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December 16, 2016
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January 3, 2005
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October 27, 1978
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PDF icon CIA-RDP83B01027R000200010012-2.pdf213.98 KB
CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027FM0200010012-2 NFAC #4768-78 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE National Intelligence Officers MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of C'4ntral Intelligen THROUGH : Director, National Foreign Assessment C Executive Rciiistry National Intelligence Officer for Warning SUBJECT : NIO Warning Meetings 1. Action Requested: None; for your information. 2. Background: Seven NIOs have held their first monthly warn- ing meetings to date. The Soviet meeting, which will include strategic programs and conventional forces as well, will take place next week. We are not yet clear how the latter two will relate to this program, nor how will manage his warning role. 3. I have attached the first 3 memoranda to emerge from this operation. The African and Latin American papers seem to me very good. The proliferation one is less useful, but this may be a function of the subject matter. I will forward the others as they emerge. 4. We have anticipated that the initial round will be quite uneven and will be meeting next week in an attempt to get some common understanding of what we are after. Uniformity is not to be expected, however, because of the great differences among the areas. Western Europe and China in particular are difficult to handle by this approach and we may want to modify it for them. The real test will be how to keep the readers' attention after repetition sets in in the third or fourth month. 5. Preliminary returns across the Community are mixed, ranging from enthusiastic at having these discussions to a feeling that we ourselves are confused as to what we are after. I do not propose to give these views much weight until the system shakes down. 25X1 Approved For Release 2005 jp?DEPIJ1 DP83BO11027R000200010012-2 Approved For ReWase 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027F db200010012-2 6. I hope these memoranda will, as a byproduct, contribute to your sense of what to worry about in the areas of concern that you cannot give much attention to from day to day. 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/QOM ?IRDP83B01027R000200010012-2 DCI Approved For Release 2 0 0 4 1 027R000200010012-2 THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE National Intelligence Officers MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence NFAC-4685778 24 October 1,978 THROUGH . Director, National Foreign Assessment Center National Intelligence Officer for Warningw,L FROM . Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America SUBJECT . Latin America -- Warning of Impending Developments 1. Action Requested: None; for your information only. 2. Background: The convergence of severe economic, social, and political problems suggest that political turmoil will characterize the nations of Central America over the next 60 to 90 days. Challenges to government stability will be particularly strong in Nicaragua, where the FSLN plans to launch another guerrilla attack from Honduras and Costa Rica with logistic support from Venezuela and Panama. In preparation for this attack, President Somoza is doubling his National Guard, but the loyalty of new recruits and their military capacity is questionable. We should anticipate that Somoza might call on the OAS to protect his country from military incursions from his neighbors -- a step which could place the US in the awkward position of voting in the OAS to protect Somoza. 3. The Nicaraguan situation is causing consternation in El Salvador, where the stability of the government is precarious. This tiny, over- populated country is next to the poorest in Latin America. Demographic problems create pressures difficult to contain. There are currently 205 persons per square kilometer in El Salvador compared to 25 elsewhere in Central America, and 12 elsewhere in Latin America. With its current birthrate of 2.9% per annum, the population density will increase to 297 by 1990. Terrorism has been on the upswing for the last two to three years with political figures and the prominent families which control the economy the prime targets. There are indications that some of the prominent families are preparing to abandon the country with as much of their wealth as they can muster unless outside help can be obtained to control terrorism. 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83B01077R(00200010019-9 Approved For Release 2005/CR/- '~I? -RDP83B01027I 60200010012-2 4. Elsewhere in Latin America there is a potential for conflict between Argentina and Nlp over the Beagle l despite the negotiations in train. Argentine military movements in the vicinity of the Chilean border. While this may be an Argentine tactic to intimidate Chile, it could result in frontier clashes and possibly in Argentine occupation of the contested islands in the Beagle Channel. While these islands are of no strategic importance to the US and US national interests are not directly affected, the US could become involved in restoring peace to the area. 5. Finally, the economic situation continues to deteriorate in Peru, and there is some possibility Peru will default on its IMF commitments. Peru is not quite poor enough to benefit from low-interest loans available to the poorest nations, but its per capita income is rapidly descending to that point. In 1976 the per capita income was $800. A year later it was $740. By this year it dropped to $680. At this rate it will cross the poverty line of $580 by August 1979, or possibly even before because of the drought. Only at this point will Peru be able to apply for low-interest loans. Peru's grave economic condition will prevent that country from embarking on a military adventure in Chile, should there be a conflict between Chile and Argentina. 6. The above judgements are made as a result of consultations on 19 October 1978 with the "Latinos", the senior intelligence analysts and collectors in the intelligence community who specialize in Latin America. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200010012-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200010012-2 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200010012-2 SECRE Approved For Rele - 7R000200010012-2 THE D LLIGENCE National Intelligence Officers MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intellig NFAC 46/41-78 20 Oct;ber 1978 VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment National Intelligence Officer for Warning f?,L FROM: National Intelligence Officer for Nuclear Proliferation SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Report (Initial)--Nuclear Proliferation 1. Action Requested: None; for your information only in conjunction with the new procedures for warning intelligence. 2. Background: I convened a meeting of the Interagency Intelligence Working Group on Nuclear Proliferation (IIWG/NP) on 18 October to identify possible items for this report and to introduce Richard Lehman (NIO/W) who led a discussion of the procedures and criteria for warning. The discussion during the two and one-half hour meeting was about one-half substantive and one-half procedural. 3. Among the numerous items discussed, several are worth noting: 25X1 #3 25X1-< Approved For Release 200olO 1106 m CIA-Rut-83130 102 7 K0002000 100 127-2 Approved For R'ease 2005/01/OP.IA-RDP83B01027RT`00200010012-2 25X1 4. Attached is a checklist of the kinds of items on which warning would be desirable in the area of nuclear proliferation according to the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. The list should be expanded to include the following: --Preparations for the deployment or employment of suspected nuclear weapons by a non-weapon state anywhere and of known nuclear weapons by a nuclear weapon state in a nuclear weapon free zone or against a non-weapon state. --Indications that anti-nuclear political forces or movements will nullify the authority of important governments. --Plans for the disclosure or transfer of critical technology for nuclear weapons, reprocessing, ehment, pieavy water production. 25X1 Attachment: Checklist Approved For Release 2005/01 SE ARDP83BOl027R000200010012-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200010012-2 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/01/06 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200010012-2