SOVIET PRESENCE IN THE THIRD WORLD: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PAST DECADE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00851R000300090002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 10, 2007
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
Directorate of Secret
Intelligence
Soviet Presence in the
Third World: Developments
in the Past Decade
Secret
GI 82-10228
October 1982
Copy 4 8 5
 Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
 Approved or Release - 83B00851 R000300090002-3
Directorate of
Intelligence
in the Past Decade
Soviet Presence in the
Third World: Developments
Information available as of 15 October 1982
has been used in the preparation of this report.
This paper was prepared byl Political Instability Branch, Off-ice of Global Issues,
with support from the Communist Activities
Branch and the Instability and Insurgency Center,
OGI. Comments and queries are welcome and may
be directed to the Chief, Political Instability Branch,
OGI,
1!7
Secret
GI 82-10228
October 1982
 Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
25X1
25X1
 Soviet Presence in the Third World:
Developments in the Past Decade
The position of the Soviet Union in the Third World
today is stronger than it was a decade ago, despite
recent setbacks.
Trends
During the 1950s, following the reversal of its self-
defeating division of the world into "two camps," the
Soviets succeeded in making major inroads in Egypt,
India, Indonesia, Ghana, and other former Western
colonies. But Moscow's diplomatic and propaganda
support, modest economic aid, and arms sales failed to
deter continuing US activism and did not prevent a
string of major setbacks during the 1960s-in Zaire,
Laos, the Dominican Republic, Brazil, Ghana Indo-
nesia, Mali, and the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.II
Nor did the Soviets make major headway during the
next half decade, notwithstanding US difficulties in
Southeast Asia:
? In 1972, two years after Moscow obtained a major
military presence in Egypt, the Soviets were just as
suddenly ousted by President Sadat.
? In the Sudan, a Soviet-supported coup attempt
against President Nimeiri failed.
? President Salvador Allende's regime in Chile was
overthrown.
Soviet Ship-Days in Distant Waters, by Type,
1972-81
Auxiliaries
351
Surface combatantsa
Amphibious ships
General purpose submarines
Mine warfare ships 1
SSBNs
1972 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
a Includes mine warfare ships in 1972 and 1973.
? Hanoi was made to accept a compromise settlement
notwithstanding the withdrawal of US ground
forces from South Vietnam.
? Although the Soviets contributed to India's victory
over Pakistan in 1971, they watched quietly when
the US and Israel strongly backed King Hussein
during Jordan's conflict with the PLO and Syria in
1970.
Thereafter, however, and through the remainder of
the 1970s, the Soviet Union notably improved its
position and influence in the Third World. Whereas
the general global perception in the two previous
decades usually was of trends encumbered by enough
conflicting developments and complications to make
interested observers cautious in their conclusions
about the real extent of Moscow's gains and losses,
most analysts currently believe Moscow has apprecia-
bly improved its position in the Third World, both in
absolute terms and especially in its competition with
the US. The major events leading to this conclusion
include:
? North Vietnam's 1975 defeat of South Vietnam,
acquisition of control over Laos, and 1978 interven-
tion in Kampuchea.
Overseas Deployment of Soviet Naval Aviation,
1972, 1976-81
TU-95 Bear D, Cuba
Badger, May, Mail, Egypt
TU-95 Bear D, Angola
IL-35 May, South Yemen
TU-95 Bear D, Vietnam
IL-38 May. Ethiopia
TU-142 Bear F, Vietnam
TU-16 Badger, Syria
IL-38 May, Syria
IL-38 May, Libya
 Secret
? The Soviet-supported MPLA's 1975-76 victory in
the Angolan civil war, following the intervention of
Soviet-armed Cuban troops transported by Cuban
and Soviet aircraft.
? Ethiopia's 1977-78 Soviet-Generaled drubbing of
Somalia in the Ogaden War, following the interven-
tion of Cuban troops supported by a massive Soviet
military airlift.
? The 1978 Soviet-supported Communist coup in
Afghanistan, acquisition of considerable Soviet in-
fluence in Kabul, and the 1979 Soviet invasion.
? The Shah's ouster in Iran, the new clerical regime's
vituperative hatred of the United States, and seizure
of the American Embassy and ensuing hostage
crisis.
? China's relative restraint and early withdrawal dur-
ing the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War.
? The Cuban-supported Sandinista's ouster of Presi-
dent Somoza from Nicaragua in 1979 and develop-
ing insurgencies in El Salvador and Guatemala.
? Moscow's signature on 12 friendship treaties be-
tween 1971 and 1981 (two of which were later
abrogated).
USSR and Allies: Combat Forcesa Out of
Country, 1972-82
Cuba
Vietnam
-nlclucies Soviet forces in Mongolia, which in 1981 totaled
56,000; excludes several hundred North Korean combat personnel;
excludes Soviet forces e
More recently, prominent developments less favorable
to Soviet interests have occurred. The momentum of
Soviet gains and shocks to US interests appears to
have slowed considerably owing to:
? The continuing stiff insurgency in Afghanistan,
where Moscow has been reluctant to make new
major commitments.
? Third World and particularly Islamic hostility to
the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan, and
related failure of Cuba's chairmanship of the Non-
aligned Movement.
? The continuing crisis in Poland that has required
substantial Soviet attention and perhaps made Mos-
cow reluctant to be more aggressive elsewhere.
? The war between Iraq and Iran, in which Baghdad
and Tehran have condemned Soviet aid to the other
more than they have appreciated the modest Soviet
support that they have each received.
?' The US shootdown of two Libyan fighters, with-
drawal of Libyan troops from Chad in 1981, and
failure of Qadhafi's 1982 OAU summit.
? The negotiated settlement in Zimbabwe. Prime
Minister Robert Mugabe's cool relations with Mos- 25X1
cow, and the eclipse of Joshua Nkomo, Moscow's
principal ally.
? Increased South African and local insurgent threats
to Angola and Mozambique.
USSR and Other Warsaw Pact Nations:
Military Agreements With Non-Communist
LDCs, 1972-81
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia and South Asia
0 Middle East and North Africa
r
b
 Approved For Release (;IA-RDP 0 -3-
Secret
? Successful elections in El Salvador and the im-
proved counterinsurgency outlook there and in
Guatemala.
? The 1982 conflict in Lebanon in which the Syrian
Air Force was humiliated, the PLO was driven from
Beirut, and Moscow was a bystander.
Soviet Gains
Although Moscow has recently failed to make new
major gains comparable to its earlier achievements,
its position in the Third World nevertheless remains
greater than it was a decade ago:
? Soviet naval aircraft periodically operate out of
Vietnam, Cuba, Angola, Ethiopia, South Yemen,
Syria, and Libya, whereas a decade earlier they
spent far less time in the Third World and operated
only out of Cuba, Egypt, and Somalia.
? Moscow is the principal supplier of arms to 34
LDCs compared with 17 a decade ago (including
Cuba, Vietnam, Mongolia, and North Korea).
? The Soviets are earning up to $6 billion a year in
hard currencies from the sale of arms and military
equipment to Third World countries.
? The USSR and Cuba play a major role in southern
Africa and on the Horn of Africa, while Libya now
seeks to influence developments in West Africa.
USSR and Other Warsaw Pact Nations:
Economic Aid Agreements With Non-Communist
LDCs, 1972-81
Latin America
IS Sub-Saharan Africa
f~ East Asia and South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
? Nicaragua poses a serious conventional military
threat to its neighbors and seeks to sustain the
insurgencies in El Salvador and Guatemala.
? Vietnam dominates Indochina and threatens
Thailand.
? The Soviets may yet turn Afghanistan into a new
Mongolia, and Pakistan and Iran have been further
threatened.
? The setback to US interests in the Persian Gulf
caused by the Shah's ouster re resents a continuing
Soviet gain.
Moscow's aggressive foreign and defense policies also
have paid off in the daily currency of Third World
attention to Soviet interests. The Soviets have not
gained control over noncontiguous Third World coun-
tries; but they have helped to install, keep in power,
and otherwise support a host of governments amena-
ble to Soviet interests and objectives and hostile to
those of the US.
In still other nations, the USSR has gained an entree
and a respect leading to caution among some other-
wise inclined to deny or attack its interests. Thus,
Moscow has gotten off relatively lightly in interna-
tional forums, despite its frequently aggressive behav-
ior. The increased Soviet presence in the Third World
North Korea, Libya, and Cuba: Military Aid
Agreements With Non-Communist LDCs,
1972-81
Iran
Libya
Other Middle East
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia and Latin America
? Syria
~ Ethiopia
= Other Sub-Saharan
Angola
Libya
Total: 213
Cuba
Total: 173
 Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
Secret
also affords greater opportunities for intelligence
gathering and subversion.
Instruments of Soviet Diplomacy
Besides its strategic nuclear arsenal and Eurasian-
based conventional forces-the principal foundations
of its international position vis-a-vis the West, China,
and relatedly the Third World-the Soviet Union has
sought to increase its assets and influence by:
- Moscow's Warsaw Pact allies, Cuba, Libya,
and North Korea have given LDCs military 25X1
and economic aid and technical assistance.
- 35,000 Cuban troops are deployed in Angola
and Ethiopia.
? Military activities and operations:
- Weapon and other military equipment sales
totaling $59.8 billion in 1972-81.
The USSR is now the world's leading arms
exporter.
- Training LDC military personnel in the
USSR-1,615 in 1981-and dispatching So-
viet military training teams abroad.
- Inviting foreign military personnel to the
USSR to observe exercises, celebrate holi-
days, and otherwise visit; and sending Soviet
military delegations to LDCs.
- Forward deploying naval units in the world's
oceans, including the Mediterranean, Carib-
bean, West African waters, and Arabian Sea.
- Crisis and other special activities-including
naval presence, airlifts, sealifts, military exer-
cises, and the deployment of ground and air
units.
? Economic aid and cultural exchanges:
? Other activities:
- Direct and indirect Soviet and allied materiel
assistance and training to insurgent and ter-
rorist groups attempting to overturn or other-
wise threaten the governments of up to 21
Third World nations (including Turkey).
- Financial support to Communist parties,
front groups, and other opposition organiza-
tions in numerous LDCs.
- Media propaganda and disinformation
activities.
- Subversion of moderate and pro-Western re-
gimes.
Crises and Other Major Third World Developments
Eliciting Soviet Military Activities
- Between 1954 and 1981, the USSR extended
$22.4 billion in credits and grants to LDCs
,
65 percent of this in 1972-81.
- In 1981, 34,970 Soviet economic technicians
were in LDCs, and some 4,800 LDC techni-
cal trainees departed for the USSR and other
Warsaw Pact nations last year.
1973 Dho
Assa
leade
Iraq-
Midd
far Rebellion in Oman.
ssination of Portuguese-Guinean insur
r.
Kuwait dispute.
le East war.
gent
- At the end of 1981, 42,800 LDC academic
students were in the USSR.
1974-75 Kurd
Cypr
Syria
ish insurgency in Iraq.
us conflict.
-Israel conflict.
Encouragement, support, and orchestration of allies
as surrogates:
1975-76 Ango
L
b
lan civil war.
i
il
A
e
a
non c
v
war.
-
pattern of cooperation and coordination-
threatening the stability of moderate and pro-
1977-78 Ethio
pia-Somalia conflict.
Western LDCs and enhancing their own mu-
1978-79 Chin
a-Vietnam conflict.
tual security-exists between the USSR, oth-
1979- Insur
gency in Afghanistan.
er members of the Warsaw Pact, Cuba,
Vietnam, Libya, Nicaragua, Grenada, Ethio-
South
South
African incursion in Mozambique.
African incursion in Angola.
pia, Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen,
and a number of other states.
Seizu
Israel
Coup
re of Soviet fishing vessels by Morocco
-Syria conflict in Lebanon.
attempt in Seychelles.
.
1982 Falkl
Army
Israel
and Islands conflict.
mutiny in Seychelles.
i invasion of Lebanon.
 Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
Secret
also affords greater opportunities for intelligence
gathering and subversion.
Instruments of Soviet Diplomacy
Besides its strategic nuclear arsenal and Eurasian-
based conventional forces-the principal foundations
of its international position vis-a-vis the West, China,
and relatedly the Third World-the Soviet Union has
sought to increase its assets and influence by:
- Moscow's Warsaw Pact allies, Cuba, Libya,
and North Korea have given LDCs military 25X1
and economic aid and technical assistance.
- 35,000 Cuban troops are deployed in Angola
and Ethiopia.
? Military activities and operations:
- Weapon and other military equipment sales
totaling $59.8 billion in 1972-81.
The USSR is now the world's leading arms
exporter.
- Training LDC military personnel in the
USSR-1,615 in 1981-and dispatching So-
viet military training teams abroad.
- Inviting foreign military personnel to the
USSR to observe exercises, celebrate holi-
days, and otherwise visit; and sending Soviet
military delegations to LDCs.
- Forward deploying naval units in the world's
oceans, including the Mediterranean, Carib-
bean, West African waters, and Arabian Sea.
- Crisis and other special activities-including
naval presence, airlifts, sealifts, military exer-
cises, and the deployment of ground and air
units.
? Economic aid and cultural exchanges:
? Other activities:
- Direct and indirect Soviet and allied materiel
assistance and training to insurgent and ter-
rorist groups attempting to overturn or other-
wise threaten the governments of up to 21
Third World nations (including Turkey).
- Financial support to Communist parties,
front groups, and other opposition organiza-
tions in numerous LDCs.
- Media propaganda and disinformation
activities.
- Subversion of moderate and pro-Western re-
gimes.
Crises and Other Major Third World Developments
Eliciting Soviet Military Activities
- Between 1954 and 1981, the USSR extended
$22.4 billion in credits and grants to LDCs
,
65 percent of this in 1972-81.
- In 1981, 34,970 Soviet economic technicians
were in LDCs, and some 4,800 LDC techni-
cal trainees departed for the USSR and other
Warsaw Pact nations last year.
1973 Dho
Assa
leade
Iraq-
Midd
far Rebellion in Oman.
ssination of Portuguese-Guinean insur
r.
Kuwait dispute.
le East war.
gent
- At the end of 1981, 42,800 LDC academic
students were in the USSR.
1974-75 Kurd
Cypr
Syria
ish insurgency in Iraq.
us conflict.
-Israel conflict.
Encouragement, support, and orchestration of allies
as surrogates:
1975-76 Ango
L
b
lan civil war.
i
il
A
e
a
non c
v
war.
-
pattern of cooperation and coordination-
threatening the stability of moderate and pro-
1977-78 Ethio
pia-Somalia conflict.
Western LDCs and enhancing their own mu-
1978-79 Chin
a-Vietnam conflict.
tual security-exists between the USSR, oth-
1979- Insur
gency in Afghanistan.
er members of the Warsaw Pact, Cuba,
Vietnam, Libya, Nicaragua, Grenada, Ethio-
South
South
African incursion in Mozambique.
African incursion in Angola.
pia, Angola, Mozambique, South Yemen,
and a number of other states.
Seizu
Israel
Coup
re of Soviet fishing vessels by Morocco
-Syria conflict in Lebanon.
attempt in Seychelles.
.
1982 Falkl
Army
Israel
and Islands conflict.
mutiny in Seychelles.
i invasion of Lebanon.
 Approved For Release 2007/01/10: CIA-RDP83B00851 R000300090002-3
Secret
Secret