THE DCI ROLE IN 'WARNING' AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200110002-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 2, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 27, 1978
• Content Type: PAPER

Approved For Rose 200R/t1 /211 6WRI 3B01027F200110002-27 V6
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WORKING PAPER
27 April 1978
The DCI Role in "Warning" and Crisis Management
I. Some Definitions
A. Current Intelligence is that intelligence relating
to events -- the facts, the background, the reasons
why, the projection of what is likely to happen or
could happen in the short term, and, above all, the
significance for US interests.
B. Warning is that element of current intelligence.that
relates to the short-term projection noted above,
especially when an important US interest may be
seriously affected or threatened. Under this def-
inition, Warning can extend from such things as
political instability in an LDC that can threaten US
lives or business interests to an increase in the
price of OPEC oil, to the outbreak of hostilities
in the Middle East, to Soviet mobilization in Eastern
y
~
defined in `B' above that relates to the possibility
of military involvement of the US and/or its allies
with a foreign power (in practice,.the USSR and its
East European allies,.China, or North Korea). It
will be noted that some warning situations can evolve
into strategic warnin situations, as in the 1973
war. In fact, we an the Soviets) normally.think
of the threat of hostilities with the Soviet Union
arising out of a situation of political tension,
presumably resulting from the escalation of a crisis
of less major proportions. Nevertheless, strategic
warning also includes warning of the so-called bolt
from the blue nuclear attack.
C. Strategic Wa
rn
ing is that element of warning as
D. Tactical Warning is that element of strategic warn-
i that relates to the immediate outbrea ofhos-
tilities, e.g., the movement of ground forces across
a frontier or the actual launch of ICBMs. Tactical
warning is a DoD responsibility and is outside the
scope of this paper.
Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200110002-2
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 Approved For Rose 2004 'l%9. 1: 86 RUP> 3B01027RS200110002-2
E. Crisis Management for intelligence refers to those
activities conducted by. the Intelligence Community
to assist the national authorities in the period
from the first provision of warning (of develop-
ments of major concern to the US authorities) to
the period of tactical warning.
Question: Is this framework valid?
II. Responsibilities of the DCI
A. It is well established that the DCI is responsible
for provision of national intelligence, i.e., that
intelligence needed by the President and.the NSC for
the formulation of policy. It is generally accepted
that this responsibility includes the provision of
current intelligence and of warning. Most would
also agree that the DCI is responsible for strategic
warning, that being the principal reason that his jb
was established. But at least some would argue.that
at some undefined point.the responsibility for
strategic warning should pass to the DOD. It is my
view that the DCI's responsibility for strategic
warning extends to the point that tactical warning
is provided.
B. The-DCI's responsibilities in crisis management,
whether in a situation calling for warning or stra-
tegic warning, are:
1) to participate in the NSC/SCC deliberations;
2) to provide intelligence analyses needed by
the NSC/SCC;
3) to provide periodic situation reporting to
the NSC/SCC, usually to the concerned depart-
ments and agencies in Washington, and often
to major US commands overseas and our allies;
and,
4) to adjust the deployment of intelligence
collection resources to meet the requirements
of the crisis.
E.O. 12036 envisages a possible transfer of the DCI's
tasking authority to the Secretary of Defense at some
point in the development of a crisis. If we accept
the view that the DCI is responsible for strategic
.warning until the virtual outbreak of hostilities,
.such a transfer should not take place until that time
or shortly before,
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Approved For Release 2004/12/22 : CIA-RDP83BO1027R000200110002-2
Internal Use Only