SITUATION OF CONCERN (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200010002-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: December 29, 1978
• Content Type: MF

SECRET NFAC #5900-78
Approved For Rtase 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B01027FW0200010002-3
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA : Acting Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
FROM : Richard Lehman
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
1. Action Requested: None; this memorandum is to alert you
to three developing situations that could require your attention
in the next few days.
2. Background: Vietnam-China-USSR. We are beginning to see
the first indications of a substantial Chinese infantry movement in
the south. If we are able to confirm that these movements are indeed
taking place and are toward the Vietnamese border, there is at least
some possibility that the Soviets will begin military posturing against
China. We will want to consider whether to issue an alert memorandum
once we know that the Chinese troop movements have taken place. I
have asked tha troops to notify me and may subsequently be in touch
with you. IuI
3. Iran. The Administration's concentration on the Shah's
dilemma and what appears yet again to be the final act in this drama
should not blind us to the complex economic consequences of a change
of regimes in Iran. OER is engaged in a joint effort with State,
Energy, and Treasury at the working level to assess some of these
consequences. I am not sure what opportunity the President and his
advisers have had to think about these things. I have therefore asked
OER to do PDB pieces, probably annexes, over the next few days on the
otential impact
an on a sort of worry list" of possible deve op-
ments in suc ie ds as balance of payments, strength of the dollar,
US investments, and of course the long-term international oil market. F
Approved For Release 2005/01/06: CIA-RDP8~
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4. Korea. PACOM is somewhat concerned over the activation
of a few indicators of North Korean military activity. PACOM would
normally view this as we do -- no real pattern and negative returns
on all the most important indicators, thus cause for heightened in-
terest but no great concern. PACOM feels slightly more vulnerable,
however, because one of its carrier task forces has been diverted
south as a contingency preparation against the Iranian situation.
We will be watching this closely over the weekend and will alert you
if necessary. u
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Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200010002-3
SECRET
 Approved For R?'ase 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B01027F0200010002-3
Korea. PACOM is somewhat concerned over the activ
of a few i aators of North Korean military acti C0?1 would
normally view bits--aswe do -- no real and negative returns
terest but no great concet-fuels slightly more vulnerable,
however, because o its carrier task 1D has been diverted
south as a co 'ngency preparation against the Irani -i -tjt
We will atchin this closely over the weekend and will ale
if ssary.
Rilcho'rd L hm
Distribution:
1 - DCI
1-DDCI'
1 - ER
- D/NFAC
- I&W (General) File
1 - NIO/W Chrono
1 - NFAC Registry
Approved For Release 2005/01/ RDP83BO1027R000200010002-3
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