CHINA: A GOOD YEAR FOR CROPS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00231R000100010002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2007
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of Secret
China:
A Good Year for Crops
An Intelligence Assessment
Secret
GI 82-10008
EA 82-10011
January 1982
Cody 415
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A\ Directorate of
Intelligence
China:
A Good Year For Crops
An Intelligence Assessment
Information available as of 31 December 1981
has been used in the preparation of this report.
The authors of this paper ar
Office of Global Issues, and Office of
East Asian Analysis. Comments and queries are
welcome and may be addressed to the Chief
Agriculture Assessment Branch, OGI,
or the Chief. lems Branc EA, on
This paper was coordinated with the National
Intelligence Officer for East Asia
Secret
GI 82-10008
EA 82-10011
January 1982
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Sperm
China:
A Good Year for Crop
D
Key Judgments The 1981 agricultural season in China was a success. Despite some
weather problems and a smaller-than-normal grain area, agricultural
production will be sufficient to allow the Chinese to trim agricultural
imports slightly yet still make improvements in food supplies.
This year's grain crop was at least 320 million tons, according to
preliminary reports out of Beijing. The early grain harvest announced by
the Chinese as more than 110 million tons-was about average, but the
late grain harvest which normally accounts for about 60 percent of total
grain production-was reportedly excellent. Indeed, good weather during
October and November may have boosted the late harvest to record levels.
The production of most industrial crops-oilseeds, cotton, sugar, tobacco,
and tea-was good, the result of an increase in sown area and greater
official attention.
As a result China will be able to temper agricultural imports somewhat.
Total grain imports will likely fall slightly from the 1980 record level to
just over 13 million tons with about 8 million tons from the United States.
China has cut back even more on purchases of US cotton, soybeans, and
soybean oil because of good domestic harvests and high US cotton prices.
Secret
GI 82-10008
EA 82-10011
Januarv 1982
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Figure 1
Eastern China: Selected Agricultural Areas
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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China:
A Good Year for Crops (u)
China reportedly harvested at least 320 million tons of
grain in 1981, 2 million tons more than in 1980 and
the second largest crop ever produced (see table I).
This estimate is likely to be revised upward several
million tons; another current Chinese estimate ranges
up to 328 million tons. Final production figures will
not be released until late April.1
Early Harvested Crops
The Chinese have announced that the early grain
harvest exceeded 110 million tons, almost 5 million
tons more than in 1980 but about the average of the
past five years. Early harvested crops include winter
grains (mostly winter wheat and barley), early rice,
and spring wheat. These crops normally account for
almost 40 percent of the total grain harvest (see
table 2):
? Winter grain production, up more than 3 million
tons from the 1980 harvest, accounted for most of
the increase.
? Early rice output, up more than I million tons from
1980, nearly reached the record of 52 million tons
set in 1979.
? Spring wheat production probably did not reach the
1980 level despite a larger sown area last year.
Flooding in the Northeast lowered yields, made
harvesting difficult or precluded it, and reduced
grain quality
yields than had been anticipated. Production was not
good in all areas, however. Heavy rainfall and flood-
ing plus a reduction in sown area caused output to fall
in some parts of the Northeastern Plain 25X1
crops on 15 percent of Hei ong~tang's 25X1
arm an mostly in the East, were completely de-
stroyed by mid-September. These factors apparently
prevented the record harvest that was at one time
anticipated by Beijing.
Rice. The intermediate rice crop was probably better
in 1981 than in 1980. The harvest was completed in 25X1
the early fall 25X1
o far, two provinces have
announce the preliminary results of their intermedi- 25X1
ate rice harvests: Sichuan, the leading producer,
reported that production exceeded 1980 levels by 5
percent, or about 750,000 tons; and Anhui Province
reported that output is up 6.4 percent over that in
1980 despite a reduction in sown area. The only area
where desired yield levels may not have been reached
is in the highlands of Central China where rainfall
was less than 50 percent of normal from May through
August. The late rice crop will also be larger in 1981
given planting conditions and weather patterns
Late Harvested Crops
Coarse Grains. Production of coarse grains and other
miscellaneous grain crops probably exceeded the 1979
record harvest of 117 million tons. Favorable weather
in most areas and improved agricultural policies
undoubtedly aided this year's production. Coarse
grain output was good in North China, the major
producing area. Despite delays in planting because of
dry conditions early in the spring, good precipitation
in late June, July, and August contributed to greater
Table I Million Metric Tons
Total grain
305
332
318
Rice
137
144
139
Wheat
54
63
54
Potatoes d
24
28
28
Soybeans
7
7
8
Miscellaneous b
83
90
89
For comparability, tubers are converted to grain by the weight ratio
of 5 to I.
b Includes corn and other coarse grains.
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 China:
Estimated Composition of Annual Grain Harvest
Because of rounding, components may not add to totals shown.
Primarily winter wheat, but including barley and edible legumes
other than soybeans.
Indicates a negligible figure.
Primarily corn and sorghum, but including millet.
Primarily sweet and white potatoes: regional and seasonal produc-
tion of tubers varies widely from year to scar depending upon
growing conditions.
Northeast h
North
Central
and East
Total
Total harvest
11
27
32
15
11
5
100
Early harvest
I
1 I
15
3
5
2
37
Winter grains +
0
11
4
2
1
18
Early rice
0
I 1
1
5
0
17
Spring wheat
I
0
0
0
1
2
Late harvest
10
16
17
12
6
2
63
Coarse grains
8
11
2
3
2
26
Intermediate rice
1
1
5
6
1
14
Late rice
0
8
1
4
0
13
1uberse
Soybeans
1
I
3
I
2
2
1
8
11 I gures presented provide national estimates of grain production by
type of crop and by region. Estimates are based on final grain
production statistics for 1978 and 1979.
Regional divisions used in this table are:
Northeast China: Hcilongjiang, IiIin, Liaoning.
North China: Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Beijing,
Tian in.
Central and East China: Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi,
Anhui, Jiangsu. Shanghai.
Southwest China: Guizhou, Sichuan, Yunnan.
South China: Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong.
Northwest China: Nei Monggol, Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang,
Xizang, Qinghai.
Soybeans. Production may slightly exceed 1980's
excellent harvest of 7.9 million tons. In eastern Hei-
longjiang, the nation's leading soybean producer, the
sown area was increased but the growing season was
cooler and wetter than normal, somewhat reducing
yields. Other areas enjoyed more favorable weather.
Henan, China's second-largest soybean roducin
province, reported a record harvest.
Industrial Crops. The larger area sown to increasing-
ly profitable industrial crops and the greater attention
given to these crops led to good harvests for oilseeds,
cotton, sugar, tobacco, and tea. The Chinese have
been particularly pleased with their vegetable oil
production. They estimate that 1981 output reached
9 million tons, up from the 1980 level of 7.7 million
tons even though the production of peanuts, the
most important oil-bearing crop, probably fell short of
the record of 3.6 million tons set in 1980. Most of the
increase came from exceptionally good spring and fall
rapeseed harvests. Indeed, many areas reported that
state procurement facilities did not have sufficient
capacity to handle all of the rapeseed and oil
Although the Chinese have been cautious in state-
ments about the cotton crop. prospects are excellent
Good growing conditions over most of the
Changjiang Basin and a slight increase in sown area
should boost cotton production above the 1980 record
of 2.7 million tons to as much as 3 million tons
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Clouded Outlook for 1982 Winter Grains
The sowing of winter grains has been completed.
These crops-primarily wheat, barley, and edible
legumes-which normally account for about one-fifth
of total grain output, will be harvested next spring and
summer. There may have been a reduction in the area
planted to winter grains this year. Because the coarse
grains harvest was delayed, many farmers elected not
to plant a winter crop for fear that it might be
severely damaged by early winter weather. Winter
grains, and winter wheat especially, require four to six
weeks to develop in order not to suffer extensive
winterkill
Soil moisture conditions were generally favorable for
planting, however, and some farmers in marginal
areas took the risk. Now the weather has turned
against them. Below-normal temperatures have oc-
curred throughout North China, and the forecast is
for a continuation of below-normal temperatures and
light precipitation throughout the region. Without
protective snow cover during periods of extreme cold,
winterkill can be extensive. Weather conditions dur-
ing crop dormancy December to early April--will
largely determine the amount of winterkill, but if the
forecast for North China proves accurate, damage
could easily be greater than normal.1
The Northeast, already snow covered and unseason-
ably cold, will continue to have heavy precipitation 25X1
and below-normal winter temperatures. Most fields
are already saturated from above-normal late sum-
mer-early fall precipitation, and the wet conditions
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are likely to have a significant impact next spring.
Normally spring sowing begins in April in Liaoning
and proceeds northward into Heilongjiang following
the spring thaw. If the fields stay saturated through-
out the winter, spring planting will be delayed. The
fields will have to be allowed to drain and the grain
that has been abandoned (especially in Heilongjiang)
will have to be cleared away. In some areas late
planting may leave immature crops vulnerable to an
early frost next fall
grain imports probably fell slightly. Nevertheless, to
improve living standards the Chinese purchased about
13.3 million tons of wheat and corn in 1981
The United States supplied most of China's grain
imports for the second year in a row. Although the
Chinese were given permission to purchase more grain
than the 9 million tons allowed in the long-term
agreement (LTA), total imports from the United
States probably only roughly matched 1980's record
sales of 8 million tons. So far, the Chinese have failed
to take 15 to 20 percent of their purchases in corn as
required in the LTA. At the annual bilateral grain
negotiations last summer the US negotiators admon-
ished the Chinese to buy more corn. Since the meet-
ings, the Chinese have purchased small amounts but
Trade
China remained an active buyer of agricultural prod-
ucts although total imports fell from the 1980 record
level. Purchases of vegetable oils, soybeans, and cot-
ton declined and, for the first time since 1976, total
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Figure 5
China: Simplified Field Crop Calendar
Northeast Plain Fallow;
One crop per year
Fallow
North China Plain; Sichuan Crop growth
Basin; Cooler Parts of
Middle and Lower
Changjiang Basin
Two or three crops per year,
depending on growing
conditions
Apr TM-Y Jun Jul Aug
Plant Crop growth Harvest Fallow
spring Spring wheat
wheat
Plant coarse Crop growth Harvest coarse Fallow
grainsa and grains and
soybeans soybeans
Harvest winter cropsb Crop growth Harvest intermediate rice Crop growth
plant coarse grains; and coarse grains;
transplant intermediate plant winter crops
rice
Harvest wint r crop, if any; Harvest la e rice; plant inter
transplant eajily rice crops or Dave fallow
Crop growth Harvest Crop growth Crop growth
early rice; or fallow
transplant
late rice
~, I I ( i I I I i
Warmer Parts of Middle and Crop growth Harvest winter Crop growth Harvest early rice; Crop growth Harvest late rice; Crop growth
Lower Changjiang Basin; crops; transplant transplant late rice plant winter crops
Pearl River Delta early rice
"Primarily corn, sorghum and millet.
bWinter wheat and barley, rape (an important oilseed crop), green-manure
crops, some edible legumes and tubers.
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Figure 6
China: Imports of Grain, by Source
Million Metric Tons
Other
^ France
Argentina
^ Australia
E Canada
^ United States
1966-70 71
Annual
Average
'Estimated.
0.2
1.4 2.0
1.9 77 0.9
did not purchase the 1.2 million tons stipulated in the
Argentina supplied less grain to China last year. As a
result of the US grain embargo against the Soviet
Union, the Soviets paid premium prices for grain
thereby leaving Argentina with less than the 1-
million-ton minimum called for in its agreement with
China. Nevertheless, the two countries have retained
the agreement and, in order to preserve the spirit of
the LTA, they negotiated a sale of 200,000 tons
below world market prices.
China's other traditional suppliers remained in the
market as well. The Australians shipped less grain to
China in 1981, perhaps only 1.5 million tons. Canadi-
an sales roughly equaled their LTA minimum of 2.8
million tons. France was one of the few exporters to
increase sales to China last year. Sales were up during 25X1
1981, the first year of an LTA that requires China to
import 0.5 to 0.7 million tons per year.
Adequate domestic harvests and high US cotton
prices held down US sales of soybean oil, soybeans,
and cotton to China. Cotton purchases for the first I I
months of 1981 were only one-half the record pur-
chases during the same period of 1980. Soybean sales,
on the other hand, were 80 percent of the 1980 level.
However, record Chinese vegetable oil production in 25X1
1980, and again in 1981, has cut US exports of
soybean oil by 75 percent and no major sales are
expected in the near future.
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Food Supplies
A harvest of 325 million tons of grain was necessary
for the Chinese to maintain the 1980 per capita
availability of 320 kilograms, which was above the
average for recent years. Other foods made large
gains in supply and variety as the production of
livestock and subsidiary food crops outstripped popu-
lation growth.
Much of the increase in food supplies in 1981 was the
result of recent policy changes. China's present lead-
ership is committed to raising living standards, and an
increasing number of leaders are willing to sacrifice
old ideologies to do so. The most radical of the new
policies is the adoption of the peasant responsibility
system where large collective work brigades, the
traditional accounting unit, are divided into smaller
groups either work teams or family units. Incentives
to the private sector have also been successful. Policies
allowing peasants to own more livestock and to culti-
vate larger private plots have been widely implement-
ed and, as a result, orivatc-sector production has
increased.
Although these new policies are currently under fire
from some hardline leaders, it is becoming increasing-
ly clear to Beijing that the measures must be contin-
ued to further improve living standards. The increase
in food availability, however, will not keep pace with
the rise in peasant income and the demand for food.
Peasant income is expected to rise sharply this year
from last year's per capita level of 120 yuan (US $80),
which was in turn up over 80 percent from 1977. Food
supplies will remain low by world standards, however,
and localized areas will continue to experience severe
food shortages
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