WARNING WORKING GROUP MEETING (V) - 1 DECEMBER 1978

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000200140015-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: December 1, 1978
• Content Type: MIN

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Warning Working Group Meeting (V) - 1 December 1978
1. Final draft on SWS study is being distributed today.
2. Consensus on substance of report. Option paper format. Preferred
recommendation and lesser recommendations.
3. Meeting next Wednesday to do final words. In-hand by week from
this next Monday.
Lehman
1. Purpose of meeting?
Lehman
2 topics:
1. The report on SWS and where we are goint with it.
2. What our role ought to be in WISP.
Getting briefing on WISP and where it stands next week and use it as
background.
1. Service intelligence agencies want to be sure that they get in on
the discussion at some point (DCID 1/5).
Oleson
Brown also wants to make sure that DCID 1/5 is formally coordinated.
Lehman
1. It will be sent out to NFIB for formal coordination and that brings
them in.
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2. Next Friday, have a briefing on WISP. Other topic to discuss
this month is alert memo procedures. Skip 15 and 22 December meetings.
3. First alert memo was issued yesterday. Tried to follow old pro-
cedures. Thought another format might be in order.
4. Find out whether any particular problems came up about this from
each agency.
6. Suggest we put together a small gorup of his desk officer in DDO,
someone from NITC, some analysts from DIA and CIA to work out strategy.
1. On monthly working group meetings of NIOs, are DDO people sitting
2. DIA has problem. We don't have any viability into what they can
and cannot do. DDO could talk about the capability of collecting against
the issue.
Do we need to change the wording of these two questions?
1. Yes; how much warning of an attack can the US expect vs. how
much Soviet preparation for war can the US expect.
1. How much warning time.
Baraz
1. Until we have much sharper tasking in mind and ongoing projects,
this is probably a clean, general statement that won't constrain us.
I A
1. Share the same feelings.
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01 eson
1.
Change active and passive to camouflage, concealment and deception.
Baraz
1.
Changes in normal practice does not really involve CC&D.
1.
NIE
4-1 is a snapshot of today only.
I
1.
Is this wording adequate for the next 4-month period to continue
to drive the CC&D collection effort?
1. 4-1 obligates the Community to a further study of this.
Lehman
1. It does. We (WWG) need to sort this out.
2. The words we have are good enough for the time being.
I :A
1. NITs doe not adequately address DoD needs. 4-1 is a dangerous
document in some aspects. We have simplified the questions so much that
it hides all the problems.
Lehman
1. This says this subject is of the highest priority (in general
terms). We need to break this down into a series of topics and aim
toward a projective 4-1 somewhere doen the line but doing the building
blocks for it first. The NITs are necessary but we should keep them
short and general.
25
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Political Warning Question
1. Checked with NIOs about monthly meetings. Where do you stand and
do you have any candidates for warning? LA thought they had one or two
prospects. P/E was concerned about shutdown of Iranian oil production.
NIO/NESA was concerned about 0 Talked to Carlucci about it
generally and asked how he would propose we handle these if something
came up. Didn't have any firm guidance at that point. Had read material
on alert memorandam and he wasn't ready to endorse it fully. For the
time being, let's proceed with that.
2. This was same time that analytic task group was formed and leaks
began to come out. Carlucci was very concerned about how we would ease
the Community into a new discipline idea and how you make the initiation
into new practices without subjecting yourself to ridicule from past
experiences. Overall impression is that Carlucci is seriously worrying
with the problem. Anxious to here from us on how to use the weight of
his office to get these things done.
Lehman
Baraz
an
1. Why is this/alert memo rather than a SNIE?
X1
X1
Lehman
1. Turned out to be a lot longer than I thought it should be. Point
is well taken. If there is time to take, SNIE. is probably the better
route. Alert Memo probably should be about 2 pages in the future.
2. Into second rounds of NIO meetings. Any further difficulties at
this stage?
1. Saw paper. Thought he probably went a little too far into
the realm o possibilities. Predicting a series of disasters. Would
have scared a consumer to death.
01 eson
1. Put caveat on the front of the warning memo to assure the context
of the paper is written in.
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1. Will preserve flexibility in style for the NIO as well.
Lehman
1. Good idea and will implement it.
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