PROPOSED ALERT MEMORADUM ON IRAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200040004-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: November 22, 1978
• Content Type: MF

NFAC# 5242-78
Approved For 'ease 2007/03/0 P83B01027 0020004 8
SECRET CC 7d"' 25X1
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA . Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for the
Near East and South Asia
Acting National intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT : Proposed Alert Memorandum on Iran
1. Action Requested: DCI approval for production of an Alert
Memorandum on Iran.
2. Background: The Shia Muslim holy month of Muharram is likely to
bring an especially severe challenge to the military government in Iran.
I believe it would be useful to our consumers to underscore with a Community
publication:
a. The critical nature of the period around 11 December.
b. The key factors that will determine the direction events
will go.
c. The likely near-term political ramifications if the Shah
survives or does not survive.
3. I propose that this memorandum be drafted by NFAC's Iran Analytical
Center. A suggested outline is attached (Tab A). This paper could be
coordinated by the Community and issued on 30 November.
4. Recommendation: That DCI approve production of an alert Memorandum
on Iran. F-- I 25X1
A4
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 Approved For F&se 2007/03/09 : CIA-RDP83BO102710200040004-8
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
1-ER
1 - D/NFAC
1 - Acting NIO/Warning
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - NFAC Registry
Approved For Release 2007/03/.09.: CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200040004-8
 Approved Fo elease 2007/03/09: CIA-RDP83BO10 8000200040004-8
Proposed Outline of Alert Memorandum on Iran
INTRODUCTION
Moharram -- especially severe challenge by 11 December
Will be test of:
-- Ability and determination of opposition
Ability of military to keep order.
Morale and loyalty of military
Shah's leadership
Factors Determining Outcome
Strength of Opposition Challenge
Khomeini
-- National Front
- Radical opposition, including Tudeh
-- Disorganized opposition
Effort to Maintain Security
Military/security capabilities
-- Military loyalty
Approved For Release 2007/03/09 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200040004-8
 Approved For F*se 2007/03/09 : CIA-RDP83B010271D 200040004-8
Lack of Political Options
-- Tried appeasement, co-optation
-- Resorted to martial law, military government
-- Dual strategy seen as weakness
Shah's leadership
Inconstancy of mood and policy
Possibility of more assertive leadership
Possibility of abdication
Near-term Political Ramifications
If Shah Perseveres
Extended military government.
Restored civilian government
If Shah Does Not Survive
Military takeover
- Other outcomes
Likely Soviet Behavior
SECRET)
Approved For Release 2007/03/09 CIA-RDP83B01027R000200040004-8