MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120029-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 29
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120029-4
MEMORANDUM FOR: N10/k)
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F
FORS Io' USE ITPRE V IOUS
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0.
NFAC #0327/79
19 January 1979
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA . Deputy Director for National
Foreign Assessment
NIO for Warning
FROM . NIO for Near East and South Asia,
SUBJECT : Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East
and South Asia
Summary. Some disturbing signs exist regarding internal stability
of the monarchy in Morocco and, to a lesser extent, President Sadat's
regime in Egypt. Potentially, however, the most destabilizing event
in the Middle East is, paradoxically, the increasing rapprochement
between Syria and Iraq. Conventional wisdom rejects the likelihood of
formal unification of these two Ba'thist rivals, yet the momentum of
cooperation between them has been maintained since the Baghdad Summit
in November 1978. The reaction of Israel to this rapprochement merits
close attention, particularly if the PLO and Jordan join in or are
dragged along.
1. Morocco. A series of disturbing events have increased our
concern of testability of the monarchy: more leftist activity
(students and labor); continued poor economic performance; its solitary
position on the Western Sahara; and deteriorating morale in the Army,
bogged down in the Western Sahara. In light of events in Iran, it is
worth noting that there exists a certain degree of contagion in the
overthrow of monarchies.
2. Al eriiaa. Events following the death of Algerian President
Boumediene o- n 2 December 1978 have confirmed the assessment in our
last warning meeting that we will see collegial rule in Algeria until
a dominant figure emerges, with no major policy changes in the interim.
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? SECRET ?
3. Syria-Iraq Rapprochement, In November 1978 we noted the
radicalization of the Arab moderates as a result of their weak
performance at the Baghdad Summit. We continue to be concerned by
the additional steps toward rapprochement between Syria and Iraq.
There is a possibility of effective and lasting Syrian-Iraqi
cooperation-military, economic, and political. President Bakr's
trip to Damascus next week should produce something tangible in
cooperation between the two countries; additionally, the PLO and
Jordan may well be brought in on the latter part of the "summit."
The implications of all this involve possible future Israeli (military)
reaction. The Israelis might not allow the Iraqis to fill the cur-
rently unexplained, division-size gap in Syrian defensive positions
on the southern Golan Heights.
4. E_ggyyppt. As in Morocco, there are some disturbing signs
about inter stability. the rise in consumer prices; a resurgence
of the Muslim Brotherhood; clashes between Copts and Muslims; and
the stalled peace negotiations with Israel (which is causing some
Egyptians to question Sadat's policy, even though Sadat apparently
feels the delay is working to his advantage). In light of events in
Iran, Sadat sees himself as the new policeman in the region--witness
his decision to send 200 tanks to Somalia. Sadat is good at balancing
problems but he may be getting close to the point when he has too
many balls in the air. The regional role he perceives for himself
may blind him to internal developments.
5. Lebanon. Signs in the south are ominous again, and the north
is marked-Fy procrastination. With the return of good weather in
March and April, we expect to see hostilities being renewed as the
Christians again try to get rid of the Syrians. Sarkis' weakness
during the current lull in fighting means another wasted opportunity
for some sort of solution.
6. The Yemens. We have inadequate reporting to determine
exactly who is fig ting whom. (The Italians may be able to give us
more information because of the pervasiveness of Italian workers in
the PDRY.) Nonetheless, we retain our longstanding cynical view that
a coup in either Yemen is possible on just about any particular day.
7. Libya. Coup rumors are rampant again. Since we believe
that Qadha i is probably aware of the same coup rumors, the only
possible successful coup will be staged by a group we won't know
about until after the coup. The report of two squadrons of North
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Korean-piloted aircraft coming soon to Libya is an ominous sign.
Against whom might they fly--Egypt? Sudan?
8. Pakistan. The Supreme Court may return a decision on the
Bhutto case this month. Any decision will increase the likelihood
of political instability and civil disorder. If Bhutto is executed,
his followers may take to the streets; if he is spared, the Army
leadership will be reinforced in its unhappiness with President Zia
and more inclined to move against him.
Robert Ames
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 Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120029-4
SUBJECT: Monthly Warning Assessment: Near East and South Asia
Distribution:
DCI
DDCI
ER
D/NFAC
NIO/W
NIO/PE
NIO/USSR
NIO/CH
NIO/CF
NIO/NP
NIO/LA
NIO/EAP
NIO/WE
NIO/AF
NIO/SS
D/OCO
D/OCR
D/OER
D/ORPA
D/OSR
D/OGCR
D/OIA
D/OSI
D/OWI
NIO/NESA
NFAC Re ig stry
DDO/NE
25X1
25X1
Phil Griffin, a e
DIA 25X1
2oA]
Cat Ron Bergquist, Air Force
Lt. Col. Norvell De Atkine, Army
Alex Button, Navy 0
NIO/NESA~ 25X1
Approved For Release 2007/06/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300120029-4