THE HIGH-TECHNOLOGY ARMS MARKET

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001900230129-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 129
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/05/16: CIA-RDP83MOO914ROO
 SECRET/NOFORN
Approved For Release 2007/05/16: CIA-RDP83MOO914R0019002301
14 July 1982
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: The High-Technology Arms Market
The plan for the SNIE for the High-Technology Arms Market
looks good to me.I send along the attached modest contribution
from State.
William J. Casey
SECRET/NOFORN
d anVA
1 P-dos'
 ARMSTRADE TRENDS N THE THIRD WORLD
The Falklands Cris
may intensify an alread
World arms trade. Slac
ons is likely to be off
to upgrade existing arm
weapons,,:----_.__'
_...
Wealthier Third Wo'
Algeria or Iraq, are lil
particularly precision
military transport airci
Argentina, Egypt, Brazi,
make their-own major we,
to counteract the effec
during conflicts. Alth
for some years, their e
countries will emphasiz
plant investments and'p
higher costs of their
Third World nations may
logistics, and intellig
bility, and may increas
not necessarily lead to
these countries many co
the major arms supplier
weapons producers, will
The large arms buy
Approved For Release 2007/05/=-CIA-RDP83Mp0914R001900230:129,9
s, the war in Lebanon and the Iran-Iraq war
volatile and unpredictable trend in: Third
ened Third World demand for new major weap-
et by purchases of more capable subsystems
and by increased trade in used major.
Id states, such as Saudi Arabia,.Libya,
ely to buy more high-technology arms,
uided munitions, supporting systems, and
aft and vehicles. Industrializing nations--
--will also increasingly seek licenses to
pons and military electronics in an effort
.s of arms embargoes upon their suppliers ,
ugh their licensors will 'limit, or prevent
port of such products, the industrialising
other military exports to compensate for
oduction costs.
rs, many of which are not significant
further diversify their pruchases among
to ensure against arms-embargoes. S me of
(Jhde that great numbers of modern arms do
qualitative improvements in military-capa-
their contracts for military training,
nce. Both.the rich and the industrializing
increasingly sell older arms to offset the
w systems.
Less affluent Third World states--mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa
find increased markets.
supplied Iran and Iraq
Korea can supply many c
politically demanding I
makers of limited but k
Sweden, Switzerland and
in greater demand.
Established but heretofore minor arms suppliers are likely to
less costly.
and Central America--ma buy a higher percentage of used or retrans-
ferred older. weapons as complex European battlefield systems sup-
plied by the West and the Soviets become more expansive and harder
to maintain. The poorer Third World nations are likely to demand
new weapons systems, t ilored to their needs, that are simpler and
China and North Korea, for example, have
uring their conflict; both China and North
f theneeds of Soviet-equipped clients while
ess from them. The smaller West European
igh-technology lines of weaponry, such as
Austria, are likely to find their products