SPACE POLICY ALTERNATIVES PAPER FOR SPACE POLICY REVIEW COMMITTEE

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SPACE POLICY ALTERNATIVES PAPER
FOR
SPACE POLICY REVIEW COMMITTEE
NASA Review Completed.
NRO review(s) completed.
August 21, 1978
InO Q[PDfT
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Table of Contents
Page
Introduction ............................................
1.
Scope of U.S. Activities ................................
Technology Sharing Among Sectors ........................
Strategy to Utilize the Shuttle .........................
Satellite Reconnaissance Security Policy Alternatives....
Government Role in Remote Sensing .......................
Space Science and Planetary Exploration .................
Communications Satellites ...............................
Long-term Economic Activity in Space ....................
CONFIDENTIAL
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CIVIL SPACE POLICY
I. INTRODUCTION
The United States is now completing 20 years of organized civil space activity.
We have spent about $100 billion on our diverse space activities, of which some
$ has been for civil programs. Our national space programs
have been important elements of US power and prestige. They have contributed
significantly to national security and foreign policy objectives and have
resulted in important security and foreign policy benefits.
In May, NSC/PD-37--A Coherent US Space Policy--set forth this nation's principles
for space activities. It established policy on the interrelationship between
the civilian, military, and intelligence sectors. That policy statement,
however, did not attempt to articulate US civil space policy goals in detail.
To provide a framework for decisions on such goals, this paper describes the
scope of our various civil space activities and sets forth several issues for
decision. Before discussing policies and issues primarily focused on the
civilian space program, the first ? on of the paper discusses technology
sharing among the three sectors of the national space program, the strategy
to utilize the Space Shuttle, and the issues (and impacts) of a proposal to
declassify the "fact of" the existence of the intelligence program. The
civilian space policy issues discussed are (a) the government's role in remote
sensing, (b) space sciences and planetary exploration, (c) the government's
role in communications R&D and public services satellites, (d) longer-term
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economic activity in space, and (e) public statement articulating civil space
policy and goals.
The major directions of the US space program have been determined by Presiden-
tial decision and by legislation. President: Eisenhower initiated US space
exploration programs. The Congress approved the Space Act in 1958. President
Kennedy set the national goal of placing a man on the moon in the 1960's. The
future space transportation system--the Space Shuttle--was an initiative of
President Nixon.
The US civilian space program is acquiring new capabilities, but it needs
direction and purpose. Decisions made now will set the goals and dimensions of
our civilian space program for the next decades. National space objectives in
the civilian sector, beyond deployment of the Shuttle, have not been addressed
at the Presidential level. This Administration has an opportunity to put a
distinctive stamp on the US space program. There are compelling reasons to
believe that today is the time to address this vacuum. First, if this
Administration does not fill this vacuum, others will try to do so, and policy
might well be made by reaction and default. Some have chided the Administration
for going too slowly in setting new goals ic. space and making imaginative
proposals for future space projects. Some have threatened to introduce their
own civil space policies. Congressional frustration with the Administration's
low profile on space could lead to premature legislated programs; e.g., for
satellite power stations. Thus, the time to set policy for the 1980's is now,
because of the long lead times associated with major efforts in space. A
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national space policy must effectively link our near- and long-term objectives.
Moreover, space objectives can be accomplished at various budgetary levels. As
the extent and complexity of space exploration and utilization rises, the costs
associated increase. The foreseeable national economy and existing national
priorities clearly dictate that we make choices concerning our activities in
space. With the projected run out in major Shuttle expentitures, the oppor-
tunity exists to set directions in space. Options become available, for example,
to give new impetus to space applications or to continue our programs at
present levels or to contract them. Howeve:r, since it is not feasible within
any projected budget envelope to commit the US now to a high-challenge, highly-
visible space initiative comparable to Apollo, steps taken must be evolutionary
and controlled. All this comes in a period when the growth of overall expendi-
tures must be reduced.
In addition, opportunities exist for Presidential management direction that
could maximize US benefits from space for the resources expended. The effi-
ciency of US efforts in space could be increased through improved coordination,
joint planning, and technology transfer among the civil, military, and intelli-
gence sectors, and possibly through more joint projects. In the near term,
savings would be modest, but they would hold the potential for larger savings
in the future.
The third decade in space will bring increasing worldwide involvement and
competition--both between governments and in the business sector. The European
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Space Agency's Ariane launch vehicle will be available in 1979. The Japanese
have announced an encompassing 15-year space program. Together, the Europeans
and Japanese will provide the major competition to the US for the commercial
space market and in the economic applications of space technology.
At the same time, the USSR remains the primary US space competitor in national
security systems, in space exploration, and increasingly in areas of potential
economic value--such as remote sensing. The Soviets place considerable emphasis
in space for national prestige building. As such, the Soviets sustain a highly-
visible space program--integrated with their military program--and now launch
some 115 satellites per year. Technologically, US satellites are more sophisti-
cated--e.g., longer lifetime in orbit--than Soviet systems, and the US therefore
needs to launch fewer satellites per year (33 in 1977). The Soviets, moreover,
sustain a highly-visible manned program. In this year alone, they have launched
four manned flights, broken a US manned endurance record, resupplied a Salyut
space station, and brought to fruition a cooperative program--flying Polish and
Czech cosmonauts. We believe the Soviets will strive toward equivalence with
the US in space prowess, or at least the public image thereof.
A resurgence of domestic interest in space exploration and utilization has been
evidenced by press and popular attention to the Space Shuttle and proposals for
future space projects. Continuing Congressional interest is reflected in
budgetary support for NASA. On the other hand, Federal expenditures in the
social and defense areas also have strong advocates.
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This Administration stands at an important decision point in the US use of
space and the development of US space capabilities. In the broadest terms, it
must answer the question: To what degree should the US expand, reorient, con-
tract, or maintain its present use and exploration of space? These consider-
ations or questions must be addressed from the policy perspective, but also in
a way that clearly distinguishes between the overall national needs in space
and our goals and the specific program decisions that must be made in the context
and the evolving space technology and also the budget.
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II. SCOPE OF US ACTIVITIES
BACKGROUND. Space exploration, earth applications, and associated civil
international programs are pursued by NASA, Commerce (NOAA), and the private
sector in support of other departments and agencies. The national space
program for intelligence is pursued by the National Reconnaissance Office
(NRO). The military program is pursued by Defense. PD-37 dictates that each
program will continue to be run by separate! mechanisms. Figure 1 shows our
overall space expenditures over the past 10 years
Each program generally serves basically
different constituencies and requirements, but as noted below, there is some
redundance.
The Federal civil program is basically open and unclassified; develops
space systems; acquires global planetary and scientific data and monitors
weather, earth resources, and natural pehnomena; and develops applications
to satisfy the needs of a wide variety of consumers at home and abroad.
-- The intelligence space program is highly classified (even the fact of its
existence is currently classified) and is a principal source of infor-
mation to support national intelligence estimates, the verification of
arms control agreements, intelligence for crisis management, and tactical
military needs in peace and war.
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The military space program provides early warning of an attack, communi- 25X1
cations, navigation, weather forecasting, and aids in verification of
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arms control agreements. Space systems provide essential elements of
our warfighting capability, and our dependence on them is growing.
-- The private sector maintains a $ million investment in commercial
space programs, which have significantly improved domestic and inter-
national communications.
Table T shows the US government expenditures for FY 1979 on the different
space programs. It also provides a rough approximation of expenditures in the
mission areas within the various sectors. The major Federal and private sector
projects in all four segments of the US space activities are highlighted in
Table Ii, along with the national needs which they meet. On the left side of
Table II are the Federal civil and private sector projects. On the right are
the military and intelligence projects. A brief description of these major
projects follows under the various sector headings.
NASA PROGRAM. NASA has organized its technical R&D and support activities
into the following areas: space sciences, applications, space flight, and
tracking and data acquisition. The space science activities are discussed at
length under Section VII.
The primary goal in the applications area :Ls to develop and demonstrate
applications of space-related technology and to encourage their effective use
by government agencies and commercial organizations to provide practical 25X1
benefits. Significant activities are underway in the earth observation area.
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LANDSAT-C, the third multispectral earth resources satellite, is providing
repetitive global coverage at some 40 meters resolution. In addition, SEASAT-A
is the first ocean monitoring satellite having the extensive capability to
better forecase the ocean environment, monitor the marine environment for
economic purposes (i.e., fisheries), and collect data for physical oceanography
research.
Space flight activities in NASA provide all the transportation and associated
support required to conduct space operations. The current focus is on the
Space Shuttle, the first reusable launch vehicle. The Shuttle is the key
element of a versatile, economical Space Transportation System (STS) that will
provide launch capability for all US satellites and for international users.
The Shuttle is now in a final phase of development, leading to its first
manned orbital flight in 1979 and to its initial operational capability in
1980. The strategies that. various sectors plan to use to transition to the
Shuttle and other Shuttle-related issues are discussed in Section IV. The
other major component of the STS includes:
Spacelab, a multipurpose laboratory which will be carried in the large
cargo bay of the Space Shuttle. It is being designed and built by the
European Space Agency.
-- The Inertial Upper Stage (IUS), which is being developed by the Air Force
to deploy Shuttle-launched payloads to higher-altitude earth and earth
escape orbits by mid-1980.
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-- The Spinning Solid Upper Stages (SSUS), which are being developed to
provide a capability for launching small payloads to geosynchronous
orbits by mid-1980.
Tracking and data acquisition are necessary functions for the return of data
to earth from space for analysis and exploitation. These activities include
tracking space vehicles for position and trajectory, receiving and relaying
telemetry, and commands between ground and the spacecraft. These services are
provided by the facilities of NASA's worldwide network of ground stations. In
the future two specialized Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS) in
geosynchronous orbit will provide near-continuous two-way communication with
most low-earth orbiting spacecraft, including the Shuttle, and will lead to
the elimination of a number of ground stations in the present network.
NOAA PROGRAM. Operational environmental and weather satellite services are
perated by NOAA. The program includes a series of polar orbiting satellites
which monitor the atmosphere and sun regularly with direct readout to ground
stations in over seventy nations. The new generation of polar orbiting satel-
lites, TIROS N, will go into service later this year. Two geostationary
satellites are located such that they provide images every 30 minutes of the
weather patterns over the Western Hemisphere. These satellites produce the
images regularly shown on public television and are particularly important to
tracking hurricanes and severe storms.
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NOAA and NASA work as partners in developing and launching these environmental
satellites. NOAA and Defense work together in developing and operating polar
orbiting satellite systems for weather monitoring. Data is exchanged, and
both NOAA and Defense depend on the other for back-up in the event of system
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MILITARY PROGRAM. The military program includes specific mission projects,
launch vehicle development, detection and tracking, in addition to supporting
R&D. The mission projects--navigation, communications, geodesy, warning,
weather, and ocean surveillance--are summarized in Table II. Some significant
projects include: the NAVSTAR Global Positioning System which is a planned
space-based radio-navigation and time distribution system; the Defense Satel-
lite Communications System which provides communications support through
geostationary satellites to US users; the Air Force and Navy communications
satellites; and transponders which are to be placed on a number of satellite
types and are designed to provide critical 24-hour two-way real-time highest
priority command and control communications for military forces and other
designated high-priority intelligence users.
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In addition, the Air Force Defense Support Program satellite system provides
missile launch detection. The primary weather information program for Defense
is provided by the Air Force under the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program.
Finally, the Navy has a planned program for
surveillance and targeting and a data relay system to transmit ASW data.
The Air Force is the. Defense executive agent for the Space Transportation
System (STS) and will develop and operate the Vandenberg launch site.
A launch vehicle program is also maintained by the Air Force to provide for
maintenance of a national launch vehicle family consisting of Atlas and
Titan III space boosters. The extent of this backup and timing of transition
to full dependence on the Shuttle is an issue discussed in more detail in
Section III.
Defense maintains a satellite tracking and data acquisition system, the Air
Force Satellite Control Facility. As mentioned earlier, this Control Facility
is shared with the intelligence programs. In addition, Defense maintains a
network for tracking foreign spacecraft which is operated by NORAD and called
the Space Detection and Tracking System (SPADATS). The Air Force element of
SPADATS is called SPACETRACK, which consists of sensors 25X1
deployed at locations throughout the world..
PRIVATE SECTOR. Private sector activities have thus far been limited to the
area of communications. Privately-owned communications satellites began with
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the Communications Satellite Act of 1962 that established the Communications
Satellite Corporation (COMSAT) as the "carriers' carrier" for satellite
telecommunications. With COMSAT as a key component, the International Tele-
communications Satellite Consortium (INTELSAT)--originally established with
14 member nations in 1974 and now incorporating 101 members--provides global
communications satellite services to more than 120 nations. The US is currently
a leader in both satellite and ground components of telecommunications systems,
but Europeans and Japanese are working toward self-sufficiency in this area.
The Federal Communications Commission's 1972 policy led private common carriers
to apply satellite technology to a wide variety of new, private line services
to compete domestically. Western Union launched the first domestic system in
1974 (WESTAR). RCA and AT&T were close behind with SATCOM in 1975 and COMSTAR
in 1976. Presently, the private sector has invested $ million in communi-
cations satellite systems.
Commercial ground systems for satellite communications in the US are exten-
sive. There are now hundreds of satellite. earth terminals to serve public and
commercial television and radio. The Federal role in satellite communications
research and development has steadily declined. Although four NASA satellites
continue to be used for experimental purposes, several are reaching the end of
their operational lives. At present, there are no plans to replace them.
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III. TECHNOLOGY SHARING AMONG SECTORS
BACKGROUND. Different needs are met by the civil sector (NASA, NOAA, and the
private sector) and the military and intelligence sectors. The programs do
interact, however. Civil remote sensing provides data used by the military-
intelligence sectors; e.g., LANDSAT is used in estimating Soviet grain produc-
tion. Some intelligence imagery over the United States (and in some restricted
cases over foreign areas) is authorized for use by those Federal civil agencies
for military purposes. The private sector;, state and local government organi-
zations, and the broad scientific community have no access to these images.
As the use of this imagery has grown within the Federal civil agencies, they
have pressed for relaxation of security controls. Recognizing this fact,
PD-37 encouraged the use of classified products by Federal government agencies.
Technology flow from the military and intelligence sectors to the civil sector
is important, but it is difficult to accomplish. The sectors have acted
independently because of a Presidential decision in the late 1950's to separate
the sectors--a decision that was reaffirmed in NSC/PD-37. As a result, the
sectors find it difficult to overcome a wide range of constraints to problems
of transfer and cross use. The major problems are:
The conflicts inherent between the national security requirements for
secrecy and the characteristics of civil programs; ethos of free exchange
of ideas and data.
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-- The fact that while civil programs are scrutinized in detail for poten-
tial military or intelligence use, the reverse has not been true in that
the civil sector seldom has an opportunity to impact the planning for
classified projects.
The institutional biases toward developing unique solutions to specific
mission problems which frequently develop technology that is so complex
and expensive that benefits deriving from secondary use of the capabilities
are not worth the cost. Another facet: of this problem is that the secondary
user cannot always depend on the availability of data from a system
because of the priority demands of the primary user.
Of these three, the first is the easiest to recognize and deal with. Tech-
nological security, designed to provide time protection for a capability,
could be preserved by the civil sector as easily and as well as by the military.
There are questions of image--if civil elements must deal regularly with
classified matters--but these can be accom?odated if the returns are warranted.
Data security, on the other hand, raises the philosophical issue, in the
limit, of classifiying basic knowledge. These can only be handled on a case-
by-case basis; i.e., assessing the losses and gains of open dissemination
versus classification constraints. No overriding policy can be formulated as
a guideline since today's scientific curiosity is so often tomorrow's critical
technology.
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The second major problem can be addressed in part by the Federal civil agen-
cies having more knowledge of the classsified programs, but this solution
does not assist civil private sector users.
The third major problem,. that of'institutional biases, is inherent in the
level of resources available to the variow3 communities. In many cases, the
civil sector does not need the sophisticated technology of the intelligence
community. Since the civil sector is diffuse (involving many Federal agencies,
local governments, and various elements of the private sector) it is unlikely
that any one (or even a few) of these organizations can afford the special
equipment needed. Even if they could afford the expenditures, this would lead
to serious duplication of effort.
Discussed later in this section are examples of notable transfers of tech-
nology between. the various sectors. There are intersector mechanisms working
on this problem,. and some of the transfers have been brought about through the
budget process. An improved flow of technology between sectors, however, is
needed.
Examples of Intersector Relationships
Data Sharing. In 1973, the CIA began to use LANDSAT data operationally in its
assessments of Soviet grain production;
NASA moved a transportable ground receiving station to Pakistan
in order to assure coverage of critical crop areas. The joint Agriculture-
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NOAA-NASA experiments in global crop forecasting--based on civil remote
sensing--have been developed with CIA technical assistance and have contributed
to CIA technical expertise. Nonetheless, there has been a continuing debate
in the Executive Branch over the relative value and costs of LANDSAT multi-
spectral data in relation to intelligence-type photo imagery. Classification
is one major reason why it has not yet proven possible to develop a single
earth imaging program that either integrates the use of multiple systems or
combines systems into an optimal mix for several users. Other reasons include
the information content in the multispectra:L data versus that in the photographic
images, computer processing of digital data versus photo interpretation, and
unrestricted. access to data by other nations and the private sector.
While there are numerous examples of data sharing in earth-imaging, spacecraft
design, and communications equipment, such sharing among sectors usually
occurs only when satisfaction of the requirements. of an individual sector
cannot be met within that sector.
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Space Cameras. There has been significant technology transfer in space
cameras between sectors. NASA's 1966 Lunar Orbiter program used a camera
system originally developed in the SAMOS program. The Apollo 24-inch optical
bar lunar mapping camera was a derivative of the intelligence community's
obsolete photo reconnaissance system. The Skylab 18-inch earth resources
camera was originally an Air Force aircraf'_ reconnaissance system.
NAVSTAR Global Positioning System. For several years the White House Office
of Telecommunications Policy (OTP) (now NTIA in Commerce), the General Accounting
Office (GAO), and Congress have expressed concern over the growing proliferation
of government-sponsored radio-navigation systems, with attendant costs to both
government and users. The proliferation has generally been attributed to two
primary reasons--first a reluctance to phase out older systems as new ones
come into service and second, a lack of coordinated planning within the
government.
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A number of existing or planned radio-navigation systems could be replaced by
the proposed military NAVSTAR Global Positioning System, which could serve
both military and civil needs. Key issues are the need to protect the use of
high-precision position and velocity data of military value for US forces and
preventing its exploitation by potential adversaries, on the one hand, and, on
the other hand, the rate of adoption of this new technology with its receiving
systems into the highly-diversified civil sector--airlines, general aviation,
and maritime and recreational boating. A consolidation of radio-navigation
systems using the NAVSTAR GPS has been proposed. 0MB has been serving as the
focal point in the Administration's review of this proposal. An interagency
group is examining the totality of Federal government involvement in radio-
navigation systems, with particular emphasis on applicability of GPS to civil
use. A Decision Memorandum on this issue will be submitted separately.
Proposed National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS) Operational Demonstration.
NOAA, NASA, and Defense are considering a joint effort to build upon the
experiences gained on NASA's Seasat A and NIMBUS G experimental satellites.
Seasat A and NIMBUS G are demonstrating the contributions that satellites can
make to meeting the national and international needs for oceanic data. NASA,
NOAA, and Defense now are considering the next step: the first full-scale
operational demonstration spacecraft designed to meet the needs of both the
military and civilian communities.
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This approach to technology sharing should result in economic benefits. Under
the proposed multi-agency effort, NASA would be responsible for the design and
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delivery into orbit of two Shuttle-retrievable satellites. Defense and NOAA
would be responsible for the design and operation of the satellite command and
control system and of the joint data analysis of distribution systems. This
multi-sector development concept--if approved-will have to take special
precautions to protect certain national security aspects of an essentially
open system and represents a considerable change in the character of civil
space activities.
MECHANISMS FOR COORDINATION. There are existing mechanisms to manage inter-
sector coordination, controls, transfers, and functional assignment between
the four Federal space programs. Nonetheless, none of these review elements
has performed a comprehensive cross-cut on a continuing basis.
The most important intersector mechanism is the Program Review Board (PRB),
established in 1975 as the successor to an earlier interagency group initiated
in 1966. The Board principals are the Under Secretary of Defense for Research
and Engineering, the Director of the National Reconnaissance Office, the
Deputy Administrator of NASA, the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence for
Science and Technology, and--when matters involving meteorology are discussed--
the Associate Administrator of NOAA. The Board's responsibility is to identify
and solve intersector problems--especially in the highly classified and
sensitive areas--and to refer irreconcilable issues to the Space Policy Review
Committee or Presidential level for resolution.
Other interagency mechanisms include:
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-- The Space Transportation System Commmittee, cochaired by the Air Force
and NASA, under which the Space Shuttle has been developed to satisfy
both civil and military space launch requirements.
The Defense/NASA Aeronautics and Astronautics Coordinating Board (AACB),
dealing with, among other things, manned space flight, launch vehicles,
and unmanned spacecraft.
The Polar Orbiting Operational Meteorological Satellite Coordinating
Board that has Defense, NASA, and NOAH representation and reviews orbiting
meteorological satellite programs.
The Space Research and Technology Review Group which jointly reviews and
redirects space programs in both NASA and Defense (Air Force).
IMPROVEMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY FLOW. In addition to formal mechanisms for coordi-
nation and review, there are other forces that act to foster intersector
transfers. An important element of the latter is the US industry which works
for all the sectors and is always anxious to move its products and capabili-
ties across sectoral boundaries. Another factor is the chronic shortage of
resources, which effectively dampens institutional independence and fosters
cross servicing.
The Executive Office and Congress perform some cross-cut of programs, tech-
nologies, and resources on programs that have reasonable visibility. Some of 25X1
the examples cited above, in fact, were pxecipitatpd by these elements.
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As space technology continues to evolve, technical civil/military/intelligence
some systems requirements will continue to converge. Moreover, some of the
earliest developments exploiting the Shuttle capabilities (e.g., assemblage of
larger structures) might fulfill military needs long before there are compar-
able civil needs. Distinctions between programs will become less and less
clearcut. In addition to the technical benefits that would accrue from an
improved exchange program between sectors, the potential exists for a long-
term savings in cost. A very expensive portion of any space program occurs in
the R&D phase, which makes this phase such an attractive target for minimizing
duplication.
Recommended Action
The existing Program Review Board (PRB) will identify steps that can be taken
to further reduce barriers between the sectors and submit an implementation
plan to the Space Policy Review Committee (SPRC) by November 1, 1978. In
addition, the PRB will submit subsequent progress reports at 6-month intervals
to the SPRC. The objective would be to maximize efficient utilization of the
sectors and demonstrate lesser concern over maintaining the distinction between
the sectors while maintaining necessary security as directed in PD-37.
Included in this implementation plan will be ways to establish a common tech-
nology and accounting format to be used by all space sectors. Consideration
should also be given to establishing technology transfer groups under each
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The PRB will identify functional areas, while maintaining necessary security,
where overall national needs could be better met by reassigning functional
space responsibilities in the semi-annual report to the SPRC.
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IV. STRATEGY TO UTILIZE THE SPACE SHUTTLE
BACKGROUND. The Space Transportation System (STS) soon will allow the United
States to enter a new era in the use of space. Instead of depending on expend-
able, one-shot launch vehicles, we will have a reusable system with a piloted
orbiter and a wide range of capabilities. The Shuttle will provide new oppor-
tunities for on-orbit checkout, maintenance, and repair; for spacecraft retrieval
and return to earth; for routine manned operations in space; and for the
assembly of larger structures in orbit.
The STS will serve as a national system, carrying out civil, military, and
national intelligence missions. This raises new technical security problems
concerning the protection of classified activities and information which
require imaginative management and organizational solutions.
As the US enters this new era of space transportation, it is important that it
have a sound strategy for the best use of the Shuttle. The goal of that
strategy must be to make the most cost-effective use of the STS for civil,
military, and national intelligence purposes, improving the ability of each
sector to carry out its missions while protecting the legitimate concerns of
all sectors. Much of this strategy has been worked out, and management
mechanisms and policies have been developed. However, there are some concerns
which lie ahead:
The transition rate from expendable launch vehicles to the Shuttle.
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-- The evolution of Shuttle management responsibilities; i.e., whether we
should have separate civil and classified mission control facilities.
-- Whether additional capabilities for s-pace transportation are needed.
-- The survivability of the Space Shuttle against attack.
Space Shuttle. The final Space Shuttle performance requirements are to
deliver--into a 150 nautical mile circular orbit--65,000 pounds due east from
Kennedy Space Center and 32,000 pounds into a 98? inclination from Vandenberg
Air Force Base. The Shuttle will provide for routine operational return of
32,000 pounds of payload but can accommodate the contingency return of
65,000 pounds. The Shuttle is capable of a once-around return to the launch
site.. The first orbiter is scheduled for delivery to Kennedy Space Center in
late 1978 or early 1979. Delivery of orbiters 2, 3, and 4 will be spread over
the next 5 years; options for a fifth orbiter are being maintained, with
delivery projected for fall 1984 or later pending Presidential approval.
(NASA STATUS REPORT ON SHUTTLE NEEDED HERE.)
The Shuttle system provides for services of from two to seven crewmembers for
up to 30 days of on-orbit operations. Allowing all orbiters to operate out of
either launch site, the four-orbiter fleet will eventually be capable of 38 to
53 flights per year. Addition of a fifth orbiter would increase the range to
between 53 and 70 flights per year.
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Upper stages are required for altitudes beyond the Space Shuttle's capability,
particularly for geosynchronous missions. As mentioned earlier, the Inertial
Upper Stage (IUS) full-scale development is well underway with an initial
operational availability in mid-1980. The smaller Spinning Solid Upper Stages
(SSUS) for smaller payload requirements are under development with initial
operational availability in mid-1980.
Launch and Landing Sites. NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC) will be ready in
mid-1979 to support initial orbital flight tests and operational missions by
mid-1980. The Air Force's Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), using an existing
launch site and many other modified existing resources, is planned to be
available to support operational Shuttle missions in mid-1983. Orbiters shall
be capable of launching and refurbishing at either site.
Mission Operations. The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Mission Control Center is
being modified by NASA to provide orbiter flight control and support for STS
missions. Orbiter flight control for both civil and Defense missions during
early phases of operations will be handled by NASA at the JSC Mission Control
Center. Future mission characteristics, security requirements, flight rates,
or survivability needs may eventually require an additional separate flight
control center.
As mentioned earlier, different worldwide tracking and receiving stations will
support spacecraft operations depending on the sector involved. Defense
payloads will be supported by the tracking station network of the Air Force
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Satellite Test Center. Civil payloads will. be supported by the NASA Space
Tracking and Data Network. The NASA network will be phased down as the
Tracking and Data Relay Satellite system, rientioned earlier, becomes operational.
Priorities. NASA has the overall responsibility for developing the scheduling
for Space Transportation System ground and flight operations. The scheduling
can be significantly impacted by on-orbit system failures, changing inter-
national situations, or natural disasters. Within the projected mission
model, there are space programs of high national security priority, essential
programs requiring continuity of operation;, contracted-for launch services,
and programs with unique. and infrequent launch windows. Defense and intelli-
gence missions have been given the highest priority.
Security. Defense and the intelligence community transition to the STS have
required that, for many missions, the flight and ground systems designs,
operating procedures,. and data handling satisfy the security requirements of
classified space programs. The STS presents a significantly changed operational
environment from that of expendable launch vehicles. The NASA/Defense Aero-
nautics and Astronautics Coordinating Board, mentioned earlier, is studying
the lowest cost approach that ensures security adequacy.
TRANSITION PLANS. During the transition periods the highest priority space-
craft are being designed for launch on either ELV's or the STS (i.e., to be
dual compatible) but are being scheduled for launch on the STS. Dual compati-
bility provides for the assured launch of hiiglkest priority payloads while
Shuttle reliability is being proven.
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The Delta and Titan expendable launch vehicles to be procured for backup will
be compatible with operations from either coast. Launch vehicles which are
unused at the east coast can be transferred to the west coast. Although ELV
costs are the price of early transition and of assurance of launch capability
in the event of unforeseen problems, they are being minimized by buying a mix
of complete vehicles and long-lead time hardware.
NASA Plan. All payloads to be launched by NASA during the transition period
are scheduled on the Shuttle. NASA plans no ELV operations after Shuttle
initial operational capability (I0C) is attained. Early expendable launch
vehicle backup is provided only for missions having a limited launch window or
for which continuity of data and service is particularly significant---e.g., for
operational meteorological and communications satellites. The last Atlas-
Centaur--which is typically used for launching communications satellites--is
currently scheduled to be launched at about the time of completion of the
Shuttle orbital flight test. The Delta launch vehicle will be phased out at
the Western Test Range upon activation of STS capability.
NASA, however, currently plans on the partial production of four Delta vehicles
with an option for two additional vehicles to maintain as a backup to the
Shuttle. Production of these vehicles will be phased to require a minimum
progressive investment in the event that critical needs can be met without
them. NASA will review the Delta backup situation at appropriate decision
points. The resulting transitions are reflected in Table III--East Coast
Mission Model and West Coast Mission Model.
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SHUTTLE AVAILABLE
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
SPACELAB
SPACE SCIENCE
APPLICATIONS
TECHNOLOGY
1
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4
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NAVIGATION
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RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
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APPLICATIONS
OPERATIONS
METEOROLOGY
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OCEAN SURVEY
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NAVIGATION
TECHNOLOGY
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Defense and Intelligence Plan. The Defense and Intelligence transition plans
are reflected as well in Table III. Satellites intended for national security
purposes require higher confidence in the new launch system by defense and the
intelligence community. Overlap of ELV and Shuttle launches is also the
result of contractual obligations and the additional cost to modify satellites
on contract in order to transition earlier. For instance, to redesign these
spacecraft to fly on the Shuttle in FY 198:1 and FY 1983 respectively would
require redesign and restructuring of the program at additional costs (both
schedule and dollars).
Defense and Intelligence recently reviewed whether the transition plans for
their satellite systems were appropriate. Obviously, some satellite systems
are more critical than others. Roughly speaking, those satellites dealing
with strategic indications and warning, communications intelligence, and
strategic arms treaty verification were placed at the highest level of priority.
Navigation satellites, weather observation satellites, and some communications
satellites are somewhat less important on the average. Satellites which tend
to be the sole source of data collected are more important than those which
form just one portion of a data collection system. Priority judgments of this
kind were combined with an assessment of the technical risks; that is, the
technical changes that must be made to a spacecraft system in order that it
25X1
can fly safely on the Shuttle and the technical problems with the Shuttle's
main engine and programmitic delays. Generally, a more conservative transition
approach was recommended on high priority programs.
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The Defense and Intelligence backup ELV plan provides protection for payloads
scheduled for Shuttle launch from Kennedy Space Center and from Vandenberg
through FY 1985. This plan protects against the chance of Shuttle grounding,
slippage in IOC, and shortfall in expected Shuttle performance. The backup 25X1
ELV procurement strategy is similar to that being used by NASA in that it
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minimizes sunk costs while retaining the option to complete launch vehicles if
required. The present procurement strategy consists of starting three complete
Titan vehicles in FY 1979, two sets of vehicle components which would be
assembled within 12 months, and four sets of long-lead materials which would
permit assembly of complete vehicles within 24 months.
Table VI shows anticipated Defense and Intelligence funding for backup ELV's
as a function. of the date of the first time the Shuttle meets its performance
milestones--a saving after late FY 1979 of
declining to
by mid-FY 1982. Thus, under the best conditions
could be avoided, while the remaining set of launches would
entail extra costs. It is obvious that the key determinant in savings is the
readiness of the Shuttle.
NEW OR EXPANDED CAPABILITIES. While the STS provides the foundation of the
national space activity for the next several decades, it is necessary to look
beyond this era by continuous application of technological advances. There
are new and expanded space capabilities which are under varying phases of
consideration and evaluation which may be required to meet future space
mission objectives. The areas discussed here range from augmentation of
Shuttle capabilities to completely new concepts.
Extended Duration. The 25 kw non-nuclear power module under design definition
study by NASA will offer on-orbit durations for the orbiter of over 30 days
25X1
and increase power available to payloads by two to four times. Launched by
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the Shuttle, the power module can be used while docked to the orbiter, used in
a'free-flying mode, serviced on-orbit, and returned to earth for refurbishment
and reuse.
Upper Stages. Considerable study has been accomplished on upper stage capabili-
ties beyond those of the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS). A reusable space tug
could deploy payloads and return to the Shuttle and ultimately retrieve pay-
loads from high altitudes for return and refurbishment. A higher capability
manned orbital transfer vehicle could perform the functions of the space tug
and would extend man's utility from low altitude Shuttle mission orbits to
geosynchronous altitude to support many of the complex activities involving
construction and maintenance at high altitudes. The solar electric propulsion
stage, with its extremely high specific impulse, will augment the STS capability
in performing a variety of cargo transport missions in high earth orbits and
in interplanetary regions of space.
Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle. Studies have been made of a Shuttle-derived
vehicle wherein a large cargo module is substituted for the orbiter. This
vehicle could transport very heavy (over 150,000 pounds) and large (over
22 feet in diameter) payloads to low earth orbit to support, for example,
fabrication of very large structures for such missions as communications or
solar energy collection.
Reusable STS. Another extension of STS capability to enhance its operational
flexibility and its cost-per-flight economics could be a reusable first stage
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or flyback booster. A number of technically feasible concepts have been
studied which could form the basis for future effort if warranted by the long-
term future trends of the national space activity.
Single-Stage-to-Orbit. Single-stage-to-orbit vehicles under current study
offer the potential for further reduction in operational costs over staged
systems. These systems might also offer significant operational flexibility
by avoiding most of the operational constraints of either expendable launch
vehicles or the Space Shuttle.
RECO1NE DED ACTIONS
Rate of Transition to Shuttle, Although there is an obvious sequence in
transition steps,. each has its unique constraints. Furthermore, the timing of
each step is critically dependent upon the development progress of Shuttle
flight. and. ground systems and on program and budget. considerations.
NASA's transition plan calls for the partial production of four Delta vehicles
with an option for two additional vehicles. The cost of this insurance invest-
25X1
ment in FY 1979 is approximately $16 million (about the cost of one Delta
launch).
As a result of 2
Defense and Intelligence review, an accelerated rate of transition to the
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Recommended Action
In taking into account the Defense and Ingelligence recommendations for
accelerating transition of systems to the Shuttle, the. planned schedule for
transition provides at this time the most effective balance between costs and
risks. This transition maintains redundant launch capabilities before becoming
too dependent too soon on a new system--the Shuttle--whose reliability has not
been established. The key determinant is the readiness of the Shuttle that
cannot be determined at this time. Until the Shuttle milestones are demonstrated,
no additional reprogramming is warranted at this time.
0MB will assess the appropriateness of the additional costs resulting in the
25X1
accelerated transision recommended by Defense and Intelligence
in the FY 1980 budget review. In addition, 0MB will explore oppor- 25X1
tunities for cost savings in subsequent budget reviews through accelerated
transition rates to the Shuttle by all agencies. As such, Defense, the DCI,
and NASA will prepare semi-annual charts on the Shuttle development sdule,
transition schedules, and alternative cost paths.
Operations Management Responsibility. The organizational separation of space
sectors during the past two decades has resulted in redundancy in three
support functions: launch control, mission control, and user control facili-
ties. In general, NASA has controlled most launch operations from the Eastern
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Test Range--with the exception of geosynchronous launches by Defense--while
Defense has controlled launch operations from the Western Test Range. This
separation of launch control was encouraged. and promoted by the unique mission
requirements of each sector, particularly the security- and operational
requirements.
As we move toward Shuttle, it is appropriate to review our policy on separate
organizational control over support facilities to determine whether potential
cost savings are possible. It may be possible to consolidate control functions
now, so fewer new facilities will have to be constructed, and fewer older
At issue iswhether the operational responsibilities of Defense and NASA
should change as the Shuttle transition and operational periods approach.
There are-several approaches which include: (a) Retain the current arrange-
ment of having separate Shuttle mission control facilities for the civil and
military sectors. (b) Place total operational management control over Shuttle
with NASA. (c) Place total operational management control over Shuttle with
Defense.
Recommended Action for FY 198CI Budget Review
The total cost in both near and far term, not only due to the duplication of
facilities but also due to the duplication of operating methods and procedures,
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needs to be addressed. As such, 0MB will complete a budget cross-cut on
Shuttle operational management responsibility and make recommendations on this
issue during the FY 1978 budget review over the next few months. Points that
need to be considered in addition to potential cost savings include: NASA
being able to provide access to a wide range of uncleared civil and foreign
space customers; Defense and Intelligence being able to afford the maximum
protection for classified programs; and whether to maintain the separation
between the civil and military sectors.
Additional Space Capabilities. The Shuttle and the other elements of the STS
will be the backbone of space capability through the 1980's and well into the
1990's.. Nevertheless, they represent today's technology, today's understanding
of. the opportunities afforded by space, and today's understanding of the
position of the United States in the world. These will change as our perception
of the use of space in support of national goals change. Finally, the position
of the United States in the world is not static.. Chainging pressures will
alter the priorities which we assign to space activities.
Recommended Action
Recognizing the 7- to 10-year development cycle for large space systems, NASA
will head an interagency task force to examine what Shuttle augmentation and
follow-on systems are required to serve the nation's space needs in the 1980's
and beyond. Representation will include Defense, the DCI, Commerce, 0MB, NSC,
OSTP, State, and others as appropriate.
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This task force will submit the findings of this examination to the Space
Policy Review Committee for transmittal to the President by August 1, 1979.
As appropriate, augmented capabilities will be initiated during the annual
budget process.
Implementation of Shuttle Survivability. It is US policy that survivability
of space systems will be pursued commensurate with the planned need in crisis
and war and the availability of other assets to perform the mission. The
threats to survivability of the STS and its resources include, among other
things, accidents, terrorism, communications jamming, and direct attack while
on. orbit. Given the current posture of Space Shuttle design and fabrication
progress, major vehicle modifications for survivability would significantly
impact development and/or production schedules and cost, or require deferment
of implementation to an orbiter block change.
Recommended Action for the FY 1981 Budget Process
Concerned agencies--NASA, the DCI, and Defense--will study
what future step might be necessary and make recommendations to the Space
Policy Review Committee by August 15, 1979, so that appropriate findings can
be reflected during the FY 1981 budget process.
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V. SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE SECURITY POLICY ALTERNATIVES
INTRODUCTION. When the United States started its space reconnaissance program
in the late 1950's and early 1960's, there was considerable uncertainty as to
foreign reaction. The Powers U-2 incident in 1960 emphasized the high poten-
tial for a major confrontation and embarrassment, yet the need for strategic
intelligence was overpowering. The US strategy was to be as unobtrusive as
possible, keeping the existence of the program covert and avoiding the necessity
for foreign acknowledgement. In concert, the civil space program and benign
applications, such as verification of arms control agreements, were emphasized
in public and led, over the years, to implicit general acceptance of remote
earth sensing for a variety of purposes.
The fact that the US and the USSR use satellite reconnaissance monitoring
techniques is a notorious non-secret. For example, a recent book by former
DCI William Colby--cleared by the CIA prior to publication--discusses the use
of satellites for intelligence collection. Furthermore, Secretary of State
William Rogers stated in 1972 that surveillance satellites were one of the
means used to monitor SALT I. Back in the mid-1960's President Johnson in
a speech in Tennessee extemporaneously stated that the US used satellite
photography to observe Soviet ICBM deployment. He in fact added that this
activity alone justified the expenditures on our space program.
Presidential Directive NSC-37 revised the security policy for space intelli-
gence activities by downgrading the fact that the US conducts satellite
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reconnaissance for intelligence purposes--without disclosing the generic
type--to CONFIDENTIAL (XGDS). PD-37 specifies that the special product controls
(over imagery and other space-derived data) is to be used sparingly by the
DCI.
This section examines two possible revisions to the current policy:
- First, a simple declarative declassification only of the fact that satel-
lite photoreconnaissance is one of the means used by the US to monitor
SALT compliance.
-- Second, a possible extension of this declassification to selectively
declassify and release photoreconnaissance imagery for furthering economic,
social, and political objectives of the US.
Declassification of the "Fact of"
BENEFITS AND RISKS. There exists concern among the general public that the
SALT II agreement now being negotiated is unsound, in part because of public
perceptions that the Soviets cannot be trusted to comply with its terms.
Opponents of a SALT agreement charge that the Soviets have cheated on SALT I
and that the US has an inadequate ability to verify compliance with SALT II.
In answering these charges, government spokesmen are prohibited from stating
that the US conducts satellite photography to verify SALT compliance. They
are restricted to using the euphemism National Technical Means (NTM) when
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describing verification capability. Members of Congress have been briefed on
US monitoring techniques and the fact that NTM includes satellite photography
is well known by the press and much of the informed foreign affairs community.
The term NTM, however, is lost on most of the lay public. Moreover, the current
necessity to talk by indirection easily converts in the public mind to a
feeling that the Administration is being evasive and is trying to cover up an
inherently weak case for SALT.
Declassifying the "fact of" photo-satellite reconnaissance could enable govern-
ment spokesmen to make a more effective case for a SALT II agreement. The
ability to refer to easily-comprehensive intelligence capabilities would help
allay public concern that we can adequately verify Soviet compliance with the
terms of the agreement.
There are, however, risks associated with the declassification of the "fact
of." They are:
The classification of the "fact of" satellite reconnaissance has served
as the first line of defense for the security of overhead intelligence
programs. After declassification, US agencies and officials could be
under considerable pressure, both legal [Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)]
and otherwise, to provide ever increasing information about the recon-
naissance programs, as well as imagery itself. Some agencies believe
this pressure may be virtually irresistible and irreversible. Other
agencies believe that the line can be-drawn in this case as in others
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(e.g., nuclear weapons developments), especially since the "fact of" is
already widely known, even if not officially acknowledged.
There may be adverse Soviet reaction to a public statement that we use
photoreconnaissance satellites and subsequent harmful consequences in
various arms control discussions (et-g., ASAT, EGB) and other outer-
space issues. High-level consultation with the Soviets on the scope
and implications of the US proposal should therefore precede any
public announcement.
There may be adverse reaction in the UN Outer Space Committee to
prominent US acknowledgement of its photoreconnaissance activities,
particularly on the part of the developing countries who have already
expressed concern that civil remote sensing activities pose a threat
to their military and economic security. The LDC record at the UN has
been one of narrow self interest. This would probably result in
increased pressures for controls on remote sensing from satellites and
possibly demands that "military" satellites be banned. On the other
hand, the fact is already widely known.
Issue for Decision
Some believe that with appropriate preparation, the "fact of" can be
declassified with real but not unacceptable risks to intelligence security
and to US foreign and domestic policy. According to this view, we could
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proceed now to publicly state that photo-satellite reconnaissance programs
are among the means used by the US to verify Soviet compliance with SALT and
other arms control agreements. There is an obvious, commonsense value to the
forthright admission of what is already widely known. Furthermore, they
believe that contingency plans should be -developed prior to public announce-
ments on this matter. These would include:
-- A low-key, informal release stipulating that (1) declassification of
"fact of" is limited to photoreconnaissance for SALT and (2) all data
derived from overhead reconnaissance remains classified and compart-
mented in accordance with existing guidelines.
A revised security plan so as to maintain intelligence discipline.
Others believe that the "fact of" satellite photography can be declassified
but with a probable near-term and long-term impact on US satellite reconnais-
sance. They further believe that acknowledgement of the "fact of," without
some public use of information or imagery from space reconnaissance, is
insufficient. Further, they believe that prior to a decision on implementa-
tion more study is needed over the next 5 months. This study would evaluate
the ramifications of declassifying the "fact of" and develop a full and
detailed execution plan that would include: a security plan to maintain
intelligence discipline; a consultation strategy with our allies, the Soviet
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Union, and members of the US Outer Space Committee; and contingency plans
by responsible agencies.
Declassification of Photorecon.naissance.Imagery
Any decision to go beyond declassification, of the "fact of" and to addition-
ally include a selective and phased public release of substantive imagery
increases both risks and benefits. It is believed that the risks and the
potential long-term benefits of such a policy revision warrant a careful
assessment of this possibility before acceptance or rejection. But, of
course, such an assessment would be pursued only if the "fact of" were
declassified.
POTENTIAL BENEFITS/RISKS. The broader use of previously-classified data
could well be an efficient means of meeting certain domestic needs for an
authoritative. data base supplementing (or in some cases replacing) imagery
sources currently available to the private and public sector. For example,
stereoscopic imagery of cartographic quality has already been collected over
most of the world; its exploitation has been strictly limited to government
intelligence and mapping functions; its value to mineral and petroleum
exploration--either in raw image form or as analyzed thematic geological map
products--is likely to be high if properly used, representing as it does a
quantum increase in the exploration data base.
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Other economic applications of such data include: land use changes, disaster
assessment and relief, environmental monitoring, forestry inventories, and
crop productivity. Some of these applications require the repetitive coverage
being offered by civil systems and not envisaged for intelligence systems.
Civil uses, however, would benefit from the availability of a high-quality
imagery data base in many instances even if it were quite old. Much stored
imagery could be made available today.
While declassifying solely the "fact of" may enhance public confidence in
SALT II, flexibility could be provided in the US in international affairs by
less-constrained use of remote sensing data. Verifiability and verification
could be more credibly demonstrated with the release of imagery or information
derived therefrom. Peacekeeping possibilities might include private or public
release of visual evidence or information and analysis of impending crisis,
hostile actions, or threatening situations (weapons shipments, border violations,
nuclear capabilities); selective economic development information could be
provided without subterfuge as to data sources.
The risks associated with limited unclassified disclosure of selected satel-
lite imagery can be categorized as follows:
Current international concerns relate to publicly released imagery.
Imagery from intelligence systems provides information on militarily
significant targets such as airfields, missile deployments, etc. With
frequent monitoring, military deployment and levels of military production
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can be determined. As this realization is appreciated--more directly
relevant to the national interests of the non-major powers--we could
expect resistance and pressure for restrictions by other countries.
Such disclosure could be expected to lead to questions as to the other
uses of the space systems. The Outer Space Treaty reserves the use of
space for "peaceful purposes." Privately, the United States has inter-
preted the term to mean non-aggressive purposes, but that defensive
military and intelligence functions are legitimate. There is no inter-
national foundation for this interpretation, except the absence of a
public international confrontation.
The Soviets have maintained the basis for flexibly distinguishing between
legitimate and illegitimate remote earth sensing. Disclosure of the
imagery surely would force discussion throughout the international
community--not. just the communist bloc, but the non-alligned countries as
well as our allies. The Soviets may also use the release of imagery to
attempt to legitimate their ASAT activities.
Disclosure of selected imagery provides some information on the design
and capabilities of the imaging system. For film return systems, this
may be acceptable as their capabilities are generally known already,
although the implications of this could cause adversary nations to
increase concealment measures.
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IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS. Should the additional decision be taken to
selectively release imagery, a number of additional factors would have to be
taken into account in formulating another implementation plan. Certain of the
factors are summarized below.
The USSR. The USSR is sensitive to world opinion about the relative techno-
logical capabilities of the US and the Soviet Union. Comparisons between
Soviet and US imagery capabilities produced by US release of imagery, would
tend to cast the USSR in an unfavorable light. Second, the Soviets could view
a public policy change as casting doubt on their ability to prevent "espionage"
from outer space. For internal and international prestige reasons, they might
choose to take a hard line, including a more negative posture in ASAT negoti-
ations, augmented development of their ASAT systems, and renewed efforts in
the UN to establish stringent limitations on the conduct of remote sensing
activities. Last, declassification could be viewed as a. form of international
"one-upsmanship" by the US, especially in light of current US-USSR tensions.
If imagery release were contemplated, any assessment would have to examine
whether to inform the Soviets beforehand of the scope, purposes, and timing. of
any release. The Soviets would react more strongly to a US decision to release
imagery than to declassification of the "fact of." As such, a risk-benefit
analysis of declassifying imagery must take Soviet reactions into account.
Intelligence Security. The classification of the "fact of" satellite recon-
naissance has served as the first line of defense for the security of overhead
space intelligence programs. After declassification, US agencies and officials
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would be under considerable pressure to provide more information. More
importantly, however, information obtained from photography alone is often
ambiguous; intelligence judtments are derived from analysis of data from a
variety of sources, including SIGINT. We should not compromise other intelli-
gence sources and methods as a result of releasing photography. Well-thought-
out strategies of information release and management of requests are necessary
preconditions to even take steps toward declassification of imagery.
Impact on Other Issues. Decisions,on the future organization of the US
remote sensing program would be impacted by decisions to release previously
classified imagery. If the US sets up a new organization structure for remote
sensing from space, for example, this could raise issues concerning the future
management of satellite reconnaissance, particularly if the imagery presently
classified were declassified for wider civil application. Selective release
of imagery would also blur the line between civilian and military-intelligence
remote sensing. The heretofore highly touted US policy of open dissemination
of remote sensing data would lose credibility, and new policies will have to
be examined.
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International Reactions. Existing programs of international civil remote
sensing and widespread recognition of the arms control verification by satel-
lites have lead to widespread tacit acceptance of the principle of data
collection from space. Announcement of the "fact of" the existence of photo-
reconnaissance satdllites and the release of imagery may force governments to
take positions they have heretofore avoided taking.
With the release of imagery, countries previously quiescent about overhead
reconnaissance might be forced to take a position on the basic questions
concerning sovereignty and exploitation by more powerful states. Many develop-
ing countries. (LDC's) increasingly recognize that they can benefit from remote
sensing. However, the LDC's generally are arguing for a restrictive legal
regime governing these activities, asserting that release of remote sensing
data to third parties without their prior consent is a violation of their
national sovereignty and poses a threat to their economic and national security.
The effect of a US release of high quality imagery could be to stiffen their
resolve to restrict overhead reconnaissance. One would expect that the
obvious international benefits of strategic arms control would soften such
arguments. Many, indeed, recognize that satellites are essential for arms
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control. The record of the LDC's in the United Nations, while largely one of
narrow self interest, may not be an accurate measure of real LDC responses.
In fact, some segments of LDC's may in the long run see it in their interest
to gain access to better quality imagery.
US Public Reactions. The announcement of the "fact of" would serve to affirm
the commitment of the Administration to greater openness in government and the
promotion of space operations for keeping the peace. Without public examples
of data quality, however, there is some question as to the degree of public
satisfaction of verifiability.
There is no question that data on space intelligence would be sought under the
FOIA.and that,. in all probability, legal proceedings could force disclosures
inimical to the intelligence discipline and national security. Even if
impeccable guidelines were established and maintained as to what is classified
and why, the courts would not be bound to adhere to them in deciding FOIA
cases. Such guidelines could be established by Presidential Directive.
Recommended Action
Preliminary review suggests the possibility of a new national policy in the
use of remotely-sensed imaged data for a spectrum of US interests, both
domestic and foreign. The focus would be on the use of remotely-sensed data
and the information that can be derived therefrom, not on the management of
the collection systems which acquire such data. All agencies agree that
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further study is necessary that would include full and detailed execution and
contingency plans developed well in advance of policy revision to release
su4stantive imagery.
Further work on analyzing the concept of a space intelligence policy which
looks beyond the "fact of" change should fall into four phases:
1. An intensive analysis of the points and possibilities noted in this paper
by selected individuals from the Departments of Defense and State, the
Intelligence Community, and the Executive Office of the President under
the direction of the NSC staff. This will be accomplished in 2 months.
2. Presidential review and decision on desirability of change and appro-
priate scope.
3. Detailed development and setting in place of the implementation elements--
consultation strategies, security planning, contingency plans--by the
responsible agencies over a period of at least 3 months.
4. Execution after final Presidential review and approval.
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VI. GOVERNMENT ROLE IN REMOTE SENSING
INTRODUCTION. The United States has and will continue to derive many
benefits from space applications in meeting national defense, foreign policy,
and economic needs and objectives. The L'S has pioneered the development in
both classified and unclassified programs of space application technology,
notably in communications, navigation, and various technologies for remote
sensing.
Earth remote sensing from space is an application of current and potential
significance in the four sectors mentioned earlier in Section II: Federal
civil, intelligence, military, and private. Remote sensing from space can
contribute to national needs and goals, :Lncluding:
Contributing to national security in support of. a wide variety of mili-
tary and intelligence activities.
Maintaining US leadership in space _echnology and its application, to
the benefit of our security and the balance of trade.
-- Assessing domestic and foreign resources for economic development,
energy sources, conservation, world's food supply, etc.
Improving weather and other environmental forecasts and enhancing our
scientific understanding of earth on a global basis.
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-- Promoting international cooperation and stability.
This section addresses the status and next steps in Federal civil sector
remote sensing programs, including interrelations with the military and
intelligence programs and the involvement of the private sector. In this area
many decisions depend on the future evolution of technologies with many
unknowns; others require further consideration by the responsible agencies
or the Space Policy Review Committee. Decisions on specific programs will
come to final decision in the normal budget process. This section has five
parts, addressing remote sensing activities for the atmosphere, the ocean,
over land, the integration of systems, and private sector involvement.
ATMOSPHERIC PROGRAMS. The first meteorological satellite was launched by
NASA in 1960. The civil operational system was established with NOAA in
1966. NASA has developed the spacecraft: in conformance with specifications
and schedules provided by NOAA. The entire procurement and launch of the space
equipment as well as all the data are unclassified. Data are provided to the
US and numerous foreign weather services. Many foreign countries have direct
readout satellites for the data. The US is the leader in developing worldwide
meteorological satellite systems, although other countries (including the
USSR, Japan, India, and Some European countries) either have their own
meteolological satellites or are planning them.
In a parallel activity, Defense operates: the Defense Meteorological Satel-
lite Program (DMSP). DMSP was initiated, to provide worldwide cloud cover
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data in support of intelligence photorecommaissance satellites since the
imaging satellites were film limited. Because of technological advance,
timely weather information remains important but not critical. DMSP's oper-
ation now has been essentially declassified, although the data transmissions
remain protected through encryption. The military Air Weather Service uses
DMSP data along with other military and civil data to supply military customers
worldwide. The DMSP data are routinely made available to NOAA for use by the
weather service and to some foreign governments. 90AA's program is coordinated
with Defense's through the joint Defense/NOAA/NASA Polar Orbiting Operational
Meteorological Satellite Cobrdinating Board mentioned earlier.
Next Steps. The current operational capability is scheduled to continue with
improvements introduced as feasible and necessary. Several improved or new
sensors are now planned for introduction into the operational systems during
the period 1978-83. Operational spacecraft being procured now for the NOAA
and DMSP systems will provide coverage until 1984-85. If operational con-
tinuity is to be maintained, design and procurement of follow-on spacecraft
must be initiated in FY 1980-81.
OCEAN PROGRAMS. In mid-1978 NASA launched SEASAT-1, the first civil remote
sensing R&D satellite exclusively dedicated to observing the dynamic character-
istics of the ocean surface. Wave characteristics, ocean surface temperature,
and sea ice dynamics can be derived from SEASAT observations. Data could
contribute to improved ship routing and coastal disaster warning. In addition,
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maps of ocean current patterns and temperatures will be used in fishing,
pollution dispersion, and iceberg hazard avoidance.
Several Federal agencies--NOAA, NASA, Office of Naval Research, Coast Guard,
US Geological Survey, and NSF--are funding selected scientific experiments
using SEASAT-1 data. Incremental development aimed at contributing to ocean
observations has been carried on with instruments flown on the Nimbus satel-
lites. For example, a coastal zone color scanner designed to observe the
color changes associated with contaminants will be flown on Nimbus-G, which is
due for launch later this year.
Next Steps. Requirements for large-scale ocean observations--which are needs
of the NAVY, NOAA, and others-indicate that these uers could benefit from a
system based on the SEASAT and Nimbus-G technology. There are a number of
aspects, however, that need to be verified. NASA, Defense, and NOAA are
expected to propose as a FY 1980 new start the implementation of an operational
demonstration of a National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS). It would be
launched in 1984 and operated for a 5-year period. After 3 years of operation,
a decision on whether or not to continue the system in a fully operational
status would be made. A joint project structure now is in the planning stage
pending program decision and has been described in the section on technology
flow between sectors. The incremental cost for NOSS is estimated at about
$50 million per year (average annual cost) during the fabrication and launch
stage and $20 million annual operating costs thereafter.
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LAND PROGRAMS. In 1972 NASA launched the first experimental remote sensing
R&D satellite specifically designed to observe surface features of the earth.
Now called LANDSAT, this program has demonstrated the potential for multi-
spectral observation from space for earth resources. LANDSAT-C, recently
launched, provides direct data readout and has ground resolution of 30 meters.
LANDSAT-D is approved for launch in late 1.981 and has a programmed life through
the end of 1984. It will have ground resolution of 30 meters. LANDSAT-D' is
planned as a backup to LANDSAT-D, but it could be used to extend through the
end of 1985 (assuming a successful launch in 1982). Multispectral LANDSAT
data are the only unclassified satellite imagery presently available for
general use. Domestic applications include the following:
Agriculture is engaged in a cooperative effort with NASA and NOAA to
develop and test technology based on LANDSAT to monitor crop conditions
and provide production forecasts.
Defense and the Intelligence Community use LANDSAT data for monitoring
and mapping. Since 1973, CIA has used LANDSAT data in conjunction with
classified photographic imagery in estimating Soviet grain production.
Energy is exploring the potential contributions of LANDSAT data for
energy policy and planning; e.g., exploration, exploitation, power plant
siting, and environmental assessment and monitoring.
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Interior is using data for small-scale mapping, exploration for minerals
and fuels, pollution detection, and inventories of irrigated land.
Several states are using data for planning and management of their
natural resources and demonstration projects in land cover inventory,
surface water inventory, and flood control mapping.
Private oil and mineral companies are known to be using LANDSAT data in
-- Experimentation is now underway, to develop remote sensing applications of
satellite data in forest management, land use classification, and conser-
vation practices assessment.
Cooperative international activities undertaken by the US using LANDSAT have
involved many countries. The US policy has been to disseminate LANDSAT data
to anyone at a nominal charge. In addition to applying LANDSAT-derived
natural resource information in traditional development projects, the US
government has invested $14 million in bilateral programs building up national
remote sensing laboratory centers in less-developed countries. Project AIDSAT
helped establish three regional remote sensing training and user assistance
centers, partially funded by AID. Other foreign receiving stations exist in
Canada, Brazil, and Italy, with stations being built in Japan and Iran.
Additional stations are planned in seven countries. To date, no direct US
funding has been used--other than in the AIDSAT project and support of
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temporary receivers--to support the development of a foreign LANDSAT receiving
Next Steps. Some improvement in the current ground data handling system would
be desirable to reduce the time delay in making data available. The next
steps as now seen include the following:
1. Some improvements in the current ground handling systems for LANDSAT
data.. From the standpoint of the user community (especially in time-
dependent applications like agriculture) it would be highly desirable to
reduce the time delay in making data available. Measures to accomplish
this are expected to be proposed and reviewed in the FY 1980 budget.
2. Assurance of data continuity. Current and prospective users and experi-
menters (Federal,, private, and international) relying on LANDSAT data
need a reasonable degree of assurance; that LANDSAT or similar data will
continue to be available after LANDSAT-D, in order to justify the program-
matic and financial commitments their uses entail. This is especially
important to encourage private and other non-Federal users of and invest-
ments in remote sensing.
3. As presently conceived, a minimum system based on sensors derived from
LANDSAT technology would consist of two spacecraft in orbit for coverage
every 9 days plus a back-up on the ground for minimum interruption in
service in case of failure. The data. system would be configured to make
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processed data available within 48 hours of observation time. Present
estimates for implementing this option are an average annual cost of
almost $75 million for spacecraft construction and launch (initial phase,
about years) and approximately $20 million per year thereafter for
systems operation and maintenance.
INTEGRATED CIVIL REMOTE SENSING SYSTEM. Until now, civil space programs for
the observation of the atmosphere, the land, and the sea have been conducted
more or less separately. However, there are new developments and consider-
ations that make the establishment of an integrated national system for
observing the earth worthy of review:
-- The Shuttle and new satellite data relay technology make possible com-
bining sensors on the same platform on an economic basis without
compromising reliability.
The array of-sensors now emerging for the observation of the atmosphere,
land, and-oceans, and examination of data needs, indicate that a select
group of several sensors on a limited number of common platforms can meet
a large number of requirements.
The feasibility of using a National Oceanic Satellite System to meet
joint civil and military requirement:: in the ocean area, without jeopard-
izing military security or civil and international space policies.
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The potential for introducing previously classified imagery for broader
application.
Establishing a pricing policy, since to date the pricing for remote
sensing has been primarily the cost of reproducing the data for the-
individual user, plus, in the case of foreign ground stations, a slight
access fee--some $200,000 per year.
The global and political nature of remote sensing from space requires proper
focus and government authorization and supervision. Historically, there have
been a number of research and development organizations, two operating organi-
zations, and AID making international arrangements. The policy had been
effective in encouraging users, but uniformity and careful consideration of
implications and precedents have been difficult. The worldwide interest in
remote sensing and growing capability of other countries assure that inter-
national activity will increase.
PRIVATE SECTOR INVOLVEMENT IN REMOTE SENSING. To date remote sensing activi-
ties have been primarily a Federal function. Several private sector companies
and groups have expressed interest in the commercial exploitation of remote
sensing satellites. Some would like to be able to sell imagery to any prospec-
tive purchaser. Others, such as the GEOSAT Committee, would like to see
remote sensing spacecraft specifically designed to carry out certain missions
of interest to private companies (e.g., geological mapping).
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Private sector roles could include a broad range of possibilities: (1) manage-
ment and provision of commercial services, such as COMSAT provides for communi-
cations; (2) delegated operational responsibility for major components of
remote sensing systems (e.g., a US centralized data receptiona and processing
center, marketing and pricing functions); and (3) normal contractor roles in
providing contractual services on products and in building R&D hardware and
software.
Prior to PD-37 more active participation of the private sector in civil remote
sensing has been discouraged because of security problems. PD-37, however,
provides the basis for a more active but government-regulated private role.
Higher resolutions that would be attractive to industrial, commercial, public
agency, and idnividual users are now possible. As PD-37 is quite recent, NASA
and the other agencies need more time to actively explore private sector
emerging interests and roles.
ISSUE FOR DECISION
Issue #1--Should we establish an operational civil remote sensing system based
Option 1--Defer a decision at this time and continue with LANDSAT as a
developmental satellite program expected to provide data through
1985.
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Option 2--Guarantee the continuation of remote sensing data and commit to
further technological evolution as operational experience is gained.
Decisions on specific LANDSAT projects would be made in the context
of the annual budget process.
Option 3--Commit now to an operational remote sensing satellite system based
on LANDSAT with full development of the technical and organizational
arrangements necessary for an operational system.
Under Option 1, experimentation and demonstrations would continue, operational
uses of data from the experimental system would continue to be made by public
and private users prepared to do so, and further effort could be undertaken to
aggregate prospective user demand and assess the potential economic and other
values of various applications of civil remote sensing. An official policy
declaration supporting the continuation of experimental and demonstration
programs would be issued, but no policy commitments would be made for the
future.
The advantages of Option 1 are: (a) It minimizes the Presidential commitment
through policy and budget commitments in an area where there are many techni-
cal, qualitative, and management uncertainties. (b) While a successful experi-
mental program, many users are unwilling to commit now to LANDSAT data services
in lieu of other current and potentially better technologies (e.g., aerial
photoreconnaissance). (c) It prevents premature exclusion of the private
sector in providing "LANDSAT-type" sensing. services. (d) It preserves the
myriad of future international options.
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The disadvantages of Option 1 include: (a) It reinforces the widely-held
perception that the Executive Branch cannot make up its mind. (b) It delays
a commitment to a practical space technology that has numerous applications,
thereby delaying further expansion of users. (c) It runs counter to strong
Congressional interest expressed in various bills that would commit the
Executive Branch to programs and financial, resources that may not be warranted.
(d) It increases the likelihood that other nations may achieve competitive
advantage in exploiting remote sensing technology.
Under Option 2 it would be national policy to guarantee the active exploration
of remote sensing data with the intended provision to make improvements. Data
continuity would be guaranteed through 1985 with an implied commitment beyond.
Specific details and configurations of this "LANDSAT-type system" would evolve
over the next several years during the annual budget process.
The advantages of Option 2 are: (a) It provides policy assurance that the US
is committed to the continuity of data in the remote sensing area for both
domestic and international users. (b) It minimizes the impact on the FY 1980
and 1981 budget but provides policy commitment beyond. (c) It permits
considerable flexibility and time to understand better the aggregation of
user requirements, the appropriate operational roles, and any international
involvement.
The disadvantages of Option 2 are: (a) It delays commitment and runs counter
to Congressional interest described under' the disadvantages of Option 1.
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(b) A policy guarantee for the continuity of data and technology development
may still not be enough to get users to commit to'LANDSAT. (c) Assignment
of Federal agency roles and missions will not be made any easier under this
approach.
Under Option 3 NASA would take the lead with other mission agencies to actively
begin to construct a national system based on LANDSAT to become operational
in the early 1980's. Private sector involvement as well as government operations
of the system would be analyzed. Recommendations on organization arrangements
and optimum system design would be submitted to the Space Policy Review
Committee by September 1, 1979. Congressional authority would be sought to
support the recommended approach.
The advantages of Option 3 are: It would be a visible and bold Presidential
initiative that assumes that the benefits have been demonstrated--or are
confidently expected to be by the early 1985's--when an operational system would
come into being. (b) It recognizes the maturing of remote sensing technologies
and that current domestic and international users need data on an operational
basis. (c) It provides a clear signal of the government's long-term intentions
which may stimulate private investment. (d) It provides opportunities for
constructive US initiatives in the international arena.
Disadvantages of Option 3 include: (a) Its impact on the FY 1980 and 1981
budget would be considerable since a Federal commitment on operational status
would be meaningless unless accompanied by budgetary support. (b) Private
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investment may not be as forthcoming as expected at the present state of
technology development without considerable Federal subsidy. (c) It presumes
a greater certainty about appropriate mix of technology suited for an opera-
tional system than currently exists. ,(d) It presumes a better understanding
of alternative organizational and management arrangements--including the
private sector-than currently exists.
ADDITIONAL ISSUES FOR FURTHER REVIEW
Atmospheric Programs. The organizational separation for meteorological
satellites between NOAA and Defense over the past two decades has led to
redundancy. It is appropriate to review cur policy on separate organizational
control over meteorological programs to determine whether potential cost
savings are possible. There are several possible approaches which include:
(a) Retain the current arrangement of having separate NOAA and Defense programs.
(b) Place all weather satellites under NOM. (c) Place all weather satellites
under Defense.
Recommended Action for FY 3.980 Budget Review
In the FY 1980 budget review OMB, Defense,, and NOAA will conduct a cross-cut
review of meteorological.satellite programs to determine the potential for
budgetary savings and program efficiency. Recommendations will be made on the
feasibility of program consolidation and the degree to which special needs of
Defense users--including the encryption of data--require a separate program in
the 1980's.
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Ocean Programs. Large-scale ocean observations-which are needs of the Navy,
NOAA, and others--could be met from a program described as the National Oceanic
Satellite System (NOSS). Many aspects of this proposal still need to be
verified.
Recommended Action for FY 1980 Budget Review
NASA, Defense, and NOAA will propose as an FY 1980 new start the implementation
of an operational demonstration of NOSS. Any policy decision on this program
proposal will be made during the FY 1980 or future budget reviews.
Integrated Remote Sensing System. Experience with the several remote sensing
satellites clearly suggests that an active exploration of integrated systems
collecting atmospheric, oceanic, and land data should be carried forward. A
comprehensive plan covering expected technical, programmatic, and institutional
evolution is needed.
Recommended Action for FY 1981 Budget Review
All agencies support moving to an integrated system for observing the atmos-
phere, land, and oceans from space. NASA will chair an interagency task force
to examine the conceptual design, management approach, and operating framework
for an integrated national system. Agency participation will include Commerce,
Defense, the DCI, Agriculture, Interior, Energy, State, AID, OMB, NSC, and
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OSTP. This task force will complete the review by August 1, 1979, and submit
recommendations to the Space Policy Review Committee for forwarding to the
President prior to the FY 1981 budget.
Private Sector Involvement. Regardless of what is decided on whether to
proceed towards an operational remote sensing system, PD-37 stated that we
would encourage the commercial private sector into remote sensing applications
under government supervision and regulation. To date no framework has been
established to receive proposals from the private sector.
Recommended Action
NASA and 0MB will encourage private investment and direct participation in the
establishment and operations of civil remote sensing systems. These agencies
will assure that in planning for the operational system, the government would
actively develop alternative modes for private investment and direct partici-
pation. Possibilities of guaranteed pruchases of services by the government
or other incentives will be explored. NASA, and 0MB will be the contacts for
the private sector on this matter and will submit any proposals received to
the Space Policy Review Committee for consideration before forwarding to the
President.
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VII. SPACE SCIENCE AND PLANETARY EXPLORATION
BACKGROUND. Space science and planetary exploration programs include research
on the terrestrial atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere, the sun, the
planets, and astrophysics. Extraterrestrial biology and studies of human
adaptability to space are also included in space science. In the past two
decades, results in these fields have been enormous due, in part, to a growing
technical ability to build sophisticated spacecraft with extremely sensitive
instruments, durable power sources, and communications systems. The resultant
knowledge has produced a major advance in our knowledge of the solar system,
our galaxy, and the universe.
The space science programs are administered by NASA and consist of four
elements--the planetary,. astrophysics, solar terrestrial, and life sciences
programs. Logical scientific progress in each element is achieved by a
balanced program of flight projects compleriented and supported by ground-based
theoretical, laboratory, and observational activities and by suborbital
observations funded by NSF and NASA. Scientists and engineers in universities,
industry, and Federal laboratories participate in the program. The purpose,
number, timing, and chronological order of flights are defined in response to--
and in conjunction with--representatives o:E the scientific community through
the mechanisms of advisory groups, workshops, and mission teams. The prime
source of overall scientific advice and strategy is provided by the Space
Science Board of the National Academy of Sciences and by periodic reviews of
entire discipline areas by the NAS.
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PLANETARY PROGRAM. The goals of planetary exploration are to extend our
understanding of the formation and evolution of the solar system through study
of solar system bodies (planets and their satellites, comets, and asteroids)
and to apply that understanding to continual assessments of past, present, and
future processes on earth. Our strategy for accomplishing these objectives
uses a three-stage approach: reconnaissance, exploration, and detailed study.
The near-term, general objectives to be accomplished in the next few years
are to:
Initiate reconnaissance of comets and asteroids in the solar system
through a detailed reconnaissance of a comet and a later multiple asteroid
rendezvous mission.
Continue the program of comparative planetology with a detailed investi-
gation of the surface topography of Venus and a comprehensive exploration
of the Saturnian system.
Initiate. an intensive Mars exploration program and examine sample return
as the key long-term goal of the program.
Reconnaissance. Fly-by missions provide preliminary information and a "close
look" not available from earth.
Past Targets: Mercury (Mariner), Venus (Mariner), the Moon (Ranger), and
Mars (Mariner).
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Current Targets: Jupiter and Saturn (Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager).
Planned Targets: Comets (1981) and asteroids (mid-1980's). These
primitive bodies are expected to play a key role in theories of solar
system evolution. The long-duration missions depend on development of
the solar electric propulsion stage. Missions to the most distant
planets (Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto) are being considered for the late
1980's and beyond.
Exploration. Using Orbiters and/or Landers, this provides scientists detailed
information on global climate, evolution, and surface characteristics.
Past Targets: Moon (Orbiter, Surveyor), Mars (Mariner, Viking).
Current Targets: Venus (Pioneer, Venus Orbital Imaging Radar), Jupiter
(Galileo).
Planned Targets: Venus (Orbital Imaging Radar), Saturn (Orbiter/probe).
Venus is the planet most like earth in size and climate, and a detailed
atmospheric and topographic program is vital to our understanding of the
planet and imporved comparison with our own. A comprehensive exploration
of the Saturnian system is needed so that the two giants of the solar
system, Jupiter and Saturn, can be compared.
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Intensive Study. This provides very detailed information including sample
returns and focuses on specific questions of high importance.
Past Targets: Moon (Apollo).
Current and Future Targets: Mars. The next step could be a sample
return mission which could be launched in the late 1980's or early
1990's and would cost $1.5-2.5 billion. No decision is needed now, but
detailed studies must begin to insure adequate information for the 1982
decision point.'
ASTROPHYSICS. PROGRAM. The goal for astrophysics is to understand the origin
and continuing evolution of the cosmic environment and the fundamental laws of
physics that govern observed cosmic phenonnena. In the next few years the
program is designed to focus on:
-- Studying high energy processes occurring in neutron stars and black
holes, the creation of elements in super nova explosions, gamma ray
background radiation, and the source of gamma ray bursts.
Determining, with high spatial resolution, the position and structure of
pulsars, quasars, galaxies, clusters of galaxies, and the intergalactic
medium.
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Current Programs and New Initiatives. The first space facility using Shuttle
payload capability and the single most important element of the astrophysics
program, is the 2.4-meter space telescope currently under development. This
orbital facility operates in the visible and near-visible range of the spec-
trum. It may detect planets orbiting nearby stars, look back into time some
15 billion years, and help decipher the now-unexplained energy generating
mechanisms of stellar systems and their constituents.
Another set of national facilities will operate in higher ranges of the fre-
quency spectrum. There is a scientific requirement for comprehensive study of
high-energy processes that occur in the universe. The high energy astronomical
observatory (HEAO) series will provide information over the next 2 years, but
follow-on observatories are required. The planned gamma ray observatory (GRO)
would provide the first comprehensive study of the high-energy process of
neutron stars and the "black holes." The advanced X-ray astrophysics facility-
under study--would provide a national facility in the X-ray spectrum range.
Future Activities. Because of the differences in detection requirements for
various parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, we need to develop sensing
systems for general use in each segment of the spectrum. Future facilities
under consideration include:
A large, free-flying cosmic ray observatory.
-- A large area modular array of X-ray detectors.
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-- An orbital very long baseline inferometer to provide radio "pictures" of
sources like galaxies, quasar nuclei, and galactic water vapor.
Missions such as Mercury orbiter and solar probe would permit relativity tests
near the sun. Other planned studies will help determine our ability to
detect gravity waves and observe relativistic effects from earth orbit.
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL PROGRAM. In this area the objectives are to understand our
local star (the sun) as an astronomical body, as the source of earth's light
and heat, and as the major source of energy for the earth-space system and
therefore the climate. In addition our objectives are to understand the
character and variability of the earth-space system; to understand the physical
processes that shape, control, and link the individual elements of the system;
and eventually to predict the potential effects of naturally-occuring and
human-caused perturbations of the earth-space system. Missions planned for
the next several years will focus on the following objectives:
Study long-term variability of atmospheric conditions and the inter-
actions between different regions of the earth's atmosphere.
- Investigate the physical processes that transfer matter and energy
between the solar wind, earth's magnetosphere, and earth's ionosphere;
and particularly study the causes and effects of magnetic substorms.
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Determine the processes that heat and accelerate the solar wind and solar
energetic particles, investigate the Internal distribution of matter in
the sun, and conduct precise relativistic and gravitation experiments.
Current Programs. The three-element international sun-earth explorer program
is investigating the dynamic interactions between the solar wind, energetic
particles, and the earth's magnetosphere. This mission is a key element in a
worldwide international magnetospheric study. Other programs include:
-- Solar mesosphere explorer, studying the ozone layer.
-- Solar maximum mission, to be launched in late 1979, to study solar
flares and coronal transients and provide support to ISEE studies.
Solar polar mission, one of a series of missions to explore the "quiet
time" of declining solar actitivy, to be launched in 1983 to study
variations in the solar wind, magnetic field, and particle emissions in
as yet unexplored high-latitude regions of the sun.
New and Projected Initiatives. Concurrently with the solar polar mission, a
complementary system of near-earth satellites is planned for deployment in the
solar wind, the magnetosphere, and the magnetotail to investigate the processes
that transfer matter and energy from the solar wind and ionosphere into the
magnetosphere. Other projected projects include:
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Spacelab experiments with optical, ultraviolet, and X-ray imaging
equipment to study the sun.
Origins of plasma in earth's neighborhood, a series of earth-orbiting
satellites to support the solar polar mission.
Atmosphere, magnetosphere, and plasma in space program, a series of
experimental pallets to be flown in the Space Shuttle for short-duration
missions.
A re-equipped solar maximum mission spacecraft to serve as a free-flying
observatory for long-term monitoring of solar winds near earth.
A solar probe, to approach within four solar radii of the sun and investi-
gate interior composition.
A "space scale" pinhole camera/coronograph for high resolution studies of
high energy solar events.
LIFE SCIENCES. The objectives in life sciences are to ensure human health,
well being, and effective performance in space flight; to utilize the space
environment and space technology to advance knowledge in medicine and biology;
and to understand the origin and distribution of life in the universe. Past
life sciences flight observations have focused on evaluating possible hazards
to crew health and on identifying factors that could impair crew performance.
CON H DENTIAL
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While those activities will continue to be important, the Shuttle-Spacelab will
enable us to conduct a significantly greater number of types of flight experi-
ments. The program objectives for the next several years will:
Use the space environment to investigate the fundamental effects of
gravity on living systems.
Seek to understand the mechanisms leading to the physiological changes
that have been observed in humans exposed to zero-gravity environment.
Current Programs. The first of the SpacelELb life sciences flight experiments
is scheduled on Spacelab 1, and the first vestibular function research units
will fly on the third Spacelab mission. Research during early Spacelab missions
will focus on the causes and alleviation of space motion sickness.
Projected Activities. The Shuttle-Spacelab will not provide sufficient flight
time for some experiments and processes in space. Eventually, long-duration
(6 to 12 months) flights will be necessary to develop components for partially
and fully-closed regenerative life support and environmental control systems
for space flights of even longer duration. The problems of small groups of
people living and working in a confined environment for long periods will also
be studied, as will the potential application of the Shuttle-Salyut concept to
longer duration missions. Future plans also include searching for extra-
terrestrial and unique terrestrial life forms in an attempt to answer questions
on the origins of life and the existence of intelligent life in the universe.
CONHUENTIAL
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NATIONAL COORDINATION. NASA programs in space science are complementary to
those of other government agencies and must be placed in context to be evalu-
ated. For example, there is a national program in astronomy. While the major
responsibility for ground-based astronomy :Lies with the National Science
Foundation, the data obtained about phenomena or objects accessible to the
ground-based. astronomer is tremendously enhanced by data obtained above the
atmosphere from space platforms. Thus NASA and NSF work. closely together to
prioritize and coordinate mission requirements.
Similarly,=there is a national program in atmospheric research, made up of
NASA, NSF, and NOAA programs with unique capabilities and charters. Both NSF
and NOAA have active research programs, and NOAA has sensors for research on
some of its weather satellites. Each program is dependent in part on the other
for filling gaps in data, for corraboration, and for the synergistic effect
obtained by examining problems from-differing vantage points.
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION. International cooperation in space science provides
an important tool for political interaction with other nations and is a valu-
able instrument in our effort to maintain an international free flow of science
information. The US space science program is open to worldwide participation
on a competitive basis. Over 45 foreign experiments have been carried on US
spacecraft. A number of missions have been truly cooperative projects with
foreign governments or the European Space Agency supplying major spacecraft
(now over 29) or spacecraft components. There is currently about $400 million
(run out) of such foreign-funded cooperative effort now underway or expected.
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This is dominated by the European Space Agency (international sun-earth
explorer, space telescope, solar polar mission, and international ultraviolet
explorer), the Netherlands (infrared astronomy satellite), and Germany (Galileo).
For the most part, there has been no indication, other than possibly by Japan,
that there is a desire to greatly increase! the number of cooperative programs.
In fact, in ESA there has been a definite move to identify more programs which
carry the ESA mark vice US-ESA. In most of the individual European countries
there are diminishing prospects for major new cooperative efforts because these
European efforts are becoming more able to run their own space programs without
US involvement.
The current level of international cooperation can probably be sustained, and
there are prospects that increased coordination may be attainable. Increased
coordination of programs is desirable. It would mean more science for the
resources invested, on a worldwide basis. However, potential program overlap
is small because most other countries have avoided (or cannot compete in)
scientific experiment areas where the US dominates..
Recommended Action
Space science is an especially appropriate endeavor for government support
because as basic research the long-range benefits accrue to all mankind, and
the initial investments are beyond the rang;e of private industries or founda-
tions. It is possible to construct a plan at any given time which includes a
large number of high-quality scientific missions. Their number has always
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exceeded the capability of the available budget to support it, and this
condition will prevail, as is evidenced by the above capsulated summary of
scientific opportunities. Proposed new projects will be evaluated on their
merits and' in consideration of the budgetary constraints. Long-range, broad
goals can be set, however, to establish the directions in which to proceed to
provide a focus for long-term research activity and to provide a context in
which to judge new proposals.
At current budget levels and considering relative priorities, it has been-
possible to maintain a balanced program of space`science and planetary explora-
tion. The philosophy of establishing a balanced program can be maintained.
A decreased budget would result in a lack of timely new data such that scien-
tists would divert their interests to non-space areas. A long-term cut of
20-30 percent would cause the deletion of major program elements.
We will articulate broad space science and planetary goals. Specific program-
matic decisions will be resolved in the annual budget process. In some years
we would do less because of budget constraints, in other years more. Our
broad goals for the next decade will include:
-- We will maintain US leadership in space science and planetary exploration
and progres at a measured pace along a balanced front. Priorities at
any given time will depend upon the promise of the science, the avail-
ability of particular technology, and the budgetary situation.
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The US will continue a vigorous program of planetary exploration. Our
goal is to understand the origin and evolution of the solar system. We
have considerable knowledge of the moon, a major insight into Mars, and
will soon obtain our first close-up view of Saturn. As yet we have only
scant knowledge of convents, the most primitive objects in the solar
system.
Our goal in the 1980's is to begin the reconnaissance of the outer planets
and to conduct more detailed exploration of Saturn, its moons, and its
rings; to continue comparative studies of the neighboring planets, Venus
and Mars; and to conduct reconnaissance of comets and asteroids.
-- In the early to mid-1980ts we will see the completion of the first all
sky surveys across the electromagnetic spectrum. On completion of those
surveys, space astrophysics will move in two directions. One will be
towards observatories such as the space telescope that, like ground-based
counterparts, will last decades. The second direction will be to launch
free-flying satellites which detect energy from distant sources in other
galaxies and intergalactic space. Using these new capabilities we will
explore quasars, pulsars, and black holes and expand our appreciation for
the basic wonders of the universe.
-- It is our goal to develop a better understanding of our sun and its
interaction with the terrestrial environment, Space probes will journey
towards the sun--the nearest star--to-investigate its makeup and processes.
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Earth-orbiting satellites will measure the variation in solar output and
determine the resultant response of the earth's atmosphere.
The Space Shuttle and Spacelab will open up new opportunities in space
biology. Our goals will be to exploit the Spacelab to conduct basic
research that complements earth-based life science investigations and
human physiology research.
There is an. interagency consensus that-our policy in international space
cooperation. should include these primary elements:
-- Support. the best science available regardless of national origin, but
expand our international planning and coordinating effort.
Seek supplemental foreign support only for selected experiments-
spacecraft which have been chosen on the basis of sound scientific
criteria.
Avoid lowering cooperative activities below the threshold where momentum
would be lost and our competitive position, science, and international
cooperative efforts would suffer.
CUNHUENTIAL
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VIII. COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITES
Communications satellites are one of the most successful applications of space
technology. They are also the only example at this time of a major functional
activity in space being operated by the private sector. The communications
satellite business is profitable;. companies have invested over $ million
in communications satellites, and income is about $ million a year. In
addition to COMSAT, two other US corporations have put up their own communi-
cations satellites. While the private sector has played a leading role,
United States leadership in this field for numerous years was sustained in
part by government research and development and Federal assistance.
Emerging problems in the communications field may require new solutions. Most
communications satellites are in geosynchronous orbit, and the number of
useful slots available in that orbit is shrinking as more satellites are put
up. Some communications satellite applications--such as educational and
health services for remote areas--often involve low-volume and intermittent
use and may not be of interest to commercial satellite operators unless public
service demands can be aggregated, combining functions on one or a few satellites.
As we move forward with communications satellite services, two basic questions
What role should the Federal government play in actively stimulating
civilian satellite communications research and development?
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Should the Federal government facilitate or develop public service satel-
lite systems for domestic use and for international assistance programs?
A. FEDERAL ROLE IN CIVILIAN COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE R&D
BACKGROUND. US participation in commercial communications satellites started
with COMSAT, established by legislative mELndate and Federal subsidy of
million in 1962. COMSAT holds 53 percent ownership and manages INTELSAT
which launched the first international communications satellite in 1965.
Satellite telephone charges are one-fourth. of the 1965 rate, and television
rates have been reduced 80 percent over the same period. Despite rate reduc-
tions, INTELSAT collected revenues of $140 million in 1977, paying a 14 percent
return on investment to 102 participating countries. Satellite technology to
support communications needs has been rapidly developing in recent years.
United States leadership in the development and operation of communications
satellite systems for a number of years was sustained by government research
and development, quasi-Federal involvement through COMSAT, and Federal
assistance to the private sector.
In 1972, the Nixon Administration, through the budget decision process,
decided to rely more heavily upon the private sector for development of
advanced satellite communication technology and services. The decision to de-
emphasize the Federal government's role in satellite communications research
and development was reached in part because of budget pressures, but there was
also a determination that the private sector activity had matured sufficiently
to assume primary responsibility. -
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To meet commercial communications requirements, the private sector has
designed and built and is currently operating sophisticated commercial satel-
lites on orbit. At present these satellites are adequate to meet the needs of
the private sector and much of the government needs. Future communications
satellites, to greatly increase their capacity, will require major investments
in R&D. It is not clear that. there is presently an adequate financial incentive
for industry to invest the large resources required.. In some new applications--
direct public service or home television transmission-the private sector seems
unlikely to provide the major financial investment required to take experimental
steps.
Since. 1972, various groups have called for are-entry by the Federal govern-
ment into satellite communications research and development. The potential
return on Federal investment at this time would be to initiate research and
development that would explore concepts and hardware which would enter into
use in the 1980's or 1990's.
The general attitude of private industry toward Federal R&D has been assessed
through recent NASA and OSTP surveys. The prevailing view among common carriers
(but not among hardware manufacturers or Federal users) is that technological
development is proceeding adequately in most areas but that, while the United
States currently has the technological lead, the trends show some erosion of
this position. These surveys identified several areas where government.R&D
could foster development of new technology; e.g., low-cost ground terminals,
orbit and spectrum sharing. The hardware manufacturers expressed some concern
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over technological developments by European and Japanese industries. The
manufacturers felt that emerging markets and government programs, should they
develop, would provide an adequate stimulus for their further investment. The
manufacturers suggested a circumscribed government role mainly related to
research and development, not demonstration. The manufacturers' view generally
is based also on their knowledge of the technological developments supporting
the Defense sectors.
While NASA-supported communications R&D is currently limited, Defense planning
activities include numerous technology development projects. This needs to be
taken into account when considering additional Federally-supported R&D.
Issue for Decision
Issue #3--What role should the Federal government play in actively stimulating
civilian satellite communications; research and development?
Option 1--Maintain a minimal level of funding for communications satellite R&D
programs--the current level--and leave major R&D responsibility to
the private sector.
Option 2--Undertake selected communication;; R&D projects at NASA. The scope
and funding level would compete against other applications in the
normal budget process.
M`d
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Option 1 would be geared to a study activity and would enable NASA to maintain
some competence in this field. There would not be any significant hardware
research and development, flight testing of hardware,,or demonstration program
sponsorship to improve the utilization of communications satellite capabili-
ties. This option represents a posture in which the achievement of national
goals would be heavily dependent on private industry's R&D efforts.
The advantages of Option 1 are: (a) Evidence to date suggests US industry
has not lost their competitive edge because of NASA's withdrawal from civil
R&D support. Industry has received considerable technological support from
Defense for technology development. (b) Many in industry argue that impediments
are regulatory, not technological., (c) It has the least budget impact.
(d) It gives a clear signal that the government does not intend to fund such
R&D which might. stimulate more private sector involvement. The disadvantages
of Option 1 are: (a) The status quo has caused the perception this nation
has lost some technological superiority in satellite communications and may
lead. to further erosion. (b) Long lead time is inherent to significant develop-
ments in this area, and indecision now may prove very costly in the future.
(d) It may turn the future satellite communications system market over to
Western Europe and Japan, whose programs receive greater government support.
Under Option 2 the.Federal government would reenter advanced communications
R&D as the NASA Applications Satellite Program did in the 1960's and early
1970's. This program could provide for substantial system and hardware
developments, as well as their integration and flight testing. If a positive
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decision is made for a Federal initiative in this field, specific candidate
projects selected would then have to compete with other applications activi-
ties in the normal budget process.
The advantages of Option 2 are: (a) It would support US technological leader-
ship in satellite communications technology, but competitively with other
Federal expenditures for space. (b) It could provide technology for the use
of new and current-frequency bands in an efficient manner so that the foreseen
exhaustion of communications frequency capacity may be avoided. (c) It could
expand the use of the allocated spectrum practically indefinitely by develop-
ments in state-of-the-art and in spacecraft systems. (d) It would provide
expanding support to the US manufacturer and carrier industries. (e) It
responds to industrial, Congressional, and user support for Federal R&D in
this area based upon current and foreseen needs for transmission capacity.
The disadvantages. of Option 2 include: (a) A Federal program with these
elements might duplicate some efforts in the private sector. (b) It places
the Federal government in the role of civilian R&D in support of an industry
that is at present very solvent. (c) It could have a budget impact of up to
$35-50 million per year. (d) It reintroduces the government into communi-
cations R&D in a big way when industry generally may be looking for only a few
selected high technology R&D developments.
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B. SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS AND PUBLIC SERVICES
BACKGROUND. Many of the services provided by public agencies (such as the
Federal government, educational institutions, health centers, and professional
groups) are heavily dependent on the use of communications. Some of these
services can be improved in cost or efficiency by improved communications
services. Demonstration programs over the past two decades--largely subsidized
by the Federal government--have shown the technical feasibility of applying
satellite communications to some public service needs Ce.g., education in
remote areas and video training links between Veterans' Administration hospi-
tals). The results of this work have led the Veterans' Administration, AID,
HEW, and other user agencies to invest their funds in transitional experiments,
but as yet none have become operational. While assessing the future savings
to be obtained from advancements in technology is always an uncertain activity,
we now have a substantially stronger base for estimating communications systems
costs than was available in 1972. The key remaining uncertainty is the willing-
ness of users to shift to advanced telecommunications services and the size of
the resulting markets to share the system costs.
Direct costs savings to the Federal government and to non-Federal public
service agencies would probably result if advanced satellite systems could be
put in place and if adequate markets can be aggregated.
The need for operational systems to provide delivery of public services to
address basic human needs is not limited to-only our domestic requirements.
CONEIflENTI L
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Technological advances required for a new generation of domestic services is
also necessary to meet the needs for international communications and a wide
variety of rural and urban communication needs in developing countries. The
US has made commitments to assist developing countries' programs (e.g., Nairbi,
Kenya, in May 1976 and October 1976; OAS in April 1977; and New Delhi, India,
in 1978).
Planned future commercial communications satellites, such as the COMSAT
General, IBM, and AETNA Company's Satellite Business Systems (SBS) are oriented
toward private sector users with high-volute communications--those who spend
$10 million or more annually on telecommunications. The SBS satellite system,
like others now on the drawing board, is not being designed to economically
facilitate. users who have communications requirements outside of the large
metropolitan markets. It requires a complex and expensive ground terminal for
high-volume communications and uses a relatively simple satellite design. For
future low-volume systems, user costs would be lessened with the required
complexity placed in the satellite, enabling the use of smaller ground termi-
nals with costs commensurate to the lower volume and usable by an unskilled
community.
How the carriers would react to proposals of additional services that would
meet the needs of rural areas, smaller communities, and some of the lesser-
developed country needs is not clear. Past approaches to the industry have
tended to be by individual agencies or by segments of the private sector.
These various groups and the various Federal agencies could get their needs
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organized so that the aggregate volume was a clear opportunity for business.
The current carriers and builders might then be willing to provide additional
reasonable service with existing satellites and invest in new systems. The
recent creation of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration
in Commerce provides an opportunity to the government to explore these public
policy issues.
Issue for Decision
Issue #4--Should the US government facilitate public service satellite systems
for domestic use as well as international assistance programs?
Option 1--At this time, do nothing to initiate a new public service satellites
program and continue to plan for the phasing out of existing experi-
mental satellite programs.
Option 2--Designate a lead agency to assist in market aggregation, technology
transfer, and development for domestic and international public
service satellites.
option 3--Specify and underwrite the development of a first generation public
service satellite system that would compete with other applications
in the normal budget process.
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Option 1 would involve phasing out the limited effort now being carried out by
the NTIA Interagency Committee on Satellite Telecommunications Applications
and the current $3 million per year program at NASA. This option would not
entail a special Federal effort to aggregate the public service community.
Federal user agencies would work with OMB and their on procurement officials
to purchase commercial satellite services where economically justified. No
significant investments would be made in research or development of tech-
nologies for widely-dispersed, low-volume users and, therefore, this option
would not address the needs of rural America and the LDC's.
Advantages of Option 1 include: (a) It will not impact on the budget. (b) The
private sector may eventually (after 1985) provide some of the needed services
if they become economically more attractive without any special Federal effort.
(c) The delay would permit analysis of the costs and benefits of low tech-
nology alternatives (such as improved use of the telephone or mails) and the
next generation of satellites before Federal effort is justified in the
satellite field. The selection of this option has the following disadvantages:
(a) It fails to take into account the need of public service agencies for
improved communications and of international assistance commitments. (b) The
potential savings of a coordinated Federal purchase of satellite services
would be lost. (c) The private sector may continue to see little reason to
plan for the low-volume consumer, and, therefore, would not plan for these
services in the next generation of communications satellites. (d) It ignores
the past success of national and international demonstrations and experiments
and may force ongoing programs such as the Appalachian Educational Satellite
Program to close down.
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Option 2 calls for a concerted effort to stimulate the aggregation of the
public service market and for applied research and development of technology
for low-cost services. Under Commerce's National Telecommunications and
Information Administration (NTIA) this effort would include: (a) an Administration,
policy statement supportive of public service satellite application; (b) OMB
forward approval of user agency budget items permitting them to enter into
multi-year contracts to purchase commercial communications satellite services;
(c) an. indentified 4-year core budget for Commerce to establish a management
structure--competitive against other budgetary priorities in Commerce--to
purchase bulk services; (d) modest support for R&D on technologies to serve
users with low-volume traffic requirements subject to its competitiveness against
other applications expenditures; and (e) AID to work with NTIA in translating
domestic experience in emerging public service programs into potential programs
for lesser-developed countries.
Advantages of Option 2 include: (a) This option would assure limited success
of some important innovations in public service uses. (b) This option would
advance space technology for public service users but by the private sector.
(c) Appropriate service tariffs could be established, and public agencies
would become accustomed to paying direct costs. (d) The Federal financial
obligation to operations would be concentrated on services. The major dis-
adantages of this option are: (a) It could be viewed as a retreat from inter-
national. assistance commitments made by former and present Administrations.
(b) It may reflect too much confidence in the readiness of public service
agencies to take advantage of new communications services.
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Option 3 adds to the tasks proposed in Option 2 and provides for a Federal
program to specify a satellite system suited for public service users.
The system would be designed to extend communications into rural and developing
areas. In addition, new services, such as emergency and disaster relief
communications via satellite, would be made available on an experimental
basis. The system could be commercially operated but would require substantial
Federal investment at the start ($300-350 million over 7 years). Federal
assistance which would phase out gradually, but completely, by the end of the
design life (e.g., 7 years) of the satellite.
Advantages of Option 3 are: (a) This option would assure some success of some
important innovations in public service uses. (b) This option would advance
space technology for public service users that could be transferred to the
commercial sector. (c) New communications services (e.g., mobile and emergency
radio radio services.) would be established. (d) It would expand and comple-
ment the Administration's commitments to LDC's for the transfer of appropriate
technology to provide a cost-effective system to meet user needs. (e) It
would provide, both domestically and internationally, relevant services to
meet the needs of dispersed low-volume users. Disadvantages of Option 3 are:
(a) Given sufficient aggregation of the market under Option 2, most of these
needs may be fulfilled by the private sector by the late 1980's, thus not
requiring a uniquely designed satellite. (b) Projections of cost savings for
government services under this option are based upon the long-term uncertainties
of market prediction for these services. (d) This approach would have the
greatest budget impact.
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IX. LONGER-TERM ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES IN SPACE
INTRODUCTION. The space flight capabilities the US is developing--particularly
the Space Transportation System--will make possible a wider range of activity
in space, including larger-scale projects. Eventually economic uses other than
communications may emerge. A number of proposals have been made for space
industrialization; e.g., materials processing in the weightless environment and
solar power satellites. The basic issue is: To what extent should the Federal
government. attempt to stimulate expanded economic activity in space by supporting
the development of the new technologies and. through demonstration projects?
Other nations have shown interest in some of these concepts. The USSR is
conducting experiments related to possible future economic activity; advance
planning for the European and Japanese space agencies includes economic con-
cepts, beginning with space processing experiments in the Shuttle and Spacelab.
In the United States, we assume that economic activity ultimately will be
pursued by the private sector. However, the government has the option of
playing a significant early role. This role could be critical given initial
uncertainties and high investment costs. Furthermore, such a role would be
consistent with the historical roles of the US government and private enter-
prise in the development of new frontiers and technologies.
Space industrialization could have major long-term benefits by generating new
or better processes, products, and services. In 1978, however, the payoff is
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difficult to measure since so many factors are still uncertain, and some key
technologies are yet to be developed. Nevertheless, US support for the general
concept of space industrialization would appeal to a variety of constituencies,
particularly private manufacturing firms, aerospace labor organizations, part
of the energy community, and those in the general public who support an imagina-
tive, forward looking US space program with eventual economic payoff. The
problem is how to state the longer-term goals so that there is necessary flexi-
bility for the step-by-step technological development and validation of decision
points on individual projects without undue commitment of resources or unrealis-
tic public expectations.
Basic Concepts and State of Progress
Space Processing and Manufacturing. The space environment offers unique
characteristics for materials processing and industrial operations; near-zero
gravitational acceleration; easily-available near vacuum; and full-time solar
energy. As 'a result, the space environment will facilitate scientific investi-
gations into materials processing and properties, production of exemplary
prototype materials, and performance of industrial processes in unique ways
(possibly producing better products such as special glasses and more sensitive
infrared detectors).
NASA has had a small space processing research effort underway since the late
1960's to establish the scientific base for materials behavior, to demonstrate
the potential of space processing to the commercial user, and to provide
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opportunities for independently-funded users to exploit the space environment
for processing. Further experiments will be conducted on the Space Shuttle. A
committee of the National Research Council recently studied progress to date
and concluded that, while the production of finished products in space is not
yet justified, further research is desirable. The committee's report recom-
mended that. the NASA program consist of two stages: First, development and
demonstration for perhaps 5 years; second, management of national space
laboratory facilities. Gaps in our scientific knowledge need to be filled.
In the development of any space manufacturing program, provisions should be
made so that industry can participate in special projects of interest on a
joint basis.. Presently-planned space systems would support scientific research
in materials processing, but not large-scale manufacturing which must await
better understanding of the processes and expected use of manufactured materials
in space or on earth.
Satellite Solar Power. Engineers have proposed that huge arrays of solar cells
in geosynchronous orbit collect solar energy and beam it by microwave to
antennas on the earth, where it would be converted into electricity for power
grids. A solar power satellite (SPS) would be an immense engineering project,
perhaps several miles long. If the concept proves to be technologically,
economically, and environmentally feasible, an SPS system could be a tool of US
foreign and economic policy, and could contribute to energy requirements of
the United States and other industrialized countries. It is a turn-of-the-
century development under best estimates. _
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The basic questions about the SPS concern (1) technological and engineering
feasibility, (2) economic feasibility, and (3) environmental and societal
impact. Initial studies indicate that the SPS probably would be feasible in
technological and engineering terms, though it might require an additional
earth-to-orbit transportation system (the heavy lift launch vehicle), new
techniques for assembling large structures in space, and new energy conversion
systems. Very preliminary economic analyses suggest that, if cost targets are
achieved for the SPS, it could be a competitive energy source in the early
2000's. Environmental questions--perhaps the most serious--concerning the
effect of the microwave beam on the environment and the impact of large numbers
of space launches require substantial study. An alternative power transmission
concept using lasers and the use of materials processed in space (from the
moon) to build the satellite solar power stations are also concepts to be
Development of the first SPS, including the costs of development and the HLLV,
has. been estimated to cost $75-90 billion; subsequent units would cost an
estimated $10-15:.billion each. These high front-end costs are a principal
disadvantage of SPS. However, these costs would be amortized over the 30-year-
plus lifetime of the system. Advocates of satellite solar power point out
that the US already funds large-scale research in long-range energy systems
(e.g., some $0.5 billion a year for fusion.). Further, cost sharing with other
nations may be possible.
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Energy and NASA are examining baseline concepts to make comparative assessments
of SPS and terrestrial power systems. Next: step program recommendations are to
be made in June 1980. Initial planning has begun for a ground-based exploratory
research effort beginning in FY 1980.
Advanced Communications Systems. Several proposals have been made to deploy or
build large frameworks in orbit that could support a variety of advanced communi-
cations applications. Proposals include antenna farms which would concentrate
the functions performed by a number of satellites into one location in orbit.
This could help solve emerging problems concerning the international allocation
of geosynchronous orbit locations and of electronic interference among the
growing number of satellites. Very large antennas in orbit could allow new or.
better communications services to be performed. It may also be possible to
build large complexes in space for data acquisition, principally for observation
of the earth.
COMMON PROBLEMS AND NEEDS. The economic development of the space frontier, as
in the case of other frontiers, will require these fundamentals: a reliable
and economic transportation system, efficient communications, abundant and
reliable energy, and places for people to live and work for extended periods of
time. In addition, space industrialization will require techniques and tech-
nologies for fabricating and assembling large structures in space.
While we have the transportation and the communications for near-term conceptual
testing---in space--of the longer-term developments such as those discussed
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here, additional stages or vehicles are necessary for economic heavy lift to
low-earth orbit and operations in higher orbits, particularly geosynchronous.
The 25 kw power module would provide power necessary for the first testing of
concepts, including` materials science and processing experiments, but would
not support greatly expanded space operations.
Many space industrialization projects imply the need for human presence as
construction and factory workers. We will need human-rated systems and
habitable facilities at the site of the economic activity. The Shuttle
orbiter will be able-to remain in orbit for about a week with its internal
fuel cell power supply, though its non-fuel payload goes down as stay time in
orbit lengthens. However, the orbiter was designed as a transportation system,
not as a space station. These longer stay time capabilities must also be
developed as a part of longer-term industrialization projects. The technology
and human experience in space necessary for these longer stay time needs must
also evolve.. While there are many paper studies of these questions, the body
of experience acquired with the Shuttle will be the next logical space develop-
ment on the way to more distant and more permanent habitation.
Bridging Technologies and Test Facilities. The Shuttle, projected develop-
ments that would enhance the Shuttle's usefulness (e.g., an orbital 25 kw
power supply), and the first civil and Defense missions will yield valuable
experience for further conceptual study of the longer-term prospective
economic and industrial developments. Moreover, some prospective mid-term
(1980's and 1990's) missions supporting both civil and military objectives
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will likely create a body of experience in the assembly of large structures in
The next evolutionary step might be the development of an experimental or test
platform in low-earth orbit--the Multi-Purpose Platform/Facility (MPPF). It
would bring together technologies and facilities required for long-term space
processing experiments, satellite power system development, and long stay
times in orbit. It could provide an intermediate step toward the realization
of space processing-and satellite power systems without a full-scale commit-
ment to either of those proposed projects. The platform would be a large
framework connected to a large power module, perhaps 200-500 kw. This
generator could provide an in-orbit energy source for a wide variety of operations
on or near the platform, and it might be designed to beam energy to other
points for application there. The platform itself could provide a mounting
for a wide variety of unmanned experiments and applications requiring an
energy source, including some related to space processing and space manufac-
turing'. A power module of this size would allow the testing in space of most
of the technologies needed for a possible future satellite power station,
perhaps including the transmission of microwave power to earth.
The MPPF concept requires much further review prior to any commitment, and
it has not been recommended now. It is, however, illustrative of the step-wise
evolutionary development that could take place over the next 20 years.
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GENERAL CONCLUSIONS. It is too early to make a commitment to the development
of a satellite solar power station or space manufacturing facility now due to
the technological and economic risks and environmental concerns. However,
there are very useful intermediate steps that would allow the development and
testing of key technologies, and experience. in space industrial operations,
without implying a commitment to a full-scale SPS or space manufacturing
project. It is possible to design evolutionary programs that will build on
current technology and open new options for space industrialization without
large financial commitments in the near term. As such, these will be reviewed
when appropriate within the Space Policy Review Committee and normal budgetary
process.
The principal issue in longer-term space industrialization is the difference
of view between those who would support a step-wise evolutionary development
that will be provided by the Shuttle and those who would make more rapid and
costlier commitments to space engineering. The enthusiasts will never be
satisfied with less than an "Apollo-like" program. The Administration needs
to articulate the way in which commitments that have been and will be made to
nearer-term objectives can serve as the basis for making longer-term decisions
at appropriate points.
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