ESTIMATES - RANGE AND SCOPE OF NIE S

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R001900230165-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 165
• Content Type: MEMO

EXECUTIVE SECRETARIAT
Routing Slip
ACTION
INFO
DATE,
INITI
DCI
DDC
3
EXDIR
4
D/ICS
5
DDI
6
DDA
7
DDO
8
DDS&T
9
Chm/NIC
10
GC
11
IG
12
Compt
13
D/EEO
14
D/Pers
15
D/OEA
16
C/PAD/OEA
17
SA/IA
18
A0/DCI
19
C/IPD/01S
20
21
22
Executive Secretary
 Approved For Release 2007/05/16 SQ*E DP83 914R 1230165-9
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Director of Central Intelligence
SUBJECT: Estimates
1. 1 have been studying the scope and range of FEs
and early 70s as compared with the late 70s. The subjectrt
are no longer the subjects of estimates are, to my mind. trul
,,
some cases there are gaps of ten years and over. For example,
on Prospects for International Communism was done in 1964. I
paper and DDI has produced quite a good one on that subject. L
'
.why that shouldn
t be put through the Community to see what inp
f
th
rom
e rest of the Community.
2. The last estimate on Prospects for Argentina was in 1974.
certainly need another one as soon as we can assess the cost of
adventure,--and-there is no reason why some spade work on that
3. There was an estimate on Possible Soviet Military Inte ention
-
in the Syrian-Israeli War in 1975. We should get a fairly `arty estimate
on potential for Soviet intervention in Syria, including how the otential and
possibility of Soviet intervention would be affected by a possible Iran, Shia-
Iraq, Syrian, Lebanon, Libya axis, and the likelihood and implications of such
a development.
4. It looks to me as though the last estimate on Prospects for Nuclear
Proliferation. was in 1976. Why shouldn't that be looked at by the Community
currently?
5. The last estimate on the Reliance of the Soviet-East European Allies
appears to have been in 1966. That subject is being addressed, I understand,
by NI0/General Purpose Forces as part of a broader military assessment. It
may or may not be a good idea to pull it out and look at it again every couple
of years.
6. 1 want as soon as possible a Community estimate on US Intelligence
Capabilities to Monitor Limitations on Soviet Strategic Weapons. That one
appears to have died in 1968. 'Y C
roved For Release 2007/05/16: CIA-RDP83MOO914ROO1900230165-9
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2007/05/16: CIA-RDP83M00914R001900230165-9
7. There was one in 1965 on Soviet Capabilities for Concealing Strategic
Weapons Programs. I'd like to think of a broader one on the Soviet propensity
for concealment and deception.
8. Next week sometime I will have breakdowns and comparisons which will
help us review more carefully the gaps between the issues that are really
significant to our interests and the present program of estimates. which has
been greatly improved but can be further improved. To get you started on
broadening and stepping up the pace, I make these initial offerings.
William J. Casey