CHINA: PROVINCIAL GRAIN PRODUCTION

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2007
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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China:
Provincial Grain Production
Confidential
EA 82-10031
March 1982
274
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Direct, of Confidential
IntelligL~IR'e 0
China:
Provincial Grain Production
Information available as of 1 February 1982
has been used in the preparation of this report.
This r)aner was prepared byl
Office of East scan Analysis.
Comments and queries are welcome and may be
addressed to the ief, China Internal Division, OEA,
This paper has been coordinated with the Office of
Confidential
EA 82-10031
March 1982
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China:
Provincial Grain Productio
n
Introduction China's increased reporting on provincial grain production in the 1970s
permits the reconstruction of a relatively complete provincial series on
grain output for 1965 and for the 1970-80 period (see table 1). Data for two
earlier years-1949 and 1957-also are included because they are often
used as comparison bases by the Chinese and are significant historical
turning points in production trends (see appendix A). In addition to
presenting estimates of total grain output by province, this paper includes
discussions of historical trends in production of specific grain crops, rates of
growth and annual variations in provincial and regional output, surplus and
deficit regions, and the movement of grain between regions. The data
presented provide a base for further research on China's agriculture and
may be useful in measuring the impact of various inputs including
fertilizer, irrigation, pesticides, improved seeds, and machiner on grain
production in China's regions and provinces. 25X1
Confidential
EA 82-10031
March 1982
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Anhui
9.626
12.600
13.457
13.572
15.100
15.552
15.750
17.134
14.722
14.825
16.090
14.539
Beijing
1.001
1.418
1.500
NA
1.543
1.697
1.853
1.748
1.512
1.860
1.730
1.860
Fujian
4.292
NA
5.401
6.215
6.600
7.062
7.200
6.038
6.539
7.284
7.620
8.019
Gansu
3.690
3.864
3.864
4.250
3.871
5.032
5.535
NA
4.757
4.900
4.620
4.930
Guangdong
13.061
14.921
NA
NA
14.486
15.935
16.153
NA
NA
16.250
17.380
18.080
Guangxi
6.335
7.858
8.899
9.433
NA
10.008
10.508
11.139
10.374
10.850
11.730
11.910
Guizhou
5.775
6.600
6.944
NA
7.000
5.940
NA
6.699
7.644
7.644
6.230
6.480
Hebei
10.435
13.272
13.300
12.100
14.259
15.685
16.226
14.800
NA
16.850
17.790
15.220
Heilongjiang
9.113
12.166
NA
9.399
11.323
13.271
14.399
10.738
11.900
15.000
14.630
14.625
Henan
11.664
15.000
16.000
16.500
18.721
18.079
18.663
21.818
21.818
21.091
21.345
21.480
Hubei
12.773
12.750
13.100
13.045
14.045
15.450
15.988
16.988
16.183
17.250
18.495
15.360
Hunan
10.980
14.668
15.549
15.222
16.470
16.960
18.062
18.100
18.118
20.800
22.180
21.240
Jiangsu
13.400
15.500
17.650
17.470
19.500
19.073
19.364
21.250
18.161
22.738
25.140
23.570
Jiangxi
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
9.842
10.827
9.461
10.880
11.250
12.970
12.400
Jilin
5.733
7.629
7.629
NA
NA
8.732
8.485
7.629
8.300
9.150
9.035
8.600
Liaoning
6.377
6.454
6.760
6.257
8.447
9.604
10.454
NA
10.350
10.700
11.940
12.215
Nei Mongol
3.820
NA
NA
3.401
4.252
4.770
4.469
5.050
NA
4.950
5.095
3.970
Ningxia
NA
0.985
NA
NA
0.763
1.182
NA
0.806
0.999
1.180
1.061
1.204
Qinghai
0.713
0.618
0.724
0.885
0.856
0.885
0.982
0.997
0.818
0.857
0.820
0.960
Shaanxi
4.544
6.054
6.659
6.400
6.707
7.567
8.324
NA
5.707
8.000
9.090
7.570
Shandong
12.209
13.714
15.000
NA
17.581
17.355
20.000
22.500
21.000
22.880
24.720
23.840
Shanghai
1.530
NA
2.100
2.154
2.283
2.310
NA
2.470
2.070
2.520
2.590
1.869
Shanxi
NA
4.996
5.800
5.014
5.816
6.903
7.593
NA
NA
7.065
8.005
6.855
Sichuan
20.076
23.328
24.028
23.250
24.645
NA
25.250
24.850
27.500
30.600
32.010
32.640
Tianjin
NA
NA
0.304
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.186
1.385
1.380
Xinjiang
3.012
NA
3.184
3.012
3.222
3.098
3.407
3.400
3.217
3.700
3.940
3.890
Xizang
0.291
0.309
0.355
0.325
0.375
0.433
0.444
0.478
0.513
0.527
0.424
0.505
Yunnan
5.684
6.821
NA
7.105
7.977
7.730
7.730
NA
7.624
8.615
7.930
8.655
Zhejiang
NA
11.352
NA
13.215
12.900
12.040
10.215
10.839
12.465
14.215
16.120
14.350
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China:
Provincial Grain Production
The Agricultural Statistics System
China's agricultural statistics are based on informa-
tion provided by several million production teams.
The information is summed up at each administrative
level as it passes through the government hierarchy
until it finally reaches the national level State Statisti-
cal Bureau. The sum of the reported provincial pro-
duction generally corresponds closely to reported na-
tional production (see table 2) ~~
The Chinese report preliminary estimates of grain
production by 30 November of each year. Final
figures usually are announced the following April,
and the two number series can vary widely. In some
cases, the failure to report final figures in April has
required the use of preliminary estimates in construct-
ing the provincial grain series
Chinese statistics are consistent and are judged to be
basically reliable, although abuses have occurred.
Some cadre have inflated the production reports to
advance their careers-as was done, for example, at
the former model brigade of Dazhai in Xizang Coun-
ty, Shanxi. In other cases, officials have understated
China Grain Production: Comparison of
National Data to the Sum of Provincial Data
rvationai Uata
(million metric
Sum of Provincial
Data a (million
Percent
Difference
tons)
metric tons)
1970
240
232
-325X1
1971
250
241
-3.6
1972
240
240
0.0
1973
265
263
-0.8
1974
275
276
0.4
1975
284
285
0.4
1976
286
285
-0.3
1977
283
-37.3w
production to forestall higher procurement quotas 25X1
Problems With Sources and Definitions
The grain series published herein represents our best
estimates of official Chinese series. Because Chinese
claims are often based on incomplete reporting or are
inconsistent with other reporting, the following crite-
ria were used to choose the most representative claim:
? Recency of the data.
? Degree of detail.
? Reliability of the source.
? Compatibility with other data
Definitional problems as to changes in grain composi-
tion and in provincial boundaries also exist. Grain is
defined as crops most countries normally include as
grain, together with potatoes (converted at a 5-to-1
ratio), soybeans, and lentils
Grain produced on private plots has recently raised
additional definitional questions. The national totals
of 332 and 318 million tons for 1979 and 1980
included private grain, but before 1979 the govern-
ment prohibited private production. It is most k2'11
therefore, that the output of private grain was rif-ithor
substantial nor included in reports prior to 1979.
u
Since 1949 Beijing has redrawn provincial boundaries
on numerous occasions. With two exceptions, how-
ever, these changes occurred before 1970 and 11
had little impact on the series presented. The enlarge-
ment of the municipality of Tianjin at the expense of
Hebei Province in 1973 did cause a considerable
skewing of Tianjin's output because of its relatively
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low production level. The other major change was the
1979 restoration of regions ceded by Nei Mongol to
the northeastern provinces of Heilongjiang, Liaoning,
and Jilin, and to Ningxia and Gansu in 1969. Al-
though the territory involved was immense, the low
production of grain in the region created only minor
inconsistencies. For consistency and comparisons with
base year data, the Chinese have seemingly adjusted 1949 110.6
their claims to coincide with boundaries in existence 1950 129.2
during the 1970s
National Grain Output
Since 1949, China's grain output has increased at an
average annual rate of about 3.5 percent, slightly
above population growth (see table 3). During the
I 950s production rose rapidly as the country recov-
ered from the effects of the Sino-Japanese war and
the civil war. The stability provided by the central
government during the First Five Year Plan (1952-57)
disappeared with the drive to create a commune
system of agriculture and launching of the Great
Leap Forward (1958-60). Poor weather and misman-
agement caused a drastic decline in output in 1959.
Production began to recover with the implementation
of "agriculture-first policies" in 1961, and by 1965
output reached the levels achieved in 1957 and 1958.
Since the early 1960s, the use of modern inputs,
notably chemical fertilizers, has expanded ra idlyp 1969 211.0
has led to relatively steady growth in output ll~1 1970
1971
Increased grain production has occurred by planting
more high-yield strains, expanding the practice of
multiple cropping, and by increasing the use of fertil-
izers, pesticides, and irrigation. Between 1957 and
1978, output of high-yielding potatoes and corn rose
at a considerably higher rate than the 60-percent
China:
National Grain Production
1951 140.5 25X1
1952 160.2
1953 163.1
1954 165.7
1955 179.8
1956 188.4
1957 190.7
1958 195.5
1959 166.2
1960 140.3
1961 144.2
1962 156.4
1963 166.2
1964 183.3
1965 194.5
1966 214.0
1967 217.8
1968 209.1
240.0
250.1
1975 284.5
1976 286.3
1977 282.7
increase in total grain production (see table 4). In the 1978 304.8
same period, China's production of lower yielding 1979 332.1
crops-millet, soybeans, and sorghum-increased 1980 318.2
only slightly or fell. Production of wheat, which is
suitable for multiple cropping, increased by more than
twice the national rate of growth for grain production.
Ric out ut ke t pace with increases in total produc-
tion
a Includes potatoes converted on a grain equivalent basis of 5 to 1. It
is assumed that the Chinese converted potatoes at a 4-to-I ratio
through 1964. Reported output figures through 1964 have been
multiplied by 0.97754, the ratio of output of grain including potatoes
at a 5-to-I basis to grain including potatoes on a 4-to-I basis for
1957.
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25X1
25X1
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Tubers
Million metric tons
10
6
7
7
8
7
Percent
5.2
3.1
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.1
Miscellaneous grains
8
2.5
Despite Beijing's emphasis on grain production be-
tween 1960 and 1978, China's grain-producing areas
fell both in absolute terms (by 13 million hectares) and
as a percentage of the total sown area. In contrast, the
industrial crop area increased as a percentage of the
sown area (see table 5). The readjustment process
begun in 1978 led to a further 6.7 million hectare
reduction in the grain area by 1981. Most of the
decline was the result of planting industrial crops on
land formerly sown to grain. 25X1
Trends in Provincial Production
The increased use of modern inputs and the expansion
of irrigated area have led to variations in regional
patterns of development. Because the high-yield prov-
inces of central China received priority delivery of
 1957 111.9
1978 99.4
?
0
Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Shandong increased their shares
of national output Anhui, Hubei, and
Sichuan fell behind
North China is the major wheat-producing area, and
the provinces of this region account for almost half of
national wheat output (see figure 4). This region
produces winter wheat in a two-crops-in-three-years
rotation. The wheat is usually rotated with a crop of
coarse grains, soybeans, or oilseeds. The northwest is
the second most important producer of wheat. Hei-
longjiang is the leading producer of spring wheat. The
northern sections of Anhui and Jiangsu Provinces and
Sichuan Province also harvest significant quantities of
wheat
inputs, grain production in this region exceeded the
national growth rate (see figure 1). The North China
Plain benefited from investment in tube wells, which
permitted more land to be irrigated (see figure 2).
Better water conservancy, combined with increased
application of fertilizer and improved seed varieties,
resulted in rapid increases in output in north China.
Other areas showing good progress during the 1970s
were Sichuan and Liaoning-which had lagged be-
hind most of the nation during the 1960s-Guangxi,
and Jilin
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Geographically, the provinces that performed less
satisfactorily had little in common. However, most of
the slow-growth areas-Shanghai, Guizhou, Zhe-
jiang, and Anhui-also suffered from political insta-
bility during the succession period 1973-77. Growth
rates in Hebei and Nei Mongol were im eded by the
drought-induced disasters of 1980
A comparison of 1980's grain output with that of
1957 highlights the development of production in the
northeastern and northern provinces (see figure 3).
North China, the leading grain producing region, had
the largest increase in its share of national output.
The southwest lagged behind the rest of the country,
dropping from second to fourth place as a grain-
producing region. The other regions essentially main-
tained their shares of production. Within the regions,
Rice predominates in the provinces south of the major
wheat-producing areas. Central China leads the na-
tion with almost one-third of the annual rice crop.
South, southwest, and east China each account for a
significant portion of the national total. Depending on
local conditions and manpower availability, rice is
either double cropped or planted in rotation with an
overwintering crop. In south China, central China,
and Zhejiang (in east China) where double cropping is
prevalent, rice accounts on average for more than 80
percent of total grain output. North, northeast, and
northwest China together ce about 7 percent of
the nation's rice crop.
Most agricultural regions in the country have basical-
ly followed the national pattern of increased plantings
of rice, wheat, corn, and potatoes, with a correspond-
ing decrease in the area devoted to millet, sorghum,
and soybeans. Deviations from the national trend
include:
? Expanded plantings of corn at the expense of all
other crops in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu.
? Expanded plantings of rice and potatoes at the
expense of all other crops in the lower and middle
Chang Jiang (Yangtze) rice-growing provinces.
? Increased plantings of soybeans in south China.
? Greatly increased plantings of sorghum accompa-
nied by a small reduction in rice plantings in the
southwest
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
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China: Annual Variation and Growth of Grain Production, 1969-80a
Average Annual Increaseb 9
High growth
H
igh
growth
Percent
8
Low variation
H
igh
variation
7
-
17
-
-
--
6
5
-
0 27
20
Low g
L
ow
gro
wth
Low variation
0g
High
variation
Average Annual Variations
Percent
1-National
11-Henan
21-Shaanxi
2-Anhui
12-Hubei
22-Shandong
3-Beijing
13-Hunan
23-Shanghai
4-Fujian
14-Jiangsu
24-Shanxi
5-Gansu
15-Jiangxi
25-Sichuan
6-Guangdong
16-Jilin
NA-Tianjin
7-Guangxi
17-Liaoning
26-Xinjiang
8-Guizhou
18-Nei Mongol
27-Xizang
9-Hebei
19-Ningxia
28-Yunnan
10-Heilongjiang
20-Qinghai
29-Zhejiang
aSeveral provinces were included with less than 12 years data. If a single year
was missing in the series, the gap was filled by interpolation. Guangdong,
Jilin, Ningxia, and Shanxi had gaps of two years which were filled with
estimates from a least squares regression for the calculation of the growth
rate. Tianjin was not included because of limited information.
bCalculated by the Pesek method.
cAverage percentage change from year to year irrespective of sign.
The diverse nature of China's agriculture tends to
minimize annual variations in output. A poor harvest
in one province is usually offset by above-average
yields in other provinces. As a result, the annual
variation in national output tends to fluctuate much
less widely than output of individual provinces. More-
over, provinces with a high percentage of irrigated
land show less fluctuation in output than provinces
growing mainly dryland crops (see figure 5). A long
growing season, which permits multiple cropping and
increases flexibility in plantin schedules, also reduces
year-to-year fluctuations 25X1
Grain Balance
China is almost self-sufficient in grain. Nevertheless,
the coastal urban areas import over 10 million tons of
grain annually to meet consumption requirements. As
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Figure 2
CHINA: Agriculture
Yining
(Gulja)
'-_S i k uan Rrce
Chengdu
Percent in cultivation
10 30
i
CHIN PLAIN
Wr er Wneat-
So ghurr,-Com
He
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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4D Confiden
'll'ahin 6 a result, although imports comprise only a small
u
or
o
percent o
t
e gra
n consumed in
Phina: China's cities. The balance, approximately
Per Capita Grain Production a 50 million
National
293
303
326
Central
Hubei
356
377
399
Hunan
313
403
425
Jiangxi
376
353
402
East
Anhui
369
315
335
Jiangsu
293
390
427
Shanghai
100
230
231
Zhejiang
303
379
425
North
Beijing
144
219
199
Hebei
273
333
349
Henan
253
298
297
Shandong
218
320
342
Shanxi
230
291
327
Tianjin
NA
164
187
Northeast
Heilongjiang b
496
444
462
Jilin b
259
370
414
Liaoning
224
286
347
Northwest
Gansu b
357
262
244
Nei Mongol b
675
556
275
Ningxia b
300
322
292
Qinghai
312
235
220
Shaanxi
245
288
324
Xinjiang
361
300
314
Xizang NA 294 232
Yunnan 338 279 253
a Yearend population figures.
b 1979 readjustment of borders led to population shifts between
provinces.
portion of total grain supplies-3 to 5 percent-they
acco
nt f
15 t
20
f
h
i
tons, is procured from peasants. The majority of the
grain procured by the state distributed within the
producing provinces. 25X1
Grain involved in interprovincial trade moves from
the surplus production areas in the middle and lower
Chang Jiang and the northeast to the three municipal-
ities, the industrial province of Liaoning, and the
northwest (see figure 6). The major surplus prov-
inces-Zhejiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, and the
central provinces-have per capita output in excess of
350 kilograms (see table 6). The surplus areas are
characterized by high productivity or low population
density. Provinces requiring grain from other areas
generally have a per capita output of less than 280
kilograms. As an exception, Liaoning is a high per
capita grain-producing region but still imports consid-
erable grain. The relatively high percentage of people
living in cities in Liaoning probably accounts for this
discrepancy. North China-excluding the municipal-
ities-and south China, with per capita production in
the 280 to 350 kilogram range, are basically self-
sufficient. 25X1
Raising per capita grain output has been a slow
process. On the national level per capita output grew
by only 3.4 percent between 1957 and 1978. On a
provincial level the record was more varied. Almost
half of the provinces were unable to keep pace with
growth in population. Two regions-the northwest
and southwest-fared poorly. Anhui, Guangdong, and
Heilongjiang experienced declines of 10 to 15 percent
in per capita production. Other parts of the country,
notably north and east China (with the exception of
Anhui), were able to expand grain production at rates
in excess of population growth. Guangxi,
Liaoning Provinces also made good gains
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Figure 3
China: Grain Production, by Region
Percent
1 North-20.2
2 Southwest-18.3
3 East-17.3
4 Central- 15.2
5 South-11.4
6 Northeast-9.8
7 Northwest-7.9
China: Rice and Wheat Production, by Region, 1978
I Central-30.6
2 East-24.8
3 South-21.5
4 Southwest- 16.5
5 Northeast-3.2
6 North-2.4
7 Northwest-1.0
1 North-22.2
2 East-17.1
3 Central-15.4
4 Southwest-15.2
5 South-11.9
6 Northeast-11.1
7 Northwest-7.1
I North-47.1
2 Northwest- 16.5
3 East-14.6
4 Southwest-10.5
5 Northeast-5.3
6 Central-4.9
7 South-1.1
586121 2-82
Confidential
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Figure 5
CHINA: Irrigated Area and Variation in Grain Production
Percent of total arable
Annual variation in
land irrigated'
grain production'
Over 75
High variation
51-75
Low variation
25-50
Under 25
Agricultural region
boundary2
not included because of limited data
2Areas with cropping similarities
XlldtAfd6
M ?n oiia
LCIL
HEBEI
Shiliarhu
Korea
y Sc o.
Demarcation
Line
r. /
*Seoul
tZHoti
Changsha.
A Wttl
Hefei? :
Boundary rep reauthorit
not necessarily aUZrit /X
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as
Figure 6
CHINA: Grain Surplus and Deficit
)Lake
Baikal
*Ulaanbaatar
MONGOLIA
0
l~
Une Ch, coo rot o r+ Z~ AI La
0
Area of grain surplus
Area of grain deficit
AooNg Sea
HENAN
?~ "-SHAANXI
I ? Nancha
r JI GXt
Nanning
Hanoi
Lake
Balkhash
3 FUJIAN UZhen
Xiamen
I I v?~ N/A ~a1 -Pei ae
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative
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Appendix A
Provincial Grain Production,
1949 and 1957 a
Million Metric Tons
Anhui
4.550
12.370
Beijing
0.417
0.789
Fujian
2.825
4.442
Gansu
2.050
4.589
Guangdong
7.243
12.250
Guangxi
3.720
5.375
Guizhou
2.970
5.356
Hebei
4.695
10.100
Heilongjiang
5.770
7.850
Henan
7.273
12.250
Hubei
5.789
10.966
Hunan
6.400
11.324
Jiangsu
6.559
12.230
Jiangxi
3.875
7.000
Jilin
4.657
5.091
Liaoning
3.977
5.872
Nei Mongol
2.074
2.957
Ningxia
0.250
0.561
Qinghai
0.295
0.640
Shaanxi
3.290
4.440
Shandong
7.900
12.100
Shanghai
0.700
1.050
Shanxi
2.595
3.565
Sichuan
14.947
23.258
Tianjin
0.080
0.208
Xinjiang
1.018
2.034
Xizang
NA
NA
Yunnan
3.865
6.462
Zhejiang
4.300
7.650
a Production claims for 1949 and 1957 are included because of their
importance as base years and for long-term comparison. The data
are presented separately because of differing potatoes-to-grain
conversion rates. In 1949 and 1957, potatoes were converted into
grain at a 4-to-I rate. In the 1970s a rate of 5 to I was used.
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Appendix C
China: 1978 Provincial Grain Output a Thousand Metric Tons
17,250 12,100 5,221 (3,854) 3,025 2,300 2,300
20,800 (18,894) 8,320 (3,294) 7,280 (270) (270)
Anhui
Jiangsu
Shanghai
Zhejiang
North
Beijing
Hebei
Henan
Shandong
Shanxi
Tianjin
Northeast
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Liaoning
Northwest
Ningxia
Qinghai
Shaanxi
Xinjiang
South
Fujian
Guangdong
Guangxi
Southwest
Guizhou
Sichuan
Xizang
Yunnan
14,825 (8,895) (4,450)
22,738 (11,416) 2,974
2,520 (1,777) 785
14,215 (11,845) 6,345
1,860 (205) (205)
16,850 (600) (600) b
21,091 (1,500) (750) (375)
22,880 (650) (650) b
7,065 (50) (50) b
1,186 (250) (250) b
(25) b (2,134)
(40) b (1,040)
(250) b (407)
(470)
(750) 3,052
(250) b 1,748
8,089 8,089
(1,937) (1,862)
(450) (425)
9,150 1,150 1,150 (240) (240)
4,900 (25)
4,950 (40)
1,180 (250)
857
8,000 (750)
3,700 (250)
16,250 14,520 5,768
7,644 4,586
30,600 14,750
527
8,615 (3,326
(75) b
(25)
(50) b
(10) b
(1,934) 2,950 2,950
(3,142) 4,135 4,135
(895) 236 236
(5,500) 551 551
(684) (684)
(6,278) 6,200 (78) 6
(375) (7,856) (7,856)
1,360) (774)
(1,040)
(407)
(470)
2,660 (392)
(874) (874)
2,100 (150) (150)
7,038 423 423
3,416 (36) (36) b
a Figures in parentheses represent estimates based on available
information.
b Estimates made to be consistent with national output and estimates
of other provincial production. Provincial characteristics, suq~x1
grain production and importance of the crop evaluated, we
rnnandered
25X1
Confidential
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Approved For Release 2007/02/12 : CIA-RDP83B00227R000100070005-7
 Approved For Release 2007/02/12 : CIA-RDP83B00227R000100070005-7
Catty
Jin
Three wheats
Appendix D
Terms and Abbreviations
A measure of weight equivalent to 0.5 kilogram.
A measure of weight equivalent to 0.5 kilogram.
Wheat, barley, and naked barley.
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i
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Approved For Release 2007/02/12 : CIA-RDP83B00227R000100070005-7