NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 18 JULY 1980

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82T00466R000400010049-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 22, 2008
• Sequence Number: 49
• Publication Date: July 18, 1980
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of 1 op secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
18 July 1980
Top Secret
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CO NID 80-16
16.1uly 11980
COPY 2 3 5
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Zimbabwe: White Military Commander Quitting . . . . . . . 2
North Korea: Succession Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
India-Pakistan: Dialogue to Continue . . . . . . . . . . 4
Bolivia: Military Takeover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Poland: Unrest in Lublin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Liberia-USSR: Invitation From Moscow . . . . . . . . . . 10
Angola: Aid to UNITA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
South Africa: Black Workers' Protests . . . . . . . . . . 11
Top Secret
18 July 1980
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RUFF-UMBRA
NOFORN-N000NTRACT-
ORCON
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ZIMBABWE: White military Commander Quitting
The retirement of armed forces commander WaZZs, announced
yesterday in Salisbury, creates yet another delicate political 25X1
problem for the Mugabe government.
Walls has been frustrated by the slow pace of form-
ing a new national army from various guerrilla factions
and the former Rhodesian army and by the lack of disci-
pline among the guerrillas. In addition, he has been
faced with the uncooperativeness and incompetence of Rex
Nhongo, the military commander of the Zimbabwe African 25X1
Walls also may have concluded that there is simply
no future for whites in Zimbabwe over the longer term.
His departure will add to the fears of whites and could
set off a new wave of emigration and mass resignations 25X1
Prime Minister Mugabe, who had developed a close
relationship with Walls, will have difficulty replacing
him. Although Army commander Maclean is regarded as
competent, he probably would not work well with black
commanders. 25X1
Nhongo and his counterpart in the Zimbabwe African
People's Union are not of Walls' caliber. Either would
object to the selection of the other to fill the post.
All parties will view Mugabe's choice of a successor as
an indication of the direction in which the government
is moving.
18 July 1980
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Discussion of the succession issue within the North Korean
Leadership evidently is intensifying as Pyongyang prepares for its 25X1
Since at least 1973, North Korean President Kim Il-
song has been actively grooming his eldest son, Kim Chong-
il, as his successor. The elder Kim has kept his succes-
sion plans under wraps, however, to give his son an
opportunity to gain acceptance and legitimacy at home and
to avoid a lameduck status for himself. North Korea also
is sensitive to foreign perceptions of an emerging Kim
"dynasty," particularly on the part of China and the
USSR.
In recent weeks North Korea has aired a series of
broadcasts that appear to be arguing the case for pub-
licly designating Kim's son as successor while Kim Il-
song is still alive and the ultimate source of authority.
There is no evidence that the 68-year-old Kim's health
is failing, and he is maintaining an active public
The broadcasts have been carried by an unofficial
radio used by Pyongyang to raise sensitive issues with
which the regime does not wish to be directly or pub-
licly associated. They seem to reflect behind-the-scenes
maneuvering over the succession issue in anticipation of
the party's Sixth Congress in October--the first major
party gathering in 10 years and an obvious forum for
announcing Kim Chong-il's succession.
A broadcast yesterday seemed to acknowledge that
Kim's succession plan is unpopular with some in North
Korea, especially senior leaders who might have ambitions
of their own. In remarkably candid terms, it admonished
veteran members of Kim Il-song's inner circle, stating
that their "advanced age" rules them out as likely
18 July 1980
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: Dialogue to Continue
The Latest round of high-Level talks between India and Paki-
stan produced no breakthroughs on contentious issues, but both sides
want the dialogue to continue.
Afghanistan and the normalization of bilateral re-
lations were the most important issues discussed during
Pakistani Foreign Minister Agha Shahi's three-day visit
to New Delhi this week. Both sides agree on the need
for a political solution in Afghanistan and want to see
all Soviet troops withdrawn, but they continue to differ
on approach and methods.
Traditional sensitivities still hamper the Indo-
Pakistani dialogue. The Indians reportedly objected to
the public references by Shahi to India's recent arms
purchases from the USSR and to his remarks about re-
solving the Kashmir dispute; they prefer to discs
such delicate matters only behind closed doors.
Neither side appears to have expected significant
results. Both want the normalization process to go for-
ward but understand the need to build mutual confidence
before the specifics of key issues can be addressed.
Both countries apparently hope that continuing
meetings will gradually foster such confidence or at
least prevent relations from deteriorating to the danger-
ous levels of the past. Indian Foreign Minister Rao has
accepted an invitation to visit Islamabad, presumably
after new talks at a lower level in New Delhi.
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BOLIVIA: Military Takeover
Top Secret
The Bolivian military, which yesterday seized control from
interim President GueiZer and announced that a junta composed of
the three service commanders will govern the country, faces almost
certain opposition both at home and from abroad.
The coup, which began yesterday with a military
takeover in Trinidad, spread to other key cities and
culminated with units in the La Paz area taking control
of the capital and national government. The military
moved quickly to round up several government officials
and civilian opponents, although the winner of the recent
presidential election, Hernan Siles Zuazo, apparently is
still in hiding. Curfews have been imposed, radio sta-
tions in the major cities have been seized, and pressure
is being put on President Gueiler to formally resign.
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative
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Widespread Labor unrest in Lublin yesterday, triggered by
economic grievances, appears to be the most serious in Poland since
meat price increases on 1 JuZy Zed to a series of strikes.
The disturbances--highlighted by railroad workers
blocking the tracks with their locomotives--ended the
calm that prevailed in Poland for several days. Strikes
were reported in many plants in the city, and military
vehicles are said to be delivering food to stores and
hospitals.
Demands for wage increases apparently are fueling
the protests. A number of other grievances, ranging
from frustration over meat and other food shortages to
complaints over specific working conditions, also are
contributing to the recurring unrest throughout the
country.
In an apparent hint that continued disorder could
provoke Soviet military intervention, party chief Gierek
yesterday said that "lack of discipline" was endangering
the country.
The regime's stance since the initial strikes in
early July has generally been conciliatory. Although
the meat price hikes--which no longer seem to-be an
important contributor to the labor turmoil--were not
rescinded, the regime has granted wage increases,
averaging 10 percent, to at least some striking workers.
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Sergeant Doe's acceptance of an invitation by Pres-
ident Brezhnev to visit the USSR at some unspecified
future date is the first open sign of the new government's
efforts to broaden its international ties beyond its 25X1
traditional close alignment with the US.
Foreign Minister Matthews wants to 25X1
establish a nonaligned foreign policy and has no inten-
tion of favoring Moscow or allowing it to interfere in
Liberia's affairs. the Doe gov- 25X1
ernment has given the USSR permission to expand the size
of its Embassy staff in Monrovia. The mission was cut
back early last year following riots over the price of
rice, which the Tolbert government suspected were en-
couraged by the Soviets.
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Jonas Savimbi, leader of the National Union for the
Total Independence of Angola, recently received renewed
foreign pledges of financial and military support
needed to step up the insurgency in the south.
SOUTH AFRICA: Black Workers' Protests
Black labor unrest, which has intensified in recent
months and spread to several important South African
industries, forced a halt this week to construction of
the country's third synthetic oil plant. Workers, com-
plaining of tightened security procedures, began demon-
strating Monday; several have been injured, and one white
employee reportedly was killed by a black mob. The
management of the project is planning to resume construc-
tion on Monday, but some workers are threatening to quit
if their grievances are not met. Black industrial un-
rest, which is aggravated by specific labor problems and
by the government's racial policies, probably will
increase over the next few months and become more mili-
18 y
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