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APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/ 10472 21 April 1982 Ja an Re ort p p ~FOUO 24/82) FBIS FOREIGN BROADCAST INFORMATION SEHVIC~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000500050048-9 NOTE JPRS publicatiflas contain information primarily from foreign newspapers, periodicals and books, but also from news agency transmissions and broadcasts. Materials from foreign-language sources are translated; those from English-language sources are transcribed or reprinted, with the original phrasing and other characteristics retained. - Headlines, editorial reports, and material enclosed in brackets [J are supplied by JPRS. Processing indicators such as [Text] or [Excerpt] in the first line of each item, or following the last line of a brief, indicate how the ori~inal inforcnat;on was processed. Where no processing indicator is given, the info~- mation was summa~rized or extracted. Unfamiliar names rendered phonetically or tcansliterated are enclosed in parentheses. Words or names pxeceded by a ques- tion mark and enclosed in parenthe3es were not clear in the original but have been supplied as appropriate in co~text. Other unattributed parenthetical notes within the body of an item originate with the source. Times within itP~s are as given by source. T'he contents of this publication in no way represent the poli- cies, views or at.titudes of the U.S. Government. COPYRIGHT LAWS AND REGUI~ATIONS GOVERNIN~ OWNcRSHIP OF MATERIALS REPRODUCED HEREIN REQUIRE THAT DISBEMINATION OF THIS PUBLICATION BE RESTRICTED FOR OFFI(:IAL USE ONLY. APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPR~VED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY JPRS L/10472 21 T~pril 1982 ~ ~ JAPAN REPORT (FOUO 24~'82~ CONTENTS ~ POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL Suzul~i's Reelectiom Predicted by ICozawa (Harubumi K~ozawa; TFIE JAPAN ~CONOMIC JOURNAL, 30 Mar 82)...... 1 ~ Confrontation Between Komeito, Soka Gakkai Seen (Takehiko Takahashi; MAINIQiI DAILY NEWS, 25 Mar 82)......... 3 Komoto Factor in Elections E~camined (Ken3i Kitahara; ~iE DAILY YOMIURI, 26 Mar 82) 5 Editorial on Weinberger's Proposal (Editorial; ASAHI EVENING NEWS, 30 Mar 82) 6 ECONOMIC Shipbuilders Expand Businesa in Non-Shipbuilding Fielde (~eorge Nakamura; INDUS TRIA, Mar 82) 8 . Aluminum-Refining Facilitiea To Be Discarded (DTIflON KE.IZAI SHII~UN, 4 Mar 82) . . . . . . . . . . 18 Cardboard Induatry Forms Depression Cartel ~ (Shinichi Kaizaki IntPrview; NIKKEI SANGYO SHII~UN, 19 Mar 82) ..........................a.......:................ 20 S CIENCE AND TEQiNOLOGY Accurate Instrumentation for Safe Plant Operation (Shinaaku Kinugasa; TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 23 Semantic Gap in Computer Architecture (Noriyuki Kamibaysahi; T~CHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 42 Fifth Generation Computer P�~o~ect (TLCHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 60 - a - [III - ASIA - 111 FOUO] FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000500050048-9 P~1K tlrr~~.ln~, ~?~v~,t Polymeric Materiala tn Electronica (TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 91 Yamaguchi Satellite Communications Center (TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 95 Acous tic Emission Technology (TECHNOCRAT, Jan 82) 98 Polarizing Optical Fiber (TECHNOCRA'T, Jan 82) 101 100kw Wind-Power Generator (TEQiNOCRAT, Jan 82) 103 Competiti.n !~roimd VISI's (~cxriocx~T, J~ s2) ioh Arduous Efforts To Complete Communications Agreement (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 15 Mar 82) 109 Re~~iaion of Postal Services Agreement Reached (NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN, 16 Mar 82, NIIiON KOGYO SHIMBUN, 19 Mar 82) 112 Circuit Use fa 'Others' Approved ~ Liberalized Data Communications Background of Communications Agreement (NIHOh KEIZAI SHIMBIIN, 17, 18 Mar 82) 118 New Uses of Circuits Test for Efficiency Liberalization of Data. Communications Unsatisfactory (TOKYO SHII~UN, 18 Mar 82) 125 Freer Data CommunicatiQns Seen (SANKEI SHIMBt]N, 18 Mar 8c) 127 Plans for Uranium Enrichment Prototype Plant Firmed Up (DENKI SHIMBUN, 3, 4 Feb 82) 129 Division of Expenaes 'DENKI SHIMBUN' Edi torial Toy~ta Strengthens Positj,on Zhrough Strategic Merger (Shozo Hochi; BUSINESS JAPAN, Mar 82) 134 Moonlight Pro~ect Succeeda in Recycling Energy Research (Takehiko Shimura; BUSINESS JAPAN, Mar 82) 138 - b - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFF'ICIAL U:~E ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL SUZUKI~S REELECTION PREDICTED BY KOZAWA Tokyo THE JAPAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL in Englieh 30 Mar 82 p 10 ~Political Scene co~umn by Hari~bumt Kozawa: "Suzuki's Reelection Is Certain, ~ But..."~ ~Text~ In the ~midst ~o( lingering recession and But Suzuki's sides and LDP oiRcials have re~ mounting trade irictio~ with the U.S. and ~~~y said that they will "not stick to the Europe, there is a growing belieC among p~~~~ stance" to pass the revised Public ruling Liberal Democratic Party politiciam ptCice Election La~v through the Diet session that Prime Minister ;lenko Suzuki will cer- Gme. Thus, it the 1982 government budget ta:~ly be reelected to the party presidency ~~u~ of its passage, there ia no prospect cand the premiersirip) in the coming Novem- f~ any political turmoil during the pr~ent ber ele~:tion. Diet session. Political obaervers attributed Suzuhi's U~~ these circumstancea, the biggest . nearly en5uced reelection to the fact~ that: (1) ~a~~e f;,; ?rime Minister Suzuki is trade , the Suzuki Cabu;et has managed to have as- (~ction for the time being. But since the cur= sured the passage at the C~scal 198Z govern ~t Diet session is to eud lxEore the Paris ~ ment budget before the fiscal year starts on ~ April i, atter rejecting the oppas ~~it �f cauntries ixion s de- , s~ted in early Jone. there ia rw praspect of " mand for tax reduction, the biggest con- Wo~.y ~or Suzuki ttiat his adminiatration will troversy in the curient Diet sesaion; (2) that _ be g~~ over trade friction isauea by the the U. and European pressures on Japan a~~tion in the. Diet sesaion. over trdde friction issue.s will not directly af- ~e most worclsome issue for Suzuki, in tect the fate of the Suzuki Cabinet; atid (3) ~b$ ~rd, is the liberalization oE Japan's that even if the Second Ad Hoc Committee on ~*et foc farm ar?d dairy products. includ- Administrative Reforn~s comes up with. gut Suzuki's sidea are rather drastic recommendations on the reQrganiza- um~uc over the iasue, aayiag that "we can tion oE the Japa~se National Railwaya and �p o:hers, it will be in the next aedina'ry Diet solve the matter by resorting to subsidies to session slated atter Suzuki's reelection that fa~~, ~ all other attempts have failed." bills to realize such recommendationa an E~~e�~ ~ ~~r' he proposed. All oppasition parties have demanded that should Eollow budget and administrative re- the ~Government cut taxes, but they have forms or retlationary measures. But cecent- been unable to gain any concrete cdncession~ ly. Suzuki has somewhat gradually chanQ!~ from the Suzuki C~binet on the matter. his stance from emphaais oa fiscal recon- Secondly, major bills that the Government structioa to thesefl~fionary PoUcy side when and the LDP are trying to pass throuSh the he insinuated that there might be a tax re- cun~ent Diet session are only the 1982 budget duction after fiscal 1983.' [n other words, and the revision ~ the Public Office Election Suzuki has adopted the stance propased by Law designed to cha~e the national con- Toshio Komoto, director general of the Eco- stituency system of.~he Ho~ae o~ Councillors. nomic Pi,:~hing Agency, who is expected to 1 FOR OFFICIAL US~ ONI,Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFF(CIAL USE ONLY run~ against Suzuki in the coming LDP presi- dential election. This change of stance could be said to be one of Suzu7ci's moves to pave the way to his reelection. A prevailing view within the LDP is that there ~viU surely be simultaneous elec- . tions for both Houses of the Diet next yesr and if the LDP wit~s both elections, Suzuki will be able to maintain his power, but will �.step dawn, if los~" If one assumes this scenario, in the event Prime Minister Suzuki can no longer dodge taking some decisive ac- tioas on~administrative ceforms, he can dia- solve the Diet and pick ihe issue ~ ihe Japa- nese National Railways, which is under sharp attack for its bankrupt managemeM~ using it as an election issue which will enable Suzuki to rally support of the Liberal Demo- cratic Party rather easily. Thus, the implementation of administrative reform after hia reelection is a crititical test for the survival of the Suzuki Administratioa (Harubumi Kozcwa !a a Nihon Keirai de- puty political editor.) . ~ COF~RIGHT: 1982 The Nibon Keizai Shimbun, Inc. , CSO: 4120/223 ~ . 2 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL ~ONFRONTATION BETWEEN KOMEITO, SOKA GAKKAI SEEN Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEWS in English 25 Mar 82 p 2 ~Nagatacho Doings column by Takehiko Takahashi: "Subtle Confrontation Between Komeito, Soka Gakkai"~ ~Text~ The Kome~to is a politlcal At the tlme ~~~hea it tirst ad- pacty suppotted by t6e Soka vanced into the Diet. _ the Gakkal. The Elrst time that the K o m e i t o c a r r I e d o u t Soka Gakkai advanced into the m o v e m e n t s a i m e d a t National Diet aas ~n 1931 when "purifying the political world." ihree of its members were In this respect the Komeito's elfcted to the House ot Coun� recent attitude has begua to c;llors. � raise some questions. This is In Noveraber 1936 a political because newspaper and organization called Kcemi Seiif magazine reports of political Renmei ~ Clean Polltics movements have been taking Federation) was formed. After up "the relationship betv?eeo 15 seats were won in the House the Komeito and former Prime ot Councillors etection in 1937, Minister Kakuei Tanaka" with aa intra-Diet group calied increasingfrequency. Komeikai was set up. � . A political party called the Dissastisfaction K o m e i t o w a s. f o r m a 11 y recent attitude of the established 'w May 1939. Tt?ee K o m e i t o i s a r o u s i n g purpose was to advance into dissatisfaction ~ in the Soka the Honse of Representatives. Gakkai also. A meeting of Soka In the 1942 general election, five Gakkal youths in the Shibuya Komeito members were ~trict was held on ~Iarch 14. elected. At a gathering held afterward Foilowing a sweeping ad- by members of the ofiicer class, vance, the Komelto stumbled in voices of dissatisfaction were the dual elections [or the House heard about the homeito being ot Representatives and the ~n as having relations rrith House of Councillocs in 1980 aad Tanaka. it now has 33 seats in the House of Representatives and 26 in the "We desire that the Komeit.o House ot Councillors. As the Diet members act by returning second largest opposition party, to the starting point" was one next to the Japan Socialist statement that was heard. The ~ Party, the Komeito possesses a atmosphere was that the strong voice ia the political Komeito Diet members will be world. asked to do so more positively in the tuture. 3 EOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000500050048-9 FOR OF'FtCiAL USE ONLY Voices~ ~ wlthio the Soka haw1~ in t6e case~ of tbe Gakka! critical ot the Komeito Komeito, CDafrman Take~ri is are heard in local disb~icts atso.~ the onty one who cea resist ~ A~niong Iocal assembty~ea W Ikeda tc au1 eactent. The Romeito members tear Wat if some who are saying tbat in TakeiM- is replac~d, Ikeda's next year'a local elections, t6ep~ control over the Komeito vrould ; wW seoede Uom~ tAe Bome(to become abeol~fe. . aud rua as Sote Gakl~ai. cao- T6e . Komeito is concerned~ didates. . " -abont its tvmoted� rel~oa~ip . The Komeito executives are: with Wrmet Prime ~t~'~ undaibtedly aware of this at-: Tanaka. At tbe pr~at tim~ iM mosphere. Nevert4eless, the: ~Taoata ~a ~ud~ed B~~Y relatio~ between Komeitn' ~~e ~ - . . Chairnnan Yashikatsn T~Iceiry . ~ and tocmer :Prlme. Ministeq sevet its relations with Taaaka Tanaka seem to be~quite doae;~ and ag~in launch criticism ot~ Beeaus~ of ~oblfgatioa tor; "~YPo~I~�" � � "various aasistanee� in tp~ Uatil then, because ot various~ past," ~ It seems that t6a circwnstances, ..the Komeito~ Bometfo is uoable to change If~ can only go along asit haa been attltude toward Tanajca. ; ~in~. ~Hoaorary Presidmt Daisuke, ~tight now; the question is~ ~ bceda cartinnes to wield eoo-~ what sUoWd be dooe ~n case~ ~ ' siderable iattuence oner ~ Diet membec Takayuki Sato is Gakkai evpa now. It Is sald thaC foued guilty in fhe Loc~heea' when mention is ~made pt Sok~ tr~al. 'Fbe problem h?volved' Gakkaf eXecutives, the oaly.. Sato's "resi~atba irom the aa~ne spoken by Soka Gakkat Di~ " The'Komeito exeeutives members is "Ikeda.". . are ot tt~ee opWion fhat "Sato � II�da Is well awace ot. th~ ~ will voiuntarlly gtve up his Diet dissatisfaction that the a~em~ seat." They are not thWdng of , 'i bers have ~ concerniag th~+ staading in the forefroat to taBe . Komeito . aad, ii possible. ~ action. r~ould Iike to have someor~ e~ Snch an attitude on tde part o~ replace Kome~to Chairmaa the.Komeito is alao causing a, ~ Takeirf. - � ~ � problem coacerning the ' ~ polit~cal choice to~be made by ~ Under Ikeda? � , middle~of-the �?nad parti~s. � ~ Si~t !f Honorary Preafdent, Thee solidarlty ot the c~trist Ikeda were to meapon this parties is likety to, conie, it ever, openlY, ft. would nm co~mt~er to5 only atter indgment is handed tbe pcbdpk p( "s~paratbo oF~ drnva oa Tanaka. politics � and religfoa." H~ (The.writer is aa advlser to camot,~c~ . tp~t,~�~t ,nwWe .qt~ the Melolch/ Neaspapers and~ lormercbffetedltodal writerl. . , COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Daily News 1982 CSO: 4120/223 4 FOR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFFICiAI, I?SF ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL KOMOTO FACTOR IN ELECTIONS F~FAMINED Tokyo THE DAILY YOMIURI ia English 26 Mar 82,p 3 ~Political Beat coluaai by Renji Ritahara: "rhe Komoto Factor"~~ ~Text~ � Wlth ' tbe ~5~~~ ~~~198~ ` - ~wft~a the~ psrty: Also, IIe !a atrengtheninB budget b~ th~ Honse oi Representattves, . tfes wlth lormer premler Takeo Fukuda, the domeattc acene has become cslm but tormer lorei~ minieter Sunao Sonoda, there are tr~mors beiag caretully v~atch- who beloags ta an independent faction, ed a?lthia the Liberal-Democratic Party and ~ko KaauBa. permanent advlser to (LDP): ' . . ~ the Democratic-Sodalist Party (L~SP). Prlme 11~ni~ter Suzuki and members oi in the area ot policy, he drawa a clear the LDp matnatream are aow paying claae line oi demarcation betweea himseli and attention to Toehio Komoto, director-gea- Suatil~i by etrongly insiating npon positive eral oi the ':~conomle P2anaing ~i8ency ~ecal and economic managemen~ (EPA). ' ~ . ~ . Alt this conaidend~ 8utnki and h1s snp- ~ They are a~ger to 'determine wbether porters aee Homoto =ather Lhan Nakaaone he wW contluuye ta~ rema"'ih. paasive or take aa. the strongeat rival to the premier's bid podtire actlaa~~ pollttcs2~y. Whatever he ~ for reelectlon. doee, thia wiII hava '�an lnnnence oa the Bnt there are some obstaclea and as yet gall~lcsl. dtnstlon. ~ uareaolved factors . which cause problems Almg ait~i. Yaa~iro Nairasone, direc- ior Homoto !a h!a challenging Suauki. tor-g~nasj� M the AdminlatrsLive Maa- Ii there b no pnHminary LDP election sgement A~enc~. Romoto 1s s kadiug and only Dlet maabers have votes, there candicyats tor the -LDP preaidency. 1s 1lttle chance . for Romoto to w!n the Former preader Ral~nai � Tanal~a pointa electloa. ouC th~t Nalcseone eanrot escape from It seems now that the court's verdi~t on the task ot sdmiulstistive reform. T'hen- Tanaks in the Lockheed payos trlala 1s iore. Nara~cae is linlted unwltlin6lY to un11ke1Y to be delivered thla year. There- g~b, fore; th~ LDP wlll eacspe the leared IInliYe Nalaoone, Romoto is lree to �o . turDulence iaternally in s preaidential ahat he wlshes. And iL~ must be noted election yeAr: ' Lha~ at 71, the coming LDP preaidential Wlthont atrong plua iactors, will the election acl~eduled ior November , ls re- very rational and cool Komo�o take such garded as Komoto'a laat chauce. s atep aa to resign from the cabinet and 8ome poliLical obxrvers believe Chat So- rna against Suauki? moto may nsign irom the cabinet around . Homoto is reported in good health and June !n order to prepare htmseli tor elec- unconcerned about hia age and above all tlen campat~ng and manenveriug. ia not an impatient man. Aomoto a:readY hss msde conslderable It ia posaible that Homoto may decide e8orta to expand his influence aithiu the that next sad not this year fa the time I,pp, to malce hta move ahen the Tanaka ver- He haa. bonda with Ichiro Nakagawa, dlct may very well cause a crisia in the director-general of the Science aad Tech� LDP. nology Agencr, snd InternatSonal Trade But in consideriag what the political and Indnstry Mlnister Shintaro Abe, both developmenta might be 1n the near fu- of whom ru~r conai~end "new , leadera" ture, we cannot ignore Komoto. COPYRIGIiT: The Daily Yoffiuri 1982 CSO: 4120/223 5 FOR O~FICIAL U~~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 ~ F'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL EDI1'ORIAL ON WEINBERGER~S PROPOSAL Tokyo ASAHI EVENING NEWS in English 30 Mar 82 p 7 ~Editorial: "Weinberger's Proposals "J [Text] Ia ~is :p~eech at~ tbe Japaa Nationat Prese~ Club. on Marcb ~ 26 a~qd at the n~lat meeting of top US. and Japan defen~e �of5ciata on Manb 27. U.~. Secretary of Defeme. Caspar " W. Weinberger asked Jnpan rapidly to develop the ability ta ~ defend � 1,000 nautical miies of eea�lanes.. In the re~ular. ~ defensq officiab� meeting; be wen~ proposed that measurea for; :.the dafense of tbe.,~laam should be studied in the workin~- ~levd. talks on defeaee in .Hawsn this summer. . Conceruios tbe eea-lane prcblem. tbere are ~t;ll differ-~ . ~~oe~ in ths aay the :~thorities in tba. U.S. and Japan :view; tl~a matta. ~T3e statemea4 that Weiaberger bas made since ooming ta Japan have exprased, as if it were only natural,. tbe Ameticaa inberpretation of the. allacation. of defense roks; _ beta~em the .U.S. ~ and. Jspan. about whicb there is a great ~ dal of disquiet within Japaa. ' In the can of defending the, se~-lanea, tben ii atron~ domeede oppoeition, snd no conxnstu. 'I'he plao to defend .1~000 nautical miles of sea-lanes was fasR broacbed wben tb~ Prime Miniater visited the U.S. in . May � 1981. In~ tbe join't statement, it was' said that Japan ~ � wotild ' maks ~ceater etforta for the defeese of the sea and airspace sround 7apaa. But SuzuYi went beyond the "sitr- re~mding uaa"-and propo~ed the Sgure of 1,00~ nauticat . miles. Now. the ~ U.S. has ~ona a atep further and is trying 'to mske Japen assnme aa evea grester role than the Japanese � eaviss'ed. ~ ~ , . : . . Bat aa~ important poliry eoncerninQ tht defene~ of the' � xa.}anes, ahich cwld mean a reincer~retation of tbe .U.S: ~ ~ Japaa 3acurity 'IYaty, shou}d not~ be presented as a promisa ea tbe U.S witbout being of~icially discassed by the National D~enre Camcil. ' 'I3e 2,000 nautical mile plan wa~ ori~inally proposed ~ by the uniformed members of the Defenx Agency, buc defendin~ 1,000 nautical miks of ses-lanes is a very difficult t~elc eren for tbe U.S. Navy. Some people say that the ~Self-Defea~e Focti~si cannot powbly uadertake the fa~k. One eannot help fearins that the d~fease of the xa-laae~, wbicb is aayway an impaaibb taet~ crill be uxd by the i7.S. ae � ltwer 1n dpnaaqin~ tbat Japan incream its deienu bud~et by more than it iacreae~s�tbe bud~eb for other thiegs. 6 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 F'OR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ T1~e xcond pi+obkm b Weinber~er's ~tatement in hia speecb u tLe Japan National Preas Club: "But Japanese foroea c~pabk of p~ovidinQ ses . s~nd sir defen~e in tbe Northwat ~ Psicific coold complemeat U.S. atratesic aad convendonal force~ sia tbe area." Japan's rok under the U.S: Japan Securiry 'Treaty ~ ls cooperation within t~ tramework of defense ~ only. What n the meania~ of "c~npiementin~ US. :trstegic aad coavm- J tional foroes"? The U.S. rtque:t in tbe Hawaii matin~ laat year. tbat Japan~ snb~tan6a11y increaee t6e number of F-iS tigbters and P-3C antisnbmarine pl~ea it posseaees, can be ~ooostr~ed a mwaina tbat the U.S wanp Jspaa. to atwme the ~ttau~ic role of coupterin~ the Soviet Backfine bomben and mia~afirin~ wbmarine~ ~ If this ia 'so, it ckarIy Qoes beyond tbe ftamework of defense cnly. ~ . � . . In addi6on. Weinberjer w~ent so ~~far aa so .aay, '~e IaQaaeia fonxs today bava not yet reacbed: the point of beiag sbfs to catryc out thar comHtutional mission fully." Thougb th~ n coucbed ia terms that appear to . rapec~. the Constitn- tion. one wtpecp t6at it is~ aimin~ at emsec~lada~ the Coa- etitotion. ' . . , 'Ia' its''`. .dcciaoa to' IiR ibe ban oa the . uea ~oE tbe ~fund3 ~ tor' sbe remodeltn~ oL F~ fI~htera. tbe Qovernanent advaaced the ~w inoerpetistation that judpaeap as w whetber ~omething coostiRuta a:, tbrest to other couatriea caa chan'a u a rpult of developmenb in m~itaty technoloQy. In tbia way~ it has increaaed tha uope of t6e armaaoents th~t t6e SDF caa use. Aad in the matkr of defending 1,000 nautical mika of aea- lane's, it is �tey~n~~: to increaa the xope oP defenae. I~ ambi~uow redefinitions, tLe Del~eose A~encx'a conatant . preeentation of. faia . accompli~ ~and .the viohtion of civilian con'ti+ot�. of the SDF are to ~be prtvtnted, tae Prlme M;aiiter bas to ~tand .bp � tbe principb o~ drfenu only and dbmowtrate bis k~ckrs6ip,.~~Marth 28~'. . ~ , :.r'. . COPYRIGHT: Asahi Eveaing Newa 1982 CSO: 4120/223 7 FQR OFFIC~AL UST ONI,Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 . . . E(70NOMIC ~ SHIPBUILDERS EXPAND BUSINESS IN NON-SHIPBUILDING FIELDS Tokyo INDUSTkIA in English Vol 12, No 3, Mar 82 pp 9-16 [Article by George Nakamura: "Major Japanese Shipbuilders Expand Business in Non-Shipbuilding Fields"] [Text] New Moves Topics naw much talked about in Japanese industrial circles are industrial robots, mechatronics, microcanputers, biomass and biotechnology, to cite a few. All these are industrial areas that are considered to have great ehances of ex- pansion in the near future, and n?ajor Japanese shigbuilding firms are trying to join plans to industrialize products in these fields in one way or another. T'he Japanese shipbuilders also have strong interest in the nation's defense in- dustxy. Last December, the Japanese Go~vernment published the national budget for 1982 beginning on April 1, 1982. The budget, subject to Parliamen- tary approval, provides an outlay of ~t2,586,100 million for defense expendi- tures. The fiqure represents an increase af 7.754$ over the previous year. The grawth rate exceeds the originally-set ceilinq of 7.5$, while the grawth of other appropriations is curbed to a bare minimum to reduce deficits in state finances. Z'he ratio of defense spending to the gross national product is 0.9 3$. Indications are that the Government will continue to give top fiscal priority to defense buildup and that the ratio will most likely to surpass 1$ of GNP in fiscal 1984 or 1985. On the othe'r hand, the shipbuilding industry holds a ma- ~ jor sector of the nation's defense industry. Another area that Japanese shipbuilders rire trying to put their hand to is the ~ ocean dsv~elopment industry in which they can make better use of their technol- ogy than in any othe r areas of industry. The business of offshore structures, centering cn submarine oil drilling rigs, enjoyed 3.ts first golden.era during the past year or two. Submarine oil drilling projects are being carried out in the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Po Hai (Gulf of Chinll) and some. other areas. in the Heaufort Sea (in the Arctic Ocean), Dane Petroleum Co. of . Can ada and major oil companies plan to launch oil drillinq p rojects, and neces- sary equipment has already been ordered. The obtainable amount of undersea oil deposits in the Arctic Ocean area is estimated at 320,000 million barrels in the Middle East. The world's ocean development is steadily expandinc to the icy waters. Japanese shipbuildinq firms are losing no time in preparinq for ocean develapment in the icy waters in the secand golden era. , 8 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 lNLY The challenqe to a eeries of new qrawth industries by major Japanese ship- builders is in line with the policy that they have been pursuing since 1975 - to "break with shipbuilding" - to enter new areas of business. The Beginning of 'Breaking with Shipbuilding~ In 1975, when Japanese shipbuilders experienced~ the adverse effects of the oil crisis, they strongly felt that an unprecedentedly serious recession woutd come sooner or later. As they had feared, new shipbuilding orders stopped coming in 1977. This state continued through 1979~ plung- ing the shipbuilding industry into what might be called a "destructive recession." The industry took all sorts of ineasures to save itself from the predicament. Major shipbuilders cut their produc- tion facilities by 40�io (35% for the entire shipbuilding industry, including smaller shipbuilders and related busi- nesses), set new rules to control ope.ration rates, formed an ' anti�depression ca~tel, suspended the recruitment of new ~ school graduates, cut wages and curbed overtime work. A series of drastic meawres, unprecedented in Japanese indus- uy, was inevitable for corporate survival. ~ ~ While tryi~g to reduce their extra weight, the ship- builders did not forget to take ~ore.measure, that is, to expand the non-shipbuilding business - the inclination toward "breaking with shipbuilding," so to speal.. The structural change in 1975 was not the first. During the 1950s, managers of some shipbuilders tried seriously to balance sales equal~y betwcen shipbuilding and land equip- ment business. Ffowever, during the periad between 1950 and 1975, shipbuilding orders continued to ii~crease, and , the wpp;y and demand siwation was rather stable as a whole. Therefore, shipbuilding did provide a stable source of income. Executives in charge of shipbuilding dominated business in a shipbuilding firm; while ,those who promoted . land equipment business �were compelled to submit to unduly cold treatment. , However, shipbuilding firms laid the foundations for land equipment business in those years through efforts by the promoters of land equipment business and through ~ business me~gers. This enabled the expansion of land equip- ment business, which, in wm, reduced the ratio of ship- building to toWl sales, as stated in the following scction. Changes in the Earning Ratio Figures to be given below are comparisons in the salcs ratios of shipbuilding and land equipment ~usiness of Japan's seven top shipbuilders between two half-year terms - the first half of the March 1982 term (April 1, 1981^~ September 30, 1981: the fate term) and the first half of the March 1975 term (the early term). The seven are Hitachi Shipbuilding & Engineering (HiWchi Zosen), Ishikawaj~ma- 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500050048-9 rv~a vr r~~.~ni, v.,c v~ra, i Harima Neavy Industries (IHIj, Kawasaki Heavy lndustries, Mitwbishi Heavy Indusuies, Mitwi Engineering & Ship� building, Nippon Kokan and Sumitomo Heavy Industries (alphabetical order). In Mitsubishi Heavy IndusVies, shipbuilding accounted for 1496 and 13nd equipment 8696 in the late term, as com� pared with 38% and 6296 in the early term. In_ RHI, the,similar ratio was 30:70 for the late term, and 37:63 for ihe early term. In the late term, the ratio of shipbuilding rose to 30 due to sluggish business in land equipment, while the similar ratio for the~ previous corre- sponding term was 23, a typical ratio in recent years. In Kawasaki Heavy Indusvies, the ratio for the late ~ term was 26:74, as agiinst 24:76 for the early term. As in the case of IHI, the ratio of shipbuilding was higher than d~ose of other ~~ears because of sta~ant land equip- ment business. The ratio of the previous corresponding ~ tertr~ was 15:85. During the past 3^-4 years, the ratio of shipbuilding has been between 10'~6 and 2096, except for the first hatf of the March 1982 term. Among the seven ~rms, the ratio of land equipment business is quite high, along ' with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Sumitomo Heavy Industries. In Hitachi Zosen, the ratio for the late term was 31:69, as against 60:40 for the early teRn. The ratio of shipbuild� , ing and land equipment was completely reversed. In Miuui Engineering & Shipbuilding, the ratio for the ' late term was 39:61~, as against 54:46 for the early .term. ~ In the cases of Hitachi Zosen and Mitsui Engineering & ~ Shipbuilding, the ratio of shipbuilding had been higher. than ' ~ that bf land equipment until the March 1978 term w�hen the ratio was reversed. Their corporate images as leading shipbuilders arc ~ gradually'changing, as the figures show. . . ~ In Sumitomo Heavy Industries, the ratio for the latc ' term was 20:80 (and 15:85 for the mid-1981 terml, a. ' ~ against 36:64 for the early term. The reason why the ratio of shipbuilding was low at this point is that the companv merged with Sumitomo Machine Indusvy and Uraga Heati�~ Indusuies in 1969. Nippon Kokan is a steelmaker, rather than a shipbuilder. In fact, the sales ratio of shipbuilding business in thc letc term was only 6%. It was such a small percentage that w�e do not sWte comparative ratios. ~ , From the .above�mentioned comparative ratios. of ship� building and land equipment business of the seven major shipbuilders, we can point out the following. , Firstly, Mitsubishi~ IHI and Kawasaki have maintained the shipbuilding ratios of about 2036 during the past three or four years~ although this may not be true for the first half of the March 1982 term, because of sluggish land ~ 10 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 ~ )NLY equipment business in th~t half-year period. The con- tinuance of the non-shipbuilding ratio of about 8096 means that the policy of "breaking with shipbuilding" is nearing its end. ' Secondly, as mentioned earlier, Hitachi and Mitwi had had larger ratios for shipbuilding than land equipment until fiscal 1976. The ratios were reversed in the following year and thereafter. Their shipbuilding ratios dropped to 3096 in the mid-1981 term. The ratio of shipbuilding and land � equipment in the order backlog was 34:66 for Hitachi and 44:56 for Mitsui. The fall in the shipbuilding share is not a temporary phenomenon. Althou~gh the corporate names of Hitachi Zosen (Shipbuilding & Engineering) and Mitsui Zosen (Engineering & Shipbuilding) carry suong images of shipbuilders, they may become disserviu to their business operations before long. . Thirdly, the shipbuilding ratios of Nippon Kokan and Sumitomo Heavy Industries range from 596 to� 1996 at the . highest. Nippon Kokan's main line of business is steelmak- ing, while that of Sumitomo is precision and construction . machinery. When they try to expand their business, they will explore non-shipbuilding areas, including ocean development. They will probably be the first among the . seven to "break with shipbuilding." The business rewlts in fiscal 1981 mean a"declaration for business recovery" by the shipbuilding indusVy. They also show that shipbuilders are divided into three business patterns and that there are moves to change a big current the shipbuilding industry is following. . Toward the Final Goal , . ~ . In 1975 ihe seven major shipbuilders attempted takeoff for a"break with shipbuilding," and the attempt raised the share of land equipment business, though slightly. But none . ~ of them believe that they have completed their structural chan~e toward "breaking with shipbuilding." The conunts ~ ~ of their technological development, medium- and long-term , ' programs and equipment investment indicate that the ~ shipbuilders are giving priority to the expansion of non- shipbuilding business. Stated below are their business prospects, aiming at increasing non-shipbuilding business. ~ Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is not only the leader of the Japanese shipbuilders but also a big business of ti,. ~^~in- try, and its product lines are quite diverse. To be noted here . ~ is that many of these products have top shares in the domestic market. This means that Mitsubishi is the price leader of these products, which shows iu very suength. The firm's sales ~ for the annual term ending March 31, 1982~ ~ ue estimated at ~1,600,000 million - the biggest among shipbuilders .(except for Nippon Kokan, whose shipbuilding ~ share ls very small). . 11 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 rvn ~irr~~ ~A~ u:~~. ~~ivi,r Its product lines cover land~ marine and aeronautic equ~pment, and it ranks hi~h in the production scale of all these products. Its sales wiil probably reach ~F2,000,000 million in a few years. Mitwbishi is now placing emphasis on coal liquefaction technology, atomic energy and other energy related business, defense-related business and the production of indusvial robots. The ~rm with a three dia- mond trade ma~k will retain its high position in japanese industry in the fuWre. ~ Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Indusvie~, estimates its sales for the March 1982 term at ~700~U00 million, and aims to become a~1~000~000 million business in 1983 or 1984. If the aim is achieved~ IHI will be the second ~1,000,000 million business in the shipbuilding indusvy~ following Mitwbishi Heavy Indusvies (excluding Nippon Kokan~. The medium-range program is supported by land, maritime and aeronautic equipment business. IHI is giving priority to the manufacture of engines for F-15, the nation's next mainstay fghur plane, ocean development and energy. The firm is stepping up affiliations in tech- nology with Toshiba Corp. to prepare for the era of "mechatronics." The tie-up with the leading elecvic equipment maker will have great potentials for business growth. It is noteworthy thatlHl is participating in three of the 12 projects for research and development, which are being ~ conducted under the "re'search and development system for basic technology for next generation indusvy," design- ~ ed for indusuies to develop high technology with govern- ment support for use in the 1990s. The three projects con- cern (a) fine ceramics, (b) high-performance controllable ~ crystal alloy and (c) compound materials. Since all the 12 projects are aimed at unexplored areas of technology, the participation in such projects may bring great wccess to the firm. ~ Kawasaki Heavy: Industries estimates its sales for the March 1982 term at ~750,000 million. I t hopes to increase the sales to ~1~000,000 million in 1990. The firm has two suong areas of business - defense-related equipment and indusvial robots. In the defense field, the ~rm is the chief contractor for ihe manufacwre of the Defense Agency's next generation medium�class trainer planes. The contract will total about ~300,000 million. It is also the biggest wpplier of wbmarines to ihe Maritime Self Defense Force. A rise in the nation's defense spending will benefit Kawa- saki. The firm is the nation's top wpplier of industrial robots. The domestic market of wch robou is still small, with 1980 sales being ~78,400 million. The firm estimates its sales of robots in 1982 at ~7~000 million, and plans to raise the sales to ~20,000 million in 1984. The firm's robot sales have risen at an annual rate of about 40% during the past ~ 12 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 (ivc years. The Japan Industri~l Robot M~nufacturcrs ~ A.sociation estimatos th~t thc natinn's robot s~lc~ will reach ~290,000 million in 1985 and ~600,000 million in 1990. The marlcet is not very big. However~ 70�~ of the indusvial robots manufacwred in the world are now being operated in Japan. The MinisW of Inurnational Trade and Industry (MITI) this year began giving help xo develop intelligent robots. The indusuial robot is a promising prod- uct in view of these facu. Indusvial robots now in use are "First Generation Robots," which are good for repeating jobs to achieve mass production, such as welding, painting and transporting. The intelligent robot ihat MITI wants to develop is .~econd generation robot which would have the fol lowing functions: 1) Sensing function (perception); 2) Openting function (action); and 3) Deciding function (thought). MITI plans to spend ~30,000 million during the seven- year period starting this year to develop high-performance robots. The emergence of new-type robots would ineviWbly expand the robot market. In this field, Kawasaki Heavy . Industries is quite promising, and therefore it is quite an attractive manufacwror. . ~ . Hitachi Zosen sets its sales target for the March 1982 term at ~440,000 million. As earlier stated, the company's sales ratio of shipbuilding and land equipment is 31:69. The company is Vying to improve the business strucwre in an effort to reduce dependence on shipbuilding. The efforts the company is making include commercial produc- ' tion of newly developed products, development of basic ~ technologies, expansion of produetion facilities and development of energy-saving technology. Hitachi has been active in reducing dependence on ship- building as it had to do so for wrvival. In 1978 the com- pany created the Offshore Business Headquarten and made Osaka Shipya~d (in Sakai) a plant specializing in the manufacwre of ocean structures~ and Ariake Shipyard also ~ a plant to handle offshore svuctures. This move was wccessful, and in 1981 the company ranked the world's Sth largest manufacturer of submarine oil drilling rigs. To further expand busineu in ocean development and ~ launch full-scale development in the Arctic Sea~ the com- pany included ncean (icy waters) development in its ten major projects. It plans to begin work this year to build an icy water tank to be used for experiment ~t a cost of ~1,500 million. The company has set shipbuilding, land-based machinery and offshore structure as its three main business pillars. It is now trying to set the 4th and Sth pillars to achieve faster ~owth. Candidate lines for the 4th pillar are said to be general-purpose land equipment, such as heat pumps and rotary press,s. 13 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 rvR, a~~., vi~L~ Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding estimates sales for the March 1982 term at ~F350~000 million and aims ta raise the sales to ~520,000 million in 1985. As in the case of Hitachi Shipbuilding & Enginaring, the company is trying hard to reduce dependence on shipbuilding. It wants to launch full-scale business in the manufacture of chemical plants, boilers for power generation and the like, hoping to develop into a general engineering firm, The tompany is an early comer to the ocean development indusvy, along with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. It has already expanded its business in the field of the manufacwro of offshore oil drilling rigs, modules, plant barges and ocean engineering. The company, therefore, appears to be placing emphasis or ocean developmen! in reducing dependence on ship- building. The company has been active in icy waters development. Since 1975 it has been coriducting vari- ous experiments usinq an ice force mea- surinq tvwer built on Lake Saroma in Hokkaido. In the same year it conclu- ded a business tie-up arrangement with Arctec Inc. of the United Stat~:s to re- ~ ceive c]ata and expertise on offshore engineering, such as ways to recover oil in icy waters and canputation of ice force on the offshore structure. The development of ice-covered sea is. being spotlighted in the world, and Japan's major shipbuilders are seen as suppliers ot` various equipment necessary for such development. Tf~us the development of ia-covered sea is a big area of bus~ness in the future. Nippon Kokan is Japan's second largest ste ;!maker, following Nippon Steel. In Nippon Kokan, shipbuiiding is under the heavy industry division, and~ therefore, the situation is different from other shipbuilders. Sales for fiscal 1980 (Apri1,1980~March,1981) totaled ~1,423,300 million. Of this, the iron and steel division earned ~1~166,000 million, and the heavy indusvy division ~256,700 million, of which land equipment earned ~ ~155,000 million and shipbuilding ~101 ~700 million. Ship- ' building accounted for only 796 of the total sales. The problem is how Nippon Kokan will diversify its lines of business to r~educe the high ratio of steel business. In other words, it is trying to "break with steel business," rather than to "br+eak with shipbuilding." It is just impos- sible for the heavy indusvy division to grow into the size of the steel division. The question is how much the firm can reduce the gap between the two divisions. The firm is now trying to expand business of the heavy indusvy division, such as energy-related business, steel plant facilities~ pollution sonvol facilities and floating platforms. It is Japan'sonly builder of iu b~akers, namely 14 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 "Fuji" and "Shirase." It is also bullding in its Tsu Rescarch institu.te an icy watcr tank, meaSUring 21.3 m long, 6.0 m ~ wide and 2.0 m deep, which is equipped with a refrigerating unit capable of cooling the tank to -25�C~ the freezing point of sea water. The ~1,000 million tank is to be com- pleted ahead of a similar facility under consvuction by Hitachi. Therefore, it will be the first unk of its kind in Japan. The development of offshore tahnology in the ice- covered sea is a major pillar for business diversification to correct over-dependence on steol business. Sumitomo Heavy Indusuies is also in a situatian differ- ent from other firms. Sales for the March 1980 term totaled *225,000 million and those for the March 1981 term total� ed ~'263,600 million. Sales for the March 1982 term are estimated at ~280,000 million. The sales ratio of shipbuild- , ing during the period ranges from 15% to 1996. The policy of "breaking with shipbuilding" is advancing fairly well as in the cases of Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The ratio appears to be in an ideal range. However, the firm plans to cut the ratio of shipbuilding further because of special conditions the company's ship- a~ have. The firm's shipbuilding facilities include a I G,800~gross�ton building berth at Uraga Shipyard for war . sh ips and a 210,OOO~gross-ton dock at Oppama Shipyard for . mer:hant ships. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain high operation ~aus for shipbuilding facilities. Under the circumstances, Sumitomo is suiving to expand business in the manufacture of steelmaking facilities~ precision ~ plastic molding machines, offshore structurcs and other non-shipbuilding facilities. The Futurc The business sVategies of the seven major shipbuilders to "break with shipbuilding" can be boiled down to the following three points: 1) To expand the market sharo of favorite or promising lines in the existing land equipment sector. 2) To enter .the roboti, defense and ocean development indusvies and develoF new markets. 3) To purwe offensive but flexible policies to readily meet changes in the business environment and smoothly carry out the medium-range program. All the seven major shipbuilders have taken record new orders, while having record-high backlogs of orders. Thtir financial situation has recovered. In fiscal 1981 all but Kawasaki paid interim dividends for the first timo in four years. At the time of such business ~ecovery, investments in research and development as well as in plant and equi~ ment are concenvated on non-shipbuilding ~elds. A larger amount of investment will be made in 1982 than in 1975 ; when the industry was dominated by the sense of crisis 15 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500050048-9 ruK urr~~iw~ ua~ urv~Y creaud by a recession following the first oil crisis. The moves to "break with shipbuilding," in no way, mean that the shipbuilders are withdrawing trom shipbuild- ing business and reluctant to take new shipbuilding orders. All their efforts are designed to regain a proper supply and demand situation for the world's shipbuilding industry. The japanese shipbuilding indusW has come to a tum- , ing point with all the seven major shipbuilders Wking large- _ scale measures to ~"break with shipbuilding." fiowever~ nothing guarantees that their future will be rosy. When many Japanese shipbuilders branched out into the fields of big machinery, plant facilities, bridges and other steel-frame structures from the 1950s to the 1960s, they met strong resistance from specialized makers. And, only a few attained satisfactory financial rewlts, when they entered the new fields. If the specific land equipment market a shipbuilder enters is small~ the entry will cause serious market con- fusion and fierce price �competition that may make it dif~cult to make both ends meet. Therefore, the "break- ~ with-shipbuilding" operation by big shipbuilders does not warrant optimism. But they still will have to challenge new ventures, because new shipbuilding orders are limited in volume. If the major shipbuilders call the expansion of non- shipbuilding business at the time of the unprecedentedly serious recession in 1978 an "exodus for survival," they may call the cuRent operation an "operation to build a bridge to the 21st cenwry." ~ After having read this article~ many readers overseas may have a question why the major Japanese shipbuilders would move toward the same direction. In the writer's view, the march in the identical direction has been the source of energy for the fast development of Japanese indust~y. Irortically, such an industrial behavior means that , japanese people or enterprises lack identities. At the present stage, it is difficult to draw a conclusion on which of the two - a dash in the same direction by many businesses or the establishment of identity - is important. But the latter will probably become more ~ important in the second half of the 1990s. Experiments in ~ce-Covered Sea [Boxed Item~ To meet the engineering challenge in icy waters, Japanese shipbuilders are eaqaqed in varioua research and development activities. Zhe follawing is the excerpt from the report on the "Offshore Development in the Ice-Covered Seas" published by Mitsui Shipbuilding & Engineering: ~ Mitsui has been carrying out the R& D programs in~ this field with cooperation of Japan National Oil Corp. and Arctec, Inc. of the United States. The 16 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500050048-9 experiments were started in 1975 in the Okhotsk Sea off the coast of Mambetsu in Hokkaido, the northernmost island of Japan. For measurement and analysis of ice loac]s, a cylindrical tower, 9.5 meters in height with a 2.5-meter diameter, later converted to conical shape of 11.4 meters in height and with a diameter of 5.5 meters at the water line, was erected some 600 meters off the coast. With a view to finding the optiaium types of structures to be used in ice- covered seas, various tests have been conducted to study the effects on ice loac]s with regard to: 1) diameter of colw~ms and ice ~hickness; 2) co~e angle and friction between structure and ice; 3) number of columns, ice orientation and janQaing; and 4) the first-year pressure ridges, both non-consolidated and semm~COnsolidated. The company's efforts are also made in the tneans of transport in ice-covered seas which include: 1) high pawered icebreaking ship; 2) iceb reakinq supply boat; _ 3) icebreakinq barqe with special self-driving devices; and 4) hovercraft and other types of amphibious vehiclea. ~ Overall research and dev~elopment work relating to icebreaking ships is being carried out, including hull form design for minimwa ice resistance and maximum maneuverability, ice-resistance propeller design and hull structure design, taking ice collision force into account. In additio~ to.resistance tests, self-propelled turning tests and resistance tests in rigid ice condition, respectively, theoretical work is also beinq carried out. ~ ~ COPYRIGHT: Diamond Lead Co. , Ltd. 1982 CSO: 4120/218 17 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 t'Vh VI'l'l~rlflLl '~.u~. V!\L~l ECONOMI~ ALUMINUM-REFINING FACILITIES TO BE DISCARDED Tokyo NIHON K~IZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 4 Mar 82 pp 1, 7 [Text] - - - - _ _ _ - - A plan for disposin~ of facilities by the aluminum-refining industry circles, which are aiming at freeing themselves f~om the serious structural depression, has been firmed up. On the 5th, MITI will show the Industrial Structure Deliberation Council Aluminum Sub-Committee (Chairman: Tokyo University Professor Tadao UCHIDA) a basic plan for the stabilization of th'e - aluminum-reFining industry (facilities disposal plan based on the Specific Depressed Industries Stabilization Temporary Measures L,3w), in respose to the report by the Deliberation Council. According to what was revealed by a sour~ce concerned on the 3rd, this plan is to the effect that among the ~ facilities with an annual aluminum ingot output of 1,136,000 tons, which facilities are possessed by six aluminum-refining companies, those for an annual output of 424,000 tons, accounting for 37.3 percent, will be discarded (;~.artly frozen) during two years fiscal 1982 and 1983. Among the six com~~anies,~two are to maintain their present facilities as they are. During thethree years from fiscal, 1982 to 1984, the aluminum-refining industry circles can import aluminum ingot without paying any duty (9$ at present), with an amount equal to the total amount of the facilities to be discarded or frozen as the limit. However, it is thought that the way for the re-vitalization of the industry circles will be sti17. thorny. The aluminum-refining facilities disposal plan, which MITI has been checking into, is based on the report by the Industrial Structure Deliberation Council Aluminum Sub-Committee in October last year, and the result matches the "structure for an annual output of 700,000 tons by domestic facilities" called for by the report. According to the source concerned, the largest amount of facilities is to be disposed of by Mitsubishi Light Metal Industry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Yoshio SUZUKI; capital: ~�10 billion). It will dispose of facilities with an annual output of 160,000 tons at its Naoetsu Plant. Sho~aa Light Metal (Nead Office in Tokyo; President: Takehiko HAYASHI; caE~ital: '~17 billion) also will reduce its facilities to less than half the present amount. Two companies --�Mitsui Aluminum Industry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Isao KAWAGUCHI; capital: ~�13,500 million) and Sumitomo 18 ' FOR OFF'tCIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500050048-9 Light Aluminum Induetry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Satoshi Beppu; capita2: ~[18 billion)--will not dispoae of their facilities, as initially scheduled. ~our Companies To Discard or Freeze Aluminum-Refining Facilities - (Commentary) ?iew facilities structures of six aluminum-refining companies have been firmed up. However, four of them are to discard or freeze their facilities. Mitsui Aluminum Industry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Isao KAWAGUCHI; ~13,500 million) and Sumitomo Light Aluminum Industry (Head Office in Tokyo; President: Satoshi BEPPU; capital: ~F18 billion) will retain their present facilities completely. Mitsui Aluminum is to retain its present facilities because it is r�e~;arded as ;:af~able of maintaining its international competitive pow~r,for the reason that it obtains electric power for refining at its Miike Plant (in Fukuoka Prefecture) by thermal-power generation wi~l~ powder~ed co~l. Also, Sumitomo Li~ht Aluminum is aiming at surviving through an energy conversion under its plan for a change from oil-burning to coal-bourning at the thermal-pc~wer plant operated jointly with Tohoku Electric Power for its Sakata Plant (in Yama~ata Prefecture). - - . _ _ _ _ - - As to the disposal of facilities this time~ it has been decided that all facilities will be discarded at two plants the Naoets~ Plarrt (in Niigata Prefecture) of Mitsubishi Light Metal Industry and Omachi Plant (.~.n Nagano Prefecture) of Showa Light Metal. However, the moves o~ Sumitomo Aluminum Refining, which is the biggest company of this kind, are also to be notPd. It has three plants the Isoura Plant (in Ehime Prefecture~~ Toyo Plant (in Ehime Prefecture), and Toyama Plant (in Toyama Prefecture~~ Among them, the I~oura Plant is suspending operations completely because of the reduced production of ingot, and therefore, the possibility is great that the facilities here will be.completely discarded or frozen. However, the ' company is racking its brains also on the handling of the Toyoma Plant where the cost is the highest. This company says that "We want to decide which plant is to be retained,,according to the contents of the stabilization basic plan." Therefore, it is fluid at present. � The facilities disposal plan this time will serve as data for th~e apportienment of aluminum ingot imports free of duty. MITI intends to decide on frameworks for duty-free imports for the various companies in the light of the following three points; (l~ The amount of facilities to be dis~~osed of; (2) the amount of ingot imports; and (3~ the amount of remaining facilities. It seems that the for duty~free imparts in the industry c.ircles as a whole will be 393,000 tons in Piscal 1982, and 42?a,000 tons in fiscal 1983 and 1984. The equivalent of the tariffs amounting to a].ittle more than ~`10 billion annually will cnntribute to the improvement of the ~rofits among the six refining companies. However, many of the six aluminum-refining companies are in a state close to excess liabilities; and, moreover, it is difficult to hope for a rapid rise in the price of al.uminum, because of the depression in the US. Therefore, it is expected that it will become difficult to maintain the facilities for 712,OD0 tons, which are to be retained this time through the industry circles. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982 CSO: 4105/81 19 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500050048-9 ECONOMIC CARDBOARD INDUSTRY FORMS DEPRESSION CARTEL Tokyo NIIQtEI SANGYO SHIl~UN in Japanese 19 Mar 82 p 13 [Interview with Shinichi Kaizaki, chairman of the Japan Corrugated Cardboard Industry Association Depression Cartel Preparatory Co~nittee, by Reporter Hirogami; date and place not specified] [Text] - - . _ - - Corru~ated cardboard industry circles have started to move toward forming a depression cartel. Both the Japan Corrugated Cardboard Industry Association, composed of big manufacturers concerned, and the National Federation of Corrugated Cardboard Industry Associations, centered on the medium and small manufacturers concerned, have begun to make preparations th~ough the establishment of their respective experts committees. The possibility is thus becoming stronger that in corrugated cardboard industry circles, an "all-industry cartel" set-up will be established for the first time. This paper asked Japan Corrugated Cardboard Industry Association Depression Cartel Preparatory Committee Chairman Shinichi KAIZAKI, concurrently Tomoku Yresident, about the situation in the industrial circles concerned and future prospects. (Reporter HIROGAMI acted as interviewer.) � Question: Why is it that a mood calling for the formation of a depression cartel has recently come to mount suddenly? Answer: The situation has become difficult since around the sumQner of last year. After the beginning of this year, our deficits have increased still further. The prices of raw materials for corrugated cardboard have not dropped since the sharp rise in chip prices the year before last. This has given an impetus to our suffering from difficulties. Both corrugated cardboard manufacturers and carrugated cardboard-consuming industry circles had thought that the prices of raw materials would decline, sooner or later, but the actual situation is not so. In particular, corrugated-cardboard users strengthened their rec~uest for the lowering of corrugated-cardboard prices in anticipation of a decline in the prices of raw materials. Therefore, corrugated- 20 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 cardboard manufacturers have also accepted [the request for] the lowering of the prices, because of their speculations as to their share (market ' holding) rates, and due to the excessive competition. The prices of corrug~ted-cardboard sheets have decreased by as much as about 20$, when compar~d with the level seen around the spring of last year, and those of corrusated-cardboard cases, by about 10$. The trend, in which raw material prices are hip,h, while manufactured product prices are low, has thus become clearer. Question: The absolute amount of demand has not decreased so greatly. As far as can be said from seeing the data on demand and supply, it is also felt that you said to circumstances. Answer: To be sure, the amount of demand for 1981 decreased by only~3v or so, compared with.the preceding year's level. From the beginning, however, the corrugated cardboard industry has had a low rate of payability, and moreover, the cost burden has become very heavy, accompanying the doubling of raw material prices. In addition to the thoroughgoing ~ ir,~}~!ementation of economization measures by users, business is beco;ning more _~:taFTntint. It is ex~ected, therefore, that this year, too, the amount of dcmand will probably be on the same level as in the preceding year, or dron from the precedin~ year's level. Since around the autumn of last year, some companies have been reduced to deficit management. At present, N0~ of ~~11 m,inufacturers coricerned are probably suffering from a deficit . In the case of my Company, the interim settlement of accounts for February ::hotoc~d a real deficit. In corrugated-cardboard indu:~try circles, there are about 300 companies jostling one another. If this situation continues as is, then some companies will probably go bankrupt. Question: [ahen will a cartel be formed? - _ _ . Answer: To begin with, I want to conduct surveys on 'che situation concerning the payability of~the manufacturers, affiliat.ed with the Japan Corrugated-Cardboard Industry Association, and the ~~~eration rate, thus obtaining necessary data for submitting an application, as quickly as possible. In order to obtain approval, it is necessary to have the actual situation understood fully by the Fair Trade Commission and user industry circles. At the present stage, it is difficult to say definitely [that a cartel will be formed] from around what~time. Anyway, my true intention is to carry out Cthe formation of a cartel] as quickly as possible. Question: In the case of corrugated cardboard, it is an order- receiving industry. Therefore, will a production-adjustment cartel, intended for inventory adjustment, achieve satisfactory effects? Answer: In the case of big manufacturers, I would like to restrict the number of days of operation and the length of time for carrying out 21 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 operations through the formation of a depression cartel on the baQ~s of the Anti-Monopoly Law, and in the case of inedium and small ent~�rprises, un!i~~r the co-ordination clause based on the Medium and Small Lnterprises Or;aniza:ion Law. This is an order-receiving industry; thecefore, it is not felt that excess stockpiles are putting pressure on man~~ement. Recently, however, there are also many enterprises ~rt,ich are carrying out production in anticipation of an increase in demand. Companies concerned will go bankrupt together ur.less they take action for a cartel. There are no differences at all in the degree of severity, between big enterprises and medium and small enterprises. I am fully aware that there are difficulties different from those in the case or the inventory-adjustment cartel formed as to machine-made paper. I also intend to explain the special nature of corrugated-boardcard industry circles to the Fair Trade Commission, taking time. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982 ~ CSO: 4105/81 22 FOR OFFIICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 SCIENCE AND TECHNOIAGY ACCURATE INSTRUMENTATION FOR SAFE FLANT OPERATION ~ Tokyo TECI~IOCRAT in English Vol 15 , No 1, Jan 82 pp 11-19 ~ (Article by Shinsaku Kinugasa, Sales Engineering Division Hokushin-Electric Works, Ltd.] (Text ] 1. Introduction An important responsibllity placed on modcr,n technology is that of preventing serious industrial accidents ~riginating in plants. Particularly in Japan, a country of high population density, where such accidents could result in a major catastro- phe, a variety of ineasures are being devised as a pressing national need. This paper describes the means of assuring plant safety, laying particular emphasis on the use of appropriate instru- mentation among the measures being taken for accident prevention. Proper instrumentation is regarded as an effective means not only of assuring the safety of plants but also of maintaining quality and production. This is achieved by allotting instrumeatation the task of monitoring and controlling normal plant operation and detecting and/or taking effective - countermeasures in the event of abnc;mal conditions occurring. In detail, instrumentation for safety must include methods for intensified types of interlo;:ks and emergency shutdowns (widely used in convention~~! instrumentation), exceptional control functia~ to cope ~�rith low-probability emergencies, increasing the reliability of ineasurement and control instru- ments, introducing online diag,~ostic techniques for industrial equipment, and adopting rational man-machine systems suitable . for safe operation. Also required, to secure the above system functions are effective training for operators and management for maintenance of the instruments. These problems are too extensive to deal witli briefly. This paper therefore, covers only the problem of how to provide safety instrumentation systems; emphasis being laid on techniques for detecting abnormal conditions. ' l.stent ttets Muliiplicativ~ ~tet~ Run away ~tete Tim~ X t Cstertroph� No ch~np~ in ChanpN fn ttat~ vsri~bl~t/ Shutdoun ttat~ ver(ablK eontr.oll~Dl~ by ~hutdoun In~ff~ctiv~ Fig. 1. Abnormal State in Time Process ~ 23 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 rvn vrr�.~r~a. ...y... v,~..~ 2. Normal and Abnormal Operation in Plants Machines and apparatus within an industrial environment are regarded as operating normally when they are running as originally planned. Abnormal operation results in a decrease in production, a drop in product quality, and on occasions accidents. To secure safety, it is necessary to detect abnormali- ties as early as possible, and promptly take appropriate counter- measures. There aze many levels of abnormalityl ) One level may denote slight abnormality, not affecting overall plant operation. Another may denote a state for which, when detected, it is too late to do anything. Fig. l outlines abnormality gradings. In se.rvice, plants generally deteriorate as the materials of which they are made are gradually affected over time by abrasion, fatigue and corrosion. In many cases this gradual deterioration may not be readily apparent, but be a latent source of accelerated degeneration in the future. If deterioration progresses so far as to cause abnormality of state variables, this abnormality can form excessive stress and thereby acce- lerate deterioration. A self�propagating state occurs, multiplying the rate of deterioration and rapidly aggravating the situation, ultimately resulting in a major failure. The process of hidden (dormant) deterioradon generally takes a fairly long, time. Some gFades of trouble directly lead to the self-propagating state without passing through a dormant stage. Since an accidental failure or an excessive disturbance can lead to this self-propagating "chain reaction," detection of trouble in the early stages, followed by prompt action, is very important in securing the safety of the plant. 3. Disaster Generating Process - Self-Propagation of Abnormality3),a). There are vazious generating patterns for disasters in plants. In some cases, pressure or temperature in a container can rise excessively, resulting in a fracture or explosion. In others, despite temperature and pressure complying with design standards, inner material defects car~ cause a sudden fracture. In general, the common denominator in these piant disasters is that, in the final stage, abnormality is dramatically increased by the multiplicative effect of several factors leadi~ig to a disaster. Disasters occur by chance; failure of components including ~uxiliary apparatus, energy supplies, and measuring and cuntrol ~ instruments, Sisturbances sucl~ as misoperatiun, power failure, sudden changes in the quality or quantity of charged materials and changes of load, acts of God such as earthquakes or lighten- ing, or fire spreading from a neighboring location. Develop- ments in the ~nal stages may be so rapid tliat disasters are effective(y instantaneous. 24 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 Let ~us take a presaure vesael for example. If one of the bolts which secures the end plate to tlie cylindrical vessel breaks, an increased tension is applied to tlie other bolts. Tliis aauses theaa bolts to sucoessively break, bursting the end plate M~nlpuutlrq ~ Fwdb~ok ~ v~ri~bl~ u/ xr Pl~nt pl =i � x ~ / p= s~ � / ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ � u, x� P,~ s n, St~t~ v~rl~bN SrNkdown Brpkdown (ftr~) prob~bliity ~ o~a.i.: (rl funa~on output ' Fig. 2. Disaster Genereting Procesa ~D . T~mp~?~tur~ ~IV ~ , C/ . i ' . B \ ~III ~ A 1 ~.~~?11 1 ? ~ ' S~t v~lu~ � O " , I ~ ~III . ` \ � . ` Tim~ Fig. 3. Different Measures Against Abnormal State With Time Eig.2 shows the "chain�reaction" process. Failure modes (such as leakage, cracks, and trip of rotation or operation) uccurring in a plant or its components, auch as auxiliary . apparatus and measuring and control instruments~ can all be ~ .represented by symbols as follows. The probability of break- down j occurring in time dt is Pjdt. Tlie failure probability function Pj is a complicated nonlinear function of state . variable x of tlie particular plant. Thus, 25 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPR~VED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 Pj=Pj/xt ~x2 . . . . xn~t/ If failure z occurs, state variable x of the plant changes, causing Pj to change through a feedback reaction. In other words, variations in the state variable caused by failure can result in excessive stress, successively inducing other break- downs and rapidly leading to a serious situation. The state in the period in which x can be returne~! to 0(the standard value) by manipulating variable u, i.e., tf~e cuntrollable time duratiun, is called off control. This state includes the following two cases: one that permits automatic return to the normal state, and the other tliat, if left as it is, leads to an emergency state. The operator changes the set point of speci~c control loops at his own discretion or tries to accomplish a return to normal through manual operation. An emergency state is when state variable can be returt~ed to the safe area by manipulating variable u. If this is impossible, a disaster occurs. If the change of x due to z and u can be expressed (as it can for most cases) in the form xj=xj(U/ exp aj/z~.z2. zm,c~i,u2. url t (2) the situation is regarded as an emergency when aj/ . u~/ 6 u ~ 4 7 ~ ~ y OI C o E y ~ ~ qC ~'o -a� M ~ c ~ � . > L ~ e ~0 {c~ gC ~ ~0 � C ~j ~ 4C � O q O O .r-N q � ~ ~ p~ j{ Q q O 0 d > O W O> Y W m U~ W ~ . ~ ~i o M O r. p a~ Q ~ a ~ g . " ~j C~ ~g O P~ O V C 0 .S q ~ ~ ~N ] . 9 ~ Z o E ~ i ~ ~ . > 0 3 ~ ~ E c ~ c~ R~' . (q ~ H ~ N ~ LL m Z D LL 2 Z J G Z ~ - . O j! H ` p n ffi O C C C N m m ~0 a c o 'r4 'u m E o ~ ~ a e ~C ; 0 ~ ~ 4 Lt ~ . ~ a a ~I 7 C G ~ N ~ ~ g ~ ~$k~i$~~,;~~ ~ g~ �t . ~ � " i : s $ ~ � ~ ~ E~ ~ ~ n a d ~'a c 5 E'Y A A�~ �!9 a~ v v o ~ n ~ ~ d J c~ O 2 4 O i O O O O I N Q Q Q Cg c~ 5~ FOR OF~'ICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 Note that although the programming language level.has been greatly heightened, the computer architecture level remains unchanged. This situation increaaes the burden on software - to a more and more undesirable extent. (See Fig. 3.) 1-3 Causes and Results of Semantic Gaps ~ This section analyzes the causes of the semantic gaps dis- cussed in the preceding section and discusses the adverse effects of the gaps. This task is accomplished on the basic requirements for a user-assumed abstract machine and a desirable computer architecture while comparing the von Neumann type archi- tecture with the idea of the recently advanced programming languages. t.3.1 Processing Principles (a) Deterministic Logic vs Nondeterministic Logic Von Neumann type computer$ premise a deterministic logic. However, an advanced information processing procedure reflect- ing a man's thinking process or creative activity cannot generally be _�xpressed by a sterotyped algorithm but by a non-determi- nis:ic logic~2~. Weapons indispensable for advanced data pro- cessing are a nondeterministic logic and a heuristic logic. If iluse are absent, an overhead of reflecting the nondeterministic I~~~ic upon a deterministic logic is produced thus causing a semantic gap. Besides, procedures such as those in pattern recognition require processing involved in ambiguity~21> Frum now the importance of a tec}inique for processing am- biguity will increase. ' (b) Control Flow vs Data Flow. ln a von Neumann type computer, data is processed accord- ing to a control flow which is subordinate to the control flow of instructions. However, the recent trend toward parallel processing and functional languages has proved the superiority of dats flow for describing and controling parallel processing~3~. The proof is a conclusion that since parallelism and asynchron- ization are solely determined by data dependency, casting spotlights upon data dependency is more advantageous. ln a current computer, the burden of detecting a parallel processing possibility from instructions (executed according to a control flow) through their data dependency and of guaranteeing its asynchronization are left to the system software and user. The . execution environment of the computer is based upon the control flow. This situation is a typical semantic gap. ~ (c) Sequential Proceaaing vs Parallel Processing: A processing principle of von Neumann type computers is sequential processing. Jobs generally contain routines which can be processed in parallel. However, since today's computers and languages are based on the von Neumann model, these jobs cannot be expressed as they are but their straight forward ex- pressions must be converted to sequential alogorithms. It is . desirable to naturally reflect the procassing characteristics of , S1 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 jobs upon the execution environment. From this point of view, the principle of parallel processing is superior becauu it im� poses fewer restrictions. t �3�2 Numerical Processing Computers were originally developed for scientific compu- tation. However, ti~eir numerica! processing features contain fundamental problems. (a) Fixed Precision vs Variable Precision: Present computers provide only the fixed precision feature ~ because of hardware restrictions. TherefQre, when a user- requires a certain precision (for example, 50-digit precision is required for computation related with nuclear power), he must . program a prec:sion feature of his own. At this time, he must or' course confiont the problem of hardware dependency. As can be seen, even this kind of fundamental requirment is not satisfied by present computers. The harmful effects of fixed precison are subtract errors, truncation errors, and rounding errors. The variable precision feature is indispensalile for avoid- in~~ these.~s~~6> (b) Error Free Computation:~6~ Present computers are based upon ~xed length words as described before. This also results in subtract, truncation and rounding errors being intrinsic to the computers: The.con- sequences of these errors are that numeric data specified by users cannot be expressed correctly in the computers and that an effective precision cannot be obtained. Therefore, for ex- ample, a user trying to solve quadratic or matrix equations muat first study the theoiy of error, accomplish er:or analysis, and carefully program the results of these efforts to obtain correct answers. This means that a series of steps not central to the problem at hand is required, that the execution efficiency decreases, and that the programming overhead increases. The situation remains the same when a high-level language is u~ed. To get rid of fnis semantic gap, a computer feature assuring any number of effective digits (precision) is indispensable. The feature also contributes greatly to the improvement of fraction computation. Even in the numerical processing fietd where von Neumann type computers are in their element, a semantic gap due to the low-level computer architecture still exists as seen above. 1-3-3 Data Environment This section discusses the mechanisms related with data types the importance of which is increasingly recognized in the pro- gramming language world.~l~ ~4) (S) (7) (8) (9) (a) Data Dependency vs Data Independency: The concept of data independency pertaina to data base pro- cessing. Data independency means that application programs accessing a data base need not be modified even if attributes - and structures of the data base are modifled (for example, if integer type data is changed to floating point type data). Unless this characteristic is provided, a great overhead in modifying programs must result. The minimum assurance for avoiding t~is requires the programs to exclude instructions accessing data structures or affected by~data attributes. In a computer . . 52 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 architecture providing this assurance, tags and descriptors should hopefully be used; resulting in there being no more information concerning data defmitions than the tags carried by the data itself. The architecture guarantees complete data independency by this means, greatly contributing to program development, maintenance, and reliability. The above concept is one of the basic programming language concepts of today. (b) Non-Self Data Type Defmition vs Self Data Type De- finition: A result of recent programming language development clearly ,indicates that data types are the starting point of programming. However, there is no distinction between data and instructions nor assurance of data types in present computer systems. For this reason, software reliability cannot be guaranteed during execution, data environment errors cannot be checked, and debugging functions are meager thus resulting in She creation of a large type II semantic gap. The above problem can be solved if each data cell contains information indicating its type (attributes and structure). This self-definition capability is also a factor indispensable for the assurance of data independency described in the previous section. Furthermore, it may help the solution of the problem described in section 2-3-2 since it facilitates the expression of variable length words. The importance of the capability ha~ long been recognized but is now reviewed from a new angle urged by apprehensions resulting from present software prob- lems and proposals for remedial action made by recent pro- gramming languages. The most basic principle in a future computer architecture will be this data type self-definition capability. Also, the data environment must be strongly sup- ported to fill the gap between the present computer azchitecture and the compuation model of a programming language. 1-3-4 Addressing and Non-Numerical Processing ~ (a) Linear Addressing vs Structural Addressing: A von Neumann type computer provides linearly addressable storage space so that data with complicated structures and ~ variable length data must be copied by instructions to the linear space for access by instructions. It is a fatal semantic gap that the storage system cannot copy the data structures by itself, since the work load is placed on user or system software thus depriving programs .of productivity, causing coding errors, and hindering programming abstraction. The information hiding concept (for eliminating the need for knowing physical data object formats) described in section 2-2-2 gives a remedial measure in this regard, so does the data type self-definition capability (tags and descriptors) described in section 1-3-3. (b) Address Addressing vs Content Addressing: The most intimate and trite semantic gap is the one related to the data access method. It has long been recognized that for a data base processing data access by content (content addressing) is far superior to data access by address (address addressing). Although the basic principle of the former is relatively simple, because it encounters the difficulty of gener- alizing output formats, its realization is still awaited despite its popularity and associated lively discussion. However, the 53 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPR~VED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 . . . importance of content addressing (as well as associative pro- cessing) for solving the semantic gap will increase as future computer applications proceed to sophisticated data base prooessing. Recently, a concept extended from the concept of content addressing and called context addressing has been _ proposed. This concept aims at automatic access according to contextual meanings. This function is expected to minimize the semantic gap inherent in data base processing and is thus attracting keen attention. 1-3-5 Capability Von Neumann type computers completely lack features related to capability and protection. This fact means that they do not basically assure system reliability. For this reason, they have difficulty in sufficiently guaranteeing security, which ' is a more important consideration than protection. (a) , Non-Capability Addressing vs Capability Addressing: Capability addressing assures that only the authorized pro- cess correctly accesses user-defined data structures through authorized operations. Present computers do not have this concept but provide only simple protection features functioning ~ on main storage blocks. They entrust the main responsibility for reliability to users, who have therefore to prepare various check procedures and systems which are not essentially related ~ with the algorithms of their problems. This situation is another semantic gap caused by the low level computer architecture. (b) No Data Type Check vs Data Type Check: As repeatedly stated, von Neumann type computers com- pletely neglect functions to support a data environment. Their architecture does not prepare a means to assure the reliability of software during its execution. Hence a semantic gap arises between this architecture and the notion that provision of complete data type check functions contributes greatly to the enhancement of software system reliability, debugging effici- ency, and program productivity. These functions support the data type self-definition capability described before and check: (1) Whether a process has an access right. (2) Whether an operation and a data type are authorized. (3) Whether an attribute (e.g., a value range) defined by a data type is violated (exceeded). Unless the above functions are provided at the architecture level, they have to be provided by the programmer or system software (mainiy compilers). The responsibility, for providing the functions is an annoying overhead on each programmer or compiler and produces an extremely adverse effect upon the system's execution efficiency. These constraints are the results of the semantic gap. 2. Sematic Gapless Computer Arch~tecture Based upon the analysis in Chapter 1 of computer architec- tures, causes of semantic gaps, and their results, this chapter discusses current approaches to a computer architecture with fewer semantic gaps. ~ 54 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 2-1 Peerequisites for Semantic Gaplesa Computer Architecturc This section rounds off the prerequisites (i.e., needs and seeds) for a semantic gapless computer computer architecture and their conceptions. 2-1�1 Needs Needs for a semantic gapleu computer architecture have repeatedly been described in Chapter 1. The needs derive from the conception that in the current rush into the personal com- puting age, a computer with bare~ mere, and superficial high performance (high speed) does more hazm than good. [n today's societies filled with huge amounts of information, the most Important thing is to solve software problems (problems of reflecting men's intellectural activities upon computer systems). The solution requires good computers but not computers such as the above. It can be broadly asserted that a computer architecture pro- viding a good software environment and powerfully assuring productivity and reliability should be the , next generation computer a~chitecture. 2-1-2 Seeds A semantic gapless computer architecture can grow from two seeds. One is the hardware technology level now typically represented by VLSI technology whlch is suf~cient to realize the features described in Chapter 1. At the present level, the reserve power brought forth by the VLSI technology should , be directed not to the pursuit of higher computation speeds but to the dissolution of semantic gaps. Although a satis- factorily synthetic methodology for dissolving them has not yet been established, establishment of inethods for dissolving particular ones is fairly promising and progress has been made ~ in the theory of its featurea. The seeds of a semantic gapless computer architecture are VLSI technology and a theory supporting software engineering, programming languages, and a computer architecture synthetically. 2-t-3 Basic Concepts ~ As outlined in the previous two sections, a semantic gapless computer architecture has its prerequisites. Future computer systems will generally be used with high level languages. There- . fare~ the use of these languages (i.e., abstract data type lan- guages) in the above architecture is premised in the following discussion. Besides these, functional languages are being spot- ~ lighted but their full�scale realization will require much time because of the difficulty of their immigration to the present environment. ~?s described in section 1�2�3, sample attempts have already hecn made to fill the semantic gaps between programmers and rrogramming languages (e.g., mcdularity, data type abstraction, parallel processing description capability). The greatest ob- ic~tive from now is to attain a reliable and efficient exeaution environment by consolidating the progressive and superb con- 55~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 ~~ptions of these new languagea lnto a computer architecture. Approaches to this objective dlffer fundamentally from those toa~ard the attainment of a convendonal high-level language machine which orientates about a particular von Neumann cype high~level language and thua is a von Neumann type com- puter. Only the basic concepts consolidated as above can truly be universal and indispansable for mechanisms of future computers. . The design of a future computer architecture requires op- cimum allotment of roles to hudvvare technology and software cechnology. Present computers represented typically by von Neumann type computers pay no concern to factora necessary in the software world. The fact that these computers are now tlie mainstream would perhaps frighten anybody. 2-2 Methodology for Semant~c Gaplees Computer Architectun In the course of progress of an information-oriented society, software has long been playing the leading role of intellectual production activities. From the viewpoint .of ~the current pro- gramming methodology, the so-called "high-level" languages such as FORTRAN, COBOL, and PL/I used at present give rise ~ to the doubt: "How can they be at a high level?" because they cannot answer "Yes" to the following questions: ~ (1) Can .program expressions be logically structured? ~ (2) � Can problems be expressed using the concept of data abstraction? ~ ~ ( 3) Are users freed from describing low level procedures ~ . ~.~�hich are basically irrelevant to their problems solution'~ 1-~) Can parallel processing and its synchronization be des- ; ribed? Has due consideration been paid to automatic pro- gramming (e.g. for checking the eligibility of a program)? (6) Is it unnecessary for programmers to consider hardware characteristics (word length~ internal expression, precision)? (7) Are the programming methodology and the program de- sign compatible with the computer architecture? (8) Are the roles of the compil~er essential to the reduction of the semantic gap between the external architecture (problem expression level) and the internal architecture (execution level)? Positive answers to these questions will lead to a tide of pn~gramming languages~ that is, structured or abstract data type languages. (a) Abstract Data Type Architecture: � An approach to a computer architecture which strengthens functions to express and manipulate data structures and attri- butes is introduced below. The objective of the approach is ~ common to various other approaches to a high-level computer architecture for improving a fundamental defect of a von . ~eumann type computer. � The above functions provided by the so called "high-level" languages such as FORTRAN and ALGOL cannot help being found wanting. They bury the expreasion and manipulation in program algorithms thua providing an obatacle to structured 56 ~ FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 . ~ ~ software design. Besides, very few current computers have a standard data structure manipulation function. The least of these computers barely support the "stack structure" indispen- sable for controlling the program execution environment. Re- consideration of this situation has recently awakened recogniton of the importance of data structures. To renew the basic programming method, structured programming languages auch as PASCAL, CLU, and ALPHARD employ the concept of "program = data structure + alogrithms" meaning that defining data structures and attributes is as important to a program as defming algorithms. They provlde language specifications ~ requiring data structures and attributes to be defined before describing algorithms which manipulate the data. This is the philosophy of structured programming. An extension of this philosophy allows procedures manipulating the data structures to be defined in addition to the structures and attributes. By this feature, many errors which could conventionally be de- tected only during program execution can now be detected during program compilation. This feature is called capsulation of data structures and operatione. On the other hand, an application increasing in importance is data base processing of ~the non-procedure. This processing, which 'is one of the weakest goints of a von Neumann type . computer, executes procedures manipulating data structures. data structures. As seen above, improvement of system efficiency requires provision of: (1) Data structure expression and manipulation capability (2) Data independency (extensive separatian of data attri- butes from instruction attributes) (3) Management of variable length data by the architecture In conclusion, functions to be attained by a data structure- oriented high-leve~ computer architecture are: (1) Supporting structured storage space instead of linear stor- age space for the advanced data structure expression capability (2) Extensively separating data from instructions (3) Providing advanced data structure manipulation instruc- tions These may be attained through the use of tag and descriptor concepts. Approaches to the attainment will be fascinating since t?~ese functions supersede the basic data processing func- tions of'the operating system of a high-level language machine. 3. Epilogue The basic architecture of today's computers was established decades ago. At that time, important system techniques sup- porting the systems (e.g., multl-programming, multi-procesaing, virtual storage, TSS, network architecture, and data base) were not known. Frankly speaking, computer development staffs must have been unable to foresee how the utilization of com- puter systems would change and their applications would expand. To cope with this uncertainty, they set the computer architecture (machine instruction set) at a very low level and 57 , FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 rva~, v...~, v~~a.~ mainly pursued universality to satisfy all needs, instead of ' paying the "high price"of coping with developmental difficulties. This approach must be compulsory when things are unknown, but entails the construction of huge software upon the low-level architecture, which is the biggest cause of today's software crises. The crises mean that there is a great gap between the image of system designers about the design of a system and its actual computer architecture. They also mean that software is more and more complicated though hardware is simpiified. For example, the objects of hardware design have shifted from gates (basic transistor circuits) through register transfer modules (RTM: IC or MSI) to processor memory switches (PMS: LSI) . ~ while greatly improving the productivity, maintainability, and reliability of hardware. The present computer architecture level corresponds to the gate design level. At this level, software de- velopment must confront a great many difficulties and requires craftsman-like skills. However, to cope with the processing overhead caused by abnormally enlarged system and application software, computer manufacturers have mostly been striving for the improvement of processor and memory cycle speeds instead of striving for the improvement or even modi~cation (addition of instructions not conflicting with the architecture) = of the weakest point (low-level architecture). (For example, since its introduction the processing speed of the IBM system/ 360 and 370 has been increased 100 times under the same ~ architecture.) This approach would have been a rather natural selection under the two conditions; the rapid progress of semi- conductor technology and the difficulty of developing bulky ~ and completely new software. However, a new environment has recently been created for fundamentally reviewing the computer architecture level, as follows: (1) From various experiences of system and application soft- ~ . ware~ design and implementation, the recognition of software features which should be supported with at the architecture level has been strengthened. (2) High-performance mini-and microcomputers to be de- veloped from now will not be restricted by existing software properties, and their architectures can be established relatively freely. They will expediently employ high lsvel architectures to reduce their total system devleopment costs. As summarized above, this paper explained the present � situation of computer systems synthesized under the concept of semantic gaps and considered their solution. Retercnces: (1) Myera, G.J., "Advancp in Computer Architectura", John Wiley ~ Sona, Nea York. [ 1978] . (2) Chohen, J., "Non-Deterministic Algorlthma", Computing Surveys, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 79-94, [ 19'79] . (3) Treleaven, "Exploiting Pro~am Concucrency in Computing Syr tems", Computer. Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 42~9, (1979). (4) Wulf. W.p:, Trenda in the Design and Implementatlon of Pro~am- ming Languagea", Computer, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 14-23, [1979]. ~ FOR OFFiCIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 (S) Goto. E., ot al., "FLATS, A Machine for Numerkai~ Symbolic and Aaoclative Computln~", Proc. of the Sixth Mumd Sympodum on Computer Architecture, pp. 102-110, [ 1979] . (6) Saksmuta, K., et,l., "A New Approsch to an Adapdve Computer - M Automatic Recovery Mechani~m to Prevent the Occuaence of Subtract Ertors", Proc. of the Sixth Annual Symposium on � Computer Architecture, pp, 31-41, [1979). (7) lliffe, J.K., "Basic Machine Principles", Macdonald, London [ 1972j . (8) Shankar. K.S., "Data Structure, Type, and Abatractions", Com- puter. Vol. 13. No. 3, pp. 67-77. (1980] . (9) Giloi, W.K. and Berg. H., "STARLET-A Computer Concept Based on Ordered Sets as Ptimitive Data Typet�, Proc. of the Second Mnual Symposium on Computer Architecture, pp. 201-206, [1975]. (10) Yau. S.S. and Fung. H.S., "Asaociative Proceeeor Architecture-A Survey", Computing Surveya, Vol. 9, No. 1~ pp. 3-27, [ 1977J . (11) Hesly, I.D., L.ipov~ki, G.J., and Daly, K.L., '?ha Architecture of � Context Addreased Sepnent-Sequential Storagea"; Proc. of AF~S FJCC,Vol.4l,pp.691-701. [1972]. (12) Kamlbayaahi. N., et al., "HEART: M Operating Syatem Nucleua Machine Implementated Hy Firmware", Proc. of the Symposium on Architectural Support for High Level Languages and Operating Systems. (to appear) (1982]. (13) DiJkstra. E.W., 'The Structure of the T.H.E'-Multiprogramming , System", Comm. ACM, Vol. 11, No. S, pp. 341-345, (1%8]. (14) Hansen, P.B., "The Nucleus of a Multiprogramming Syatem", Comm. ACM, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 238-241, [1970]. (15) Lister, A.Mi. and Sayer. P.J., "Hierarchical Monitors", Softwate 8c Experlence, Vol. 7, No. S, pp. 613~23. [ 1977] . (16) Wulf, W.A., et al., "HYDRA: The Kernel of a Multiprocessor Operating System", Comm. ACM, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 337-345, [1974~. (17) Eckhouao. R., et al., "Operating System Enhancemont Through Firmwan", Proc. of MICRO 10, pp.119-133, [ 1977 J. (18) Stockenberg, J., et al., "Vertical Mi~ation for Performance En- hanccment in Isyered Hardware /Firmware/Software Syatems", Computer, Vol. ll, No. S, pp. 35-50. (1978]. (19) Liskov, B.H., 'The Design of the Venue Operating Syatem", Comm. ACM, Vo1.15. No. 3, pp. 144-156, (1972J. (20) Hoare, A.R., "Monitor, An Operating Syatem Structura Concept", � Comm. ACM, Vol. 17, No. 10, pp. 549-557, [19'14J. . (21) Ichikawa. T., et al., "ARES A Memory, Gpable of Aasociating Stored Information Throuch Relevancy Estimination", Proc, of NCC, Vol. 46, pp. 947-954, [ 1977 � mants", Proc. of COMPSA" 80. (to appear) [ 1980] . , . (22) Kamibayaahi. N., et al., "Distributed Proceaaing Orlented lnter- procesa Communication Faciiity for KOCOS", Proc. of the Third � USA� JAPAN Computer Conference, pp. 80-85, (1978] . (23) Kamibayashi~ N., et al., "High Level CompUter Architectura Ap- proaches to Reduce Semantic Gaps; ' Proc. of the COMSAC'80, (toaPPear) (1989J. (24) Kamibayashl, N., et al., "SPIRIT: A New Relationel Database Computer Employing Functionel-Diatributed Multi-Microproces- aor Configuration", Proc. of the lat International Conference on Distributed Computing Syatems, pp. 759-771, [ 1979J . COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketinq Research Co. , Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 �5 9 , FOR OFFICIAL US~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 SCIEN(~ AND TECf~JOLOGY FIFTH GENERATION COMPUTER PROJEGT Tokyo TEC~IOCRAT in English Vol 15, No l, Jan 82 pp 29-47 . [Te xt ] l . lntroduction Full-scale research and development for tl~e fiftl~ generation computer, wliich will be mucli more humanlike in its capabili- ties tlian today's state of the art computers, will begin from April of this year. ~ ~ The project team has set the early 1990's as tl~e target date for completion of a prototype fiftl~ generation computer. In the process of R&D, interim results of tl~is project will ' be incorporated in such areas as OA (office automation), CAD/CAM (computer aided design and computer aided manu- faaturing) and software development. Tl~e project is to be carried out under tlie leadership of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, ~ through joint ~ study by universities, ~ ' research institutes and companies, as well as foreign researchers and governmental organizations. ~ This project is so ambitious that tliere can be no gu~rantee of its success at this time. Only the entliusiastic endeavor _ of persons contributing to tlie project can overcome tlie difficulties whicli will confront their research efforts. 2. What Can the Fifth Generation Computer po? It is expected that the fifth generation computer will be able to think, make judgments and sense its environment mucll as humans do. It is a totally new concept in computer I~istory. We can briefly outline its functions as follows: 1) (t will be able to see and judge dimension and shape of objects and discriminato eolor, lt will also Ue able ta aecept spoken requests and give its results in natural language. . 2) It will liave tlie ability to propose a}~propriate metliods of solving specialized problems. For example, if supplied witl~ the medical l~istory of a patient, it could consult its reservoir of inedical information and advise a physician on the precautions and possible treatment of tlie case in question. 3) When a user states his final objective and outlines a 60 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 wurking process, the computer will be able to program itself to achieve that objective. 4) Tlie computer will describe the appropriate working process according to the specific requirements of a given job. ~ 5) It will be able to detect and remedy problems witliin itself. . Professor Tohru Motooka, chairman of the Preparatory Study Committee for the Fifth Generation Computer, summa� riaed in `"The Proceeding of International Conference of Fifth Generation Computer Systems"� the goals of the computer project as follows: 1) To increase the levels of computer intelligence as well as their affinity for cooperation with man. The five human senses can fulfill their functions only when backed up by the knowledge necessary to understand the information obtained through them. In order to raise the levelsof computer intelligence and increase their affinity for cooperation with man, it is absolutely essential to provide these computers with knowledge related to their respective fields of application and the means for putting the'se to practical use. It will also be necessary to develop a computer equipped with associative inference, and learning functions to process that knowledge more effectively. Such requirements can be met by improving man-machine interface, and further researching understanding patterns such as speech, voice, grapliics, images and objects, tl~e comprehen- sion of daily language, and knowledge bases. 2) To process the ability to act on belialf of human beings as well as tlie ability to assist man in tlie dcvelopment of unknown fields. � So that man and computers will be better able to sl~are the burden of work related to environmental changes in our society, such as energy conservation and problems related to the aged etc.; the intelligence level of computers will have to be increased to the extent where they can comprehend ' ' the environment. So as to expand the capabilities of our . sensory organs with . the aid of computers; development of ' sensor technology, and functions such as pattern collating ~ abilities where a computer is connected to these sensors to 'extract the distinct'ive features of what is sensed, as well as a ' ~ parallel processing ability for real time piocessing is necessary. 3) To enable various forms of information to be made readily and easily available when necessary. ' . The information available through present inFormation processing systems is highly limited with respect to the kinds, . amounts and forms of infarmation we come in contact with in our society. It is necessary to reduce tlie gap and facilitate instant access to a greater amount and wider variety of informa- tion. It is also important to develop a means of access which � enables the easy and accurate retrleval of information needed at that time. Also important is a support system for clarifying the many vague requests made in the real world and essentia( ' Tn;, article mainly refers to the proceeding metioned. 61 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 _ - --a---- ~ Y a a ~ g : v ~ E o . p c p: a ~ q = �u ~ $ e ~ � c a o : M,~, ~ ~ ~ ? a~ $ ~ a g~ E'..� E cw o $ E c g ~ q m 8 M~ a ~ = E C 4 ~ ~ ~ L ~ u L c y ~ ! o E n o~, � c O q q r O ~ g ~ ~ ~ 8~ m O d D ~ ~ O Q C a p a C~ p ~ t S Et y� = t m S� ~ 4 : 4 w ~ ~ e ~ � aTD J V F f I 2 ~ ~'Y ~ m~ _ ~ v O t M V O V 9 O ~ ~ ~ 7 � N C � m Q E - ~ g o t7 -�o � 3 � i ~ , $ ~ W E x ~ E~ , ~M a : V ~ y O N = C7 > H ~ i . O ~ ~ Y .'s i .a~~i r ~ . r o ~ C ~ . t u ~ e � 4 g ~ � E r u a i" g E u ,~o � ~ o tt �i', c o ~ . r c � c a W ` q Q O � ~ ~ ~ o a E 4 a; ~~,�Y N ~ C O ~ C O w Z ~ ~ Z ~ ~ q ~ a ~ . . l0 O ~ d ~ ~ a C N ~ LL C ~ C ~ a N C p $ ~ $ ~ C ~ p � ~ M ~ L V o � ~ a � � ~ c � ~ ~ ~M � ~ e o w c C ~ ~ ~ u o ~ ~ ~ ~ 9 ~ ~ _ a`~ o ~i ~ ~ F' Te a i u 0 m ~ ~`v A1 ~ a w �C r'n 3 t7 62 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 . ~ x ~ . g ~ r~ ~ g i~ u ~ O~: ~ ~ a M ~o a o ; Yv E e ~ w` w . c �e c - a ~ ~ ~ ; 7a �pow.n~i~wiul o . c E ~ c~ ~ o � ~ + -��S o T tS g o ~ > o~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a . ~ ~ ~ '4~ ~ , ~ ~ p ~ :~:p~ ~ U ~ C~M.~:60CC �qO~ O~~jC EnC~~TV'~~OCMYC~C~7~~~ O ~ � ~ ~ � ~ ? ~ Y1 O M M > $ ~ ~ � 4 ] ~ p L y y N ~.�V= o4 q~ ~ 9 ~DaF ~ ~~~~'~gs~ oa i~~~�wE~ ,~,:g�~a~c~~~~�e~o��~ ~~,c�3�c�� $c~~~eZZ ' E~o M~~=qL~E~L~E~~pY~g'~o~~p~"+~ ~ioo ~ E� g ~ "c$ ~4 �~>E~Fp~~` ~ i 3>> 'g4~ '~~~~t~ 3 r~=oa ~ a E~�o n._ o � a Z ~Y � { a~ 3 ~ a. :.c~tawca EA3�� ~~au � a�~ `v~e`-c>oEL~ ~ ~��:i� t uo~ n~ c.~Eic ..a~~o=o3'o a$o�Eo a o ` ~ _ ~ ~ ~ $ a a ~ E 3 � w ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ g E ; > & ~ ~ _ o n.~ $ ~ ~ ~ ~c t E c- . n S Q~~N~n~4T ~~~`~og~EZag~~"x�~;8~t~''~~c: � M~yy �~Le ~ s~~ c'~.o~E'~ C~ C;-~r wpM~u~~ .psgao.� a`o~ E~a�. EE�$~"'$abE~~�~a~";~~�OQav~ ~ E~ �eO1 ~ ~ ~ C =~5 "q M ~ e E~ o w n Z a~~' w Z E E~'~ ~~i Si $ o; u a'E o~= E L~~ v ; ~ 3~ � n c u a S o � ~x '~~>o-� ~ c�t~c� EL ~�u ~ E ~ oei c'i~,,, ~.~s~ q o E> ~ w E $~~~~~`g�8~8qgn~~~4~�~~+E=~oE ~o~~~~:~aa>~~S t L ~~~i- �c. v c HS~E.~~�g~H~+'v~~F~�:5~H~8~~~L'~4a~'S.3�~.{~.3:.a ` N V V Ip g v O 2 6~ Ftlit AFFI~IAI~ U~~ QN~.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500050048-9 technology for enzbling computers t~ be ap~?lied to non~ standardized jobs such as CAD and decision mak~ng suppott . rystems. ~ Computer networks which are capable of accessing dis- tributed data bases, and knowledge bases and capable of understanding the meaning of questions and giving answers are also important. 4) Acquisition of new perceptions by simulating unknown situations. It is expected that we will be able to acquire knowledge of unknown situations by means of large scale simulations in a variety of ~elds such as science and technology, manage- ment, administration, and society. Through realization of ultra-high-speed computers using high�speed devices and parallel processing, precise simulation will be made possible in fields where simulation has been impossible to date. From the standpoint of the ~ user, fifth generation com- puters should function as enumerated below: ~ 1) Easy to use functions capable of being utilized even without professional knowledge. Systerris of this kind should be equipped with (a) ~ functions for the inputting and outputting of informa- tion by way of sentences, speech and voice, graphics, images ~ and the like, (b) functions for the processing of information in a ~ conversational manner by means of daily la~iguage and graphs, and ' ~ . (c) functions for storing common knowledge as well as ones capable of utilizing the specialized knowledge for each ~ field of application. ~ 2) Human substitute functions capable of judgment and � decision making. Ideally, judgments involving logic should be left up to the computer while the data necessary for important decision makings, is provided to the user. The following abilities should be developed. (a) functions which enable automatic retrieval of related information out of vast amounts of stored data in response to inquires, (b) functions which enable conclusions ~to be drawn from ~ inferences based on stored data when an unknown problem is given, and ~ . . (c) functions capable of learning and storing for sub- sequent use solutions to new problems. 3) Functions capable of flexible configurations applicable to a wide range of jobs. . ln order to be able to freely select efficient system confi8ura: tions responsive to various nonatandardized jobs in a wide . variety of applied flelds, the following are required: (a) functions capable of constructing a system optimum for needs in question, (b) funetions capable of handling large-scale computation procxssing and management of a large quantity of data as ~ desiced, and (c) functions that can eastly be upgraded on a building ~ block system to meet increased jobs. 64 FOR OFFICIAL U~E ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 ~ 4) Functions for facilitating programming. Effective utilization of accumulated software and improve- ment of software productivity require: (a) functiona enablir.g a computer to write and modify its own programs, (b) functions enabling a computer to judge and process matters of commori sense without instructions from man, and (c) functions able to cope easily with different types of computers as well as additions to existing equipment. 5) System functions which are reliable and can be used expediently. From the standpoint of system configurations, the foIIowing are necessary: ~ (a) compact system functions having higher cost per- formance ratios, (b) system functions capable of sophisticated distributed processing between distant points, (c) highly reliable functions such as, functions able to recover automatically and minimize the adverse effects of mal�functions, as well as functions to facilitate verification, and system functions of high maintainability, and (d) sophisticated functions to protect secrets. 3. Why ls the Fifth Generation Computer Necessary ? The idea of fifth generation computers sprung from recon- sideration of conventional type computers which are based on the von Neumann model. In the early days of computer development hardware was so exponsive that designers tried to minimize production costs. These early machines were designed around the sequential control of stored program system as proposed by von Neumann in 1946. Designers tried to minimize the functions of computers and to use them at a high rate of efficiency to achieve better cost/performance ratios. Accordingly, today's computers have defects from the standpoir~t of recent technological developments in the field. These defects are: 1) Poor Ability in Non-numerical Data Processing Today's computers are designed mainly for c~ying out numerical calculations irrespective of whether they are used for scienti~c or business purposes, and have a minimi~ed function to process characters or image data and the like. Today's computers are not equipQed with the necegsary functions to process non-numerical data such as sentences, symbols, speech and voice, graphics, and images, etc. However - computers are expected to be developed w}iich will be capable of associative and inference p:oces:>ing such as pattern matching functions which deserve the name of artificial intelligence. Computers such as ~these will be required to widen the areas in which information processing can applied, diversify tl~e forms of processing, and realize u~formation systems that have a hig}t level of intelli~;ence. Computers with new architectures are also hoped for w}~ich not only liave increased 65 FQR OFF[CIAI. USE ONI.Y APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 V~\ V~ ~ ~4/f1a~ ~/i ~li � processing capabilities, but also can put to practical use information management such as data bases and knowledge bases. Computers with new proc�essing functions are desired to improve man-machine interface by developing easy�to-use computers capable of being good assistants for man and to effectively extend tlie range of the human senses. ~ 2) Limitation in Processing Speed and Other Capabilities ~Due to Sequential Control and Linear Memory Model The performance of conventional computers has been increased largely through improvements made to their separate elements, and efforts to improve the system itself have thus far proven fruitless. However, since the high-speed operation of elements themselves has a limitation imposed by the speed of light, combined efforts from the standpoint of both elements and systems should be made from now on to improve the performance of computers. One effort made thus far in . terms of systems is parallel processing. Tltis is not only essential for large-scale numerical calculation such as partial differential equations and for simulators for various systems, but is also needed for speeding up inference and associative processings. Various parallel control systems should be put to practical use w)tich include proposed data flow control that is basically different from conventional sequential control. Due to the diversification of fields of application and advancements 'in LSI ~technology, the merits of distributed processing have come to be looked at in a new light. Distribu- tion of processing cam roughly be grouped into two catego- . ries. One is a regional distribution form in which processing functions and data bases are located near persons in cl~.arge ~ so tliat various resources such as liardware, software, data ~ base and tl~e like can be sliared by many tllrougli communica- tions tines. The other system comprises distributed functions whereia processors of different kinds desig~ied for dedicated uses are connected to each other via higli-speed buses and the like, tlius replacing a system having a relatively small number of processors of one kind connected to a common main memory. The former should serve as a means for realizing a huge information system designed frem the standpoint of ~ ~ users, and the latter should be put to practical use as a means for realizing systems which meet diversified demands. 3) Software Crisis - Increase in Software Cost The cost of software development is ever increasing, and many difficulties have ~een encountered in improving the productivity of such. Wliile architecture lias been proposed wl~ich can accept high-level languages wi~l~ ease, aiid attempts I~ave gradually been made to change ' OS into firmware, emnl~asis is still placed on the utilization of software f~ereto- fore accumulated, and old and inconvenient arcliitecture models are followed. Efforts are required to prepare environ- ments in whicli architecture suited for the new age centering ' around new applied fields or areas can be introduced. When software can be programmed witli increased productivity as a consequence, diversi~ed architecture will also be made possible, tlius opening up prospects for future computer science and engineering. 66 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 4. (mage and Concept of the Fifth Generation Com- pu ter Fifth generation computer systems will be expected to l~ave tlie following basic functions: (a) Problem solving and inference functions, (b) knowledge base management function, and (c) intelligent interface function. These functions will be realized by software and hazdware systems respectively, and will be aimed at maximum scales and performances such as those which follow: Tlie problem solving and inference function will be aimed at a maximum performance of 100M -1 G LIPS*. The knowledge base management function will be aimed at performance capable of retrieval of a knowledge base required for inference within several seconds, witli a core data base machine having a maximum capacity of 100- l ,000 GB. The intelligent interface system will be aimed at making conversation with a computer tlirough the medium of speech, graphics, and natural languages etc., a possibility as well as enabling the exchange of information in a form wliich is natural for man. These functions will be combined into a single general- purpose machine having a system configuration which can meet various performance requirements in a variety of applied Fields. These functions may be arranged so as to serve as machines in whicl~ any one of the functions is reinforced, and as machines they will have a common programming language. Tl~e fiftl~ generation computer system will be aimed at sufficient general-purpose functions and performance require- ments to realize systems for machine translation, question answering and utilization of speech, pictures and images . systems which will be basic and common for a wide variety of applications in the 1990's. The target performances of the basic application systems perceived liere are shown in Table 1. 41. Image of the Fifth Generation Computer System Tlie fiftl~ generation computer system will be considered from two different points of view in order to get as general an image as possible. Tl~e first point of view is a conceptual view of a hierarchical structure including a human system, a modeling system and a machine system, and is centered on how the level of the man-machine interface will increase with respect to its present level. Note: 1 LIPS (logical [nfcrences per Second) means one inference operation of syllogism per second. One inference operation on a present computer is considered to require 100-I.000 steps, and hence 1 LIPS is equivalent to 10'J-1,000 IPS (Instruction per sec). Mrchines of the present generation are of approximately 10�-lOs LiPS. 67 FO~t OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 � v~� v~ ~ ~~.~t..~ ~ v� ~a.. � o g ~ g E o r ~ � ~ E C ~ ~ c ~ g > w .Q e o ~ $ � o x � 4 p w ~ : E'~ E � E � E c'~ y i x 0 }M T c10 M ~ M p N ~An a Z{II ~ G M d M ~ M y q M T ~ \ M O E ~ ~ ~ ~ O C~~ CO m J C E J E ~ 7 C y p C ~ M C ~ ~ 0 C nCur LO C L O C � W E a� $ a:. ~i oEd 9t~ _ $ ~ _ N V -~ir fA ~ ~ y C m � O O ~ C ~ u Q O q O o=j ~ ~ r. ~ O C O O ~ r Y~ t~ ~ w . ~ � ~ > ~ O` i' ~ 9 t ~ L a~ V C O ~ ` ~ L_~~___ O I ~ 1 C O m L r w L q Q ~ o t I 0 I ~ E o~ 3 3 o m E m � o o � o ~ ' `T e ~ n o0 O C q t____L~_____J ~ C E . O t7 ; E. ~ o o m ffi ~ o v .c ~ ~ a ~ E ~ ~ . e o ~ ~ ~ a m m ~ o = E ~ ~ ~v~ c e c � 3 ~ ~ ~ > m r O ~ 7~. wor 4 O d Y E.". ~ o n U C m ~ q O ~ o~ ~ u . Q ~ ~ 0 0 ? C r, i+ q a C o E,; 4 0 ' o ~ x o ogc? o ' ~ ~90 a ~ �~LL ~ o 0 . 4 ~ e ~ O ~r o e p O O ~ p IL a ~ w~ O u ~ o O N � v C W Q ~ ' q~ C > tJ O 0� u~/1 q ~ r' Vl O 4 0 ~ f~A o~`q i o W� o^ ~ O 9~ C �w ~ =~~�n a � �~�$oo c� ` ~ ~ ~ ~ 8 mm~>= ' o ~ �u~ ~ o c ~ m>. m.. 3 > ~o E o~ o � ~ ; ~ ~ q,c~ e ~ T 7 ~ D y.-'~ Q`p M O N Yt oY o U ~ c~ w x v o c a � e W..o W � 3 Y~ ~D ~ m ~ ~ g a - c� ~ pE o. c m U � ~o, e g t c ~ ~ ~ n o O E ' p u .n . _ ~ c~8 ~ ~ pgp O C d ~ t ~ a.. 0 � O C C ~ N a O 0>] ~ O 7 ; T mt 9 ~ tn o�$E.> g ~ o;c� ` � =ED ~ ��"c ~ w '"oa j � a i O 6 ~ ~v~ p� o ; u O O O C O O C ~ ; u ~ m C� o ~ N ,~,w ~1 ~ 'ea o u ~ C O L O p O E O~ 0 O Y r E x ri Y ~ LL G 4 O o O Y+ O~ C ~ ~'o' n- 7 O`f E a A ~r o u ~ M ~ n~m $ MEooeE ~ ~pq~L ~ m O L g C~ ; t C~ U~+ 7 ~j O C C d > N.t cooge M F' O Y M 0 H 10 O~: f: a~ 01 < < C 68 Y FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 ~ - ~ 11N~tIOnM d~t~0~r /n. knpwlWN d~qp~ rn t0~n m~ ~ter~ D~tb~w T~e~inw ?roe~w eontrol m, RMI moON ~Imulnw ~~~Y ~ne~nw~ moa� m. cOminuniGtlOn m. T~N m. s al~c.~� moAN m. M~e~ln~ I~ Slmubtlon lnvk~ m~ehinw b~a m~chlnM SupM pKpnN eOmputrr MLIM IMS CA1 m~Mim d�c`~ lO~MW IMbltl m~morY 60ns HEL~ m~ehin~ tim~ p~nll~l m. dWuOyfny m~ehl~~ tp~e~ p~rNIN m. MIqN�~wplution ~ul~tlon rnKl~l~~ M~phin V~ Sel~n[Ifle rrvie~ m~e~InN m~ehlnw 9~rvle~ m~MInM QOA rtyeh~n~ 100ME h~urlttic m~ehin~ yrphle m~ehin~ Niph~int111ip~ne~ L~vN 1 L~v~l ~ m~ehinw lwr~l ~ Bnin m~e~lm ' ~~~W:~. m~enln~ men+tor m~n menltor ~ � MOnitor N~tl aontrol Fig. 1. An Example of the Fifth Generation Computer Systems The second point of view deals with the fifth generation computer system more specifically, and shows how components are combined into the system as software or hardware. Since it would be difficult to describe the system in its overall configuration, it will be divided into an application system, ~ftware system, and a hardware system to provide an image ot' the configurations for each system. The application system corresponds to part of the human system in the hierarchical structure described above, the software system corresponds mainly to the modeling system, ~ and the hardware system conesponds primarily to~ the machine system. The image of the flifth generation computer system can be ~ grasped more clearly by combining ~he foregoing two points of view. 1) A Conceptual Image of a Fifth Generation Computer System As shown Fig.l the ~fth generation computer system will be oriented toward processing knowledge information and will have quite a high logic capability. Its greatest feature will be that interface between man and computer will greatly approach the human level. Conventionally, man�machine interface has been via proce- dural programming languages. To solve a problem with the 69 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500050048-9 Table 2. Themes in Research and Development of the Fifth Genention Computer System 8nie ~pplleatlon 1-1) M~ehin~ u~ntl~tion rist~m syft~m~ 1-21 Qu~stion anw~v~rinp svst~m 1-3) Appll~d ~pNCh und~rtundlnp sV~t~m 1-4) Appli~d pletur~ and imp~ und~rstendinp sy~t~rt+ 1-Bl Appli~d probl~m wlvtnp sy~tsm B~~le wftw~r~ 2-1) KnOwl~dp~ ba~ m~~p~m~nt sy~tem sy~t~m~ 2-2) Probl~m wlvinp snd ini~r~ne~ ~Y~t~m 2-3) IntHlip~nt int~rf~c~ sYnem N~w Wv~~e~d 3-1) Loyle propnmmin0 m~hin~ ~rehit~etun 3-2) Funetioml m~chin� 3-3) Rd~tlonN slp~bra m~ehin� 3-4) Abst?~ct d~t~ typ~ tuppott msehinr 3-5) D~a flow m~ehfn~ 3-81 In~ov~tlv~ von N~umann mschln~ Dlstrl;~ut~d func- 4-1 ~ Distributid funetlon archit~ctur~ ' tlon ~rchit~ctun 4-2) N~twork ~?ehtt~ctur~ 4-3) Dat~ b~f~ maehin� 4-4) Hlph-tpNd num~riesl eompuution m~ehins 4-5) Hiqh-IwN m~n-m~chin~ communiestion fY~t~m VLSI t~chnolopy 5-1) VISI ~rehlt~etur~ 5-2) Int~Ifiy~nt VLSI CHD fystem SWtmstis~tion 6-t) IntNliy~nt proprsmminp syst~m t~chnolopy 8-2) Knowlsdp~ bn~ dNipn ~y~tem 8-3) Syst~m~tlt~tion t~ehnolopy for eomputsr arehit~etur~ , 8-4) D~t~ b~q ~nd dlttrJbut~d dsta b~a ~ytt~m � Dw~~opm~nt of 7-1) Ow~lopm~e+t fuppo~t systsm �upportinp t~eh- noloqy help of a computer, man has ~rst had to describe, model and program the problem. Humans�and computers have been able to understand each otlier only through programs tlius prepared. With fifth generation computer systems, however, the description and modeling of a problem will take place at interface. In other words, computers will be able to understand problem descriptions and from that express a modcl, and syndiesize a program based on such modeling. Man wiil be able to communicate with computers by using speecl~, natural languages, pictures or images witli a certain extent of free~lom. To realize sucli sopl~isticated capabilities, Uotl~ sc~ftware and l~ardware sl~ould be functionally improyed. Eig.3 sl~ows a conceptual image of such a system iii wl~icl~ tl~e macliine system indicates future hardware. It can be understood from . tlus Figure that tlie machine system lias functioiis mucli higher in level tlian tl~ose of conventional macfiines. If we compare tlie old with the new in terms of programming languages, conventional macl~ines use procedurai languaRes on tlie basis of sequential execution, wl~ile tl~e new macl~ine system will use logic programming lar~guages or program solving languages for trial-and-error logical inferences. The modeling (software) system illustrated above will be highly effective software for such hardware and will serve 70 ' FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 mainly to perform meta-inference functions for problem solving sucli as understanding problems and ~synthesizing programs. Sincc the level of logic programming languages is quite high, the modeling system can be a man-machine interface ~ during tl~e period of transition before tlie Cnal object is accomplished. However, input processing in tlie form of everyday language, pictures, or images etc., in order to minimize the incompleteness and vagueness of inputs, is indispensable if we wish to allow tlie next stage of development. ~ APPllutlOn Int~r/~c~ API A?7 Arn ~ M~n�m~t~in~ Innrf~t~ K nOwlWp~ InlOrm~tlon proew~iny ~wum (KIPSI ' ~ L~nyupllnt~rf~e~ Vlrtud M~ehln� . . ~ Aeeq~ intwl~e~ ~ V~~IUN P~OCMfOr VIItY~I Vlrtu~l d~t~bn~ m~Cnlm n~twp~k m~C~lm ~ Th~ 11nt ~Irtu~lie~tlon , r ArraV ~ Med1� I Glob~l ~ LOe~I HLIM ~ 5.770 ~ ' i OS procnwr DBM eommun~ution ~ commonk~tion o~oe~uo. ~ Processor ~ p~a~~~~o~ ; procmor TM ~~cond vNtu~lfi~tioo FunttionNlY tl4tNbuHd rNl m~ehiM ~ Th~ thirtl vntuNia~tion VLSI CAD SYmm Fig. 2. An Example of Hierarchically Organized Logical Model of the Knowledge Information Processing System Conversely, a function will be necessary to add some vagueness and incompleteness to original responses for obtaining sum- marized outputs. The modeling system includes an intelligent communication system capable of understanding speech, natural languages, pictures, and images at tliat point when it interfaces witl~ the liuman system. Tlie intelligent communication system itself will be realized as a sophisticated knowledge information processing system I~aving modeling and machine systems such as described above. The fiftl~ generation computer system will always utilize knowledge required in series processing, beginning witl~ inputs such as speeclt, natural languages, picture or images from t)ie human system, and extending to understanding these inputs, synthesizing and executing programs around tliem, 71 ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 ~'vh V~'\'~~.~Aa~ vJ~. VI\?,~ A ~ � a C ~ j C ~ ~ S~ t s, t ~ C xY ~ y E� E i o 4 E o a E ~i ~ ~ E - ' - - o � : ~ i $ o . ~ o i � m � E ~ e~ ~ ~ e~ c o: ~ c e~ j ~ t ~t i 3 o w ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ dccE ~ YaE dE ~ L N e ~ J` uo~tnu�w,a.+ y~~MOU ` ~ � 6uiwwuloia ~~ep~ y � ~ o E rn $ c g� i E o O~ O ~~''�v 1 ma` "o, Y Y . ~ C ~0d'i,,~ ~ O ~ �i eu,u~~o. E d ~ t .C > C .q M LL ~ ~ ~ ~ > c 9 c E ~ ~ � > c o ~ , ~ : 4 O~ 4 ~ ~ ~ p ~ ~ ~ O 61 a. o; ~ E,r �`9~` ~ ~S~ ~n a~:.~ ~Q o or ~o E Y � c O ~yi~1~~ Y ~ LL ~ e~ ~a~,M ~ . ~ ~o`~~~.\ ~ a 'p ' i ~8g o~ ~ d ~E~oc~~ ~~9~E o~. a~~ r~_ M o~ c M& E ~ w o U~ E a~" Y~a.av ~ M . bpo~, ~~~p~1 Ol CO l~~d''~MnEu~~ NinUu LL p b~~0u~~ infl tf .Q C 4 C � E ~ x 72 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40850R000500450048-9 and generating responses. This knowledge includes a know- ledge of languages, knowledge of images, knowledge of problem domains, and knowledge of the mechanisms and data expression of the machine system, all stored in a knowledge base. With the functions of the machine system being sophisticated and amplified by the modeling system in this way, our ability to process information will be greatly improved. 2) An Image of the Configuration of an Application System Structures common to various systems such as intelligent CAD, intelligent OA, intelligent CAI, and intelligent robots which will also be realized in the fifth generation computer system are shown in Fig. 4. All application systems are composed of three subsystems, namely, interactive, processing and management. These three subsystems will be proportionally different from appiication system to application system. These subsystems are illustrated in Fig.S, showing their mutual relationship and internal operation to clarify the various functions tliey perform. Speech, natural languages, pictures, images or their com- ~ binations are used to put a question to the system. Tl~e interactive system utilizes the knowledge inherent in the languag~ or pictures to analyze a structure (construction) and convert it into a.n internal (intermediate) expression such as an antomical tree. Then, an analysis is made of that meaning in context and a description of tlie problem is extracted from that. This, however, is incomplete due to omissions and the like. Knowledge used here about context and background knowledge, wluch is used at this time, is information related to the background and flow of the conversation taking place. The processing system converts the incomplete description into a complete description using its knowledge about problem domains, and generates an answer to the description. At this time, operations such as effective utilization (inference) of the knowledge of problem domains and storage (learning) or new knowledge are effected. The generated. answer is then converted into a summarized answer by getting rid of unnecessary, self-evident information. There- after, this summarized answer is converted by the interactive system into an internal expression, wluch in turn is converted into an external expression understandable to man. In this � way, one conversational cycle is completed. During this cycle, the management system oversees a variety of knowledge for effecting common operations of inference and leazning. 3) An Image of the Composition of a Software System An image of the composition of a software system for Int~r~ctiv~ tytt~m Prochsinp syft~m Msn~p~m~nt tyst~m Fig, 4. System Structu~e 73 F~R OFFIGIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407102/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 ~~Va\ V! \~~~.~Ar VJ~.. Vl\LJ� SpNeh, n~turd I~npu~, ynpht, impw & o. ~ ~ Structur~ (Nnt~nt~) ~ o~ synthNit Struetun (co~struction) ~ndyfit ~ c~ o ~ YqC C ~ Y v O p L V C ~ J e g 0 Int~rnal expr~pion Int~rnel ~xpression ~ 0 e O ~ ; . ~ ~ o > o ~ w Y C O 7 > " O � e ~ Y Expnaion p~na~tion Mwninp, cont~zt ~nd ~ndy~if e ~e t�~ ~ c a - 0 O~ 9 I � O ~ C ! Y � Summa~it~d snn~r~r ~neompl~t~ d~seriptfon 0 E O A M C ~ O � ~ E c� o ; v ~ o An~w~r p~n~ration Problem und~ntandinp E . a o o ~ $ o Y n ~ 0 O A ~ ~ M p Orlpin~i ~~sw~r Compl~t~ dNerlptlon N c � Y ~ ~ ~ O 6 L~~Vinp - - Probl~m iolvlnp Inf~rencs Fig. 5. Mutual Relationship and Internal Operations of the Three Subsystems in an Application System 74 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 realizing various application systems is shown in : ig. 6, the . software system d'uectly reflecting the structure of application systems. (1) Basic software systems Thex will be the core of all systems and consist of a problem solving and inference system, a knowledge base management system, and an intelligent interface system. These systems correspond respectively to the problem solving and ~ inference machine, the knowledge base management machine, and the intelligent interface machine, and may be defined as those which cannot be constituted as hardware in realizing func- tions. (2) Intelligent systematization support systems ~ These will be a group of systems which, in designing and producing (systematization) optimum information processing systems for various applications, will have knowledge of what is to be produced, production processes, and the like for greatly reducing the amount of work which man will do in systematization. These systems include subs}rstems which lead from a strict specification description language and a described spec~cation to what is to be produced, or a ~ -----r--- I Applic~tion I syst~m~ ~ I ~ ~ Bnle ~pplie~don ~ ~ytt~m~ ~ ~ I ~ IntNlip~nt utillty ~ syst~mf ~ I I I ~ IntNlip~nt syaim~tizstfo~ ~ ~ fuppoK sVn~ms ~ ~ IntNlip~nt I Probl~m-wlvinp I ~ inarf~c~ ~Yst~m ~ 6 inf~nnc~ sy~t~m I I ~ ~ ~ I ~ ~ I I ~ ~ H~rdw~n s st~m ~ L - ~ }E- ~ � ~ +y I I m M ~ ~ N I ~ Knowl~d~ bs~~ man~am~nt I ~ , sy~t~m ~ I I ~ I ~ i ~ I I I Ba~ic knowl~dp~ b~N ~ I I I I � I I I I Fig. 6. Conceptual Diagram of the Com- position of a Fifth Generation Computer Software System subsystem for verifying correctness, and a subsystem for simulating operations, and the like. It also comprises three 75 FOR OFFIC[AI. U~G~ ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007142/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500050048-9 . . _ _ support systems, that is, an intelligent programming system for handling programs, a knowledge base design system for hand[ing a knowledge base, and an intelligent VLSI design system for handling VISI chips and computer architecture. (3) Intelligent utility systems These will be a grcup of systems which will provide sophisticated functions to facilitate utilization of the system . itself. These will be comprised of a system for maintaining transferability to transfer stored programs and data bases from existing commercial machines to a target machine, a system~xplanation and education system for explaining the functions and use of the overall system and subsystems and for responding to user's consultation, an intelligent trouble diagnosis and maintenance system for automatic inspection and recovery and for guidance and consultation about inspec- tion and repair of complicated trouble, and other systems. (4) Basic knowledge base Universal knowledge used by the system itself and by the users wiil be arranged as basic knowledge bases which are components of the foregoing systems and are employable in application systems which users will make. There are largely three knowledge bases: a general knowledge base similar to common sense; a systems knowledge base which will gather knowledge related to systems; and an applied fieids knowledge base which will gather knowledge about certain applied ~elds. The general knowledge base includes bases of basic words of everyday use, basic sentence patterns and basic scripts, a ~ base of dictionaries of vazious languages and sentence con- struction rules, and other bases related to natural languages. ~ The systems knowledge base includes bases containing specifi- cations for tlie system itself, such as a processor specification description base and an operating system specification descrip- tion base, a language manual base, a program module base ~ containing programs which are highly usable, and other bases. ~ Tl~e application knowledge base includes a VISI design tech- ~ nology base, a computer architecture base, a basic program base, and other bases. (5) Basic application systems Tl~is group of systems will be developed as basic application systems and have respective final target performances. T}?ese systems will be very valuable and will be a source of knowledge . bases and sophisticated-function modules commonly usable . by various application systems. The systems are largely classified as follows: � Machine translation system � Question answering system � Applied speech understanding system � Applied picture and image understa,nding system � Applieci problem solving system 4) Future of Hardware System Structur,� (1) A profile of fifth generation compu:ar systems ~ Eifth generation computer systems, covering all sizes from the small ones for personal use to tlie large-scale computers, will find application in various fields. These will include machines for exclusive use as well, incorporating particular strengthened functions like the existing data bas~ macliines 76 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FI Aacw u turN lan0up~ ~p~A, pieturN, Hiph-IwN Inquiry Inalli~nt int~rfaq I~nyup~ W~~ Cor~ Knowl~d~ baw I~n~~ Ext~md intKfae~ m~~p~m~nt oi th~ bMie ~yst~m sofew~n syst~m Knowl~da Wa en~na~m~nt ~yst~m Knowl~dp~ b~M IntNli~nt Int~rhe~ rrHn~am~nt ~y~t~m ~yrt~m Balc wftwsr~ r� ~Y~tMn Probl~m-wlvinp 6 inf~nnc~ syrt~m Probl~m-~olvina 6 inf~n~c~ meehin~ Lopie propnmminp Isnpup~ Inallip~nt int~rf~e~ Knowl~dp~ baM m~chl~~ M~rdw~r~ ~y~t~m r RNstfond ~ ~ ~~pwn i s � ~ ~ ~ ~u~ i 3E~ i ' :ri Zi~ RdationN d~t~ j t ~ Y ~ ~ r baN m~ch~ni~m ~ D� Y ' O a E Y i a~ E ; E D lstr i but~d funetion i / nnwork ~y~amt VLSI archftyetur~ Fig. 7. Basic. Configuration of the Fifth Generation Computer Systems . grouped into a community by a local network. Tl~e computers u~ this community may be classified accord- - ing to their abilities, but in so far as they will share a common programming language, they may be looked upon as members of a new computer family. From the standpoint of their basic software interface, tl~ese . computers shall I~ave three functional components. 7 hese are listed below with the corresponding components (in parentheses) of existing computer systems: 77 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500050048-9 . . (a) Problem solving and inference macl~ines (CPU) (b) KnowleJge base management macliines (Mcmory and filing system witl~ virtual memory) (c) Intelligent interface machines (i/O channels and devices) These three . compunents will form part of eadi computer system. A generat-purpose ~ftl~ generation computer system will be equipped with each of these machines in substantially the same pruportion, wltereas a small system witl~ the same structure will form a general-purpose fifth generation per- sonal computer. A computer system with enhanced problem solving and inference computer. This will find application in fields like consultation requiring professional knowledge, calling for strong ability to infer. Systems witii reinforccd knowledge base management function will be ca~led knowledge base computers. Like the existing data base machines, tliey will be applied in ~elds requiring storage of `Knowledge' in laree masses. Computers incorpurating an enhanced intelligent interface function will be provided witl~ an interface witli variou~ interactive media, speech, picture and image as well as tliose based on natural languages. [t will be possible to use tliese machines independently or in combination. Figure 7 shows a conceptual image of the general fiftl~ generation computer configuration. Computer functions will be available at various levels and their combinations will create a wide range of machines covering both the small personal computers and large-scale machines incorporating each function to its maximum extent. (2) Profile of the structures of machines serving differ~nt functions Hardware architecture shaping the functional components will be based on a combination of six machines. Tl~ese are the six machines that are being studied as the likely candidates to establish the new architecture. The machines will be so combined by adopting the distributed function architecture, namely by applying modularization, adoptation, and micro- programming techniques. For smaller computers of moderate performance, a firmware base architecture built on the innovative von Neumann technique will be adopted. Language interfaces will center on new languages of both the predicate logic and abstract data types. Thus, the results of study on both the logic programming machines ar?d abstract-data type support macl~ines will be made use oC in programming. For the powerful large-scale computers, data flow machines including functional machines will serve as the core technology. For the problem solving and inference computers~ the execution part in tl~e logic programmtng macl~ine will use a large�scale data flow mechanism for its execution, and the knowledge . base will be processed by a small-scale liigli�speed relational ~ algebra machine. The relational algebra maeliine wip use a suitable data f]ow mechanism for its execution. A large-scale knowledge base computer will use as its cote a large-scale relational data base machine including a relational 78 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 : � M ~ C1 q ~ M 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ [ r ~ E a 0 m ~ ~ 0 N E . ro ~ rn M ~ ~ a� o � ~ m o a E ~ ~ ~ ~ c o o m o' O a~ C d ~ L ~ ~ ~ O w N ~ ] 7 m pp ~ 0 N O ~ fn ~ L L O N O 7 _ W _ o ~ _ ~ _ y o D ~ E E cv � � 1O o ~ a ~ ~ ' ~ ~ yF � ah o~ . o � $ � o~i = a o ~ o 0 E~Q ~a f 0 ~ E ~ � ~ o� ~ U Q W Q ~yO N N ~ � ~0 7 ri j $ ~ . d ~ in ~ _ ~ 1 ~ 79 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500050048-9 ~ 00 q'E `o � ~ ~ c E M c O LL p u � .V 4 u 4 D n O O V Y C o E L'o E o w a � M 4 � w ~ M > o C M e O ~ o C~ 0 0 ~~E~~ ~ fi ~ � � ffi � o c w . � y c C q~ a ~ o � a ~ ~ O 10 q V J 0 O p A C ~ C LL " ;m >oo.�a~ s ~ ~~E ~ ~ ~ ~ � 9 ~ 9 G ~ ~ r' ? ` l`O O T m�~' ~ ~ ~ u ~ A L M N O oC'? O 7 Z o~ ~ C?t7 O r C O O O p o E y~ p D E r d m O C w 7 w" N 9 m ~ O N n t ~ ; E~~�n Eo ~.5~�m0 COo�m ~ Q~ � ~ o~ o a~ . ~o O ~ q ~ 4 ~ O o C OO� ao` ~ 0 o a O a~ E ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ " m 0 c'" a �~N ~ e.~'. e ao Q m ~'Ev Y C F ~c . o ~ O m 0 L O O ~ 4`+ C 2 L ~ u u r ?�M n oE~E ~ ~ � ~ ~ m p 3 ~o m V V A L �~7 O~ ~ J ~ m ~A ~ N C ~ o O~ q C p m o'" ~ [ ~ .m, a C M O ~ aE~ ~ E':` N 10a �u~~o� 3 > y n"ao ' c ~m�-- v~ p~� 4~�~ EE4C �~q~~~ o ~ � a� o a-� _ I= o O c ~ T�~ o� o o� o C � � U.,av yO~S2 ; ~ O L N ~ ~ ~ O ~ C ~W Q ~ 7 ~ ~ r W 10 OI 0 o ~ ~ ~ ~ a c o . 3. n E ~ ~ v yooc�w m` ~ a~ U � ~ J L Y w M O N C ~ ~ .ni t o ~ > : ~ 'O O a 9 ~ - ~`o aE ~ Naa'�pQm �M ~ U E oN LL qQq$'0~~~ ~Ec~q~E qqbc"Ya o0 i~ E ~ w ` t N O V O~.~. L ~2 o Q! O ~n ~ u c a O N ~ C v ` ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o 4 " LL aN y'0 mo U9mG_w N OE2w � � 0 7 u o � o w � u > ~ }C O m ~ q 0 ~ ; M w N o L~ ~ ~ T M 0 N W C ~ O C p . -m ~p ~ ..00 p C t9i ~ u~ O~ r~i w ~ ? a; m W v U" 4 p 7'O ~ N� W ~ o~e� a E � u u u�'-. ~o r E �3~ yN n N .Nmm ~2~ N>y m W . . b (D . . Q . . (A � . ~ a~ FOR OFFICiAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500050048-9 algebra machine. Results of studies on the abstract data type support machines will also be used. The supporting hardware in the intelligent interface system will include a VISI processor for exclusive use in speech and a signal processors. Data flow machine techniques, including functional machine techniques will be used frequently in high-speed operations. Tlie data flow machine will constitute the basic execution mechanism for high-speed processing, and hence sliould be taken up as one of the. main subjects for research a~~d development. A number of customized VLSI's are ind spensable for the machines, and, therefore, development of VLSI-CAD to produce such VISI's in a short period is to be treated as ttie most important theme from the standpoint of packaging. (3) Macro image of the ~fth generatinn computer structure Fifth generation computers will be linked to communication systems to form a global network suitable for various social organizations. Potentially, each node in such a global network, that is, each computer site, will constitute a system connected by a local network to two or more computers. Tlie local network, capable of high-speed data transfer, will connect computers of different functions, including the smaller personal computers, tlws making up a general-purpose group (commu- nity). As the macro image suggests, a fifth generation com- puter system will be a collection of computers serving different functions: a small, general-purpose personal computer, a knowledge base computer, and a problem solving and inference computer all connected by a local network. In principle, the component computers will have a oommon programming language. These computers, therefore, will form a computer family linked by a common language even though they may be intended to serve different purposes with one or the other of the functions enhanced. A structure of this nature will help build up a flexii~le computer system suitable for the intended applications. ,As the above suggests, hardware and software research and development for fifth generation computer systems should be carried ~out so as to allow them to be connected by local and global networks. 5. R & D Program The Fifth Generation Computer Project is to be carried out over the next 10 years. (Table 3) Based on the results of three years study by the Fifth Generation Computer Study Committee, R& D will be divided into three phases. In the first 3-year phase basic technology R& D will be completed. In the second 4-year phase subsystems are to be developed and in the final 3-year phase a prototype computer will be devel- oped as a result of total system integration. Referring to the prototype, private companies will produce their own com- mercial models to be put on the markat. 81 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 ruK urr~~iw~ u~~ u?v~.Y ~ ~nt n~p ol 1~eoM nq e/ Im~W ~t~ a.OhefN~~ INMtl In~Ml,n ~UN pr~a~Wn~ nrMU i~nH ~1p~ ew~c we~w��n ~7�7 11 rnr~r ~O~e~rlut~om s~cona.rv w~d~~utwn TrIN OrOOUttion ef ~n D~vMOpm~nt o1 ~ OrototYp~ Tri~l qppucnon el ~n MpMlmMql ~YKMn I~ � InIM11Mnl 1n1r4c~ �Nuruen wu~m n'~t�^ w1pysreiny m~Mln~ IMeonA ~Oitlon) WR~n Tf tp~ vwleu~ ~ntN~ly~nl Iflr~f ~plelon) InlNi~e~ ~~fMM OM~TIMIIM O} NKIHC~f10M OI A7�7 pKIM I~MOwM~ 111 R npwlMM b~MO T~nN? .r.~~,,, Co~ucfbn oi a~n ra Mmuy fpeeilk~tiont S~eoeanr w~eiNcnion~ Tl ~7 ~ynln~ ~ MnowMtlO~ ~rim~ry p~e1Hu[lom pw~+ ~n~nprn~nt DwrNOpm~nt o~ ~ O~ototYM ~Y~~M~. 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F g V � Ec'~c D`cY`- Ec ; S�~o =�u: p 6 C~V M ~ C ~ C O a v u~~; aEMo ~E:o ZE~~ cEy: 'E~ O e ~ ~ ~ I � ~ 7 = � ~ ~ _ + ~ ; ~ ~ ~ ~ n E ; j~~ j~ nA~~ o~�� .0~3.. >o>c .o>v �S I V I�J , V ' If) 88 FOR OFFICiAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 iQ ~ M ~ ~ ;ju : � g E : � ~ C ~ M � L C ~ q~ ~ ~ ~ E M ~ y n � ~ i ~ C ~ ~ � A r ~ � ~ < < M E � a ~ ~ ~ t ~ E ~ v ~ c n o s ~ ~ : ; M ~ ~ ~ c� E i o D a ~ ~ E ~ " a ~ � ~ u v c ~ ~ c ~ i w ~ Q+~ ~ ~ ~ E ~q �u n~ Y 4 M ~ C w Z w w ~ O t O~ O = O ; C pi o'r~.S E oo n "c � o~~ o~ ~ =N~~o g $a8 ~g~ ~ : L � 7 c s'w E� n E ~ g E c S w ~ 3~ . ~ � t ~ " ~ ` ~ � + ~ ~rr ~ ~ � � M " C 9 O � ~ O ' a ~ ~ ~ ! V ~ E w � 1+ C P O ~ ~ Y ~ ~ ~ ~e� ~ ~~5�~� ~~in � x~~�~ c~M +~a ;n~ E :r!go �2�~ 'EY O ~ L ~ A � C ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~'i ~ ~ n O � ~ ~ q ~ � E � O A N- f�- woE~~ =o~~: E~.~'ovco`-' ;M~=c E � E L i $ : ~ : ~ n ! E ~ w ~ � w ~~1 o n �c > ` � ~ O L ~ ' E ~ ~ ~ U~ C ~ ~ ~ ~ + o ~ ~ Y ~ w Q Y 7 �O3 E ;,o� >~o~ ~ to�.m,a~ �w~ZSxE; ' a�� p~a�o y~iM~ ~ �a~�~~daa o�~c~E ~ O 3 e � ~ 7 � p ~ ~ � + + u ~ ~ ? � " u ; o t a � ~ � D ;,n.q aa~E._�e-EE..�; � ,.a~ ~u~0 w E~~�'.'~~~~EO.>~~~~ESx~ ~ 03~~~ E � � a�� " .>>a~-.>p ~~a,..$~ aEs �.j~g'c ~'S'~co� ~c�~ ~ co a ~ c~ ~ N~~ O t7 n a~ O~ ~ n w a n Q LL Q v E~~ E C a, Q u E N= N N ~ N U~N Vl gF-~ d S~ D . � � ~ ~ N ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O � O M ~ S~~ � O ~ ~ c~. ~ o~ ~ E 3 Y Y o u Eo !!~~S F��E ES � � .�-w� ~ M> y t ri ~ � P L ~ C 7 Y~~ n D . ~ . � ~ � n ~ E ~ ~ � ~ u " . ~ � ~ ' ~ N ~ u : C q / 9 L ~ = r ~ ~ : ~ ~ C C `jME $'OU;a~~ av$~E n ~E vF ~a'Q~ nY o~ o ~ u v13 ~~oi � g~p ~~iE~ ~ tc ~ . o O E>~ ~.=~�~~E ~oYo�~~ N: ~ ~ ; o ~ ; ; M ' a : ~ a ~ ; ; : ~ ~ : M ~ 5 v ~ � ~ �:Y ac~ � c Na >i c~ o E'~i p o o ~ a c o u� c � Q~a o~;~~E ~ ~E~o~~;a ~es~~~ _ ="~O� :x~`�=~jE v�'a~0.b ~ �.y� J q ~ ~ ~ q ~ E ~ ~ C C ~ ' ~ � C ~ ~ C ~ ~ ~ N ~ p. C~ n 0 ~ w~- ` E ~ o i� i i c~� ~0 � c ~~~E� ~,~~~'Zc ~ N~`E . ~ x : ' i ~ E � ~ ; ~ E w ~ M j � -�E c o �c 3~~ �~'E~ ~ c~~> oa a E Y�> .�o�~ ~x0~~ Z$&�~~~~ ~~~c~o~ ``~w" c�+�cy� `'iC~p_~ E ~tr ~i~" o tn.~� N O t~ 7 N V C F v . O v~ S 0 N Q~ 3~ ~ ~ Q n 1 If1 10 Ib m i 89 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R004500050048-9 rvn vrr~~.~n.. u~.. v:~~.i ~ � ~ w ~ ~ ~ C x~a . ` ' ;~'gt ~g~ o t; ~�~g ~y sg~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ o ~ � ~g Z M L: o = ~ wg a F'~ rii O~; ~F ~~F ~ ~ 9 w 7 L ~ M t ~ np o 9~ Y i~= ~ 4 ~~i�~ ~~c~~ c_�~�3 ~~no > ~';s` ~a~t~ ~Eo~ v Yo+~ v~ ~Ea 3io~i o;~o� �~i~~ goo�~ ~~9: EcE= E.'~~, ~ Eo~g ~ $~3C o�=~~ 'o�-'~~ of~ � �-rNo .og= ~ : . c�._ ~ . ~ n D y j. o 0 n4�.~ n~~~� o>~~ u ~ ; n n COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 90 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 SCIENCE AND TEQiNOLOGY POLYMERIC MATERIALS IN EI,ECPRONICS Tokyo TECHNOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 48-49 ~~~J With the advance of electronics in recent years, polymeric materials have much developed, as major materials in elec- tronics. Here, the present situation of polymeric materials is given by introducing an outline of a paper delivered by Professor Shogo Saito of Kyushu University. 1. Insulating MaterWa The most important problem to be overcome by insulating materials used in electronic equipment and devices, is to realize superior heat-resistant properties. The work in synthesizing new polymers in recent yeacs that satisfy such is not so remarkable, but rather much developing work is along the lines of improving the molecular structures of the heat-resistant polymers already synthesized. One example is imide prepolymer having a reactive molecular end. &cause this polymer dces not contain volatlle components such as residual solvents, it is suitable to meet requirements as a melt .urable or melt-processible heat-resistant polymer for use as an electrical insulating material. Representative poly- meric insulating materials used in high-density integration of so-called microelectronics, are polyirude and epoxy resins, and so, here new trends of both of these resins are described as follows: An interesting aspect of polyimide used so widely, .is the development of polyimide isoindolo-quinazolinedione (PIQ resin) by Hitachi. The difference in chemical structure be- tween PIQ and ordinary polyimide is that PIQ contains a ladder structure having good thermal stability in the polyimide chain. a~ _ ,R,~N~C ~R/ ~ N II O (R~ , Rz : aromatic ring) PIQ film can be formed by coating PIQ prepolymer on silicon wafer material, and curing at 350�C in a nitrogen atmosphere. This film can endure heating in air at 450�C for 91 FOR OFFIC[AL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-40854R040500050048-9 5 hours. The success of PIQ as a passivation matedal has come as a surprise abroad, and the electronic industries in America and Europe are now investigating use of polymide materials for multilayer VLSI's. And further, a surface treating agent, such - as an organosilane compound like gamma�amino-propyltriethoxy silane, is presented to improve the adhesive properties of poly- imide on silicon wafer material. As for epoxy resin, the deveiupment of improving its heat-resistance and controlling viscosity in applying it to device _ packages, is actively proceeding. One example is the high- molecular-weight linear epoxy resin, developed by Western Electric, which is possibly cross.linked with high densiry. 2. Semiconductor Materials The success of electrofax-photosensitive materials using poly- meric semiconductor materials has motivated applying the sensitisor to the polymer for laser printing. And the subject . is now established as a national project. These activities are intensive, but exact information about developments is not readily available. The following photoconductive polymers are now being studied: (1) linear n conjugated polymers such as polyacetylene, (2) polymers such as polyvinylanthrathene, which have con- densed polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in their side chains, (3) those such as polyvinylcarbazole, which have complex cyclic aromatic compounds in their side chains, (4 j polymers contain- ing allylamine in their side chains, (5) those such as polyimide, which contain aromatic or complex rings in their main chains, and (6) charge-transfer complex polymers, which are obtained by doping low molecular compounds into the above polymers. The photoconductive polymers developed have for the most part features of the so-called separation-type function, in which are used composite structures consisting of two phases, that is, the phase generating carriers by photoirradiation, and the other phase of drifting carriers. And further, the tendency of obtaining desired materials by polymeric semiconductors only is becoming less, whereas that by combining with other materials is becoming greater. For example, the following are the typical laminated function-separated photoconducting materials: (1) polyvinylcarbazole as a charge migration layer and amorphous selenium as a charge generation layer, (2) pyrazoline/polycarbonate (charge migration) and organic pig- ment such as squalilium (charge generation), and (3) 2,5-bis(4 diethylaminophenyl)-1,3,4-oxadiazole/polyester (charge migra- tion and thioindigo derivatives (generation). ~ There are some photoelectric transducing materials using ~ polymeric substances such as (1) trinitrofluorenon/polyvinyl- ~ ?carbazote, (2) polymeric thin film dispersed by phthalocyanines, . (3) polyacetylene doped by a small amount of electron-acceptor molecules, among which polyacetylene type materials will be studied much more for future development. 3. Resiat Msterials ~ 92 FOR O'.'FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 Resist is an important material in electronics; essential to the manufacture of many electronic devices, among which the VLSI is the most important semiconductor device. Photoresist, which has been widely used for some time, has now reached its highest level, and methods of designing the material are considered as being almost fully established although there have been some slight improvements. The current main projects in research and development tend to be for infrared (deep W) resist, electron beam resist, and X-ray resist. Research projects expected to lead to new high-performance resists have been much reported at a meeting of the American Chemical Society lasf year. Main research concerns deep W resist and electron beam resist, among which, one of the important projects is the development of materials to chemically modify esters of polymetliacrylic acid, as previously. A noticeable new tendency is the bold idea of applying organic semiconductors to resist, but it will take mucl~ time to accomplisl~ tlie development because of economical aspects and scnsitivity. Cross-linked polymethacrylates have been developcd, tlius appearing as a positive electron beam resist witli good Eliermal . stability and dry-etching property as: (1) poly(metliylmetl~a- crylate-co�metl~acrylic acid), and (2) poly(methylmetl~acrylate- co-methacryloyl cl~loride). These copolymers contain comonomer units of 10 mole%, possiblc to be cross�linked. These are mixed and formed into a coating film, and ttien, by low-temperature lieat treatment a weakly cross-linked resist film can be prepared. Furtliermore, binary and ternary copolymers, wliicl~ contain any suitable monomer unit in the backbone of polymetliyl- ~ methacrylate, l~ave been developed and are expected to be suitable as new deep W resist. Tiiese copolymers are as follows: . (1) poly(methylmetliacrylate-co-3-oximino�2-butanone metl~- acrylate) CH3 CH3 I. i - CHZ - C - CHZ - C I ~ C=0 C=0 i ~ 0 0 CH3 N 0 CH3- C - C - CH3 (2) poly(methyl methacrylate-co�3-oximino-2-butanone meth- acrylate-co-methacrylonitrile) CH3 CH3 CH3 -CHz-C-CHz-C-CHz-C- ~ i i - C=0 C=0 CN i i 0 0 ~ ~ CH3 N 0 ii u CH3-C - C - CH3 93 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 . Tl~e latter has a. sensitivity 85 times greater than PMMA as a deep W resist, and the sensitiv;iy can be increased two or three times iugher by adding a photosensitizer. And further, the following palynitroamide is receiving attention as a new deep W resist. CH3 CH3 I I - -N-~-O-~j-N-C-~ C N0, NOz i~ 0 n IBM has plans for a new electron beam resist, using a thin film on substrate formed in a gas phase by reacting bromide witl~ tetrathiafulvarene (TTF) which is well known as a com- ~ ponent of organic semiconductor. Also, a negative resist is reported, using a thin film doped by CBr4 into a new polymer syntliesized by binding chemically TTF to polystyrene through covalent bonds. The following chemical reaction is used between TTF and CBr4: hv 'TTF + CBr4 TTF � BrX (0.5 s x S 0.8) It has becn reported that a resolutio~i of 1,000~? has been obtauicd by using tliis resist in a coating film witli 6,OO~A - tl~ickness. COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 94 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 SCZENCE AND TECHNOLAGY YAMAGUCHI SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS C~NTER Tokyo TECHNOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 49-50 [Text] I:DD's satellite communications center in Yamaguchi Pi :lecture is the western entrance of international communica- ~i~ms with Japan. Since its opening in May 1969, it has been expanding as ttie main ground station to deal with such work as station-to-station communications, marine satellite com- munications over [NTEISAT satellites, and tracking, control- ling and testing satellites themselves. Now the cen!er has its own communications parties of 31 destinations in 29 countries, to which about 656 circuits are working. Further, it is now preparing to start a new marine satellite service over INMARSA~T, in February, 1982. All facilities were completed in December, 1981 and tlie center ~ is gaining greater importance in sharing in international communications, to and from Japan. KDD, Japan's in�ernational communication monopoly, has two satellite communications centers: one in Ibaragi Prefecture which aims at having accesses to satellites over the Pacific . Ocean and the ather is this Yamaguchi ce~?tar from which satellites, both over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are ' accessible. The Yamaguch: center is located in ,the wEatern' pazt of , Honshu, Japan's mainland, about 13km a~vr.y from Yamaguchi City. This location was chosen as the Indian Ocean satellite can be d'uectly observed with no interfe*ance from domestic ~ microwave paths, since it is surro~.:;~:~ed by mountains, and little noise exists in spite of beir.g fairly near to a town center. [t is also out of the occasional course of passing typhoons, and seldom experiences earthquake tremors. The center has three main jobs stationary satellite communications, marine satellite communications, and tracking, testing, controlling and maintenance (TTC&Ml. Stationary satellite communications have 31 party destinations in 29 countries, which have been connected mainly over the Satellite ~ N and, now, the center is adding Satellite V over the Indian Ocean in December to which relevant facilities have already been prepared. ~ Marine satellite comm~nications services have been offered to ships~on the Indian Ocean since November 1978, though the marine satellite is now a private one, COMSAT. As the 95 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 ~ ~ ; O Y: V E ~ ' ~.L~ o a,�-~`#l~t! . ~ ~ E ~ ~;I. ; S , i , ~ o e 0 : o ~ ~ Y ~ ; ~~i~ H , C .:;u~, O L 0 m o E~'� / ; _ ~ ~ E ~ ~ ~ e, Y u ' ' � i F- j ~ N ; ' ~'..~c C ~ i L Z' O ~ � ' A i ~ ~ ~ q C C7 . � E ~ ~ > ~ x E . o : ~ - r ~ a ~ _ ' I~ fA M C J ~Q q= Q c p W i~'~~ ~ q i+ ~ ~.~�`~Z-�~ ZE~ ? W 9N - O 2 C ~ ~ ~ OI . ~ C ~ U ' $ r- ~ c 0o E LL q , ~ 1 ? ~ U~1 LL ~I~L ~ ~ L ~ � ~II, ~ _ , , / , . = E ~ g ` o ~ E I ~ a $ c� ~ i ~ ~ o~ LL ~ 96 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-04850R000500050048-9 global system of IIVMARSAT starts to work, the anter is now preparing to switching its dealings to meet the system. TTC&M work is shared with INTEISAT, which has launded and is operating 14 satellites. The center is one of 8 TTC&M offices for INTELSAT. It is actively sharing its responsibllities, for Satellite V that was launched in December, 1981. The center has now eiglit ground stations, of which the four main ones have parabola antennae, 27.5 meters in diameter, for Satellite [V, 34meter diameter for the Satellite V, 13�meter diameter for Marisat, and 32-meter diamster for TTCBrM. Most output�power tubes are TWT's, while that for the marine satellite is ~nly a crystron. As for inhouse plant at the center, distinguished equipment is the digital converter of TV standard signals that is the sole one used in Japan, and other equipment is all the most advanced available. The center's target is to offer highly~qualified communica- tions throughout the world. COPYPIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 97 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R004500054048-9 SCIENCE AND TECI~IIJOLOGY � ACOUSTIC EMISSION TECHNOLOGY , Tokyo TECfIl~iOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 51-52 [Text] Whenever a l~ouse collapses, caused by an eartliquake, a creaking sound is always heard before it ~inally crashes down. Similar to this phenomenon, before any object frar,tures, a similar small creaking sound, inaudible to tlie huma~i ear, is generated, witliout fail. Acoustic Emission (from I~cre called AE) Technology, wliich is detection of sucli sounds by ultrasonic sensors and using them as an application of non- destructive inspection of pressure vessels, lias been making rapid progress cowards commercialization. Such vessels are quite common 'sn the chemical industry and elsewl~ere. To look at die present status of AE teclinology, wliicli quite rapi~ly, has been gathering much attention recently, whenever an object fails, this never happens su~3denly or abruptly. ~Vhen a force is applied to an ob;ect, the object deforms. When the force applied exceeds a certain level, plastic deformation which imparts permanent transformation, occurs even after the release of the applied force. Around ~ the transition boundary from deformation to plastic deforma- tion, a small creaking sound is always genera4ed. As this sound ~ has a frequency of 105-6H2, it is a kind of ultrasonic wave. And as the human ear is only able to hear sounds below 20kH~, it is unable to be detect such a sound. Acoustic �waves in AE originate from slight sideslipping of small crystal structure portions, or from extension of old cracks existing in the object of up to several l0�m, when a force is applied to it. When such a force is applied, cracks in the object keep extending, generating tl~e creaking sound until the object visibly fails. Therefore, if such squealcs can be cauglit by a special AE sensor, the real danger can be detected much earlier prior to any actu~l occurrence of large-scale failure of tlie object. An AE sensor acts as a kind of stethoscope and uses a piezoelectric component, to convert micropressure fluctuations into electrlcal signals. And by using two or more sensors in combination, it is possible to establish the position of cracks in an object. A crack occurring in a metal plate can be detected and the position pinpointed within f a few millimeters. It is said that Dr. Ifaizer of West Germany who, in tlie early ~ 1950's, measured sounds originating in metal wlier~ a force was applied, was the originator of AE research activi:ies. Later 9$ FOR OFFICiAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 on in the 1960's, actual applications of AE technoic~y being used in inspection, in the fislds of rocket, aircraft and other forms of engineering in the United States, actually started. Recently, applications of AE technology~ in Japariese industry, such as in the inspection of pressure vps~els, machinery surveillance in factories and elsewhere, have begun to be put into practice. Application Example No. i ~ Nippon Steel Corp. has been effectively installing AE equipment for surveillance of stee~ plate rolling mills. As the ro~ls in these machines apply a rolling force of several hundred tons, even a slight cracic, say, in a bearing support for a roll shaft, could lead to a dangerous accident by continuing to use such a machine ~�~~thout appropriate action. However, to re~lace such a bearing support with a new one may take many days and it is impossible to stop a production line for such an extended period. Therefore any cracked portions are usually repaired by welding or by adding mechanical bracing. On sueh occasions, if AE equipment is installed, any reoccurnna of the trouble in the welded area or repaired cracks, is swiftly detected. By observing any changing status of acoustic emiasions without stopping the entire production line, variaus methods, such as easing the force applied to the particular rolls or further repairs can be performed as timely action. Extending of a crack which, could not be detected by ultrasonic detection equipment, Gan now be identitied by AE and it is possible to stop a rolling mil! timely before any _ real danger arises. Application Example No.2 ~ An application, as forecasting technology for gas emission accidents in mines, is also underway. Prof. Watanabe of Hokkaido University has installed several sets of A.E equipment at various mines in the Hokkaido and Kyushu areas, to establish the possibility of using AE as a forecasting tool. - In mining opeiations, explosives are used to break out the coal from the seams, but oftPn there aze gas emissions created by the disturbance of the rockbed enclosinR high- pressure gas, leading to weakened strata and landslides occur- ring. It is said that more than 909'0 of gas� emission accidents occur immediately after such explosions. However, the number of immediate emissions or nonrelated or delayed emissions after blasting using explosives have been increasing. ~ Raising of gas pressure is caused by the remoteness of present coal, seams which go deeper and deeper, some over 1,OOOm from the earth's surface, and such phenomena make more difficult to predict gas emissions,.but accordine !fl cunent research, an acoustic emission from as far away as~ lOm from _ such a dangerous locatfon can be detected. The accuracy. _ of being able to predict a gas emission depends on the absolute probability improvement, by the installation of AE equipmen;. Thus the development of easily operated portable AE equ~p- ment has been receiving keen interest. Application Example No.3 . The inspection of pressure vessels used in petroleum refineries, chemical and Fawer generation plants has been 99 FOR OFH'ICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 M'UK UMMIUAL U~~. VIVLY attracting been attention as new applicaiions for AE technology. [n order to 'avoid possible danger, pressure vessels that recxive high�internal pressure aze required under various regulatiuns, to pass regular periodic inspections. On such or similar occa- _ sions, or to verify that a newly built pressure vessel can withstand the designed pressure rating, the vessel is subjected to a higher pressure, higher than normal rating. Inadvertantly accidental bursting of the vessels can occur. This is why there is a des'ue to apply AE technology during such inspections to make detection early and to avoid any �possible danger. In the case of using ultrasonic detection or using uther technology for inspection of giant spherical tanks, over 30m in diameter, inspection may take over a month. However, with AE technology where it is possible to set a~ large number of AE sensors simultaneously on a giant tank, it is possible determine the presence of cracks within a day or so. Nippon Steel has been subjecting such pressure vessels to AE inspection. via its subsidary, as a contract starting 2 years ago, and it is now receiving a dozen or so requests yearly from chemical and power generation establishments. Besides the above applications, inspection of structurai objects, svch as bridges and highways, monitaring for quality control in spot weldirut operations, much used in zutomobile production processes, are some of the examples of the expanding applications of AE technology. CC?YRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co. , Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 100 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 SCIENCE AND TECfIIJOLOGY POLARIZING OPTICAL FIBER Tokyo TECHDiOCRAT in Enqlish Vol 15, No 1, Ju~ 82 pp 52-53 . _ - - [Text] The Electrotechnical Laboratory (ETL) has developed a polarizing device using optical ~ber. Attractlng world atten- tion at preaent, ia how to uae optical fiber itself as a functioning device, not merely aa juat an optical path, for example, by exploiting its long mutual acting diatance to generate high- efficiency nonlinear optical effects or developing, say, an optical interferometer, so as to ada~c optical t3ber to high-aensitivity ' meaaurements. j The polarizing technology just developed by ETL will make an important contribution to uaing optical fiber as a function� ing material. It ia beL~ause to uae it aa auch not only requires single mode fiber as the beat material, but also requires the technology to control polarization statua inside the optical ~ fiber. Conventional technology for light modulation has employed, generally, such excluaive�uae polarizers aa a filter slit or a prlsm. By such methoda however, the connectlon between the device and transmis,don path developa noiae and causes attenuation, which then r.zeda compenaating in various ways. And it results in the overall deaign being complex� or cauaing troublesome servicing. The newly~eveloped method uaes the optical fiber itself as a polarizing device so that these problems are now all solved. ~ The prindple is the same as that of a metal loaded film waveguide path in that, as shown in Figun 1, a part of the fiber-optics cla~.i iay~s is replaced by a metal such as A1 or Au to increase loss of the pseudo�TM wave~ thereby guiding only the pseudo�TE wave with low loss. Thia principle is more specific in terms of structure as follows: a groove is made on - the quartz or acryl substrate, but only very shallow in its middle part and an optical flber, 125�m thick, is inserted in the groove, in the �middle shallow part of the groove, part of the fiber is exposed. An optical t~ber generally consists, in terms of cross xction, a con part which guides the llght, and the cladding around it having a hlgher rofractive lndex than tliat of the coro. By this new method however, the depth of the groove is adjusted so that, only the clad portion protudes. Then this portion is ground to the same flat level as the substrate's surfacx. 101 FOR OFFTCIAL USE ONLY . APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 � V~\ V~ ~l~r~Aa~ VV~+ VlYL~1 Aluminum (mK~l Iaysr) \\a\\\\~ / Index matehinp . Iiqufd Sub~tnt~ i. Ground turf~e~ Si~pl~ mod~ optieal fib~r Cor� Fig. 1. Polarization Device Using Optical Fiber ~ Developed by ETL ETL used a wire saw to make a groove about 140�m wide ~ but only 65�m deep in the middle portIon and 50^�100cm radius on a 5 x IG x 20mm quartz substrate; then they buried a 125�m diameter single mode f3ber (core diameter is 4�m) in tl~e groove with epoxide resin and ground the exposed part. After grinding t'~e surface~ they applied oil witli a matcliing refractive index, almost widi the same refractive index 1.468 as that of the quartz substrate. Further, they positioned an aluminum plate which had undergone mirror finishing, and fixed it using a glass plate, on which in some areas, metal film had been deposited. Into this polarizing device thus con- structed, ETL applied an He-Ne laser beam in the experiment. ~ Tlie He�Ne laser beam passed through a motor~driven rotating � polarizer to undergo circular polarization, then through a Babinet compensator, then projected to the optical fiber. Next the light was divided into two elements at tl~e polarizing device: a Y-mode element whose vector was vertical to tlie substrate and an X�mode element whosc vector was horizontal. Of them, the Y�mode element was subjected to interference of the aluminum plate and disappeared, leaving only the X- mode alone in tha optical fiber. Figure 2 shows an exarnpie of the experiment's results with ~luminum evaporation. ~ � 16 15 m aD 'p 9 g 1O . G o . O ~ ~ C [ � O ~ �j~ � V ~ c S 6 u M ~ K W 0 p 0.1 0.2 0.8 1 2 6 10 M~tChl~p Iiquid thickn~a (�m1 Fig. 2. An Example of the Experiment's Results With Aluminum Evaporation COPYRIGHTs 1982 Fuji Marketing Research Co., Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 102 FOR Ol~'FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 . ~ SQENCE AND TECfIIJOLOGY ~ 100KW WIND-POWER GEN$RATOR Tokyo TEC~IOCRAT in Enqlish Vol 15, ~to 1, Jats 82 pp 53-54 (Text] The Su~shine Plan Promotlon Headquarters of the Agency of Industrial Science and Technology has recently announad tlie specifications for an experImental 100kW windpower generator. With thla move Jap~n has offidally begun. develop� - ment of windpower, although her activitiea in the fTeid thua far have been lagging compared with .Europe and the United ~ Stxtes. ~ ' - . The windpower generators already developed in thia country lia~~e a capacity of only a few kilowatts while those developed in otlur countries are much larger by comparison (see Table 1). These small generators are used as power suppliea for ~el~graph and television repeafers and are also used by some � }~ri�rate citizens. Devices of this type generate AC power which is .;onverted to DC power which in turn is used to charge b4: ceries. This method lowers the efficiency of the generators rernarkably. C~~ns+dering the expense, such generators have ' lirlited application. The main reaaons are the low energy dcnsity of wind power, and its large variationa. Windpower generation has not been conaidered important in Japan thus far becauu of the ~~ery tarb: variatlon in wind energy due to the topography ar,d location of the country. . H~wever, it will be po~ible to c!evelop windpower generation ~ in Japan if the amount of power generated can be held con� ~ Table 1. Current Status of Windpower Generator: Developed in Selected Countriet in Europe and the U.S. (data oollected by the Suruhine Pl~n Headquarterc) o~e~~s ei.d. � . Cou~Kry Nam~ pow~? dl~m~t~r R~n+Wk~ . tkW) I~n1 . U,g. Mod~ 1 Z,000 61 In opn~tlon , Mod~ 7 Z,000 00 In OpN~tlon WNt G~rrn~ny OrowNn 1 3,000 100 Und~r eon~t?uetlon Orowi~n 2 6,000 1S8 Und~r eonrtruetlon D~nnwrk Niw Mod~ 1 630 10 In op~ntion TVIND 1A00 Z7 1~ oPK~tion ~ EnO~~~d 9ACD/ERA 3,700 AO Und~? oonrtruetbn 103 ~ FOR QRFICiAL USE ONLY ~ APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 Vn V~ ~ ~~.LAa+ V?~Li V1~L, / stant despite such large variations. The new generator designed by the Sunshine Headquarters will begin to genera;e power at wind velocity above a aet level~ and will oompensate for excxas wind speed, thus keeping the amount of power generated at a constant value. 'The frequency of the generated alternating Wfnd E d ~ - . N E ~i 12m 12m Fig. 1. Profile of 100kW Pilot Windmill curnnt will also be kept oonstant. Using these procedures, the windpower generator will be operated in conjunction with commercial power lines. In other countries this method has already been adopted. . Windmills used for wlndpoaer generation aze generally of the ~ lift type. The counteracting force type windmill, as represented by the windgauge (anemometer), which has arms supporting cup-like wind acceptors, can be used efficiently at low wind apeeds but loses efficiency as wind speed increases. The lift type windmill utilizes wind energy on the same principle as an airplane's wings (gnater speed produces greater lift), thus the efticiency of utilizing wind energy increases with wind veloaty. Because wind energy is proportional to the cube of wind velodty, the lifting force type windmill is usually used for windpower generation in view of its efficiency. In some windmiUs the rotor axis is parallel to wind direc- tion and in others it is perpendicular: The Sunshine Plan'.s design employs a horizontal rotor axis and a lift type propeller. , Basic experiments on the propeller-type windmill wered performed at the Mechanical Engineering Laboratory using a 1/25 scale model for wind tunnel tests. The number of blades is usually two or three, and the test windmill used two. The use of three blades greatly increases cost while raising efficiency only a few percent and a two�blade propeller is safer consider- ing the high frequency of typhoons in Japan. When wind velocity exceeds a definite value (high wind condition),' the blades change their direction to the horizontal in relation to the ground, and adjust their an~le to minimize wind resistanix. When using three blades, it is impossible to hold all three 104 FOR OF'FICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040500054048-9 btadea horizonta~y, ~tFua increaaing wind~reaiatance, requitTng greater mechanical etrength, and causing aafety problema in the event of � typhoon. The windmill begicu to rotate when wind velocity reaches Sm/s, attaina the rated output :Y lOnt/:, and ato~ rotating at spads above 17m/a, for safety. To avoid variations in alxer- nating current frequency due to changes in wind velocity, It rotates at a constant speed of Slrpm by controlling the pitch angle of the bladea using a microcomputer. The pitch angle is hydraulically controlled. As shown in Figure 1, the diatneter of the propeller is 29.4m, and the height of the propeller axis is 28m. The material of the blades ia GFRP. The rotational apeed of the rotor, S 1 rpm, is changed up to 1,SOO~pm by a multlplier to drive the generator, which is a DC W~k system. Uaing pitch anglt control and frequency control to adjun input to the DC link system, it is poaaible to supply atable electric power independent of wind velocity variations, to the electric power network. Miyakejima is the proposed site. If this pilot wind- mill is sucasaful, the plan ia to construct an experimental ~ windmill having a capacity of 1,OOOkW. COPYRIGHT: 1982 Fuji Marketinq Psaearch Co., Ltd. ~ CSO: 4120/217 105 FOIt OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 SCIENCE AND TECE~IOLOGY OpI~ETITION AROUND VISI'S Tokyo TECFIIdOCRAT in English Vol 15, No 1, Jan 82 pp 54-55 Hitacr~:, Ltd. announad on December 17, 1981 that it would b~gin sale of 256K-bit RAM VLSI's as samples to about 100 user companies from autumn, this year. Thus, these new units are expected to put into commercial applica- tion by the spring of 1983. The production rate will incr~ase from a volume of tens of thousands in early 1983 to hundreds of thousands by the end of 1983. As a result of the announcxtnent by Hitachi, 256K VISI's wiil appear on the market three years earlier than expected, and competition among the makers will suddenly intensify. When 64K RAM's were flrst sold as samplea in the autumn . of 1980, the price of one unit was ~20,000, but after only une year, it sharply dropped to ~2,000. At present, the price is about ~ I,200 but it is expected to drop to 1,000 before ~ long. Usualiy the price of [C's follows the "Learning Curve" ~ theory prop~sed by the Boston Consulting Group of the U.S. which states that price drops 3096 with a two times increase in production. Therefore, a high�production maker can decresse the cost per unit, and increase his profit, thereby gaining a greater market share. The higher market share in turn leads . to increased production and even more favorable conditions. ' These are the practical conclusions of the "Learning Curve." . Tlie fact that Japanese semiconductor makers have become believers in this theory has triggered confusion in the 64K RAM market and created txiction between Japan and the U.S. . - VVhen the technical considerations for market1ng64K RAM's were satis~ed, Japaneae makers began intensive efforts ta expand ~iroduction independent of actual demand. In the � semiconductor industry it is generally considered that im� . portant new products are introduced about every four years. Tl~e market for 16K RAM's haa continued for four years, and clie greater ahare was held by the Amerlcan semiconductor industry. When the age of 64K ItAM's arrived, all the big makers of semiconductors in Japan announced that they would be svppliers of the product. Mitsubislii Electric Corp., the latecomer in the 16K RAM market, joined the group. Oki Electric Industry Co., which had no positive achievements, announcxd it would supply 64K RAM's. Oki Electric was followed by 5harp Corp. in April last year. All these makers 106 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 arc carryfng out thelr plme. It is naturv that pdcea a+ili drop with the incresae of production, independent of real demund. ~ tf the price of 64K RAM'a dropa to ~1,00~ per unit,the ~~ri~e will become comparable to that of 16K RAM's. Then, ~lie users will naturally select 64K RAM's instead of 16K R~~IN's because of the better cost/performancx ratio of the furmer. Thus, the demand for 64K RAM's has grown rapidly. As a result, 64K RAM's ue now replacing 16K RAM's in Japan, and further, demand for them has been gnatly expanded abroad. According to one view, over half the demand in the world is supplied by Japan. It is believed that 8 to 10 mlllion 641~ RAM's were manufactured in 1981, and over 60 million will be manufactured in the world this year. And the pricx per unit is approaching to, about rivo-thirds of that of a l6K RAM. , . 17iis situation is one reaaon for the friction concerning semi- co~iductors between Japan and the L1.S. Although the growtli in demand for 16K RAM's has stopped, its production has not ' . diminished. The price of 64K ItAM's has fallen more rapidly than was e~; pected, so makers have not been able to gain the profits tl~~~y had hoped for. A top manager in the field s:~ys tliat tlu e~:pected profit of about ~5 blllion did not material'ue. Despite tlie previous bright outlook, extremely hard competition in tl~e VL51 field has put companies in a very severe cituation. ]t was generally believed that the market for 64K RAM's would continue far three more years, but competitive sales have iust begun and every maker ia trying to expand produc- ; tus 4 � T Z , . r a u � ~ 104 64K 0 n . ~ ~ 16K ~ B f 0 ~ to3 ~ 4K c _ ~ � o � N '78 '77 '78 '7~ '60 '81 '82 '83 '8~ Fig. Number of Bits Integrated of Dynamic RAM'sIW/W) tion rapidly. NEC~ Hitachi and Fujitsu are siming at reaching a production ~le of one million unlts per month by t}iis spring, and Okl has announcxd that its production of 400 thoussmd units in December last year wll1 be increaaed to 800 thousand in March. Mitaubiahi Electric is planning to produc- tion 500 thousand unita this apring. Toshiba reportedly will expand production equipment to raise the pn~ent monthly production of 100 thousand units to 1 million unita by the end of this year. Sharp~wIll begin production of 300 thousand � 107 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040500054048-9 r~UR ul~~hlCtn~ ~5~. UMLY Table. IC Sales, R&D Expsnsas and Equipment Investment IC r~n 11 i D acprn~ ~q~pn~ IA1 1~1 ~/A IM~t~nt C/A ~ Cempn~d s~w~ i Comprw ICI Cwnw~W Y~~r Imillion wIM (n+llllon wltH Imfllbn wIM I(%1 v~~l p~vbu~ YMI p~vbu~ r~nl pNbu~ yur yM. YYr io� se.aza I - ~s.o~a - ~a.~ n.a~~ - i~.a +o~~ j ea.~on ae.~ u.sal ~a.s za.a �,e9a aa.~ z~.s +a~e ~ ,N�.~e~' ~za.~ a~,ss~ �s.~ 19.9 n,a~a s~.> >o.a tY76 1M.97~ 167.6 Z~.p7 172.9 1~.7 7E.7Yt ~pp.9 21.~ t9)? 166.47? Y1.3 2~.~6e /00.7 16.7 21,Y6B 64.1 14.1 1G78 ~51.lBt iez.o ~7,PY7 16b.4 16.1 ~6An 40D.2 1B.Z 1979 37~,Y70 /N.! 6~,77? 1~1.2 1~.6 51,103 1C3.t tYBO ' 64),708 1~6.1 EY.037 146.0 12.6 t~6A76 16].7 ~~.9 1981 66~,247 119.6 l7,1l0 126.~ 17.9 1l6,40~ 1ZO.B 26.~ 1Y82 8~7,~~ 14l.6 11Z.60~ 17p.1 1~.6 ~1a.610 1~p.p 26.4 (Pi~nnWl Sourp~ t~p El~ttronk IntluRry VNrbook units per month from ApriL This expansion of production by Japanese makers is to be attained by investing 419'0 of their sales. Shown in Table 1 are the trends of IC sales, research and deyelopment, and invest- ment in equipment. In 1982, research and development expenses and equipment investment are expected to amount to 13.6% and 26.2�k, respectively, of sales - a total investment of 29.8%. This fact shows that the IC industry is really investment�oriented. It is feared that theae active investments might result in intensified competition and excessive equipment. With demand for 64K RAM's at the end of this year expected to exceed supply, the market is still expanding. Japanese makers have enjoyed development benefits in the new 64K RAM market. So long as the 16K ItAM market in the U.S. has not diminished, Japanese makers are not infringing on the acquired market. It may be said that Japanese makers have established a basis for existence by obtaining a greater shaze of the expand- ing market. Here is the essence of the friction in the Japan- U.S. semiconductor war. When the market stops expanding, some makers may not be able to afford ~ch a high rate of investment. This is reflected in the small number of enterprises, which have gone into production of 65K RAM's, compared with 16K RAM makers the worldover. Under these circumstances, the industry was shocked when Hitachi announced on Decxmber. 17 of last year that it would begin mass�production of 256K RAM's from the autumn of 1982. Now both Japanese and American makers will have to go all out in investing in production of 256K RAM's despite the fact they have not recovered their 64K RAM investment. W}ule the appearance of 256K ItAM's will intensify the friction between Japanese and U.S. semiconductor makers, but uxrs will benefit by the acceleration of technological developments in the electronics field. COPY RIGHT : 19 82 Fu j i Marketinq Rese arch Co. , Ltd. CSO: 4120/217 108 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ~ ARDUOUS EFFORTS MADE TO COI~LETE COIrflrItTNICATIONS AGREEMENT Tokyo NIIiON KEIZAI SflII~UN in Japanese 15 Mar 82 p 9 [Text] Waiting for "Voice of God?" In connection with the work of drawing up the draft of a Public � Tele-Communications Law revision bill for the purpose of liberalizing data communications, the Postal Services Ministry and MITI are continuing efforts to search for a compromise plan. With regard to the Postal Services Ministry's original schedule for submitting the draft to the Cabinet meeting on the 12th, time was earned to the extent of about one week, due to the request for the postpanement of the submitting thereof to the Cabinet Secretariat. However, there is also no possibility th at the talks between the administrative officials concerned of the two Ministries will develop beyond this, on a large scale. ltierefore, it seems that the two Ministries will come to make final settlement efforts, while waiting for the "voice of God" from the LDP. Private users are watch~ng ' the situation, from the stand that if the situation is not settled, - it may result in injuring the LDP, too. The administrative officials concerned of ~he Postal Services Ministry and MITI seem to have half given up their respective hopes, but ~ they have been continuing a series of talks, in order to seize an o,:.port unity to settle the situation, somehow or other. The reason for this is probably that if the proposed revision itself of the Public Tele-Communications Law is upset completely, and if the main cause is regarded as resting with the two Ministrfes, then they will become targets of public impeachment. MITI has so far been uph~olding the stand that it cannot, accept the Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill general outline, submitted by the Postal Services Ministry to the LDP Couanunications Department on Feb. 24, As for the reasons, MITI has listed the following points: (1) The Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's recommendation should be respected; and (2) ~n order to relieve medium and small znterprises and other enterprises, which cannot afford to have their own computers, and which will be placed in a disadvantageous position, when comoared with the ioint use of circuits by big enterprises, the liberalization 109 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 FOI~ OFFICLAL US~ ONLY � of the use of circuits by the persons concerned or the joint use thereof, including message exchange, should be carried out. MITI also says tf~t con~erning these requests, t:~e Public Tele-Communications Law need no~ n~c~ssarily be revised, and that there will be no objection to the realizing thereof on tha basis of a Ministry ordinance or regulations. Kev Is Preservation of Secrets On the other hand, the Postal Servi.ces Ministry maintains that it cannot regard message exchange, which is telegraph- or telephone-like service, as information-processing Cservice], set forth in the expanded interpretation by MITI. Furthermore, it has made no concessions, from the :tand that in regard to telegraph- or telephone-like services, the preservation of communications secrets is absolutely necessary, and that a set-up should re es�tablished under which the Postal Services Minister can check them, in some form or other. It is LDP Communications Departmenti Chief MORI's tentative plan whicr~ appaared under such circumstances. The main contents thereof ~�m to 1~~ a~ follows: (1) A new bill for the purpose of a high-level communications servi.ces system, the submitting of which bill to the - curretit Diet session has already been given up by the Postal Services Mini~try, will be submitt~d to the next regular Diet session after the n~.:u � nry preconditions, including the preservation of communications secret::, are improved; MITI will co-~perate in the submittiny* of the new bill; and (3) it will not be good if inedium and small enterprises .~r~~ ~L,i~ ~cl in a disadvanta~~~ou~ ~+o~ ition, compared with big enterpri:;es; therefore, as "stop-gap" steps to be taken until the Diet passage of the new bill, measures will be taken to preserve communications secrets, while on the other hand, permission will be granted for message exchanqe und~r the use-by-others system, within a certain fixed scope (wider under the present draft), through confirmation by the Postal Services Minister. The Postal Services Ministry is said to have decided to "concede on" (accept) the MORI tentative plan. However, MITI has ~till not accepted the proposed [system for] "confirmation by the Postal Services Minister." The talks between the administrative officials concerned are deadlocked. ~ Under this situation, however, the LDP, which has mediated betkeen *_he two Ministries, will eventually have its ability to govern as the responsible party questioned. That is why Policy Board Chairman TANAKA pr~sented a request, asking, "Is it impossib le to have the MORI tentative plan contain contents which are slig,htly more acceptable to MITI?" So far, it is not known w}~at is meant by the plan which MITI can accept. However, the Postal Services Ministry is determined to uphold the proposed [sy~tem for] "confirmation by the Minister," to the last. The problematical poic~t~ can be said to have become clear, between the Ministry and MITI which is planning to prevent the arising of such a situation. 11U FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 ~ Even if the two Ministries reach a compromise, the incorporation thereof in the Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill will not be realized in time for the submitting of the bill to the Cabinet meeting, slated for the 19th, because it is necessary for each Ministry to conduct checks, once again. Therefore, it will come about that the remaining point of compromise will be to revise the Ministry Ordinance or Regulations. In regard to the problem of whether it will be possible for the two Plinistries to reach a compromise, within the next two or three days, the proposed liberalization of data communications has entered the stage where it will be settled at the last moment. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982 CSO: 4106/94 111 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 vn vr r r~.~ha, voa, vl~ i. I SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REVISION OF POSTAL SERVICES AGREEMENT REp,CHED Circuit Use for 'Others' Approved Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIl~UN in Japaneae 16 Mar 82 p 3 [Text] . - - - _ _ _ _ The Postal Services Ministry and MITI on the 15th reached agreement on a Public Tele-Communications Law revision bi].1 calling for the liberalization of data communications circuits, [the work of drawing up the draft of which bill] had been having hard sailing. The two Ministries acceuted the "judgment," formed by LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA who has been making co-ordi:iation efforts. In regard to high-level communications services, which were regarded as a focal point, the contents of the judgment are as follows: (1) Under certain conditions, "others' use" of circuits, which use will be accompanied by the use of telephone- like services, will be approved only as to medium and small enterpri:,es which have close business connections; (2) this will be a provisional tentative step to be taken until a decision is reached on the way of th~ u~C of circuits as a whole; and (3) as regards the overall liberalization of high-level communications services, the Government will formulate a conclusion quickly. As a result, the ampndfng of the revision bill, as called for by MITI, will be given up, but in line with the purport of the judgment, the Postal Services Ministry will revise its Ordinance, so as to pave the way toward use by medium and small enterprises. However, in regard to the contents of the "certain conditions" which are all-important, [the judgment] calls for postponing the reaching of a conclusion. The problem has thus come to an "iridescent end." Due to the agreement reached between the two Ministries, the revision bill will be incorporated in the a~ministrative business simplification and rationalization bill (package bill calling for readjustment of items which require approval or permission) which the Administrative Management Agency is preparing now. The Cabinet, at a meeting, slated for the 19th, is scheduled to decide to submit [the revision bill] to the current Diet session. In regard to data comaaunications, information will be processed through the direct connection of computers and eommunications functions, as in tl?e case of tY~e National Railways' Green (TN: First Class Ticket) 112 . FOR OFFICIAL USE ~NLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 Windows and the banks' on-line systems. They are said to be the third communications, after telegraph and the telephone. Under the Public Tele~Communications Law now in ~orce, a net of vari.ous restrictions is put up over the use of such data cotmnunications services by private circles. Therefore, the removal of these restrictions or revision of the Law has been sought since several years ago. With regard to the demand for liberalization, centering on industrial circles, the Postal Services Ministry had originally planned to cope with it through revision of the existing Law and also through the ena~tment of a new law (data communications law) which will permit private circles also to offer high-level comQnunications services in which network communicat ions services will be extended, with the values of information enhanced through the processing thereof with the use of computers. But the new bill contained such contents as to eall for the establishment of a new approval or permission system. Therefore, MITI, which has demanded overall liberal.ization, showed repulsion. T'he enacting of a new law was thus given up, and negotiations were continued on the revising of the remaining Law now in force. However, in regard to the revising of the Law, MITI, which sought tl~~ 1 it~~:~~al ization of high-level communications services, called for ~~pproving "others' use" of data circuits, which are now placed under strict r~u:;ct~i~c ion:., s:: iri thc: c~::c: of thc use of telephone services, a:: a m~a~ure toward medium and small enterprises which cannot have their own cor~~~uttr5. Tt~u~, it to~k tt~t st~snd of securing the virtual liberalization of high-level communications services. On the other hand, the Postal Services Ministry em~ha~ized that partly from the stand~oint of comTminications secrets, it cannot approve the large-scale liberalization of "use by others" only through revision of the Law now in force. [The ~~roblem] thus h~d hard sailing. In the end, it was decided that the r~evision b ill will not include that part, due to the TANAKA judgment. It was also decided that the form of approving it as an exception will be taken, in accordance with a Ministry ordinance. Under the revision bi11, moreover, the "joint use" of communications circuits by two or more companies will be liberalized in principle, if th~y are to be used between enterprises which have business connections with each other. Message exchange, in which telephone-like services will be used, will also be approved if it is to be carried out between enterpri~es which have close business connections with each other. It will thus become possible to est ablish new comQnunications systems, for example., between manufacturing industrialists and retailers, between tourism enterprisers and hotel-keepers, and between tra:zsportation enterprisers at~d warehousing enterprisers. Moreover, concerning the connection of public communications circuits, specific communications circuits, and public communications circuits (~~ublic-specific-public connection) which will r~ecome indispensable 113 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500054048-9 FOR OFFiC[wL USE nNLY for Frivate information and communications enterprisers to offer information- processing networks, it will become an object for the applica:ion of an individual approval system, on the grounds that there is fear uf its cau:~ing tl?e utilization of services similar to telegrapn and telephone :.arvices ~rhich are the regular services of the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NTT). It was also deeided that the connection of public communications circuits with specific communications circuits (public-specific connection) will not be approved, either, in the case of carrying out message exchange. As regards the liberalization of data conaaunications, the Second Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council (Chairman: Tosnio DOKO), in its recommendation concerning the readjustment or rationalization of tasks which require approval or permission, also says as follows: "State re- strictions should be eliminated, as far as possible, and efforts should be made to use the originality and ingenuity of private circles to the maximum." Moreover, the recoimnendation says as follows: (1) Liberalization should be carried out, with the exception of the system for carrying out message exchange (use of telephone-like services), with an unspecified large number of persons as the objects; (2) in order to clarify the minimum necessary scope of restrictions, a negative-list formula should ~ be adopted; and (3) in regard to mutual connection using computer circuits, the standards for granting separate approval should be clarified in case the granting of such approval is necessary. Under the revision bill, however, high-level communications services will be approved only toward medium and small enterprise~ alone. Moreover, the bill will be submitted to the Diet, with the conditions also left unclarified. The "TANAKA judgment" calls for the quick reaching of a conclusion on the overall liberalization of high-level communications services. It can also be said, however, that the problem has been settled in the form of retreating to a considerable extent from the purport of the Research Council's interim recommendation. Gist of Po~icy Board Chazrman TANAKA's Jud~nent 1. Measures should be taken to approve the transmission of communications by others under certain fixed conditions, limiting it only to communications to be used for medium and small enterprisers who have close business connections. (1) Procedures should be established on the basis of the spirit of admini�;trative reform. . (2) The scope of communications should be studied through co-ordination with NTT. ~ 114 . ~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040500054048-9 (3) This step should be regarded as a proviaional, tentative step to be taken until a conclusion is reached on the new way o~ the whole utilization of circuits for use by othere. 2. In order to materialize the above-mentioned measures, co-operation should be obtained among the Administrative Management Agency, the Postal Services Ministry, and MITI. 3. In connection with the way of the overall liberalization of the utilization of circ~its for use by others, I want the Government to make efforts to reach a conclusion quickly. In that case, MITI should make a response with sincerity, when the Postal Services Ministry takes necessary and rational legal measures. _ - The Postal Services Ministry and 1~ITI liave agreed on the liberalization ~ of data communications. This has made it possible for medium and small enterprisers alone to use high-level communications services, though with conditions attached to it. In,this connection, however, it is insufficient for the medium and sm311 enterprisers to have mere business connections with each other. For example, [the establishment of] certain fixed capital relations between the two sides will become necessary. In concrete terms, it�wil'1 become possible for medium and small enterprises, which have such close connections with each other, for example, to transmit immediately to the other medium and small enterprises information as to inventory control., the .issuance of orders, and the transpor*tation of manufactured products through the use of networks established by private information.and conununications enterprisers. Howev~r, with regard to the concrete contents of such operation and the scope of communications, the "TANAKA judgment" also says that "studies st~ould be conducted through co-ordination with NTT." Thus, the problem seems to h ave been left to future negotiations for revision of the Postal Services Ministry and MITI ordinances. ~ However, in regard to the agreement.between the two Ministries this time, medium and small enterprisea, which do not have capital relations with each other, will virtually not be permitted to use high-level communications services. It has been decided t~at it will be left to the work of revising the Law next year or after. In that meaning, the use of data comniunications circuits may be said to have been placed ur~der a"limited liberalization" Csystem], in�'regard to the revising,;of the Law this time. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982 115 - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Liberalized Data Communications Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 19 Mar 1982 p 11 [~ext] . _ _ - - . _ _ _ Three Government offices, that is, the Postal Services Ministry, MITI, and the Administrative Management Agency conducted consultations with LDP Administrative and Financial Affairs Research Council Chairman Ryutaro HASHIMOTO on the 18th, in order to decide on detailed points as to the liberalization of data communications. As a result, agreement was reached to decide on the general outline of the contents of a revision of the Postal Services Ministry Ordinance for the purpose of ~arrying out the proposed liberalization, by the 19th when a Public Telc:-Communications Law revision bill is expected to be decided at a Cabinet meeting. Moreover, agreement was reached on the following ~oints in the form of Chairman HASHIMOTO's arbitration award: (1) In ~eciding on the detailed points, the Postal Services Ministry should sufficiently accept the views of MITI and the Administrative Management Agency and decide on the concrete contents quickly; and (2) a new law concerning the use of communications circuits by others should be studied at the new Tele-Communications Deliberation Council to be set up within the Postal ~ervices Ministry. As regards the framework of the Public Tele-Communications Law revi~ion bill, Policy Board Chairman TANAKA submitted his judgment, and generally put an end to the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation. But th~ phraseology was not clear; therefore, it was hoped that co-ordination would be carried out between the two Ministries,,in conn~,ction with the contents of the revision of the Postal Service~ Mini~try Ordinance, accompanying the revising of the Law. On the same ~i~y, o~oreover, MITI revealed that [the problem of] measures for tt~e prevention of computer crimes will be left to deliberations at the Industrial Structure Deliberation Council Information Industry Department. '1't~e gist of the HASHIMOTO arbitration award is as follows: 1. In regard to others' use of [data circuits] for use by medium and small enterprisers who have close business connections, (1) Co-ordination with the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NTT) on the scope of communications should be hastened, ar~d a cunclusion should be obtained by the time Diet deliberations start, (2) In order to approve the transmission of communications by others, the minimum necessary procedures should be established, while ~:on::ideration should be given to maintaining communications order on t}~e basis of the spirit of the proposed administrative reform this time, (3) Omitted (TN: Omitted by the newspaper, not by the translator), 116 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 - - - - (4) Concerning the overall way of circuits for use by others, e2lurt:, sliould be m~ide to reach a conclusion, as early as possible, and the, .3Love-mentioned provisional measures should be re-viewed completely at thc sta~e wr~ere a conclusion will be reached. 2. In connection with the forms of joint use and use by others in the Public Tele-Communications Law revision [bill], (1) With regard to the forms of joint use and use by others and thc~ furms of the connection between computers and of the connection of public circuits and specific circuits, efforts should be made, so tt~at the free use of circuits can be secured if it is for data-processing purposes, as iTi the case of inessage exchange through the use of half-way computers or tcrminal communications which will be accompanied by data processing, (2) The public-specific-public connection should be approved under an individual approval system, if it is for data-processing purposes, and as to the forms to be approved, efforts should be made to make them known t}~rough the adoption of contents and formulas, Which are as easy to understand as possible, (3) As regards the above-mentioned detailed points, the Postal Services Ministry should continue sufficient discussions and co-ordination with the Administrative Management Agency and MITI, COPYRIGHT: Nihon Kogyo Shimbuneha Tokyo Honsha 1982 CSO: 4106/94 117 , FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 r t~a ~r r n.t~+a. v~a Ut~ L t SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BACKGROUND OF COMMUNICATIONS AGREEMENT New Uses of Circuits Tokyo NiHON KETZAI SHII~IBUN in Japanese 17 Mar 82 p 3 [Text] ~ ~ - - _ - - - _ _ It has been decided that the Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill calling for the liberalization of data communications will be finally submitted to the Diet after being decided at a Cabinet meeting, slated for the 19th. When compared with the Law now in force, the revision bill approves large-scale liberal~zation as to the "joint use" of data circuits by enterprise groups. However, in regard to "use by others" which will open the way for the use of high-level communications services by private circles, it does not call for the overall removal of the :~trict t~~striction framework. It seems that discussions on the liberalization of circuits, which discussions have been left out, will b~c:ome a focal point also during Diet deliberations. This paper probed into the tasks left behind toward the use of circuits, the way for which use will be opened through revi:sion of the Law, for the first time, and also toward the complete lioeralization thereof. "Group" Restrictions Eased Restrictions on the joint use of specific communications circuits by enterprise groups will be removed on a large scale, due to the revision bill this time. Under the Law now in force, enterprise relations, in which joint use will be permitted, will be limited to the "considerable business connections," prescribed by the Postal Ser.v.ices Ministry Ordinance, including connections, for example, (1) between manufacturing industrialists and sales companies, (2) between manufacturing industr~.alists have close transaction connections with each other; (3) between banks, and (4) between aviation companies and tourism companies. In other c;ises, [such joint use] will not be approved, even if there are close connc~cti~ns, from the standpoint of capital alignment or physical ~iistribution. It is necessary to wait for the Posta"1 Services Minister to gr~nt individual approval. Also, in regard to the standards provided for in the Ministry Ordinance, approval will be granted in the case of [joint use] between manufacturing 118 FOIt OFFICIAL USE ONL~I APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFF[C[AL USE ONLY industrialists and sales companies, and appnoval will not be prantrd in tt,e ca~e of [joint use] between manufacturing industrialists and warehuu:~e companies,which keep their products in custody, or between those industrialists and transportation companies, which transport their products, no matter what close transaction connections the manufacturing industrialists and the companies may have with each other. Such an imbalan ce was pointed out. Under the revision bill, these points will be corrected, and [joint use] by enterprises, which have been continuing transactions with each other, will be liberalized in the case of its being accompanied by data processing, irrespective of the type of enterprise. For example, Automobile Sales Company A is showing good busi~ess results, and stockpiles at its branch offices become insufficient. Under the present system, in that case, Company A knows about the fact through the use of specific circuits between its Head Office and the branch offices, and asks Transportation Company B for transportation from its plant, and not through the use of such circuits. However, under the re~ision [bill] this time, Company A can have specific circuits for joint use also with Company B, and an accurate transportation control system will come to be carried out. In that case, moreover, message exchange, in which the circuits will be used in the same way as in the case of telegraph or the telephone, will be approved, if the two sides have "close business connections" with each other, as can be seen, for example, in the following points: (1) One of them holds more than 10$ of the other party's capital, (2) the amount of transactions is eq,ual to over 20$ of the tot al amount, ~nd (3) they have business tie-iip relations with each other. Warehouse C~mpany B(TN: sic) can transmi�t order slips to the branch officies. Tt~is means the granting of approval for message exchange which "i;: banned in principle." Doubts About Effects of Estab lishment of Special Exceptions _ _ - _ _ It is "use by others" which means that specific circuits, leased ?-,y information-pr~cessing companies, etc., from the Nippon Telegraph and 'falephone Public Corporation (NTT) or the Kokusai�Denshin Denwa (Telegraph and Telephone) Company (KDD), will be offered for data communications between or among a plural number of customers. Under the Law now in force, a~roduction, sales, and inventory control system can be established ~nly with regard to manufacturing companies and sales companies and other customers who t?ave business connections. Under the revision bill, however, othc:r companies, which have transaction connections, can be incorporated ir~ such a system. With this, it will become possible to establish a pt~y~ical distribution cycle of manufacturing, warehousing, transportation, ~aholesale, and retail, with an information-processing company (computer center), which has its own computers, as the nucleus, as far as use by others is concerned. - In the case of use by others, hawever, message exchange will be banned in principle. The judgment, given by LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA 119 _ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FnR OF~ICIAL USF ON[.Y on the 15th, also only approves the establishment of an exception, :~~=,ying as follows: "Under certain fixed conditions, approval shquld b~~ granted, limiting it to medium and small enterprises whicn have close business connections." This step has been incorporated a~ a measure to relieve medium and small enterprises which cannot secure the separate o~~ ;-~ir~t use of data circuits. Iiowever, doubts are already being expressed al,out the actual effects of the establishment of such special exceptions. "If as 'close connections' as in the case of big enterprises ~r: ~o be sought of inedium and small enterprises, i~t will rather bind the special n;,ture of the medium and small enterprises which tend to exercise th~~ ~ r originality and ingenuity. This will become a problem, from the standpoint of forming a flexible industrial organization" (Policy Concept Forum Standing Sponsor Hajime HIROTA). From the standpoint of users, the following view was expressed: "The scope of inedium and small enterprises is not clear. Communications are not connected with the problem of whether the amount of c~ipit3l is large or small. Both joint use and use by others are a transformation of separate use. No differentiation should be made in repard to liberalization" (Tele-Communications Users Consultative Council Chief of Secretariat Mikito KONO). In this connection, the Postal Services Ministry rebutted as follow::: "In regard to the revising of the Law, it is impossible to remove restrictions b~~yon~l this, in order to preserve communications secrets." It also ~xplai;~ed that due to the establishment of such a special exception, the e~;tending of mail-box service, one of the high-level communications :~ervices, will become possible, thus opening a way for the future. ~ 'C?iis is mail-like service in which periodic business-letters will be sent simultaneously to various customers. However, if strict conditions ~,~re imposed, then rather big gaps will probably arise between the pos~ibility of "~hould be possible" and its becoming connected with implementation. Establishment of Public Circuits Network Will Become Possible _ hloreover, in regard to the mutual connection of public communications circuits and specific circuits, which connection was strongly requested by big companies which have branch offices and operation offices on a nation-wide scale, the "public-specific" connection will be liberalized under c:ertain fixed standards, though it is now under a separate appmval system. Th~ "public-specific-public" connection will be shifted to the separate apE~roval sy~tem,thougti it is banned. Consequently, in the case of big ~,.~m~~~ni~s which have their own respective computers installed at their 1~~�ac] offices in Tokyo and also at their branch offices in Osaka, it will t-~~~~om~ pc>:;s ible to connect specific circuits , which will become "arteries betw~:~:u tl~e computers in Tokyo and Osaka and to establish public circuits nFtwor~k~, wl~ich are equivalent to "capillaries," between each computer and c;~e operation or branch offices. Also, in that case, however, overall 1 ih~,r,,-~1 iz.3tion will not be carried out, and the "public-specific-publi~" cor,c~ectiu~~ will be placed under the Postal Services Ministry's surveil]ance. M~ :...,~~;r exchritige will al:,o 1>e left banned. 120 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 w N N � ~ a~c; a:~~ai ~o~ ro~ ~sro. v c~ v v a c~ a~ .c b - .ra ~ ro d s~ .4 ~ ro .ra ~ ~ ~n a~ .c x ~ ~ A+~ .c a 4, o~ a�~+ .a x~ ~n a~ a . '-1 fn A f0 r-1 U N~ N �rl ~ r~i 4-~ ~ N ro W U w W U~N ro ~-I V1 M N'~ ~ 4-1 A R VI .c v~ a b .c ro~"~u a~~ o b o~ �u b v~ ~ a~ a a~ a~ o ~n a o ro v, a a~ t~ ~ ro ~ > o w x c~ v~ ~ a rtf u+~ ~ m++ ro��~ 3�~ m v, a, a, a+~ a~ c+ a, t~ ~ G ~ N 4-~ N R ~ 7 A ~ ~0 ~ ~ rl ~U O�.I U ~ O d U ^ ~ t~ E N A v ~ G �rl O~ N A~~--I �r1 rl 00 O~ U 0 o+~ u a ~ a.~ a ~ v~ v, u~+ a u".~ ~ a, ro ro ~ w w�.+ o a~ a, ~ a, ~~o v) ~.-I ~ O bD .C ��~1 O d 3 N U b0 4i N G! 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A+ ~ A N 4~ G b N�~ � ~ A I I O N R a ~ u 'b c~ ~n O 3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ a~ a o0 0 0 0 ~ b ~ o a, ~ - a u ~ u ~ ~ v .-1 A tn ~ ~ 3 rt1 r-I tn b rC L~ �~-t m t0 ro t, a u ro m v, e ~ r+ a a bo a~ . v ~c ~ a~ t~ v~ a no .q ~ ~ v, o uo 00 ua~'', a j~ ~'Cf t+ R p 4i .4i ~N? ~ ~ A�~~-I ~ U C~0 U' a~~ a b0 U~ U'Li v t~ '-i ~ G~ t0 'd W U b ~F ro 4: ~ ~ L~, N ~ ~ m ,C R ~ ~ O~O � ~ a. ,c b a~ u o ro ro ro v '~3c ~o a~i ~u ~ .,i tn f~ G G X U v~ 'd � A ��-I ~C ~'~7 N A b�.~ ~ uf N N O vl A v a~ a ~ �-i 'U v1 v f~ f~ N �rl ~�r~ u) ~ v1 N R1 U ^'.7 0J Gl f/) C~ ~ �/1 {J 'r~ f/I Ql U'C~ ~ V A a. >mv,.a tw> a~v ~~a ~a~n �a ~u~ i~ ~~a~i.a~ u~i~ >,~a ~~.A. vi a~�~ > v~ Gi. v r1 cn ~ A tn b v? rtf �~ui.~ Ero o~aro ~uu� c.�~c�~�~ ~ aav~'i ~a~ ti a ~ v ~ . ~ ~ o ~ U O ~ � ~ 0 ~ h 121 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500050048-9 CVA Vl'l'll.1HL UJT, VlrL.1 It is certain that this marks one step forward, when compared with the Law now in force. However, in regard to the way toward high-level communication:. services which are all-important, "limited" liberalization will be carried out. Therefore, the possibility is strong that its eff~cts on informationized society will only be "limiTed," too. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982 Teat for Efficiency Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 18 Mar 82 p 3 [Text] _ _ - There is no other example which was more difficult to understand than ~the contents of the Postal Services Miriistry-MITI confrontation this time as to a public Tele-Communications Law revision bill. That is because technical terms, which are unfamiliar to the general public, were used, and also because intangible "things," such as computers, com�nunications, or information, were dealt with. But it is too hasty to try to settle the confrontation between the two Ministries, regarding it as a mere struggle over jurisdiction, between Government offices. When tracing back to the original starting point of the confrontation, we will come into collision with two options as to whether information-processing services, which will appear, one after another, due to the progress of technology, "should be developed, being left to the free originality a~id iiigenuity of private circles," or whether they "should be restricted, with importance attached to their public utility." Charter Flights for Information In order to make the problem easy to understand, let us replac~ communications circuits by roads. It was the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NTT) which had so far constructed roads called public circuits (telephone lines) or specific circuits, while fulfilling the role of a transportation enterprise for transporting frf~ight called information. It is the Public Tele-Communications Law the Postal Services Ministry which exercise control over the contents of such roads and transportation. However, computers and other types of low-priced electronic equipment and apparatuses appeared. It is good to consider this equipment and apparatuses to be machinery and appliances for processing, treating in advance, and packing freight (information) to be transported along roads called circuits, so that it can be used as soon as it arrives. 1'hat is why data communications, which connect computers and circuits, are called "added-value communications services," though the telepho~ie and telegraph transmit information as is, without processing the contents thereof. 122 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040500054048-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . _ _ - _ _ Therefore, enterprises and information-processing services enterprisers, who have computers, that is, machines for packing and processing information, came to lease circuits from NTT, in order to promote the efficiency of their transportation services. This is a so-called r charter flight for the transmission of information. In this connection, the "joint use," which has become a problem in regard to the revision bill this time~ means a charter flight or an exclusive road to be used jointly by a plural number of enterprises, such as food companies and refrigerator companies. The revision [bill] ~ this time calls for carrying out liberalization to such a considerable extent that various kinds of information can be transmitted through the use of the circuits. On the cther hand, "use by others" refers to the form of the use of circuits, centering on the information-processing services enterprises, and it can be likened to local transportation business. It is business in whic:h inf~rmation as to an unspecified large number of persons will ~e transmitted through the use of circuits leased from NTT. When compared witt~ the joint-use [formula], strict restrictions are still imposed on the method of packing the freight to be transported and the destinations th~rr:of. ~ Procedures for the Future Irisdescent HITI, which wants to promote the development of the information industry, centering on computers and software, would like to develop r~ew services and demand through liberalization of the use of circuits. On the other hand, the Postal Services Ministry is taking the stand that communications services are strongly of a public-utility nature, and tt;at even in order to preserve communications secrets, it is impossible to ease restrictions. This was the basic point of the Postal Services � htinistry-MITI confrontation this time. In the end, with regard to LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA's judgment this time, the Postal Services Ministry only approved liberalization to the minimum extent which is conceivable. As to through what procedures t~e remaining liberalization problem should be settled from now, it was only decided that "the Postal Services Ministry, MITI, and the Administrative Management Agency will co-operate with one another." Thus, an "iridescent settlement" was reached, without showing any concrete direction. What is tt~e liberalization of what remains? It means a field which is called high-level communicatfons services. The focal po'.~:t is whether exchange between the data communications systems of different enterprises will become possible through the establishment of networks which will con~ect a plural number of computers to the communications circuits of NTT. As for computers, thQ words to be used will differ, according to the manufacturer or the age when they are produced. In order to coni~ect them, it is necessary to go through a computer which is 123 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 rva~ vrraa.ina. v.ra. J1tL� equivalent to an "interpreter." If high-level communications services are liberalized completely, it will pave the way toward establishing new information-processing services business which will regard it as its task to act as such interpreters. The reason for this is that as a result of ttie free use of thc charter flight of circuits, it will become possible to estdblish a new line of business in which information of Company A will be interpreted and transmitted to Company B. In that case, it will become unnecessary for various enterprises to have overlapped data. This will also have many points of advantage, from the standpoint of the national economy. No Con~lusion Will Be Reached until after One Year? In the US, such restrictions have already been eased. Also, in Japan, the Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council has clarified its direction, to the effect that liberalization should be carried out, as far as possible. In Japan, however, the problem of liberalizing such a field has been left to future co-ordination between the Postal Services Ministry and MITI which are still in a deeply-rooted confrontation. So far, a direction has not been decided as to whether high-level communications services should be restricted through the enactment of a new law (plan of the Postal Services Ministry), or whether such services should be liberalized in principle through a further revision of the Public Tele-Communications Law (plan of MITI). It is said that "a conclusion will reached at least one year hence" (MITI leader). Wtiether it will really become possible to use computers efficiently, depends on how such co-ordination will be carried out. Therefore, in order to prevent the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation from ending up in a mere struggle over jurisdiction between Government offices, "it is necessary to consider what meaning the liberalization of high-level communications services will contain, from the viewpoint of the national economy" (big information-processing services company leader). The form of treating or processing information is quickly spreading, accomnanying the rapid progress of electronic technology. In order to guide the industrial structure in the direction of concentrating knowledge, it is wiser to recognize the free originality and ingenuity of private circles and to maintain the way toward securing the appearance of low-priced ~ervices throu~h the market mechanism concerning competition. The time has come for considering the information-processing problem calmly, with the ~~:t~er,~l s~ttlement of the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation as a ~ turning point. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982 CSO: 4106/94 124 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LIBERALIZATION OF DATA C~IIJNICATIONS UNSATISFACTORY Tokyo TOKYO SSIMBUN in Japaneae 18 Mar 82 p 5 [Text] - . _ - It is good that co-ordination witTi'in t~ie Government fias been generally completed, in regard to the liberalization of data communications. But the liberalization is limited, and the contents are insufficient. The Government should m~ke further efforts to carry out overall liberalization along the line of the Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's recommendation The problem of liberalizing data communications, concerning which problem the co-ordination of views between the Postal Services Ministry and MITI has been having hard sailing, has generally come to an end, in tt~e form of a"judgment" by LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA. On this basis, a Public Tele-ComQnunications Law revision Lill is exp~cted to be submitted to the Diet after it is decided at a Cabinet meeting, slated for the 19th. The gist [of the revision bill] is as follows: (1) Under certain fixed conditions, the transmission of communications by others shall r~~ ~~~~rmitted, limiting it only to [communications] for use by medium acid smsll er~terprisers who have close business connections; and (2) hc~w~~vf~r, tt,is shall be a provisional, tentative step, and the Government shall make efforts to reach a conclusion quickly, in regard to the ov~r:il] liberalization of use by others. ~n other words, the focal point is that approval will be granted, though condi~tionally, for l~riv~,te: ~~nterl~ri:.~~s' partici~ation in the field of "high-level communications services," which have not been permitted so far, and in whi~�I~ ,~ommiini~~ation:~ by othr:rs will be transmitted throu~h the use of circuits leased from the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation (NT'C). - - - - - Anyway, this may be said to be a measure which has advanced by one st~~p, only from the viewpoint that a new way has been opened as to hi~;h-level communications service. As for the contents, however, it is limited to medium and small enterprises, and moreover, vague restrictions are imposed, such as "close business connections" and "certain fixed conditions." 125 FOR OFF'ICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 M'UK Ur'r'1l:lAL U,r. UNLY That is probably because a political compromise was pressed to be reached in the form of a judgment by the LDP, with regard to the Postal Services Ministry-MITI confrontation. However, this is really a limited liberalization. Even when viewed from the standpoint of the 8econd Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's interim recommendation, the contents cannot but be said to be extremely insufficient. Under the draft Public Tele-Communications Law revision bill, drawn up by the Postal Services Ministry, the "joint use" of communications circuits by two or more companies will be liberalized in principle, if they are to be used by enterprises which have business connections. The problem is that strict restrictions will still be maintained as to "use by others," in which private information-processing service cumpanies will let their customers use communieations circuits which they lease from NTT. This will prove markedly disadvantageous for medium and small enterprises which cannot have their own computers, when compared with big enterp^ises which will enjoy benefits, due to the liberalization of joint use, and which cannot help sub-leasing the communications circuits leased by information-processing enterprisers. That is why MITI demanded the large-scale li.beralization of "use by others," as a measure toward medium and small enterprises. It was thus in confrontation wit;~ the Postal~ Services Ministry. The urgent problem of revising the Public Tele-Communications Law tias been settled, due to Policy Board Chairman TANAKA's judgment. . How~:ver, the reaching of a conclusion only has been postponed, witki regard to the problem of how to carry out the liberalization of t~igh-level communications services, whieh problem was regarded as a very big focal point. In regard to the overall liberalization of dat a communications, it will probably be necessary to impose restrictions on the private circles' extending services similar to telephone service or to take mca:sures to preserve communications seerets. However, there are doubts as to the Postal Services Ministry's way of thinking, to the ef~fect that liberalization eannot be carried out any further unless tY~~ State holds. the power to grant approval or permission through the enactment of a new law. On that point, the LDP's written judgment says, "MITI should makE~ a response with sincerity, when the Postal Services Ministry tak~:s necessary and rational legal measures." However, new legal mc~a~;ures should be studied carefully. We want tt,e Government to carry out co-ordination from now, in ~ine with the Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's recc~mmendation calling for the adoption of a negative-list formula (fai� carrying out li.beralization in principle and also for clarifying the minimum necessary scope of restrictions). COPYRIGHT: 1982 Chu-Nichi Shimbun Tokyo Honaha 126 CSO: 4106/94 FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY . SCIENCE AND TECFIldOLOGY FREER DATA COrIl~i[JNICATIONS SEEN Tokyo SANKEI SHIMLiUN in Japaneae 18 Mar 82 p 10 [Text] The fact may be appreciated t~ia~ t~e pend ni g problem of liberalizing ~ data communications has generally come to an end, and that it has been decided that the situation will advance toward liberalization, though with conditions attached. However, high-level communications services in question have only been limitedly liberalized. In order to make data communications more fruitful in the future, it is necessary to make efforts in the direction of carrying out further liberalization. In regard to the liberalization of data cotranunications, the Postal Services Ministry and MITI were in confrontation over the problem of to what extent the scope, in which private circules can freely use circuits for data communications, should be expanded. Thus, it has been having h ard sailing. While clarifying the direction of approving the proposed liberalization, as a general principle, the Postal Services Ministry had been taking the stand that it would be necessary to carry out restrictions. That is why it seems to have come into confrontation with MI'PI which was trying to avoid the itaposition of restrictions, as far as possible. Therefore, it was irapossible to take necessary legal measures, and it was feared that a situation might occur whereby the liberalization of data communications would be delayed on a large scale. With regard to such a confrontation between the Postal Services Ministry and t�iITI, LDP Policy Board Chairman TANAKA started mediation efforts, and put an end to the problem in the form of a judgment. This may be said to have been timely, particularly because the deadline for the submitting of a bill is close at hand. According to the "TANAKA judgment," (so-called use by others), in which data communications circuits in the field of high-level communications services will be leased from private information enterprisers under certain fixed conditions, and in which they will be used, will be approved only as to medium and small enterprises which 127 . FOR OFF'ICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 rv~c, u~.: vivi.t _ _ have close business connections. Besides tfie above, it calls for making efforts to reach a conclusion quickly, with regard to overall liberalization. This is the gist [of the judgment]. At the present time, tliis is a realistic option. In that meaning, it can be said to have marked one ~tep forward. However, it probably cannot be denied that it is far from lib~~ralization in the true sense of the word. It is true that it is very distant from the liberalization of data communications, set forth in the Second Provisional Administrative Affairs Research Council's recommendation, which calls for the liberalization of data communications circuits, with the exception of inessage exchange (use of services similar to telephone services) in which an unspecified large number of persons will be regarded as the objects, and the curbing of restrictions to the minimum necessary extent if they are to be carried out. The recommendation also calls for ttie adoption of a negative-list formula and the clarification of fihe standards for granting individual approval for mutual connection. In that meaning, it will probably be necessary to develop the liberalization of data communications further, from now. The position of the step this time should be defined as a process leading to such large-scale liberalization. With this, a period must not be put to the Problem of liberalizing data communications. Under a situation whereby the unification of information and . c~,mTUUt-~ic.~t.i~n:, is being promoted further, the liberalization of dat~ communications is indispensable for establishing a high-level informationized society. It is impossible to hope for the development of the economy and society, from now, without securing the development ~f informationization. - I'rom this standpoint, it is hoped that in order to walk the road leading to "freer data communications," the Ministries and Agencies concerned will strengthen co-operative relations among tt~emselves, from a broader viewpoint, witriout sticking unnecessarily to their own positions. COPYRIGHT: Sangyo Keizai Shimbun Tokyo Honaha 1982 CSO: 4106/94 128 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000500050048-9 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PLANS FOR URANIUM ENRICI~IlrIENT PROTOTYPE PLANT FIRMED UP Division of Expenses Tokyo DENKI SHIMBUN in Japaneae 3 Feb 82 p 1 [Text] The division between government and the private sector has generally been settled for construction expensea of about 65.4 billion yen on the urani- um enrichment prototype plant (production on the order of 200 tona SWU annually) which has been under atudy by the Science and Technology Agency and th.: elec- tric power industry. Regarding the conatruction coat, in substance: 1) the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation, principally reaponsible for construction, will borrow 25 percent (about 16.5 billion yen) in the pri- vate market, with the government and the private participants ~ointly guaran- teeing the debtf and 2) of the remaining 75 percent, the private sector will provide capital of about 25 billion yen, slightly more than half. The private power companies have not yet formally made a decision, and since the Science and Technology Agency is still conaidering general queations including the problem of location, it will be some time before a final settlement is reached, but the hurdle of the division of government and private burdens has been crossed. � Details Still To Be Worked Out Regarding Power Companies, Manufacturere The uranium enrichment prototype plant ia a facility to follow the Okayama Prefecture Ningyotoge pilot plant and ia aimed at improving the technology of mass productfon by centrifugal separators, confirming its economic viability, and moving toward making it commercial. It is expected to produce about 200 tons SWU per year of enriched uranium using 20,000 centrifugal separators. The construction budgrt has been estimated at 65.4 billion yen, and the divi- sion of the cost of construction between the gover~ent and the private sector has been a problem. The Atomic Energy Commiasion and the Science and Technology Agency have considered even this prototype plant as being eventually included among commercial plants for which private power companies will be primarily respon- sible, and have argued that, in the light of budgetary problems, the private sector share of the construction expense should be anore than half. In con- ' trast, the private power companies have been inclined to resist taking more - than half of the burden, since the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development 129 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040500054048-9 ruK VrriLIAL u~c. VIVLY Corporation will be responsible for developing the prototype plant and its development will be under government direction, and have held to the view that the 10 power companies, including the Japan Atomic Power Company, should, as an appropriate degree of cooperation, assume a burden of 25 percent. In the budget for 1982 the Ministry of Finance has allotted 960 million yen for development of the prototype plant, and has thus by means of the budget established preconditions for determining the ratio of government to private support. However, since the difference between the government and private proposals was large, it was expected that it would take a long time to settle the matter. To deal with this, the idea recently emerged that the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation should borrow a portion of the construction expense in the private market and repay it from the proceeds of the sale of enriched uranium. It is considered that it would be possible to borrow 25 percent of the construction expense, some 16 billion yen, and that this could be guaranteed by the government and the private companies. Thus the issue became the division between the government and the private companies of the remaining 75 percent, about 49 billion yen, and the views of the government were accepted, with the private sector taking a burden of about 25 billion yen, some 1 billion yen more, and the government assuming 24 billion yen. Provisionally setting the private portion at 25 billion yen, the private proportion of the 65.4 billion yen conetruction expense amounts to about 38 percent, about 9 billion yen more than the 25 percent pro~osed by the power companies. Since the manufacturers of the centrifugal separators will also assume part of this, such a percentage does not seem to be something that the private companies cannot accept. On the other hand, since in this division of burdens the private sector is taking more than half, by however, small a margin, once the portion to be borrowed by the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation is put aside, while direction will continue in the hands of the government, this agreement on the division of burdens is of such a nature as to make it easy to persuade the Ministry of Finance. It is necessary to work out the details of the method of guaranteeing the loan of the Power Reactor and Nuclear Develogment Corporation, as well as the division of the private capital among the power companies and manufacturers, and a final decision has yet to be reached, but in general the proposal has become solid. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Denki Kyokai 1982 130 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00854R000500050048-9 'DENKI SHIMBUN~Editorial Tokyo DENKI SHIMBUN in Japanese 4 Feb 82 p 3 [Editorial: "Making Uranium Enrichment Japanese"] [Text] Ningyotoge on the border between Okayama and Tottori Prefectures is already piled with snow. A white building to be aeen only about 300 meters from the tea house (rest house) at the pass is the uranium enrichment pilot plant of the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation. Within the pilot plant several thousand centrifugal separators quietly revolve, making enriched uranium from natural uranium. This plant, which has been in � partial operation since 1979, was completed and all centrifugal separators installed last autumn. The enrichment of uranium requires very high technology, and since the gas diffusion process used heretofore requires great amounts of electricity, so much that it has been said that "enriched uranium is canned electricity," Japan and many other countries have relied on the United States. In Europe, Britain and France carried out enrichment by the gas diffusion method, and later, Britain, Germany, and the Netherlands developed centrifugal separators through a cooperative entity called Urenco and have progressed through a pilot plant to the construction of a proper plant and commercial operation. The requirement for electric power in the centrifugal separation method as compared to the gas diffuaion method is about one-tenth as high and it is, moreover, superior in the matter of expansion in accordance with demand. In Japan, too, in 1972 the Atomic Energy Co~ission deaignated as a national project the experimental development of uranium enrichment by the centrifugal separation method to the extent of building and operating a pilot plant, and took the first step along the path of an autonomous nuclear fuel cycle through domestic uranium enrichment. Enrichment technology comes under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and control of information is strict for all countries, which has encouraged development of autonomous national technologies. A subcommittee on Japanese uranium enrichment of the Atomic Energy Commission deliberated from the end of 1980 through August of last year and presented a report to the Atomic Energy Commission concerning means of promoting domestic uranium enrichment in this country after the pilot plant. The subco~nittee chairman was the late Inoue Goro, deputy chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, whose memorial service was ~ointly conducted by the Chubu Electric Power Company and the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation on 15 December last year, and its membersliip consisted of authorities from the government, academia, and industry. According to the conclusions of the aubcommittee, the ob3ective is to begin operation of a commercial plant between 1985 and 1990, and the uranium enrich- ment industry should be run by private enterprise. To prepare for a co~ercial 131 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/42/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 N~UR UFh'IC1A~ U~~: UNLY plant it is necessary to have a prototype plant. It is appropriate that the state lead the drive to plan the prototype plant, with the direct cooperation of private ~~nterprise. As a move toward the establishment of private commercial uranium enrichment, in the spring of last year a Uranium Enrichment Preparations Office was set up within the Federation of Electric Power Coanpanies. The Power Reactor and ~ Nuclear Development Corporation and three centrifugal separator manufacturers are presently working on plans preparatory to construction of the prototype plant. However, it is said that it is impossible to set a date for the commencement of construction of the prototype plant due to difficulty in resolving financial questions such as the allocation of construction costs. The cost of construction of the prototype plant is set at about 65 billion yen, and in the interest of early commencement it is at present considered realistic that the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation should be responsible for construction and operation, while the private sector, which will have charge of commercial p.lants, will cooperate closel;. Should the negotiations between the government and the private sector not be resolved and the construction of the prototype plant delayed or suspended, what will happen? The development of centrifugal separators and the technology of their mass production will continue, as before, centered on the Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation. However,.the manufacturers of centrifugal separators have already had a great decline in work related to uranium enrichment with the completion of production of the centrifuges used in the pilot plant; their factories and equipment are idle and their technicians are awaiting the start of the prototype plant, feeling that one day is like a thousand years. The three manufacturers, in order to gain the advantages of mass production of centrifugal separators and to achieve the capacity to compete internationally, have prepared for concentrated production for the prototype plant through establishment of a jointly owned subsidiary company, and are prepared to shift smoothly to the construction of commercial plants af terward, but if the interruption in work continues, there is the danger that these plans will be frustrated, and that the technology and human resources amassed over a long time and at considerable expenee will be dispersed. Concerning the supply and demand aspect of enrichment, there ie the view that because of subatantial delays in worldwide plans for the generation of electri- city using atomic energy, at present supply is greater than demand, and for at least 10 years ahead world supply will meet demand completely, so there is no need for urgency. Japan at preaent, with not only a long-tenn contract for enrichment services with the United States but the recent conclusion of a contract with France for an adequate amount, feels secure with guarantees, through long-term contracts, for at least the next 10 years, so there is the aspect that it is difficult to feel any urgency about domestic enrichment. 132 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 If, however, both for domeatic and foreign consumption, we do not show eome actual reaulte in domestic uranium enrichment, including ahowing prospects of making it economically viable, through construction now of something on the scale of the prototype plant, then several years hence when we may wish to construct commercial plants this may be difficult to realize. During such a period the ma,jority of technicians presently connected with enrichment would change to other fields, large enrichment plants in countries with natural uranium resources would be co~nitted to joint operations with ~ Urenco and the Americans, and also the level of enrichment technology, once seen as able to place us alongside the most advanced countries in a space of 10 years through the national project, would have again fallen greatly behind, and Japan's plans for the production of enriched uranium would co~e to naught, isn't that true? Furthermore, if we fail to skillfully take success in development following the Atomic Energy National Pro~ect to the final stage of creating an industry, then the methods of promoting the development of atomic energy and the very structure of industry will be subject to severe reflection and investigation. Attending the memorial service for Inoue Goro, chairman of the Japanese Uranium Enrichment Subco~ittee, who had strongly urged the necessity of the early construction of the prototype plant through close cooperation between govern- ment and private industry, and while praying for hie happiness in the next world, I made earnest petition that the day would soon come for the establish- ment of a new form of motive energy and the nuclear fuel cycle, which was the dying wish of this man who worked for the development of autonomous technology and the elevation of Japanese industrial capacities. COPYRIGHT: Nihon Denki Kyokai 1982 9898 ~ CSO: 4106/73 133 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 ~'V~\ V\'~IV~l1a/ \.-~r VI~~I{ SCIENCE AND TECEINOLOGY TOYOTA STRENGTHENS POSITION THROUGH STRATEGIC MERGER Tokyo BUSiNESS JAPAN in English Mar 82 pp 21-23 [Article by Shozo Hochi, Editor-in-Chief, Business JAPAN] [Text ] T OYOTA Motor Co. (TMC), also sta'te's EF-iat though both companies 1 headed by Eiji Toyoda, the will be merged on an equal basis, for world's second largest auto maker, and legal . procedures, TMC will absorb Toyota Motor Sales Co. (TMSC), the TMSC and take over the latter's main dealer for Toyota Motor headed personnel. The rates of capitalization by Shoichiro Toyoda, recently in the new company and allocation of announced at a joint press conference posts for d'irectors will be decided in Nagoya that they have signed a through discussions between the two memorandum for merger. The com- companies. Both will hold general p~nies will be merged on a fifty-fifty shareholders meetings in the middle of basis on luly 1. The name of the new this May for shareholder approval of company will be the same as the the merger. It is most likely that the current manufacturer, Toyota Motor president of the new company will be Co., Ltd., and its annual ~ sales are Shoichiro Toyoda and the chairman " expected to reach more than ~4 tril- Eiji Toyoda. lion. TMSC was established in 1950 as ~ Detailed procedures for the merger the main dealer for TMC after having have been examined and discussed by been separated from the latter in order a committee established immediatel~� to alleviate a managerial crisis at a time after the announcement of the merger. when Japan's auto industry was not The formal signing of the agreement yet fully developed. While maintaining was to be made at the end of this close connections, the two companies March. have been benefitting from the advan- As there are gaps in stock prices tages of the separation as the demand and as~ets betwan the companies, the for motor vehicles increased world- ratios_ of_ capitalization in the new wide. However, conditions affecting -co~pany are expected to amount to Japan's auto industry have changed as one for TMC against 0.8 for TMSC. auto manufacturing has reached a f~uwever, if both companies hold to stage of maturity. Furthermore, com� the principle of equality, the ratios petition among suto makers through- wilt possibly become rr~y-fifty. In out the world for the small-caz market, that case, TMC shareholders may be particularly between ]apanese auto granted gratis shares. The new TMC makers and their U.S. counterparts will also take over TMSC's current including Gen~ral b1otors IGM), have borrowings totaling as much as ~�120 intensified. The proposed merger is billion as well as such unprofitable intended to cope more readily with divisions as housing, according to the the intensilied competiti~n and to leaders of both companies including s~rengthen the company's position in President Eiji Toyoda of TMC. They the world car market as the second have thus brought to a halt speculation largest maker. concerning the establishment of a The memorandum for the merger separate sales financing company, and 134 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 scparating the unprofitable divisions of 1973. Even before that year, a large TMSC as subsidiaries. number of Japanese passenger cars TMSC was separated from 'fMC and were exported to many regions of the established as a sister company in world. However, explosive sales of 1950, as mentioned above, in order to Japanese cars did not start until oil receive joint financing from several prices were continuously hiked by oil banks to overcome the managerial producing countriea. difficulties of TMC. They have been Followed closely by Nissan Motor closely cooperating with each other Co., TMC assumes top place among and succeeded in making TMC the ' Japanete suto makers. .Based in second largest auto maker in the world Toyoda City, Aichi Prefecture, TMC is after GM. However, Shotaro Kamiya, now capitalized at ~�107 billion and honorary chairman of TMSC who was staffed with 48,757 workers. TMC the first president of the company, produced 3,220,000 cars last year with died in December 1980. Then Shoi- sales totaling ~�3,506,400 million. As chiro Toyoda, who was vice president of June 1981, its annual recurring of TMC, became president of TMSC profit amounted to ~227,500 million. last lune. At that point, many people TMC enjoys top position in both sales involved in the auto industry began and profit among all manufacturing predicting that the companies would enterprises in Japan. It boasts that it is merge after Shoichiro Toyoda had free of borrowings, and its net assets served for a while as TMSC' president. amounted to as much as ~�1,098,400 The merger was expected to materi- million at the end of last June. alize some time in 1983. However, As for Toyota Motor Sales Co., it since the Japanese auto industry has was established in April 1950. Located undergone drastic changes in recent in Nagoya, its capital amounts to months due to trade friction d+ith ~23,717 million and its staff totaled advanced industrial countries and 5,161 as of the end of last September. other international factors, and effec- TMSC's sales reached ~3,590,?00 tive measures to cope with these million with a recurring profit of serious problems were required, the ~57,800 million as of March 1981. proposed merger of the two companies The expected sales of the new TMC materialized much earlier than ex� will amount to some ~4 trillion be- pected. cause curnnt sales by TMC of auto Established in August 1937, four parts being sold to its related com- years before the outbreak of the panies will be added to the above- Pacific War and a month after Japan mentioned TMSC sales. The net assets invaded China, Toyota Motor Co. of TMSC amounted to ~273,800 _ produced 9.8b0 cars in its first year of million as of last September. operation. During more than a decade In 1969, TMC produced 1,470,000 after the establishment = including cars and assumed fifth position among aimost four years of Japan's hostilities world auto makers. In 1972, the com- with the Allied Powers - the company pany's output exceeded the 2�million produced mostly trucks. for military level. In June 1979, its aggregated use along with some passenger cars. exports since its first export shipment Although N'orld War Il terminated in in Augu~t 1957 exceeded l0 million August 1945, the company was not units. TMC's aggregated output finally ahle to start regular operations im- exceeded the 30-million mark in niediatel~ The world's car market was December 1980, assuming second duminated by U.S: made cars. There place only after GM. w;~s nu way for any )apanese car The proposed merger is a result of maker to wedge itself into the world the judgment of both companies that car market at that time. One reason the current separate setup is not strong was abvious: technical levels of enough to cope with the competition Japanese autu makers were not high for the world's small-car market. enough to compete with U.S. car General Motors is now spending as makers. much as a~~1 billion to develop small The oppurtunity for moving into cars. GM's i-~get is said to be aiming the world market came when Japanese for a 25�~ share in the world market manufacturers succeeded in producing including the market for small cars. small cars with high fuel ef~ciency, For this effort, GM is mobilizing all particularly after the first oil crisis in the strength and faciGties of its sub- 135 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400500050048-9 rvn vrr~~.~r~.. vi~a.~ Table 1. Comparison of Leading Auto Makers Toyota N~ GM TMC TMSC . Capital (~1 bil.) 100.7 23.7 84.6 171.6 (a780 miL) Sales (~1 bil.) ~ 3,506.4 3,590.2 3,016.2 12,694.0 , ($57.7 biL) ~ ~ Recurring profit ; 227.5 57.8 166.1 -167.2 (~1 biL) . (-$760 miL) Employees ; 49,000 5,000 ~''.000 746,000 Output (units) 3,220,000 - 2,584,000 4,750,000 (Note) As of June 1981 for TMC, as of March 1981 for TA4SC and Nissan, as of December for GM. sidiaries and related companies scat- a strategical view point, however, this tered throughout the world. lf GM's setup is no longer either effective or strategy is successfully developed, even efficient. While TMSC has been active Toyota will have to face extremely in promoting its internationai strategy, difficult problems. TMC has not been necessarily in Toyota's long-term strategy is agreement with all of TAfSC's pro- called "Global 10" reflecting its goal grams. For example, TMC has been to secure a 10�/o share of the world somewhat cautions in promoting its market, enough to make its base in the international strategy, such as estab- world car market firm enough to lishing loal factories in overse~� mar- survive despite GM's powerful chal- kets. ~ lenge. TMC has already established a In fact, Toyota has been ap- share of more than 896 of' the world's proached by foreign car mazkers on car output. Toyota has ao far been several occations for tieup deals, but successful through establishing a no deals have ever been successfully unique rationalized production setup cuncluded because of this cautions concentrated in only one area (Aichi attitude projected by Toyota. The Prefecture) and exporting inexpensive proposed merger, however, is but high-quality cars to :dmost every definitely intended to unify both country in the world. companies in intemational strategical In the 1980s, however, "the small operation. _ car war" will be waged on a worldwide On the domestic front, except for scale and protectionism in the auto sub-compacts, Toyota succeeded in industry is likely to develop into a increasing its domestic market share serious problem. ln fact, Japan's car by 1 point to 38.3% last year. Mean� industry has been forced to restrict its time, Nissan's share levelled off and exports to such industrially advanced remained at 29.1%. Toyota has as its regions as the United States, West target the sales of more than 2 million Germany, Britain and other European cars domestically by 1985. Toyota countries. Even developing countries believes that if this share is achieved, it are striving to establish an auto in- can hold firmly to the leadership in dustry as a key industry for their the domestic market. With the current industrailization. They are already separate setup, however, it is felt the urging that more parts produced in goal will be hard fo reach. their own countries be used in But their views have not always lapaneae-made car bodies. . been in agreement. When Nissan suc- The current separate setup of TMC cessfully created a~oom for turbo cars and TMSC is satisfactory for the and Toyo Kogyo succeeded in selling a production and overseas sales of great number of its highly popular finished automobiles. With a view to Familiar models, TMC criticizedTMSC advancing into the worid market from for its lack of effective market re- 136 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPR~VED F~R RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 scarch efforts, and TMSC complained midwest~ many industrial robots are expected to be used for the uniformity that TMC was concentrated only in of car quality and the rationalization producing cars inexpensively and over� of production. looking the need to develop new cara Along with theu moves of the to meet market requirements. It is true lapanese auto makers, major Japanese that the separate setup put a barrier to auto parts makers also have decided to - the flow of information betwan the move into the U.S. for local pro- two companies. duction. The proposed merger is definitely The location of To~�~ta's new fac- intended to overcome such problems tory in the U.S. should be a place and to establish a firm base for future where the labor situation is better than operations both at home snd abroad. in Detroit, the center of the U.S. car The table provides a comparison of industry, no far from the Northern the world s three major auto makers - gart of the U.S. where many suto parts Toyota and Nissan in Japan and GM in makers are concentrated, and should the U.S.: be along the Mississippi River because At the time of this writing, one auto parts will probably be trans- Ieeding newspaper in Japan reported ported from )apan in the beginning of that Tuyuta Mutor Co. has decided to the operation. build a passenger car assembly plant in According to an interim account the U.S. The lacation of the plant will settlement for Toyota Motor Co. for be somewhere in the midwest and the the current annual term ending this plant's yearly output will be 200,000 June, its sales have increased by 12.9% to 250,000 units. It will be completed to ~1,870,588 million~ a record high. in .1985 or 1986. The reason Toyota With its merger with TMSC nearing, has made this decision is that it feels this account settlement is a crowing trade friction will never be mitigated, g~ory for TMC as this is the final and restrictions placed on lapan's car account settlement to be made by exports will be further strengthened TMC as a single company. TMC's without hope of their being lifted, rccurring profit registered ~ 140,740 With the merger of TMC and TMSC million, up 36.8�r6 and the second nearing, Toyota seems to have tried to highest in its history Its profit showed impress the world with a strong image an increase of 16.1% to ~`66,48~ of the new-born TMS. million, the third highest ever re- As for other ]apanese auto makers, corded. For this fiscal year, sales are Honda Motor is now building an expected to register ~3,800 biUion, assembly plant for passenger cars in recurring profit ~227,500 m~lion and Ohio for completion at the end of this Profit ~�132,700 million. , year and Nissan Motor is working to During the haif-year term as men- complete a new factory for trucks in tioned above, TMC's output and Colorado. According to President Eiji domestic sales accounted for 74'_,''00 Toyoda of TMC, it intends to expand units~ up 6.9�6, while its exports ics sales in the U.S. by having a totalled 799,072, down 9.4�~. If both product~on base in that country. Major ~are combined, TMC's tota! sales parts including engiries will be trans- amounted to 1,541,272, down 2.27. ported from lapan for the time being, Its output also decreased by 2~I~ to but TMC w~l try to raise the rate cf 1.540,968 units. Despite the decreases parts to be procured in the U.S. In the in output and exports, TMC was suc- future, TMC will make the plant a cessful in increasing profits because it completely integrated factory which raised export prices and enjoyed other will also produce engines. favorable factors. TMC has been unresponsive to 7'he new Toyuta Afotor Co. will be frequent approaches from UAW (The accommodated in a new buildinF United Auto Workers Union) and currently under construction near the groups related to the U.S. Congress for Korakuen Baseball stadium in Tokyo. establishing plants in the U.S. In ad- The construction was started in dition, though TMC was continuing February 1980 on a site of some 7,900 neRotiations with Ford Motor Co, for square meters at a total cost of some joint production in the U.S., no ~~g billion. The building with five fruitful results have been seen. The basement floors and 19 floors ahove � nrgotiations ha~~e been frozen since ground will soon be completed, to last year. serve as the neW Tokyo otfice for tl~e In the new plant to he built in the merged company. p COPYRIGHT: The Nihon Kogyo Shitnbun 1982 ~ 137 Cso: 4120/216 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2407/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500450048-9 MUIi VrMII:IAL UJ~ UNLY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY MOONLIGHT PROJECT SUCCEEDS IN RECYCLING ENERGY RESEARCH Tokyo BUSINESS JAPAN in Enqlish Mar 82 pp 89-93 [Article by Takehiko Shimura, Technical Official, Agency of Industrial Science & TechnologyJ [Text] COME 60% of Japan's energy con= raising the temperature ~~f heat energy ?J sumption is accounted for by in- contained in such warm waste water to dus~ries. However, about 5046 of the a level of 100 - 150�C, expanded industrial energy is simply dumped applications will be made possible in into the environment in the form of both our daily living and in industries. exhaust gas or warm waste water _Production_ of hot water of about withoui being fully utilized. ln Japan, gp�C and cold water of about 5�C it is an cssential task from the stand- from warm waste water will pave the pomi :~f e;onomizing energy consum~ Way for regional sir conditioning. tion to rec~wer this tremendous quan- Accordingly, research and develop~ tity~ of waste heat and to recycle it in ment of a new technical system have an effective way. been conducted to work out a com- Development of entirely new tech- pression-type heat pump system and nologies is required fur the efficient an absorption-type heat pump system. utilization of waste hcat, since existing ~e compression-type heat pump technologies are not capable of recycl- sys~em is designed to recover heat ~ ing such waste heat in an economically energy from the warm waste water feasible fashion. with a temperature of 30 - 60�C Based on this concept, research and discharged in large quantities from . development of new technical systems factories and plants and to obtain hot to utilize w~ste heat was started in water with a temperatute of 100 - fiscal 1976 ati a quasi-large�scale proj- 160�C which ia most suitable for . ect for tl~~� purpose ~~f developing rational utilization in the community. technologi~~s to recover and utilize '~'he absorption-type heat pump sys- waste heat from factories and plants tem, on the other hand, is mainly including steel mills. Alon~ with the intended for regional air conditioning. initiati~~n in fiscal 1978 of the "Moon- These two pump rystems will be de- light {'roject" which is intended to ~ribed in some detail below. devel~~p new technologies to cut ener- - - gy cunsumption in general, the former ~mpression�Typ~ Heat Pump System project was absorbed into the pro- 'T1ie objective as to develop a cum- . ~~m preaaion-type heat pump system to We wouid like to introdua in this generate hot water oo steam w ith a article some technical aspects of some temperature from 100 to 160 C uti- new heat pump s~�stems which have ~~B hest from warm waste water heen devcloped as a part of the re- a temperature of 30 - 60�C with search and development of new techni� a capacity of at least 1,000 m Ih� cal systems to utilize waste heat. T1?ermal efficiency as expressed by Steel mills discharge huge�quantities ccefficient of performance (C'OP: !he of warm waste water of comparatively ratio of generated heat to drive cn, r- lc~w temperature. If we succeed in BY) ~ould eome to over three in th~ 138 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-40850R040500054048-9 ~iagram 1. Compression�type heat pump system Utilization plan~ Screw compressot ~ Hot water tempentun (100 - 160�C) generator _ ^ i y n m ~ F ~ew cype~aporizet ~ i i~ Exhaust heat suurce ~ i ~ ~ b ~ , , _ ~ ~ , K'arm wute w�ater u ' ~~1 (30 - 60'C) i . ~ f - L_ _J case of most exacting condition, name- This haa led to the development of a ly: the production of steam with a screw compressor adopting a liquid jet temperature of 160�C. mechaniem with separate channels for In order to realize a hi~;h-perfurm- sealing and lubricating oil and for ance heat pump system confurming to freon. the above-mentioned specificatians. a New type vaporiur - In general, system has been adopted to raise warm waste water is assumed to be temperature with a compressor on the polluted and corrosive. Therefore, the low-temperature side and through the system envisions new-type vaporizing principle of exothermic absorption of equipment adopting the principle of the solution of lithium bromide (LiBr) flash vaporization of the warm waste on the high-temperature side of the water conducted to a low-preasure system (Diagram 1). chamber. The low-pressure steam Research and development were produced in this way heats from out- starled in fiscal 1976. The develop~ side and vaporizes the medium rising ment of all cumponents was finished in the vertical pipe system. Thus heat by 1979, and a pilot plant driven with is transferred from waste water to the a diesel engine was assembled from medium. these components in 1980. Running High temperaturc generator - As the tests of the pilot plant were conducted heat pump system to be developed has in 1981. The feasibility of the warm high temperature raising capacity, the waste water drive rystem and .the condenser adopts the exothermic cascade compressor was studied ~ system using a solution of lithium systems meeting the diversity of waste bromide instead of the previous simple heat sources. Basic technologies are shell and tube type. This enables tem� brief]y outlined below. perature raising of 20 - SO�C. The Screw compressor - Production of a � sacalled counterflow heat exchanger temperature of SS�C was sufficient for is applied in the absorption and con- the previous heat pump system for sir densation process in order to enhance conditioning. Temperature inside the temperature raising characteristics. compressor chamber stayed at 60 - Others - A warm waste water drive 70�C. However, the prescnt system system dispensing with an outside heat " requires the generation of a tempera- source and a flash-type high tempera- ture af about 110�C at the compressor ture generator featuring high resistanGe outlet, so that the temperature inside against pollution and corrosion have the compressor chamber rises to 110 - been developed to meet the high diver- 120�C. Hence, freon (medium) and oil siry of industrial waste heat and utiliz- are expected to decompose through ation condltions. ln addition, a com- ~ heat and mutual reaction ~n a conven- pressor-type heat pump with s cascade tional compressur of the oil-seal type. system has been perfected, featuring 139 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2047102109: CIA-RDP82-00850R400504050048-9 r~K urr~~~nL u~~ urv~t an oIl jet on the low temperaturc side Absorption-Type Heat Pump System and a liquid jet on the high tempera- The design of the Frst-type absorp~ ture side. tion heat pump called for the recovery of wasie heat of 30 - 60�C to obtain a Pilot Plant temperatun of 70 - 95�C with COP of A~pilot plant combining aU the 1.67 for the single stage type and 2.0 components was bw7t on trial to estab- for the double atage rype. lish the technologies of a heat pump The design of the second-type ab- rystems tor gaining higbh-temperature sorption heat pump system called for a water from 100� to 160 C from waste system which is operable when the . water with a temperature of 30 � 60�C. temperaturc difference between the The total energysaving type pilot cooling water and the waste heat is plant (with an output of 450,000 considerable. A COP of 0.5 wu aimed kcal/h) is ~natwentieth in size as at for single stage operation. 0.?5 for compared with an actual plant and is double stage operation and 0.75 for driven by a diesel engine (Photo 1). As high-efficiency , with a target cem- a result, ~ 1009'o thermal efficiency perature of 135~ (the r,~tio of developed heat to heat The deaign of the ice-making cycl- input of the diesel engine), corre� ing machine called for the production sponding to COP = 1, has been obtain- of ice with its large latent heat by ed for temperature generation of ineans of an absorption heat pump 160�C. (COP = 3 for the axial drive cyole. Target temperature of minus power ot the compressor) This per- 10 to minus 15 C and COP of over . formance basically corresponds to the 0.36 were envisaged, respectivel~ . original target value. lt has been eon- First-type absorption hwt pump rys- . firmed further that thermal efGciency tem - This heat pump system (Dia- reaches 170~b for 110�C temperature gram 2) followa the concept of the generaR'1,on. conventional absorption�type hot and Thus~the pilot plant has been found cold water dispenser. However, there to develop the performana originally were numerous problems to be solved aimed for in the project. In addition~ including the corrosion by lithium components such as the compressor, bromide and overall thermal balance in high temperature generator snd con- view of the higher operating tempera- denser can be uaed singly ,s a heat ture. The research consisted of repeat- pump system. Some ue already being ed construction and nmodeling of operating in this way. trial equipment with an output of ~ Diagram 2. Absorption�type heat pump system Hip,h tempcraturc gcneralion Absorption ond Gquid (Cold media condmsation) condensation Rehcated rn~a 111 ~ ! fa ~nW hai ~wra !1) Ip or (Codln~ ~ntu 1711C7) i (M~um ~r~e wta (2)) 4~ Cold ~ Absorptfon A~orpdon Uquid Air extraction fie~ ~ ~q~;d (Diludon) ~ Wum w~t~ r~ta (1) (21 6 w~ta bd~ hen~d U) (21 a � a lBrin~. etc. (C7) lCoolhq wyut (Cl) CO~d , (1) fint�type hut pnmp L . me ~a . ~ ici ~ ~a~~ �~mv - - (Fint heat pump only) Wute hwt recovering Temperature r~ising (Low temperature genentlon) (Heat abwrption) 140 � FOR OFF[CIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9 APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/49: CIA-RDP82-00850R040500050048-9 30,000 to 350,000 kcal~h. The ~bove- producing steam of 115�C from warm mentioned ori~inal target was com- watte water of 95 C and cooling water pletely attained when research and of 32�C with COP at 0.57. development were finished in 1979. Ia.~~~ ~y~g _~e This rystem is actually operating at development riarted with the search present in dyeing and olher plants for a cold medi~ and absorption liq- (Photo 2). uids which do not freeu at a tempera- - Second-type absorption heat pump ture below 0�C in order to obtain a system - Research and development brine of the aune low temperature. ~ started with the selection of sn ideal Various combizwtions wen tested with combination of cold medium and ab- trial equipment. ResearcheR finally sorption liquid. Various experimental ~~eded in producing a brine of equipment was built and remodeled in -14�C with COP at 0.38. the course of research. Water was adopted as the cold medium and lithi- qewlti of Studiss ~um bromide solution as the absotption ~n we compare the fuel con- liquid. Mathematical formulas to cal- =wnptioa of a conventional boiler culate the final temperature depending rystem with a heat pump having the on various temperatures of warm ~e performance as the pilot plant waste water and the cold medium were used for a reg~'onal wam~ing plant with worked out. After a series of prelimi- a capacity of 10 gcal/h~ it is calculated nary experiments, a pilot plan one- that the latter system can economiu twentieth of actual size was built to about 1,106 kl of fuel oil per year establish a design concept for the a~~g that hot water of 120�C is actual plant, the evaluation of heat obtained from warm waste water of conducting performana and the anal- 6p�C and that the plant operates ysis of operating characteristics. The 2,ppp hours per year. results showed that the originally in� A first�type absorption heat pump tended performana can be achieved. system with a capacity of 64,800 Hot water of 80�C was succxaafully kcal/h, which is already operating at obtained from warm waste water of present~ can save 48 kl of fuel oil per GO�C and cooling water of 1 S�C. year in cases where it is used to obtain A temperature raising system was not water of 57�C from warm waste also constructed on trial to obtain water of 35�C. hi~h�temperature water. Hot water of Thus I have introduced the outlines 90 C was succeufully produced from of heat pump systems developed under warm waste water of 50�C. In addi- the "Moonlight Project" of the Agen- tion, control methods to ensure oper- cy of lndustrial Science & Technology. ating safety and anti-crystallization As mentioned earlier, some systems steps were studied. have already reached the practical The research covered the oystem to stage and are in actual operation. They obtain hot water of rner 100 C as well are expected to disseminate steadily in as a system capable of producing the future to counter rising costs of steam. Trial equipment succeeded in energy. ; 0 COPYRIGHT: The Nihon Kogyo Shimbun 1982 CSO: 4120/215 END 141 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY APPROVED FOR RELEASE: 2007/02/09: CIA-RDP82-00850R000500050048-9