MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120019-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 19
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120019-5
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
26 February 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director for National Foreign Assessment
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Robert C. Ames
National Intelligence Officer for Near East and
South Asia
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
1. Saudi Arabia - Crown Prince Fahd is facing heightened diffi-
culties with his health or his pro-US policies, or both. If he is in
fact seriously ill (he has a history of diabetes and related problems),
the succession problem-given King Khalid's own state of health-will
have to be confronted again and may cause new strains within the royal
family. If Fahd suffers only a "diplomatic illness," postponement of
his visit to Washington may reflect increasingly widespread unhappiness
in the Saudi royal family and government with Fahd's "special relation-
ships" policy vis-a-vis the US. Either set of circumstances will
weaken Fahd's position and the Saudis' inclination to cooperate easily
with the US.
2. Lebanon - The Christian militias are stepping up training and
rearming, with Israeli assistance, in anticipation of another confronta-
tion with the Syrians. The Christian leadership remains adamant that
the Syrians must leave Lebanon. The Syrians
are just as intransigent. Unless the Lebanese government is a e o
field a meaningful army to replace the Syrians at various "hot points"
the renewed daily flare ups will, once again, break out into full-scale
battles that will occur not only in Beirut, but also in North Lebanon,
where the Syrians have strengthened their presence.
3. Morocco - Continued strikes staged by leftist controlled unions,
coupled with a poor economic performance and an apparent no-win war in
the Sahara, are a cause for the concern about the stability of Morocco.
The morale of the army, in the wake of the government's indecision on
response to Polisario raids, continues to decline. To date no single
issue has coalesced these factors into a crisis, but the longer they
simmer, the more likely an issue, probably Sahara-related, will emerge.
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4. Iran - Khomeini does not appear to be in full control in the
highly radicalized environment in Iran. The strength of the left is
growing and coalescing, while it must appear to them that Khomeini is
indecisive and organizationally weak. It appears Khomeini will either
have to negotiate with the left--thereby lending it legitimacy-or
challenge it. Because he has no organized military or security force,
a challenge could lead to all out civil war, which the left is better
organized to handle. Unless Khomeini lets Bazargan start running the
country and reorganizing the military quickly, the left will soon be in
a position to call for inclusion in the government or a fight.
6. Pakistan - The potential for civil unrest and political insta-
bility is high. If Presidegt Zia has former Prime Minister Bhutto
executed, Bhutto's followers may take to the streets. If Bhutto is
spared, the Army leadership will be reinforced its unhappiness with
Zia and more inclined to move against him.
7. Iraq-Syria Rapprochement - The surprisingly rapid pace of
cooperation between Iraq and Syria back in November and December waned
considerably when the Egyptian-Israeli treaty negotiations stagnated.
However, rapprochement could be given renewed impetus if an Egyptian-
Israeli treaty is signed or if Iraq becomes even more concerned about
the potential for instability from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Robert C. Ames
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Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120019-5
 Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120019-5
Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120019-5