MEMORANDUM TO INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY PRINCIPALS ON PAO'S STUDY OF INDICATIONS AND WARNING CENTERS (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R000100050016-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: January 5, 1981
• Content Type: MF

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 SEC. PI_T
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5 January 1981
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
Deputy to the DCI for Resource Management
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SUBJECT:
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Acting Director, Program Assessment Office
Program Assessment Office
Memorandum to Intelligence Community Principals n
PAO's Study of Indications and Warning Centers II 25X1
1. Action Requested: That you the sign the attached
memorandum.
2. Background: In order to facilitate PAO's gathering of data
to support its I&W Centers study, a notification of intent should
be sent to the NFIP Program Managers involved.
3. Recommendation: That you sign the attached memorandum.
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Attachment:
As Stated
This document may be downgraded
to UNCLASSIFIED upon removal of
attachment.
WARNING NOTICE
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
AND METHODS C";VOLVED
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 SECRET
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SUBJECT: Memorandum to the Intelligence Community Principals on PAO's
Study of Indications and Warning Centers
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Distribution:
Copy #1-D/DCI RM
#2-AD/DCI/RM
#3-D/PBO
#4-D/IRO
#5-AD/PAO
#6-D/PGS
#7-D/CLLS
#8-PGS r
#18-PAO Subject
#19-PAO Chrono
#20-RM Registry
#9-IRO
#10-IRO
#11-PBO
#1 2-PBO
#13-PBO
#14-PBO
#15-PAO
#16-PAO
#17-PAO
25X1 DCI/RM/PAO -7 Jan 81)
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 SECRET
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Deputy to the Director of Central Intelligence
for Resource Management
Washington, D.C. 20505
7 January 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director, Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Director, National Security Agency.
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy to the DCI for Collection Tasking
SUBJECT: Study of NFIP Indications and Warning Centers
1. The Program Assessment Office is undertaking a study of the
.NFIP resources devoted to the Community's Indications and Warning
Centers. The study is presently envisioned to be a low-level effort
designed to serve as background for the FY 1983 program and budget
review. A study prospectus is attached.
2. The study director, would like to
have a point of contact on your staff so that he might request
briefings on the I&W centers funded within your program. He would be
happy to answer any questions your staff might have concerning it.
He can be reached on
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3. My thanks in advance for your cooperation on this matter.
0
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Attachment:
Study Prospectus
This document may be downgraded to
SECRET upon removal of attachment.
WARNING NOTICE
INTELLIGENCE SOURCES
AND METHODS INVOLVED
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
1 Unauthorized Disclosure SA toted 10 r Release 200 'EC lA-RDP8
f riminal Sanctions. 16 it.
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SUBJECT: Study of NFIP Indications and Warning Centers
Distribution:
Copy- #1-D/State/INR
#2-D/DIA
43-DIRNSA
#4-DDCI
115-D/DCI/CT
#6-NI0/Warning (Richard Lehman)
#7-D/NCPO/CTS
#18-NCPO/CTS
#9-D/DCI/RM
#10-AD/DCI/RM
#11-D/PBO
#12-D/IRO
#13-AD/PA0
#14-D/PGS
#15-D/CLLS
#16-PGS
#17-IRO
# 18- IRO
#19-PBO
#20-PBO
#21-PBO
#22-PBO
#23-PAO
#24-PAD
#25-PAO
#26-PAO Subject
#27-PAO Chrono
#28-Executive Registry
#29-RM Registry
#30-CT Registry
DCI/RM/PAO:
-7 Jan 81)
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Attachment
STUDY PROSPECTUS
INDICATIONS AND WARNING CENTERS IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY-
REASON FOR UNDERTAKING THE STUDY: A common argument supporting the
procurement of advanced co ection systems has been the expected
value of real-time information for indications and warning purposes.
The Community's planning for the use of this information will be
among the foci of the DCI's FY 1983 Program Review. As part of the
Resource Management Staff's preparation for the Spring Review, a
study that systematically examines the NFIP resources devoted to I&W
centers is needed. At present, it is difficult to identify all the
resources that directly and indirectly support the Community's I&W
centers. This study will establish a base from which resource and
programmatic guidance can be suggested.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:
0 To provide the DCI with a study that examines the Intelligence
Community's current resource planning for I&W centers.
Are the planned resources sufficient to enable the I&W
centers to handle the tremendous increase in real-time
information expected in the mid-1980's?
-- What kinds of supporting equipment are likely to be needed
over the next five years?
Is the Community's interagency I&W planning consistent with
the resource plans of individual agencies?
WORK BREAKDOWN:
? Phase I will consist of a cross-program survey of the Community
to identify:
those centers that will be the focus of this study;
-- the extent of NFIP funding for each; and
potential resource issues that might be raised during
Program Review.
This effort will begin with an examination of the information in
the FY 1982 program and budget submissions that contain funds
for I&W centers. Early informal discussions on the scope of the
study will be sought with the NIO for Warning and members of the
I&W Council.
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? Phase II will examine each center to determine its specific
unctions, the consumers it serves, the collection sources on
which it draws, and the technical support on which it relies.
Briefings will be requested of individual centers to obtain
responses ific questions that will be sent out in
advance.
? Phase III will consist of a cross-program analysis of the I&W
centers funded within the NFIP. It will provide a framework for
aiding the DCI in determining whether the programs proposed for
FY 1983-1987 will serve the Community's I&W mission in the most
effective and efficient manner possible.
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PAO Routing Slip
S
LOG NO: 3 1 DATE OF ITEM: 1_ r 7- V/ DATE RECEIVED:
Date In Date Out Initials COMMENTS:
D/PAO Comments:
EA/PAO Comments:
DISPOSITION:
ACTION:
COORDINATE WITH:
SUSPENSE DATE:
FILE:Ck N /is
DESTROY:
CLASSIFICATION:
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
NFAC #834-81
17 February 1981
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy to the DCI for Resource Management
FROM . National Intelligence Officer
for Warning
SUBJECT
Study
1. On 12 February, briefed the Warning Working
Group on his plans to con uct a study of the Washington area intel-
ligence centers' capabilities and plans to handle information from
new collection systems in the FY 83-85 time frame.
2. The concensus of the group is that he would be better
advised to review existing material on the subject, of which there
is a plethora. If he can digest that and come up with some reason-
ably coherent recommendations, he would be doing the community a
service.
3. We stand ready to provide him additional advice and guidance
once his review of existing studies is completed.
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All Portions of this Memorandum
are Classified SECRET
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SUBJECT: Prospectus Review, Summary No. 3
Provide each Program Monitor with a copy of his
prospectus;
0 Set up a meeting with the Program Monitors to
outline his approach to the study; and
Establish a vehicle for regularly interacting
with the Program Monitors.
f. After talking to I Iwill decide
when to meet with to discuss the prospectus and get
his thoughts on what he expects out of this effort.
3. I&W Centers:
a. I opened the meeting by reviewing what the
FY 1983-1987 Program Guidance will say about I&W.0 asked
to contact PGS to try and clearly delineate
between what will be proposed in the guidance and what PAO
intends to do in this area. 0 asked 0 to find out who
wrote the CT reaction to the program guidance. Suspicion is
that probably wrote it.
b. Everyone agreed that it will be important for the
NIO (W) to understand what PAO is proposing to study. I so
said that he will want I to send a letter o the
Program Managers to get the study off the ground.
uncertainty over whether PAO will have enough resources to
proceed on to Phase II of this effort.
to indicate in the revised prospectus that there is some
"filler" relative to the "imagery mix studies."
c. There was some discussion of whether 0 has enough
resources to accomplish the "imagery mix studies" and the I&W
study.~xplained that he considers the I&W study to be a
d. Revised prospectus should cover the following points:
(l.) Identify any intermediate products that will be
provided.
(2) Identify the potential FY 1983 program/budget
issues which IRO and PBO will want the paper to address.
e. Pending actions are as follows:
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SUBJECT: Prospectus Review, Summary No. 3
(1) Contact I to determine
what, if anything, their respective organizations will be
doing in this area.
(2) Initiate Phase I activities as soon as practical.
(3) Develop a briefing which can be used to explain
what the PAO study will be designed to do.
(4) Develop a revised prospectus by Monday, 5 January
f. I
attended this review.
4. All portions of this memorandurn are UNCLASSIFIED.
cc: AD/PAO
I al so
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STUDY PROSPECTUS/DRAFT - 7 November 1980
TOPIC: Indications and Warning Centers in the Intelligence
Community.
REASON: A common argument supporting the procurement of advanced
collection systems has been the expected value of real-time
information for indications and warning purposes. The tremendous
increase in the volume of this information, coupled with its rapid
dissemination in a raw and unanalyzed form, has effectively expanded
the number of organizations capable of serving as Intelligence
Community I&W centers. This study will examine the functions and
resources devoted to those components of Community organizations
that, regardless of official designation, fulfill the following three
criteria:
? Perform initial analysis of raw intelligence;
? Issue alerts on the basis of such analysis; and
? Receive their funding from the National Foreign Intelligence
Program.
This study is designed to serve as background for the FY 1983 Progi'am
Review. If appropriate, a cross-program (CCP/GDIP/CIAP) issue will
be raised.
OBJECTIVES:
? To provide the D CI with a comprehensive study that examines the
NFIP resources devoted to indications and warning centers.
? To trace the flow of intelligence collected for I&W purposes
through the indications and warning centers to the ultimate
consumers, while attempting to give an indication of elapsed
time:
What specific functions does each center fulfill?
On which collection sources does each center rely most
heavily?
To what extent do these centers communicate with one
another?
? To examine the role of these centers under varying conditions of
stress.
How well do these centers serve their designated consumers
under normal circumstances?
How well do these centers respond in crisis? Are they
prepared to respond equally well to crises in all parts of
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? To raise resource issues (if appropriate to the FY 1983 Program
Review).
Has the increase in Community I&W centers resulted in
unnecessary duplication?
Might the functions performed by these centers be
consolidated?
APPROACH:
Background Studies: I _j study on the M IC ; I&W
and Conti Contingency Support studies; C IR IS data; DIA WIC and
studies; other Community I&W studies.
Work Breakdown:
? Phase I will consist of a cross-program survey of the Community
to identify:
-- those centers that meet the three criteria sketched under
"REASON" above;
the extent of NFIP funding for each; and
-- potential resource issues that might be raised during
Program Review.
? Phase II will examine each center to determine their specific
functions, the consumers they serve, the collection sources on
which they draw, and the technical support on which they rely.
? Phase III will be a cross-program analysis of the I&W centers
funded within the NFIP. It will provide a framework for aiding
the DCI in determining whether the programs proposed for FY
1983-1987 will serve the Canmunity's I&W mission in the most
effective and efficient manner possible.
METHODOLOGY: The effort will begin with an examination of the
information in program and budget submissions as containing funds for
I&W centers. Briefings will be requested of individual centers to
obtain specific responses to the questions outlined under Phase II
above.
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SCHEDULE:
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Phase I X X X
Phase II X X X X
Phase III X X X X
(NOTE: During June 1981, the program submissions will be examined
and, if appropriate, a cross-program issue will be drafted.)
STAFFING:
Project Leader:l
Anal vsts:
time); two others (2/5 time)
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TOPIC: Indications and Warning Centers in the Intelligence
Community.
REASON: Study is designed to serve as background for the FY 1983
Program Review.
OBJECTIVES: To provide the DCI with a comprehensive study that
examines the Intelligence Community's network of Indications and
Warning Centers.
? How are NFIP resources distributed among the Community's 27
Indications and Warning centers?
? What specific functions does each center fulfill?
? On which sources does each center rely most heavily?
? To what extent do these centers communicate with one another?
? How well do these centers serve their designated consumers?
? How well do these centers respond in crisis? Are they prepared
to respond equally well to crises in all parts of the world?
APPROACH:
Background Studies: I study on I&W and NMIC;
Contingency Support study; CIRIS data; other Community I&W studies.
Work Breakdown:
? Phase I will consist of a cross-program survey of the Community
to determine the extent of NFIP funding for IN centers. The
specific decision units containing funds for these centers will
be examined for potential resource issues that might be raised
during Program Review.
? Phase II will examine each center to determine their specific
functions, the consumers they serve, the collection sources on
which they draw, and the technical support on which they rely.
? Phase III will be a cross-program analysis of the I&W centers
funded within the NFIP. It will provide a framework for aiding
the DCI in determining whether the programs proposed for FY
1983-1987 will serve the Community's I&W mission in the most
effective and efficient manner possible.
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METHODOLOGY: The effort will begin with an examination of the
information in program and budget submissions as containing funds for
I&W centers. Briefings will be requested of individual centers to
obtain specific responses to the questions outlined under Phase II
above.
SCHEDULE:
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May
Phase I X X X
Phase II X X X X
Phase III X X X X
(NOTE: During June 1981, the program submissions will be examined
and, if appropriate, a cross-program issue will be drafted.)
STAFFING:
Project Leader*
Analysts: 1(2/5 time); two others (2/5 time)
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