NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE OFFICER FOR WARNING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100030024-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 13, 2005
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: January 1, 1982
• Content Type: MF

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Washington. D. C. 20505
MEMORANDUM FOR: The National Foreign Intelligence Board
FROM : Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT . National Intelligence Officer for Warning
1. We reviewed the role of the DCI in warning and discussed
the options for the mechanisms needed to support me in that role.
In May I issued my decision on those options and set the general
direction for the warning function at the national level
(Attachments A and B). I charged the NIO for Warning and the
Warning Working Group with completing the details.
2. I also noted the need for a full-time NIO for Warning, and
I am seeking your assistance in filling that position. I need an
experienced senior intelligence officer who can perform the varied
roles of the NIO for Warning (Attachments C and D). While currently
active civilian and military intelligence officers would be the
logical candidates, qualified retired officers will not be excluded
from consideration.
3. Please assist me in the selection of an NIO for Warning by
forwarding nominations to me or directly to Chairman, Warning
Working Group.
Attachments:
As stated
Upon Removal of Attachments
Regrade as UNCLASSIFIED
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SUBJECT: National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Distribution:
Orig & 1 - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - EXDIR
1 - ER
1 - DDI
1 - C/NIC
1 - NIO/W
1 - NIO/W Chrono
1 - DDI Registry
-2-
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The Director of Central Intelligence
as rgRLA e)$0-
MEMORANDUM FOR: The National Foreign.Intelligence Board
FROM : Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT : Decision on Warning Working Group Report
1. My discussion and consideration of the warning issues has
continued in a variety of forums since we reviewed the Working Group
Report at the 19 January NFIB. Drawing upon the report for a frame of
reference, I have made the following decisions:
a. We should consider the National Intelligence Warning
System as defined in the current DCID to be composed of
the separate warning activities in the Intelligence
Community components plus the NIO for Warning.
b. The mission of the system is to advise and assist the
Director of Central Intelligence in the discharge of his
duties and responsibilities with respect to warning
intelliqence and to coordinate the warning activities of
the Intelligence Community.
c. The basic warning mission will be as defined in DCID 1/5:
"to avoid surprise to the President, the NSC, and the
Armed Forces of the United States by foreign events of
major importance..." That mission and definition will be
expanded as appropriate to ensure attention to more slowly
developing, longer-term intelligence problems relating to
the security of the United States. The warning mission
will give highest priority to warning of an attack on the
US or its allies.
d. The Deputy Director of Central Intelligence will oversee
the National Intelligence Warning System with the advice
of the National Foreign Intelligence Board.
e. The position of National Intelligence Officer for Warning
will be a full-time position. His mission is to advise
and assist the Director and Deputy Director of Central
Intelligence on all matters relating to warning, to
coordinate national intelligence warning activities, and
to serve as a focal point for warning in the Community.
He will to the maximum extent rely on existing
organizations in carrying out his duties. His
responsibilities are:
All Portions of This Memorandum
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(1) To oversee analysis of intelligence from all sources
which might provide warning. In particular, he
should be alert to alternate interpretations within
the Community and assess these with a view to the
need for issuance of warning. He should encourage
consultation and substantive discussion at all levels
in the Community.
(2) To recommend to the Director or Deputy Director of
Central Intelligence the issuance of warning to the
President and National Security Council, and to
ensure the dissemination of such warning within and
by the organizations of the Intelligence Community.
When time is of the essence, the National
Intelligence Officer may issue such warning directly
to the President and the National Security Council,
with concurrent dissemination to the Director and
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence and senior
officers of the Intelligence Community.
(3) To advise the Chairman, National Intelligence Council
and the DCI Watch Committee on appropriate Community
response to developing warning situations.
(4) To support the Deputy Director of Central
Intelligence and the National Foreign Intelligence
Board on warning matters.
(5) To chair the Warning Working Group.
(6) To oversee the warning activities of the National
Intelligence Officers.
(7) To supervise the National Warning Staff.
(8) To arrange for intelligence research and production
with respect to strategic warning.
(9) To develop a warning consciousness and discipline
throughout the Community.
(10) To seek improvements in methodologies and procedures
for warning, including communications and
dissemination of information.
(11) To arrange with appropriate organizations of the,
government for provision to the National Intelligence
Officer for Warning and the Warning Staff of the
information they need to carry out their mission.
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(12) To promote improved analyst training in indications
and warning techniques and in other analytic
techniques that might contribute to improved warning.
(13) To advise the Director, Intelligence Community Staff
and the chairmen of the collection requirements
committees, as appropriate, on warning activities
that relate to their responsibilities.
f. The Warning Working Group, chaired by the National
Intelligence Officer for Warning, will assist him in
carrying out his responsibilites and in coordinating
Community warning activities. Its Members shall be senior
officers of the Defense Intelligence Agency; National
Security Agency; Central Intelligence Agency; Bureau of
Intelligence and Research, Department of State; Office of
the Secretary of Defense; and the Intelligence Community
Staff. The Chairman shall invite representatives of other
departments and agencies to attend when matters of concern
to them are discussed.
q. The National Intelligence Officers continue to be charged
with substantive responsibility for warning in their
respective fields. They will conduct Community-wide
reviews at least monthly of situations potentially
requiring the issuance of warning, and will keep the
Director of Central Intelligence advised of the results,
in consultation with the National Intelligence Officer for
Warning. They will be continually alert to the need for
immediate issuance of warning.
h. The Strategic Warning Staff is disestablished.
i. A National Warning Staff is established to support the
National Intelligence Officer for Warning. This will be a
small staff with appropriate representation from the
Intelligence Community.
j. DCID 1/5 will be revised and reissued to bring it into
accord with the decisions described above and with the
current structure of the Intelligence Community.
2. The Chairman, National Intelligence Council and the National
Intelligence Officer for Warning will work with you to implement these
decisons.
William J. Casey
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WA TT A
T
T V
C
MEN
DCI TALKING POINTS
ON WARNING
NFIB 8 June 1982
(Not Used)
1. Decision Memo on warning completes a series of efforts to improve our
ability to produce warning intelligence.
A. New initiatives in research support production of warning.
1. Center for Terrorism Instability and Insurgency will identify
causes and indicators of change.
2. Intelligence Producers Council will coordinate Community
research efforts on Third World and Soviet Bloc developments
having warning implications.
B. NIO's will identify mid- to long-term warning situations through
their estimates and monthly warning meetings.
C. Watch Committee will highlight short-term warning developments.
D. Alerting of fast breaking events will continue to be the function
of our Ops Centers through the use of procedures such as CRITICS
and NIOWONs.
II. NIO for Warning and National Warning Staff will oversee and advise
all the above.
A. Identify events and alternative outcomes not given adequate
hearing in standard products.
B. Participate in and contribute to the production of estimates and
Watch Committee reports.
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C. Nominate, contribute, participate, conduct or coordinate specific
research projects on warning matters.
D. Draw upon the results and products of individual agency and
departmental warning activities, but not rely exclusively on
their efforts. The whole should be greater than the sum of the
parts.
III. The Warning Working Group will be retained to assist the NIO/W. I
look to them to carry out the implementation of this decision.
IV. Warning function and Warning Staff will continue to be a Community
effort.
A. Warning function will be lodged in the National Intelligence
Council.
B. NIO/W will be a full time position.
C. Composition, size and location of the staff will be worked out by
Warning Working Group.
V. The Warning mission will continue to be to insure "no surprise" to
the President, NSC and Armed Forces. Obviously warning of an attack
on the US or its allies is first priority; however, we must also
address slowly-developing, longerl-term threats to US security--
within the warning context.
VI. The Alert Memorandum will be retained as a warning medium, but it is
not the exclusive one since both estimates and the Watch Committee
reports will have warning content. Other means of conveying the
warning message will be employed when needed. Content, not form, is
what is important.
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 CONFIDENTIAL
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14 July 1982
The National Intelligence Officer for Warning will be the Director's
personal representative and will report directly to the DCI.
Any tasking the NIO for Warning levies on elements of the Intel-
ligence Community will be subject to DCI approval and will pass through
normal command channels of the NFIB member agencies.
The NIO for Warning is expected to maintain extensive informal
contacts with elements of the NFIB agencies and others in the official
and private sectors in pursuit of his responsibilities.
The NIO for Warning will assist the Director in:
-- indentifying the requirements for warning,
-- evaluation of warning products and programs,
identifying uncertainties requiring guidance
on collection, analysis or production.
(See current draft of DCID 1/5 for further details)
The NIO for Warning will be supported by an Assistant NIO for
Warning and the National Warning Staff. The A/NIO for Warning serves
as the NIO for Warning's alter ergo and acts in his behalf when the NIO
is absent.
The National Warning Staff performs those functions and tasks
assigned by the NIO for Warning in the accomplishment of his
responsibilities.
Tasks illustrative of the staff's activities are to monitor
warning related events and Community production, prepare papers
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outlining important developments, implications, explanations or
hypothesis not fully addressed in Community publications, assist and
coordinate NIO Monthly Warning Meetings, coordinate production of
Alert Memoranda, review National Estimates for appropriate warning
implications, recommend agenda items to the Watch Committee,
coordinate and support production of the Community General Indicator
List, conduct research on warning matters, support Community training
programs, participate in Community post-mortems on crises and warning
performance, and support Community developments in warning-related
collection, processing and analysis.
The warning staff will devote particular attention to providing
a safeguard second look at current developments of potential warning
significance. It will provide a balance to current intelligence
production by selectively performing the challenge function, primarily
by developing alternative interpretations of information and events
that address the potential for surprise, especially in matters of
greatest consequence for US security interests. The NIO/W and his
staff will promote sensitivity to the "lessons" of previous warning
episodes, in particular, the crucial importance of making explicit
the analytical assumptions that underlie prevailing evaluations and
estimates.
It is proposed that the National Warning Staff be composed of
three professional intelligence officers on rotational assignment with
appropriate clerical support and that the personnel needs be reevaluated
periodically.
CONFIDENT'"`
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