ASAT ARMS CONTROL PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R000200020003-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 2006
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: October 27, 1978
• Content Type: MF

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p JPW
The Director of Central Intelligence.
Washington. Q C.20505
27 October 1978
IC 78-54
MEMORANDUM FOR: Admiral Daniel J. Murphy, USN (Ret.)
Deputy Under Secretary for Policy
Department of Defense
SUBJECT: ASAT Arms Control Paper
REFERENCE: Memorandum
for Polcy, Same to DCI from Deputy Under Secretary
1. You rnmmpnts the subject paper have been re d and
forwarded to for use in updating the paperd advises
me that the n e igenc 3-iommunity ASAT Monitoring Working Group is
developing a near-term update to the paper that should be available
later this month. This update will, to the extent possible at this
time, respond to your comments as well as those of the other members
of the Interagency ASAT Treaty Working Group.
2. We have also initiated a longer term study of our capabiliTy
to monitor ASAT treaty provisions. This study is scheduled for completion
during the first half of CY 79.
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e erector of cen r$i fn ,liggence
Washington. D. C 20505
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Under Secretary for Policy
ASAT Arms Control Paper
REFERENCE: Memorandum to DCI from Deputy Under S ,grCretary for
Policy, Same Subject, 20 September 78
1. Yo comments n the subject paper
forwarded tol for use in updati
me that the Intelligence ommunity ASAT
developing a near-term update to the pa
later this month. This update will,
time, respond to your comments as we,
the Interagency ASAT Treaty Workin
ve been received and
ng the paper. dvises
itoring 1Jor.kin is
r that should be available
the extent possible at this
as those of the other members of
Group.
2. We have also initiate a longer term study of our capability
to monitor ASAT treaty provisi ns. This study is scheduled for completion
during the first half of CY 7
STANSFIELD TURNER
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Di stri bution
Addressee
DCI
DDCI
D/DCI/RM
D/PAO
PAO Chrono
SAND Chrono
Executive Registry
RMS Registry
DCI/RM/PAOI
120 October 1 1g78
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24 OCT 1978
IC 78-5457
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM:
Deputy to the I for Resource Management
SUBJECT: ASAT Arms Control Paper
REFERENCES: A. Summary of Conclusions of 15-February SCC Meeting
on the ASAT Treaty, 7 March 1978
B. Monitoring a Comprehensive ASAT Arm Control Agreement;
New Systems Improvement of Monitoring,
26 May 1978, 25X1
C. Memorandum to DCI from Deputy Under Secretary for
Policy, ASAT Arms Control Paper, 26 September 1978
1. Action Requested: That you sign the attached memo to the
Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.
2. Background:
a. On 26 May, we responded to the Special Coordinating
Committee's 15 February tasking (Reference A) by distributing
Reference B. We cautioned that, "Because of the time restrictions,
the judgments reached must be considered as preliminary." The
report was prepared by an ad hoc working group chaired by the IC
Staff and consisting of representatives of CIA/NFAC, DIA, State/:INR,
NSA, and the intelligence components of Army, Navy, and Air Force.
Reference B extended and supplemented an earlier report on monitoring
an ASAT agreement and was needed to provide background for developing
the U.S. position on terms of an ASAT treaty.
b. On 1 June 1978, the SCC met to consider the ASAT issue
with yourself and Sayre'Stevens in attendance. As I understand it,
there was a lively discussion of the near-term strategy for the 25X1
initial meeting with the Soviets but the.monitoring issue, an
important factor in our longer-term strategy, was not really discussed.
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SUBJECT: ASAT Arms Control Paper
c. The initial meeting with the Soviets was held in Helsinki
in June. The Soviets appeared to be receptive toward a "hostile
acts" agreement--i.e., some type of a mutual agreement on non-
interference--but were not prepared to discuss anything like a
comprehensive ban or a ban on testing in space.
3. Discussion:
a. We are now preparing for a second round of talks tentatively
scheduled for early December and an SCC meeting on this subject has
been tentatively scheduled for 3 November. In preparing for the
SCC meeting, the members of the Interagency ASAT Working Group were
asked to provide comments on Reference B. These comments, including
a draft copy of Admiral Murphy's comments, (Reference C) have been
available to us for some time. The Intelligence Community ad hoc
working group has met and developed responses to most of the
comments; however, some of the questions require new research and
cannot be answered at this time. The working group is now preparing
an updated version of the May report with a coordination draft
scheduled for distribution on 27 October.
b. The Intelligence Community ad hoc working group, under
NFAC leadership, has also initiated a long-term, in-depth study of
ASAT monitoring. This study is scheduled for completion during the
first half of CY 1979.
c. Admiral Murphy's major point is that the May report
"focuses only upon the technical aspects of monitoring and the
mechanics of collection. It is important that we go further, and
cast the monitoring situation in the context of how our limitations
would actually affect U.S. security in the event of a Soviet viola-
tion. ..Monitoring judgments should then be made in the context
of the timeliness needed for the Soviets to gain a viable operational
military capability,..." I agree that "the report does not substantiate
that warning can be achieved sufficiently early in a breakout cycle
to permit a meaningful U.S. response." However, we will be unable
to respond directly to this point in the next version of the report
'for the following reasons:
--A full evaluation of how our monitoring limitations
would actually affect U.S. security is an inappropriate subject
for the Intelligence Community to address by itself.
--The subject of achievable warning in a breakout cycle
was treated in a preliminary fashion in the first ASAT Monitoring
paper (fall 1977). The working group feels that this topic
should be referred to the longer-term study effort for an in-
depth treatment.
SECREY
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SUBJECT: ASAT Arms Control Paper
81400171 R000200020003-1
d. In presenting the updated version of the May report to
the SCC, it will be important for you to point out the limitation
relative to the treatment of warning time and explain that it is
now the subject of in-depth study. The report will also be modified
to highlight this particular limitation in scope.
3. Recommendation: That you sign the attached memorandum to
Admiral Murphy.
Attachment:
Memo to Deputy Under Secretary
for Policy
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25X1
Distribution
Original - Addressee
1 - D/DCI/RM
1 - D/PAO
1 - PAO Chrono
1 - SAND Chrono
1 - RMS Registry
1 - Executive Registry
1-
1 -
1 -
25X1
DCI/RM/PAO 20 October 1978
r j
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