NIO/W CONTRIBUTION TO THE DCI WATCH COMMITTEE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100020018-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 17, 2005
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: September 15, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approve ar Rele
ie27R000100020018-6
15 September 1982
NIfl/W Contribution to the DCI Watch Committee
Israel
--The death of President-elect Jumayyil and the consequent danger of serious
fighting among rival Lebanese factions are likely to move the Begin government
closer to forcing an early confrontation with PLO and Syrian troops in northern
and eastern=Lebanon. Israeli charges of Syrian and Palestinian cease-fire
violations and warnings that a war of attrition will not he tolerated are designed
to establish a justification for expelling them from Lebanon.
--The Israelis are increasingly frustrated that the expulsion of the PLO from
West Beirut has not diminished the PLO's political stature. Arafat's reception.
by the Pope and the return of senior PLO officials to Lebanon have heightened
Israeli concern.
--Israeli public complaints that President Reagan's proposals deviate from the
Camp David accords and private comments that Israeli assessments of Egyptian
policy and President Tiubarak's hold on power have changed recently also suggest
that the government is considering strong polir;c_al and military initiatives to
--The attack on a police convoy in Wroclaw, protest marches in Nowa Huta, and.
incidents in other cities on 13 September underscore the volatile atmosphere
following the suppression of mass demonstrations on 31 August.
--Pravda's subsequent warning that the Polish party has proved effective only
when it operated with Soviet Communists and accepted their criticism suggests
that r'bscm is applying stronger pressure on the Jaruzelski regime for stern action
to repress dissent.
--Claims by a captured insurgent leader that the guerrillas are planning large
offensives within the next few months and may soon increase activity around the
capital nrobably reflect their assessment that growing disunity in the government
and military will provide new opportunities to force the government to negotiate.
Ethiopia-Somalia
--Ethiopia's reinforcement of border villages occupied by Somali dissidents in
July and its decision to increase military aid to a dissident group in northern
Somalia raise the possibility that Addis 'Ababa plans to renew limited efforts to
foment unrest and military mutinies within Somalia. The Ethiopians may believe it
is necessary to move before President Siad's position is further strengthened by
US military assistance.
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Approved For Release J0051 12114: - 7R000100020018-6