LATIN AMERICA -- WARNING OF IMPENDING DEVELOPMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300130004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2007
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: December 8, 1978
• Content Type: MEMO

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NIO/W
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Officers
NFAC-5553-78
8 December 1978
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM
: Acting National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
VIA . National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Director, National Foreign Assessment Center
SUBJECT Latin America -- Warning of Impending Developments
1. Action Requested: None; for your information only.
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2. Background ' : New ingredients have been added to some of the
impending developments previously signaled. Argentina seems more
deeply committed to resorting to military force against Chile to
strengthen its territorial claim south of the Beagle Channel; the
Bolivian coup d'etat resulted in the installation of yet another \
fragile government which seems destined to be overturned soon; and the
anti-Somoza forces which are obtaining arms and other support from
Cuba as well as from Venezuela and Panama appear likely, if mediation
breaks down, to launch another assault against Somoza from Costa Rica.
3. Argentina continues to move military forces, equipment, and
naval units south with the apparent intent to seize a couple of
uninhabited islands south of the Beagle Channel (probably the Evout and
Barnevelt Islands), and possibly also some Chilean territory on the
mainland. Although Argentina and Chile have agreed to have their
Foreign Ministers meet on 12 December to identify a mutually acceptable
mediator for their dispute and to work out other related issues, it
seems unlikely that any substantive progress will be made. Argentina
will be prepared to make a military move any time after 15 December.
Should hostil] break out, Chile will almost certainly invoke the
Rio Treaty. u.es
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4. The overthrow of General Pereda as President of Bolivia by
General Padilla is typical of the coups d'etat which have beset Bolivia
for almost two hundred years. The forces for political stability do not
at present exist in Bolivia, and I anticipate that Padilla, in , may
be overthrown by a military conservative within a few months. 25X1
5. Despite vigorous mediation efforts in Nicaragua, political
eruption is just barely below the surface. Anti-Somoza forces are
receiving some military aid in the form of arms and advice from Cuba as
well as from Venezuela and Panama. In fact, Cuba reportedly is funneling
aid to the FSLN through Panama and the Communist Party of Honduras. This
is the first indication we have seen in years that Castro is providing
any significant assistance to revolutionaries in the Western Hemisphere.
He is not, however, committing Cuban nationals to the fray. Meanwhile,
several hundred Sandinista guerrillas are camped just inside the Costa
Rican border. If the mediation effort breaks down and Somoza declines
to resign, I anticipate the Sandinistas will attack. F
6. The above judgments are based upon consUltat ons with my
colleagues in INR/State, DIA, NSA, and Treasury.
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SUBJECT: Latin America -- Warning of Impending Developments
Distribution:.
I - Director of Central Intelligence
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- Deputy Director-of Central Intelligence
l.~..Director, National Foreign Assessment Center"
1_.-_National .Intelligence Officer for Warning
1 - Mr. Hunter L. Estep
INR/DDR/RAR, Dept. of State
1 - Mr. Louis E..Misback
INR/DDR/RAR/SA, Dept. of State
1 - Mr. T. Lee McCarriar
G-5, National Security Agency
1 - Mr. J. Foster Collins
Deputy for NFIB & Special Support, Treasury Dept.
1 - Mr.,Arthur. W. Long
Office of National Security, Treasury Dept.
1 - Lt. Col. Jack L. Throckmorton
DN 2D2, Defense Intelligence Agency
1 - Lt. Col.
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DIR 3B3, Defense intelligence Agency
1 - Dr. William Naughton
DIADE-4, Defense Intelligence Agency
_
1 - Mr. F
V
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DIADE-4, Defense Intelligence Agency
1 - Mr.
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AF/ N KB, Dept. of AF
1 - Mr. Robert Pastor
NSC Staff
1 - Lt. Col. Robert E. Blake.
DAMI-FII, Dept. of Army
1 - Lt. Col. Emmett W. Smith
OASD/ISA-IA, Dept. of Defense
1 - Lt. Col. Harold W. Mills
Director's Staff Group, Defense Intelligence Agency
1 - Mr. Andrew Cook
Estimates Branch, Office of Naval Intelligence
1 - Mr. Alfonso Sapia-Bosch
ORPA/LA, Central Intelligence Agency
1'- DDO Re resenta i CIA
1 - Mr.
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DOA ntelligence Agency
1 - Mr.
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OGC entra Intelligence Agency
1 - Mr.
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FBIS, Central n e igence Agency
CLT iu ~b it 6 s'la
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1 - Mr.1
OCRjWH, Central Intelligence Agency
1 - Mr.
OSR Intelligence Agency
Mr.
NFA
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, en ra Intelligence Agency
1 - Executive Registry
1 - NFAC Registry
2 - National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
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en ra Intelligence Agency