SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS ON THE SOVIET UNION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R000500210004-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 20, 2002
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: February 25, 1977
• Content Type: MF

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DCI/IC-77-0742
25 February 1977
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Production Assessment and
Improvement Division, OPEI/ICS
FROM 25X1A
special Assistant to the
SUBJECT Systemic Problems in Intelligence Analysis
on the Soviet Union
1. Reference is your memorandum of 11 February (which
I received on 23 February), subject as above, and its attached
paper on "Intelligence Community Posture for Estimates on the
Soviet Union."
2. I strongly favor Alternative 2 of the outlined course
of action, with changes as indicated below. In my view, active
pursuit of Alternative 2 should be a priority task of PAID/OPEI.
a. I see no need for this becoming a PRC item unless
or until a price tag has been costed out. The DCI is
responsible for production of national intelligence and
the NFIB is his advisory group in this arena. While the
PRC has inherited the CFI function to "establish policy
priorities for the collection and production of national
intelligence," the CFI/PRC effort to date has been thoroughly
focused on resource-related issues.
b. Before the project is surfaced to the DCI and NFIB,
I suggest that a final section of your paper be prepared
within ICS which offers a st:rawman as to what needs to be
done and specifically how it is proposed the Community get
on with the tasks. The strawman should then be offered by
the DCI to NFIB as a preliminary paper to be addressed by
a task group representing NFIB Principals. This task group
would have something to put its teeth into from the start.
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c. The ICS/NIO examination of ways to make NIEs more
cost effective is, in my view, sufficiently different from
the problems to be addressed by the NFIB task group that
it should be handled separately.
d. Planning for the "user-community consortium" con-
cerned with a systematic approach to net assessments I
suggest should be part of the mission of the NFIB task
group.
3. I consider Alternative 2 far preferable to the "loosely
connected series of get-well actions" to which Alternative 1
refers.
4. Likewise, I view Alternative 3 as an unattractive
proposal since the direct support and commitment of the DCI is
essential to consummation of the project, and this is best
attained through the DCI/NFIB channel rather than through "an
inner group of Community elite." I recognize the proposed
Alternative 3 might be looked upon as a means of fostering a
direct DCI/ASD(I) approach to the problem, without recourse to
NFIB channels, but NFIB, not the ASD(I), is the DCI's advisory
support on production matters.
5. The draft paper is well done, but I suggest a few
editorial changes:
a. Page 3, sixth line: Delete "Thus" since the same
word is used to open the next sentence on line eight.
b. Page 3, fifth line from bottom: Substitute
"competitor" for "competition."
c. Page 5, first line of text: Substitute "effective"
for "effectively."
6. Getting agreement on even an approach to the problems
raised in the PAID paper will not be easy. The OSR comments on
I larticle in the Fall 1976 Supplement of "Studies
in Intelligence'--"Improving Strategic Intelligence Methodology:
Estimating the Soviet Five Year Plan"--are an example of what
may be the reaction from at lease: some production analysts.
25X1A
cc: Director, OPEI/ICS
2
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UL- a
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Distribution: (DCI/ICS-77-0742)
Orig. - Adsee.
1 - ES/ICS Chrono
1 - SA-D/DCI/IC
1 - AD/DCI/IC (FYI)
1 - IC Registry
SA-D/DCI/IC
(25 February 1977)
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UNCLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL SECRET
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OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
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NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
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Chief, PAID/ICS
E-08 Hqs.
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ACTION
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COMMENT
CONCURRENCE
DIRECT REPLY
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RETURN
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Remarks:
SUBJECT: Systemic Problems in Intelli-
gence Analysis on the Soviet
Union
cc: D/OPEI
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM- NAmr An
DATE
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C I A
FOIM NO. 237 Use previous editions
1-67 I