NIO MONTHLY WARNING REPORTS - AUGUST 1981

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000100090002-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 30, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: August 28, 1981
• Content Type: MF

SECRET NOFORN
Approvec* rRRIease 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP83B00100090002-6
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
NFAC #5458-81
28 August 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM : National Intelligence Officer
for Warning
SUBJECT : NIO Monthly Warning Reports - August 1981
k
1. The reports of the NIO monthly warning meetings are
attached.
2. There are several issues that I wish to note.
a. Poland
The deteriorating economic situation and Solidarity's
demands for greater access to the media and a larger voice
in industrial management points toward ever more serious
tests of strength and will over the next few months. The
government's ability to buy peace with increased food or
decreased work schedules is limited by economic realities.
The government's ability or willingness to meet other
Solidarity demands will be limited by Communist Party
perceptions of its power and the government's sovereignty.
Accelerating economic problems, public frustrations, and the
possibility of misjudgments by all elements remain incal-
culable elements in the Polish crisis.
b. Israel-Lebanon-PLO
The fragile truce between Israel and the PLO roul --I
be shattered in the next few weeks_
SECRET NOFORN
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NFAC #5458-81
SUBJECT: NIO Monthly Warning, Reports - August 1981 28 August 1981
C. El Salvador
The success of the leftist guerrillas in imposing
increasing casualties on the security forces and in disrupting
much of the country's electrical power supply has increasingly.
demoralized government forces. These pressures may trigger
retaliatory actions that would not only damage the government's
credibility at home and abroad but impose dangerous strains
between military and civilian members of the regime. If the
guerrilla campaign of disruption and destruction continues
for 3-4 months--reportedly their intention--the military's
long-standing distrust of civilian politicans would galvanize
the military leaders into ousting the civilians.
d. North Korea
The recent SA-2 attack against the SR-71 is only one, 25X1
albeit a dramatic one, of several unusual North Korean activities. 25X1
There has been an increase in North Korean-South Korean.fishin
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boat incidents, a spate of DMZ ground force activity,
e. Egypt
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Attachment
SECRET NOFORN
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Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000100090002-6