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Document Creation Date: 
December 15, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 8, 2004
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Publication Date: 
April 25, 1979
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PDF icon CIA-RDP83B00100R000100020010-3.pdf259.91 KB
Approved For Relq $~i ba B00100ROW400020010-3 25 April 1979 MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution John J. Hicks Deputy Director, National Foreign Assessment Center SUBJECT Briefing of Dr. Brzezinski In the interest of keeping NFAC people informed, here is the outline I used yesterday to brief Dr. Brzezinski on NFAC's efforts to improve the quality of analysis. I'm glad to say that he'expressed approval that progress is being made. He also commented that many of our National Intelligence Estimates are well done and that they contain much analysis and intelligence of value. Please pass these comments on to the people in your charge. All of the above is CONFIDENTIAL { o n is s Attachment: As stated Distribution: 1 - D/OCR 1 - D/OCO 1 - D/OER 1 - D/OGCR 1 - D/OIA 1 - D/OPA C... I raj 25X1A 25X1 ,4 r. ~ ., 1 25 A_ pril 1~5 loo EXT rYP D6Yeh3Z'Y RL rIDN Approved For Release znNF ID Ti p100R000100020010-3 Approved For Relea2 O(l/MTP,S00100R000, x00020010-3 SUBJECT: Briefing of Dr. Brzezinski Distribution (continued) 1 - D/OSI 1 - D/OSR 1 - D/OWI 1 - NIO/AF ail - NIO/CH 1 - NIO/CF 1 - NIO/EA 1 - NIO/LA 1 - NIO/NESA 1 - NIO/NP 1 - NIO/PE 1 - NIO/SS 1 - NIO/USSR-WE 1 - NIO/W 1 - NIO/WE 1 - C/AS 1 - C/Admin Staff 1 - C/Cong. Supp. Staff 1 - C/Coord. Staff 1 - C/Plans $ Programs Staff 1 - C/R&E Staff 1 - C/SALT Supp. Staff 1 - CAR 1 - C/PPG 1 - Ex. Sec., Senior Review Panel 1 - Ex. Sec., Production Board 1 - NFAC 1 - MAG 1 - SA/D/NFAC 1 - NFAC Registry 1 - DD/NFAC Chrono 1 - JDG Chrono NFAC/~ jaf/4080 (25 April 79) CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2004/06/29 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000100020010-3 Approved For Release 2004/06/29 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000100020010-3 CONFIDENTIAL 25 April 1979 Improving the Quality of Analysis I. Responsiveness. A. National Intelligence Topics 1. We have completed a review of production re- sponsive to the Topics. A report has been forwarded to PRC(I) members. 2. We are updating the Current Topics. The up- dated version has been forwarded to PRC(I) members for approval. 3. We aim by August 1979 to develop the next Topics list and complete an annual assessment of the process. 1. Regular meetings between Bob Gates, NFAC, NIO, and State Department Officers. 2. Political intelligence working group--Aaron, Carlucci, and Newsom. 3. DCI's weekly meetings with the President, you, Vance, and Brown. C. The Review Panel provides advice and critical comment. D. Mechanisms to provide for anticipation and alterna- tive hypotheses. 1. The NIO/Warning has instituted the Alert Memo- randum, a vehicle to signal the Community's concern over potentially troubling situations and their implications for the US. An NFAC notice, Guidelines for Alert Memoranda, was issued on 12 March 1979. 2. To date, the following alert memorandum have been issued: CONFIDENTIAL 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/06/29 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000100020010-3 Approved For Release 2004gNMFqqg.RWWASOOROOUDO020010-3 Iran 29 Nov 1978 Iran 5 Dec 1978 Argentina-Chile: Beagle Channel Dispute 8 Dec 1978 China-Vietnam 5 Jan 1979 China-Vietnam-USSR 19 Jan 1979 Pakistan 8 Feb 1979 China-Vietnam-USSR 14 Feb 1979 Iran 1 Mar 1979 Lebanon 2 Mar 1979 Egypt-Libya 29 Mar 1979 3. Regional NIO meetings Aim is to sensitize Community to warning. NIOs meet with their Community counterparts to discuss potential situations inimical to US interests. -- Participants are encouraged to examine less likely as well as more likely outcomes of particular situations. 4. Charter for National Intelligence Warning System has been written and will be placed on NFIB agenda for May. Mission is to advise and assist DCI with regard to warning intelligence and to coordinate warning activities of the Community. -- Sets up Warning Working Group, chaired by NIO/W and made up of senior officers of DIA, NSA, CIA, INR, Office of Secre- tary of Defense, Collection Tasking Staff. -- NIO/W supervises Strategic Warning Staff, which prepared watch reports. 5. Two memoranda on "Selected International Trends" have been published. Their purpose is to highlight key trends that the DCI might want to bring to the attention of the President. Approved For Release 2qQ 7 6 J $'pA1L00100R000100020010-3 Approved For Relea 200401D)iUk61AOR000020010-3 26 February 1979 Zaire, Egypt-Libya, Morocco, USSR-India, Rhodesia, Turkey, El Salvador, Indonesia 3 April 1979 China-Vietnam, Kampuchea, Namibia, Italy, Malta, Nuclear Proliferation 6. We are starting an NFAC publication for al- ternative, off-beat views, an analyst-to- analyst publication to provide an additional avenue for expression of views. Editorial staffing is under way. IT. Quality Control A. DD/NFA's contribution--stress on analysis in depth. B. Review Panel providing critical review at key points in the process. C. The DD/NFA's Production Board is operating under the management of a newly appointed Executive Secretary (Bruce Clarke). Planning, scheduling and review of National Intelligence Estimates, Interagency Intel- ligence Memoranda, and other significant reports are now being accomplished through this mechanism. D. Expert Help From Outside 1. Roster of Consultants to NIOs. So far, ucon- 25X1 sultants have been cleared and engaged. Their expertise breaks down as follows: 25X1 Approved For Release 2WUiFiT - 8 D0100R000100020010-3 Approved For Release 2004CDQNIE)IUAORO 0020010-3 These consultants work closely with analysts. They meet with small groups several times a year to comment on work in progress, to help in concept forming stages, and to provide ad- ditional insights from their unique perspectives. 2. Scholars in Residence Noted analysts work with us for 1-2 years and then return to their former academic posts. They may also become the programs, as did 25X1A University). He completed a 2-year tour as a scholar-in-residence last August and has returned to teaching. He worked with us on questions of the Soviet suc- cession. I is now on board and working ?in the Office of Economic Re- search. His specialty is the Soviet economy. is working with the NIO for the USSR and Eastern Europe. His specialty is Soviet nationalities, but he is also helping with our language program. He has been with us since September. work on Soviet relations with states that 25X1 border the USSR. III. Long Term Efforts to Develop NFAC Capabilities A. During 1978, we conducted an inventory of our pro- duction capability. We found that there have been Approved For Release 20d t d I $b i OOR000100020010-3 Approved For Release 2004/06/29 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000100020010-3 CONFIDENTIAL three major forces at work on us, affecting our use of manpower resources: 1. Demands for short deadline responses have been steadily increasing. 2. Military analysis has increased in complexity, especially on arms control related matters for instance. 3. Economic pressures on and within America have increased demands for intelligence on foreign economies, energy, trade, and resources. The work of economists has also increased in com- plexity. B. These pressures have eroded our capabilities in certain areas. 1. The number and quality of the people who work on areas other than the USSR and China are thin in many places. 2. Demands for current intelligence continue to impinge on resources that otherwise could be applied to studied research and analysis, especially among our political and economic analysts. C. Deployment of Resources 1. We are developing priorities among countries, regions, and topics and we are keying our de- ployment and development of resources to those priorities. a. The priorities are derived from your feedback to us, the National Intelligence Topics, and guidance from others concern- ing area and topical interests of import to our Government. b. We are also at work on a dynamic personnel inventory of our analytical requirements, standards, and incentives. CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2004/06/29 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000100020010-3 Approved For Release 200 /M 10OR000100020010-3 w C.. t'fi iV YL lwmwl c. We are using the priorities and associated requirements to determine how many expert analysts are needed on specific areas and topics, how they can best be arranged, and where these resources will come from. D. Specific programs to strengthen expertise 1. We have established Senior Intelligence Specialist positions at the GS-15 and -16 level, providing career incentives and standards for analysts. 2. We are stepping up training of several kinds. a. Foreign languages. b. Foreign residence experiences. C. Analytical techniques and methodologies. d. Management and leadership. E. Physical support of the analytical process Project SAFE (Support for the Analyst's Files Environment) is a must program to help strengthen our production capabilities through automation of the flow, filing, search and retrieval of intelligence reporting. CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2004/06/29 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000100020010-3