THOUGHTS ON PAID'S SIX-MONTH WORK PROGRAM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00171R002100030001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 8, 1976
• Content Type: NOTES

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Thoughts on PAID's Six-Month Work Program
-- NSC Review #2
Establish specific number of key problems/topics (six
is probably an ideal amount).
' Examine problems/topics in more detail than in NSC
Review #1.
' Review should be conducted with a view to seeking new
approaches for the IC to satisfy user requirements.
' PAID's efforts ought to be devoted to the NSC Review
exclusively.
This review ought to include a follow-on report concerning
open issues, problems and questions raised in NSC Review #L.
In this context, the NSC Review could be the foundation,
the base of everything we do.
The basic question posed by this semiannual review is
user/producer interface. What can be done to enhance it.
At what level--the top, high-level management, and/or
working staff?
' Consider all possibilities for the widest possible dissemi-
nation of the survey.
' Recommend closer coordination with "evaluation" organiza-
so
tions in various agencies in the IC (/ as not to duplicate
efforts).
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A tentative schedule:
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
A/ / I I / I t' I /
Planning Dead' Research Phase
Phase Time
Final
Prep
Phrase
Target
xapproval xdocumentation
xresources xconsumer
xICS + IC survey
xscope xother
xNSC guidance
xbriefings from
IC evaluation teams*
*DIA, CIA(DDO) eval teams
Some suggested topics:
xwriting
xanalysis
xintegration
xreview
xpriority
x Directed energy weapons program in the SU
.x Adequacy of political reporting in WE and LA
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Product Improvement--What and how?
' IC across board (CIA, DIA/etc.) should put out more inter-
disciplinary products. Care, however, must be exercises
to preserve the line between intelligence analysis and
policy formulation.
` Reexamine IC dissemination techniques and efforts with
a view toward improvement.
The age-old question of compartmentation and classification
needs careful reevaluation so that the widest possible
audience of decision/policymakers can see or will examine
more of the IC product.
' There is much to be done regarding the presentation of
intelligence (this topic treated as a separate item).
Question of "what product" must be answered: national,
strategic, tactical, analytical, collection, etc.--what?
We have not scratched the surface yet on the product for
field commanders.
' The reality of our day-to-day existence in PAID must be
faced. There are six people in PEB. How do we operate
differently than in the past "except at the margin?"
Much of our work is of the staff-action type on "matters
of the moment," putting out fires and the like ....
It might be useful to evaluate the 1976 crop of NIEs and/or
the NSSMs in progress. The NID itself could stand careful
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scrutiny; in this regard, a content analysis of the
NID over a year's time might be quite revealing.
` Obviously, we'll need to watch in the next six months
the trend of IC analyses that integrates the political,
economic, military, and the scientific/technical factors.
? There is a gap between near term and longer term report-
ing, particularly in the nuclear proliferation, technology
transfer, and terrorism topics. CIA and DIA products
might be the object of a close watch in this regard.
The NIO/PAID relationship/interface needs examination.
-- Community (Performance) Evaluations
? At least a segment of PAID's evaluative tools might
Development of such questionnaires could be
include structured questionnaires. / :a project to be
contracted out. Good questions could be used in conjunc-
tion with interviews and provide coherence to them; they
could be delivered by an "advance man," to be followed
by the interview people.
? This is really an organizational question, that is,,just
how much time do we devote to what? "When we worked the
RONI, probably 60 to 70 percent of our time was devoted
to that effort." What this means is that our tasks,
whatever they may be, must be clearly specified.
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We must find some way to keep current on who's doing
in the IC
what/on both the geographical and topical areas. Then
each PAID staffer ought to get all IC production related
to his specific interests/responsibilities to cross his
desk. NIOs must be carefully followed.
'Perhaps IC production might be followed by the Central
Reference Service (CRS). Can we get a soft core program
to develop the data? Automation of this facet of PAID
concerns could save us a lot of valuable time.
' Techniques/methods for evaluation ought to
be examined for possible use in PAID. A consultant or
contractor might be called on to help in this.
-- DIA Manpower Audit
This Audit deserves a close watch. "It's a good thing."
It works such questions as the weighted efforts of an
organization in terms of what it's actually doing. It
ought to show at a glance how changes in efforts or emphasis
affect organizational resources. PAID is committed to
review and evaluate this Audit. What it learns might be
applicable to the IC in general. The audit suggests an
examination of production measurement, costs, and resources.
The results may permit more efficient response to user
needs by being better able to manipulate IC resources.
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Post Mortems
' There's no way.to forecast requirements such as this.
Who could have predicted the impact of the GAO Mayaguez
agency reports? This points out the difficulty of
following any kind of work plan we might develop while
at Warrenton.
Some post-mortems that might be considered:
- Sub-Saharan Africa (begin in Angola incident
period.
- Indonesia
Vietnam
Topical
- crisis operations (Lebanon)
- crisis operations (Korean tree incident)
DCI Annual Posture Report
` We'll always be involved in this "report to the President"
one way or another each year. OPP is the assembly point
this year. PAID is submitting a segment on production
problems. The SSIC may be the stimulus for much of this
year's content.
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-- KIQ/KEP
KEP as such is more or less dead. However, we'll be
responsible for a KIQ evaluation next fall. Fifteen
KIQs must be examined in the first quarter of the year.
(KEP.was a formal program.) The question we face at
is "How will our PAID efforts interface with
the new KIQ program?" Somehow it ought to be linked with
the NSC Review.
' A new KIQ to be required on terrorism.
-- Approaches to the Presentation of Intelligence
* This is not a new topic but a very important question
for PAID.
' Imagine a video briefing of the NID for the senior and
high-level managers in this town.
' In earlier, planning when 27 were authorized for the PAID
staff instead of the current 18, this would have been one
of the major functions of a branch that would have, but
does not now exist. -
' PAID might consider a contract to work this topic
thoroughly ....
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Analytical Methodologies .
' This is really an element of product improvement. It's
in the nature of the PAID charter to be aware of as many
analytical and evaluative techniques as possible. OPR
has done work in this area. has been
contracted by CIA (ORF,D) to accomplish studies in analytical
methodologies. PAID ought to insure these studies are
widely disseminated in the IC, not just in the CIA.
Net Assessments
It has been suggested that a NSC conference be called to
discuss net assessments to work such questions as: What
are they?. How many should there be? How can they be
done better? Where does intelligence fit? Where does
the IC Staff fit in this? There is much work to be done
in preparation for such a conference. A carefully con-
structed point paper and agenda would need to be developed
and then coordinated with all participants. This question
ought to be brought up and, perhaps, the conference set
in motion before any possible "rearrangements of the
furniture" as a result of the election. worked 25X1A
on a paper in April 76 that addresses DCI involvement
in net assessments. In the beginning at least, PAID can
act as a "prodder" on this.
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Priorities for PEB's Six-Month Work Program
Must Do
P
? NSC Review #2 C. LJ
? DIA Manpower Audit Ij ll- l I 3/b~' ? /?. _rA-A_,~
? DCI Annual Posture Report r / `'
? KIQ Evaluations
? Follow-up on Nuclear Proliferation
? ICS SWAT Actions
- Should Do
? Technology Transfer
? Soviet Directed Energy Programs
? Analytical Methodologies
? Stud of Inted_''n `~`~
Y r} Needs of the Congressional Branch
Would Like to Do
? Terrorism
? Exploitation of Intelligence in Open Literature
? Requirements for Photographic Intelligence
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DATE
2511A
25 1A
The attached reflects t:-ie
unexpurgated ideas of PEI)
staffers plus some of
thoughts on variou- 25)1A
:opexpected to surface on
the meeting agenda. 2541A
The priorities reflect a c
posite judgment of PFR memt ers.
ROOM NO. BUILDING EXTEriSION
FORM NO .1 REPLACES FORM 36-8
1 FEB 5524 WHICH MAY BE USED.
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