RECOMMENDATIONS TO CANCEL CERTAIN SCHEDULED REVISIONS OF THE IAP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R000800030002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 27, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 21, 1965
• Content Type: MF

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MF,NIORANDUM FOR THE DIRECTOR
SUBJECT Recommendations to Cancel Certain
Scheduled Revisions of the TAP
REFERENCE Memorandum for the USIB, dated 3 May 1965
(USIB-D-20.2/2)
For a recommendation, see paragraph 1+.
1. Background. Last year, at the request of the Office
of the Secretary of Defense, the intelligence community produced
"Soviet Military Forces through Mid-1970 (TAP-64)." This was
the first in a new series of planning documents, called
"Intelligence Assumptions for Planning" or "IALPs," designed to
meet the express requirements of OSD for vastly more detail
over such a long period than was available or deemed appropriate
in the National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). The evidence as
to the future course of Soviet military policy is insufficient
to justify estimating such details as TO&Es, deployment, and
weapon characteristics far into the future. Further, the policy-
makers to whom the MIEs are addressed are usuallymrrnore concerned
with broader aspects of military problems. By tailoring a
document specifically for military planners rather than the
higher policy-making levels, and by frankly terming its judgments
"assumptions" rather than "estimates," these difficulties were
overcome.
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2. In accordance with agreed procedures, the first
three sections of the IAP were updated as the major military
NIEs were approved. Section I, which deals with strategic
attack forces, was updated following USIB approval in October
of NIB 11-8-64 on that subject; Section III on general purpose
forces was updated to conform to NIB 11-14-64 dealing with
those forces, which was completed in December. Section II
on air and missile defense is now being revised in the light
of NIB 11-3-64,on this subject, which was also published
in December.
3. The last three Sections (V, Vi, and VII) of the IAP
are concerted with the nuclear, costing, and manpower implica-
tions of Soviet force structures assumed for the future, and
are therefore dependent upon the first three sections. It was
intended that these should be revised and reissued as a package
following completion of the force estimates. Accordingly, a new
issuance of Sections V, VI, and VII of IAP-64 was tentatively
scheduled for this June. However, for the reasons set forth in
the referenced memorandum to the UBIB, this appeared inadvisable;
we recommended that the USIB cancel the revision scheduled for
this year, and concentrate instead upon preparing the next cycle
of revisions. We further proposed that if the U5IB accepted
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this recommendation, a Memorandum to Holders of the IAP be issued
calling attention to this action. All the USIB members have now
agreed to these proposals.
4. Recommendation: That you concur in the proposal to
cancel the previously scheduled revisions of Sections V, VI$
and VII of :LAP-64.
25X1
SHER1AN ITT
Chairman
W. F. Raborn Date
Chairman, USIB
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C E N T R A L I N T E L L I G E N C E A G E N C Y
30 June 1965
MEMORANDUM TO HOLDERS OF IAP-64: SOVIET MILITARY FORCES THROUGH MID-1970
SUBJECT: POSTPONEMENT OF CERTAIN SCHEDULED REVISIONS
1. On 27 May 1965, the United States Intelligence Board agreed that
the revision of Sections V, VI, and VII of IAP-64, which had been tentatively
scheduled for June 1965, should be cancelled. Present plans call for the
revision of these sections early next year, immediately following completion
of the major force estimates and the associated revision of Sections I, II,
and III.
2. Sections V, VI, and VII deal with the nuclear, manpower, and
expenditures implications of the force projections set forth in the first
three sections of the paper. Since the IAP was first issued in July 1964,
Sections I, II, and III have been revised to reflect the most recent National
Intelligence Estimates. These revisions involved matters of detail rather
than major judgments; they were not, however, carried over into the last
three sections o? the paper. Sections V, VI, and VII are therefore revoked,
but may be retained for background information.
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