NIO MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENTS: NOVEMBER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100010010-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 16, 2004
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: November 30, 1982
• Content Type: MF

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National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
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National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT NIO Monthly Warning Assessments: November
1. The reports on the NIO warning meetings are attached.
2. Comments on warning situations.
a. USSR
NIC #9716-82
(1) Early moves by the Andropov leadership may
signal a shift to a more assertive policy in
countering the Reagan Administration's foreign
and defense policies. Two weeks after Andropov's
"unanimous" election as general secretary, Pravda
issued a personal attack on the President, condemned
his arms control policy as aimed at achieving
military superiority, and denounced the MX decision
as a violation of the SALT treaties. TASS's
chief military analyst later. charged that the MX
decision means that the U.S. no longer intends to
observe SALT II restrictions, and the Novosti news
agency warned that the deployment of "Euromissiles"
next year would create a new strategic situation
that would oblige the Soviet Union to adopt a
launch-on-warning strategy.
(2) Novosti's warning that Soviet retaliatory
strikes would be aimed at U.S. military facilities
located in "densely populated areas" of Western
Europe probably foreshadows a vigorous propaganda
offensive in the next three months aimed in part
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NIC #9716-82
SUBJECT: NIO Monthly Warning Assessments: November 30 November 1982
at influencing the outcome of the West German
elections in early March. As part of this campaign,
the Soviets may threaten to end their moratorium
on SS-20 deployment if preparations for NATO's
INF modernization proceed.
b. Pakistan/India/Israel
(1) While the possibility of an Indian or Israeli
preemptive attack must be viewed as a realistic threat,
intelligence analysts recognize that both countries
would incur serious political costs and risks in
undertaking such an attack.
c. Iran-Iraq
(1) Reinforcement of Iranian units on the
Iraqi border west of Dezful points to an intensi-
fication or Iranian attacks on the central front
in the next few weeks. The Iranians probably
will attempt to outflank Iraqi defenses and seize
positions that would enable them to interdict the
main highway between Baghdad and Al Basrah.
(2) Although President Saddam Hussein's
control of Iraqi security forces appears firm,
his hold on power could be threatened by an
Iranian disruption of road communications between
Baghdad and the south or by a major defeat of
Iraqi forces on the central front and a disorganized
retreat. His position has been weakened by the
growing reluctance of the Gulf states to fund
Iraq's war effort and by their failure to respond
to Iraq's invocation of the Joint Arab Defense
Treaty in October.
d. Mozambique
(1) The struggle between the Machel regime
and South African-supported insurgents may reach
a flashpoint in the next 60 to 90 days. The
regime's inability to contain the expansion of
the insurgency may impel Machel to call for Cuban
troop assistance. Such a move would trigger a
rapid escalation in view of South Africa's warning
that Cuban military intervention would be resisted
by South African forces. An escalation could also
involve Zimbabwe which has deployed troops into
Mozambique to protect-vital rail and pipe lines.
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NIC #9716-82
SUBJECT: NIO Monthly Warning Assessments: November 30 November 1182
e. Sudan
(1) President Nimieri's hold on power may be
jeopardized in the next few weeks by a severe
economic crisis. A sharp rise in prices resulting
from a 45 percent devaluation coupled with low
petroleum stockpiles could precipitate serious
disorders. Saudi Arabia appears unwilling to
finance a massive bailout.
f. El Salvador
(1) The guerrilla offensive in the northeast
has demonstrated an undiminished capability to
maintain pressure on government forces. If the
leftists continue to score gains in this area,
they may declare a "liberated" zone and conceivably
proclaim a rival revolutionary government as a
means of pressing their demand for negotiations.
g. Nicaragua
(1) The movement of Nicaraguan tanks to the
border with Honduras and warnings that Nicaragua
will launch counterattacks if the anti-Sandinista
threat intensifies have increased the chances of
military escalation. Limited cross-border
operations by Sandinista forces cannot be ruled
out. A military response by Honduras might prompt
the Nicaraguans to call for greater Cuban and
Soviet military ass).etnce.
Attachments:
NIO/AF
NIO/LA
NIO/WE
NIO/NARC
NIO/NESA
NIO/EA
NIO/USSR-EE
NIO/NP
Upon Removal of Attachments
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