FOIA
VALIDITY STUDY ON NIE 41-60 PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS IN JAPAN DATED 9 FEBRUARY 1960
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020009-5
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
S
Document Page Count:
2
Document Creation Date:
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date:
January 5, 2006
Sequence Number:
9
Case Number:
Publication Date:
February 8, 1961
Content Type:
NOTES
File:
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
 CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020009-5.pdf | 54.54 KB |
Body:
Approved For Release M06/01/17 : 89M M00097R000600 009-5
USIB.-D-16. 2/42
8 February 1961
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE :BOARD
Validity Study on NIE 41-60
Probable Developments in Japan
dated 9 February 1960
The attached Validity Study of NIE 41-60 was noted by the
Intelligence Board on 7 February 196.1 (USIB-M-139, item 9.b.).
Executive Secretary
Attachment
Approved For Release 2006/01/1EC5*L"P82M00097R000600020009-5
~~pprrTT
Approved For Release-'-2106/01/17 :VhR~i4I3P82M00097R000600 009-5
Attachment
USIB -D -16. 2 /42
8 February 1961
Validity Study on NIE 41-60
Probable Developments in Japan
dated 9 February 1960
NIE 41 -60 has held up well and we believe that its general thrust
is still valid.
Although we did not anticipate the full scope of the May-June riots
and their consequences, the estimate highlighted the uncertain political
position of Kishi and the explosive issue of securing ratification of the
US-Japan Security Treaty. For example, paragraph 12 stated:
"During the next 12 months, Kishi and his government will face
some very difficult tasks. The most important will be the ratification
of the revised US-Japan security treaty and related agreements which
is now scheduled for Diet debate in the spring of 1960. The issues in-
Volved bear directly upon many of the sensitive aspects of Japanese
politics and public susceptibilities, "
Paragraph 33 stated:
"The Japan Socialist Party and its well-organized supporters,
faced with the certainty that the treaty will be ratified if the Diet vote
follows party lines, will probably use demonstrations, strikes, parlia-
mentary obstructionism, and possibly a Diet boycott to prevent or delay
ratification, "
Approved For Release 2006/01/T7~'rl-EP82M00097R000600020009-5
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