MEMORANDUM OF ESTIMATE ON SOVIET CAPABILITIES FOR STRATEGIC ATTACK ISSUED 18 OCTOBER 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82R00025R000400030007-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2005
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: January 10, 1964
• Content Type: MEMO

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0 January 1964
ANDUM OF ESTIMATE ON SOVIET CAPA
STRATEGIC ATTACK
Issued 1$ October 1963
rtes are based on all available intelligence
ing COM i T, FLINT, clandestine sources and
s important because the Soviet rely on
transport facilities. We 6elievee about 150 launchers are now
operational and probably equipped with missiles.
3. In the past two years the Soviets have continued on
their program of expanding their ICBM force. We believe that about
250 to 350 launchers will be operational by mid--'65 and about a third
s number will be hardened site.
NOTE: The Air Force believes the higher number of
the range is the more realistic.
25X1
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.oaad A
our TITAN 11
_71
$8-6 capable of carrying a heavier
3 test tiring* of t'
The
4. T e principal ICBM is the SS-7 which is comparable
dificaation of
`uel and inertial guidance ..
end obsolescent and there were only
Uo during 1963 compared to ZS of the SS-71a.
-7 o w carries a 3-megaton warhead. This can
timately to about 11 megatons
A now Missile. the SS-8. apparently is an site
have
the
raewhat larger, A still further development
by some recent tests
viatica
6. The Soviets do not bave a missile capability of 1iftln:
been diagnosed.
o not qua*
attempt
velop a aiseable booster capable of lifting the warhead. 'e.
Soviet missiles in an Operational status
at 6
nautical miles on target.
7. We have noted continued expansion of tha- Tyura Tam
le Test Range and from this conclude that the Soviet missile
but will be subject to further devel
.vaa
n se. a smaller ICBM than the SS.
avidence of a Soviet capability for a solid fueled long
missile. They do use solid fuels in field type missiles however.
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400 and 70
large.
Looking to 1969, we expect the Soviets to have between
' *:,: a few of which
a 25 to 50 - will be very
S intelligence community the Navy favors the lower
the Soviet objective
e 4e*4ed.
a Cou d
9$9.
Air Force leans to a higher range
nissilss similar to the MINUTEMAN
vs at least 1.000 ICBM's on pads
The MRBM program seems to be pretty well completed.
launch positio
s ranging .art
2, 200 miles, capable of
carrying warheads of Z. to 3 megatons and perhaps more. We expect
this development to level oft at 700 to 750 launchers. These missiles
on Soviet territory and are deployed to give complete coverage
stern Europe, Spain,, British Isles., ,Tapan, Formosa, Okinawa,
:;hina and the Subcontinent.
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The Soviets have about 70 submarine* capable of
g cruise missiles of 350-mile range. 70 are nuclear-powered.
orce will reach the level of 10S to 140 by 1969.
ve positive evidence the Soviets are experimenting
and have fired a submerged ballistic missile which we believe to
be of 100-mile range.
The submarines carry 2 0;
s per submarine.
appreciable changes in the status
Soviet long range aviation capability. They have about 200 heavy
bombers and tankers and about 1,000 medium bombers.
They have developed a. medium bomber known as the
which has a supersonic capability.
The Air Force believes the Soviets will dove
long range supersonic bomber. They have this technical capability.
We have no evidence to support or deny their intention..
1 2. The significant observations aret
a. Probable development of a I&:
capable of lifting a 100-megaton bomb.
-4-
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b. Observed activity at Tyura Tarr indicate*
Soviet ICBM efforts in evolutiorary phase.
The degree of hardening of bases has serious
on strategy.
13. Reference to the anti-b
of R & D an
missile, our conclusion
r investment, the Soviet has
not developed an effective and reliable ABM system but we believe
the Soviets will not approve large expenditures or wide-spread
deepl
present system which we have observed a
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Copy of material used by DCI on
15 January 1964 - DCI has originals
0-04~L~ -
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