BACKGROUND REPORTS ON ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R000500060006-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: February 3, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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TS #823156`
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3 Feb 82
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 Approved For Release 2Q0t~F A-RDP83M 0914R000500060006-9 25x1
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
TS #823156
3 February 1982
Copy No . 7
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Acting National Intelligence Officer for USSR
SUBJECT : Background Reports on Additional Sanctions
1. The attached papers dealing with additional measures that might
be taken with respect to Poland are background for tomorrow's discussion
at the NSC. The measures are grouped in five optinns (pp. 8-13). Options 1
through 4 are escalatory and range from current eftorts to enlist Allied
support (Option 1) to a total U.S. embargo against the Soviets (Option 4).
Option 5 introduces the concept of horizontal escalation and deals with
possible measures agair.st Libya, Afghanistan, and Cuba.
2. Of the four Polish development scenarios mentioned on p. 1 of
the Executive Summary, we believe (2) is likeliest--short-term maintenance
of order by force but longer-term instability. We think the possibility
of an outbreak of serious violence this spring is high.
3. The Soviets have committed themselves to repression of Solidarity
and suppression of liberalization in Poland. There is little immediate
prospect that they will desist from this course.
4. The one U.S. card that potentially might seriously affect Soviet
thinking is grain, especially if the U.S. could put togeth9r a credible
common front with at least some of the other supplier coirtr" es. Serious
U.S. consideration of grain sanctions would also undercut auy Soviet effort
to exploit European fears that the U.S. wants the Europeans to carry the
economic burden of sanctions while retaining the benefits of trade for
itself.
5. It is doubtful whether any of the possible actions indicated
against Libya, Afghanistan or Cuba would moderate Soviet behavior toward
Poland.
Attachment:
TS #820194
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 Approved For Release 2006/09/18: CIA- 8000500060006-9 25X1
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Copy No. 7
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MEMORANDUM FOR: DCI
DDCI
FROM
Acting
SUBJECT . Background Reports on Additional Sanctions
Distribution:
Cy. 1 - DCI (w/att)
2 - DDCI (w/att)
3 - Execut' (w/att)
4 - NSC/C, (w/att)
5 - C/NIC wo/att)
6 - DDI (wo/att)
7 - Executive Registry (wo/att)
8 - DDI Registry (wo/att)
9 - Acting SSRI(w/att
10 - NI0/USS9 Chrono (wo/att)
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