VALIDITY STUDY ON NIE 76-58 CONDITIONS AND TRENDS IN FRENCH TROPICAL AFRICA PUBLISHED 17 JUNE 1958 AND NIE 74-57 THE OUTLOOK FOR GHANA PUBLISHED 27 DECEMBER 1957

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020035-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: June 17, 1959
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Re`ie 2006/01/17 : CfA-RDT82MO0097RO600020035-6
_x.20
USIB-D;16.2/15
17 June 1959
Validity Study of NIE 76,58
Conditions and Trends in French Tropical Africa
Piibl'is he:l;' 1 l June'" 1958
and
NIE 74-57
The Outlook for Ghana
Published 27' I3dcernbe"r 1157.
The attached validity study of NIE 75-58 and NIE 74-57 was
noted by the Intelligence Board on 16 June (,USIB-M-44, item 10 c).
Executive Secretary
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 Approved For Ref a 2006/01/175 K%T82M00097R0Ap600020035-6
USIB-D-16.2/15
17 June 1959
Validity Study of NIE 75-58
Conditions and Trends in French Tropical Africa
Published 17 June 195'$
(NIE..74-57
The Outlook for Ghana
Published 27 December 1957
1. NIE 75-58 correctly evaluated the principal political trends in
French Tropical Africa. The estimate has proved valid in its judgments
that the drive toward eventual independence would continue and that de
Gaulle's assumption of power could lead, to a revision of the French
constitution in a way which would probably accommodate African demands
over at least the short term. The estimate, which was drafted prior to
the events of 13 May in France, was then unable to foresee the profound
effects of the new constitution on France's relations with its overseas
territories.
2. At a more general level, the estimate that a collection of weak
and divided states would emerge in the area is borne out by the divisions
in French West Africa and by the very weak links created among the
territories of French Equato,riial Afri ca.. However, the Ghana-Guinea
Union and the determination of Senegal and Soudan to establish the Mali
Federation indicate that the force of sentiment for African unity was
underestimated.
3. NIE 74-57 has held up reasonably well with the following
exceptions. First, increased opposition to Nkrumah and factionalism
within the Convention People's Party have not materialized as was
expected. Indeed Nkrumah has been particularly successful in reducing
the scope of opposition activity. Secondly, Nkrumah's ambitions regarding
Pan-Africanism have not, so far, been blunted by the opposition of other
African states.
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