NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 27 AUGUST 1980

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82T00466R000400020113-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 113
• Publication Date: August 27, 1980
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of a ~=~-- 1 op ~ecrei
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
27 August 1980
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0
? August 1980
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Top Secret
Top Secret
27 August 1980
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German
'~o
Democratic
~2epublic
Czechosio
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Stefan Cardinal Wyszynski yesterday came close to explicitly
asking Polish strikers to return to work.
Speaking to an estimated crowd of 100,000 in
Czestochowa, the Polish Primate said that there is no
well-being without work-and that "not working" is a very
costly argument. He also counseled that "one must not
demand too much," perhaps reflecting a belief that the
strikers are being too uncompromising.
The government broadcast Wyszynski's homily on
nationwide prime time television, one of the few times
the Polish media have aired a religious event. Regime
leaders undoubtedly hope that Wyszynski's message will
help put the workers in a mood to compromise. They can
also claim that the broadcast is a step toward meeting
the strikers' demand that the Church have greater access
The reaction of strikers to the televised message
is not yet available. Workers have interpreted earlier,
more ambiguous Church statements as support for their
cause and could read the same message into the Cardinal's
remark that "man has a right to abstain from working when
there is no other way to emphasize his importance."
Top Secret
27 August 1980
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~ ~ox~i
Tough Negotiations
Top Secret
The strikers and regime have both adopted very tough 25X1
bargaining stances. During the official negotiating ses-
sions in Gdansk, the strike leaders firmly restated their
demand for free trade unions and threatened to call a
nationwide general strike if the demand is not met.
Chief government negotiator Jagielski--while re-
portedly willing to concede to workers the right to strike
in extremis--tried to keep the talks focused on economic
matters and refused to discuss the issue of free trade
unions. The two sides reportedly agreed to let a sub-
commission of "experts" debate the issue.
Strike leaders are publicly remaining adamant on
the free trade union issue, but some of the dissident
intellectuals who have gone to Gdansk to aid the strikers
reportedly are split on the matter.
The regime seemed to be signaling last night that
it is near the limits of what it is prepared to concede
on the free trade union issue. In a dramatically worded
statement on national television last evening, Ryszard
Wojna, an editor of the party daily, said that there are
certain subjects that cannot be discussed and "where
peoples' power cannot and has no right to yield." He
explicitly said that Poland is in the Soviet sphere of
influence and that any basic change in Poland's polit-
ical system could bring "dangerous consequences." He
raised the specter of a "national catastrophe"--similar
to the partitioning of Poland in the late 18th century--
if the situation continues to develop "in a dangerous
--continued
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27 August 1980
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Top Secret
The meeting yesterday of the official trade union
organization probably .did little to convince strikers
that the party is serious about trade union reform. The
former conservative union boss was removed, but his re-
placement is a candidate member of the party's Central
Committee who has come up through union ranks.
Military Activity 25X1
insta ations
placed on alert.
several Polish military 25X1
suggests that some units have been 25X1
Cargo trucks from a Polish mechanized infantry reg-
iment and a tank battalion housed in the Szczecin area
have been in convoy formations within their garrisons
suggesting that at least these units of 25X1
t e ivision ave been alerted. 25X
Truck convoys were also observed at a military in-
stallation in Gdansk where units of the Polish sea landing
division are housed. Polish 25X1
airborne installations in Krakow suggests that one bat- 25hi
talion of airborne troops has left garrison and selected
airborne reservists have been called up to fill out other
--continued
Top Secret
27 August 1980
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To Secret
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We anticipate seeing additional Polish military ac-
tivity as contingents prepare for the major Warsaw Pact
exercise to be held in East Germany in early September.
It will be increasingly difficult to determine whether
such activity is related to domestic Polish developments
or to the Warsaw Pact exercise. 25X1
Soviet Government Comments
In Moscow's first official government comment on
Poland's troubles, a foreign ministry spokesman yester-
day described the events as "purely an internal affair
of that state," implicitly warning the West against ex-
ploiting the situation and, at the same time, attempting
to alla Western fears of Soviet intervention. 25X1
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27 August 198Q
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U.S.S.R.
1 > Gorg6n
'' Uazvin, _ _ r'r _ra--
9?
~ ~'~~ ~-~I ran
s
Iraq
Iraq -Saudi Arabia
Neutral Zone
Caspian
Sea
Boundary represe~~l alion ~s
not n arily au~hor~t ativp
U.. S. S. R.
Afghanistan
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~ LJ/~ I
Top Secret
President Bani-Sadr appears to be making a Zast ditch effort
to prevent radical hardline clerics from eompZeteZz~ dominating the
new government.
Prime Minister Rajai presented his list of cabinet
ministers to Ayatollah Khomeini on Saturday, and on Sunday
discussed it with Bani-Sadr. The President subsequently
stated that Rajai's candidate for the Interior Ministry
is unacceptable on the grounds that the post should be
held by someone not affiliated with any party. The un-
identified nominee probably was a member of the clerics'
Islamic Republic Party.
Rajai has taken his list to
the Assembly, which probably will vote informally to ap-
prove it. Debate on Rajai's nominees may be intense be-
cause members of the Islamic Republic Party a arentl
do not agree among themselves on the cabinet.
There are other signs of growing factionalization
in the party. Jalaledin Farsi has publicly criticized
Rajai, accusing him of having no political procrram. ~
The Hostages
The militants, in a statement yesterday, claimed
that the hostages who have been held iri Shiraz, Gorgan,
Qazvin, and Zanjan have been transferred to other loca-
tions to thwart any rescue attempt.
two buildings are
being constructed on the grounds of the former American
Consulate in Tabriz.
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27 August 1980
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ZIMBABWE: Mugabe's Visit
During his brief visit to Washington, Prime Minister Mugabe
hopes to secure tangible evidence of US support, including commit-
ments of substantial economic aid over the next fern nears.
Mugabe would like the US to take the lead in forming
a consortium to help finance about $1.5 billion of
Zimbabwe's $5 billion five-year development plan. The
bulk would be invested in energy, transportation, and
communications projects. At least $300 million would be
used to repatriate war refugees, rebuild the country's
damaged infrastructure, and initiate a potentially con-
troversial land reform program.
Western countries have pledged an estimated $500
million in aid but Salisbury thus far has received less
than $100 million. These .aid commitments, most of which
will be used for rural development programs, are part of
the $1.5 billion Mugabe seeks.
Although Mugabe prefers official loans and grants,
the government's economic policies have created an at-
mosphere encouraging to private foreign capital. While
trying to meet rising black expectations, he has avoided
actions which could cause capital flight and rapid white
emigration.
Mugabe recently boosted prices paid to farmers and
presented a moderate budget to be financed without rais-
ing corporate or income taxes--measures of great concern
to the white community. He has also maintained economic
ties with South Africa despite Pretoria's suspension of
budgetary assistance in March.
Politically, Mugabe will try to assess what priori-
ties the US assigns to the need for change in South Africa
and a settlement on Namibia. He may raise his proposal
to host an all-parties conference on Namibia; he has of-
fered to meet with Prime Minister Botha, if necessary,
to smooth the way. Until the Frontline States and the
South Africans can agree on the meaning of the term
"all-parties," however, the chances for actually conven-
ing a conference remain slim.
27 August 1980
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FRANCE: Dispute With Fishermen Continues
Top Secret
The French cabinet meets today in the hope of agreeing on a
position that will mollify the striking fishermen, but a solution
could produce new problems with France's EC partners if it reduces
imports of foreign caught fish.
Fishermen at the Mediterranean oil port of Fos
returned to their blockade yesterday following a one-day
shutdown of the port by dockworkers. They are trying to
extend their blockade to Antifer, France's second largest
oil terminal. The government has dispatched several ships
to Antifer to counter the fishermen's efforts there.
Violence broke out in Boulogne on Monday as police used
tear gas to disperse fishermen blocking truck deliveries
of imported fish.
Negotiations aimed at settling the dispute bogged
down on Monday when representatives of the Communist-
dominated General Workers Confederation walked out after
demanding that the government withdraw police forces from
the ports. Representatives of the socialist-leaning French
Democratic Workers Confederation stayed on to talk but
gave little ground.
A revised EC fishing policy
will not be ready before the end of the year, and if
Paris' actions affect fish imports from the. Community,
France's partners may interpret such a move as a slap at
the process and as a violation of the free access prin-
ciple. New tension between Paris and its partners could
result.
27 August 1980
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INTERNATIONAL: Energy Aid to Developing Countries
World Bank President McNamara's .proposal for a five-
year $25 billion lending program to help Third World
countries generate their energy resources undercuts their
strategy for the UN Special Session on Development which
began this week in New York. The developing countries
hoped to link discussion of their energy problems with
industrialized country acceptance of concessions on in-
ternational trade and monetary system reform. They hoped
to press for concessions in these three areas, all of
which they consider critical to their development. The
World Bank proposal--which is a continuation of Western
aid policy and not intended to frustrate the efforts of
less developed countries--follows a proposal last month
by UN Secretary-General Waldheim for a $5 billion
emergency balance-of-payments assistance program. Many
Third World countries believe that these two proposals,
which focus on financial relief for their energy-
related problems, will be used by the industrialized
countries to avoid considering more fundamental reforms
in North-South trade and monetary relations.
Top Secret
27 August 1980
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Atlantic
Ocean
Central African Republic
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authontative
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ZAIRE: Repatriation of Ex-Katangan Rebels
The repatriation from Angola of Zairian dissidents
who invaded the Shaba region in 1977 and 1978 has gotten
off to a shaky start. Some ex-Katangans and their families
from Angola have learned of the agreement reached earlier
this month between their leaders and the Zairian Government
and have begun to return to Zaire although no official
repatriation program has been organized. There is
considerable confusion among Zairian officals in Shaba,
and some prospective returnees reportedly have been sent
back to Angola. If the government does not act soon
to draw up a program and request assistance from the UN
High Commissioner for ,Refugees, the agreement with the
The unanticipated movement of rebels and their families
h.as heightened Zairian security concerns.
SOUTH AFRICA: Cabinet Shakeup
Prime Minister Botha has announced a cabinet shakeup
effective as of early October, partly to dispel the grow-
ing public impression of stagnation in his administration.
The announcement follows the rejection by nonwhites ear-
lier this month of Botha's latest racial reform initia-
tives. Botha reportedly plans to replace several minis-
ters including the Interior Linister--a Botha loyalist
and the ruling National Party's nominee to the post of
state vice president--with reform-minded members of the
Afrikaner establishment. The most prominent newcomers
will be Gerrit Viljoen, the Administrator General of
Namibia, who will take over as Minister of Education,
and General Magnus Malan, the armed forces commander, who
will take over the Defense portfolio Botha has held for
14 years.
Top Secret
27 August 1980
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