WARNING ASSESMENT FOR EAST ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00100R000300070003-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 20, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: July 25, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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THE DIRECTOR*
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
25 July 1980
Attached is the assessment prepared on the
basis of the Community views expressed at the
23 July warning meeting. This memorandum has
not been coordinated with the participants but
is being circulated among them.
You or your representative are cordially
invited to attend the next warning meeting for
East Asia in Room 7 E 62, CIA Headquarters, at
1400 on Wednesday, 20 August. Please provide the
name of your representative
y COB 19 August.
Distribution
State - Mr. Robert Drexler
Navy - Cdr. Robert Cyboron
DIA -
Air Force - aj . Wally Astor
Army - Col. Jack Churchill
Treasury - Mr. Arthur Long
SWS
NSA -
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Nationol Intelligence Officers
25 July 19 80
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
THROUGH Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
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FROM
.a_lona_ Intelligence Officer for East Asia
SUBJECT Warning Assessment: East Asia
The following items were discussed by the Community Repre-
sentatives at the 23 July Warning Meeting.
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2. South Korea: Public reaction to General Chon's-"purification
campaign," during which scores of public officials have been dismissed,
has been relatively mild. However, Chon must soon deal with the
Kim Dae Jung trial and the reopening of universities, which will offer
important tests of his public acceptance. Analysts also called attention
to the military's growing disillusionment with President Choi as a
workable partner in fashioning a new constitution and government. ^
3. North Korea: On the military side, activity in the area of
the DMZ remained at normal levels over the past 80 days. Politically,
analysts were hesitant to make preliminary judgments on possible North
Korean policy shifts based on only sketchy reports of Congressman Solarz's
visit to Pyongyong. Expressions of unhappiness about the visit by the
South Koreans continue to mount.II
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DERIVATIVE CL BY SIGNER
REVIEW ON JULY 2000
Derived from Multiple
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25 July 1980
4. Indochina: Analysts described a continuing series of
incursions into Thai territory by SRV forces directed at DK resupply
points. While these penetrations have been relatively shallow, the
attacks have been much larger than the one several weeks ago at Ban
Mak Nun. Analysts believe the Thai have avoided giving publicity to
the attacks because they are concerned that the extent of their
s
f
upport
or the DK will become public.
5. Analysts also indicated that DK forces have moved deeper
into Kampuchea from base areas close to the Thai border and, as
reflected in PAVN communications, have begun to raise PAVN concerns.
Heightened Chinese military activity along the Sino-Vietnamese
border was noted, along with more concrete expressions of Chinese
s
upport for Thailand in the event of a major PAVN attack.
6. Indonesia: There was agreement that relations between
Indonesia and the US have taken a turn for the worse. The Indonesians
have grown increasingly irritated with a series of policies which have
resulted from among other things a cutback of PL480 aid, cuts and
slow delivery of FNS, and a decision not to provide prior notification
of passage of US vessels through such Indonesian-claimed waters as
the Straits of Lombok. The impasse has not yet reached the critical
stage, but there was concern that the Indonesians may interpret these
policies as growing US indifference to East Asia and a "gnal that
they should adjust their posture toward the Soviets.
7. China: The pattern of political maneuverings prior to high-level
meetings later this year which was commented on last month has continued.
Analysts also commented on evidence of differences among Chinese leaders
who, while firmly committed to modernization, have conflicting views on
how to attain this goal -- centralized control of the economy along Soviet
lines vs. decentralization combined with enhanced material incentives
and elements of a market economy. Although analysts believed that those
favoring the latter course were presently in the ascendency, they
looked to the upcoming high-level meetings to provide a fuller picture. F
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