NOTE(Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 79
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 4, 1980
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001c00200150001--8
STAT 1 Note to 11 from JHH, dtd 4 March 80
Transmitting "Threat Paper" for Presidential Brief
2 Form to D/S from CN, dtd 5 March 80
Subj: Request to speak at public meeting
3 Memo to NFAC Security from JHH, dtd 6 March 80
Subj: Request Authorization to Use Former Deputy Director INR on a
Classified Research Project (NFAC 1685-80)
4 Handwritten note to RL from JHH, dtd 7 March 80
Subj: Plans for seminars
STAT 5 Ltr to I from JHH, dtd 11 March 80
STAT
STAT 7
Subj: Soviet fisheries activities in South Pacific
Note to Evan Hineman from CN, dtd 12 March 80
Subj: List of travelers Othru remainder of fiscal year.
8 Memo to DDCI from JHH, dtd 17 March 80
.Subj: Proposed Consultants (NFAC 1938-80)
9 Memo to Distribution from JHH, dtd 17 March 80
Subj: Topics to be Discussed at the Warning Meeting (NFAC.1957-80)
STAT 10 Note tol from RT, dtd 19 March 1980
Subj: Candidate for a Cardinal Issue (NFAC 2103-80)
11 Ltr to Pres of the Center for Study of Presidency from JHH, dtd 19 March 80
Subj: Accepting invitation to participate in seminar
12 Memo to D/P from JHH, dtd 19 March 80
Subj: Proposed Study by Individual Contract (NFAC 2033-80)
13 Memo to NIC Admin from JHH, dtd 19 March 80
Subj: Approval of Partial Payment for Personal Services Performed
STAT byl (NFAC 2034-80)
STAT 14
15 Thrust Paper for DCI from JHH, dtd 21 March 80
Subj: ASEAN Reactions to Events in Indochina and Afghanistan
16 Note to Walt Elder from JHH, dtd 24 March 80
Subj: Transmitting Talking Points to NIE 56-1-80
17 Memo to DCI from JHH, dtd 28 March 80
Subj: Warning Assessment: China-East Asia Pacific
25X1 18
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 pproved For Release-2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-
ti
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
4 March 1980
NOTE FOR:
As you know discussed
your
requirement fora "threat paper" on the
effects of SRV operations . Kampuchea on
ASEAN with We thought
Stan was going to provide us with a background
item, but as you can see he responded in full.
"e believe Stan does a good job in presenting
the appropriate arguments, and have nothing
to add. We particularly like his point about
a changing perception of the threat in
Malaysia and Indonesia.
`'NIO/China-EAP
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R00020015
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fo,lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
Dear Mr. Heginbotham:
I am pleased you will be able to attend our Symposium on
Japan on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the program is attached.
Please confirm with
by COB 1 April.
Sincerely,
hour attendance ST
Assistant NIO for
China-East Asia Pacific
Attachment
As Stated
Mr. Earland Heginbotham
Director General (Designate)
Foreign Commercial Service
Room 7721
Department of Commerce
14th Street Between Constitution & E Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20230
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approved Foe lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001is 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I am pleased that you are able to attend our Symposium
on Japan on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the program is attached.
Please confirm with
by COB 1 April.
your attendance
Assistant NIO for
China-East Asia Pacific
Attachment
As Stated
Ms. Joanna Shelton
Office of. International Monetary
Affairs
Room 5058
Main Treasury
15th and Penn Ave., NW
Washington, D.C. 20220
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fcelease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B00V 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
25 March 1980
I am pleased that you will be able to attend our Symposium
on Japan on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the program is attached.
Please confirm with
by COB 1 April.
Martin Packman
c/o INR
Room 6535
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Sincerely,
Assistant NIO for China
East Asia Pacific
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fo elease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001is 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I am delighted that you have accepted our invitation to
attend and participate in our Symposium on Japan on 10 and 11
April. We would like to extend two additional invitations
to your colleagues on the Desk for distribution as you deem
appropriate.
Please provide the names of those attending to
]by COB 1 April.
Attachment
Proposed Program
(3 copies)
Alan D. Romberg
Director for Japanese Affairs
EA/J
Room 4210
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fo lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001or 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I am most pleased you will be a participant in our
Symposium on Japan on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the program
is attached. Bob tells me you and Bill Breer will work as
a team on the initial presentation, and I feel confident we
will be off to a strong start.
Please confirm your participation with
bby COB 1 April.
Colonel John Endicott
AF/XOP
Room 4 D 1034
The Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Foslease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001, 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I am pleased you will attend and participate in our
Symposium on Japan on 10 and 11 April. I would appreciate
it if you would also extend the invitation to Ron Morris.
by COB 1 April
Sincer y,
Attachment
Proposed Program
(2 copies)
Mr. William Breer
Chief, Northeast Asia Division
Department of Intelligence-and Research
Room 8840
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fo0lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001p 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Dear Col. Harvey:
. I am pleased you will be able to attend our Symposium on
Japan. Bob tells me of your interest and work on the security
issue, and I expect you will find the exchange of views on
politics and economies worthwhile as well.
Please confir your attendance with
by COB 1 April.
Attachment
Proposed Program
Colonel Thomas H. Harvey, Jr.
Office of Joint Chiefs of Staff
Far East/South Asia Division
Room 2 E 923
The Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20330
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fo.lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B0011000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I am pleased that you are able to attend our Symposium
on Japan on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the program is
attached.
Please confirm with
by COB 1 April.
Attachment
As Stated
William E. Barreda
Acting Director, Office of
International Trade
Room 4428
Main Treasury
Fifteenth and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20220
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 STAT
Approved FoIV lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001p 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Dear Andy:
I want to confirm the invitation to our Symposium on Japan
on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the program is attached.
Please phone y COB 1 April to
confirm your attendance.
Sincerely,
Assistant NIO for
China-East Asia Pacific
Attachment
Proposed Program
Mr. Andrew Osterman
EA/Economic Policy
Room 4206
Department of State
Washington, D.C. 20520
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fo.lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001MQ0R0A1W001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
STAT FROM
National Intelligence Officer
for China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT National Intelligence Council's
Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting research and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to five DIA officers
to be allocated as you may determine. of
your Agency informally suggested the following as possible
participants:
Please confirm withi
KAAAT by COB 1 April the names of those officers who will
attend.
ST
ST
STI
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Foolease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001000200150001-8
NFAC 2066-80
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office of Political Analysis
n intelligence Utticer for
China-East Asia Pacific
: Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to three OPA officers
to be allocated as you may determine. Please confirm with
by COB 1 April the names of those officers
who will attend.
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Foslease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001p 000200150001-8
NFAC 2067-80
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office of Economic Research
FROM .
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT : Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to three OER officers
to be allocated may determine. Please confirm with
by COB 1 April the names of those officers
Wnu will en .
Si
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Fcelease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83BO01(F 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
21 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office Strategic Research
STAT FROM
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT : Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to two OSR officers
to be allocated as You may determine. Please confirm with
WHO will attend. by COB 1 April the names of those officers
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Foe lease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001O04 9
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 March 1980
STAT
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office of Imagery Analysis
FROM
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT : Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to one OIA officer
to be allocated may determine. Please confirm with
STAT by COB 1 April the name of the officer
who will attend.
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved FIMelease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B00 MW000200150001-8
AC 2070-80
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 March 1980
STAT
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, DDO/East Asia Division
China-East Asia Pacific
National Intelligence Officer for
: Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to two EA officers
to be allocated as you may determine. Please confirm with
STAT Who will attend. by COB 1 April the names of those officers
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 NFAC 2071-80
Approved F.elease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83BO01W000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office of Geographic and
Cartographic Research
STAT FROM
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT : Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. 1 would like to extend an invitation to one OGCR officer
to be allocated as you may determine. Please confirm with
STAT by COB 1 April the name of the officer
who w i l l attend.
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved F.elease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83BOOVO MMIS0001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Office of Central Reference
FROM
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT : Symposium on Japan, 10 and 11 April 1980
1. We have organized a symposium on Japan at the Madison
Hotel on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the proposed program is
attached. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist analysts and desk officers from the Community
in projecting reserach and analysis on Japan over the next few
years.
2. I would like to extend an invitation to one OCR officer
to be allocated as you may determine. Please confirm with
STAT who will attend. by COB 1 April the name of the officer
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved Foelease 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00,R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I want to let you know about the National Intelligence
Council's Symposium on Japan on 10 and 11 April which is
outlined in the attached program.
We would like to have I if he is
recovered) from your office to join us and have also extended
an invitation to
Please have
COB 1 April 1980.
Attachment
Proposed Program
J. Foster Collins
Special Assistant to the Secretary
(National Security)
Room 4324
Department of Treasury
Fifteenth Street and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20220
by
ST
ST
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 STAT
STAT
NFAC 2075-80
Approved Foelease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83BO0Ir 000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officer
for China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT Symposium on Japan
1. Mindful of yours and Sid's keen interest in the research
effort on Japan, I would like to extend to each of you an
invitation to our Symposium on 10 and 11 April. Copies.of the
program are attached.
2. Please phone
attendance by COB 1 Apri.
Attachment
Proposed Program
(2 copies)
Ito confirm your
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 ~~CC 226-
Approved FSelease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83BOOR00020700500001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officer
for China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT : Symposium on Japan
1. Attached is a copy of the proposed program for our
Symposium on Japan. We are looking forward to having you with
us for these sessions.
2. Please confirm with
1 April your attendance.
Iby COB
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Attachment
As Stated
 Approved ,eiease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B00?R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
We are delighted you will be able to attend the National
Intelligence Council's Symposium on Japan on 10 and 11 April.
A copy of the program is attached.
Please confirm your attendance with
by COB 1 April.
Sincerely,
Assistant NIO tor
Attachment
Proposed Program
Mr. Donald Westmore
Staff Member to Senator William Roth
Room 3215
Dirksen Senate Office Building
First Street and Constitution Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20515
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved F.elease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B00 V 0 b1ft001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, DDO/East Asia Division
National Intelligence Officer
for China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT Travel to the Far East by
1, my counterpart in DIA, is traveling
to the Far East. He will be in
Charles is a good and helpful contact of ours and
I would appreciate it if you would ask
on at least one previous occasion.
Distribution
1 i Addressee
- NIO/China-EAP Chrono
- NFAC Reg
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved F.elease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001,000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I would like to extend an invitation to you to attend
the National Intelligence Council's Symposium on Japan on
10 and 11 April. A copy of the program is attached.
Please confirm with
your attendance.
by COB 1 April
Assistant NIO for
China-East Asia Pacific
Attachment
As Stated
Mr. Norman Glick
TFC Staff/IEP
Room 3005
Department of Commerce
14th Street Between Constitution & E Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20230
ST
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved F.elease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83BO01W000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Dear Gus:
I am pleased you are able to attend the National Intelligence
Council's Symposium on Japan on 10 and 11 April. A copy of the
program is attached.
Please confirm with
your attendance.
Sincerely,
by COB 1 April
ST
Assistant NIO for
China-East Asia Pacific
Attachment
As Stated
F.J. Kline
TFC Staff/IEP
Room 3005
Department of Commerce
14th Street Between Constitution & E Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20230
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved ,eiease 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B001#~00mb1a0(~108~~~,
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
STAT MEMORANDUM FOR:
STAT
FROM : I
National me igence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT Symposium on Japan
1. Mindfull of SRP's concern with the research effort on
Japan and your own personal interest in that country, I would like
to extend to the SRP an invitation to our symposium on 10 and 11
April. A copy of the program is attached.
2. The intent is to use the conference and report taken
therefrom to assist Community analysts and desk officers in
projecting research and analysis on Japan over the next few years.
I wish it were possible to extend the invitation to all members
of the SRP but for a variety of reasons we have had to limit the
billets to one, to be allocated among the SRP members as you may
determine.
0 1f11 3. Please note I uis on the program. I suggest
STAT I ight find reactions to his presentation and Session III
on the security outlook of interest.
4. Please confirm which portions of you or your
colleagues will attend with
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approv,or Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83109?200?88415$801-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
19 March 1980
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
STAT FROM
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT Request that You Participate in Our
Symposium on Japan
1. Action Requested: That you make opening remarks (which
need not be formal or lengthy) to our meeting on Japan at 1000 on
10 April and to attend the reception at 1700 that evening at the
Madison Hotel.
2. Background: The purpose of the meeting is to engage Japan
analysts and desk officers from the Community and experts from
outside in an examination of issues that should be researched and
analyzed over the next few years. I think you will find the list
of outside participants impressive and well qualified. The
symposium takes a first and significant step toward highlighting
the NICKs role in sponsoring Community research on national
intelligence issues, and your participation would contribute
significantly to the affirmation of this mission.
3. Recommendation: That you participate in the program as
suggested . We will provide talking points for your remarks.
.Attachment.
Proposed Program
STA
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 AC 2065-80 L:.za
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
STAT
National Intelligence Officer for
China-East Asia Pacific
SUBJECT Request that You Attend Reception in
Connection with Symposium on Japan
1. Action Requested: That you attend a reception on 10 April
at 1700 at the Madison Hotel, which follows the first day of a
National Intelligence Council symposium on Japan.
2. Background: The purpose of the symposium is to engage
Japan analysts and desk officers from the Community and experts
from outside in an examination of issues that should be researched
and analyzed over the next few years. I think you will find the
outside participants impressive and well qualified. The symposium
takes a first and significant step toward highlighting the NIC's
role in sponsoring Community research on national intelligence
issues. Your participation at the reception would contribute
significantly to the affirmation of this mission. You are of
course welcome to attend any of the actual discussion sessions.
3. Recommendation: That you attend the reception on
the evening of 10 April.
Attachment
Proposed Program
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
STAT
 ? ?FAC 1938-80
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
STAT
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
SUBJECT Symposium on Japan
1. Action Requested: That you authorize me to conduct the
symposium on Japan on 10 and 11 April.
2. Background: The purpose of the meeting is to engage
Japan analysts and desk officers from the Community and experts
from outside in an examination of issues that should be researched
and analyzed over the next few years. The symposium takes a first
and significant step toward highlighting the NIC's role in
sponsoring Community research on national intelligence issues.
3. The estimated cost of this symposium is broken down
as follows: Room Rental -- $250; Luncheons and Reception $1400;
and Travel, Per Diem and Consulting fees -- $7200.
4. I intend to invite the Director to make opening remarks
to the conference on the morning of 10 April and to attend the
reception along with the Deputy Director that evening. I would
be pleased to have you attend all or any portions of the conference.
A copy of the program is attached.
5. Recommendation: That you approve this request.
-APPROVED :
STAT
2r] PR 1998
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment Date
Approved For Release 2005/0-1/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
Dear Mr.. Givens:
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us on the
10th. A copy of the program and accounting details are
attached.
Please contact me or rom my office should
questions on the conference develop. We booked a reservation
at the Madison in your name for the night of the 10th.
Mr. William L. Givens
President
Twain Associates, Inc.
Box 220
Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts 02181
STA
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-
 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us. A
copy of the program and accounting details are attached.
STAT
Please contact me or from my office should
questions on the conference develop. We will be pleased
to make hotel reservations in your name on request; as a
matter of convenience we will be using the Madison Hotel
unless you prefer some other arrangement.
Sincer +,
Professor Ezra F. Vogel
Harvard University
Council on East Asian Studies
Archibald Cary Coolidge Hall
1737 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83, 100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us. A
copy of the program is attached.
Please contact me or from my office should
questions on the conference develop.
Sincer ~,
Dr. Gaston Sigur
Director, Institute for Sino-Soviet
Studies
George Washington University
Washington, D.C. 20052
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOQ100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to the possibility of having
you with us. A copy of the program is attached.
Please contact me or
from my office should
questions on the conference develop.
Honorable Robert W. Komer
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Room 4 E 830
The Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20301
STA
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approve 0r Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83134100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us.
Acopy of the program and accounting details are attached.
Please contact me or from my office should
questions on the conference develop. We will be pleased
to make hotel reservations in your name on request; as a
matter of convenience we will be using the Madison Hotel
unless you prefer some other arrangement.
Stlcerely,
Kent Calder
Harvard University
1737 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138
STAT
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 'Approve *r-Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B.00100R00.0200150001-8
0
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
Dear Dean Packard:
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us. A copy of
the program and accounting details are attached.
Please contact me or from my office should
questions on the conference develop.
Sincerely,
George Packard
School of Advanced International Studies
1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP831100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us.
A copy of the program and accounting details are attached.
STAT
questions on the conference develop.
from my office should
Sincerely,
STAT
Philip Trezise
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP831100R000200150001-8
I was disappointed to learn that you can not be with
us on the 11th of April. Thought I would send along a
copy of the program anyway in the hope that we might entice
you away from Chicago should a break in your schedule
develop. I am sure the discussion would benefit from your
insights on Japan and the "wise men's" activities.
STA
Robert S. Ingersoll
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approve 0r Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83 00R000200150001-8
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us. A copy of
the program and accounting details are attached.
Please contact me or rom my office should
questions on the conference develop. Bob tells me you will be
staying with friends and will not require hotel reservations.
Sincerely,
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83 100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us on the
11th. A copy of the program and accounting details are
attached.
Please contact me or Bob Tierney from my office should
questions on the conference develop.
Sincer,4,:!-r,1y,
STAT
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP831100R000200150001-8
Dear Ed:
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us and was
delighted to hear you were comfortable with the program. A
copy of the program and accounting details are attached. We
will be sending along biographies on the participants in a
week or two as you requested.
Please contact me or from my office should
questions develop. We have made hotel reservations in your
name at the Madison for the night of the 10th.
Edwin 0. Reischauer
Harvard University
Room 318
1737 Cambridge Street
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83E100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us. A copy of
the program and accounting details are attached.
STAT
Please contact me or
conference develop.
Professor Nathaniel Thayer
should questions on the
Sincer,g1y,
School of Advanced International Studies
1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP831000R000200150001-8
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us. A
copy of the program is attached.
Please contact me or
the conference develop.
Nicholas Platt
Deputy Assistant Secretary
for East Asia and Pacific Affairs
Room 4 E 827
The Pentagon
Washington, D.C. 20301
should questions on
STAT
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approve 0r Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP831100R000200150001-8
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us. A copy of the
program and accounting details are attached.
Please contact me or from my office should
questions on the conference develop.
sincerely,
Dr. Lawrence Krause
Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP831900R000200150001-8
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us. A copy of the
program and accounting details are attached.
Please contact me or from my office should
questions on the conference develop. We booked a reservation at
the Madison in your name for the night of the 10th.
Professor Gerald L. Curtis
Columbia University
New York, New York 10027
STA
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver. Release 2005101/06CIA-RDP83.00.R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be held
at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April. I am
looking forward very much to having you with us. A copy of the
program is attached.
Please contact me or hould questions on the
conference develop.
Donald Gregg
National Security Council Staff
Room 300 1/2
Executive Office Building
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83 100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
This is to confirm that our meeting on Japan will be
held at the Madison Hotel in Washington on 10 and 11 April.
I am looking forward very much to having you with us. A
copy of the program and accounting details are attached.
from my office should
questions on the conference develop.
Jack B.. Button
Executive Director, Japan-Unite tates
Economic Relations Group
11 DuPont Circle, N,J
Room 802
Washington, D.C. 20036
ST
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approver Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP834V 00R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
I want to express my appreciation for your response to our
invitation to address participants at a symposium on Japan in April.
As I noted over the phone, our intent is to use the conference
and the report taken therefrom to assist Community analysts and
desk officers in projecting lines of research and analysis on Japan
over the next few years.
Please note from the attached program that you are scheduled
to speak during lunch on 11 April. I am sure your comments will
inspire a good deal.of interest and hope you might allow time to
take a few questions. Clearly, your views and your assessment of
how the Congress would characterize the status and prospects for
the alliance with Japan will contribute in an important way to the
quality of the discussion.
Attachment
As Stated
The Honorable Lester L. Wolff
House of Representatives
Washington, D.C. 20515
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approve or Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP830100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
I want to express my appreciation for your response to our
invitation to address participants at a symposium on Japan in April.
As you can see from the draft agenda, our intent is to use the
conference and the report taken therefrom to assist Community
analysts and desk officers in projecting lines of research and
analysis on Japan over the next few years.
Please note from the attached program that you are scheduled
to speak during lunch on 10 April. I am sure your comments will
inspire a good deal of interest and hope you might allow time
to take a few questions. Clearly, your judgments on how our
relationship with Japan should evolve, and your insights on what
we should and should not expect from Tokyo over the next few years
will affect the quality of the presentations and discussion to
follow.
STAT
Attachment
As Stated
The Honorable Richard C. Holbrooke
Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East
Asian and Pacific Affairs
Room 6206
Department of State
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approvefor Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83V 00R000200150001-8
Symposium on Japan
Trends and Prospects Through 1985
Sponsored By
National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Officer for China-East Asia Pacific
Moderated By
Ambassador Edwin 0. Reischauer
10-11 April 1980
Board Room, Madison Hotel
Washington, D.C.
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approvesor Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83V 00R000200150001-8
10 April
0930-1000
Registration
Session I
1000-1010
Introduction and Overview
1010-1200
A Review of the Seventies -- The Current Framework
Security -- Japanese perceptions and attitude
toward global and East Asian security environment.
Security policy formulation in Japan; key actors,
constraints.*
Presenter: To be identified
Economic -- Japan's adjustment in low growth,
high energy prices, and protectionism abroad.*
Presenter: Lawrence Krause
Brookings Institute
Political -- A status report on the LDP and
party leadership. Changing relations between
the opposition and ruling parties. The triad --
party, bureaucracy, business -- intact or
breaking down?*
Presenter: Nathaniel Thayer
SAIS
Discussants -- Nicholas Platt, Ezra Vogel, Kent Calder
and George Packard
Lunch
1200-1330 The US-Japan Relationship -- Director and goals in
the 1980s. Speaker: Richard Holbrooke
Session II
1400-1630 Economic Outlook -- Trends and outlook for the
Japanese economy through 1985. Evolution of trade,
monetary and industrial policy. Integration with
World's advanced economies. Points of tension with
the US.
Presenter: William Givens
Twain Associates, Inc.
Discussants -- Jack Button and Lawrence Krause.
1700 Reception
*20 PiinutApAF #iRekease 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 STAT
Approver Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83Bf 00R000200150001-8
11 April
Session III*
0930-1130 Security Outlook -- Examination of issues and
actors that are likely to shape Japanese security
policy over the next five years. Implications
for the US-Japan security arrangement, and US
global defense posture.
Presenter: Richard Sneider
Discussants -- U. Alexis Johnson, Alan Romberg,
and Robert Komer (tentative)
1130-1200 Return to Madison (we will provide transportation)
Lunch
1200-1330 Japan -- The view from Congress.
Speaker: Congressman Lester Wolff
Session IV
1400-1600
Political outlook -- How will the Japanese
leadership adjust and respond to the challenges
of the 1980s. Hazards and opportunities for the
US.
Presenter: Gerald Curtis
Columbia University
Discussants -- Nathaniel Thayer and Don Gregg
1600-1630 Summary and Review -- Ambassador Reischauer
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 ^
SECRET
ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
FROM:
E%TEN5ION .
NO.
Assistant NI0/China-EAP
DATE
5 March 1980
TO. (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whoa--
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
INITIALS
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
NI0/China-EAP
2.
Chairman, National
Intelligence Council
.
2 - For your approval
3.
4.
Coordinator for Academic
Relations
4 - Concurrence
5.
6.
Director of Security
4 E 60
6 - Concurrence
7.
8.
7E62
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
INTERNAL
'UNCLASSIFIED U
SE ONLY ^ ?NFIDENTIAL
3--62 61 USEDIT10y PREVIOUS
dSf iRftlleas 2 o~i9 i66R blAtbPB oM ool5o?I-8UNCLASSIFIED
 Approv or Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83 100R000200150001-8
REQUEST TO SPEAK, PRESENT A PAPER, OR PARTICIPATE IN A PUBLIC MEETING
1. Title of Presentation E Nature of Meeting:
"Current Political Developments in the P?C" Part of pannel presentation
in conference run by Harvard Faurbank Center
2. Name of Institution/Title of Meeting:
Harvard University; "US-China Trade: Limits and Potential"
3. Location: Little Rock
A
k
,
r
ansas
4. Time: 28 March 1980
STA
S. Name and Position of NIC Requester:
6.
7. Dollar Cost to NIC (approx): None STAT
8. .Unclassified (Delete one; if classified
indicate level
)
,
.
9. Other Pertinent Information:
Conference one of series run by Fairbark (7 over past tvWo years) on vast
Asian subjects. Primary object to diffuse k owledge/understanding on topics
of interest to distinguished members of community in various parts of the co.rntry
(in this case south/southwest),
APPROVE:
(Chairman, National Intelligence Council Date
CONCUR:
(Coordinator for Academic Relations) (Date
Director of Security Date
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MENORA'NTDU I FOR: Security Officer, National Foreign
Assessment Center
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
SUBJECT Request Authorization to Use Former Deputy
Director INR on a Classified Research Project
1. I wish to use former Deputy Director
INR, to summarize research on done by
and sponsored by :orner %IO
-Tretired from the Forei-n ri
2. Based on your verbal authorization, I made
research notes, which are classified SEC-3-ET, available to
0 .
or his review. He expects to let me have his ideas
on the feasibility and duration of the project early next week
after which I intend to formalize the arrangement through our
Admin Officer.
Distribution
1 - Addressee
1 - NIC/Admin
2 - NIO/China-EAP
1 - NFAC Reg
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approve r Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83W p0R000200150001-8
All Regional NIOs jLA
You will recall that you are each required to
conduct two seminars a year with outside talent
on important topics of your choice. I note for
instance that NI0/CH-EAP is organizing one on
Japan in April. Please let me know what your plans
are for the rest of the year.
STAT
Richard Lehman
C/NIC
Data 7 March 1980
USE PR
Ki.i5 101 EDITICNS IOUS
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
fi t
% jr
 Approved For lease 200%V&%%: CIA-RDP83B001W 00200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Dear Evelyn:
Herewith is the study on Soviet fisheries activities in the
South Pacific which you wanted way back last December. I am afraid
it is a bit thin, but I suppose this represents the sum total of
whatever new information we have obtained since the previous study
on this same
owever, to go more deeply into this subject
MIgnt require more resources than we care to commit at this time.
apologies for the delay -- she has been assi ned
to the g
I am sure that she would be happy to
respond directly to any further questions you might have.
Warm regards.
Evelyn Colbert
Deputy Assistant Secretary
Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs
Room 6208
Department of State
Approved For Release 2O61106 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Next 12 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approved For Release 2005101/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R00020015000
NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT CENTER
NOTE FOR:
concern. We intend, however, to let
go if State requests him.
We appreciate your comments and
R. E. Hineman
DD/NFAC
II
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R0002001500q
 ? ? "*OUTING AND TRANS?AL SUP
T0;
((Name, office symbol, room number,
building, Agency/Post)
DD/NFA
Initials
Date
Z
A
File
Note an Return
proval
For Clearance
Per Conversation
Requested
For Correction
Prepare Reply
irculate
For Your Information
See Me
mment
Investigate
Signature
Coordination
Justify
DO NOT use this form as a RECORD of approvals, concurrences, disposals,
clearances, and similar actions
NIO/China-EAP
5041-102 OPTIONAL FORM 41 (Rev. 7-76)
s} U.S. G.P.O. 1977-241-530/3090 Prescribed by GSA
FPMR (41 CFR, 101-11.206
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Appr d For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP B001002QJ''"
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
. Proposed Consultant
1. Action Re uested: That you approve my recommendation
to use I las a consultant on a one-time basis.
3. The task I have in mind for is to compose a summary
from extensive research on nd policies
accomplished last rear b at the request
of my predecessor, eels comfortable with
the project and I am confident he will do a good job. The
research is classified SECRET.
4. Recommendation: That you approve the use of
as a consultant on a one-time basis.
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Date
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 SECRET
Appr.d For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP 0010OR000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC. 5-7- Y o
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
25X1
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
SUBJECT Topics to be Discussed at the Warning Meeting
on 19 March 1980
Following are topics which will be discussed at our
Warning Meeting on 19 March:
China
Deng Xiaoping victory at plenum: how permanent, does it
create problems, significance for foreign policy
Sino-Soviet border: developments on either side;
significance
Vietnam: any change in indicators; has dry season
progressed to point where Chinese attack can be ruled
out?
Afghan crisis: impact on Chinese perceptions; long-term
consequences, likely Chinese response; impact on relations
with US
Southeast Asia
Impact on Thai government change on current foreign policy;
implications for China; for Vietnam; for US. Consequences
of changes in refugee policy. How stable is new government?
Vietnam-Kampuchean border: current situation; future
Vietnamese tactics; how strong is DK? Prospects for other
resistance groups. Likelihood of new famine. Signs that
Heng Samrin "government" functions?
Indonesia: how real rumors of recognition of China? Consequences
if it happens.
Approved For ReleaM2805/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Appr0d For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP,00100R000200150001-8
Please LDX to: 17 March 1980
Mr. Robert Drexler
Director, INR/REA From:
Room 8840 NIO/China-EAP
Department of State 7 E 62, CIA Hqs
632-1338 I
Cdr. Robert Cyboron
NAV OPS
Room 5 B 670
The Pentagon
697-0313
Major Wally Astor
AF/INE
Room 4 B 136
The Pentagon
694-5261
Col. Jack Churchill
HQDA (DAMI)-FI
Room 2 E 473
The Pentagon
697-3398
Mr. Arthur Long
Room 4324
Main Treasury
566-5988
Director, SWS
Room 1 C 925
The Pentagon
695-0031
Approved For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B0,
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Appr9d For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP,00100R000200150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Thank you for your letter of 11 March informing me of the
part I will play in the 12 April schedule. I am looking forward
very much to this session and I am sure it will prove to be
very stimulating.
Concerning your suggestion that I might wish to offer a
commentary on the address by General Jones, I am sure that my
comments would be rather redundant -- as an active member of the
US Government, I could hardly add to the points General Jones
would be making. Perhaps you might wish to have someone who is
not part of the US Government assume this role.
I will see if I can obtain a photo for you.
R. Gordon Hoxie
President of the Center for
the Study of the Presidency
926 Fifth Avenue
New York, New York 10021
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 ApprJ For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP:QA19?00150001-8
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Personnel
THROUGH
FROM
SUBJECT
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
Proposed Study by Individual Contract
1. Action Requested: Approval to arrange for
as an individual contractor to perform a task of value to NFAC
.
It is estimated that the work will re uire approximately 15-20 working
d
ays at a cost of
3. The task I have in mind for s to compose a summary
from extensive research on policies
accomplished last year by at the
request of my predessor, feels comfortable with
the project and I am con i ent e will do a good Job- Tlip h
is classified SECRET.
and retains his clearances in that connection.
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
4. Recbmmendation: It is recommended that negotiation of
an individual contract with for
performance of the task described be approved.
Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment Date
Chairman, National Intelligence Council Date
Distribution:
1 each - D/P
DD/NFA
C/NIC
CAR
AO/NIC
NIIO/China-EAP Chrono
NIO/China-EAP File
NFAC REG
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approved For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP83B0( 1 Rj%~9.%*00",
. 9
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
MEMORANDUM FOR: Admin Officer, National Intelligence Council
National Intelligence Officer for China-EAP
SUBJECT : Approval of Partial Payment for Personal
Services Performed byl
REFERENCE . Our Memorandum to Director of Personnel,
dated 19 March 1980, Subject: Proposed
Study by Individual Contract (NFAC 2033-80)
1. I uis currently engaged in the project described
in reference. He should complete most of the work in March
although the final draft is not due until the first week in April.
2. I request authority to respond to his proposal for
payment in two installments. He wishes to be paid an initial
payment of E~n March to gain eligibility for a quarter of
social security with the balance due in April on receipt of the
final draft. I knowl personally and am confident he
intends to honor his responsibilities under his arrangement with
us in full.
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 STAT Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Next 4 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Apprrd For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RD 9 010OR000200150001-8
China-EAP
PA/EAP
21 March 1980
ASEAN REACTIONS TO EVENTS IN INDOCHINA AND AFGHANISTAN
1. ASEAN has shown remarkable unity over past few years in
face of crisis in Indochina. ASEAN's main concern now: preserve
unity as result of changing -- and sometimes differing -- perceptions
of threat to regional security.
2. ASEAN states collectively now view Soviets, plus Soviet-
backed Vietnam, as emerging, alternative threat. Recent ASEAN-EEC
Foreign Ministers meeting communique strongly worded at ASEAN
insistence: Specifically links Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to
Vietnamese invasion of Kampuchea and thus stronger wording than
ASEAN-sponsored resolution in UN last Fall.
3. However, Malaysia and Indonesia retain strong reservations
re chief threat. Because of important domestic Chinese populations,
seen as internal security threat, Malaysia and Indonesia perceive
China as principal long-term danger. Visceral anti-Chinese sentiments
in both countries will remain for foreseeable future, although this
at present balanced (but not replaced) by anti-Soviet feelings by
Muslim populations. Some Malaysian and Indonesian leaders still
feel that a strong Indochina, dominated by Vietnam, is a necessary
buffer to Chinese expansionism if it isn't hostile to ASEAN.
4. Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines, on the other hand,
are not so concerned with China and see Soviets, plus Vietnam, as
chief threat. Thailand, of course, has already tilted towards China
over Vietnamese presence in Kampuchea; this worries Malaysia and
Indonesia who fear if Thailand tilts too far might jeopardize ASEAN
unity, invite superpower intervention in region. President Marcos has
become much more direct in faulting the Soviets for producing the crisis
in Kampuchea; more recently, in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, he has linked the importance of the Philippine bases to
an expanded US military role in Southwest Asia. Ironically, Marcos'
expressions of support have been followed by a $5 million cut in
in security assistance voted.by HFAC.
5. Thus ASEAN defense and foreign policies in process of
transition: Wants to retain strong US presence in area (especially
after Afghanistan) as deterrent. US role central to preservation of
ASEAN unity: military/econ aid to build up ASEAN defenses, help with
massive refugee problem, and in general maintain confidence. But
ASEAN ambivalent re US:
-- US needs to reestablish credibility as durable and consistent
deterrent. ASEAN sees diminution of bilateral programs over past few
years (FINS, MAP, PL480 grain shipments), plus human rights criticism,
as reflecting lack of US interest in region. ASEAN also suspects US
weak in military power, perhaps unable to project massive power overseas
ASEAN leaders question, for instance, whether US could come to aid in
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Appr.d For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP B 00100R000200150001-8
event of emergency in SEAsia if US involved simultaneously in conflict
elsewhere. Any extended drawdown of US forces in Pacific to
strengthen forces in Persian Gulf/Indian Ocean would confirm these
suspicions.
-- Moreover, Malaysia and Indonesia are active members of 3rd
World groups like Non-Aligned Movement, Group of 77. Both want to
maintain non-aligned credentials. Both have important Muslim
populations, so especially reluctant to do anything to jeopardize
relations with Muslim countries of Middle East. Fearful that US
might get involved in conflict there (i.e., Iran) -- this would
severely strain their relations with US and perhaps give domestic
anti-government Muslim extremists opportunity to exploit situation.
-- All ASEAN states have lucrative trade with Soviets. Don't
want to impair this. Also some may believe that Soviet dependence
on SEAsian primary commodities (rubber, tin etc) might act as brake
on Soviet adventurism.
6. ASEAN thus not unified on best means to meet new emerging
Soviet/VN threat. Not even willing to turn itself into explicit
defense grouping lest this might provoke VN. Will only cooperate
with US in way acceptable to all ASEAN members and will not 'go out
front' for fear or US drawback from present strong stand. Certainly
ASEAN as group doesn't seek explicit defense links to US (Thailand
and Philippines already have these of course) but will seek large
amounts military/econ aid to bolster own defenses, and might consider
joint defense exercises with US on bilateral basis, plus intelligence
exchanges. Individual states -- Thailand, Singapore, Philippines
--
might offer facilities to US in event of emergency but outside of
ASEAN rubric.
7. ASEAN perspectives not static. Reluctant to cooperate
explicitly with US on defense and to form itself into defense
grouping. Could change it
-- Hanoi invades Thailand
-- Soviets get permanent warm-water base in VN and thereafter
built up forces in region.
8. Despite conflicting pressures and potential disagreements,
ASEAN has held together remarkably well as a political institution.
It has publicly maintained a united front on the Kampuchean issue,
and recently unanimously condemned the USSR both for its encouragement
of. the SRV and for Afghanistan. This public unanimity (despite
private indications of differences in perspective) is more than we
would have predicted a year ago.
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approved For Release 200/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200
THE DIRECTOR OF
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
SUBJECT : Talking Points for
NIE 56-1-80
Attached are the talking points
for the DCI's use at the 27 March
NFIB sleeting where the Philippines
estimate will be considered.
Attachment
As Stated
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R00020
 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
TAppromp To6 Wease 2005/01/06: CIA- B0010OF ~1-8
0 TUH
SUBJECT : Talking Points for
NIE 56-1-80
Attached are the talking points
for the DCI's use at the 27 March
NFIB fleeting where the Philippines
estimate will be considered.
STAT
NIO/China-EAP
Attachment
As Stated
STAT cc:
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
 Approv.For Release 2055/01/06 : CIA-RDP8,0100R000200150001-8
TOP SECRET
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
28 March 1980
25X1
THROU. GI: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessor nt
MENORANDUf7 FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for Warning:,/-k
National Intelligence Officer for China-
East Asia Pacific
25X1
25X1
SUBJECT Warning Assessment: China-East Asia Pacific
sen
tatlves at the 19 March Warning Meeting.
China
0
The following items were discussed by the Community Repre
1. Analysts expressed the view that the recent party plenum
had provided a stable basis for further development (particularly
economic) in China: Some analysts noted that there were still
outstanding political problems to be overcome, but there was a general
consensus that although troublesome, none of these problems -- that
of dealing with recalcitrant bureaucracy was particularly stressed --
was insurmountable, or at least uncontainable. The question of
succession to the present leadership was also addressed. All analysts
agreed that Deng Xiaoping had done very well in putting his supporters
into key positions, and most believed that Hua Guofeng had at the same
time lost ground. Deng was now likely to have greater latitude in
pushing his programs. r
2. After some discussion, analysts generally concluded that
the Sino-Soviet border remained quiet -- some thought exceptionally
quiet -- and that there had been little discernible movement in any
direction in Sino-Soviet relations. Soviet command and control
DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON MARCH 2000
Derived from Multiple
TOP SECRET
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BOO100R000200150001-8
 Approvor Release 200%01%06: CIA-ID-P8 1JOR0002aU150001-8 -
TOP SECRET
25-X1
25X1
specialist fillers needed for units assigned to Afghanistan.
e analysts noted
a icu ar a oscow a reacted ca y to latest indications
that the US was prepared to sell military equipment to China.
Moreover, while Moscow had not moved any military units away from
the Sino-Soviet border, it had drawn on forces near the border for
to provide significant quantities of military aid was questioned.
4. The analysts saw no significant change regarding the
3. Participants in the meeting generally concluded that China
was worried but not panicked by the situation regarding Pakistan.
They noted that there were indications that the Chinese had run into
problems parallel with those the US faced in its relations with
Islamabad. From the Chinese perspective the situation in both
Pakistan and Afghanistan seemed to be dangerous but not critical, and
most analysts believed that the Chinese would act cautiously as the
situation developed. Reference was made to the scheduled visit of
a Chinese military delegation to Pakistan, but ability of the Chinese
Chinese approach to the Indochina question. There continued to be
no sign that Beijing was preparing to initiate major hostilities
along the Vietnamese border or the border with Laos; the Chinese
seemed to continue in a holding pattern, hoping that time would work
for their advantage. Although most analysts felt that the weather
would not be a major factor along those borders until late summer,
all agreed that once the rainy season in western Kampuchea began the
odds on a Chinese attack this year would fall still further. There
was some discussion of the Soviet naval combatants now gathered off
Vietnam, but while there were differences among analysts as to
whether or not these ships were primarily meant to reassure Hanoi
or were related to US naval moves in the Indian Ocean, there was
unanimous agreement that their presence off Vietnam was not
particularly ominous at this juncture. A fuller report on the
Soviet military presence in Vietnam was requested for the next
meeting. III
Indochina
5. Analysts generally agree that there had been no major change
in the overall situation in the past month. The famous Vietnamese
offensive in Western Kampuchea still had not taken place, and most
analysts thought it unlikely that any such offensive would occur this
year. Analysts noted with interest in this connection that the
25X1 2
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B001 -
 or rceiease zuueiuiiup : L.IH-rcurus uiuurcuuuZuui uuui-u
Vietnamese appeared to be building defensive positions in the area.
Some thought this might be preparatory to new sweep operations but
all agreed that the season was getting late for a major offensive.
There was general agreement that the Pol Pot forces remained much
stronger than had been expected at this point in the dry season;
several analysts noted that the DK forces were likely to enter the
rainy season no weaker than they had been when the dry season began.
LI
6. There was considerable exploration of possible reasons for the
relative Vietnamese quiescence. One possible explanation was that the
Soviets had not offered expected support, but the evidence for this
was inconclusive. The best clue pointing to this explanation was
the temporary stand down on Soviet support flights within Indochina,
which began at the time of the Afghan invasion; flights had been
resumed but on a less extensive scale.
ApPF8yed For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100F1000200150001-8
 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8
Next 5 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000200150001-8