NEWLY EMERGING THIRD WORLD OIL PROCEDURES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001000060028-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2007
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: August 27, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/02/20: CIA-RDP83M00914R001000060028-9
CONFIDENTIAL
2 7 AUG 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM
Director of Global Issues
SUBJECT Newly Emerging Third World Oil Producers
1. Action Requested: None. The attached memorandum
responds to your 27 August request for background information on
oil and gas production in non-OPEC less-developed countries.
Some of the responses are preliminary and will be fleshed out by
next week.
2. Background: Your questions were stimulated by (a) the
5X1
and (b) concerns about denying the Soviet 25x1
Union access to energy technology and equipment. 25X
Attachment:
As stated
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CONFIDENTIAL
The Newly Emerging Third World Oil Producers
1. What was the standard for selection of these seven countries?
These countries were chosen because they began oil production after
1975, thanks to a concerted exploration effort which gained impetus
with the world oil price hikes of the early 1970s. Sudan was included
because significant oil reserves have been proven, but their remote
location will delay production until 1986.
2. What other countries have significant oil prospects?
Country Current Production Prospects
Malaysia 280,000 b/d Favorable prospects for
additional oil discoveries.
Substantial natural gas
reserves.
Indonesia 1,400,000 b/d Production currently
declining because of world
oil glut; however, explora-
tion continues at a hullish
pace.
Morocco less than 500 b/d Interest of international oil
companies in obtaining
concession acreage indicates
evidence of additional
liquid hydrocarbon potential.
Oil shale reserves are
substantial.
Egypt 650,000 b/d Good prospects for
additional oil discoveries.
Angola/Cabinda 135,000 b/d Angola has good prospects
for further oil discoveries.
Cabinda production will
double by 1986 because of
Gulf Oil's massive
investment program.
Gabon 140,000 b/d Prospects for additional
finds remain good.
Ecuador 205,000 b/d Limited prospects for
further finds. Export surplus
will continue to decline due
to rapidly rising domestic oil
consumption.
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CONFIDENTIAL
Peru 200,000 b/d Prospects for further large
discoveries are probably
marginal although
exploration continues.
Colombia 140,000 b/d Some geologists believe that
prospects in the mountain
region could be substantial.
Recent exploration has
encountered some promising
areas.
Argentina 480,000 b/d Prospects for oil discoveries
onshore are minimal.
Offshore area was once
viewed enthusiastically but
exploration results have
been very disappointing.
Chile 42,000 b/d Oil production has been
rising gradually since 1978.
Southern offshore area
(Magallanes) is geologically
promising.
Kenya none Oil exploration has not
yielded any positive results,
but the IBRD has recently
awarded Kenya a petroleum
exploration promotion loan
which will encourage further
activity.
Benin none Production of about 2,000
b/d scheduled to begin in
November 1982, and could
rise to as much as 10,000 b/d
by 1986. Likelihood of
further discoveries is
probably small.
Equatorial Guinea none Recent exploration has
uncovered some oil deposits
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CONFIDENTIAL
3. Which Third World countries have significant prospects for additional gas
production?
Country
Prospects
LNG (liquified natural gas) export project
in the works.
Ivory Coast LNG export project under study.
Chile
Argentina
India
Trinidad & Tobago
Egypt
Growing gas reserves will soon support a
major gas export project to neighboring
Brazil.
Sizable gas reserves have been proven.
However, Gulf of Thailand reserve
estimates have recently been downgraded,
calling into question the feasibility of a
proposed LNG export project.
LNG export project under study.
LNG export project in the works.
Large proven natural gas reserves will be
used for domestic consumption.
LNG export project under study.
Gas reserves currently insufficient to
support export projects, although some
companies are optimistic that sufficient
reserves will be proven.
4. What is the relevance of US technology, know-how, and capital to increase
exploration and discovery in these countries?
Requires further research on technical aspects. Most LDCs rely
heavily on US technology, know-how, and capital, although French and
Italian firms are also very active in Third World energy projects.
5. What are the opportunities and obstacles to promoting deep gas
drilling?
This technical question requires substantial further research, which
OGI will complete by 3 September. For now, we suspect the obstacles
are (a) the high cost of deep drilling; (b) the small size of domestic
LDC gas markets and currently sluggish world gas demand, and (c)
limited LDC experience with deep drilling technology.
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