PIPELINE SANCTIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001200100006-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 6
• Content Type: MEMO

ACTION INFO . DATE- INITIAL
C/PAD/OEA
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/05/23: CIA-RDP83M00914R0012001000
24 May 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Pipeline Sanctions
tsLsJU.4~4 .
At the NSC meeting, State and Commerce pitched for giving Buckley
authority to throw in the pipeline sanctions at a 27 May meeting in Paris.
All the domestic people agreed except Treasury. Defense, Kirkpatrick and
I argued the other way. The points I made are these:
-- Poland - bad as ever - after some loosening, repression being
tightened - economy at 60% of capacity - likely to get worse
-- Soviet-European pipeline
- $15 to $20 billion in hard currency between 1985 and 1990
- $4 to $5 billion a year after 1990
-- We can delay, make more expensive, but not block unless there is
unforeseen change of heart in Europe. Still, crash program and
swap arrangement with British and Dutch could meet needs to be
provided by Yamal, and strategic stakes are so great that we.should
not give up.
-- First leg of pipeline will make Europe dependent on Russia for 20%
of gas.
By turn of century dependence will be 40% unless declining supply
from Holland and increased needs are replaced by non-Russian sources.
-- Norway has potential and needs assurance of market and financing
from Europe to develop.
Japanese market and Siberian development will give Soviets
$20-$30 billion hard currency over 20 years.
Lending to Soviets likely to be limited by financial and economic
considerations and any additional limitations obtained by
negotiations not likely to be significant.
-- Certainly $200 million worth of business for US is dwarfed by value
of gas sales to Soviets compared to hard currency Soviets could get
dit
.
from gas which will sharply reduce need for cre
William J. Casey
CiO
Approved For Release 2007/05/23: CIA-RDP83M00914R001200100006-6