JPRS ID: 10703 JAPAN REPORT ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FORECAST FOR 1982

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• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/ 10703 ~
30 July~ 1982
Ja an Re ort
.p p
ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FORECAST~ FOR~ 1982
(FOUO 48/82)
~ FBIS FOREIC3N BROADCAST INFOR9VIATiON SERVICE
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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JPRS L/10703
30 July 1982
JAPAN REPORT
(FOUO 48/82)
ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY FORECAST FOR 14HZ
CONTENTS
SCIENCE AND TECElTiOLOGY
Electronics Industry Business Forecast for FY 82
(Shoso Watanabe; NIKKEI ELECTRONICS, 12 Apr 82) 1
Balanced, Orderly Growth
S1ow.Recovery Rate
Promising Growth Areas
Fierce Comp etition
Good Growth For Computers
Medical Equipment
Communications Equipment
Growth of Parts Industry
- a - [III - ASIA - 111 FOUO]
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
~LECTR~NICS INDUSTRY BUSINESS FORECAST FOR FY 82
Balanced, Orderly Growth
Tokyo NIKKEI ELECTRONICS in Japanese 12 Apr 82 pp 261-263
[Article by Shoso Watanabe, Assistant Editor: "Toward Orderly Growth, With
Balance Between Domestic and Foreign Demand"]
[Text] Growth in Private-Use Sector Will Stagnate, but Industrial-Use Sector
and Parts Will Undergo Double-Digit Growth
Abstract: The FY 81 performance of Japan's electronics in�
dustry showed double-digit growth as the three sectors of
private use, industrial use, and parts combined for a total
of over 10 trillion yen. Although electronics for private
use slowed on the domestic market, exports centered on VTR
were responsible for large growth. Electronics equipment
~ for industrial use has seen domestic demand account for the
major share, as has been the case in the past, but the com-
puter export-import situation has seen a turn in which ex-
ports have outrun imports, and the entire product area has
become export-oriented. As a result, Japan's electronics
industry has seen its overall expart ratio exceed 50 per-
cent, and its status as an export industry has been
strengthened considerably. The continuing recession in
the United States and Europe in FY 82 and the slow increase
in consumption are expected to cause the private-use sector
to suffer low growth. A proportionate decrease in the
growth of electronics parts for this sector may also be ex-
pected. On the other hand, both domestic and foreign de-
mand for products in the industrial sector is brisk, and
growth paralleling that of the previous year can be antici-
pated. The consequences of the trade friction with the
Western world are becoming more acute, but it seems possi-
ble that this trend will see the brakes applied during
FY 82, and Japanese products may enter U.S. and European
markets more smoothly.
As has been its custom in previous years, NIKKEI ELECTRONICS sent out ques-
tionnaires to 96 electronics equipment and parts manufacturers in 193 areas
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uii~l Uy Ctie end of February had received answers from 86 companies and 193
areas. This data, together with material obtained by the cooperative efforts
, of the industrial survey department of the Nippon Kyogo Bank, sections 1 and
Z of the NIHON KEIZAI editorial staff, and NIKKEI BUSINESS, were used to com-
pile this forecast of the Japanese electronics industry for 1982.
F3etter Than 10-iercent Growth Overall; Total Production of 12 Trillion Yen
- According to the grand total table (Table 1) compiled from these question-
naires, the total production of Japan's electronics industry in FY 82 is ex-
~?ected to show a growth of 10.8 percent over the previous year and come up
to 12 trillion yen. This will represent double-digit growth over a 4-year
i~eriod, but the items responsible for this year's growth seem somewhat dif-
Eerent from those of the past.
VTR Ends Sharp Initial-Stage Growth Period
Looking first at electronics equipment for the private sector, FY 81 saw
moderate growth, as expected, in the area of color television tape recorders,
which, together with the expansion in VTR's over the previous fiscal year,
- r.esulted in an overall growth of 18 percent. Video discs and sound equip-
ment did not perform as had been expected. In the particular area of sound
equipment, the mainstream system components began to suff er during the latter
haJ_F uf the year, and for the total year they declined to below the previous
vear's rate.
Ir is expected that moderate growth in colar television and tape recorders
will continue in FY 82 as before. On the other hand, sound equipment will be
faced not oniy with the worldwide lack of increase in individual spending
power but also with the consumers' reluctance to make purchases, what with
the advent of DAD [digital audio disc] in the United States, Europe, and Japan,
. as well as the changes in interest on the part of young people; thus there
seems to be little ctiance of recovery at least during the first half of the
year. Even assuming that DAD, which all companies expect to market starting
this fall, becomes a paying item, it does not seem possible that this market
area will register a plus.
Such being the case, FY 82 will again see VTR's serving as the prime for.ce to
pull the private-sector electronics industry through. On the other hand, VTR
production in FY 81 exceeded 10 million units, and it will be difficult to
maintain a doubling pace, as has been the case during the past few years.
Japanese manufacturers export 80 percent of their total produc.tion and are
supplying 95 percent of the world's demands, but no great increase in the
American market can be expected in FY 82, while domestic demand is expected
" to stall at about 2 million units. As a result, electronics equipment for
the private sector is expected to be at a low level of about 6.9 percer.t,
and t:otal production is expected to be 4.15 trillion yen. Its fraction of
the total market will represent a 1.3-point drop to 34.3 percent.
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Industrial-Use Electronics Expected To See Double-Digit Growth Overall
Production of electronics for industrial use is expected to be goo3 overall
in FY 82. It is estimated that computers and related equipment increased
18 percent over the previous year in FY 81, but this is expected to increase
another Z8 percent or better in FY 82, and sales will close in on 2 trillion
yen.
At the present time, there seems to be nothing in the computer area that
_ might serve as a brake on growth. It has been reported that the new general-
use large computers which the various companies announced in FY 80 and 81 are
"receiving far more orders than expected," and their production will go on-
stream in FY 82. OA-related equipment such as personal computers and Japa-
nese-language word processars are expected to see their growth period approach-
ing, and they are expected to double or triple their growth in FY 82. Exports
exceeded imports for the first time in FY 81, and this margin is expected to
increase in FY 82; total exports of all domestic industries are expected to
double. ~
Because construction tnvestment by the Telegraph and Telephone Public Corpora-
tion for FY 82 is less than the pr~~vious year's expenditures, there wi11 be
a decrease in demand in ~he government and public sector insofar as communica-
tions equipment is conc~rned. On the other hand, domestic private demand and
exports will increase, and the overall picture is expected to show roughly a
10-percent increase over the previous year. The 3emand on the part of the
Telegraph and Telephone Public Corporation has been suffering ever since the
lif:ing of the domestic telephone stockpiling program, but INS (high-level
information communication system) development f.or FY 82 will be budgeted at
240 billion yen and will finally get off the ground. There are bold plans
to convert the entire cou:~try to digital exchanges and optical transmission
. system within this century, and if this INS-related construction materializes,
there is ample possibility that the Telegraph and Telephone Public Corpora-
tion's needs will become sizable after FY 83.
Electric measurement equipment is also expected to show double-digit growth
in FY 82. Sustained by private industry's demands for facility renovation
and by ~ncreased exports, industrial equipment is predicted to expand 14 per-
cent over the previous year. In the measurement equipment area, the invest-
ment in VTR facilities is expected to hurt expansion i~n ordinary measurement
equipment, but there will be expansion in measurement equipment for aemi-
conductor-related and optic-related areas. On the other hand, chances are
dim for a big recovc~ry in electronics equipment for medical use in FY 82.
The net effect is e~tpected to be an increase of 13.2 percent over the previ-
ous year in electronics equipment for the industrial sector, for a total of
4.14 trillion yen. This sector will account for 34.2 percent of all elec-
tronics sales, which will be up 0.7 percent from the preceding year.
Growth of Electronics Equipment Parts in Private Sector To Languish
The scale os growth in production of electronics parts in FY 82 is expected
to expand 12.7 percent over the previous year to 3.8 trillion yen. Its share
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ot the total electronics market will be 34.2 percent, up 0.6 percent from
last year.
L'lectronics parts expanded over the entire front during FY 81, to 20 percent
over the preceding year, for a total of 3.37 trill:Lon yen. The main factora
responsible for this large increase were increased production in VTR and OA-
related equipment and the increased demand for parts in multicomponent areas.
The growth rate in VTR is expected to decrease in FY 82, while the inactivity
in sound equi~ment is expected to continue for a while, with the result that
growth in demand for general private-use electronic parts will probably suf-
fer. On the other hand, the area of general parts for electronics equipment
for industrial use is expected to maintain its high rate of growth ever. after
FY 82. In the overall area of parts, the trend to "lighter, thinner, shorter,
and smaller" is taking over, together with improved performance and high
dens if ication .
In the semiconductor area, there was sharp growth in the VTR area in FY 81, in
which the growth in individual semiconductor elements exceeded that of IC
[integrated circuitsJ--something that had not been seen for a long time--but
this area is expected to witness a turnaround in FY 82. On the other hand,
there will probably be no sharp increase in IC exports. The sharp increase
in the American market share taken up by Japan-made IC memory and the de-
prPSSed business of the principal American semiconductor manufacturers have
increased the objections of the American side to Japanese IC, and this is not
an atmosphere in which domestic manufacturers can be pushing unilateral ex-
ports.
Effort To Expand Domestic Demand Is Important Subject
Japan's electronics industry not only has exceeded 10 trillion yen in produc-
tion but also has upped its export ratio to over 50 percent. This amounts to
shipping more than SO percent of domestic production overseas. Japan's elec-
tronics industry has already been in this situation for some time, and it has
come to the point where domestic factors will not determine the rise or fall
of this industry. The increasing trade-friction problem besetting Japanese
products has switched from a one-industry or one-product type to an entirely
different dimension. If the electronics industry is to l~~ok for more growth
in the future, it must somehow promote domestic demand in line with increased
exports.
To be sure, there are only a few areas in which the electronics industry can
by itself cause an expansion in domestic demand. On the other hand, there
may be a number of pathways by which a large pro~ect can be used as lever to
increase domestic demand, just as with INS. A balanced growth between domes-
tic demand and exports may be the situation that Japan's electronics industry
should be looking to in the future.
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Table 1. Prospects for the Japanese Electronics Industry in FY 82
~ (Unit: 1 Million Yen)
~ 6~~11!!3#d (81t) 3.282.908 3.882.500 4,152.100 117.9 108.9
(35.1916) (35.8916) E34.39b)
7(~~ ~ ~ 7~~ < 9~~t) 3,153,~66 3,736,100 3,991,600 118.4 106.8
9E~IIl~~tlE (8!F) 3,285,350 3,858,200 4,139,300 112.0 113.2
(34.996) (33.59K) (34.2916)
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22. Others 47. Speakers
23. Fixed resistors 48. Less than 92 mm in diameter
24. Carbon-skin fixed resistors 49. More than 92 mm in diameter
25. Carbon fixed resistors *2 50. Microphone
26. Metal-skin fixed resistors 51. Stereo headphone
27. Wire-wound fixed rPsistors 52. Pickup
28. Network resistors 53. Magnetic head
29. Others 54. Constituent parts
30. Condensers 55. Tuner for TV
31. Variable condensers 56. Crystal oscillator
32. Fixed condensers*3 57. Connector
33. Paper condensers 58. Coaxial connectors
34. Aluminum electrolytic condensers 59. Other connectors
35. Tantalum electrolytic condensers 60. Switches (limited to communica-
36. Magnetic condensers tion and electron equipment use)
37. Organic film condensers 61. Printed distribution panel*6
38. Others * 62. Less than 3 layers of conductors
39. Composite parts 5 63. For private-use equipment
40. Transformers (including wire 64. For industrial use equipment
rings) 65. 4 or more layers of conductors
41. Intermediate-frequency and high- 66. Other general parts
frequency transfflrmers 67. Receiving antenna for TV
42. Input transformer (includes step 68. Magnetic tape*~
transformer for transistors) 69. Magnetic sound tape
43. Output transformers 70. Magnetic video tape
44. Power supply transformers 71. Others
45. Others 72. See next page for *1-*8
46. Audio parts
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