MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000300040018-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2004
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: June 22, 1979
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Re a 2004M4: GIA-RDP83B00100RJP00040018-1
rAC No. 3312-79
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
22 June 1979
National Intelligence Officers
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director for National
Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer
for Warning
25X1A FROM:
Assistant National Intelligence
Officer for China
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: China
1. The Indochina Situation. Analysts at the 18 June
meeting felt that Indochina remained a festering problem for
China, but not one that required any particular decision from
Beijing in the short or medium term. Analysts expected a
step-up in Chinese attempts to destabilize the Lao govern-
ment, but generally agreed that Chinese efforts in this area
would remain relatively modest. Chinese allies in Kampuchea
had lasted to the rainy season and would obviously survive
through the rains (i.e., until late in the year at a minimum).
Chinese troop movements continued to indicate that Beijing has
no intention of renewing the border war soon. Some analysts
believed that this could change if Vietnam engaged in serious
and sustained hostilities with Thailand, but none thought
that likely.
2. Sino-Soviet Relations. Analysts believe that more
information will be-needed before it is possible to clarify
Chinese intentions regarding the proposed talks with Moscow.
Signals at this point are decidedly mixed and considerable
25X1
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ambiguity remains in the situation. We do not, for example,
as yet have the text of Hua Guofeng's opening speech at the
NPC. Some analysts noted that given even the most pacific
interpretation of Chinese motives it was necessary to consider
also the signs of continuing military buildup on the Soviet
side of the border.
3. The Internal Situation. Most analysts accepted
evidence that Deng Xiaoping's position had weakened over the
last several months, although a minority view was expressed
that Deng's influence has continued to expand on a virtual
straight-line projection. Most analysts believed that in
the weeks immediately preceding the NPC Deng had begun to re-
cover, but there was some ambiguity as to how far this re-
covery process had gone. No one at the meeting foresaw a
major crisis or a rapid return to major political bloodletting.
4. Afghanistan. This subject was only briefly dis-_
cussed. A-11 analysts believed that the SIviets were in an
extremely difficult situation but none fo esaw developments
that would lead to major Chinese involvem nt.
2
S E C R E T
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25X1A
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: China
25X1A A/NIO/CH-I
Distribution:
Orig. Fj 1 - Addressee
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - DD/NFA
1 - NIO/W
2 - NIO/CH
1 - NFAC Reg.
22 June 1979
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S E C R E T
 25X1A Approved For Release 2004/04/19 : CIA-RDP83B00100R000300040018-1
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25X1A
Please provide the following representatives with NFIB Con-
ference badges. Their respective agencies have certified their
clearances to us.
Time: 1400 Room No. 7E-62
NIO Chairman
5X1A
Major Wally Astor
Dr. Rogers Spotswood
Mr. David H. Siegel
Army
Lt. Col. Joseph Innis
Lt. Col. Charles D. Lane
DIA
25X1A
25X1A
State
Stanley Ifshin
SWS
Date
S cnrit? Anrr'vai has baen gran'*d fov
th-_ o _,T.3B00100R#300040018-1
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Date(s) 14 June 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief Receptionist
Please provide the following representatives with NFIB Con-
ference badges. Their respective agencies have certified their
clearances to us.
Time: 1300 Room No. 2D-47 Subject: China - Interagency Mtg.
DOD/OSD
Col. John A. Hager
Foreign Technology Division (A.F.)
Mr. James Ruth
Mr. Wayne Lauderback
NASA
Dr. Anthony J. Calio
Dr. Edward M. Ifft
.Mr. Myron W. Krueger
Mr. Kenneth S. Pedersen
Dr. William W. Raney
Dr. William C. Schneider
Dr. Wilfred Scull
Gen. Frank J. Simokaitis
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
Please refer questions regarding this meeting to:
NASA (Con't)
Mr. James R. Shaw
Mr. Peter G. Smith
Mr. David Williamson
J
sacurity Appro/af ico l n t.r,. ' for
the ll v',', C.C:1 ~"S I,,1'Cc^
S E C R E T
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