YAMAL PIPELINE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00140R000100080030-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2007
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: October 16, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
NFAC 16588-81
16 October 1981
MEt4ORANDUt-! FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA Chairman, National. Intelligence Council
FROM : Maurice C. Ernst
National Intelligence Officer for-Economics
SUBJECT : Yamal Pipeline
1.' The estimates we have received
delays in completion of the Yamal pipeli
license for " compressor components inv
0
ne if t
olve tw
concerning the potential
he US denies an export
o major .judgments, the
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first of which is probably far better based than the second one:.
a. Producing the compressor components (rotors and shafts).
in Europe rather than in the US would entail delays of about
:..two::years--0 presumably has the' technical expertise to make..
such-"a judgment.
b. These delays, in turn, would result in abou two-year
delay in completion of the pipeline itself--neither nor we
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can be confident about this judgment .0
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2. CIA has estimated that the pipeline could be completed in five
years--a year longer than planned. Many technical problems. that would
cause further delays could be encountered. The timing of compressor
deliveries may or may not become a critical factor. We simply do not.
know. We have little in-house expertise on pipeline construction and
have not yet had the opportunity to discuss the problem with companies
experienced in this activity. Consequently, I do not believe we are.
able to make a strong judgment on this matter other than to point out
that not licensing the components would substantially complicate the
Soviets' technical problems in bu the pipeline and could cause
lengthy delays in its completion
ttaurice C. Ernst
SECRET
Derivative C1 By Signer
Review on Oct 87
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