MONTHLY WARNING MEETING FOR EAST ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000300030027-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 2, 2004
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: October 31, 1978
• Content Type: MF

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W SECRET W NFAC 4820-78
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers 31 October 1978
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
FROM Acting National Intelligence Officer for
East Asia and the Pacific
SUBJECT Monthly Warning Meeting for East Asia
1. After Dick Lehman's concept briefing, the East Asia
group made a tour of the Asian horizon. The discussion was
somewhat disjointed, but this only reflected that we have as
yet not developed a common understanding as to purpose. This
will come, I believe, in short order.
2. Likely developments over the next two to three months
center around Indochina and Korea.
-- Vietnam - Cambodia
The key issue in Indochina is whether the
Pol Pot regime can hold together and what
the Chinese may do to support it. If
Pol Pot is overthrown, 0 other Southeast
Asian nations, especially the Thais, would
be very concerned.
With the start of this year's dry season,
combined with new Soviet military deliveries
to Vietnam, there is increased possibility
of Vietnamese military moves along the
Vietnam-Cambodia border.
There is a possibility that the Pol Pot
regime may fall under such pressure,
although the odds are probably 70 to 30
against it. In the meantime, the Vietnamese
will continue their efforts to build an
insurgent political organization that would
legitimize Vietnamese-based guerrilla efforts
to overthrow the Cambodian regime.
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During the next two to three months, there
is likely to be a higher level of North
Korean military training--especially armor
training. This will probably coincide with
the pullback of the first US battalion from
the Joint Security Area. The stepped-up
military training will not necessarily signal
an intention to attack, however; it is in
keeping with the North's continuing program
of improved military training exercises.
There is a real possibility of student
demonstrations--with the attendant probability
of more arrests by the government of critics
of Pak--as the National Assembly elections of
12 December draw near. There is also some
danger of demonstrations in connection with
Secretary of Defense Brown's visit to Seoul
in November.
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MEMO FORDCI VIA NIO/WARNING, D/NFAC from Acting NIO/EAP,
dated 31 October 1978, Subject: Monthly Warning Meeting
for East Asia
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