SECRETARIAT SUMMARY OF USIB AGENDA FOR 15 APRIL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R002600180025-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 19, 2005
• Sequence Number: 25
• Publication Date: April 13, 1971
• Content Type: MF

TOP SECRET
Approved For$elease 2005/12/05: CIA-RDP82M0009 to0002 p180015-8
TS## 198519-71
13 April 1971
MEMORANDUM FOR CHAIRMAN, USIB
SUBJECT Secretariat Summary of USIB Agenda for 15 April
Item 1 Watch Report
Draft by the Watch Committee to be circulated for USIB approval;
Sponsor - General Cushman
NOTE: You may wish to announce that this will
be Abbot Smith's last meeting as Chairman of
BNE and that John Huizenga has been designated
as his replacement.
Item 2 NIE on Soviet Policy in Asia
BNE draft coordinated with USIB Representatives for USIB
approval; Sponsor - Mr. Abbot Smith
This regularly scheduled estimate was initiated by ONE, but
has been tailored to comply with Admiral Anderson's interest in the
military aspects of Sino-Soviet relations. The TOP SECRET Annex to
this paper on "The Sino-Soviet Military Balance" will be published as a
separate document and given a more limited distribution.
Originally, also at Admiral Anderson's request, the Annex
contained a series of hypothetical military scenarios in the event of Sino-
Soviet conflict. BNE was concerned with some of the implications of
including this type of material in a formal NIE. Accordingly, following
agreement with the USIB Representatives, it was decided to issue these
"Scenarios" as a separate ONE Memorandum with a very limited distri-
bution. This memorandum (see Tab under Item 2) is currently being
coordinated informally with the USIB member agencies and BNE does not
anticipate that it will be discussed at the Board meeting.
The Army Representative has joined the DIA Representative
in reserving on Principal Observations E and H (pp. 3 and 5) and on
Part II, Sections C and D (page 27). Their view, expressed at length in
pages 27 to 29, differs with BNE concerning the likelihood of future
Soviet military action against China. The objection is specifically to the
"implied judgment" that such action is unlikely although the dissenting
footnote does not estimate that such action is likely. In fact, the final
paragraph of the dissent states that "we cannot estimate a future (Soviet)
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
TOP SECRET declassification
Approved For Release 2005/12/05 : CIA-RDP82M00097R002600180025-8
 TOP SECRET
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decision with any assurance. " BNE's judgment concerning this issue
is expressed in summary form in paragraph E (page 3). BNE believes
that Navy may join the DIA and Army to the extent of dissenting
specifically from the judgment expressed in the last sentence of para-
graph E which suggests that, should the Soviets resort to military force,
they would be more likely to mount limited cross-border operations than
to engage in larger and riskier actions.
BNE is not aware of any other disagreements with this paper
as it now stands.
Item 3 NIE on Colombia
BNE draft coordinated with USIB Representatives for USIB
approval; Sponsor - Mr. Abbot Smith
This regularly scheduled estimate was initiated by CIA in
anticipation of important and perhaps unsettling changes on the Colombian
scene over the next several years. USIB approved the last estimate on
Colombia in 1965. This draft is fully coordinated at the USIB Representa-
tive's level. The ARA desk people at State have indicated their desire for
additional changes on an economic point; however BNE understands that
INR intends to support the text in its present form. BNE does not anticipate
any particular problems at USIB.
25X1
Executive ecre aryl. ;
- 2 - TS# 198519-71
TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2005/12/05 : CIA-RDP82M00097R002600180025-8