NSC STAFFERS COMMENTS ON PROPOSED NIC PRODUCTION SCHEDULE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00551R000100110011-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2007
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: August 12, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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National Intelligence Council
12 August 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT : NSC Staffers' Comments on Proposed NIC
Production Schedule
1. We have now reviewed compilation of NSC staffers'
comments on our provisional production schedule for the rest of 1982. We
think that getting such views is a most useful exercise. Many of the specific
comments made are well-taken, and it is particularly helpful to know the
interests of some of our primary customers. We agree with Walt that a similar
review of the schedule by State would be equally useful. (INR does routinely
receive and has an opportunity to comment on NIC production plans, through the
regular quarterly review by NFIB of the schedule of estimates for the ensuing
twelve-month period).
2. The following is an item-by-item response (NIC/DDI) to the specific
suggestions raised by Walt's memorandum to you. We have coordinated these
responses with Dick Kerr.
New Subjects
B. Western Europe-GLCMs: C/NIC has previously discussed these
questions with certain senior consumers, and NIO/USSR-EE convened a
meeting of European and Soviet specialists yesterday to discuss this
topic. We agree in principle that a paper on this theme needs doing and
will be done, although it may turn out to be a DDI rather than an
interagency paper.
C. Western Europe-United States: We are in the process of putting
together a broad examination of the many problems troubling the Europe-US
alliance. The paper, a definitive NIE called The Atlantic Bridge:
Diagnosis and Prognosis, and chaired by Ambassador Lincoln Gordon, is
scheduled for completion by the end of the year.
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D. Sino-Soviet Relations, There are several single-agency papers of
recent vint?ag~~ on this subject that appear to us to cover it adequately,
and a DDI paper-trat'includes a couple of alternative scenarios on this
subject should be completed within the next few days. The subject will
also be treated more fully in a DDI?-assessment now scheduled for
publication in November.
E. Soviet Drive for Ports and Airfields in Africa: A DDI/SOVA
study, "The Impact of the Soviet Naval Presence in Third World Countries,"
is nearing completion and covers part of this subject, as do (1) NIE
11-4-82, The Soviet Challenge to US Security Interests (just approved at
NFIB), and NIE 11- , The USSR and the Third World (scheduled for
completion by the end of September).
F. Future of World Trading System: DDI/OGI plans a report in
October detailing the country positions that probably will be taken on key
issues at the GATT ministerial. Although its paper will identify key
frictions among GATT members, we believe these questions do not readily
lend themselves to estimative treatment, and we feel unable to take on the
broad issue of the world trading system in a formal DDI paper or NIE.
G. Western Sahara: This subject was covered fairly thoroughly in a
NIC-prepared IIM on Prospects for Morocco that was disseminated in
mid-May. We do not see as yet any major new messages that need to be
conveyed on the subject.
H. Lebanon: We agree that a post-Israeli invasion paper on Lebanon
is very much in order and we plan to do one, possibly a SNIE, in the
relatively near future. The effects of the Lebanon crisis on US arms
sales will, by the way, be included in SNIE 4-2-82, The High Technology
Arms Market: Implications for the US, which is now under way and
scheduled for completion in the fourth quarter of 1982.
I. Soviet Nuclear Weapons Design: DDI/OSWR has for some time been
preparing a definitive study of Soviet nuclear weapons technology. That
study (1) treats the question of nuclear weapons design in detail; and
(2) is almost completed. There is a draft in hand; it will be polished
and completed in coming weeks.
Timing Suggestions
A. Soviet Ballistic Missile Defense IIM: The draft is nearly
complete (eight of nine chapters done), and final coordination meetings
will get under way in late August. The paper should be published sometime
in September.
B. Caribbean IIM: A rough draft is in, but the paper needs a good
deal of work. We estimate it will be ready for publication in late
September or possibly October.
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C. Mexico-Central America IIM: The building block for this paper, a
DDI/ALA assessment, is nearly completed, but it will be difficult to do
much to expedite the interagency treatment of the subject. We will do our
best to adhere to the planned third-quarter production target, however.
D. US Monitoring Capabilities NIE: Again, we can appreciate the
desirability of moving briskly along with this paper, but it is a most
complex undertaking requiring inputs from many elements around the
Community. To date only about 25 percent of the raw inputs have been
received, and it is going to be very difficult to meet the planned target
date of late September. We will nonetheless do our darndest.
E. Soviet Approach to Arms Control: DIA is producing the draft of
this NIE, but we see little opportunity to expedite its completion earlier
than the end of September target date.
F. Philippines NIE: The agency representatives have completed this
paper. It now awaits only NFIB review. We anticipate that it will be
published within a week or so. Uk
G. ASEAN-Kampuchea: Our NIE on ASEAN is under way, but it will not
focus primarily on the Kampuchean problem. Rather, it examines ASEAN's
inner workings and the viability of the association, in terms of the
policies and inclinations of the five member states themselves. A SNIE
entitled Conflict in Kampuchea: Prospects for the Resistance and
Implications for US Relations in Asia was published last February, and we
are now working on a NIC Memorandum -- not a formal interagency paper --
on Vietnam's dominati n of Indochina (Walt's paragraph I).
TV o F_
H. Indonesia LIM` We are off to a rather slow start on this paper
but plan to push ahead and complete it well before President Suharto's
visit materializes.
Henry S. Rowen
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DDI# 6580-82
12 August 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Acting Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT : NSC Staffers' Comments on Proposed NIC
Production Schedule
Distribution:
Original - Addressee
1 - DCI
1 - EXDIR
1 - SA/IA
1 - Executive Registry
1 - A/DDI
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 -.EO/NIC
1 - Each NIO
1 - NIC/AG
1 - SRP
1 - DDI Registry
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