SPAIN: A FIRST LOOK AT THE GONZALEZ TEAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83-00857R000200030002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 11, 2008
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
CIA-RDP83-008578000200030002-6
aecre~
25X1
Spain: A First Look at
the Gonzalez Team ~ 25X1
An Intelligence Assessment
State Dept. review completed
Secret
EUR 82-10144
December /981
Copy ~ ~
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Intelligence
Spain: A First Look at
the Gonzalez Team
This assessment was prepared by
of the Office of European Ana ysis wit a
contribution from the Office of Central Reference.
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
addressed to the Chief, Iberia-Aegean Branch,
EURA
This paper was coordinated with the Directorate of
Operations and with the National Intelligence
Council.
Secret
EUR 82-10144
December 1982
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Spain: A First Look at
the Gonzalez Team ~
Key Judgments Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez has selected young, competent, and
Irdormation available administratively experienced moderates for his Cabinet. While we would
as oI'8 December 1982 classify the majority of the ministers as social democrats, we are struck by
was used in this report.
the extent to which Gonzalez has incorporated representatives from all
sectors of the Socialist Party into his government-with the notable
exception of the radical Marxist "critico" faction. Nine of the 16 ministers
are professional economists; many were educated in Europe or North
America and have had practical experience in government that supple-
ments their academic credentials. In our view Gonzalez has selected his
ministers more for their technical competence and their compatibility with
his views than for their personal loyalty or closeness to the Prime Minister.
While some cabinet members-especially Vice Prime Minister Alfonso
Guerra, Economics Minister Miguel Boyer, and Culture Minister Javier
Solana-are long-time Gonzalez intimates, others-including the holders
of the important defense, foreign affairs, and territorial administration
portfolios-do not belong to the Prime Minister's inner circle.
Although the moderate cast of the government and Gonzalez's effective
leadership style and undisputed authority within the party will provide
Cabinet cohesion, we think the potential exists for friction among the
ministers. If the government's moderate economic package and cautious
policies prove ineffective, personal rivalries could blossom among members
of the economic team, and between the abrasive Alfonso Guerra and much
of the Cabinet. We believe another source of tension may be the
responsibilities of Foreign Minister Fernando Moran, who is somewhat
more leftist and doctrinaire than the rest of the Cabinet. In our view
Gonzalez will attempt to restrict Moran's autonomy and keep relations
with the United States, Europe, and Latin America under his personal
control.
iii Secret
EUR 82-10144
December 1982
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~ecre><
Spain: A First Look at
the Gonzalez Team ~
Not since the brief heyday of Adolfo Suarez has a
Spanish Prime Minister matched the confidence,
sense of authority, and undisputed preeminence with-
in his party possessed by Felipe Gonzalez. The new
Prime Minister's image as a youthful, idealistic but
pragmatic reformer-widely and effectively promoted
during the electoral campaign-far overshadows the
prestige of his party. In fact, the current Socialist
Workers Party (PSOE), notwithstanding its century-
long existence, is very much of the product of Gonza-
lez and his immediate collaborators. When Gonzalez
became PSOE Secretary General in 1974, the party
was a small, radical, and largely ineffectual under-
ground organization in opposition to Franco; now it is
a large, well disciplined, and moderate party on its
way to embracing modern European social democra-
We believe that Gonzalez will take charge of his
government much as he has dominated the PSOE.
Although his leadership style is collegial and general-
ly nonabrasive, Gonzalez will use his unrivalled au-
thority to impose discipline within his administration
and clearly set the government's priorities and goals.
The orderly and controlled fashion in which the
cabinet was assembled-with virtually no leaks to the
press and few rumors of factional infighting-bodes
well for the government's initial stability and cohe-
sion.
The Cabinet reflects Gonzalez's pragmatism, modera-
tion, and caution-dualities he displayed in abun-
dance during the electoral campaign. Nine of the 16
ministers are professional economists, many of them
with extensive administrative experience. The empha-
sis on technical competence is combined with youth:
the average age of the ministers is Gonzalez's own 40
years. While a majority of the Cabinet members can
be ideologically defined as social democrats, repre-
sentatives of all the PSOE's tendencies-with the
exception of the radical Marxist "critico" faction-
are present in the new government. Several minis-
ters-including Foreign Minister Fernando Moran
and Economics Minister Miguel Boyer-held official
Cambio Media
Spain's most popular politician, 40-year-old Prime Minister Gonza-
lez is the undisputed leader of Spanish socialism. Politically
pragmatic and nonideological, he has avoided identification with
any faction within the party and is largely responsible for the
moderate image that brought the PSOE to power. Gonzalez
practiced labor law in Seville before joining the PSOE in 1964. He
has been secretary general of the party since 1974 and a deputy to
or advisory posts during the Franco regime. At least
four of the appointees-among them Transport and
Communications Minister Enrique Baron, Territorial
Administration Minister Tomas de la Cuadra, and
Interior Minister Jose Barrionuevo-do not have even
a whiff of Marxism in their past, having joined the
socialists only when the Christian Democratic opposi-
tion groups they supported shifted markedly to the
right. Gonzalez seems to have chosen his ministers 25X1
mainly for their professional abilities and political
compatibility, not for their personal loyalty or close-
ness to him. Although a number of key figures-
notably Vice Prime Minister Alfonso Guerra, Minis-
ter of Culture Javier Solana, and Miguel Boyer-are
long-time intimates of Gonzalez, the holders of the
important foreign affairs, defense, territorial adminis-
tration, and justice posts, for example, do not belong
to the Prime Minister's inner circle.
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 E! Socialists
Vice Prime Minister Alfonso Guerra, whose association with Felipe
Gonzalez dates back to the 1950s, has been Vice Secretary General
of the PSOE since 1979. He is widely recognized as a talented
administrator who has orchestrated the PSOE's successful cam-
paigns and created the organization behind Gonzalez's rise to
poyer. Nevertheless, Guerra's confrontational style and leftist
rhetoric have alienated many party moderates. Guerra, 42, was his
party's anti-NATO standard bearer before Spain joined that
organization. Guerra holds a degree in philosophy and is an
The Gonzalez-Guerra Duo
Virtually the sole source of drama during the Cabi-
net's formation was doubt as to whether Alfonso
Guerra, Gonzalez's right-hand man, would accept the
vice-prime-ministership. According to the press,
Guerra resisted joining the government up to the last
minute, preferring to continue as PSOE parliamenta-
ry floor leader and party vice secretary general. There
has been much press speculation that Guerra, fre-
quently labeled a leftist, feared too close an associa-
tion with amoderate-almost centrist-PSOE ad-
ministration. We believe, however, that Guerra's
reluctance stemmed primarily from a desire to oversee
the party now that Gonzalez will devote most of his
energy to government matters, and from a showman's
natural preference for parliamentary debate over bu-
reaucratic and administrative tussles.
In fact we view much of the negative press Guerra has
received as being related to his penchant for the
dramatic and his temperamental character, rather
than to his political ideology. Among other vocations
Guerra has been a theatrical producer-a profession
in which his flair for dramatics suited him well.
Although certainly to the left of Gonzalez on general
economic policy and educational issues, his loyalty to
the Prime Minister and his key role in moderating the
PSOE during the past half decade raise doubts as to
the depth of his radicalism. In our view much of the
PSOE's cohesion has been due to a division of labor
between its two top leaders, Gonzalez supplying the
carrot of statesmanship and moderation and Guerra
wielding the stick of internal discipline combined with
occasional verbal sops to the left. We believe that
Guerra will serve Gonzalez's interests better as a key
man inside the government than outside the Cabinet,
as full-time head of the PSOE parliamentary delega-
tion. Guerra is ahard-hitting debater, and as Socialist
floor leader he might frequently clash with the equally
volatile leader of the opposition, Manuel Fraga.
We believe the potential exists, nevertheless, for fric-
tion between Guerra and certain Cabinet members,
notably Miguel Boyer; according to press and Embas-
sy reporting, Guerra has undercut Boyer in past party
infighting and the two do not get along well personal-
ly. We do not think this alone is likely to destroy the
government's cohesion, but it could make for some
rough going during the first several months when the
inexperience of some of the ministers will generate
unavoidable tensions.
Defense and Foreign Affairs
Gonzalez's Foreign Minister, Fernando Moran, is in
our view the chief question mark in an otherwise
Moran rose to become Director General of Africa and
the Middle East at the Foreign Ministry during the
initial years of the post-Franco era before temporarily
leaving the service to enter politics. Always aleftist-
his political reputation hampered his career under
Franco-he became increasingly vocal after 1975,
urging a more neutralist, pro-Third World orienta-
tion for Spanish foreign policy and arguing strongly
against his country's membership in NATO. Moran
was briefly associated with the "critico" faction of the
PSOE, which opposed Gonzalez's alleged "social de-
mocratization" of the party. Although he has recently
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promising political future in Catalonia and is publicly
known to be aiming for the Presidency of the regional
government, we believe he would not have agreed to
go to Madrid without assurances of full powers at the
Ministry and of a decisive role in shaping Spanish 25X1
Economic Ministries
We think that another of Gonzalez's wiser selections
was his tapping of Miguel Boyer for the gargantuan
Economics-Finance-Commerce "super-ministry."
Boyer, along-time PSOE member and close associate
of the Prime Minister, is considered by pundits to be a
"social democrat to the core." He temporarily aban-
doned the PSOE in 1977 for an explicitly social 25X1
democratic grouping, claiming that the party was
becoming too radical. His experience in the private
sector, his role as consultant to state-owned firms both
during and after the Franco period, and his personal
ties to leading centrist politicians have earned him the
confidence of the financial and business community.
Boyer will be responsible for coordinating the work of
all the economic ministries and establishing the guide-
lines of the government's economic program. His
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Er Sociarista
US Embassy officials consider Fernando Moran, 56, Minister of
Foreign Affairs, to be one of the most experienced and influential
foreign policy experts in the PSOE. He considers himself to be a
Marxist and has opposed NATO membership for Spain. A veteran
diplomat, he was a PSOE Senator from 1978 until he was elected a
deputy to the Cortes in 1982. Moran graduated from the Diplomat-
ic School in Madrid, where he was until recently chief of historical
studies. He has also studied at the London School of Economics and
Cortes Genera!
The popular mayor of Barcelona from 1979 until 1982, Narcis
Serra i Serra, is a 39-year-old trained economist. During his intense
involvement in the politics of the Catalonia, where he also served as
regional Minister of Public Works and Territorial Policy (1977-79),
he earned a reputation as a capable and innovative administrator
who was able to mobilize the bureaucracy towards making effective
decisions. A founder of the Catalan Socialist Party, he combined
pragamatism with a deliberately cultivated radical image derived
from his student days to serve as a bridge between the moderate 25X1
the US Embassy warns
motives will make him a prickly interlocutor.
of a power base within the PSOE will work to
Gonzalez's advantage if he decides to become in effect
his own Foreign Minister and let Moran set the tenor,
but not the substance, of Spanish foreign policy.
In our view the choice of Narcis Serra for the defense
portfolio is one of Gonzalez's better decisions. Serra
has been a moderate, popular, and effective Socialist
Mayor of Barcelona for the last three years. While he
has no substantive background in defense issues, the
US Embassy believes he is well regarded by both the
Defense Ministry and the Spanish military establish-
ment. His experience in administering Spain's second-
largest city will stand him in good stead if the PSOE
decides to reform Spain's antiquated military struc-
ture. As Defense Minister we believe he would exer-
cise amoderating influence within the government,
maintain good relations with the military, and culti-
vate US contacts. Because he appears to have a
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Cambio Media
Minister of Finance, Economy, and Commerce Miguel Boyer
Salvador, 43, has been a friend of Felipe Gonzalez's since their
student days. A leading rightwing socialist, he has dominated the
party's economic apparatus for over seven years. During the past
decade, he has been a research director and administrator at the
National Institute of Industry, head of planning for the govern-
ment-owned chemical company, a deputy in the Cortes, and a staff
Ministry also controls the Bank of Spain. Boyer's
closest ally in the Cabinet will probably be Minister of
Industry Carlos Solchaga, a good friend who enjoys
similar ties to the financial and industrial establish-
ment.
In our view the authority of the Boyer-Solchaga
tandem will be somewhat diluted by the presence in
the Cabinet of Labor Minister Joaquin Almunia and
Communications and Transportation Minister Enri-
que Baron. In our view, these two economists have
stronger party bases than Boyer and Solchaga, possess
closer ties to the socialist UGT labor union, and lack
intimate connections with the business world. Accord-
ing to press reports, Almunia, and to a lesser degree
Baron, have excellent rapport with Alfonso Guerra.
This has led some commentators to speculate that
intra-Cabinet strife, pitting the more leftist Guerra-
Almunia-Baron trio against the more moderate Gon-
zalez-Boyer-Solchaga grouping, could hamper formu-
lation and implementation of the government's
policies.
We believe, however, that the conflict is more a
matter of personal rivalry and political style than a
serious disagreement over substantive policy issues.
Almunia was in charge of drafting the PSOE's eco-
nomic electoral platform-a realistic and moderate
er sa~rausm
An experienced economist with the Banks of Spain and Vizcaya,
Carlos Solchaga Catalan, 38, is Minister of Industry and Energy in
the new socialist government. Before assuming his current position,
he had served in the national assembly as congressional deputy for
Navarra and as spokesman for the Basque socialist parliamentary
La Vanguardia
A leading PSOE economic spokesman, Enrique Baron Crespo was a
Socialist deputy for Madrid since 1977 before taking over the
transport and communications portfolio in the Gonzalez govern-
ment. US Embassy officials consider him one of his party's most
important parliamentarians. Baron, 38, is aParis-trained lawyer,
document which rigorously opposed mass nationaliza-
tions and quick reflation as a cure for unemployment.
Although Almunia and Guerra probably are some-
what to the left of Gonzalez and Boyer, we think that
the close friendship between Boyer and the Prime
Minister, and Solchaga's newfound prestige within
the party-the US Embassy feels that he has eclipsed
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Cambio Media
Joaquin Almunia Amann, 34, the new Minister of Labor and Social
Security, is a former economics expert for the socialist UGT labor
union. He has served as PSOE national secretary for labor union
policy (1979-81) and for research and planning (1981-82). He is
considered to be a moderate socialist, but is not generally associated
La Vanguardia
An experienced municipal politician, Jose Barrionuevo, 40, has
received the interior portfolio in the Gonzalei government. US
Embassy officials report that he is a tough, effective administrator
and is not regarded as an ideologue. He describes himself as a social
democrat. He has served as Second Deputy Mayor of Madrid since
Baron as PSOE parliamentary spokesman for eco-
nomic affairs-will assure that moderate solutions are
adopted, at least during the government's initial
phases. Over the longer term, alively-and possibly
divisive-debate on the advisibility of more radical
curatives could develop if Boyer's mild prescriptions
fail.
La Vanguards
The new Minister of Territorial Administration, 36-year old Tomas
de la Quadra-Salcedo, is best known for his work on the Parliamen-
tary Commission's autonomy reports-which recommended curb-
ing the scope and pace of regional devolution-in 1981. A human
rights advocate, he was a lawyer in a prominent private firm before
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autonomy issues-have been made with more regard
to professional competence than to party political
standing. Justice Minister Fernando Ledesma is a
much respected jurist and political independent whc
in our view will zealously guard his ministry from 25X1
political manipulation. Interior Minister Jose Barrio-
nuevo, aMadrid municipal official, has managed the
capital's police force-experience which should provf25X1
useful in coordinating Spain's sometimes fractious
rI'erritorial Administration, the ministry
charged with coordinating Spain's complex experi-
ment in regional devolution, will be headed by Madrid
lawyer and PSOE deputy Tomas de la Quadra- 25X1
Salcedo. Like Ledesma and Barrionuevo, De la Qua-
dra-Salcedo emerged from a Christian Democratic
and Catholic syndicalist milieu. He attained promi-
nence in 1981 when he participated in drafting pend-
ing legislation that could limit the extent of regional
autonomy. We believe that his appointment could
signal that the PSOE will take a relatively hard line
concerning the need to trim and rationalize the
regional autonomy structure-which may strain the
Justice, Interior, and Territorial Administration
Appointments to these sensitive posts-responsible for
dealing with the contentious terrorism and regional
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Comes Genera!
Ernest Lluch, Minister of Health and Consumer Affairs, is a
respected labor economist and finance expert. Long active in
Catalan regional politics, Lluch is nevertheless identified with the
Madrid-oriented faction of the PSC-PSOE and has ties to the
UGT. A deputy to the Cortes since 1977, he was spokesman for the
party's none-too-satisfactory relations with moderate
regionalist forces in the Basque country and Catalo-
nia.
Social and Cultural Ministries
We believe the holders of the health, education, and
culture portfolios will play key roles in setting the tone
and public image of the new administration, as the
functions of their ministries impinge directly on the
everyday life of private citizens. It is in these areas
that the PSOE may, in our view, have an opportunity
to fulfill partially its pledge to work towards a more
egalitarian and just society without either massive
increases in public expenditures or fundamental re-
structuring of Spain's economic system.
fiscal constraints.
Health and Consumer Affairs Minister Ernest Lluch
has a reputation as a competent labor economist and
financial expert. He enjoys close ties to the socialist
UGT labor federation and the PSOE's national lead-
ership, although his standing within the Catalan
regional branch of the party-where he led an unsuc-
cessful opposition to more leftist and regionalist poli-
cies favored by regional leaders-has suffered recent-
ly. US officials feel that Lluch will work hard to
improve the quality and availability of health care
through practical reforms and with due respect for
!.a Vanguardia
Minister of Education and Science Jose Maria Maravall, 40,
believes that gradual social change can be brought about through
more equality of opportunity in education. Previously dean of the
school of sociology at the University of Madrid, he was educated at
Oxford University and spent nine years (1969-78) studying and
teaching in England. Although he received a position at the
University of Madrid in 1974, he was reluctant to return to Spain
until after Franco's death and the return of democracy seemed
In Ca!!e
Minister of Culture Francisco Javier Solana Madariaga, 40, is a
moderate socialist who has belonged to the party's executive
committee since 1976. A physicist who earned a Ph.D. in the
United States during 1964-71, he has taught at the University of
Madrid since the early 1970s. He is well liked within the party and
Gonzalez's selections for the culture and education
slots are particularly important, since confrontation
with the Church over educational reform and abortion
would quickly raise the level of political tension.
Education Minister and party theorist Jose Maria
Maravall is aself-proclaimed gradualist who has been
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pacitated.
accused by at least one PSOE radical of "de-Marxify-
ing" the party. Nevertheless, he has publicly promised
to revise the law governing relations between the
public and private-mostly Church-sponsored-edu-
cational systems in order to remove alleged handicaps
from the state sector. This task will require tact and
patience~ualities for which Maravall is not espe-
cially well known-if it is not to unite the Church and
the rightist parties against the socialist regime. Mara-
vall's colleague at the Ministry of Culture-Javier
Solana-faces a less formidable task. He is a US-
trained physicist and pragmatic politician who is
personally close to Gonzalez. The press has singled
him out as a man enjoying good relations with all the
PSOE's sectors-and thus as a possible successor to
Gonzalez if the Prime Minister were killed or inca-
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