POLISH TRENDS AND SOVIET UNION PERCEPTIONS AND REACTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200020011-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: September 19, 1980
• Content Type: MF

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19 September 1980
ALERT MEMORANDUM
MEMORANDUM FOR: National Security Council
SUBJECT: Polish Trends and Soviet Union Perceptions
and Reactions
Soviet military activity eads
me to believe that the Soviet leadership is preparing to intervene
militarily in Poland if the Polish situation is not brought under
control in a manner satisfactory to Moscow. Recent events in
Poland itself suggest that the Kania regime may rjunter severe
difficulties in meeting Moscow's requirements.
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I-IAM- - J
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
19 September 1980
ALERT MEMORANDUM*
Polish Trends and Soviet Union Perceptions and Reactions
The Soviets are likely to
give Kania some additional time to master the situation. But
if current trends continue unabated and the Polish Party's
control over the nation or Poland's role in the Warsaw Pact are
called into question, the Soviets will threaten or employ
military force.
*The Alert Memorandum is an interagency publication issued by the
Director of Central Intelligence on behalf of the Intelligence
Community. Its purpose is to ensure that senior poZieymakers are
aware of impending potential developments that may have serious
implications for US interests. It is not a prediction that these
developments will occur. This memorandum has been coordinated at
the working ZeveZ with CIA, DIA, NSA, Army, Air Force, State/INR,
and the Strategic Warning Staff.
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The Soviets have publicly endorsed Kania and could hardly have
expected him to have brought the situation under control within
two weeks of his appointment. The situation has continued to deteri-
orate, and another confrontation between the regime and workers
cannot be ruled out. A renewed confrontation could be precipitated
by the workers' insist on the prompt establishment
of a nationwide union organization and/or by[ I
0 call for renewed job actions if they decide that the regime has
not made adequate progress in registering trade unions by 15 October.
Unless the regime can reverse current trends there is a high prob-
ability that the Soviet Union will escalate its political and mili-
tary pressure on Poland. If the Soviet Union concludes the regime
is losing control of the country or that Poland's loyalty to
Warsaw Pact is in question, they will intervene militarily. II
In the immediate future Moscow will mount increased public warnings
and heightened propaganda campaigns decrying the new unions, and may
arrange visits to Warsaw by high-level Soviet leaders. Moscow will
also continue to take measures to enhance its readiness to intervene
militarily in Poland.
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There are important considerations which argue against Soviet
intervention. Either with or without the cooperation of the Kania
regime, military intervention undoubtedly would be perceived in
Moscow as a last resort. Nevertheless, the geopolitical importance
of Poland and Moscow's determination to preserve Soviet influence
in the bloc will be overriding considerations. I I
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