi's U~~ these circumstancea, the biggest .
nearly en5uced reelection to the fact~ that: (1) ~a~~e f;,; ?rime Minister Suzuki is trade ,
the Suzuki Cabu;et has managed to have as- (~ction for the time being. But since the cur=
sured the passage at the C~scal 198Z govern ~t Diet session is to eud lxEore the Paris
~ ment budget before the fiscal year starts on ~
April i, atter rejecting the oppas ~~it �f cauntries
ixion s de- , s~ted in early Jone. there ia rw praspect of
" mand for tax reduction, the biggest con- Wo~.y ~or Suzuki ttiat his adminiatration will
troversy in the curient Diet sesaion; (2) that _ be g~~ over trade friction isauea by the
the U. and European pressures on Japan a~~tion in the. Diet sesaion.
over trdde friction issue.s will not directly af- ~e most worclsome issue for Suzuki, in
tect the fate of the Suzuki Cabinet; atid (3) ~b$ ~rd, is the liberalization oE Japan's
that even if the Second Ad Hoc Committee on ~*et foc farm ar?d dairy products. includ-
Administrative Reforn~s comes up with. gut Suzuki's sidea are rather
drastic recommendations on the reQrganiza- um~uc over the iasue, aayiag that "we can
tion oE the Japa~se National Railwaya and �p
o:hers, it will be in the next aedina'ry Diet solve the matter by resorting to subsidies to
session slated atter Suzuki's reelection that fa~~, ~ all other attempts have failed."
bills to realize such recommendationa an E~~e�~ ~ ~~r' he
proposed.
All oppasition parties have demanded that should Eollow budget and administrative re-
the ~Government cut taxes, but they have forms or retlationary measures. But cecent-
been unable to gain any concrete cdncession~ ly. Suzuki has somewhat gradually chanQ!~
from the Suzuki C~binet on the matter. his stance from emphaais oa fiscal recon-
Secondly, major bills that the Government structioa to thesefl~fionary PoUcy side when
and the LDP are trying to pass throuSh the he insinuated that there might be a tax re-
cun~ent Diet session are only the 1982 budget duction after fiscal 1983.' [n other words,
and the revision ~ the Public Office Election Suzuki has adopted the stance propased by
Law designed to cha~e the national con- Toshio Komoto, director general of the Eco-
stituency system of.~he Ho~ae o~ Councillors. nomic Pi,:~hing Agency, who is expected to
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run~ against Suzuki in the coming LDP presi-
dential election. This change of stance could
be said to be one of Suzu7ci's moves to pave
the way to his reelection.
A prevailing view within the LDP is
that there ~viU surely be simultaneous elec- .
tions for both Houses of the Diet next yesr
and if the LDP wit~s both elections, Suzuki
will be able to maintain his power, but will
�.step dawn, if los~" If one assumes this
scenario, in the event Prime Minister Suzuki
can no longer dodge taking some decisive ac-
tioas on~administrative ceforms, he can dia-
solve the Diet and pick ihe issue ~ ihe Japa-
nese National Railways, which is under
sharp attack for its bankrupt managemeM~
using it as an election issue which will enable
Suzuki to rally support of the Liberal Demo-
cratic Party rather easily.
Thus, the implementation of administrative
reform after hia reelection is a crititical test
for the survival of the Suzuki Administratioa
(Harubumi Kozcwa !a a Nihon Keirai de-
puty political editor.) . ~
COF~RIGHT: 1982 The Nibon Keizai Shimbun, Inc. ,
CSO: 4120/223 ~
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
~ONFRONTATION BETWEEN KOMEITO, SOKA GAKKAI SEEN
Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEWS in English 25 Mar 82 p 2
~Nagatacho Doings column by Takehiko Takahashi: "Subtle Confrontation
Between Komeito, Soka Gakkai"~
~Text~
The Kome~to is a politlcal At the tlme ~~~hea it tirst ad-
pacty suppotted by t6e Soka vanced into the Diet. _ the
Gakkal. The Elrst time that the K o m e i t o c a r r I e d o u t
Soka Gakkai advanced into the m o v e m e n t s a i m e d a t
National Diet aas ~n 1931 when "purifying the political world."
ihree of its members were In this respect the Komeito's
elfcted to the House ot Coun� recent attitude has begua to
c;llors. � raise some questions. This is
In Noveraber 1936 a political because newspaper and
organization called Kcemi Seiif magazine reports of political
Renmei ~ Clean Polltics movements have been taking
Federation) was formed. After up "the relationship betv?eeo
15 seats were won in the House the Komeito and former Prime
ot Councillors etection in 1937, Minister Kakuei Tanaka" with
aa intra-Diet group calied increasingfrequency.
Komeikai was set up. �
. A political party called the Dissastisfaction
K o m e i t o w a s. f o r m a 11 y recent attitude of the
established 'w May 1939. Tt?ee K o m e i t o i s a r o u s i n g
purpose was to advance into dissatisfaction ~ in the Soka
the Honse of Representatives. Gakkai also. A meeting of Soka
In the 1942 general election, five Gakkal youths in the Shibuya
Komeito members were ~trict was held on ~Iarch 14.
elected. At a gathering held afterward
Foilowing a sweeping ad- by members of the ofiicer class,
vance, the Komelto stumbled in voices of dissatisfaction were
the dual elections [or the House heard about the homeito being
ot Representatives and the ~n as having relations rrith
House of Councillocs in 1980 aad Tanaka.
it now has 33 seats in the House
of Representatives and 26 in the "We desire that the Komeit.o
House ot Councillors. As the Diet members act by returning
second largest opposition party, to the starting point" was one
next to the Japan Socialist statement that was heard. The ~
Party, the Komeito possesses a atmosphere was that the
strong voice ia the political Komeito Diet members will be
world. asked to do so more positively
in the tuture.
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Voices~ ~ wlthio
the Soka haw1~ in t6e case~ of tbe
Gakka! critical ot the Komeito Komeito, CDafrman Take~ri is
are heard in local disb~icts atso.~ the onty one who cea resist
~ A~niong Iocal assembty~ea W Ikeda tc au1 eactent. The
Romeito members tear Wat if
some who are saying tbat in TakeiM- is replac~d, Ikeda's
next year'a local elections, t6ep~ control over the Komeito vrould ;
wW seoede Uom~ tAe Bome(to become abeol~fe. .
aud rua as Sote Gakl~ai. cao- T6e . Komeito is concerned~
didates. . " -abont its tvmoted� rel~oa~ip .
The Komeito executives are: with Wrmet Prime ~t~'~
undaibtedly aware of this at-: Tanaka. At tbe pr~at tim~ iM
mosphere. Nevert4eless, the: ~Taoata ~a ~ud~ed B~~Y
relatio~ between Komeitn' ~~e
~
- . . Chairnnan Yashikatsn T~Iceiry .
~ and tocmer :Prlme. Ministeq sevet its relations with Taaaka
Tanaka seem to be~quite doae;~ and ag~in launch criticism ot~
Beeaus~ of ~oblfgatioa tor; "~YPo~I~�" � �
"various aasistanee� in tp~ Uatil then, because ot various~
past," ~ It seems that t6a circwnstances, ..the Komeito~
Bometfo is uoable to change If~ can only go along asit haa been
attltude toward Tanajca. ; ~in~.
~Hoaorary Presidmt Daisuke, ~tight now; the question is~
~ bceda cartinnes to wield eoo-~ what sUoWd be dooe ~n case~ ~ '
siderable iattuence oner ~ Diet membec Takayuki Sato is
Gakkai evpa now. It Is sald thaC foued guilty in fhe Loc~heea'
when mention is ~made pt Sok~ tr~al. 'Fbe problem h?volved'
Gakkaf eXecutives, the oaly.. Sato's "resi~atba irom the
aa~ne spoken by Soka Gakkat Di~ " The'Komeito exeeutives
members is "Ikeda.". . are ot tt~ee opWion fhat "Sato �
II�da Is well awace ot. th~ ~ will voiuntarlly gtve up his Diet
dissatisfaction that the a~em~ seat." They are not thWdng of , 'i
bers have ~ concerniag th~+ staading in the forefroat to taBe .
Komeito . aad, ii possible. ~ action.
r~ould Iike to have someor~ e~ Snch an attitude on tde part o~
replace Kome~to Chairmaa the.Komeito is alao causing a, ~
Takeirf. - � ~ � problem coacerning the '
~ polit~cal choice to~be made by ~
Under Ikeda? � , middle~of-the �?nad parti~s. � ~
Si~t !f Honorary Preafdent, Thee solidarlty ot the c~trist
Ikeda were to meapon this parties is likety to, conie, it ever,
openlY, ft. would nm co~mt~er to5 only atter indgment is handed
tbe pcbdpk p( "s~paratbo oF~ drnva oa Tanaka.
politics � and religfoa." H~ (The.writer is aa advlser to
camot,~c~ . tp~t,~�~t
,nwWe .qt~ the Melolch/ Neaspapers and~
lormercbffetedltodal writerl.
. ,
COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Daily News 1982
CSO: 4120/223
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
KOMOTO FACTOR IN ELECTIONS F~FAMINED
Tokyo THE DAILY YOMIURI ia English 26 Mar 82,p 3
~Political Beat coluaai by Renji Ritahara: "rhe Komoto Factor"~~
~Text~ �
Wlth ' tbe ~5~~~ ~~~198~ ` - ~wft~a the~ psrty: Also, IIe !a atrengtheninB
budget b~ th~ Honse oi Representattves, . tfes wlth lormer premler Takeo Fukuda,
the domeattc acene has become cslm but tormer lorei~ minieter Sunao Sonoda,
there are tr~mors beiag caretully v~atch- who beloags ta an independent faction,
ed a?lthia the Liberal-Democratic Party and ~ko KaauBa. permanent advlser to
(LDP): ' . . ~ the Democratic-Sodalist Party (L~SP).
Prlme 11~ni~ter Suzuki and members oi in the area ot policy, he drawa a clear
the LDp matnatream are aow paying claae line oi demarcation betweea himseli and
attention to Toehio Komoto, director-gea- Suatil~i by etrongly insiating npon positive
eral oi the ':~conomle P2anaing ~i8ency ~ecal and economic managemen~
(EPA). ' ~ . ~ . Alt this conaidend~ 8utnki and h1s snp- ~
They are a~ger to 'determine wbether porters aee Homoto =ather Lhan Nakaaone
he wW contluuye ta~ rema"'ih. paasive or take aa. the strongeat rival to the premier's bid
podtire actlaa~~ pollttcs2~y. Whatever he ~ for reelectlon.
doee, thia wiII hava '�an lnnnence oa the Bnt there are some obstaclea and as yet
gall~lcsl. dtnstlon. ~ uareaolved factors . which cause problems
Almg ait~i. Yaa~iro Nairasone, direc- ior Homoto !a h!a challenging Suauki.
tor-g~nasj� M the AdminlatrsLive Maa- Ii there b no pnHminary LDP election
sgement A~enc~. Romoto 1s s kadiug and only Dlet maabers have votes, there
candicyats tor the -LDP preaidency. 1s 1lttle chance . for Romoto to w!n the
Former preader Ral~nai � Tanal~a pointa electloa.
ouC th~t Nalcseone eanrot escape from It seems now that the court's verdi~t on
the task ot sdmiulstistive reform. T'hen- Tanaks in the Lockheed payos trlala 1s
iore. Nara~cae is linlted unwltlin6lY to un11ke1Y to be delivered thla year. There-
g~b, fore; th~ LDP wlll eacspe the leared
IInliYe Nalaoone, Romoto is lree to �o . turDulence iaternally in s preaidential
ahat he wlshes. And iL~ must be noted election yeAr: '
Lha~ at 71, the coming LDP preaidential Wlthont atrong plua iactors, will the
election acl~eduled ior November , ls re- very rational and cool Komo�o take such
garded as Komoto'a laat chauce. s atep aa to resign from the cabinet and
8ome poliLical obxrvers believe Chat So- rna against Suauki?
moto may nsign irom the cabinet around . Homoto is reported in good health and
June !n order to prepare htmseli tor elec- unconcerned about hia age and above all
tlen campat~ng and manenveriug. ia not an impatient man.
Aomoto a:readY hss msde conslderable It ia posaible that Homoto may decide
e8orta to expand his influence aithiu the that next sad not this year fa the time
I,pp, to malce hta move ahen the Tanaka ver-
He haa. bonda with Ichiro Nakagawa, dlct may very well cause a crisia in the
director-general of the Science aad Tech� LDP.
nology Agencr, snd InternatSonal Trade But in consideriag what the political
and Indnstry Mlnister Shintaro Abe, both developmenta might be 1n the near fu-
of whom ru~r conai~end "new , leadera" ture, we cannot ignore Komoto.
COPYRIGIiT: The Daily Yoffiuri 1982
CSO: 4120/223
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
EDI1'ORIAL ON WEINBERGER~S PROPOSAL
Tokyo ASAHI EVENING NEWS in English 30 Mar 82 p 7
~Editorial: "Weinberger's Proposals "J
[Text]
Ia ~is :p~eech at~ tbe Japaa Nationat Prese~ Club. on Marcb
~ 26 a~qd at the n~lat meeting of top US. and Japan defen~e
�of5ciata on Manb 27. U.~. Secretary of Defeme. Caspar
" W. Weinberger asked Jnpan rapidly to develop the ability ta ~
defend � 1,000 nautical miies of eea�lanes.. In the re~ular.
~ defensq officiab� meeting; be wen~ proposed that measurea for;
:.the dafense of tbe.,~laam should be studied in the workin~-
~levd. talks on defeaee in .Hawsn this summer.
. Conceruios tbe eea-lane prcblem. tbere are ~t;ll differ-~
. ~~oe~ in ths aay the :~thorities in tba. U.S. and Japan :view;
tl~a matta. ~T3e statemea4 that Weiaberger bas made since
ooming ta Japan have exprased, as if it were only natural,.
tbe Ameticaa inberpretation of the. allacation. of defense roks;
_ beta~em the .U.S. ~ and. Jspan. about whicb there is a great ~
dal of disquiet within Japaa. ' In the can of defending the,
se~-lanea, tben ii atron~ domeede oppoeition, snd no conxnstu.
'I'he plao to defend .1~000 nautical miles of sea-lanes was
fasR broacbed wben tb~ Prime Miniater visited the U.S. in
. May � 1981. In~ tbe join't statement, it was' said that Japan ~
� wotild ' maks ~ceater etforta for the defeese of the sea and
airspace sround 7apaa. But SuzuYi went beyond the "sitr-
re~mding uaa"-and propo~ed the Sgure of 1,00~ nauticat
. miles. Now. the ~ U.S. has ~ona a atep further and is trying
'to mske Japen assnme aa evea grester role than the Japanese �
eaviss'ed. ~ ~ , . : . .
Bat aa~ important poliry eoncerninQ tht defene~ of the'
� xa.}anes, ahich cwld mean a reincer~retation of tbe .U.S:
~ ~ Japaa 3acurity 'IYaty, shou}d not~ be presented as a promisa
ea tbe U.S witbout being of~icially discassed by the National
D~enre Camcil. '
'I3e 2,000 nautical mile plan wa~ ori~inally proposed
~ by the uniformed members of the Defenx Agency, buc
defendin~ 1,000 nautical miks of ses-lanes is a very difficult
t~elc eren for tbe U.S. Navy. Some people say that the
~Self-Defea~e Focti~si cannot powbly uadertake the fa~k.
One eannot help fearins that the d~fease of the xa-laae~,
wbicb is aayway an impaaibb taet~ crill be uxd by the i7.S.
ae � ltwer 1n dpnaaqin~ tbat Japan incream its deienu bud~et
by more than it iacreae~s�tbe bud~eb for other thiegs.
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~ T1~e xcond pi+obkm b Weinber~er's ~tatement in hia
speecb u tLe Japan National Preas Club: "But Japanese foroea
c~pabk of p~ovidinQ ses . s~nd sir defen~e in tbe Northwat
~ Psicific coold complemeat U.S. atratesic aad convendonal force~
sia tbe area." Japan's rok under the U.S:
Japan Securiry 'Treaty
~ ls cooperation within t~ tramework of defense ~ only. What
n the meania~ of "c~npiementin~ US. :trstegic aad coavm-
J tional foroes"? The U.S. rtque:t in tbe Hawaii matin~ laat
year. tbat Japan~ snb~tan6a11y increaee t6e number of F-iS
tigbters and P-3C antisnbmarine pl~ea it posseaees, can be
~ooostr~ed a mwaina tbat the U.S wanp Jspaa. to atwme the
~ttau~ic role of coupterin~ the Soviet Backfine bomben and
mia~afirin~ wbmarine~ ~ If this ia 'so, it ckarIy Qoes beyond
tbe ftamework of defense cnly. ~ . � . .
In addi6on. Weinberjer w~ent so ~~far aa so .aay, '~e
IaQaaeia fonxs today bava not yet reacbed: the point of beiag
sbfs to catryc out thar comHtutional mission fully." Thougb
th~ n coucbed ia terms that appear to . rapec~. the Constitn-
tion. one wtpecp t6at it is~ aimin~ at emsec~lada~ the Coa-
etitotion. ' . . ,
'Ia' its''`.
.dcciaoa to' IiR ibe ban oa the . uea ~oE tbe ~fund3 ~
tor' sbe remodeltn~ oL F~ fI~htera. tbe Qovernanent advaaced
the ~w inoerpetistation that judpaeap as w whetber ~omething
coostiRuta a:, tbrest to other couatriea caa chan'a u a rpult
of developmenb in m~itaty technoloQy. In tbia way~ it has
increaaed tha uope of t6e armaaoents th~t t6e SDF caa use.
Aad in the matkr of defending 1,000 nautical mika of aea-
lane's, it is �tey~n~~: to increaa the xope oP defenae.
I~ ambi~uow redefinitions, tLe Del~eose A~encx'a conatant
. preeentation of. faia . accompli~ ~and .the viohtion of civilian
con'ti+ot�. of the SDF are to ~be prtvtnted, tae Prlme M;aiiter
bas to ~tand .bp � tbe principb o~ drfenu only and dbmowtrate
bis k~ckrs6ip,.~~Marth 28~'. . ~ , :.r'. .
COPYRIGHT: Asahi Eveaing Newa 1982
CSO: 4120/223
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. . .
E(70NOMIC
~
SHIPBUILDERS EXPAND BUSINESS IN NON-SHIPBUILDING FIELDS
Tokyo INDUSTkIA in English Vol 12, No 3, Mar 82 pp 9-16
[Article by George Nakamura: "Major Japanese Shipbuilders Expand Business in
Non-Shipbuilding Fields"]
[Text] New Moves
Topics naw much talked about in Japanese industrial circles are industrial
robots, mechatronics, microcanputers, biomass and biotechnology, to cite a few.
All these are industrial areas that are considered to have great ehances of ex-
pansion in the near future, and n?ajor Japanese shigbuilding firms are trying to
join plans to industrialize products in these fields in one way or another.
T'he Japanese shipbuilders also have strong interest in the nation's defense in-
dustxy. Last December, the Japanese Go~vernment published the national budget
for fis.cal 1982 beginning on April 1, 1982. The budget, subject to Parliamen-
tary approval, provides an outlay of ~t2,586,100 million for defense expendi-
tures. The fiqure represents an increase af 7.754$ over the previous year.
The grawth rate exceeds the originally-set ceilinq of 7.5$, while the grawth
of other appropriations is curbed to a bare minimum to reduce deficits in state
finances. Z'he ratio of defense spending to the gross national product is 0.9 3$.
Indications are that the Government will continue to give top fiscal priority
to defense buildup and that the ratio will most likely to surpass 1$ of GNP in
fiscal 1984 or 1985. On the othe'r hand, the shipbuilding industry holds a ma- ~
jor sector of the nation's defense industry.
Another area that Japanese shipbuilders rire trying to put their hand to is the
~ ocean dsv~elopment industry in which they can make better use of their technol-
ogy than in any othe r areas of industry. The business of offshore structures,
centering cn submarine oil drilling rigs, enjoyed 3.ts first golden.era during
the past year or two. Submarine oil drilling projects are being carried out
in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Po Hai (Gulf of Chinll) and some.
other areas. in the Heaufort Sea (in the Arctic Ocean), Dane Petroleum Co. of .
Can ada and major oil companies plan to launch oil drillinq p rojects, and neces-
sary equipment has already been ordered. The obtainable amount of undersea oil
deposits in the Arctic Ocean area is estimated at 320,000 million barrels in
the Middle East. The world's ocean development is steadily expandinc to the
icy waters. Japanese shipbuildinq firms are losing no time in preparinq for
ocean develapment in the icy waters in the secand golden era.
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lNLY
The challenqe to a eeries of new qrawth industries by major Japanese ship-
builders is in line with the policy that they have been pursuing since 1975 -
to "break with shipbuilding" - to enter new areas of business.
The Beginning of 'Breaking with Shipbuilding~
In 1975, when Japanese shipbuilders experienced~ the
adverse effects of the oil crisis, they strongly felt that an
unprecedentedly serious recession woutd come sooner or
later. As they had feared, new shipbuilding orders stopped
coming in 1977. This state continued through 1979~ plung-
ing the shipbuilding industry into what might be called a
"destructive recession."
The industry took all sorts of ineasures to save itself
from the predicament. Major shipbuilders cut their produc-
tion facilities by 40�io (35% for the entire shipbuilding
industry, including smaller shipbuilders and related busi-
nesses), set new rules to control ope.ration rates, formed an '
anti�depression ca~tel, suspended the recruitment of new
~ school graduates, cut wages and curbed overtime work. A
series of drastic meawres, unprecedented in Japanese indus-
uy, was inevitable for corporate survival. ~ ~
While tryi~g to reduce their extra weight, the ship-
builders did not forget to take ~ore.measure, that is,
to expand the non-shipbuilding business - the inclination
toward "breaking with shipbuilding," so to speal.. The
structural change in 1975 was not the first. During the
1950s, managers of some shipbuilders tried seriously to
balance sales equal~y betwcen shipbuilding and land equip-
ment business. Ffowever, during the periad between 1950
and 1975, shipbuilding orders continued to ii~crease, and
, the wpp;y and demand siwation was rather stable as a
whole. Therefore, shipbuilding did provide a stable source
of income. Executives in charge of shipbuilding dominated
business in a shipbuilding firm; while ,those who promoted .
land equipment business �were compelled to submit to
unduly cold treatment. ,
However, shipbuilding firms laid the foundations for
land equipment business in those years through efforts by
the promoters of land equipment business and through ~
business me~gers. This enabled the expansion of land equip-
ment business, which, in wm, reduced the ratio of ship-
building to toWl sales, as stated in the following scction.
Changes in the Earning Ratio
Figures to be given below are comparisons in the salcs
ratios of shipbuilding and land equipment ~usiness of
Japan's seven top shipbuilders between two half-year terms
- the first half of the March 1982 term (April 1, 1981^~
September 30, 1981: the fate term) and the first half of the
March 1975 term (the early term). The seven are Hitachi
Shipbuilding & Engineering (HiWchi Zosen), Ishikawaj~ma-
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rv~a vr r~~.~ni, v.,c v~ra, i
Harima Neavy Industries (IHIj, Kawasaki Heavy lndustries,
Mitwbishi Heavy Indusuies, Mitwi Engineering & Ship�
building, Nippon Kokan and Sumitomo Heavy Industries
(alphabetical order).
In Mitsubishi Heavy IndusVies, shipbuilding accounted
for 1496 and 13nd equipment 8696 in the late term, as com�
pared with 38% and 6296 in the early term.
In_ RHI, the,similar ratio was 30:70 for the late term,
and 37:63 for ihe early term. In the late term, the ratio
of shipbuilding rose to 30 due to sluggish business in land
equipment, while the similar ratio for the~ previous corre-
sponding term was 23, a typical ratio in recent years.
In Kawasaki Heavy Indusvies, the ratio for the late
~ term was 26:74, as agiinst 24:76 for the early term. As
in the case of IHI, the ratio of shipbuilding was higher
than d~ose of other ~~ears because of sta~ant land equip-
ment business. The ratio of the previous corresponding ~
tertr~ was 15:85. During the past 3^-4 years, the ratio of
shipbuilding has been between 10'~6 and 2096, except for the
first hatf of the March 1982 term. Among the seven ~rms,
the ratio of land equipment business is quite high, along
' with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Sumitomo Heavy
Industries.
In Hitachi Zosen, the ratio for the late term was 31:69,
as against 60:40 for the early teRn. The ratio of shipbuild� ,
ing and land equipment was completely reversed.
In Miuui Engineering & Shipbuilding, the ratio for the '
late term was 39:61~, as against 54:46 for the early .term.
~ In the cases of Hitachi Zosen and Mitsui Engineering & ~
Shipbuilding, the ratio of shipbuilding had been higher. than '
~ that bf land equipment until the March 1978 term w�hen
the ratio was reversed.
Their corporate images as leading shipbuilders arc ~
gradually'changing, as the figures show. . . ~
In Sumitomo Heavy Industries, the ratio for the latc '
term was 20:80 (and 15:85 for the mid-1981 terml, a. '
~ against 36:64 for the early term. The reason why the ratio
of shipbuilding was low at this point is that the companv
merged with Sumitomo Machine Indusvy and Uraga Heati�~
Indusuies in 1969.
Nippon Kokan is a steelmaker, rather than a shipbuilder.
In fact, the sales ratio of shipbuilding business in thc letc
term was only 6%. It was such a small percentage that w�e
do not sWte comparative ratios. ~
, From the .above�mentioned comparative ratios. of ship�
building and land equipment business of the seven major
shipbuilders, we can point out the following. ,
Firstly, Mitsubishi~ IHI and Kawasaki have maintained
the shipbuilding ratios of about 2036 during the past three
or four years~ although this may not be true for the first
half of the March 1982 term, because of sluggish land
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~ )NLY
equipment business in th~t half-year period. The con-
tinuance of the non-shipbuilding ratio of about 8096 means
that the policy of "breaking with shipbuilding" is nearing
its end. '
Secondly, as mentioned earlier, Hitachi and Mitwi had
had larger ratios for shipbuilding than land equipment until
fiscal 1976. The ratios were reversed in the following year
and thereafter. Their shipbuilding ratios dropped to 3096 in
the mid-1981 term. The ratio of shipbuilding and land
� equipment in the order backlog was 34:66 for Hitachi and
44:56 for Mitsui. The fall in the shipbuilding share is not
a temporary phenomenon. Althou~gh the corporate names
of Hitachi Zosen (Shipbuilding & Engineering) and Mitsui
Zosen (Engineering & Shipbuilding) carry suong images of
shipbuilders, they may become disserviu to their business
operations before long.
. Thirdly, the shipbuilding ratios of Nippon Kokan and
Sumitomo Heavy Industries range from 596 to� 1996 at the
. highest. Nippon Kokan's main line of business is steelmak-
ing, while that of Sumitomo is precision and construction .
machinery. When they try to expand their business, they
will explore non-shipbuilding areas, including ocean
development. They will probably be the first among the
. seven to "break with shipbuilding."
The business rewlts in fiscal 1981 mean a"declaration
for business recovery" by the shipbuilding indusVy. They
also show that shipbuilders are divided into three business
patterns and that there are moves to change a big current
the shipbuilding industry is following. .
Toward the Final Goal , . ~ .
In 1975 ihe seven major shipbuilders attempted takeoff
for a"break with shipbuilding," and the attempt raised the
share of land equipment business, though slightly. But none
. ~ of them believe that they have completed their structural
chan~e toward "breaking with shipbuilding." The conunts ~
~ of their technological development, medium- and long-term ,
' programs and equipment investment indicate that the ~
shipbuilders are giving priority to the expansion of non-
shipbuilding business.
Stated below are their business prospects, aiming at
increasing non-shipbuilding business. ~
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is not only the leader of the
Japanese shipbuilders but also a big business of ti,. ~^~in-
try, and its product lines are quite diverse. To be noted here . ~
is that many of these products have top shares in the
domestic market. This means that Mitsubishi is the price
leader of these products, which shows iu very suength. The
firm's sales ~ for the annual term ending March 31, 1982~ ~
ue estimated at ~1,600,000 million - the biggest among
shipbuilders .(except for Nippon Kokan, whose shipbuilding
~ share ls very small).
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rvn ~irr~~ ~A~ u:~~. ~~ivi,r
Its product lines cover land~ marine and aeronautic
equ~pment, and it ranks hi~h in the production scale of all
these products. Its sales wiil probably reach ~F2,000,000
million in a few years. Mitwbishi is now placing emphasis
on coal liquefaction technology, atomic energy and other
energy related business, defense-related business and the
production of indusvial robots. The ~rm with a three dia-
mond trade ma~k will retain its high position in japanese
industry in the fuWre. ~
Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Indusvie~, estimates its
sales for the March 1982 term at ~700~U00 million, and
aims to become a~1~000~000 million business in 1983 or
1984. If the aim is achieved~ IHI will be the second
~1,000,000 million business in the shipbuilding indusvy~
following Mitwbishi Heavy Indusvies (excluding Nippon
Kokan~. The medium-range program is supported by land,
maritime and aeronautic equipment business. IHI is giving
priority to the manufacture of engines for F-15, the
nation's next mainstay fghur plane, ocean development
and energy. The firm is stepping up affiliations in tech-
nology with Toshiba Corp. to prepare for the era of
"mechatronics."
The tie-up with the leading elecvic equipment maker
will have great potentials for business growth.
It is noteworthy thatlHl is participating in three of the
12 projects for research and development, which are being ~
conducted under the "re'search and development system
for basic technology for next generation indusvy," design-
~ ed for indusuies to develop high technology with govern-
ment support for use in the 1990s. The three projects con-
cern (a) fine ceramics, (b) high-performance controllable
~ crystal alloy and (c) compound materials. Since all the
12 projects are aimed at unexplored areas of technology,
the participation in such projects may bring great wccess
to the firm. ~
Kawasaki Heavy: Industries estimates its sales for the
March 1982 term at ~750,000 million. I t hopes to increase
the sales to ~1~000,000 million in 1990. The firm has two
suong areas of business - defense-related equipment and
indusvial robots. In the defense field, the ~rm is the chief
contractor for ihe manufacwre of the Defense Agency's
next generation medium�class trainer planes. The contract
will total about ~300,000 million. It is also the biggest
wpplier of wbmarines to ihe Maritime Self Defense Force.
A rise in the nation's defense spending will benefit Kawa-
saki.
The firm is the nation's top wpplier of industrial robots.
The domestic market of wch robou is still small, with 1980
sales being ~78,400 million. The firm estimates its sales
of robots in 1982 at ~7~000 million, and plans to raise the
sales to ~20,000 million in 1984. The firm's robot sales
have risen at an annual rate of about 40% during the past
~
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(ivc years. The Japan Industri~l Robot M~nufacturcrs
~ A.sociation estimatos th~t thc natinn's robot s~lc~ will
reach ~290,000 million in 1985 and ~600,000 million
in 1990. The marlcet is not very big. However~ 70�~ of the
indusvial robots manufacwred in the world are now being
operated in Japan. The MinisW of Inurnational Trade
and Industry (MITI) this year began giving help xo develop
intelligent robots. The indusuial robot is a promising prod-
uct in view of these facu.
Indusvial robots now in use are "First Generation
Robots," which are good for repeating jobs to achieve mass
production, such as welding, painting and transporting. The
intelligent robot ihat MITI wants to develop is .~econd
generation robot which would have the fol lowing functions:
1) Sensing function (perception);
2) Openting function (action); and
3) Deciding function (thought).
MITI plans to spend ~30,000 million during the seven-
year period starting this year to develop high-performance
robots. The emergence of new-type robots would ineviWbly
expand the robot market. In this field, Kawasaki Heavy
. Industries is quite promising, and therefore it is quite an
attractive manufacwror. . ~ .
Hitachi Zosen sets its sales target for the March 1982
term at ~440,000 million. As earlier stated, the company's
sales ratio of shipbuilding and land equipment is 31:69.
The company is Vying to improve the business strucwre
in an effort to reduce dependence on shipbuilding. The
efforts the company is making include commercial produc- '
tion of newly developed products, development of basic ~
technologies, expansion of produetion facilities and
development of energy-saving technology.
Hitachi has been active in reducing dependence on ship-
building as it had to do so for wrvival. In 1978 the com-
pany created the Offshore Business Headquarten and
made Osaka Shipya~d (in Sakai) a plant specializing in the
manufacwre of ocean structures~ and Ariake Shipyard also
~ a plant to handle offshore svuctures. This move was
wccessful, and in 1981 the company ranked the world's
Sth largest manufacturer of submarine oil drilling rigs.
To further expand busineu in ocean development and
~ launch full-scale development in the Arctic Sea~ the com-
pany included ncean (icy waters) development in its ten
major projects. It plans to begin work this year to build an
icy water tank to be used for experiment ~t a cost of
~1,500 million.
The company has set shipbuilding, land-based machinery
and offshore structure as its three main business pillars. It
is now trying to set the 4th and Sth pillars to achieve faster
~owth. Candidate lines for the 4th pillar are said to be
general-purpose land equipment, such as heat pumps and
rotary press,s.
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rvR vrr~~.ir?a, a~~., vi~L~
Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding estimates sales for
the March 1982 term at ~F350~000 million and aims ta raise
the sales to ~520,000 million in 1985. As in the case of
Hitachi Shipbuilding & Enginaring, the company is trying
hard to reduce dependence on shipbuilding. It wants to
launch full-scale business in the manufacture of chemical
plants, boilers for power generation and the like, hoping to
develop into a general engineering firm, The tompany is an
early comer to the ocean development indusvy, along with
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. It has already expanded its
business in the field of the manufacwro of offshore oil
drilling rigs, modules, plant barges and ocean engineering.
The company, therefore, appears to be placing emphasis
or ocean developmen! in reducing dependence on ship-
building.
The company has been active in icy waters development.
Since 1975 it has been coriducting vari-
ous experiments usinq an ice force mea-
surinq tvwer built on Lake Saroma in
Hokkaido. In the same year it conclu-
ded a business tie-up arrangement with
Arctec Inc. of the United Stat~:s to re- ~
ceive c]ata and expertise on offshore
engineering, such as ways to recover
oil in icy waters and canputation of ice
force on the offshore structure. The development of
ice-covered sea is. being spotlighted in the world, and
Japan's major shipbuilders are seen as suppliers ot` various
equipment necessary for such development. Tf~us the
development of ia-covered sea is a big area of bus~ness in
the future.
Nippon Kokan is Japan's second largest ste ;!maker,
following Nippon Steel. In Nippon Kokan, shipbuiiding is
under the heavy industry division, and~ therefore, the
situation is different from other shipbuilders. Sales for
fiscal 1980 (Apri1,1980~March,1981) totaled ~1,423,300
million. Of this, the iron and steel division earned
~1~166,000 million, and the heavy indusvy division
~256,700 million, of which land equipment earned
~ ~155,000 million and shipbuilding ~101 ~700 million. Ship-
' building accounted for only 796 of the total sales.
The problem is how Nippon Kokan will diversify its
lines of business to r~educe the high ratio of steel business.
In other words, it is trying to "break with steel business,"
rather than to "br+eak with shipbuilding." It is just impos-
sible for the heavy indusvy division to grow into the size
of the steel division. The question is how much the firm
can reduce the gap between the two divisions.
The firm is now trying to expand business of the heavy
indusvy division, such as energy-related business, steel
plant facilities~ pollution sonvol facilities and floating
platforms. It is Japan'sonly builder of iu b~akers, namely
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"Fuji" and "Shirase." It is also bullding in its Tsu Rescarch
institu.te an icy watcr tank, meaSUring 21.3 m long, 6.0 m ~
wide and 2.0 m deep, which is equipped with a refrigerating
unit capable of cooling the tank to -25�C~ the freezing
point of sea water. The ~1,000 million tank is to be com-
pleted ahead of a similar facility under consvuction by
Hitachi. Therefore, it will be the first unk of its kind in
Japan.
The development of offshore tahnology in the ice-
covered sea is a major pillar for business diversification to
correct over-dependence on steol business.
Sumitomo Heavy Indusuies is also in a situatian differ-
ent from other firms. Sales for the March 1980 term totaled
*225,000 million and those for the March 1981 term total�
ed ~'263,600 million. Sales for the March 1982 term are
estimated at ~280,000 million. The sales ratio of shipbuild- ,
ing during the period ranges from 15% to 1996. The policy
of "breaking with shipbuilding" is advancing fairly well
as in the cases of Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries.
The ratio appears to be in an ideal range.
However, the firm plans to cut the ratio of shipbuilding
further because of special conditions the company's ship-
a~ have. The firm's shipbuilding facilities include a
I G,800~gross�ton building berth at Uraga Shipyard for war .
sh ips and a 210,OOO~gross-ton dock at Oppama Shipyard for .
mer:hant ships. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain high
operation ~aus for shipbuilding facilities. Under the
circumstances, Sumitomo is suiving to expand business
in the manufacture of steelmaking facilities~ precision
~ plastic molding machines, offshore structurcs and other
non-shipbuilding facilities.
The Futurc
The business sVategies of the seven major shipbuilders
to "break with shipbuilding" can be boiled down to the
following three points:
1) To expand the market sharo of favorite or promising
lines in the existing land equipment sector.
2) To enter .the roboti, defense and ocean development
indusvies and develoF new markets.
3) To purwe offensive but flexible policies to readily
meet changes in the business environment and smoothly
carry out the medium-range program.
All the seven major shipbuilders have taken record new
orders, while having record-high backlogs of orders. Thtir
financial situation has recovered. In fiscal 1981 all but
Kawasaki paid interim dividends for the first timo in four
years. At the time of such business ~ecovery, investments
in research and development as well as in plant and equi~
ment are concenvated on non-shipbuilding ~elds. A larger
amount of investment will be made in 1982 than in 1975 ;
when the industry was dominated by the sense of crisis
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ruK urr~~iw~ ua~ urv~Y
creaud by a recession following the first oil crisis.
The moves to "break with shipbuilding," in no way,
mean that the shipbuilders are withdrawing trom shipbuild-
ing business and reluctant to take new shipbuilding orders.
All their efforts are designed to regain a proper supply and
demand situation for the world's shipbuilding industry.
The japanese shipbuilding indusW has come to a tum-
, ing point with all the seven major shipbuilders Wking large- _
scale measures to ~"break with shipbuilding." fiowever~
nothing guarantees that their future will be rosy. When
many Japanese shipbuilders branched out into the fields of
big machinery, plant facilities, bridges and other steel-frame
structures from the 1950s to the 1960s, they met strong
resistance from specialized makers. And, only a few
attained satisfactory financial rewlts, when they entered
the new fields.
If the specific land equipment market a shipbuilder
enters is small~ the entry will cause serious market con-
fusion and fierce price �competition that may make it
dif~cult to make both ends meet. Therefore, the "break- ~
with-shipbuilding" operation by big shipbuilders does not
warrant optimism. But they still will have to challenge new
ventures, because new shipbuilding orders are limited in
volume.
If the major shipbuilders call the expansion of non-
shipbuilding business at the time of the unprecedentedly
serious recession in 1978 an "exodus for survival," they
may call the cuRent operation an "operation to build a
bridge to the 21st cenwry."
~ After having read this article~ many readers overseas
may have a question why the major Japanese shipbuilders
would move toward the same direction. In the writer's
view, the march in the identical direction has been the
source of energy for the fast development of Japanese
indust~y. Irortically, such an industrial behavior means that ,
japanese people or enterprises lack identities.
At the present stage, it is difficult to draw a conclusion
on which of the two - a dash in the same direction by
many businesses or the establishment of identity - is
important. But the latter will probably become more ~
important in the second half of the 1990s.
Experiments in ~ce-Covered Sea [Boxed Item~
To meet the engineering challenge in icy waters, Japanese shipbuilders are
eaqaqed in varioua research and development activities. Zhe follawing is the
excerpt from the report on the "Offshore Development in the Ice-Covered Seas"
published by Mitsui Shipbuilding & Engineering:
~ Mitsui has been carrying out the R& D programs in~ this field with cooperation
of Japan National Oil Corp. and Arctec, Inc. of the United States. The
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experiments were started in 1975 in the Okhotsk Sea off the coast of Mambetsu
in Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan.
For measurement and analysis of ice loac]s, a cylindrical tower, 9.5 meters in
height with a 2.5-meter diameter, later converted to conical shape of 11.4
meters in height and with a diameter of 5.5 meters at the water line, was
erected some 600 meters off the coast.
With a view to finding the optiaium types of structures to be used in ice-
covered seas, various tests have been conducted to study the effects on ice
loac]s with regard to:
1) diameter of colw~ms and ice ~hickness;
2) co~e angle and friction between structure and ice;
3) number of columns, ice orientation and janQaing; and
4) the first-year pressure ridges, both non-consolidated and semm~COnsolidated.
The company's efforts are also made in the tneans of transport in ice-covered
seas which include:
1) high pawered icebreaking ship;
2) iceb reakinq supply boat;
_ 3) icebreakinq barqe with special self-driving devices; and
4) hovercraft and other types of amphibious vehiclea. ~
Overall research and dev~elopment work relating to icebreaking ships is being
carried out, including hull form design for minimwa ice resistance and maximum
maneuverability, ice-resistance propeller design and hull structure design,
taking ice collision force into account.
In additio~ to.resistance tests, self-propelled turning tests and resistance
tests in rigid ice condition, respectively, theoretical work is also beinq
carried out. ~ ~
COPYRIGHT: Diamond Lead Co. , Ltd. 1982
CSO: 4120/218
17
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t'Vh VI'l'l~rlflLl '~.u~. V!\L~l
ECONOMI~
ALUMINUM-REFINING FACILITIES TO BE DISCARDED
Tokyo NIHON K~IZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 4 Mar 82 pp 1, 7
[Text]
- - - - _ _ _ - -
A plan for disposin~ of facilities by the aluminum-refining industry
circles, which are aiming at freeing themselves f~om the serious structural
depression, has been firmed up. On the 5th, MITI will show the Industrial
Structure Deliberation Council Aluminum Sub-Committee (Chairman: Tokyo
University Professor Tadao UCHIDA) a basic plan for the stabilization of th'e
- aluminum-reFining industry (facilities disposal plan based on the Specific
Depressed Industries Stabilization Temporary Measures L,3w), in respose to the
report by the Deliberation Council. According to what was revealed by a
sour~ce concerned on the 3rd, this plan is to the effect that among the ~
facilities with an annual aluminum ingot output of 1,136,000 tons, which
facilities are possessed by six aluminum-refining companies, those for an
annual output of 424,000 tons, accounting for 37.3 percent, will be discarded
(;~.artly frozen) during two years fiscal 1982 and 1983. Among the six
com~~anies,~two are to maintain their present facilities as they are.
During thethree years from fiscal, 1982 to 1984, the aluminum-refining
industry circles can import aluminum ingot without paying any duty (9$ at
present), with an amount equal to the total amount of the facilities to be
discarded or frozen as the limit. However, it is thought that the way for
the re-vitalization of the industry circles will be sti17. thorny.
The aluminum-refining facilities disposal plan, which MITI has been
checking into, is based on the report by the Industrial Structure Deliberation
Council Aluminum Sub-Committee in October last year, and the result matches
the "structure for an annual output of 700,000 tons by domestic facilities"
called for by the report.
According to the source concerned, the largest amount of facilities is
to be disposed of by Mitsubishi Light Metal Industry (Head Office in Tokyo;
President: Yoshio SUZUKI; capital: ~�10 billion). It will dispose of
facilities with an annual output of 160,000 tons at its Naoetsu Plant.
Sho~aa Light Metal (Nead Office in Tokyo; President: Takehiko HAYASHI;
caE~ital: '~17 billion) also will reduce its facilities to less than
half the present amount. Two companies --�Mitsui Aluminum Industry (Head Office
in Tokyo; President: Isao KAWAGUCHI; capital: ~�13,500 million) and Sumitomo
18 '
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Light Aluminum Induetry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Satoshi Beppu;
capita2: ~[18 billion)--will not dispoae of their facilities, as initially
scheduled.
~our Companies To Discard or Freeze Aluminum-Refining Facilities
-
(Commentary) ?iew facilities structures of six aluminum-refining
companies have been firmed up. However, four of them are to discard or
freeze their facilities. Mitsui Aluminum Industry (Head Office in Tokyo;
President: Isao KAWAGUCHI; capit.al: ~13,500 million) and Sumitomo Light
Aluminum Industry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Satoshi BEPPU; capital:
~F18 billion) will retain their present facilities completely.
Mitsui Aluminum is to retain its present facilities because it is
r�e~;arded as ;:af~able of maintaining its international competitive pow~r,for
the reason that it obtains electric power for refining at its Miike Plant
(in Fukuoka Prefecture) by thermal-power generation wi~l~ powder~ed co~l.
Also, Sumitomo Li~ht Aluminum is aiming at surviving through an energy
conversion under its plan for a change from oil-burning to coal-bourning
at the thermal-pc~wer plant operated jointly with Tohoku Electric Power for
its Sakata Plant (in Yama~ata Prefecture).
- - . _ _ _ _ - -
As to the disposal of facilities this time~ it has been decided that
all facilities will be discarded at two plants the Naoets~ Plarrt (in Niigata
Prefecture) of Mitsubishi Light Metal Industry and Omachi Plant (.~.n Nagano
Prefecture) of Showa Light Metal. However, the moves o~ Sumitomo Aluminum
Refining, which is the biggest company of this kind, are also to be notPd.
It has three plants the Isoura Plant (in Ehime Prefecture~~ Toyo Plant
(in Ehime Prefecture), and Toyama Plant (in Toyama Prefecture~~ Among them,
the I~oura Plant is suspending operations completely because of the reduced
production of ingot, and therefore, the possibility is great that the
facilities here will be.completely discarded or frozen. However, the '
company is racking its brains also on the handling of the Toyoma Plant
where the cost is the highest. This company says that "We want to decide
which plant is to be retained,,according to the contents of the stabilization
basic plan." Therefore, it is fluid at present. �
The facilities disposal plan this time will serve as data for th~e
apportienment of aluminum ingot imports free of duty. MITI intends to
decide on frameworks for duty-free imports for the various companies in the
light of the following three points; (l~ The amount of facilities to be
dis~~osed of; (2) the amount of ingot imports; and (3~ the amount of remaining
facilities. It seems that the ~rame.works for duty~free imparts in the
industry c.ircles as a whole will be 393,000 tons in Piscal 1982, and
42?a,000 tons in fiscal 1983 and 1984. The equivalent of the tariffs amounting to
a].ittle more than ~`10 billion annually will cnntribute to the improvement
of the ~rofits among the six refining companies. However, many of the six
aluminum-refining companies are in a state close to excess liabilities;
and, moreover, it is difficult to hope for a rapid rise in the price of
al.uminum, because of the depression in the US. Therefore, it is expected that
it will become difficult to maintain the facilities for 712,OD0 tons,
which are to be retained this time through the industry circles.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
CSO: 4105/81 19
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ECONOMIC
CARDBOARD INDUSTRY FORMS DEPRESSION CARTEL
Tokyo NIIQtEI SANGYO SHIl~UN in Japanese 19 Mar 82 p 13
[Interview with Shinichi Kaizaki, chairman of the Japan Corrugated Cardboard
Industry Association Depression Cartel Preparatory Co~nittee, by Reporter
Hirogami; date and place not specified]
[Text]
- - . _ - -
Corru~ated cardboard industry circles have started to move toward
forming a depression cartel. Both the Japan Corrugated Cardboard
Industry Association, composed of big manufacturers concerned, and
the National Federation of Corrugated Cardboard Industry Associations,
centered on the medium and small manufacturers concerned, have begun
to make preparations th~ough the establishment of their respective
experts committees. The possibility is thus becoming stronger that
in corrugated cardboard industry circles, an "all-industry cartel"
set-up will be established for the first time. This paper asked
Japan Corrugated Cardboard Industry Association Depression Cartel
Preparatory Committee Chairman Shinichi KAIZAKI, concurrently Tomoku
Yresident, about the situation in the industrial circles concerned and
future prospects. (Reporter HIROGAMI acted as interviewer.) �
Question: Why is it that a mood calling for the formation of a
depression cartel has recently come to mount suddenly?
Answer: The situation has become difficult since around the sumQner
of last year. After the beginning of this year, our deficits have
increased still further. The prices of raw materials for corrugated
cardboard have not dropped since the sharp rise in chip prices the
year before last. This has given an impetus to our suffering from
difficulties. Both corrugated cardboard manufacturers and carrugated
cardboard-consuming industry circles had thought that the prices of
raw materials would decline, sooner or later, but the actual situation
is not so. In particular, corrugated-cardboard users strengthened their
rec~uest for the lowering of corrugated-cardboard prices in anticipation
of a decline in the prices of raw materials. Therefore, corrugated-
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cardboard manufacturers have also accepted [the request for] the lowering
of the prices, because of their speculations as to their share (market '
holding) rates, and due to the excessive competition. The prices of
corrug~ted-cardboard sheets have decreased by as much as about 20$, when
compar~d with the level seen around the spring of last year, and those
of corrusated-cardboard cases, by about 10$. The trend, in which
raw material prices are hip,h, while manufactured product prices are low,
has thus become clearer.
Question: The absolute amount of demand has not decreased so greatly.
As far as can be said from seeing the data on demand and supply, it is
also felt that you cannot.be said to be.in~straitened circumstances.
Answer: To be sure, the amount of demand for 1981 decreased by
only~3v or so, compared with.the preceding year's level. From the beginning,
however, the corrugated cardboard industry has had a low rate of payability,
and moreover, the cost burden has become very heavy, accompanying the
doubling of raw material prices. In addition to the thoroughgoing ~
ir,~}~!ementation of economization measures by users, business is beco;ning more
_~:taFTntint. It is ex~ected, therefore, that this year, too, the amount of
dcmand will probably be on the same level as in the preceding year, or
dron from the precedin~ year's level. Since around the autumn of last
year, some companies have been reduced to deficit management. At present,
N0~ of ~~11 m,inufacturers coricerned are probably suffering from a deficit .
In the case of my Company, the interim settlement of accounts for February
::hotoc~d a real deficit. In corrugated-cardboard indu:~try circles, there
are about 300 companies jostling one another. If this situation continues
as is, then some companies will probably go bankrupt.
Question: [ahen will a cartel be formed?
- _ _ .
Answer: To begin with, I want to conduct surveys on 'che situation
concerning the payability of~the manufacturers, affiliat.ed with the
Japan Corrugated-Cardboard Industry Association, and the ~~~eration rate,
thus obtaining necessary data for submitting an application, as quickly
as possible. In order to obtain approval, it is necessary to have
the actual situation understood fully by the Fair Trade Commission
and user industry circles. At the present stage, it is difficult to
say definitely [that a cartel will be formed] from around what~time.
Anyway, my true intention is to carry out Cthe formation of a cartel]
as quickly as possible.
Question: In the case of corrugated cardboard, it is an order-
receiving industry. Therefore, will a production-adjustment cartel,
intended for inventory adjustment, achieve satisfactory effects?
Answer: In the case of big manufacturers, I would like to restrict
the number of days of operation and the length of time for carrying out
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operations through the formation of a depression cartel on the baQ~s of
the Anti-Monopoly Law, and in the case of inedium and small ent~�rprises,
un!i~~r the co-ordination clause based on the Medium and Small Lnterprises
Or;aniza:ion Law. This is an order-receiving industry; thecefore,
it is not felt that excess stockpiles are putting pressure on
man~~ement. Recently, however, there are also many enterprises ~rt,ich
are carrying out production in anticipation of an increase in demand.
Companies concerned will go bankrupt together ur.less they take action for
a cartel. There are no differences at all in the degree of severity,
between big enterprises and medium and small enterprises. I am
fully aware that there are difficulties different from those in the
case or the inventory-adjustment cartel formed as to machine-made paper.
I also intend to explain the special nature of corrugated-boardcard
industry circles to the Fair Trade Commission, taking time.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
~ CSO: 4105/81
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOIAGY
ACCURATE INSTRUMENTATION FOR SAFE FLANT OPERATION
~ Tokyo TECI~IOCRAT in English Vol 15 , No 1, Jan 82 pp 11-19 ~
(Article by Shinsaku Kinugasa, Sales Engineering Division Hokushin-Electric
Works, Ltd.]
(Text ] 1. Introduction
An important responsibllity placed on modcr,n technology
is that of preventing serious industrial accidents ~riginating
in plants. Particularly in Japan, a country of high population
density, where such accidents could result in a major catastro-
phe, a variety of ineasures are being devised as a pressing
national need.
This paper describes the means of assuring plant safety,
laying particular emphasis on the use of appropriate instru-
mentation among the measures being taken for accident
prevention. Proper instrumentation is regarded as an effective
means not only of assuring the safety of plants but also of
maintaining quality and production. This is achieved by
allotting instrumeatation the task of monitoring and controlling
normal plant operation and detecting and/or taking effective
- countermeasures in the event of abnc;mal conditions occurring.
In detail, instrumentation for safety must include methods
for intensified types of interlo;:ks and emergency shutdowns
(widely used in convention~~! instrumentation), exceptional
control functia~ to cope ~�rith low-probability emergencies,
increasing the reliability of ineasurement and control instru-
ments, introducing online diag,~ostic techniques for industrial
equipment, and adopting rational man-machine systems suitable .
for safe operation. Also required, to secure the above system
functions are effective training for operators and management
for maintenance of the instruments.
These problems are too extensive to deal witli briefly.
This paper therefore, covers only the problem of how to
provide safety instrumentation systems; emphasis being laid
on techniques for detecting abnormal conditions.
' l.stent ttets Muliiplicativ~ ~tet~ Run away ~tete
Tim~
X
t Cstertroph�
No ch~np~ in ChanpN fn ttat~ vsri~bl~t/ Shutdoun
ttat~ ver(ablK eontr.oll~Dl~ by ~hutdoun In~ff~ctiv~
Fig. 1. Abnormal State in Time Process ~
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rvn vrr�.~r~a. ...y... v,~..~
2. Normal and Abnormal Operation in Plants
Machines and apparatus within an industrial environment
are regarded as operating normally when they are running
as originally planned. Abnormal operation results in a decrease
in production, a drop in product quality, and on occasions
accidents. To secure safety, it is necessary to detect abnormali-
ties as early as possible, and promptly take appropriate counter-
measures.
There aze many levels of abnormalityl ) One level may
denote slight abnormality, not affecting overall plant operation.
Another may denote a state for which, when detected, it is too
late to do anything. Fig. l outlines abnormality gradings.
In se.rvice, plants generally deteriorate as the materials
of which they are made are gradually affected over time by
abrasion, fatigue and corrosion. In many cases this gradual
deterioration may not be readily apparent, but be a latent
source of accelerated degeneration in the future. If deterioration
progresses so far as to cause abnormality of state variables,
this abnormality can form excessive stress and thereby acce-
lerate deterioration. A self�propagating state occurs, multiplying
the rate of deterioration and rapidly aggravating the situation,
ultimately resulting in a major failure.
The process of hidden (dormant) deterioradon generally
takes a fairly long, time. Some gFades of trouble directly lead
to the self-propagating state without passing through a dormant
stage. Since an accidental failure or an excessive disturbance
can lead to this self-propagating "chain reaction," detection
of trouble in the early stages, followed by prompt action, is
very important in securing the safety of the plant.
3. Disaster Generating Process - Self-Propagation of
Abnormality3),a).
There are vazious generating patterns for disasters in plants.
In some cases, pressure or temperature in a container can
rise excessively, resulting in a fracture or explosion. In others,
despite temperature and pressure complying with design
standards, inner material defects car~ cause a sudden fracture.
In general, the common denominator in these piant disasters
is that, in the final stage, abnormality is dramatically increased
by the multiplicative effect of several factors leadi~ig to a
disaster.
Disasters occur by chance; failure of components including
~uxiliary apparatus, energy supplies, and measuring and cuntrol
~ instruments, Sisturbances sucl~ as misoperatiun, power failure,
sudden changes in the quality or quantity of charged materials
and changes of load, acts of God such as earthquakes or lighten-
ing, or fire spreading from a neighboring location. Develop-
ments in the ~nal stages may be so rapid tliat disasters are
effective(y instantaneous.
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Let ~us take a presaure vesael for example. If one of the
bolts which secures the end plate to tlie cylindrical vessel
breaks, an increased tension is applied to tlie other bolts. Tliis
aauses theaa bolts to sucoessively break,
bursting the end plate
M~nlpuutlrq ~ Fwdb~ok ~
v~ri~bl~
u/ xr Pl~nt pl =i
� x ~ / p= s~ �
/
~
~ ~
~ ~
� u, x� P,~ s n,
St~t~ v~rl~bN SrNkdown Brpkdown
(ftr~) prob~bliity
~ o~a.i.: (rl funa~on
output '
Fig. 2. Disaster Genereting Procesa
~D
. T~mp~?~tur~ ~IV ~ ,
C/ .
i ' .
B \
~III ~
A 1
~.~~?11 1
? ~
' S~t v~lu~
� O " ,
I ~
~III
. `
\ � .
` Tim~
Fig. 3. Different Measures Against Abnormal State With
Time
Eig.2 shows the "chain�reaction" process. Failure modes
(such as leakage, cracks, and trip of rotation or operation)
uccurring in a plant or its components, auch as auxiliary
. apparatus and measuring and control instruments~ can all be ~
.represented by symbols as follows. The probability of break-
down j occurring in time dt is Pjdt. Tlie failure probability
function Pj is a complicated nonlinear function of state
. variable x of tlie particular plant. Thus,
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Pj=Pj/xt ~x2 . . . . xn~t/
If failure z occurs, state variable x of the plant changes,
causing Pj to change through a feedback reaction. In other
words, variations in the state variable caused by failure can
result in excessive stress, successively inducing other break-
downs and rapidly leading to a serious situation.
The state in the period in which x can be returne~! to
0(the standard value) by manipulating variable u, i.e., tf~e
cuntrollable time duratiun, is called off control. This state
includes the following two cases: one that permits automatic
return to the normal state, and the other tliat, if left as it is,
leads to an emergency state. The operator changes the set
point of speci~c control loops at his own discretion or tries
to accomplish a return to normal through manual operation.
An emergency state is when state variable can be returt~ed
to the safe area by manipulating variable u. If this is impossible,
a disaster occurs. If the change of x due to z and u can be
expressed (as it can for most cases) in the form
xj=xj(U/ exp aj/z~.z2. zm,c~i,u2. url t (2)
the situation is regarded as an emergency when
aj/z~z2....zm.ui.ir2... . u~/ 6 u ~
4 7 ~ ~ y OI
C o E y ~ ~ qC ~'o -a� M ~ c ~ � .
> L ~ e ~0 {c~ gC ~ ~0 � C ~j ~ 4C
� O q O O .r-N q � ~ ~ p~ j{
Q q O 0 d > O W O> Y W m U~ W
~ .
~
~i o M
O r. p
a~ Q ~
a ~ g .
" ~j
C~ ~g O P~ O
V C 0 .S q ~ ~
~N ] . 9
~ Z o E ~ i ~ ~ .
> 0 3 ~ ~
E c ~ c~ R~'
. (q ~ H ~ N ~ LL m Z D LL 2 Z J G Z
~ - .
O j!
H
` p n ffi
O C C C N m
m
~0 a c o 'r4 'u m E o
~ ~ a e ~C ; 0 ~ ~ 4 Lt ~ .
~ a a ~I 7 C G ~ N ~
~ g ~ ~$k~i$~~,;~~ ~ g~ �t
. ~ � " i : s $ ~ � ~ ~ E~ ~ ~ n a
d ~'a c 5 E'Y A A�~ �!9 a~ v v o ~ n
~ ~ d J c~ O 2 4 O i O O O O I N Q Q Q Cg c~
5~
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Note that although the programming language level.has been
greatly heightened, the computer architecture level remains
unchanged. This situation increaaes the burden on software
- to a more and more undesirable extent. (See Fig. 3.)
1-3 Causes and Results of Semantic Gaps ~
This section analyzes the causes of the semantic gaps dis-
cussed in the preceding section and discusses the adverse effects
of the gaps. This task is accomplished on the basic requirements
for a user-assumed abstract machine and a desirable computer
architecture while comparing the von Neumann type archi-
tecture with the idea of the recently advanced programming
languages.
t.3.1 Processing Principles
(a) Deterministic Logic vs Nondeterministic Logic
Von Neumann type computer$ premise a deterministic logic.
However, an advanced information processing procedure reflect-
ing a man's thinking process or creative activity cannot generally
be _�xpressed by a sterotyped algorithm but by a non-determi-
nis:ic logic~2~. Weapons indispensable for advanced data pro-
cessing are a nondeterministic logic and a heuristic logic. If
iluse are absent, an overhead of reflecting the nondeterministic
I~~~ic upon a deterministic logic is produced thus causing a
semantic gap. Besides, procedures such as those in pattern
recognition require processing involved in ambiguity~21>
Frum now the importance of a tec}inique for processing am-
biguity will increase. '
(b) Control Flow vs Data Flow.
ln a von Neumann type computer, data is processed accord-
ing to a control flow which is subordinate to the control flow
of instructions. However, the recent trend toward parallel
processing and functional languages has proved the superiority
of dats flow for describing and controling parallel processing~3~.
The proof is a conclusion that since parallelism and asynchron-
ization are solely determined by data dependency, casting
spotlights upon data dependency is more advantageous. ln a
current computer, the burden of detecting a parallel processing
possibility from instructions (executed according to a control
flow) through their data dependency and of guaranteeing its
asynchronization are left to the system software and user. The .
execution environment of the computer is based upon the
control flow. This situation is a typical semantic gap. ~
(c) Sequential Proceaaing vs Parallel Processing:
A processing principle of von Neumann type computers is
sequential processing. Jobs generally contain routines which
can be processed in parallel. However, since today's computers
and languages are based on the von Neumann model, these jobs
cannot be expressed as they are but their straight forward ex-
pressions must be converted to sequential alogorithms. It is .
desirable to naturally reflect the procassing characteristics of
,
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jobs upon the execution environment. From this point of view,
the principle of parallel processing is superior becauu it im�
poses fewer restrictions.
t �3�2 Numerical Processing
Computers were originally developed for scientific compu-
tation. However, ti~eir numerica! processing features contain
fundamental problems.
(a) Fixed Precision vs Variable Precision:
Present computers provide only the fixed precision feature ~
because of hardware restrictions. TherefQre, when a user-
requires a certain precision (for example, 50-digit precision is
required for computation related with nuclear power), he must .
program a prec:sion feature of his own. At this time, he must
or' course confiont the problem of hardware dependency. As
can be seen, even this kind of fundamental requirment is not
satisfied by present computers. The harmful effects of fixed
precison are subtract errors, truncation errors, and rounding
errors. The variable precision feature is indispensalile for avoid-
in~~ these.~s~~6>
(b) Error Free Computation:~6~
Present computers are based upon ~xed length words as
described before. This also results in subtract, truncation and
rounding errors being intrinsic to the computers: The.con-
sequences of these errors are that numeric data specified by
users cannot be expressed correctly in the computers and that
an effective precision cannot be obtained. Therefore, for ex-
ample, a user trying to solve quadratic or matrix equations muat
first study the theoiy of error, accomplish er:or analysis, and
carefully program the results of these efforts to obtain correct
answers. This means that a series of steps not central to the
problem at hand is required, that the execution efficiency
decreases, and that the programming overhead increases. The
situation remains the same when a high-level language is u~ed.
To get rid of fnis semantic gap, a computer feature assuring any
number of effective digits (precision) is indispensable. The
feature also contributes greatly to the improvement of fraction
computation.
Even in the numerical processing fietd where von Neumann
type computers are in their element, a semantic gap due to the
low-level computer architecture still exists as seen above.
1-3-3 Data Environment
This section discusses the mechanisms related with data types
the importance of which is increasingly recognized in the pro-
gramming language world.~l~ ~4) (S) (7) (8) (9)
(a) Data Dependency vs Data Independency:
The concept of data independency pertaina to data base pro-
cessing. Data independency means that application programs
accessing a data base need not be modified even if attributes
- and structures of the data base are modifled (for example, if
integer type data is changed to floating point type data). Unless
this characteristic is provided, a great overhead in modifying
programs must result. The minimum assurance for avoiding
t~is requires the programs to exclude instructions accessing
data structures or affected by~data attributes. In a computer .
. 52
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architecture providing this assurance, tags and descriptors
should hopefully be used; resulting in there being no more
information concerning data defmitions than the tags carried
by the data itself. The architecture guarantees complete data
independency by this means, greatly contributing to program
development, maintenance, and reliability. The above concept
is one of the basic programming language concepts of today.
(b) Non-Self Data Type Defmition vs Self Data Type De-
finition:
A result of recent programming language development clearly
,indicates that data types are the starting point of programming.
However, there is no distinction between data and instructions
nor assurance of data types in present computer systems. For
this reason, software reliability cannot be guaranteed during
execution, data environment errors cannot be checked, and
debugging functions are meager thus resulting in She creation
of a large type II semantic gap.
The above problem can be solved if each data cell contains
information indicating its type (attributes and structure). This
self-definition capability is also a factor indispensable for the
assurance of data independency described in the previous
section. Furthermore, it may help the solution of the problem
described in section 2-3-2 since it facilitates the expression of
variable length words. The importance of the capability ha~
long been recognized but is now reviewed from a new angle
urged by apprehensions resulting from present software prob-
lems and proposals for remedial action made by recent pro-
gramming languages. The most basic principle in a future
computer architecture will be this data type self-definition
capability. Also, the data environment must be strongly sup-
ported to fill the gap between the present computer azchitecture
and the compuation model of a programming language.
1-3-4 Addressing and Non-Numerical Processing ~
(a) Linear Addressing vs Structural Addressing:
A von Neumann type computer provides linearly addressable
storage space so that data with complicated structures and
~ variable length data must be copied by instructions to the linear
space for access by instructions. It is a fatal semantic gap that
the storage system cannot copy the data structures by itself,
since the work load is placed on user or system software thus
depriving programs .of productivity, causing coding errors, and
hindering programming abstraction. The information hiding
concept (for eliminating the need for knowing physical data
object formats) described in section 2-2-2 gives a remedial
measure in this regard, so does the data type self-definition
capability (tags and descriptors) described in section 1-3-3.
(b) Address Addressing vs Content Addressing:
The most intimate and trite semantic gap is the one related
to the data access method. It has long been recognized that
for a data base processing data access by content (content
addressing) is far superior to data access by address (address
addressing). Although the basic principle of the former is
relatively simple, because it encounters the difficulty of gener-
alizing output formats, its realization is still awaited despite
its popularity and associated lively discussion. However, the
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. . .
importance of content addressing (as well as associative pro-
cessing) for solving the semantic gap will increase as future
computer applications proceed to sophisticated data base
prooessing. Recently, a concept extended from the concept
of content addressing and called context addressing has been
_ proposed. This concept aims at automatic access according to
contextual meanings. This function is expected to minimize
the semantic gap inherent in data base processing and is thus
attracting keen attention.
1-3-5 Capability
Von Neumann type computers completely lack features
related to capability and protection. This fact means that they
do not basically assure system reliability. For this reason,
they have difficulty in sufficiently guaranteeing security, which '
is a more important consideration than protection.
(a) , Non-Capability Addressing vs Capability Addressing:
Capability addressing assures that only the authorized pro-
cess correctly accesses user-defined data structures through
authorized operations. Present computers do not have this
concept but provide only simple protection features functioning ~
on main storage blocks. They entrust the main responsibility
for reliability to users, who have therefore to prepare various
check procedures and systems which are not essentially related
~ with the algorithms of their problems. This situation is another
semantic gap caused by the low level computer architecture.
(b) No Data Type Check vs Data Type Check:
As repeatedly stated, von Neumann type computers com-
pletely neglect functions to support a data environment. Their
architecture does not prepare a means to assure the reliability
of software during its execution. Hence a semantic gap arises
between this architecture and the notion that provision of
complete data type check functions contributes greatly to the
enhancement of software system reliability, debugging effici-
ency, and program productivity. These functions support the
data type self-definition capability described before and check:
(1) Whether a process has an access right.
(2) Whether an operation and a data type are authorized.
(3) Whether an attribute (e.g., a value range) defined by a
data type is violated (exceeded).
Unless the above functions are provided at the architecture
level, they have to be provided by the programmer or system
software (mainiy compilers). The responsibility, for providing
the functions is an annoying overhead on each programmer or
compiler and produces an extremely adverse effect upon the
system's execution efficiency. These constraints are the results
of the semantic gap.
2. Sematic Gapless Computer Arch~tecture
Based upon the analysis in Chapter 1 of computer architec-
tures, causes of semantic gaps, and their results, this chapter
discusses current approaches to a computer architecture with
fewer semantic gaps. ~
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2-1 Peerequisites for Semantic Gaplesa Computer Architecturc
This section rounds off the prerequisites (i.e., needs and
seeds) for a semantic gapless computer computer architecture
and their conceptions.
2-1�1 Needs
Needs for a semantic gapleu computer architecture have
repeatedly been described in Chapter 1. The needs derive from
the conception that in the current rush into the personal com-
puting age, a computer with bare~ mere, and superficial high
performance (high speed) does more hazm than good. [n
today's societies filled with huge amounts of information, the
most Important thing is to solve software problems (problems of
reflecting men's intellectural activities upon computer systems).
The solution requires good computers but not computers such
as the above.
It can be broadly asserted that a computer architecture pro-
viding a good software environment and powerfully assuring
productivity and reliability should be the , next generation
computer a~chitecture.
2-1-2 Seeds
A semantic gapless computer architecture can grow from two
seeds. One is the hardware technology level now typically
represented by VLSI technology whlch is suf~cient to realize
the features described in Chapter 1. At the present level, the
reserve power brought forth by the VLSI technology should ,
be directed not to the pursuit of higher computation speeds
but to the dissolution of semantic gaps. Although a satis-
factorily synthetic methodology for dissolving them has not
yet been established, establishment of inethods for dissolving
particular ones is fairly promising and progress has been made ~
in the theory of its featurea. The seeds of a semantic gapless
computer architecture are VLSI technology and a theory
supporting software engineering, programming languages, and
a computer architecture synthetically.
2-t-3 Basic Concepts ~
As outlined in the previous two sections, a semantic gapless
computer architecture has its prerequisites. Future computer
systems will generally be used with high level languages. There- .
fare~ the use of these languages (i.e., abstract data type lan-
guages) in the above architecture is premised in the following
discussion. Besides these, functional languages are being spot- ~
lighted but their full�scale realization will require much time
because of the difficulty of their immigration to the present
environment.
~?s described in section 1�2�3, sample attempts have already
hecn made to fill the semantic gaps between programmers and
rrogramming languages (e.g., mcdularity, data type abstraction,
parallel processing description capability). The greatest ob-
ic~tive from now is to attain a reliable and efficient exeaution
environment by consolidating the progressive and superb con-
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~~ptions of these new languagea lnto a computer architecture.
Approaches to this objective dlffer fundamentally from those
toa~ard the attainment of a convendonal high-level language
machine which orientates about a particular von Neumann
cype high~level language and thua is a von Neumann type com-
puter. Only the basic concepts consolidated as above can
truly be universal and indispansable for mechanisms of future
computers. .
The design of a future computer architecture requires op-
cimum allotment of roles to hudvvare technology and software
cechnology. Present computers represented typically by von
Neumann type computers pay no concern to factora necessary
in the software world. The fact that these computers are now
tlie mainstream would perhaps frighten anybody.
2-2 Methodology for Semant~c Gaplees Computer Architectun
In the course of progress of an information-oriented society,
software has long been playing the leading role of intellectual
production activities. From the viewpoint .of ~the current pro-
gramming methodology, the so-called "high-level" languages
such as FORTRAN, COBOL, and PL/I used at present give rise
~ to the doubt: "How can they be at a high level?" because they
cannot answer "Yes" to the following questions: ~
(1) Can .program expressions be logically structured?
~ (2) � Can problems be expressed using the concept of data
abstraction? ~
~ ( 3) Are users freed from describing low level procedures
~ . ~.~�hich are basically irrelevant to their problems solution'~
1-~) Can parallel processing and its synchronization be des-
; ribed?
Has due consideration been paid to automatic pro-
gramming (e.g. for checking the eligibility of a program)?
(6) Is it unnecessary for programmers to consider hardware
characteristics (word length~ internal expression, precision)?
(7) Are the programming methodology and the program de-
sign compatible with the computer architecture?
(8) Are the roles of the compil~er essential to the reduction of
the semantic gap between the external architecture (problem
expression level) and the internal architecture (execution level)?
Positive answers to these questions will lead to a tide of
pn~gramming languages~ that is, structured or abstract data type
languages.
(a) Abstract Data Type Architecture: �
An approach to a computer architecture which strengthens
functions to express and manipulate data structures and attri-
butes is introduced below. The objective of the approach is
~ common to various other approaches to a high-level computer
architecture for improving a fundamental defect of a von
. ~eumann type computer. �
The above functions provided by the so called "high-level"
languages such as FORTRAN and ALGOL cannot help being
found wanting. They bury the expreasion and manipulation in
program algorithms thua providing an obatacle to structured
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. ~ ~
software design. Besides, very few current computers have a
standard data structure manipulation function. The least of
these computers barely support the "stack structure" indispen-
sable for controlling the program execution environment. Re-
consideration of this situation has recently awakened recogniton
of the importance of data structures. To renew the basic
programming method, structured programming languages auch
as PASCAL, CLU, and ALPHARD employ the concept of
"program = data structure + alogrithms" meaning that defining
data structures and attributes is as important to a program as
defming algorithms. They provlde language specifications
~ requiring data structures and attributes to be defined before
describing algorithms which manipulate the data. This is the
philosophy of structured programming. An extension of this
philosophy allows procedures manipulating the data structures
to be defined in addition to the structures and attributes. By
this feature, many errors which could conventionally be de-
tected only during program execution can now be detected
during program compilation. This feature is called capsulation
of data structures and operatione.
On the other hand, an application increasing in importance
is data base processing of ~the non-procedure. This processing,
which 'is one of the weakest goints of a von Neumann type
. computer, executes procedures manipulating data structures.
data structures.
As seen above, improvement of system efficiency requires
provision of:
(1) Data structure expression and manipulation capability
(2) Data independency (extensive separatian of data attri-
butes from instruction attributes)
(3) Management of variable length data by the architecture
In conclusion, functions to be attained by a data structure-
oriented high-leve~ computer architecture are:
(1) Supporting structured storage space instead of linear stor-
age space for the advanced data structure expression capability
(2) Extensively separating data from instructions
(3) Providing advanced data structure manipulation instruc-
tions
These may be attained through the use of tag and descriptor
concepts. Approaches to the attainment will be fascinating
since t?~ese functions supersede the basic data processing func-
tions of'the operating system of a high-level language machine.
3. Epilogue
The basic architecture of today's computers was established
decades ago. At that time, important system techniques sup-
porting the systems (e.g., multl-programming, multi-procesaing,
virtual storage, TSS, network architecture, and data base) were
not known. Frankly speaking, computer development staffs
must have been unable to foresee how the utilization of com-
puter systems would change and their applications would
expand. To cope with this uncertainty, they set the computer
architecture (machine instruction set) at a very low level and
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rva~ vrr~~.ir.a, v...~, v~~a.~
mainly pursued universality to satisfy all needs, instead of
' paying the "high price"of coping with developmental difficulties.
This approach must be compulsory when things are unknown,
but entails the construction of huge software upon the low-level
architecture, which is the biggest cause of today's software
crises.
The crises mean that there is a great gap between the image
of system designers about the design of a system and its actual
computer architecture. They also mean that software is more
and more complicated though hardware is simpiified. For
example, the objects of hardware design have shifted from
gates (basic transistor circuits) through register transfer modules
(RTM: IC or MSI) to processor memory switches (PMS: LSI) .
~ while greatly improving the productivity, maintainability, and
reliability of hardware. The present computer architecture level
corresponds to the gate design level. At this level, software de-
velopment must confront a great many difficulties and requires
craftsman-like skills. However, to cope with the processing
overhead caused by abnormally enlarged system and application
software, computer manufacturers have mostly been striving
for the improvement of processor and memory cycle speeds
instead of striving for the improvement or even modi~cation
(addition of instructions not conflicting with the architecture)
= of the weakest point (low-level architecture). (For example,
since its introduction the processing speed of the IBM system/
360 and 370 has been increased 100 times under the same
~ architecture.) This approach would have been a rather natural
selection under the two conditions; the rapid progress of semi-
conductor technology and the difficulty of developing bulky
~ and completely new software. However, a new environment
has recently been created for fundamentally reviewing the
computer architecture level, as follows:
(1) From various experiences of system and application soft-
~ . ware~ design and implementation, the recognition of software
features which should be supported with at the architecture
level has been strengthened.
(2) High-performance mini-and microcomputers to be de-
veloped from now will not be restricted by existing software
properties, and their architectures can be established relatively
freely. They will expediently employ high lsvel architectures
to reduce their total system devleopment costs.
As summarized above, this paper explained the present
� situation of computer systems synthesized under the concept
of semantic gaps and considered their solution.
Retercnces:
(1) Myera, G.J., "Advancp in Computer Architectura", John Wiley
~ Sona, Nea York. [ 1978] .
(2) Chohen, J., "Non-Deterministic Algorlthma", Computing Surveys,
Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 79-94, [ 19'79] .
(3) Treleaven, "Exploiting Pro~am Concucrency in Computing Syr
tems", Computer. Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 42~9, (1979).
(4) Wulf. W.p:, Trenda in the Design and Implementatlon of Pro~am-
ming Languagea", Computer, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 14-23, [1979].
~
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(S) Goto. E., ot al., "FLATS, A Machine for Numerkai~ Symbolic and
Aaoclative Computln~", Proc. of the Sixth Mumd Sympodum
on Computer Architecture, pp. 102-110, [ 1979] .
(6) Saksmuta, K., et,l., "A New Approsch to an Adapdve Computer
- M Automatic Recovery Mechani~m to Prevent the Occuaence
of Subtract Ertors", Proc. of the Sixth Annual Symposium on
� Computer Architecture, pp, 31-41, [1979).
(7) lliffe, J.K., "Basic Machine Principles", Macdonald, London
[ 1972j .
(8) Shankar. K.S., "Data Structure, Type, and Abatractions", Com-
puter. Vol. 13. No. 3, pp. 67-77. (1980] .
(9) Giloi, W.K. and Berg. H., "STARLET-A Computer Concept Based
on Ordered Sets as Ptimitive Data Typet�, Proc. of the Second
Mnual Symposium on Computer Architecture, pp. 201-206,
[1975].
(10) Yau. S.S. and Fung. H.S., "Asaociative Proceeeor Architecture-A
Survey", Computing Surveya, Vol. 9, No. 1~ pp. 3-27, [ 1977J .
(11) Hesly, I.D., L.ipov~ki, G.J., and Daly, K.L., '?ha Architecture of
� Context Addreased Sepnent-Sequential Storagea"; Proc. of AF~S
FJCC,Vol.4l,pp.691-701. [1972].
(12) Kamlbayaahi. N., et al., "HEART: M Operating Syatem Nucleua
Machine Implementated Hy Firmware", Proc. of the Symposium
on Architectural Support for High Level Languages and Operating
Systems. (to appear) (1982].
(13) DiJkstra. E.W., 'The Structure of the T.H.E'-Multiprogramming
, System", Comm. ACM, Vol. 11, No. S, pp. 341-345, (1%8].
(14) Hansen, P.B., "The Nucleus of a Multiprogramming Syatem",
Comm. ACM, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 238-241, [1970].
(15) Lister, A.Mi. and Sayer. P.J., "Hierarchical Monitors", Softwate 8c
Experlence, Vol. 7, No. S, pp. 613~23. [ 1977] .
(16) Wulf, W.A., et al., "HYDRA: The Kernel of a Multiprocessor
Operating System", Comm. ACM, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 337-345,
[1974~.
(17) Eckhouao. R., et al., "Operating System Enhancemont Through
Firmwan", Proc. of MICRO 10, pp.119-133, [ 1977 J.
(18) Stockenberg, J., et al., "Vertical Mi~ation for Performance En-
hanccment in Isyered Hardware /Firmware/Software Syatems",
Computer, Vol. ll, No. S, pp. 35-50. (1978].
(19) Liskov, B.H., 'The Design of the Venue Operating Syatem",
Comm. ACM, Vo1.15. No. 3, pp. 144-156, (1972J.
(20) Hoare, A.R., "Monitor, An Operating Syatem Structura Concept", �
Comm. ACM, Vol. 17, No. 10, pp. 549-557, [19'14J.
. (21) Ichikawa. T., et al., "ARES A Memory, Gpable of Aasociating
Stored Information Throuch Relevancy Estimination", Proc, of
NCC, Vol. 46, pp. 947-954, [ 1977 �
mants", Proc. of COMPSA" 80. (to appear) [ 1980] . , .
(22) Kamibayaahi. N., et al., "Distributed Proceaaing Orlented lnter-
procesa Communication Faciiity for KOCOS", Proc. of the Third
� USA� JAPAN Computer Conference, pp. 80-85, (1978] .
(23) Kamibayashi~ N., et al., "High Level CompUter Architectura Ap-
proaches to Reduce Semantic Gaps; ' Proc. of the COMSAC'80,
(toaPPear) (1989J.
(24) Kamibayashl, N., et al., "SPIRIT: A New Relationel Database
Computer Employing Functionel-Diatributed Multi-Microproces-
aor Configuration", Proc. of the lat International Conference on
Distributed Computing Syatems, pp. 759-771, [ 1979J .
COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketinq Research Co. , Ltd.
CSO: 4120/217
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SCIEN(~ AND TECf~JOLOGY
FIFTH GENERATION COMPUTER PROJEGT
Tokyo TEC~IOCRAT in English Vol 15, No l, Jan 82 pp 29-47
. [Te xt ] l . lntroduction
Full-scale research and development for tl~e fiftl~ generation
computer, wliich will be mucli more humanlike in its capabili-
ties tlian today's state of the art computers, will begin from
April of this year. ~
~ The project team has set the early 1990's as tl~e target
date for completion of a prototype fiftl~ generation computer.
In the process of R&D, interim results of tl~is project will '
be incorporated in such areas as OA (office automation),
CAD/CAM (computer aided design and computer aided manu-
faaturing) and software development. Tl~e project is to be
carried out under tlie leadership of the Ministry of International
Trade and Industry, ~ through joint ~ study by universities,
~ ' research institutes and companies, as well as foreign researchers
and governmental organizations.
~ This project is so ambitious that tliere can be no gu~rantee
of its success at this time. Only the entliusiastic endeavor _
of persons contributing to tlie project can overcome tlie
difficulties whicli will confront their research efforts.
2. What Can the Fifth Generation Computer po?
It is expected that the fifth generation computer will be
able to think, make judgments and sense its environment
mucll as humans do. It is a totally new concept in computer
I~istory. We can briefly outline its functions as follows:
1) (t will be able to see and judge dimension and shape
of objects and discriminato eolor, lt will also Ue able ta aecept
spoken requests and give its results in natural language. .
2) It will liave tlie ability to propose a}~propriate metliods
of solving specialized problems. For example, if supplied
witl~ the medical l~istory of a patient, it could consult its
reservoir of inedical information and advise a physician on
the precautions and possible treatment of tlie case in question.
3) When a user states his final objective and outlines a
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wurking process, the computer will be able to program itself
to achieve that objective.
4) Tlie computer will describe the appropriate working
process according to the specific requirements of a given job.
~ 5) It will be able to detect and remedy problems witliin
itself. .
Professor Tohru Motooka, chairman of the Preparatory
Study Committee for the Fifth Generation Computer, summa�
riaed in `"The Proceeding of International Conference of Fifth
Generation Computer Systems"� the goals of the computer
project as follows:
1) To increase the levels of computer intelligence as well
as their affinity for cooperation with man.
The five human senses can fulfill their functions only when
backed up by the knowledge necessary to understand the
information obtained through them. In order to raise the
levelsof computer intelligence and increase their affinity for
cooperation with man, it is absolutely essential to provide
these computers with knowledge related to their respective
fields of application and the means for putting the'se to
practical use. It will also be necessary to develop a computer
equipped with associative inference, and learning functions
to process that knowledge more effectively.
Such requirements can be met by improving man-machine
interface, and further researching understanding patterns such
as speech, voice, grapliics, images and objects, tl~e comprehen-
sion of daily language, and knowledge bases.
2) To process the ability to act on belialf of human beings
as well as tlie ability to assist man in tlie dcvelopment of
unknown fields. �
So that man and computers will be better able to sl~are
the burden of work related to environmental changes in our
society, such as energy conservation and problems related
to the aged etc.; the intelligence level of computers will have
to be increased to the extent where they can comprehend '
' the environment. So as to expand the capabilities of our
. sensory organs with . the aid of computers; development of '
sensor technology, and functions such as pattern collating
~ abilities where a computer is connected to these sensors to
'extract the distinct'ive features of what is sensed, as well as a
' ~ parallel processing ability for real time piocessing is necessary.
3) To enable various forms of information to be made
readily and easily available when necessary. ' .
The information available through present inFormation
processing systems is highly limited with respect to the kinds, .
amounts and forms of infarmation we come in contact with
in our society. It is necessary to reduce tlie gap and facilitate
instant access to a greater amount and wider variety of informa-
tion. It is also important to develop a means of access which �
enables the easy and accurate retrleval of information needed
at that time. Also important is a support system for clarifying
the many vague requests made in the real world and essentia(
' Tn;, article mainly refers to the proceeding metioned.
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technology for enzbling computers t~ be ap~?lied to non~
standardized jobs such as CAD and decision mak~ng suppott .
rystems. ~
Computer networks which are capable of accessing dis-
tributed data bases, and knowledge bases and capable of
understanding the meaning of questions and giving answers
are also important.
4) Acquisition of new perceptions by simulating unknown
situations.
It is expected that we will be able to acquire knowledge
of unknown situations by means of large scale simulations
in a variety of ~elds such as science and technology, manage-
ment, administration, and society. Through realization of
ultra-high-speed computers using high�speed devices and parallel
processing, precise simulation will be made possible in fields
where simulation has been impossible to date.
From the standpoint of the ~ user, fifth generation com-
puters should function as enumerated below: ~
1) Easy to use functions capable of being utilized even
without professional knowledge.
Systerris of this kind should be equipped with
(a) ~ functions for the inputting and outputting of informa-
tion by way of sentences, speech and voice, graphics, images
~ and the like,
(b) functions for the processing of information in a ~
conversational manner by means of daily la~iguage and
graphs, and '
~ . (c) functions for storing common knowledge as well as
ones capable of utilizing the specialized knowledge for each ~
field of application. ~
2) Human substitute functions capable of judgment and �
decision making.
Ideally, judgments involving logic should be left up to the
computer while the data necessary for important decision
makings, is provided to the user.
The following abilities should be developed.
(a) functions which enable automatic retrieval of related
information out of vast amounts of stored data in response
to inquires,
(b) functions which enable conclusions ~to be drawn from ~
inferences based on stored data when an unknown problem
is given, and ~
. . (c) functions capable of learning and storing for sub-
sequent use solutions to new problems.
3) Functions capable of flexible configurations applicable
to a wide range of jobs. .
ln order to be able to freely select efficient system confi8ura:
tions responsive to various nonatandardized jobs in a wide .
variety of applied flelds, the following are required:
(a) functions capable of constructing a system optimum
for needs in question,
(b) funetions capable of handling large-scale computation
procxssing and management of a large quantity of data as ~
desiced, and
(c) functions that can eastly be upgraded on a building
~ block system to meet increased jobs.
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~
4) Functions for facilitating programming.
Effective utilization of accumulated software and improve-
ment of software productivity require:
(a) functiona enablir.g a computer to write and modify
its own programs,
(b) functions enabling a computer to judge and process
matters of commori sense without instructions from man,
and
(c) functions able to cope easily with different types of
computers as well as additions to existing equipment.
5) System functions which are reliable and can be used
expediently.
From the standpoint of system configurations, the foIIowing
are necessary: ~
(a) compact system functions having higher cost per-
formance ratios,
(b) system functions capable of sophisticated distributed
processing between distant points,
(c) highly reliable functions such as, functions able to
recover automatically and minimize the adverse effects of
mal�functions, as well as functions to facilitate verification,
and system functions of high maintainability, and
(d) sophisticated functions to protect secrets.
3. Why ls the Fifth Generation Computer Necessary ?
The idea of fifth generation computers sprung from recon-
sideration of conventional type computers which are based
on the von Neumann model. In the early days of computer
development hardware was so exponsive that designers tried
to minimize production costs. These early machines were
designed around the sequential control of stored program
system as proposed by von Neumann in 1946. Designers tried
to minimize the functions of computers and to use them at
a high rate of efficiency to achieve better cost/performance
ratios. Accordingly, today's computers have defects from the
standpoir~t of recent technological developments in the field.
These defects are:
1) Poor Ability in Non-numerical Data Processing
Today's computers are designed mainly for c~ying out
numerical calculations irrespective of whether they are used for
scienti~c or business purposes, and have a minimi~ed function
to process characters or image data and the like.
Today's computers are not equipQed with the necegsary
functions to process non-numerical data such as sentences,
symbols, speech and voice, graphics, and images, etc. However
- computers are expected to be developed w}iich will be capable
of associative and inference p:oces:>ing such as pattern matching
functions which deserve the name of artificial intelligence.
Computers such as ~these will be required to widen the areas
in which information processing can applied, diversify
tl~e forms of processing, and realize u~formation systems
that have a hig}t level of intelli~;ence. Computers with new
architectures are also hoped for w}~ich not only liave increased
65
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V~\ V~ ~ ~4/f1a~ ~/i ~li �
processing capabilities, but also can put to practical use
information management such as data bases and knowledge
bases. Computers with new proc�essing functions are desired
to improve man-machine interface by developing easy�to-use
computers capable of being good assistants for man and to
effectively extend tlie range of the human senses. ~
2) Limitation in Processing Speed and Other Capabilities
~Due to Sequential Control and Linear Memory Model
The performance of conventional computers has been
increased largely through improvements made to their separate
elements, and efforts to improve the system itself have thus
far proven fruitless. However, since the high-speed operation
of elements themselves has a limitation imposed by the speed
of light, combined efforts from the standpoint of both
elements and systems should be made from now on to improve
the performance of computers. One effort made thus far in .
terms of systems is parallel processing. Tltis is not only
essential for large-scale numerical calculation such as partial
differential equations and for simulators for various systems,
but is also needed for speeding up inference and associative
processings. Various parallel control systems should be put
to practical use w)tich include proposed data flow control
that is basically different from conventional sequential control.
Due to the diversification of fields of application and
advancements 'in LSI ~technology, the merits of distributed
processing have come to be looked at in a new light. Distribu-
tion of processing cam roughly be grouped into two catego-
. ries. One is a regional distribution form in which processing
functions and data bases are located near persons in cl~.arge ~
so tliat various resources such as liardware, software, data ~
base and tl~e like can be sliared by many tllrougli communica-
tions tines. The other system comprises distributed functions
whereia processors of different kinds desig~ied for dedicated
uses are connected to each other via higli-speed buses and
the like, tlius replacing a system having a relatively small
number of processors of one kind connected to a common
main memory. The former should serve as a means for realizing
a huge information system designed frem the standpoint of
~ ~ users, and the latter should be put to practical use as a means
for realizing systems which meet diversified demands.
3) Software Crisis - Increase in Software Cost
The cost of software development is ever increasing, and
many difficulties have ~een encountered in improving the
productivity of such. Wliile architecture lias been proposed
wl~ich can accept high-level languages wi~l~ ease, aiid attempts
I~ave gradually been made to change ' OS into firmware,
emnl~asis is still placed on the utilization of software f~ereto-
fore accumulated, and old and inconvenient arcliitecture
models are followed. Efforts are required to prepare environ-
ments in whicli architecture suited for the new age centering '
around new applied fields or areas can be introduced. When
software can be programmed witli increased productivity as
a consequence, diversi~ed architecture will also be made
possible, tlius opening up prospects for future computer
science and engineering.
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4. (mage and Concept of the Fifth Generation Com-
pu ter
Fifth generation computer systems will be expected to
l~ave tlie following basic functions:
(a) Problem solving and inference functions,
(b) knowledge base management function, and
(c) intelligent interface function.
These functions will be realized by software and hazdware
systems respectively, and will be aimed at maximum scales
and performances such as those which follow:
Tlie problem solving and inference function will be aimed
at a maximum performance of 100M -1 G LIPS*.
The knowledge base management function will be aimed
at performance capable of retrieval of a knowledge base
required for inference within several seconds, witli a core
data base machine having a maximum capacity of 100-
l ,000 GB.
The intelligent interface system will be aimed at making
conversation with a computer tlirough the medium of speech,
graphics, and natural languages etc., a possibility as well as
enabling the exchange of information in a form wliich is
natural for man.
These functions will be combined into a single general-
purpose machine having a system configuration which can
meet various performance requirements in a variety of applied
Fields.
These functions may be arranged so as to serve as machines
in whicl~ any one of the functions is reinforced, and as machines
they will have a common programming language.
Tl~e fiftl~ generation computer system will be aimed at
sufficient general-purpose functions and performance require-
ments to realize systems for machine translation, question
answering and utilization of speech, pictures and images
. systems which will be basic and common for a wide variety
of applications in the 1990's.
The target performances of the basic application systems
perceived liere are shown in Table 1.
41. Image of the Fifth Generation Computer System
Tlie fiftl~ generation computer system will be considered
from two different points of view in order to get as general
an image as possible.
Tl~e first point of view is a conceptual view of a hierarchical
structure including a human system, a modeling system and a
machine system, and is centered on how the level of the
man-machine interface will increase with respect to its present
level.
Note: 1 LIPS (logical [nfcrences per Second) means one inference operation of syllogism per second.
One inference operation on a present computer is considered to require 100-I.000 steps, and
hence 1 LIPS is equivalent to 10'J-1,000 IPS (Instruction per sec).
Mrchines of the present generation are of approximately 10�-lOs LiPS.
67
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Fig. 1. An Example of the Fifth Generation Computer Systems
The second point of view deals with the fifth generation
computer system more specifically, and shows how components
are combined into the system as software or hardware. Since
it would be difficult to describe the system in its overall
configuration, it will be divided into an application system,
~ftware system, and a hardware system to provide an image
ot' the configurations for each system.
The application system corresponds to part of the human
system in the hierarchical structure described above, the
software system corresponds mainly to the modeling system,
~ and the hardware system conesponds primarily to~ the machine
system.
The image of the flifth generation computer system can be
~ grasped more clearly by combining ~he foregoing two points
of view.
1) A Conceptual Image of a Fifth Generation Computer
System
As shown Fig.l the ~fth generation computer system will
be oriented toward processing knowledge information and
will have quite a high logic capability. Its greatest feature
will be that interface between man and computer will greatly
approach the human level.
Conventionally, man�machine interface has been via proce-
dural programming languages. To solve a problem with the
69
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Table 2. Themes in Research and Development of the Fifth
Genention Computer System
8nie ~pplleatlon 1-1) M~ehin~ u~ntl~tion rist~m
syft~m~ 1-21 Qu~stion anw~v~rinp svst~m
1-3) Appll~d ~pNCh und~rtundlnp sV~t~m
1-4) Appli~d pletur~ and imp~ und~rstendinp
sy~t~rt+
1-Bl Appli~d probl~m wlvtnp sy~tsm
B~~le wftw~r~ 2-1) KnOwl~dp~ ba~ m~~p~m~nt sy~tem
sy~t~m~ 2-2) Probl~m wlvinp snd ini~r~ne~ ~Y~t~m
2-3) IntHlip~nt int~rf~c~ sYnem
N~w Wv~~e~d 3-1) Loyle propnmmin0 m~hin~
~rehit~etun 3-2) Funetioml m~chin�
3-3) Rd~tlonN slp~bra m~ehin�
3-4) Abst?~ct d~t~ typ~ tuppott msehinr
3-5) D~a flow m~ehfn~
3-81 In~ov~tlv~ von N~umann mschln~
Dlstrl;~ut~d func- 4-1 ~ Distributid funetlon archit~ctur~ '
tlon ~rchit~ctun 4-2) N~twork ~?ehtt~ctur~
4-3) Dat~ b~f~ maehin�
4-4) Hlph-tpNd num~riesl eompuution m~ehins
4-5) Hiqh-IwN m~n-m~chin~ communiestion
fY~t~m
VLSI t~chnolopy 5-1) VISI ~rehlt~etur~
5-2) Int~Ifiy~nt VLSI CHD fystem
SWtmstis~tion 6-t) IntNliy~nt proprsmminp syst~m
t~chnolopy 8-2) Knowlsdp~ bn~ dNipn ~y~tem
8-3) Syst~m~tlt~tion t~ehnolopy for eomputsr
arehit~etur~ ,
8-4) D~t~ b~q ~nd dlttrJbut~d dsta b~a ~ytt~m
� Dw~~opm~nt of 7-1) Ow~lopm~e+t fuppo~t systsm
�upportinp t~eh-
noloqy
help of a computer, man has ~rst had to describe, model and
program the problem. Humans�and computers have been able
to understand each otlier only through programs tlius prepared.
With fifth generation computer systems, however, the
description and modeling of a problem will take place at
interface. In other words, computers will be able to understand
problem descriptions and from that express a modcl, and
syndiesize a program based on such modeling. Man wiil be
able to communicate with computers by using speecl~, natural
languages, pictures or images witli a certain extent of free~lom.
To realize sucli sopl~isticated capabilities, Uotl~ sc~ftware
and l~ardware sl~ould be functionally improyed. Eig.3 sl~ows
a conceptual image of such a system iii wl~icl~ tl~e macliine
system indicates future hardware. It can be understood from .
tlus Figure that tlie machine system lias functioiis mucli
higher in level tlian tl~ose of conventional macfiines. If we
compare tlie old with the new in terms of programming
languages, conventional macl~ines use procedurai languaRes
on tlie basis of sequential execution, wl~ile tl~e new macl~ine
system will use logic programming lar~guages or program
solving languages for trial-and-error logical inferences.
The modeling (software) system illustrated above will be
highly effective software for such hardware and will serve
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mainly to perform meta-inference functions for problem
solving sucli as understanding problems and ~synthesizing
programs. Sincc the level of logic programming languages is
quite high, the modeling system can be a man-machine interface ~
during tl~e period of transition before tlie Cnal object is
accomplished. However, input processing in tlie form of
everyday language, pictures, or images etc., in order to
minimize the incompleteness and vagueness of inputs, is
indispensable if we wish to allow tlie next stage of development.
~ APPllutlOn Int~r/~c~
API A?7 Arn
~ M~n�m~t~in~ Innrf~t~
K nOwlWp~ InlOrm~tlon
proew~iny ~wum (KIPSI
' ~ L~nyupllnt~rf~e~
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~ Aeeq~ intwl~e~
~ V~~IUN P~OCMfOr VIItY~I Vlrtu~l
d~t~bn~ m~Cnlm n~twp~k m~C~lm
~ Th~ 11nt ~Irtu~lie~tlon
, r ArraV ~ Med1� I Glob~l ~ LOe~I
HLIM ~ 5.770 ~ ' i OS procnwr DBM eommun~ution ~ commonk~tion
o~oe~uo. ~ Processor ~ p~a~~~~o~ ; procmor
TM ~~cond vNtu~lfi~tioo
FunttionNlY tl4tNbuHd
rNl m~ehiM
~ Th~ thirtl vntuNia~tion
VLSI CAD SYmm
Fig. 2. An Example of Hierarchically Organized Logical Model of the
Knowledge Information Processing System
Conversely, a function will be necessary to add some vagueness
and incompleteness to original responses for obtaining sum-
marized outputs.
The modeling system includes an intelligent communication
system capable of understanding speech, natural languages,
pictures, and images at tliat point when it interfaces witl~ the
liuman system.
Tlie intelligent communication system itself will be realized
as a sophisticated knowledge information processing system
I~aving modeling and machine systems such as described above.
The fiftl~ generation computer system will always utilize
knowledge required in series processing, beginning witl~ inputs
such as speeclt, natural languages, picture or images from
t)ie human system, and extending to understanding these
inputs, synthesizing and executing programs around tliem,
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and generating responses. This knowledge includes a know-
ledge of languages, knowledge of images, knowledge of
problem domains, and knowledge of the mechanisms and
data expression of the machine system, all stored in a
knowledge base.
With the functions of the machine system being sophisticated
and amplified by the modeling system in this way, our ability
to process information will be greatly improved.
2) An Image of the Configuration of an Application
System
Structures common to various systems such as intelligent
CAD, intelligent OA, intelligent CAI, and intelligent robots
which will also be realized in the fifth generation computer
system are shown in Fig. 4.
All application systems are composed of three subsystems,
namely, interactive, processing and management. These three
subsystems will be proportionally different from appiication
system to application system. These subsystems are illustrated
in Fig.S, showing their mutual relationship and internal
operation to clarify the various functions tliey perform.
Speech, natural languages, pictures, images or their com- ~
binations are used to put a question to the system. Tl~e
interactive system utilizes the knowledge inherent in the
languag~ or pictures to analyze a structure (construction)
and convert it into a.n internal (intermediate) expression such
as an antomical tree. Then, an analysis is made of that
meaning in context and a description of tlie problem is
extracted from that. This, however, is incomplete due to
omissions and the like. Knowledge used here about context
and background knowledge, wluch is used at this time, is
information related to the background and flow of the
conversation taking place. The processing system converts the
incomplete description into a complete description using its
knowledge about problem domains, and generates an answer
to the description. At this time, operations such as effective
utilization (inference) of the knowledge of problem domains
and storage (learning) or new knowledge are effected. The
generated. answer is then converted into a summarized answer
by getting rid of unnecessary, self-evident information. There-
after, this summarized answer is converted by the interactive
system into an internal expression, wluch in turn is converted
into an external expression understandable to man. In this �
way, one conversational cycle is completed. During this cycle,
the management system oversees a variety of knowledge for
effecting common operations of inference and leazning.
3) An Image of the Composition of a Software System
An image of the composition of a software system for
Int~r~ctiv~ tytt~m Prochsinp syft~m
Msn~p~m~nt tyst~m
Fig, 4. System Structu~e
73
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~~Va\ V! \~~~.~Ar VJ~.. Vl\LJ�
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Fig. 5. Mutual Relationship and Internal Operations of the Three Subsystems in an
Application System
74
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realizing various application systems is shown in : ig. 6, the
. software system d'uectly reflecting the structure of application
systems.
(1) Basic software systems
Thex will be the core of all systems and consist of a
problem solving and inference system, a knowledge base
management system, and an intelligent interface system. These
systems correspond respectively to the problem solving and ~
inference machine, the knowledge base management machine,
and the intelligent interface machine, and may be defined as
those which cannot be constituted as hardware in realizing func-
tions.
(2) Intelligent systematization support systems
~ These will be a group of systems which, in designing and
producing (systematization) optimum information processing
systems for various applications, will have knowledge of
what is to be produced, production processes, and the like
for greatly reducing the amount of work which man will do
in systematization. These systems include subs}rstems which
lead from a strict specification description language and a
described spec~cation to what is to be produced, or a ~
-----r---
I Applic~tion I syst~m~ ~
I ~
~ Bnle ~pplie~don ~ ~ytt~m~ ~
~ I
~ IntNlip~nt utillty ~ syst~mf ~
I I I
~ IntNlip~nt syaim~tizstfo~ ~
~ fuppoK sVn~ms ~
~ IntNlip~nt I Probl~m-wlvinp I
~ inarf~c~ ~Yst~m ~ 6 inf~nnc~ sy~t~m I
I ~
~ ~ I
~ ~ I
I ~ ~
H~rdw~n s st~m ~
L - ~ }E- ~
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~ , sy~t~m ~
I
I ~
I ~
i ~
I I
I Ba~ic knowl~dp~ b~N ~
I I
I I �
I I
I I
Fig. 6. Conceptual Diagram of the Com-
position of a Fifth Generation Computer
Software System
subsystem for verifying correctness, and a subsystem for
simulating operations, and the like. It also comprises three
75
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. . _ _
support systems, that is, an intelligent programming system
for handling programs, a knowledge base design system for
hand[ing a knowledge base, and an intelligent VLSI design
system for handling VISI chips and computer architecture.
(3) Intelligent utility systems
These will be a grcup of systems which will provide
sophisticated functions to facilitate utilization of the system
. itself. These will be comprised of a system for maintaining
transferability to transfer stored programs and data bases
from existing commercial machines to a target machine, a
system~xplanation and education system for explaining the
functions and use of the overall system and subsystems and
for responding to user's consultation, an intelligent trouble
diagnosis and maintenance system for automatic inspection
and recovery and for guidance and consultation about inspec-
tion and repair of complicated trouble, and other systems.
(4) Basic knowledge base
Universal knowledge used by the system itself and by the
users wiil be arranged as basic knowledge bases which are
components of the foregoing systems and are employable in
application systems which users will make. There are largely
three knowledge bases: a general knowledge base similar to
common sense; a systems knowledge base which will gather
knowledge related to systems; and an applied fieids knowledge
base which will gather knowledge about certain applied ~elds.
The general knowledge base includes bases of basic words of
everyday use, basic sentence patterns and basic scripts, a
~ base of dictionaries of vazious languages and sentence con-
struction rules, and other bases related to natural languages.
~ The systems knowledge base includes bases containing specifi-
cations for tlie system itself, such as a processor specification
description base and an operating system specification descrip-
tion base, a language manual base, a program module base ~
containing programs which are highly usable, and other bases. ~
Tl~e application knowledge base includes a VISI design tech-
~ nology base, a computer architecture base, a basic program
base, and other bases.
(5) Basic application systems
Tl~is group of systems will be developed as basic application
systems and have respective final target performances. T}?ese
systems will be very valuable and will be a source of knowledge
. bases and sophisticated-function modules commonly usable
. by various application systems. The systems are largely
classified as follows:
� Machine translation system
� Question answering system
� Applied speech understanding system
� Applied picture and image understa,nding system
� Applieci problem solving system
4) Future of Hardware System Structur,�
(1) A profile of fifth generation compu:ar systems
~ Eifth generation computer systems, covering all sizes from
the small ones for personal use to tlie large-scale computers,
will find application in various fields. These will include
machines for exclusive use as well, incorporating particular
strengthened functions like the existing data bas~ macliines
76
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FI
Aacw u turN
lan0up~ ~p~A,
pieturN,
Hiph-IwN Inquiry Inalli~nt int~rfaq
I~nyup~ W~~
Cor~
Knowl~d~ baw I~n~~ Ext~md intKfae~
m~~p~m~nt oi th~ bMie
~yst~m sofew~n syst~m
Knowl~da Wa
en~na~m~nt ~yst~m
Knowl~dp~ b~M IntNli~nt Int~rhe~
rrHn~am~nt ~y~t~m ~yrt~m Balc wftwsr~
r� ~Y~tMn
Probl~m-wlvinp 6
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meehin~
Lopie propnmminp Isnpup~ Inallip~nt
int~rf~e~
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r
RNstfond ~
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baN m~ch~ni~m ~ D� Y ' O a E Y
i a~ E ; E D lstr i but~d funetion
i / nnwork ~y~amt
VLSI archftyetur~
Fig. 7. Basic. Configuration of the Fifth Generation Computer Systems .
grouped into a community by a local network.
Tl~e computers u~ this community may be classified accord-
- ing to their abilities, but in so far as they will share a common
programming language, they may be looked upon as members
of a new computer family.
From the standpoint of their basic software interface, tl~ese .
computers shall I~ave three functional components. 7 hese
are listed below with the corresponding components (in
parentheses) of existing computer systems:
77
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. .
(a) Problem solving and inference macl~ines (CPU)
(b) KnowleJge base management macliines (Mcmory and
filing system witl~ virtual memory)
(c) Intelligent interface machines (i/O channels and
devices)
These three . compunents will form part of eadi computer
system. A generat-purpose ~ftl~ generation computer system
will be equipped with each of these machines in substantially
the same pruportion, wltereas a small system witl~ the same
structure will form a general-purpose fifth generation per-
sonal computer.
A computer system with enhanced problem solving and
inference computer. This will find application in fields like
consultation requiring professional knowledge, calling for
strong ability to infer. Systems witii reinforccd knowledge
base management function will be ca~led knowledge base
computers. Like the existing data base machines, tliey will
be applied in ~elds requiring storage of `Knowledge' in laree
masses.
Computers incorpurating an enhanced intelligent interface
function will be provided witl~ an interface witli variou~
interactive media, speech, picture and image as well as tliose
based on natural languages. [t will be possible to use tliese
machines independently or in combination.
Figure 7 shows a conceptual image of the general fiftl~
generation computer configuration.
Computer functions will be available at various levels and
their combinations will create a wide range of machines
covering both the small personal computers and large-scale
machines incorporating each function to its maximum extent.
(2) Profile of the structures of machines serving differ~nt
functions
Hardware architecture shaping the functional components
will be based on a combination of six machines. Tl~ese are
the six machines that are being studied as the likely candidates
to establish the new architecture. The machines will be so
combined by adopting the distributed function architecture,
namely by applying modularization, adoptation, and micro-
programming techniques.
For smaller computers of moderate performance, a firmware
base architecture built on the innovative von Neumann
technique will be adopted. Language interfaces will center
on new languages of both the predicate logic and abstract
data types. Thus, the results of study on both the logic
programming machines ar?d abstract-data type support macl~ines
will be made use oC in programming.
For the powerful large-scale computers, data flow machines
including functional machines will serve as the core technology.
For the problem solving and inference computers~ the execution
part in tl~e logic programmtng macl~ine will use a large�scale
data flow mechanism for its execution, and the knowledge .
base will be processed by a small-scale liigli�speed relational
~ algebra machine. The relational algebra maeliine wip use a
suitable data f]ow mechanism for its execution.
A large-scale knowledge base computer will use as its cote
a large-scale relational data base machine including a relational
78
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algebra machine. Results of studies on the abstract data type
support machines will also be used.
The supporting hardware in the intelligent interface system
will include a VISI processor for exclusive use in speech and
a signal processors. Data flow machine techniques, including
functional machine techniques will be used frequently in
high-speed operations.
Tlie data flow machine will constitute the basic execution
mechanism for high-speed processing, and hence sliould be
taken up as one of the. main subjects for research a~~d
development.
A number of customized VLSI's are ind spensable for the
machines, and, therefore, development of VLSI-CAD to
produce such VISI's in a short period is to be treated as ttie
most important theme from the standpoint of packaging.
(3) Macro image of the ~fth generatinn computer structure
Fifth generation computers will be linked to communication
systems to form a global network suitable for various social
organizations. Potentially, each node in such a global network,
that is, each computer site, will constitute a system connected
by a local network to two or more computers. Tlie local
network, capable of high-speed data transfer, will connect
computers of different functions, including the smaller personal
computers, tlws making up a general-purpose group (commu-
nity).
As the macro image suggests, a fifth generation com-
puter system will be a collection of computers serving different
functions: a small, general-purpose personal computer, a
knowledge base computer, and a problem solving and inference
computer all connected by a local network.
In principle, the component computers will have a oommon
programming language. These computers, therefore, will form
a computer family linked by a common language even though
they may be intended to serve different purposes with one
or the other of the functions enhanced.
A structure of this nature will help build up a flexii~le
computer system suitable for the intended applications. ,As
the above suggests, hardware and software research and
development for fifth generation computer systems should
be carried ~out so as to allow them to be connected by local
and global networks.
5. R & D Program
The Fifth Generation Computer Project is to be carried out
over the next 10 years. (Table 3) Based on the results of
three years study by the Fifth Generation Computer Study
Committee, R& D will be divided into three phases. In the
first 3-year phase basic technology R& D will be completed.
In the second 4-year phase subsystems are to be developed and
in the final 3-year phase a prototype computer will be devel-
oped as a result of total system integration. Referring to the
prototype, private companies will produce their own com-
mercial models to be put on the markat.
81
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SCIENCE AND TEQiNOLOGY
POLYMERIC MATERIALS IN EI,ECPRONICS
Tokyo TECHNOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 48-49
~~~J With the advance of electronics in recent years, polymeric
materials have much developed, as major materials in elec-
tronics. Here, the present situation of polymeric materials is
given by introducing an outline of a paper delivered by Professor
Shogo Saito of Kyushu University.
1. Insulating MaterWa
The most important problem to be overcome by insulating
materials used in electronic equipment and devices, is to realize
superior heat-resistant properties.
The work in synthesizing new polymers in recent yeacs that
satisfy such is not so remarkable, but rather much developing
work is along the lines of improving the molecular structures
of the heat-resistant polymers already synthesized. One
example is imide prepolymer having a reactive molecular end.
&cause this polymer dces not contain volatlle components
such as residual solvents, it is suitable to meet requirements
as a melt .urable or melt-processible heat-resistant polymer for
use as an electrical insulating material. Representative poly-
meric insulating materials used in high-density integration of
so-called microelectronics, are polyirude and epoxy resins, and
so, here new trends of both of these resins are described as
follows:
An interesting aspect of polyimide used so widely, .is the
development of polyimide isoindolo-quinazolinedione (PIQ
resin) by Hitachi. The difference in chemical structure be-
tween PIQ and ordinary polyimide is that PIQ contains a
ladder structure having good thermal stability in the polyimide
chain.
a~ _
,R,~N~C ~R/ ~
N
II
O (R~ , Rz : aromatic ring)
PIQ film can be formed by coating PIQ prepolymer on
silicon wafer material, and curing at 350�C in a nitrogen
atmosphere. This film can endure heating in air at 450�C for
91
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5 hours.
The success of PIQ as a passivation matedal has come as a
surprise abroad, and the electronic industries in America and
Europe are now investigating use of polymide materials for
multilayer VLSI's. And further, a surface treating agent, such -
as an organosilane compound like gamma�amino-propyltriethoxy
silane, is presented to improve the adhesive properties of poly-
imide on silicon wafer material.
As for epoxy resin, the deveiupment of improving its
heat-resistance and controlling viscosity in applying it to device _
packages, is actively proceeding. One example is the high-
molecular-weight linear epoxy resin, developed by Western
Electric, which is possibly cross.linked with high densiry.
2. Semiconductor Materials
The success of electrofax-photosensitive materials using poly-
meric semiconductor materials has motivated applying the
sensitisor to the polymer for laser printing. And the subject .
is now established as a national project. These activities are
intensive, but exact information about developments is not
readily available.
The following photoconductive polymers are now being
studied: (1) linear n conjugated polymers such as polyacetylene,
(2) polymers such as polyvinylanthrathene, which have con-
densed polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in their side chains,
(3) those such as polyvinylcarbazole, which have complex cyclic
aromatic compounds in their side chains, (4 j polymers contain-
ing allylamine in their side chains, (5) those such as polyimide,
which contain aromatic or complex rings in their main chains,
and (6) charge-transfer complex polymers, which are obtained
by doping low molecular compounds into the above polymers.
The photoconductive polymers developed have for the most
part features of the so-called separation-type function, in
which are used composite structures consisting of two phases,
that is, the phase generating carriers by photoirradiation, and
the other phase of drifting carriers. And further, the tendency
of obtaining desired materials by polymeric semiconductors
only is becoming less, whereas that by combining with other
materials is becoming greater. For example, the following are
the typical laminated function-separated photoconducting
materials: (1) polyvinylcarbazole as a charge migration layer
and amorphous selenium as a charge generation layer, (2)
pyrazoline/polycarbonate (charge migration) and organic pig-
ment such as squalilium (charge generation), and (3) 2,5-bis(4
diethylaminophenyl)-1,3,4-oxadiazole/polyester (charge migra-
tion and thioindigo derivatives (generation).
~ There are some photoelectric transducing materials using
~ polymeric substances such as (1) trinitrofluorenon/polyvinyl- ~
?carbazote, (2) polymeric thin film dispersed by phthalocyanines, .
(3) polyacetylene doped by a small amount of electron-acceptor
molecules, among which polyacetylene type materials will be
studied much more for future development.
3. Resiat Msterials
~ 92
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Resist is an important material in electronics; essential to
the manufacture of many electronic devices, among which the
VLSI is the most important semiconductor device.
Photoresist, which has been widely used for some time, has
now reached its highest level, and methods of designing the
material are considered as being almost fully established
although there have been some slight improvements.
The current main projects in research and development tend
to be for infrared (deep W) resist, electron beam resist, and
X-ray resist. Research projects expected to lead to new
high-performance resists have been much reported at a meeting
of the American Chemical Society lasf year. Main research
concerns deep W resist and electron beam resist, among
which, one of the important projects is the development of
materials to chemically modify esters of polymetliacrylic acid,
as previously.
A noticeable new tendency is the bold idea of applying
organic semiconductors to resist, but it will take mucl~ time
to accomplisl~ tlie development because of economical aspects
and scnsitivity.
Cross-linked polymethacrylates have been developcd, tlius
appearing as a positive electron beam resist witli good Eliermal .
stability and dry-etching property as: (1) poly(metliylmetl~a-
crylate-co�metl~acrylic acid), and (2) poly(methylmetl~acrylate-
co-methacryloyl cl~loride).
These copolymers contain comonomer units of 10 mole%,
possiblc to be cross�linked. These are mixed and formed into
a coating film, and ttien, by low-temperature lieat treatment a
weakly cross-linked resist film can be prepared.
Furtliermore, binary and ternary copolymers, wliicl~ contain
any suitable monomer unit in the backbone of polymetliyl-
~ methacrylate, l~ave been developed and are expected to be
suitable as new deep W resist. Tiiese copolymers are as
follows: .
(1) poly(methylmetliacrylate-co-3-oximino�2-butanone metl~-
acrylate)
CH3 CH3
I. i
- CHZ - C - CHZ - C
I ~
C=0 C=0
i ~
0 0
CH3 N 0
CH3- C - C - CH3
(2) poly(methyl methacrylate-co�3-oximino-2-butanone meth-
acrylate-co-methacrylonitrile)
CH3 CH3 CH3
-CHz-C-CHz-C-CHz-C-
~ i i -
C=0 C=0 CN
i i
0 0
~ ~
CH3 N 0
ii u
CH3-C - C - CH3
93
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.
Tl~e latter has a. sensitivity 85 times greater than PMMA as
a deep W resist, and the sensitiv;iy can be increased two or
three times iugher by adding a photosensitizer. And further,
the following palynitroamide is receiving attention as a new
deep W resist.
CH3 CH3
I I
- -N-~-O-~j-N-C-~
C
N0, NOz i~
0 n
IBM has plans for a new electron beam resist, using a thin
film on substrate formed in a gas phase by reacting bromide
witl~ tetrathiafulvarene (TTF) which is well known as a com- ~
ponent of organic semiconductor. Also, a negative resist is
reported, using a thin film doped by CBr4 into a new polymer
syntliesized by binding chemically TTF to polystyrene through
covalent bonds. The following chemical reaction is used
between TTF and CBr4:
hv
'TTF + CBr4 TTF � BrX (0.5 s x S 0.8)
It has becn reported that a resolutio~i of 1,000~? has been
obtauicd by using tliis resist in a coating film witli 6,OO~A
- tl~ickness.
COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd.
CSO: 4120/217
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SCZENCE AND TECHNOLAGY
YAMAGUCHI SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS C~NTER
Tokyo TECHNOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 49-50
[Text] I:DD's satellite communications center in Yamaguchi
Pi :lecture is the western entrance of international communica-
~i~ms with Japan. Since its opening in May 1969, it has been
expanding as ttie main ground station to deal with such work
as station-to-station communications, marine satellite com-
munications over [NTEISAT satellites, and tracking, control-
ling and testing satellites themselves.
Now the cen!er has its own communications parties of
31 destinations in 29 countries, to which about 656 circuits
are working. Further, it is now preparing to start a new marine
satellite service over INMARSA~T, in February, 1982. All
facilities were completed in December, 1981 and tlie center
~ is gaining greater importance in sharing in international
communications, to and from Japan.
KDD, Japan's in�ernational communication monopoly, has
two satellite communications centers: one in Ibaragi Prefecture
which aims at having accesses to satellites over the Pacific .
Ocean and the ather is this Yamaguchi ce~?tar from which
satellites, both over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are '
accessible.
The Yamaguch: center is located in ,the wEatern' pazt of ,
Honshu, Japan's mainland, about 13km a~vr.y from Yamaguchi
City. This location was chosen as the Indian Ocean satellite
can be d'uectly observed with no interfe*ance from domestic ~
microwave paths, since it is surro~.:;~:~ed by mountains, and
little noise exists in spite of beir.g fairly near to a town center.
[t is also out of the occasional course of passing typhoons,
and seldom experiences earthquake tremors.
The center has three main jobs stationary satellite
communications, marine satellite communications, and tracking,
testing, controlling and maintenance (TTC&Ml. Stationary
satellite communications have 31 party destinations in 29
countries, which have been connected mainly over the Satellite
~ N and, now, the center is adding Satellite V over the Indian
Ocean in December to which relevant facilities have already
been prepared. ~
Marine satellite comm~nications services have been offered
to ships~on the Indian Ocean since November 1978, though
the marine satellite is now a private one, COMSAT. As the
95
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global system of IIVMARSAT starts to work, the anter is
now preparing to switching its dealings to meet the system.
TTC&M work is shared with INTEISAT, which has launded
and is operating 14 satellites. The center is one of 8 TTC&M
offices for INTELSAT. It is actively sharing its responsibllities,
for Satellite V that was launched in December, 1981.
The center has now eiglit ground stations, of which the
four main ones have parabola antennae, 27.5 meters in diameter,
for Satellite [V, 34meter diameter for the Satellite V, 13�meter
diameter for Marisat, and 32-meter diamster for TTCBrM.
Most output�power tubes are TWT's, while that for the marine
satellite is ~nly a crystron.
As for inhouse plant at the center, distinguished equipment
is the digital converter of TV standard signals that is the sole
one used in Japan, and other equipment is all the most advanced
available.
The center's target is to offer highly~qualified communica-
tions throughout the world.
COPYPIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd.
CSO: 4120/217
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SCIENCE AND TECI~IIJOLOGY �
ACOUSTIC EMISSION TECHNOLOGY ,
Tokyo TECfIl~iOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 51-52
[Text] Whenever a l~ouse collapses, caused by an eartliquake, a
creaking sound is always heard before it ~inally crashes down.
Similar to this phenomenon, before any object frar,tures, a
similar small creaking sound, inaudible to tlie huma~i ear, is
generated, witliout fail. Acoustic Emission (from I~cre called
AE) Technology, wliich is detection of sucli sounds by
ultrasonic sensors and using them as an application of non-
destructive inspection of pressure vessels, lias been making
rapid progress cowards commercialization. Such vessels are
quite common 'sn the chemical industry and elsewl~ere.
To look at die present status of AE teclinology, wliicli
quite rapi~ly, has been gathering much attention recently,
whenever an object fails, this never happens su~3denly or
abruptly. ~Vhen a force is applied to an ob;ect, the object
deforms. When the force applied exceeds a certain level,
plastic deformation which imparts permanent transformation,
occurs even after the release of the applied force. Around
~ the transition boundary from deformation to plastic deforma-
tion, a small creaking sound is always genera4ed. As this sound ~
has a frequency of 105-6H2, it is a kind of ultrasonic wave.
And as the human ear is only able to hear sounds below
20kH~, it is unable to be detect such a sound.
Acoustic �waves in AE originate from slight sideslipping
of small crystal structure portions, or from extension of old
cracks existing in the object of up to several l0�m, when
a force is applied to it. When such a force is applied,
cracks in the object keep extending, generating tl~e creaking
sound until the object visibly fails.
Therefore, if such squealcs can be cauglit by a special AE
sensor, the real danger can be detected much earlier prior
to any actu~l occurrence of large-scale failure of tlie object.
An AE sensor acts as a kind of stethoscope and uses a
piezoelectric component, to convert micropressure fluctuations
into electrlcal signals. And by using two or more sensors in
combination, it is possible to establish the position of cracks
in an object. A crack occurring in a metal plate can be detected
and the position pinpointed within f a few millimeters. It is
said that Dr. Ifaizer of West Germany who, in tlie early ~
1950's, measured sounds originating in metal wlier~ a force was
applied, was the originator of AE research activi:ies. Later
9$
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on in the 1960's, actual applications of AE technoic~y being
used in inspection, in the fislds of rocket, aircraft and other
forms of engineering in the United States, actually started.
Recently, applications of AE technology~ in Japariese
industry, such as in the inspection of pressure vps~els, machinery
surveillance in factories and elsewhere, have begun to be put
into practice.
Application Example No. i
~ Nippon Steel Corp. has been effectively installing AE
equipment for surveillance of stee~ plate rolling mills. As the
ro~ls in these machines apply a rolling force of several hundred
tons, even a slight cracic, say, in a bearing support for a roll
shaft, could lead to a dangerous accident by continuing to
use such a machine ~�~~thout appropriate action.
However, to re~lace such a bearing support with a new
one may take many days and it is impossible to stop a
production line for such an extended period. Therefore any
cracked portions are usually repaired by welding or by adding
mechanical bracing. On sueh occasions, if AE equipment is
installed, any reoccurnna of the trouble in the welded area
or repaired cracks, is swiftly detected. By observing any
changing status of acoustic emiasions without stopping the
entire production line, variaus methods, such as easing the
force applied to the particular rolls or further repairs can
be performed as timely action.
Extending of a crack which, could not be detected by
ultrasonic detection equipment, Gan now be identitied by
AE and it is possible to stop a rolling mil! timely before any
_ real danger arises.
Application Example No.2 ~
An application, as forecasting technology for gas emission
accidents in mines, is also underway. Prof. Watanabe of
Hokkaido University has installed several sets of A.E equipment
at various mines in the Hokkaido and Kyushu areas, to
establish the possibility of using AE as a forecasting tool.
- In mining opeiations, explosives are used to break out
the coal from the seams, but oftPn there aze gas emissions
created by the disturbance of the rockbed enclosinR high-
pressure gas, leading to weakened strata and landslides occur-
ring. It is said that more than 909'0 of gas� emission accidents
occur immediately after such explosions. However, the number
of immediate emissions or nonrelated or delayed emissions
after blasting using explosives have been increasing. ~
Raising of gas pressure is caused by the remoteness of
present coal, seams which go deeper and deeper, some over
1,OOOm from the earth's surface, and such phenomena make
more difficult to predict gas emissions,.but accordine !fl cunent
research, an acoustic emission from as far away as~ lOm from
_ such a dangerous locatfon can be detected. The accuracy.
_ of being able to predict a gas emission depends on the absolute
probability improvement, by the installation of AE equipmen;.
Thus the development of easily operated portable AE equ~p-
ment has been receiving keen interest.
Application Example No.3 .
The inspection of pressure vessels used in petroleum
refineries, chemical and Fawer generation plants has been
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M'UK UMMIUAL U~~. VIVLY
attracting been attention as new applicaiions for AE technology.
[n order to 'avoid possible danger, pressure vessels that recxive
high�internal pressure aze required under various regulatiuns,
to pass regular periodic inspections. On such or similar occa-
_ sions, or to verify that a newly built pressure vessel can
withstand the designed pressure rating, the vessel is subjected
to a higher pressure, higher than normal rating. Inadvertantly
accidental bursting of the vessels can occur. This is why there
is a des'ue to apply AE technology during such inspections
to make detection early and to avoid any �possible danger.
In the case of using ultrasonic detection or using uther
technology for inspection of giant spherical tanks, over 30m
in diameter, inspection may take over a month. However, with
AE technology where it is possible to set a~ large number of
AE sensors simultaneously on a giant tank, it is possible
determine the presence of cracks within a day or so.
Nippon Steel has been subjecting such pressure vessels to
AE inspection. via its subsidary, as a contract starting 2 years
ago, and it is now receiving a dozen or so requests yearly
from chemical and power generation establishments.
Besides the above applications, inspection of structurai
objects, svch as bridges and highways, monitaring for quality
control in spot weldirut operations, much used in zutomobile
production processes, are some of the examples of the expanding
applications of AE technology.
CC?YRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co. , Ltd.
CSO: 4120/217
100
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SCIENCE AND TECfIIJOLOGY
POLARIZING OPTICAL FIBER
Tokyo TECHDiOCRAT in Enqlish Vol 15, No 1, Ju~ 82 pp 52-53
. _ - -
[Text] The Electrotechnical Laboratory (ETL) has developed a
polarizing device using optical ~ber. Attractlng world atten-
tion at preaent, ia how to uae optical fiber itself as a functioning
device, not merely aa juat an optical path, for example, by
exploiting its long mutual acting diatance to generate high-
efficiency nonlinear optical effects or developing, say, an optical
interferometer, so as to ada~c optical t3ber to high-aensitivity
' meaaurements.

j The polarizing technology just developed by ETL will make
an important contribution to uaing optical fiber as a function�
ing material. It ia beL~ause to uae it aa auch not only requires
single mode fiber as the beat material, but also requires the
technology to control polarization statua inside the optical
~ fiber.
Conventional technology for light modulation has employed,
generally, such excluaive�uae polarizers aa a filter slit or a prlsm.
By such methoda however, the connectlon between the device
and transmis,don path developa noiae and causes attenuation,
which then r.zeda compenaating in various ways. And it results
in the overall deaign being complex� or cauaing troublesome
servicing. The newly~eveloped method uaes the optical fiber
itself as a polarizing device so that these problems are now all
solved. ~
The prindple is the same as that of a metal loaded film
waveguide path in that, as shown in Figun 1, a part of the
fiber-optics cla~.i iay~s is replaced by a metal such as A1 or Au
to increase loss of the pseudo�TM wave~ thereby guiding only
the pseudo�TE wave with low loss. Thia principle is more
specific in terms of structure as follows: a groove is made on -
the quartz or acryl substrate, but only very shallow in its
middle part and an optical flber, 125�m thick, is inserted in
the groove, in the �middle shallow part of the groove, part of
the fiber is exposed. An optical t~ber generally consists, in
terms of cross xction, a con part which guides the llght, and
the cladding around it having a hlgher rofractive lndex than
tliat of the coro. By this new method however, the depth of
the groove is adjusted so that, only the clad portion protudes.
Then this portion is ground to the same flat level as the
substrate's surfacx.
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� V~\ V~ ~l~r~Aa~ VV~+ VlYL~1
Aluminum
(mK~l Iaysr)
\\a\\\\~ /
Index matehinp
. Iiqufd
Sub~tnt~
i.
Ground turf~e~ Si~pl~ mod~ optieal fib~r Cor�
Fig. 1. Polarization Device Using Optical Fiber ~
Developed by ETL
ETL used a wire saw to make a groove about 140�m wide
~ but only 65�m deep in the middle portIon and 50^�100cm
radius on a 5 x IG x 20mm quartz substrate; then they buried
a 125�m diameter single mode f3ber (core diameter is 4�m)
in tl~e groove with epoxide resin and ground the exposed part.
After grinding t'~e surface~ they applied oil witli a matcliing
refractive index, almost widi the same refractive index 1.468
as that of the quartz substrate. Further, they positioned an
aluminum plate which had undergone mirror finishing, and
fixed it using a glass plate, on which in some areas, metal film
had been deposited. Into this polarizing device thus con-
structed, ETL applied an He-Ne laser beam in the experiment.
~ Tlie He�Ne laser beam passed through a motor~driven rotating
� polarizer to undergo circular polarization, then through a
Babinet compensator, then projected to the optical fiber.
Next the light was divided into two elements at tl~e polarizing
device: a Y-mode element whose vector was vertical to tlie
substrate and an X�mode element whosc vector was horizontal.
Of them, the Y�mode element was subjected to interference
of the aluminum plate and disappeared, leaving only the X-
mode alone in tha optical fiber. Figure 2 shows an exarnpie
of the experiment's results with ~luminum evaporation.
~ � 16 15
m aD
'p 9
g 1O . G o .
O ~
~ C
[ �
O ~
�j~ �
V ~
c S 6 u
M ~
K
W
0 p
0.1 0.2 0.8 1 2 6 10
M~tChl~p Iiquid thickn~a (�m1
Fig. 2. An Example of the Experiment's Results With
Aluminum Evaporation
COPYRIGHTs 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd.
CSO: 4120/217 102
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. ~
SQENCE AND TECfIIJOLOGY
~ 100KW WIND-POWER GEN$RATOR
Tokyo TEC~IOCRAT in Enqlish Vol 15, ~to 1, Jats 82 pp 53-54
(Text] The Su~shine Plan Promotlon Headquarters of the Agency
of Industrial Science and Technology has recently announad
tlie specifications for an experImental 100kW windpower
generator. With thla move Jap~n has offidally begun. develop�
- ment of windpower, although her activitiea in the fTeid thua
far have been lagging compared with .Europe and the United ~
Stxtes. ~ '
- . The windpower generators already developed in thia country
lia~~e a capacity of only a few kilowatts while those developed
in otlur countries are much larger by comparison (see Table 1).
These small generators are used as power suppliea for
~el~graph and television repeafers and are also used by some
� }~ri�rate citizens. Devices of this type generate AC power which
is .;onverted to DC power which in turn is used to charge
b4: ceries. This method lowers the efficiency of the generators
rernarkably. C~~ns+dering the expense, such generators have '
lirlited application. The main reaaons are the low energy
dcnsity of wind power, and its large variationa.
Windpower generation has not been conaidered important
in Japan thus far becauu of the ~~ery tarb: variatlon in wind
energy due to the topography ar,d location of the country. .
H~wever, it will be po~ible to c!evelop windpower generation
~ in Japan if the amount of power generated can be held con� ~
Table 1. Current Status of Windpower Generator: Developed
in Selected Countriet in Europe and the U.S. (data
oollected by the Suruhine Pl~n Headquarterc)
o~e~~s ei.d. � .
Cou~Kry Nam~ pow~? dl~m~t~r R~n+Wk~ .
tkW) I~n1
. U,g. Mod~ 1 Z,000 61 In opn~tlon
, Mod~ 7 Z,000 00 In OpN~tlon
WNt G~rrn~ny OrowNn 1 3,000 100 Und~r
eon~t?uetlon
Orowi~n 2 6,000 1S8 Und~r
eonrtruetlon
D~nnwrk Niw Mod~ 1 630 10 In op~ntion
TVIND 1A00 Z7 1~ oPK~tion
~ EnO~~~d 9ACD/ERA 3,700 AO Und~?
oonrtruetbn
103
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Vn V~ ~ ~~.LAa+ V?~Li V1~L, /
stant despite such large variations. The new generator designed
by the Sunshine Headquarters will begin to genera;e power at
wind velocity above a aet level~ and will oompensate for excxas
wind speed, thus keeping the amount of power generated at a
constant value. 'The frequency of the generated alternating
Wfnd
E
d
~ - .
N
E
~i
12m 12m
Fig. 1. Profile of 100kW Pilot Windmill
curnnt will also be kept oonstant. Using these procedures,
the windpower generator will be operated in conjunction with
commercial power lines. In other countries this method has
already been adopted.
. Windmills used for wlndpoaer generation aze generally of
the ~ lift type. The counteracting force type windmill, as
represented by the windgauge (anemometer), which has arms
supporting cup-like wind acceptors, can be used efficiently at
low wind apeeds but loses efficiency as wind speed increases.
The lift type windmill utilizes wind energy on the same
principle as an airplane's wings (gnater speed produces greater
lift), thus the efticiency of utilizing wind energy increases
with wind veloaty. Because wind energy is proportional to
the cube of wind velodty, the lifting force type windmill is
usually used for windpower generation in view of its efficiency.
In some windmiUs the rotor axis is parallel to wind direc-
tion and in others it is perpendicular: The Sunshine Plan'.s
design employs a horizontal rotor axis and a lift type propeller. ,
Basic experiments on the propeller-type windmill wered
performed at the Mechanical Engineering Laboratory using a
1/25 scale model for wind tunnel tests. The number of blades
is usually two or three, and the test windmill used two. The
use of three blades greatly increases cost while raising efficiency
only a few percent and a two�blade propeller is safer consider-
ing the high frequency of typhoons in Japan. When wind
velocity exceeds a definite value (high wind condition),' the
blades change their direction to the horizontal in relation to
the ground, and adjust their an~le to minimize wind resistanix.
When using three blades, it is impossible to hold all three
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btadea horizonta~y, ~tFua increaaing wind~reaiatance, requitTng
greater mechanical etrength, and causing aafety problema in
the event of � typhoon.
The windmill begicu to rotate when wind velocity reaches
Sm/s, attaina the rated output :Y lOnt/:, and ato~ rotating at
spads above 17m/a, for safety. To avoid variations in alxer-
nating current frequency due to changes in wind velocity, It
rotates at a constant speed of Slrpm by controlling the pitch
angle of the bladea using a microcomputer. The pitch angle
is hydraulically controlled.
As shown in Figure 1, the diatneter of the propeller is
29.4m, and the height of the propeller axis is 28m. The
material of the blades ia GFRP. The rotational apeed of the
rotor, S 1 rpm, is changed up to 1,SOO~pm by a multlplier to
drive the generator, which is a DC W~k system. Uaing pitch
anglt control and frequency control to adjun input to the DC
link system, it is poaaible to supply atable electric power
independent of wind velocity variations, to the electric power
network. Miyakejima is the proposed site. If this pilot wind-
mill is sucasaful, the plan ia to construct an experimental ~
windmill having a capacity of 1,OOOkW.
COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketinq Psaearch Co., Ltd. ~
CSO: 4120/217
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SCIENCE AND TECE~IOLOGY
OpI~ETITION AROUND VISI'S
Tokyo TECFIIdOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 54-55
Hitacr~:, Ltd. announad on December 17, 1981 that it
would b~gin sale of 256K-bit RAM VLSI's as samples to
about 100 user companies from autumn, this year. Thus,
these new units are expected to put into commercial applica-
tion by the spring of 1983. The production rate will incr~ase
from a volume of tens of thousands in early 1983 to hundreds
of thousands by the end of 1983.
As a result of the announcxtnent by Hitachi, 256K VISI's
wiil appear on the market three years earlier than expected,
and competition among the makers will suddenly intensify.
When 64K RAM's were flrst sold as samplea in the autumn
. of 1980, the price of one unit was ~20,000, but after only
une year, it sharply dropped to ~2,000. At present, the price
is about ~ I,200 but it is expected to drop to 1,000 before
~ long. Usualiy the price of [C's follows the "Learning Curve" ~
theory prop~sed by the Boston Consulting Group of the U.S.
which states that price drops 3096 with a two times increase
in production. Therefore, a high�production maker can decresse
the cost per unit, and increase his profit, thereby gaining a
greater market share. The higher market share in turn leads .
to increased production and even more favorable conditions. '
These are the practical conclusions of the "Learning Curve."
. Tlie fact that Japanese semiconductor makers have become
believers in this theory has triggered confusion in the 64K
RAM market and created txiction between Japan and the U.S. .
- VVhen the technical considerations for market1ng64K RAM's
were satis~ed, Japaneae makers began intensive efforts ta
expand ~iroduction independent of actual demand. In the �
semiconductor industry it is generally considered that im� .
portant new products are introduced about every four years.
Tl~e market for 16K RAM's haa continued for four years, and
clie greater ahare was held by the Amerlcan semiconductor
industry. When the age of 64K ItAM's arrived, all the big
makers of semiconductors in Japan announced that they would
be svppliers of the product. Mitsubislii Electric Corp., the
latecomer in the 16K RAM market, joined the group. Oki
Electric Industry Co., which had no positive achievements,
announcxd it would supply 64K RAM's. Oki Electric was
followed by 5harp Corp. in April last year. All these makers
106
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arc carryfng out thelr plme. It is naturv that pdcea a+ili drop
with the incresae of production, independent of real demund. ~
tf the price of 64K RAM'a dropa to ~1,00~ per unit,the
~~ri~e will become comparable to that of 16K RAM's. Then,
~lie users will naturally select 64K RAM's instead of 16K
R~~IN's because of the better cost/performancx ratio of the
furmer. Thus, the demand for 64K RAM's has grown rapidly.
As a result, 64K RAM's ue now replacing 16K RAM's in Japan,
and further, demand for them has been gnatly expanded
abroad. According to one view, over half the demand in the
world is supplied by Japan. It is believed that 8 to 10 mlllion
641~ RAM's were manufactured in 1981, and over 60 million
will be manufactured in the world this year. And the pricx per
unit is approaching to, about rivo-thirds of that of a l6K RAM. , .
17iis situation is one reaaon for the friction concerning semi-
co~iductors between Japan and the L1.S. Although the growtli
in demand for 16K RAM's has stopped, its production has not
' . diminished.
The price of 64K ItAM's has fallen more rapidly than was
e~; pected, so makers have not been able to gain the profits
tl~~~y had hoped for. A top manager in the field s:~ys tliat tlu
e~:pected profit of about ~5 blllion did not material'ue. Despite
tlie previous bright outlook, extremely hard competition in
tl~e VL51 field has put companies in a very severe cituation.
]t was generally believed that the market for 64K RAM's
would continue far three more years, but competitive sales
have iust begun and every maker ia trying to expand produc-
; tus
4
�
T
Z , .
r
a
u �
~ 104 64K
0
n .
~
~ 16K
~ B
f
0
~ to3
~ 4K
c
_ ~
�
o �
N
'78 '77 '78 '7~ '60 '81 '82 '83 '8~
Fig. Number of Bits Integrated of Dynamic RAM'sIW/W)
tion rapidly. NEC~ Hitachi and Fujitsu are siming at reaching
a production ~le of one million unlts per month by t}iis
spring, and Okl has announcxd that its production of 400
thoussmd units in December last year wll1 be increaaed to 800
thousand in March. Mitaubiahi Electric is planning to produc-
tion 500 thousand unita this apring. Toshiba reportedly will
expand production equipment to raise the pn~ent monthly
production of 100 thousand units to 1 million unita by the
end of this year. Sharp~wIll begin production of 300 thousand �
107
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r~UR ul~~hlCtn~ ~5~. UMLY
Table. IC Sales, R&D Expsnsas and Equipment Investment
IC r~n 11 i D acprn~ ~q~pn~
IA1 1~1 ~/A IM~t~nt C/A
~ Cempn~d
s~w~ i Comprw ICI Cwnw~W
Y~~r Imillion wIM (n+llllon wltH Imfllbn wIM I(%1
v~~l p~vbu~ YMI p~vbu~ r~nl pNbu~
yur yM. YYr
io� se.aza I - ~s.o~a - ~a.~ n.a~~ - i~.a
+o~~ j ea.~on ae.~ u.sal ~a.s za.a �,e9a aa.~ z~.s
+a~e ~ ,N�.~e~' ~za.~ a~,ss~ �s.~ 19.9 n,a~a s~.> >o.a
tY76 1M.97~ 167.6 Z~.p7 172.9 1~.7 7E.7Yt ~pp.9 21.~
t9)? 166.47? Y1.3 2~.~6e /00.7 16.7 21,Y6B 64.1 14.1
1G78 ~51.lBt iez.o ~7,PY7 16b.4 16.1 ~6An 40D.2 1B.Z
1979 37~,Y70 /N.! 6~,77? 1~1.2 1~.6 51,103 1C3.t
tYBO ' 64),708 1~6.1 EY.037 146.0 12.6 t~6A76 16].7 ~~.9
1981 66~,247 119.6 l7,1l0 126.~ 17.9 1l6,40~ 1ZO.B 26.~
1Y82 8~7,~~ 14l.6 11Z.60~ 17p.1 1~.6 ~1a.610 1~p.p 26.4
(Pi~nnWl
Sourp~ t~p El~ttronk IntluRry VNrbook
units per month from ApriL
This expansion of production by Japanese makers is to be
attained by investing 419'0 of their sales. Shown in Table 1 are
the trends of IC sales, research and deyelopment, and invest-
ment in equipment. In 1982, research and development
expenses and equipment investment are expected to amount
to 13.6% and 26.2�k, respectively, of sales - a total investment
of 29.8%. This fact shows that the IC industry is really
investment�oriented. It is feared that theae active investments
might result in intensified competition and excessive equipment.
With demand for 64K RAM's at the end of this year
expected to exceed supply, the market is still expanding.
Japanese makers have enjoyed development benefits in the new
64K RAM market. So long as the 16K ItAM market in the U.S.
has not diminished, Japanese makers are not infringing on
the acquired market.
It may be said that Japanese makers have established a
basis for existence by obtaining a greater shaze of the expand-
ing market. Here is the essence of the friction in the Japan-
U.S. semiconductor war.
When the market stops expanding, some makers may not
be able to afford ~ch a high rate of investment. This is
reflected in the small number of enterprises, which have gone
into production of 65K RAM's, compared with 16K RAM
makers the worldover.
Under these circumstances, the industry was shocked when
Hitachi announced on Decxmber. 17 of last year that it would
begin mass�production of 256K RAM's from the autumn of
1982. Now both Japanese and American makers will have to
go all out in investing in production of 256K RAM's despite
the fact they have not recovered their 64K RAM investment.
W}ule the appearance of 256K ItAM's will intensify the
friction between Japanese and U.S. semiconductor makers,
but uxrs will benefit by the acceleration of technological
developments in the electronics field.
COPY RIGHT : 19 82 Fu j i Marketinq Rese arch Co. , Ltd.
CSO: 4120/217
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
~ ARDUOUS EFFORTS MADE TO COI~LETE COIrflrItTNICATIONS AGREEMENT
Tokyo NIIiON KEIZAI SflII~UN in Japanese 15 Mar 82 p 9
[Text] Waiting for "Voice of God?"
In connection with the work of drawing up the draft of a Public
� Tele-Communications Law revision bill for the purpose of liberalizing
data communications, the Postal Services Ministry and MITI are continuing
efforts to search for a compromise plan. With regard to the Postal
Services Ministry's original schedule for submitting the draft to the
Cabinet meeting on the 12th, time was earned to the extent of about
one week, due to the request for the postpanement of the submitting thereof
to the Cabinet Secretariat. However, there is also no possibility th at the
talks between the administrative officials concerned of the two Ministries
will develop beyond this, on a large scale. ltierefore, it seems that
the two Ministries will come to make final settlement efforts, while
waiting for the "voice of God" from the LDP. Private users are watch~ng
' the situation, from the stand that if the situation is not settled,
- it may result in injuring the LDP, too.
The administrative officials concerned of ~he Postal Services
Ministry and MITI seem to have half given up their respective hopes, but
~ they have been continuing a series of talks, in order to seize an
o,:.port unity to settle the situation, somehow or other. The reason for
this is probably that if the proposed revision itself of the Public
Tele-Communications Law is upset completely, and if the main cause is
regarded as resting with the two Ministrfes, then they will become
targets of public impeachment.
MITI has so far been uph~olding the stand that it cannot, accept the
Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill general outline, submitted
by the Postal Services Ministry to the LDP Couanunications Department
on Feb. 24, As for the reasons, MITI has listed the following points:
(1) The Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's recommendation
should be respected; and (2) ~n order to relieve medium and small
znterprises and other enterprises, which cannot afford to have their own
computers, and which will be placed in a disadvantageous position, when
comoared with the ioint use of circuits by big enterprises, the liberalization
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�
of the use of circuits by the persons concerned or the joint use
thereof, including message exchange, should be carried out. MITI also says
tf~t con~erning these requests, t:~e Public Tele-Communications Law need
no~ n~c~ssarily be revised, and that there will be no objection to the
realizing thereof on tha basis of a Ministry ordinance or regulations.
Kev Is Preservation of Secrets
On the other hand, the Postal Servi.ces Ministry maintains that it
cannot regard message exchange, which is telegraph- or telephone-like
service, as information-processing Cservice], set forth in the expanded
interpretation by MITI. Furthermore, it has made no concessions, from the
:tand that in regard to telegraph- or telephone-like services, the
preservation of communications secrets is absolutely necessary, and that
a set-up should re es�tablished under which the Postal Services Minister
can check them, in some form or other.
It is LDP Communications Departmenti Chief MORI's tentative plan
whicr~ appaared under such circumstances. The main contents thereof
~�m to 1~~ a~ follows: (1) A new bill for the purpose of a high-level
communications servi.ces system, the submitting of which bill to the -
curretit Diet session has already been given up by the Postal Services
Mini~try, will be submitt~d to the next regular Diet session after the
n~.:u � nry preconditions, including the preservation of communications
secret::, are improved; MITI will co-~perate in the submittiny* of the
new bill; and (3) it will not be good if inedium and small enterprises
.~r~~ ~L,i~ ~cl in a disadvanta~~~ou~ ~+o~ ition, compared with big enterpri:;es;
therefore, as "stop-gap" steps to be taken until the Diet passage of the
new bill, measures will be taken to preserve communications secrets, while
on the other hand, permission will be granted for message exchanqe
und~r the use-by-others system, within a certain fixed scope (wider under
the present draft), through confirmation by the Postal Services Minister.
The Postal Services Ministry is said to have decided to "concede on"
(accept) the MORI tentative plan. However, MITI has ~till not accepted
the proposed [system for] "confirmation by the Postal Services Minister."
The talks between the administrative officials concerned are deadlocked. ~
Under this situation, however, the LDP, which has mediated betkeen
*_he two Ministries, will eventually have its ability to govern as the
responsible party questioned. That is why Policy Board Chairman TANAKA
pr~sented a request, asking, "Is it impossib le to have the MORI tentative
plan contain contents which are slig,htly more acceptable to MITI?" So far,
it is not known w}~at is meant by the plan which MITI can accept. However,
the Postal Services Ministry is determined to uphold the proposed
[sy~tem for] "confirmation by the Minister," to the last. The problematical
poic~t~ can be said to have become clear, between the Ministry and MITI
which is planning to prevent the arising of such a situation.
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~
Even if the two Ministries reach a compromise, the incorporation thereof
in the Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill will not be realized
in time for the submitting of the bill to the Cabinet meeting, slated
for the 19th, because it is necessary for each Ministry to conduct checks,
once again. Therefore, it will come about that the remaining point
of compromise will be to revise the Ministry Ordinance or Regulations.
In regard to the problem of whether it will be possible for the two
Plinistries to reach a compromise, within the next two or three days,
the proposed liberalization of data communications has entered the stage
where it will be settled at the last moment.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
CSO: 4106/94
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vn vr r r~.~ha, voa, vl~ i. I
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
REVISION OF POSTAL SERVICES AGREEMENT REp,CHED
Circuit Use for 'Others' Approved
Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIl~UN in Japaneae 16 Mar 82 p 3
[Text]
. - - - _ _ _ _
The Postal Services Ministry and MITI on the 15th reached agreement
on a Public Tele-Communications Law revision bi].1 calling for the
liberalization of data communications circuits, [the work of drawing
up the draft of which bill] had been having hard sailing. The two Ministries
acceuted the "judgment," formed by LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA
who has been making co-ordi:iation efforts. In regard to high-level
communications services, which were regarded as a focal point, the
contents of the judgment are as follows: (1) Under certain conditions,
"others' use" of circuits, which use will be accompanied by the use of telephone-
like services, will be approved only as to medium and small enterpri:,es which
have close business connections; (2) this will be a provisional tentative
step to be taken until a decision is reached on the way of th~ u~C of
circuits as a whole; and (3) as regards the overall liberalization of
high-level communications services, the Government will formulate a
conclusion quickly. As a result, the ampndfng of the revision bill, as
called for by MITI, will be given up, but in line with the purport of the
judgment, the Postal Services Ministry will revise its Ordinance, so as to
pave the way toward use by medium and small enterprises. However, in
regard to the contents of the "certain conditions" which are all-important,
[the judgment] calls for postponing the reaching of a conclusion. The
problem has thus come to an "iridescent end." Due to the agreement
reached between the two Ministries, the revision bill will be incorporated
in the a~ministrative business simplification and rationalization bill
(package bill calling for readjustment of items which require approval or
permission) which the Administrative Management Agency is preparing now.
The Cabinet, at a meeting, slated for the 19th, is scheduled to decide
to submit [the revision bill] to the current Diet session.
In regard to data comaaunications, information will be processed
through the direct connection of computers and eommunications functions,
as in tl?e case of tY~e National Railways' Green (TN: First Class Ticket)
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Windows and the banks' on-line systems. They are said to be the third
communications, after telegraph and the telephone. Under the Public
Tele~Communications Law now in ~orce, a net of vari.ous restrictions is
put up over the use of such data cotmnunications services by private circles.
Therefore, the removal of these restrictions or revision of the Law has
been sought since several years ago.
With regard to the demand for liberalization, centering on industrial
circles, the Postal Services Ministry had originally planned to cope with
it through revision of the existing Law and also through the ena~tment
of a new law (data communications law) which will permit private circles
also to offer high-level comQnunications services in which network
communicat ions services will be extended, with the values of information
enhanced through the processing thereof with the use of computers. But
the new bill contained such contents as to eall for the establishment of
a new approval or permission system. Therefore, MITI, which has demanded
overall liberal.ization, showed repulsion. T'he enacting of a new law
was thus given up, and negotiations were continued on the revising of the
remaining Law now in force.
However, in regard to the revising of the Law, MITI, which sought
tl~~ 1 it~~:~~al ization of high-level communications services, called for
~~pproving "others' use" of data circuits, which are now placed under strict
r~u:;ct~i~c ion:., s:: iri thc: c~::c: of thc use of telephone services, a:: a
m~a~ure toward medium and small enterprises which cannot have their own
cor~~~uttr5. Tt~u~, it to~k tt~t st~snd of securing the virtual liberalization
of high-level communications services. On the other hand, the Postal
Services Ministry em~ha~ized that partly from the stand~oint of
comTminications secrets, it cannot approve the large-scale liberalization
of "use by others" only through revision of the Law now in force. [The
~~roblem] thus h~d hard sailing. In the end, it was decided that the
r~evision b ill will not include that part, due to the TANAKA judgment.
It was also decided that the form of approving it as an exception
will be taken, in accordance with a Ministry ordinance.
Under the revision bi11, moreover, the "joint use" of communications
circuits by two or more companies will be liberalized in principle,
if th~y are to be used between enterprises which have business connections
with each other. Message exchange, in which telephone-like services will
be used, will also be approved if it is to be carried out between
enterpri~es which have close business connections with each other.
It will thus become possible to est ablish new comQnunications systems, for example.,
between manufacturing industrialists and retailers, between tourism
enterprisers and hotel-keepers, and between tra:zsportation enterprisers
at~d warehousing enterprisers.
Moreover, concerning the connection of public communications circuits,
specific communications circuits, and public communications circuits
(~~ublic-specific-public connection) which will r~ecome indispensable
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for Frivate information and communications enterprisers to offer information-
processing networks, it will become an object for the applica:ion of an
individual approval system, on the grounds that there is fear uf its
cau:~ing tl?e utilization of services similar to telegrapn and telephone
:.arvices ~rhich are the regular services of the Nippon Telegraph and
Telephone Public Corporation (NTT). It was also deeided that the connection
of public communications circuits with specific communications circuits
(public-specific connection) will not be approved, either, in the case
of carrying out message exchange.
As regards the liberalization of data conaaunications, the Second
Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council (Chairman: Tosnio DOKO),
in its recommendation concerning the readjustment or rationalization of
tasks which require approval or permission, also says as follows: "State re-
strictions should be eliminated, as far as possible, and efforts should
be made to use the originality and ingenuity of private circles to the
maximum." Moreover, the recoimnendation says as follows: (1) Liberalization
should be carried out, with the exception of the system for carrying out
message exchange (use of telephone-like services), with an unspecified
large number of persons as the objects; (2) in order to clarify the
minimum necessary scope of restrictions, a negative-list formula should ~
be adopted; and (3) in regard to mutual connection using computer circuits,
the standards for granting separate approval should be clarified in case
the granting of such approval is necessary.
Under the revision bill, however, high-level communications services
will be approved only toward medium and small enterprise~ alone. Moreover,
the bill will be submitted to the Diet, with the conditions also left
unclarified. The "TANAKA judgment" calls for the quick reaching of a
conclusion on the overall liberalization of high-level communications
services. It can also be said, however, that the problem has been settled
in the form of retreating to a considerable extent from the purport of
the Research Council's interim recommendation.
Gist of Po~icy Board Chazrman TANAKA's Jud~nent
1. Measures should be taken to approve the transmission of
communications by others under certain fixed conditions, limiting it only
to communications to be used for medium and small enterprisers who
have close business connections.
(1) Procedures should be established on the basis of the spirit of
admini�;trative reform.
. (2) The scope of communications should be studied through co-ordination
with NTT.
~
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(3) This step should be regarded as a proviaional, tentative step
to be taken until a conclusion is reached on the new way o~ the whole
utilization of circuits for use by othere.
2. In order to materialize the above-mentioned measures, co-operation
should be obtained among the Administrative Management Agency, the Postal
Services Ministry, and MITI.
3. In connection with the way of the overall liberalization of the
utilization of circ~its for use by others, I want the Government to
make efforts to reach a conclusion quickly. In that case, MITI should
make a response with sincerity, when the Postal Services Ministry takes
necessary and rational legal measures.
_ -
The Postal Services Ministry and 1~ITI liave agreed on the liberalization
~ of data communications. This has made it possible for medium and small
enterprisers alone to use high-level communications services, though
with conditions attached to it. In,this connection, however, it is
insufficient for the medium and sm311 enterprisers to have mere business
connections with each other. For example, [the establishment of]
certain fixed capital relations between the two sides will become necessary.
In concrete terms, it�wil'1 become possible for medium and small
enterprises, which have such close connections with each other, for example,
to transmit immediately to the other medium and small enterprises
information as to inventory control., the .issuance of orders, and the
transpor*tation of manufactured products through the use of networks
established by private information.and conununications enterprisers.
Howev~r, with regard to the concrete contents of such operation and the
scope of communications, the "TANAKA judgment" also says that "studies
st~ould be conducted through co-ordination with NTT." Thus, the problem
seems to h ave been left to future negotiations for revision of the
Postal Services Ministry and MITI ordinances. ~
However, in regard to the agreement.between the two Ministries
this time, medium and small enterprisea, which do not have capital
relations with each other, will virtually not be permitted to use
high-level communications services. It has been decided t~at it will
be left to the work of revising the Law next year or after. In that
meaning, the use of data comniunications circuits may be said to have
been placed ur~der a"limited liberalization" Csystem], in�'regard to
the revising,;of the Law this time.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
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Liberalized Data Communications
Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 19 Mar 1982 p 11
[~ext]
. _ _ - - . _ _ _
Three Government offices, that is, the Postal Services Ministry,
MITI, and the Administrative Management Agency conducted consultations
with LDP Administrative and Financial Affairs Research Council Chairman
Ryutaro HASHIMOTO on the 18th, in order to decide on detailed points
as to the liberalization of data communications. As a result, agreement
was reached to decide on the general outline of the contents of a
revision of the Postal Services Ministry Ordinance for the purpose of
~arrying out the proposed liberalization, by the 19th when a Public
Telc:-Communications Law revision bill is expected to be decided at a
Cabinet meeting. Moreover, agreement was reached on the following ~oints
in the form of Chairman HASHIMOTO's arbitration award: (1) In ~eciding
on the detailed points, the Postal Services Ministry should sufficiently
accept the views of MITI and the Administrative Management Agency and
decide on the concrete contents quickly; and (2) a new law concerning the
use of communications circuits by others should be studied at the new
Tele-Communications Deliberation Council to be set up within the
Postal ~ervices Ministry.
As regards the framework of the Public Tele-Communications Law
revi~ion bill, Policy Board Chairman TANAKA submitted his judgment, and
generally put an end to the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation.
But th~ phraseology was not clear; therefore, it was hoped that
co-ordination would be carried out between the two Ministries,,in
conn~,ction with the contents of the revision of the Postal Service~
Mini~try Ordinance, accompanying the revising of the Law. On the same
~i~y, o~oreover, MITI revealed that [the problem of] measures for tt~e
prevention of computer crimes will be left to deliberations at the
Industrial Structure Deliberation Council Information Industry Department.
'1't~e gist of the HASHIMOTO arbitration award is as follows:
1. In regard to others' use of [data circuits] for use by medium
and small enterprisers who have close business connections,
(1) Co-ordination with the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public
Corporation (NTT) on the scope of communications should be hastened,
ar~d a cunclusion should be obtained by the time Diet deliberations start,
(2) In order to approve the transmission of communications by
others, the minimum necessary procedures should be established, while
~:on::ideration should be given to maintaining communications order
on t}~e basis of the spirit of the proposed administrative reform this time,
(3) Omitted (TN: Omitted by the newspaper, not by the translator),
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- - - -
(4) Concerning the overall way of circuits for use by others,
e2lurt:, sliould be m~ide to reach a conclusion, as early as possible, and
the, .3Love-mentioned provisional measures should be re-viewed completely at thc
sta~e wr~ere a conclusion will be reached.
2. In connection with the forms of joint use and use by others
in the Public Tele-Communications Law revision [bill],
(1) With regard to the forms of joint use and use by others and
thc~ furms of the connection between computers and of the connection of
public circuits and specific circuits, efforts should be made, so tt~at the
free use of circuits can be secured if it is for data-processing purposes,
as iTi the case of inessage exchange through the use of half-way computers
or tcrminal communications which will be accompanied by data processing,
(2) The public-specific-public connection should be approved under
an individual approval system, if it is for data-processing purposes,
and as to the forms to be approved, efforts should be made to make them
known t}~rough the adoption of contents and formulas, Which are as easy
to understand as possible,
(3) As regards the above-mentioned detailed points, the Postal
Services Ministry should continue sufficient discussions and co-ordination
with the Administrative Management Agency and MITI,
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Kogyo Shimbuneha Tokyo Honsha 1982
CSO: 4106/94
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r t~a ~r r n.t~+a. v~a Ut~ L t
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
BACKGROUND OF COMMUNICATIONS AGREEMENT
New Uses of Circuits
Tokyo NiHON KETZAI SHII~IBUN in Japanese 17 Mar 82 p 3
[Text] ~
~ - - _ - - - _ _
It has been decided that the Public Tele-Communications Law revision
bill calling for the liberalization of data communications will be finally
submitted to the Diet after being decided at a Cabinet meeting, slated
for the 19th. When compared with the Law now in force, the revision
bill approves large-scale liberal~zation as to the "joint use" of data
circuits by enterprise groups. However, in regard to "use by others"
which will open the way for the use of high-level communications services
by private circles, it does not call for the overall removal of the
:~trict t~~striction framework. It seems that discussions on the
liberalization of circuits, which discussions have been left out, will
b~c:ome a focal point also during Diet deliberations. This paper probed
into the tasks left behind toward the use of circuits, the way for which
use will be opened through revi:sion of the Law, for the first time,
and also toward the complete lioeralization thereof.
"Group" Restrictions Eased
Restrictions on the joint use of specific communications circuits
by enterprise groups will be removed on a large scale, due to the
revision bill this time. Under the Law now in force, enterprise relations,
in which joint use will be permitted, will be limited to the "considerable
business connections," prescribed by the Postal Ser.v.ices Ministry Ordinance,
including connections, for example, (1) between manufacturing industrialists
and sales companies, (2) between manufacturing industr~.alists whl.ch
have close transaction connections with each other; (3) between banks,
and (4) between aviation companies and tourism companies. In other
c;ises, [such joint use] will not be approved, even if there are close
connc~cti~ns, from the standpoint of capital alignment or physical
~iistribution. It is necessary to wait for the Posta"1 Services Minister
to gr~nt individual approval.
Also, in regard to the standards provided for in the Ministry Ordinance,
approval will be granted in the case of [joint use] between manufacturing
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industrialists and sales companies, and appnoval will not be prantrd
in tt,e ca~e of [joint use] between manufacturing industrialists and
warehuu:~e companies,which keep their products in custody, or between
those industrialists and transportation companies, which transport their
products, no matter what close transaction connections the manufacturing
industrialists and the companies may have with each other. Such an
imbalan ce was pointed out.
Under the revision bill, these points will be corrected, and [joint
use] by enterprises, which have been continuing transactions with each other,
will be liberalized in the case of its being accompanied by data processing,
irrespective of the type of enterprise. For example, Automobile Sales
Company A is showing good busi~ess results, and stockpiles at its branch
offices become insufficient. Under the present system, in that case,
Company A knows about the fact through the use of specific circuits
between its Head Office and the branch offices, and asks Transportation
Company B for transportation from its plant, and not through the use
of such circuits. However, under the re~ision [bill] this time,
Company A can have specific circuits for joint use also with Company B,
and an accurate transportation control system will come to be carried out.
In that case, moreover, message exchange, in which the circuits
will be used in the same way as in the case of telegraph or the telephone,
will be approved, if the two sides have "close business connections"
with each other, as can be seen, for example, in the following points:
(1) One of them holds more than 10$ of the other party's capital, (2)
the amount of transactions is eq,ual to over 20$ of the tot al amount,
~nd (3) they have business tie-iip relations with each other. Warehouse
C~mpany B(TN: sic) can transmi�t order slips to the branch officies.
Tt~is means the granting of approval for message exchange which "i;: banned
in principle."
Doubts About Effects of Estab lishment of Special Exceptions
_ _ - _ _
It is "use by others" which means that specific circuits, leased
?-,y information-pr~cessing companies, etc., from the Nippon Telegraph and
'falephone Public Corporation (NTT) or the Kokusai�Denshin Denwa (Telegraph
and Telephone) Company (KDD), will be offered for data communications
between or among a plural number of customers. Under the Law now in force,
a~roduction, sales, and inventory control system can be established
~nly with regard to manufacturing companies and sales companies and other
customers who t?ave business connections. Under the revision bill, however,
othc:r companies, which have transaction connections, can be incorporated
ir~ such a system. With this, it will become possible to establish a
pt~y~ical distribution cycle of manufacturing, warehousing, transportation,
~aholesale, and retail, with an information-processing company (computer
center), which has its own computers, as the nucleus, as far as use by others
is concerned.
- In the case of use by others, hawever, message exchange will be banned
in principle. The judgment, given by LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA
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on the 15th, also only approves the establishment of an exception,
:~~=,ying as follows: "Under certain fixed conditions, approval shquld
b~~ granted, limiting it to medium and small enterprises whicn have close
business connections." This step has been incorporated a~ a measure
to relieve medium and small enterprises which cannot secure the separate
o~~ ;-~ir~t use of data circuits. Iiowever, doubts are already being expressed
al,out the actual effects of the establishment of such special exceptions.
"If as 'close connections' as in the case of big enterprises ~r: ~o
be sought of inedium and small enterprises, i~t will rather bind the special
n;,ture of the medium and small enterprises which tend to exercise th~~ ~ r
originality and ingenuity. This will become a problem, from the standpoint
of forming a flexible industrial organization" (Policy Concept Forum Standing
Sponsor Hajime HIROTA). From the standpoint of users, the following view
was expressed: "The scope of inedium and small enterprises is not clear.
Communications are not connected with the problem of whether the amount of
c~ipit3l is large or small. Both joint use and use by others are a
transformation of separate use. No differentiation should be made in repard to
liberalization" (Tele-Communications Users Consultative Council Chief of
Secretariat Mikito KONO).
In this connection, the Postal Services Ministry rebutted as follow::: "In
regard to the revising of the Law, it is impossible to remove restrictions
b~~yon~l this, in order to preserve communications secrets." It also
~xplai;~ed that due to the establishment of such a special exception,
the e~;tending of mail-box service, one of the high-level communications
:~ervices, will become possible, thus opening a way for the future.
~ 'C?iis is mail-like service in which periodic business-letters will be
sent simultaneously to various customers. However, if strict conditions
~,~re imposed, then rather big gaps will probably arise between the pos~ibility of
"~hould be possible" and its becoming connected with implementation.
Establishment of Public Circuits Network Will Become Possible
_
hloreover, in regard to the mutual connection of public communications
circuits and specific circuits, which connection was strongly requested
by big companies which have branch offices and operation offices on a
nation-wide scale, the "public-specific" connection will be liberalized under
c:ertain fixed standards, though it is now under a separate appmval system.
Th~ "public-specific-public" connection will be shifted to the separate
apE~roval sy~tem,thougti it is banned. Consequently, in the case of big
~,.~m~~~ni~s which have their own respective computers installed at their
1~~�ac] offices in Tokyo and also at their branch offices in Osaka, it will
t-~~~~om~ pc>:;s ible to connect specific circuits , which will become "arteries
betw~:~:u tl~e computers in Tokyo and Osaka and to establish public circuits
nFtwor~k~, wl~ich are equivalent to "capillaries," between each computer and
c;~e operation or branch offices. Also, in that case, however, overall
1 ih~,r,,-~1 iz.3tion will not be carried out, and the "public-specific-publi~"
cor,c~ectiu~~ will be placed under the Postal Services Ministry's surveil]ance.
M~ :...,~~;r exchritige will al:,o 1>e left banned.
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CVA Vl'l'll.1HL UJT, VlrL.1
It is certain that this marks one step forward, when compared with
the Law now in force. However, in regard to the way toward high-level
communication:. services which are all-important, "limited" liberalization
will be carried out. Therefore, the possibility is strong that its
eff~cts on informationized society will only be "limiTed," too.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
Teat for Efficiency
Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 18 Mar 82 p 3
[Text]
_ _ -
There is no other example which was more difficult to understand
than ~the contents of the Postal Services Miriistry-MITI confrontation this
time as to a public Tele-Communications Law revision bill. That is because
technical terms, which are unfamiliar to the general public, were used,
and also because intangible "things," such as computers, com�nunications,
or information, were dealt with. But it is too hasty to try to settle
the confrontation between the two Ministries, regarding it as a mere
struggle over jurisdiction, between Government offices. When tracing
back to the original starting point of the confrontation, we will come
into collision with two options as to whether information-processing
services, which will appear, one after another, due to the progress
of technology, "should be developed, being left to the free originality
a~id iiigenuity of private circles," or whether they "should be restricted,
with importance attached to their public utility."
Charter Flights for Information
In order to make the problem easy to understand, let us replac~
communications circuits by roads. It was the Nippon Telegraph and
Telephone Public Corporation (NTT) which had so far constructed roads
called public circuits (telephone lines) or specific circuits, while
fulfilling the role of a transportation enterprise for transporting
frf~ight called information. It is the Public Tele-Communications Law
~.ir~u the Postal Services Ministry which exercise control over the contents
of such roads and transportation.
However, computers and other types of low-priced electronic equipment
and apparatuses appeared. It is good to consider this equipment and
apparatuses to be machinery and appliances for processing, treating
in advance, and packing freight (information) to be transported along
roads called circuits, so that it can be used as soon as it arrives.
1'hat is why data communications, which connect computers and circuits,
are called "added-value communications services," though the telepho~ie
and telegraph transmit information as is, without processing the contents
thereof.
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. _ _ -
_ _
Therefore, enterprises and information-processing services
enterprisers, who have computers, that is, machines for packing and
processing information, came to lease circuits from NTT, in order to
promote the efficiency of their transportation services. This is a so-called
r charter flight for the transmission of information.
In this connection, the "joint use," which has become a problem
in regard to the revision bill this time~ means a charter flight or an
exclusive road to be used jointly by a plural number of enterprises,
such as food companies and refrigerator companies. The revision [bill]
~ this time calls for carrying out liberalization to such a considerable
extent that various kinds of information can be transmitted through the
use of the circuits.
On the cther hand, "use by others" refers to the form of the use of
circuits, centering on the information-processing services enterprises,
and it can be likened to local transportation business. It is business
in whic:h inf~rmation as to an unspecified large number of persons will
~e transmitted through the use of circuits leased from NTT. When compared
witt~ the joint-use [formula], strict restrictions are still imposed on
the method of packing the freight to be transported and the destinations
th~rr:of. ~
Procedures for the Future Irisdescent
HITI, which wants to promote the development of the information
industry, centering on computers and software, would like to develop
r~ew services and demand through liberalization of the use of circuits.
On the other hand, the Postal Services Ministry is taking the stand that
communications services are strongly of a public-utility nature, and
tt;at even in order to preserve communications secrets, it is impossible
to ease restrictions. This was the basic point of the Postal Services �
htinistry-MITI confrontation this time.
In the end, with regard to LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA's judgment
this time, the Postal Services Ministry only approved liberalization
to the minimum extent which is conceivable. As to through what procedures
t~e remaining liberalization problem should be settled from now, it was only
decided that "the Postal Services Ministry, MITI, and the Administrative
Management Agency will co-operate with one another." Thus, an "iridescent
settlement" was reached, without showing any concrete direction.
What is tt~e liberalization of what remains? It means a field
which is called high-level communicatfons services. The focal po'.~:t is
whether exchange between the data communications systems of different
enterprises will become possible through the establishment of networks
which will con~ect a plural number of computers to the communications
circuits of NTT. As for computers, thQ words to be used will differ,
according to the manufacturer or the age when they are produced. In order
to coni~ect them, it is necessary to go through a computer which is
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rva~ vrraa.ina. v.ra. J1tL�
equivalent to an "interpreter." If high-level communications services
are liberalized completely, it will pave the way toward establishing new
information-processing services business which will regard it as its task
to act as such interpreters. The reason for this is that as a result of
ttie free use of thc charter flight of circuits, it will become possible
to estdblish a new line of business in which information of Company A
will be interpreted and transmitted to Company B. In that case, it will
become unnecessary for various enterprises to have overlapped data.
This will also have many points of advantage, from the standpoint of the
national economy.
No Con~lusion Will Be Reached until after One Year?
In the US, such restrictions have already been eased. Also, in Japan,
the Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council has clarified its
direction, to the effect that liberalization should be carried out,
as far as possible. In Japan, however, the problem of liberalizing such a
field has been left to future co-ordination between the Postal Services
Ministry and MITI which are still in a deeply-rooted confrontation.
So far, a direction has not been decided as to whether high-level
communications services should be restricted through the enactment of a
new law (plan of the Postal Services Ministry), or whether such services
should be liberalized in principle through a further revision of the
Public Tele-Communications Law (plan of MITI). It is said that "a conclusion
will reached at least one year hence" (MITI leader).
Wtiether it will really become possible to use computers efficiently,
depends on how such co-ordination will be carried out. Therefore, in order
to prevent the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation from ending up
in a mere struggle over jurisdiction between Government offices, "it is
necessary to consider what meaning the liberalization of high-level
communications services will contain, from the viewpoint of the national
economy" (big information-processing services company leader).
The form of treating or processing information is quickly spreading,
accomnanying the rapid progress of electronic technology. In order to
guide the industrial structure in the direction of concentrating knowledge,
it is wiser to recognize the free originality and ingenuity of private
circles and to maintain the way toward securing the appearance of low-priced
~ervices throu~h the market mechanism concerning competition. The time has
come for considering the information-processing problem calmly, with the
~~:t~er,~l s~ttlement of the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation as a
~ turning point.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
CSO: 4106/94
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
LIBERALIZATION OF DATA C~IIJNICATIONS UNSATISFACTORY
Tokyo TOKYO SSIMBUN in Japaneae 18 Mar 82 p 5
[Text]
-
. _ -
It is good that co-ordination witTi'in t~ie Government fias
been generally completed, in regard to the liberalization
of data communications. But the liberalization is limited,
and the contents are insufficient. The Government should
m~ke further efforts to carry out overall liberalization
along the line of the Provisional Administrative Affairs
Research Council's recommendation
The problem of liberalizing data communications, concerning which
problem the co-ordination of views between the Postal Services Ministry
and MITI has been having hard sailing, has generally come to an end,
in tt~e form of a"judgment" by LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA.
On this basis, a Public Tele-ComQnunications Law revision Lill is
exp~cted to be submitted to the Diet after it is decided at a Cabinet
meeting, slated for the 19th.
The gist [of the revision bill] is as follows: (1) Under certain
fixed conditions, the transmission of communications by others shall
r~~ ~~~~rmitted, limiting it only to [communications] for use by medium
acid smsll er~terprisers who have close business connections; and (2)
hc~w~~vf~r, tt,is shall be a provisional, tentative step, and the Government
shall make efforts to reach a conclusion quickly, in regard to the
ov~r:il] liberalization of use by others. ~n other words, the focal
point is that approval will be granted, though condi~tionally, for
l~riv~,te: ~~nterl~ri:.~~s' partici~ation in the field of "high-level
communications services," which have not been permitted so far, and in
whi~�I~ ,~ommiini~~ation:~ by othr:rs will be transmitted throu~h the use of
circuits leased from the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation
(NT'C).
- - - - -
Anyway, this may be said to be a measure which has advanced by one
st~~p, only from the viewpoint that a new way has been opened as to
hi~;h-level communications service.
As for the contents, however, it is limited to medium and small
enterprises, and moreover, vague restrictions are imposed, such as
"close business connections" and "certain fixed conditions."
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M'UK Ur'r'1l:lAL U,r. UNLY
That is probably because a political compromise was pressed to be
reached in the form of a judgment by the LDP, with regard to the
Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation. However, this is really a
limited liberalization. Even when viewed from the standpoint of the
8econd Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's interim
recommendation, the contents cannot but be said to be extremely
insufficient.
Under the draft Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill,
drawn up by the Postal Services Ministry, the "joint use" of communications
circuits by two or more companies will be liberalized in principle,
if they are to be used by enterprises which have business connections.
The problem is that strict restrictions will still be maintained
as to "use by others," in which private information-processing service
cumpanies will let their customers use communieations circuits which they
lease from NTT.
This will prove markedly disadvantageous for medium and small
enterprises which cannot have their own computers, when compared with
big enterp^ises which will enjoy benefits, due to the liberalization of
joint use, and which cannot help sub-leasing the communications circuits
leased by information-processing enterprisers. That is why MITI
demanded the large-scale li.beralization of "use by others," as a
measure toward medium and small enterprises. It was thus in confrontation
wit;~ the Postal~ Services Ministry.
The urgent problem of revising the Public Tele-Communications Law
tias been settled, due to Policy Board Chairman TANAKA's judgment. .
How~:ver, the reaching of a conclusion only has been postponed,
witki regard to the problem of how to carry out the liberalization
of t~igh-level communications services, whieh problem was regarded as a
very big focal point.
In regard to the overall liberalization of dat a communications,
it will probably be necessary to impose restrictions on the private
circles' extending services similar to telephone service or to take
mca:sures to preserve communications seerets. However, there are
doubts as to the Postal Services Ministry's way of thinking, to the
ef~fect that liberalization eannot be carried out any further unless
tY~~ State holds. the power to grant approval or permission through
the enactment of a new law.
On that point, the LDP's written judgment says, "MITI should
makE~ a response with sincerity, when the Postal Services Ministry
tak~:s necessary and rational legal measures." However, new legal
mc~a~;ures should be studied carefully.
We want tt,e Government to carry out co-ordination from now,
in ~ine with the Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's
recc~mmendation calling for the adoption of a negative-list formula
(fai� carrying out li.beralization in principle and also for clarifying
the minimum necessary scope of restrictions).
COPYRIGHT: 1982 Chu-Nichi Shimbun Tokyo Honaha
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SCIENCE AND TECFIldOLOGY
FREER DATA COrIl~i[JNICATIONS SEEN
Tokyo SANKEI SHIMLiUN in Japaneae 18 Mar 82 p 10
[Text]
The fact may be appreciated t~ia~
t~e pend ni
g problem of liberalizing ~
data communications has generally come to an end, and that it has been
decided that the situation will advance toward liberalization, though
with conditions attached. However, high-level communications
services in question have only been limitedly liberalized. In order to
make data communications more fruitful in the future, it is necessary
to make efforts in the direction of carrying out further liberalization.
In regard to the liberalization of data cotranunications, the Postal
Services Ministry and MITI were in confrontation over the problem of
to what extent the scope, in which private circules can freely use
circuits for data communications, should be expanded. Thus, it has been
having h ard sailing. While clarifying the direction of approving the
proposed liberalization, as a general principle, the Postal Services
Ministry had been taking the stand that it would be necessary to carry
out restrictions. That is why it seems to have come into confrontation
with MI'PI which was trying to avoid the itaposition of restrictions,
as far as possible.
Therefore, it was irapossible to take necessary legal measures, and
it was feared that a situation might occur whereby the liberalization
of data communications would be delayed on a large scale. With regard
to such a confrontation between the Postal Services Ministry and t�iITI,
LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA started mediation efforts, and put an
end to the problem in the form of a judgment. This may be said to have
been timely, particularly because the deadline for the submitting of a
bill is close at hand.
According to the "TANAKA judgment," (so-called use by others),
in which data communications circuits in the field of high-level
communications services will be leased from private information
enterprisers under certain fixed conditions, and in which they will be
used, will be approved only as to medium and small enterprises which
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rv~c vrr~~.ir~l, u~.: vivi.t
_ _
have close business connections. Besides tfie above, it calls for
making efforts to reach a conclusion quickly, with regard to overall
liberalization. This is the gist [of the judgment]. At the present time,
tliis is a realistic option. In that meaning, it can be said to have marked one
~tep forward. However, it probably cannot be denied that it is far
from lib~~ralization in the true sense of the word.
It is true that it is very distant from the liberalization of data
communications, set forth in the Second Provisional Administrative Affairs
Research Council's recommendation, which calls for the liberalization of
data communications circuits, with the exception of inessage exchange
(use of services similar to telephone services) in which an unspecified
large number of persons will be regarded as the objects, and the
curbing of restrictions to the minimum necessary extent if they are
to be carried out. The recommendation also calls for ttie adoption of a
negative-list formula and the clarification of fihe standards for granting
individual approval for mutual connection.
In that meaning, it will probably be necessary to develop the
liberalization of data communications further, from now. The position of
the step this time should be defined as a process leading to such
large-scale liberalization. With this, a period must not be put to the
Problem of liberalizing data communications.
Under a situation whereby the unification of information and .
c~,mTUUt-~ic.~t.i~n:, is being promoted further, the liberalization of dat~
communications is indispensable for establishing a high-level informationized
society. It is impossible to hope for the development of the economy and
society, from now, without securing the development ~f informationization.
- I'rom this standpoint, it is hoped that in order to walk the road leading to
"freer data communications," the Ministries and Agencies concerned will
strengthen co-operative relations among tt~emselves, from a broader viewpoint,
witriout sticking unnecessarily to their own respecti.ve positions.
COPYRIGHT: Sangyo Keizai Shimbun Tokyo Honaha 1982
CSO: 4106/94
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
PLANS FOR URANIUM ENRICI~IlrIENT PROTOTYPE PLANT FIRMED UP
Division of Expenses
Tokyo DENKI SHIMBUN in Japaneae 3 Feb 82 p 1
[Text] The division between government and the private sector has generally
been settled for construction expensea of about 65.4 billion yen on the urani-
um enrichment prototype plant (production on the order of 200 tona SWU annually)
which has been under atudy by the Science and Technology Agency and th.: elec-
tric power industry. Regarding the conatruction coat, in substance: 1) the
Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation, principally reaponsible
for construction, will borrow 25 percent (about 16.5 billion yen) in the pri-
vate market, with the government and the private participants ~ointly guaran-
teeing the debtf and 2) of the remaining 75 percent, the private sector will
provide capital of about 25 billion yen, slightly more than half. The private
power companies have not yet formally made a decision, and since the Science
and Technology Agency is still conaidering general queations including the
problem of location, it will be some time before a final settlement is reached,
but the hurdle of the division of government and private burdens has been
crossed. �
Details Still To Be Worked Out Regarding Power Companies, Manufacturere
The uranium enrichment prototype plant ia a facility to follow the Okayama
Prefecture Ningyotoge pilot plant and ia aimed at improving the technology of
mass productfon by centrifugal separators, confirming its economic viability,
and moving toward making it commercial. It is expected to produce about 200
tons SWU per year of enriched uranium using 20,000 centrifugal separators.
The construction budgrt has been estimated at 65.4 billion yen, and the divi-
sion of the cost of construction between the gover~ent and the private sector
has been a problem.
The Atomic Energy Commiasion and the Science and Technology Agency have
considered even this prototype plant as being eventually included among
commercial plants for which private power companies will be primarily respon-
sible, and have argued that, in the light of budgetary problems, the private
sector share of the construction expense should be anore than half. In con- '
trast, the private power companies have been inclined to resist taking more
- than half of the burden, since the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development
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ruK VrriLIAL u~c. VIVLY
Corporation will be responsible for developing the prototype plant and its
development will be under government direction, and have held to the view that
the 10 power companies, including the Japan Atomic Power Company, should, as
an appropriate degree of cooperation, assume a burden of 25 percent.
In the budget for 1982 the Ministry of Finance has allotted 960 million yen
for development of the prototype plant, and has thus by means of the budget
established preconditions for determining the ratio of government to private
support. However, since the difference between the government and private
proposals was large, it was expected that it would take a long time to settle
the matter.
To deal with this, the idea recently emerged that the Power Reactor and Nuclear
Development Corporation should borrow a portion of the construction expense in
the private market and repay it from the proceeds of the sale of enriched
uranium. It is considered that it would be possible to borrow 25 percent of
the construction expense, some 16 billion yen, and that this could be guaranteed
by the government and the private companies.
Thus the issue became the division between the government and the private
companies of the remaining 75 percent, about 49 billion yen, and the views of
the government were accepted, with the private sector taking a burden of about
25 billion yen, some 1 billion yen more, and the government assuming 24 billion
yen.
Provisionally setting the private portion at 25 billion yen, the private
proportion of the 65.4 billion yen conetruction expense amounts to about 38
percent, about 9 billion yen more than the 25 percent pro~osed by the power
companies. Since the manufacturers of the centrifugal separators will also
assume part of this, such a percentage does not seem to be something that the
private companies cannot accept.
On the other hand, since in this division of burdens the private sector is
taking more than half, by however, small a margin, once the portion to be
borrowed by the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation is put
aside, while direction will continue in the hands of the government, this
agreement on the division of burdens is of such a nature as to make it easy
to persuade the Ministry of Finance.
It is necessary to work out the details of the method of guaranteeing the
loan of the Power Reactor and Nuclear Develogment Corporation, as well as the
division of the private capital among the power companies and manufacturers,
and a final decision has yet to be reached, but in general the proposal has
become solid.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Denki Kyokai 1982
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'DENKI SHIMBUN~Editorial
Tokyo DENKI SHIMBUN in Japanese 4 Feb 82 p 3
[Editorial: "Making Uranium Enrichment Japanese"]
[Text] Ningyotoge on the border between Okayama and Tottori Prefectures is
already piled with snow. A white building to be aeen only about 300 meters
from the tea house (rest house) at the pass is the uranium enrichment pilot
plant of the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation.
Within the pilot plant several thousand centrifugal separators quietly revolve,
making enriched uranium from natural uranium. This plant, which has been in �
partial operation since 1979, was completed and all centrifugal separators
installed last autumn.
The enrichment of uranium requires very high technology, and since the gas
diffusion process used heretofore requires great amounts of electricity, so
much that it has been said that "enriched uranium is canned electricity,"
Japan and many other countries have relied on the United States.
In Europe, Britain and France carried out enrichment by the gas diffusion
method, and later, Britain, Germany, and the Netherlands developed centrifugal
separators through a cooperative entity called Urenco and have progressed
through a pilot plant to the construction of a proper plant and commercial
operation. The requirement for electric power in the centrifugal separation
method as compared to the gas diffuaion method is about one-tenth as high and
it is, moreover, superior in the matter of expansion in accordance with demand.
In Japan, too, in 1972 the Atomic Energy Co~ission deaignated as a national
project the experimental development of uranium enrichment by the centrifugal
separation method to the extent of building and operating a pilot plant, and
took the first step along the path of an autonomous nuclear fuel cycle through
domestic uranium enrichment.
Enrichment technology comes under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and
control of information is strict for all countries, which has encouraged
development of autonomous national technologies.
A subcommittee on Japanese uranium enrichment of the Atomic Energy Commission
deliberated from the end of 1980 through August of last year and presented a
report to the Atomic Energy Commission concerning means of promoting domestic
uranium enrichment in this country after the pilot plant. The subco~nittee
chairman was the late Inoue Goro, deputy chairman of the Atomic Energy
Commission, whose memorial service was ~ointly conducted by the Chubu Electric
Power Company and the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation on
15 December last year, and its membersliip consisted of authorities from the
government, academia, and industry.
According to the conclusions of the aubcommittee, the ob3ective is to begin
operation of a commercial plant between 1985 and 1990, and the uranium enrich-
ment industry should be run by private enterprise. To prepare for a co~ercial
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N~UR UFh'IC1A~ U~~: UNLY
plant it is necessary to have a prototype plant. It is appropriate that the
state lead the drive to plan the prototype plant, with the direct cooperation
of private ~~nterprise.
As a move toward the establishment of private commercial uranium enrichment,
in the spring of last year a Uranium Enrichment Preparations Office was set up
within the Federation of Electric Power Coanpanies. The Power Reactor and ~
Nuclear Development Corporation and three centrifugal separator manufacturers
are presently working on plans preparatory to construction of the prototype
plant.
However, it is said that it is impossible to set a date for the commencement
of construction of the prototype plant due to difficulty in resolving financial
questions such as the allocation of construction costs.
The cost of construction of the prototype plant is set at about 65 billion
yen, and in the interest of early commencement it is at present considered
realistic that the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation should
be responsible for construction and operation, while the private sector, which
will have charge of commercial p.lants, will cooperate closel;.
Should the negotiations between the government and the private sector not be
resolved and the construction of the prototype plant delayed or suspended,
what will happen? The development of centrifugal separators and the technology
of their mass production will continue, as before, centered on the Power
Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation.
However,.the manufacturers of centrifugal separators have already had a great
decline in work related to uranium enrichment with the completion of production
of the centrifuges used in the pilot plant; their factories and equipment are
idle and their technicians are awaiting the start of the prototype plant,
feeling that one day is like a thousand years.
The three manufacturers, in order to gain the advantages of mass production of
centrifugal separators and to achieve the capacity to compete internationally,
have prepared for concentrated production for the prototype plant through
establishment of a jointly owned subsidiary company, and are prepared to shift
smoothly to the construction of commercial plants af terward, but if the
interruption in work continues, there is the danger that these plans will be
frustrated, and that the technology and human resources amassed over a long
time and at considerable expenee will be dispersed.
Concerning the supply and demand aspect of enrichment, there ie the view that
because of subatantial delays in worldwide plans for the generation of electri-
city using atomic energy, at present supply is greater than demand, and for at
least 10 years ahead world supply will meet demand completely, so there is no
need for urgency.
Japan at preaent, with not only a long-tenn contract for enrichment services
with the United States but the recent conclusion of a contract with France for
an adequate amount, feels secure with guarantees, through long-term contracts,
for at least the next 10 years, so there is the aspect that it is difficult to
feel any urgency about domestic enrichment.
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If, however, both for domeatic and foreign consumption, we do not show eome
actual reaulte in domestic uranium enrichment, including ahowing prospects of
making it economically viable, through construction now of something on the
scale of the prototype plant, then several years hence when we may wish to
construct commercial plants this may be difficult to realize.
During such a period the ma,jority of technicians presently connected with
enrichment would change to other fields, large enrichment plants in countries
with natural uranium resources would be co~nitted to joint operations with ~
Urenco and the Americans, and also the level of enrichment technology, once
seen as able to place us alongside the most advanced countries in a space of
10 years through the national project, would have again fallen greatly behind,
and Japan's plans for the production of enriched uranium would co~e to naught,
isn't that true?
Furthermore, if we fail to skillfully take success in development following
the Atomic Energy National Pro~ect to the final stage of creating an industry,
then the methods of promoting the development of atomic energy and the very
structure of industry will be subject to severe reflection and investigation.
Attending the memorial service for Inoue Goro, chairman of the Japanese Uranium
Enrichment Subco~ittee, who had strongly urged the necessity of the early
construction of the prototype plant through close cooperation between govern-
ment and private industry, and while praying for hie happiness in the next
world, I made earnest petition that the day would soon come for the establish-
ment of a new form of motive energy and the nuclear fuel cycle, which was the
dying wish of this man who worked for the development of autonomous technology
and the elevation of Japanese industrial capacities.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Denki Kyokai 1982
9898 ~
CSO: 4106/73
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~'V~\ V\'~IV~l1a/ \.-~r VI~~I{
SCIENCE AND TECEINOLOGY
TOYOTA STRENGTHENS POSITION THROUGH STRATEGIC MERGER
Tokyo BUSiNESS JAPAN in English Mar 82 pp 21-23
[Article by Shozo Hochi, Editor-in-Chief, Business JAPAN]
[Text ] T OYOTA Motor Co. (TMC), also sta'te's EF-iat though both companies
1 headed by Eiji Toyoda, the will be merged on an equal basis, for
world's second largest auto maker, and legal . procedures, TMC will absorb
Toyota Motor Sales Co. (TMSC), the TMSC and take over the latter's
main dealer for Toyota Motor headed personnel. The rates of capitalization
by Shoichiro Toyoda, recently in the new company and allocation of
announced at a joint press conference posts for d'irectors will be decided
in Nagoya that they have signed a through discussions between the two
memorandum for merger. The com- companies. Both will hold general
p~nies will be merged on a fifty-fifty shareholders meetings in the middle of
basis on luly 1. The name of the new this May for shareholder approval of
company will be the same as the the merger. It is most likely that the
current manufacturer, Toyota Motor president of the new company will be
Co., Ltd., and its annual ~ sales are Shoichiro Toyoda and the chairman "
expected to reach more than ~4 tril- Eiji Toyoda.
lion. TMSC was established in 1950 as ~ Detailed procedures for the merger
the main dealer for TMC after having have been examined and discussed by
been separated from the latter in order a committee established immediatel~�
to alleviate a managerial crisis at a time after the announcement of the merger.
when Japan's auto industry was not The formal signing of the agreement
yet fully developed. While maintaining was to be made at the end of this
close connections, the two companies March.
have been benefitting from the advan- As there are gaps in stock prices
tages of the separation as the demand and as~ets betwan the companies, the
for motor vehicles increased world- ratios_ of_ capitalization in the new
wide. However, conditions affecting -co~pany are expected to amount to
Japan's auto industry have changed as one for TMC against 0.8 for TMSC.
auto manufacturing has reached a f~uwever, if both companies hold to
stage of maturity. Furthermore, com� the principle of equality, the ratios
petition among suto makers through- wilt possibly become rr~y-fifty. In
out the world for the small-caz market, that case, TMC shareholders may be
particularly between ]apanese auto granted gratis shares. The new TMC
makers and their U.S. counterparts will also take over TMSC's current
including Gen~ral b1otors IGM), have borrowings totaling as much as ~�120
intensified. The proposed merger is billion as well as such unprofitable
intended to cope more readily with divisions as housing, according to the
the intensilied competiti~n and to leaders of both companies including
s~rengthen the company's position in President Eiji Toyoda of TMC. They
the world car market as the second have thus brought to a halt speculation
largest maker. concerning the establishment of a
The memorandum for the merger separate sales financing company, and
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scparating the unprofitable divisions of 1973. Even before that year, a large
TMSC as subsidiaries. number of Japanese passenger cars
TMSC was separated from 'fMC and were exported to many regions of the
established as a sister company in world. However, explosive sales of
1950, as mentioned above, in order to Japanese cars did not start until oil
receive joint financing from several prices were continuously hiked by oil
banks to overcome the managerial producing countriea.
difficulties of TMC. They have been Followed closely by Nissan Motor
closely cooperating with each other Co., TMC assumes top place among
and succeeded in making TMC the ' Japanete suto makers. .Based in
second largest auto maker in the world Toyoda City, Aichi Prefecture, TMC is
after GM. However, Shotaro Kamiya, now capitalized at ~�107 billion and
honorary chairman of TMSC who was staffed with 48,757 workers. TMC
the first president of the company, produced 3,220,000 cars last year with
died in December 1980. Then Shoi- sales totaling ~�3,506,400 million. As
chiro Toyoda, who was vice president of June 1981, its annual recurring
of TMC, became president of TMSC profit amounted to ~227,500 million.
last lune. At that point, many people TMC enjoys top position in both sales
involved in the auto industry began and profit among all manufacturing
predicting that the companies would enterprises in Japan. It boasts that it is
merge after Shoichiro Toyoda had free of borrowings, and its net assets
served for a while as TMSC' president. amounted to as much as ~�1,098,400
The merger was expected to materi- million at the end of last June.
alize some time in 1983. However, As for Toyota Motor Sales Co., it
since the Japanese auto industry has was established in April 1950. Located
undergone drastic changes in recent in Nagoya, its capital amounts to
months due to trade friction d+ith ~23,717 million and its staff totaled
advanced industrial countries and 5,161 as of the end of last September.
other international factors, and effec- TMSC's sales reached ~3,590,?00
tive measures to cope with these million with a recurring profit of
serious problems were required, the ~57,800 million as of March 1981.
proposed merger of the two companies The expected sales of the new TMC
materialized much earlier than ex� will amount to some ~4 trillion be-
pected. cause curnnt sales by TMC of auto
Established in August 1937, four parts being sold to its related com-
years before the outbreak of the panies will be added to the above-
Pacific War and a month after Japan mentioned TMSC sales. The net assets
invaded China, Toyota Motor Co. of TMSC amounted to ~273,800
_ produced 9.8b0 cars in its first year of million as of last September.
operation. During more than a decade In 1969, TMC produced 1,470,000
after the establishment = including cars and assumed fifth position among
aimost four years of Japan's hostilities world auto makers. In 1972, the com-
with the Allied Powers - the company pany's output exceeded the 2�million
produced mostly trucks. for military level. In June 1979, its aggregated
use along with some passenger cars. exports since its first export shipment
Although N'orld War Il terminated in in Augu~t 1957 exceeded l0 million
August 1945, the company was not units. TMC's aggregated output finally
ahle to start regular operations im- exceeded the 30-million mark in
niediatel~ The world's car market was December 1980, assuming second
duminated by U.S: made cars. There place only after GM.
w;~s nu way for any )apanese car The proposed merger is a result of
maker to wedge itself into the world the judgment of both companies that
car market at that time. One reason the current separate setup is not strong
was abvious: technical levels of enough to cope with the competition
Japanese autu makers were not high for the world's small-car market.
enough to compete with U.S. car General Motors is now spending as
makers. much as a~~1 billion to develop small
The oppurtunity for moving into cars. GM's i-~get is said to be aiming
the world market came when Japanese for a 25�~ share in the world market
manufacturers succeeded in producing including the market for small cars.
small cars with high fuel ef~ciency, For this effort, GM is mobilizing all
particularly after the first oil crisis in the strength and faciGties of its sub-
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rvn vrr~~.~r~.. vi~a.~
Table 1. Comparison of Leading Auto Makers
Toyota N~ GM
TMC TMSC
. Capital (~1 bil.) 100.7 23.7 84.6 171.6
(a780 miL)
Sales (~1 bil.) ~ 3,506.4 3,590.2 3,016.2 12,694.0
, ($57.7 biL)
~
~ Recurring profit ; 227.5 57.8 166.1 -167.2
(~1 biL) . (-$760 miL)
Employees ; 49,000 5,000 ~''.000 746,000
Output (units) 3,220,000 - 2,584,000 4,750,000
(Note) As of June 1981 for TMC, as of March 1981 for TA4SC and
Nissan, as of December for GM.
sidiaries and related companies scat- a strategical view point, however, this
tered throughout the world. lf GM's setup is no longer either effective or
strategy is successfully developed, even efficient. While TMSC has been active
Toyota will have to face extremely in promoting its internationai strategy,
difficult problems. TMC has not been necessarily in
Toyota's long-term strategy is agreement with all of TAfSC's pro-
called "Global 10" reflecting its goal grams. For example, TMC has been
to secure a 10�/o share of the world somewhat cautions in promoting its
market, enough to make its base in the international strategy, such as estab-
world car market firm enough to lishing loal factories in overse~� mar-
survive despite GM's powerful chal- kets. ~
lenge. TMC has already established a In fact, Toyota has been ap-
share of more than 896 of' the world's proached by foreign car mazkers on
car output. Toyota has ao far been several occations for tieup deals, but
successful through establishing a no deals have ever been successfully
unique rationalized production setup cuncluded because of this cautions
concentrated in only one area (Aichi attitude projected by Toyota. The
Prefecture) and exporting inexpensive proposed merger, however, is
but high-quality cars to :dmost every definitely intended to unify both
country in the world. companies in intemational strategical
In the 1980s, however, "the small operation. _
car war" will be waged on a worldwide On the domestic front, except for
scale and protectionism in the auto sub-compacts, Toyota succeeded in
industry is likely to develop into a increasing its domestic market share
serious problem. ln fact, Japan's car by 1 point to 38.3% last year. Mean�
industry has been forced to restrict its time, Nissan's share levelled off and
exports to such industrially advanced remained at 29.1%. Toyota has as its
regions as the United States, West target the sales of more than 2 million
Germany, Britain and other European cars domestically by 1985. Toyota
countries. Even developing countries believes that if this share is achieved, it
are striving to establish an auto in- can hold firmly to the leadership in
dustry as a key industry for their the domestic market. With the current
industrailization. They are already separate setup, however, it is felt the
urging that more parts produced in goal will be hard fo reach.
their own countries be used in But their views have not always
lapaneae-made car bodies. . been in agreement. When Nissan suc-
The current separate setup of TMC cessfully created a~oom for turbo cars
and TMSC is satisfactory for the and Toyo Kogyo succeeded in selling a
production and overseas sales of great number of its highly popular
finished automobiles. With a view to Familiar models, TMC criticizedTMSC
advancing into the worid market from for its lack of effective market re-
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scarch efforts, and TMSC complained midwest~ many industrial robots are
expected to be used for the uniformity
that TMC was concentrated only in of car quality and the rationalization
producing cars inexpensively and over� of production.
looking the need to develop new cara Along with theu moves of the
to meet market requirements. It is true lapanese auto makers, major Japanese
that the separate setup put a barrier to auto parts makers also have decided to
- the flow of information betwan the move into the U.S. for local pro-
two companies. duction.
The proposed merger is definitely The location of To~�~ta's new fac-
intended to overcome such problems tory in the U.S. should be a place
and to establish a firm base for future where the labor situation is better than
operations both at home snd abroad. in Detroit, the center of the U.S. car
The table provides a comparison of industry, no far from the Northern
the world s three major auto makers - gart of the U.S. where many suto parts
Toyota and Nissan in Japan and GM in makers are concentrated, and should
the U.S.: be along the Mississippi River because
At the time of this writing, one auto parts will probably be trans-
Ieeding newspaper in Japan reported ported from )apan in the beginning of
that Tuyuta Mutor Co. has decided to the operation.
build a passenger car assembly plant in According to an interim account
the U.S. The lacation of the plant will settlement for Toyota Motor Co. for
be somewhere in the midwest and the the current annual term ending this
plant's yearly output will be 200,000 June, its sales have increased by 12.9%
to 250,000 units. It will be completed to ~1,870,588 million~ a record high.
in .1985 or 1986. The reason Toyota With its merger with TMSC nearing,
has made this decision is that it feels this account settlement is a crowing
trade friction will never be mitigated, g~ory for TMC as this is the final
and restrictions placed on lapan's car account settlement to be made by
exports will be further strengthened TMC as a single company. TMC's
without hope of their being lifted, rccurring profit registered ~ 140,740
With the merger of TMC and TMSC million, up 36.8�r6 and the second
nearing, Toyota seems to have tried to highest in its history Its profit showed
impress the world with a strong image an increase of 16.1% to ~`66,48~
of the new-born TMS. million, the third highest ever re-
As for other ]apanese auto makers, corded. For this fiscal year, sales are
Honda Motor is now building an expected to register ~3,800 biUion,
assembly plant for passenger cars in recurring profit ~227,500 m~lion and
Ohio for completion at the end of this Profit ~�132,700 million.
, year and Nissan Motor is working to During the haif-year term as men-
complete a new factory for trucks in tioned above, TMC's output and
Colorado. According to President Eiji domestic sales accounted for 74'_,''00
Toyoda of TMC, it intends to expand units~ up 6.9�6, while its exports
ics sales in the U.S. by having a totalled 799,072, down 9.4�~. If both
product~on base in that country. Major ~are combined, TMC's tota! sales
parts including engiries will be trans- amounted to 1,541,272, down 2.27.
ported from lapan for the time being, Its output also decreased by 2~I~ to
but TMC w~l try to raise the rate cf 1.540,968 units. Despite the decreases
parts to be procured in the U.S. In the in output and exports, TMC was suc-
future, TMC will make the plant a cessful in increasing profits because it
completely integrated factory which raised export prices and enjoyed other
will also produce engines. favorable factors.
TMC has been unresponsive to 7'he new Toyuta Afotor Co. will be
frequent approaches from UAW (The accommodated in a new buildinF
United Auto Workers Union) and currently under construction near the
groups related to the U.S. Congress for Korakuen Baseball stadium in Tokyo.
establishing plants in the U.S. In ad- The construction was started in
dition, though TMC was continuing February 1980 on a site of some 7,900
neRotiations with Ford Motor Co, for square meters at a total cost of some
joint production in the U.S., no ~~g billion. The building with five
fruitful results have been seen. The basement floors and 19 floors ahove
� nrgotiations ha~~e been frozen since ground will soon be completed, to
last year. serve as the neW Tokyo otfice for tl~e
In the new plant to he built in the merged company. p
COPYRIGHT: The Nihon Kogyo Shitnbun 1982
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MUIi VrMII:IAL UJ~ UNLY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
MOONLIGHT PROJECT SUCCEEDS IN RECYCLING ENERGY RESEARCH
Tokyo BUSINESS JAPAN in Enqlish Mar 82 pp 89-93
[Article by Takehiko Shimura, Technical Official, Agency of Industrial Science
& TechnologyJ
[Text] COME 60% of Japan's energy con= raising the temperature ~~f heat energy
?J sumption is accounted for by in- contained in such warm waste water to
dus~ries. However, about 5046 of the a level of 100 - 150�C, expanded
industrial energy is simply dumped applications will be made possible in
into the environment in the form of both our daily living and in industries.
exhaust gas or warm waste water _Production_ of hot water of about
withoui being fully utilized. ln Japan, gp�C and cold water of about 5�C
it is an cssential task from the stand- from warm waste water will pave the
pomi :~f e;onomizing energy consum~ Way for regional sir conditioning.
tion to rec~wer this tremendous quan- Accordingly, research and develop~
tity~ of waste heat and to recycle it in ment of a new technical system have
an effective way. been conducted to work out a com-
Development of entirely new tech- pression-type heat pump system and
nologies is required fur the efficient an absorption-type heat pump system.
utilization of waste hcat, since existing ~e compression-type heat pump
technologies are not capable of recycl- sys~em is designed to recover heat
~ ing such waste heat in an economically energy from the warm waste water
feasible fashion. with a temperature of 30 - 60�C
Based on this concept, research and discharged in large quantities from
. development of new technical systems factories and plants and to obtain hot
to utilize w~ste heat was started in water with a temperatute of 100 -
fiscal 1976 ati a quasi-large�scale proj- 160�C which ia most suitable for
. ect for tl~~� purpose ~~f developing rational utilization in the community.
technologi~~s to recover and utilize '~'he absorption-type heat pump sys-
waste heat from factories and plants tem, on the other hand, is mainly
including steel mills. Alon~ with the intended for regional air conditioning.
initiati~~n in fiscal 1978 of the "Moon- These two pump rystems will be de-
light {'roject" which is intended to ~ribed in some detail below.
devel~~p new technologies to cut ener- - -
gy cunsumption in general, the former ~mpression�Typ~ Heat Pump System
project was absorbed into the pro- 'T1ie objective as to develop a cum-
. ~~m preaaion-type heat pump system to
We wouid like to introdua in this generate hot water oo steam w ith a
article some technical aspects of some temperature from 100 to 160 C uti-
new heat pump s~�stems which have ~~B hest from warm waste water
heen devcloped as a part of the re- a temperature of 30 - 60�C with
search and development of new techni� a capacity of at least 1,000 m Ih�
cal systems to utilize waste heat. T1?ermal efficiency as expressed by
Steel mills discharge huge�quantities ccefficient of performance (C'OP: !he
of warm waste water of comparatively ratio of generated heat to drive cn, r-
lc~w temperature. If we succeed in BY) ~ould eome to over three in th~
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~iagram 1. Compression�type heat pump system Utilization plan~
Screw compressot
~ Hot water
tempentun (100 - 160�C)
generator
_ ^
i y
n m ~ F
~ew cype~aporizet ~ i i~
Exhaust heat suurce ~ i
~
~ b ~
, ,
_ ~
~ ,
K'arm wute w�ater u
' ~~1
(30 - 60'C) i .
~
f -
L_
_J
case of most exacting condition, name- This haa led to the development of a
ly: the production of steam with a screw compressor adopting a liquid jet
temperature of 160�C. mechaniem with separate channels for
In order to realize a hi~;h-perfurm- sealing and lubricating oil and for
ance heat pump system confurming to freon.
the above-mentioned specificatians. a New type vaporiur - In general,
system has been adopted to raise warm waste water is assumed to be
temperature with a compressor on the polluted and corrosive. Therefore, the
low-temperature side and through the system envisions new-type vaporizing
principle of exothermic absorption of equipment adopting the principle of
the solution of lithium bromide (LiBr) flash vaporization of the warm waste
on the high-temperature side of the water conducted to a low-preasure
system (Diagram 1). chamber. The low-pressure steam
Research and development were produced in this way heats from out-
starled in fiscal 1976. The develop~ side and vaporizes the medium rising
ment of all cumponents was finished in the vertical pipe system. Thus heat
by 1979, and a pilot plant driven with is transferred from waste water to the
a diesel engine was assembled from medium.
these components in 1980. Running High temperaturc generator - As the
tests of the pilot plant were conducted heat pump system to be developed has
in 1981. The feasibility of the warm high temperature raising capacity, the
waste water drive rystem and .the condenser adopts the exothermic
cascade compressor was studied ~ system using a solution of lithium
systems meeting the diversity of waste bromide instead of the previous simple
heat sources. Basic technologies are shell and tube type. This enables tem�
brief]y outlined below. perature raising of 20 - SO�C. The
Screw compressor - Production of a � sacalled counterflow heat exchanger
temperature of SS�C was sufficient for is applied in the absorption and con-
the previous heat pump system for sir densation process in order to enhance
conditioning. Temperature inside the temperature raising characteristics.
compressor chamber stayed at 60 - Others - A warm waste water drive
70�C. However, the prescnt system system dispensing with an outside heat
" requires the generation of a tempera- source and a flash-type high tempera-
ture af about 110�C at the compressor ture generator featuring high resistanGe
outlet, so that the temperature inside against pollution and corrosion have
the compressor chamber rises to 110 - been developed to meet the high diver-
120�C. Hence, freon (medium) and oil siry of industrial waste heat and utiliz-
are expected to decompose through ation condltions. ln addition, a com-
~ heat and mutual reaction ~n a conven- pressor-type heat pump with s cascade
tional compressur of the oil-seal type. system has been perfected, featuring
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r~K urr~~~nL u~~ urv~t
an oIl jet on the low temperaturc side Absorption-Type Heat Pump System
and a liquid jet on the high tempera- The design of the Frst-type absorp~
ture side. tion heat pump called for the recovery
of wasie heat of 30 - 60�C to obtain a
Pilot Plant temperatun of 70 - 95�C with COP of
A~pilot plant combining aU the 1.67 for the single stage type and 2.0
components was bw7t on trial to estab- for the double atage rype.
lish the technologies of a heat pump The design of the second-type ab-
rystems tor gaining higbh-temperature sorption heat pump system called for a
water from 100� to 160 C from waste system which is operable when the
. water with a temperature of 30 � 60�C. temperaturc difference between the
The total energysaving type pilot cooling water and the waste heat is
plant (with an output of 450,000 considerable. A COP of 0.5 wu aimed
kcal/h) is ~natwentieth in size as at for single stage operation. 0.?5 for
compared with an actual plant and is double stage operation and 0.75 for
driven by a diesel engine (Photo 1). As high-efficiency , with a target cem-
a result, ~ 1009'o thermal efficiency perature of 135~
(the r,~tio of developed heat to heat The deaign of the ice-making cycl-
input of the diesel engine), corre� ing machine called for the production
sponding to COP = 1, has been obtain- of ice with its large latent heat by
ed for temperature generation of ineans of an absorption heat pump
160�C. (COP = 3 for the axial drive cyole. Target temperature of minus
power ot the compressor) This per- 10 to minus 15 C and COP of over
. formance basically corresponds to the 0.36 were envisaged, respectivel~ .
original target value. lt has been eon- First-type absorption hwt pump rys- .
firmed further that thermal efGciency tem - This heat pump system (Dia-
reaches 170~b for 110�C temperature gram 2) followa the concept of the
generaR'1,on. conventional absorption�type hot and
Thus~the pilot plant has been found cold water dispenser. However, there
to develop the performana originally were numerous problems to be solved
aimed for in the project. In addition~ including the corrosion by lithium
components such as the compressor, bromide and overall thermal balance in
high temperature generator snd con- view of the higher operating tempera-
denser can be uaed singly ,s a heat ture. The research consisted of repeat-
pump system. Some ue already being ed construction and nmodeling of
operating in this way. trial equipment with an output of
~ Diagram 2. Absorption�type heat pump system
Hip,h tempcraturc gcneralion Absorption ond Gquid
(Cold media condmsation) condensation
Rehcated rn~a 111 ~ ! fa ~nW hai ~wra !1) Ip
or
(Codln~ ~ntu 1711C7) i (M~um ~r~e wta (2))
4~
Cold ~ Absorptfon A~orpdon Uquid
Air extraction fie~ ~ ~q~;d (Diludon)
~
Wum w~t~ r~ta (1) (21 6 w~ta bd~ hen~d U) (21
a � a
lBrin~. etc. (C7) lCoolhq wyut (Cl)
CO~d , (1) fint�type hut pnmp
L . me ~a . ~ ici ~
~a~~ �~mv
- -
(Fint heat pump only)
Wute hwt recovering Temperature r~ising
(Low temperature genentlon) (Heat abwrption)
140 �
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30,000 to 350,000 kcal~h. The ~bove- producing steam of 115�C from warm
mentioned ori~inal target was com- watte water of 95 C and cooling water
pletely attained when research and of 32�C with COP at 0.57.
development were finished in 1979. Ia.~~~ ~y~g _~e
This rystem is actually operating at development riarted with the search
present in dyeing and olher plants for a cold medi~ and absorption liq-
(Photo 2). uids which do not freeu at a tempera-
- Second-type absorption heat pump ture below 0�C in order to obtain a
system - Research and development brine of the aune low temperature. ~
started with the selection of sn ideal Various combizwtions wen tested with
combination of cold medium and ab- trial equipment. ResearcheR finally
sorption liquid. Various experimental ~~eded in producing a brine of
equipment was built and remodeled in -14�C with COP at 0.38.
the course of research. Water was
adopted as the cold medium and lithi- qewlti of Studiss
~um bromide solution as the absotption ~n we compare the fuel con-
liquid. Mathematical formulas to cal- =wnptioa of a conventional boiler
culate the final temperature depending rystem with a heat pump having the
on various temperatures of warm ~e performance as the pilot plant
waste water and the cold medium were used for a reg~'onal wam~ing plant with
worked out. After a series of prelimi- a capacity of 10 gcal/h~ it is calculated
nary experiments, a pilot plan one- that the latter system can economiu
twentieth of actual size was built to about 1,106 kl of fuel oil per year
establish a design concept for the a~~g that hot water of 120�C is
actual plant, the evaluation of heat obtained from warm waste water of
conducting performana and the anal- 6p�C and that the plant operates
ysis of operating characteristics. The 2,ppp hours per year.
results showed that the originally in� A first�type absorption heat pump
tended performana can be achieved. system with a capacity of 64,800
Hot water of 80�C was succxaafully kcal/h, which is already operating at
obtained from warm waste water of present~ can save 48 kl of fuel oil per
GO�C and cooling water of 1 S�C. year in cases where it is used to obtain
A temperature raising system was not water of 57�C from warm waste
also constructed on trial to obtain water of 35�C.
hi~h�temperature water. Hot water of Thus I have introduced the outlines
90 C was succeufully produced from of heat pump systems developed under
warm waste water of 50�C. In addi- the "Moonlight Project" of the Agen-
tion, control methods to ensure oper- cy of lndustrial Science & Technology.
ating safety and anti-crystallization As mentioned earlier, some systems
steps were studied. have already reached the practical
The research covered the oystem to stage and are in actual operation. They
obtain hot water of rner 100 C as well are expected to disseminate steadily in
as a system capable of producing the future to counter rising costs of
steam. Trial equipment succeeded in energy. ; 0
COPYRIGHT: The Nihon Kogyo Shimbun 1982
CSO: 4120/215
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