INF PROSPECTS IN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83M00914R002100170014-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2006/05/24: CIA-RDP83M00914R002100170014-0
Background Paper
1. Prospects for deployment will depend on the extent to which Europe
and governments consider INF worth accepting some risk of civil disorder and
their judgment of whether the US has negotiated in Geneva in good faith.
2. No European government has reneged on the decision (although Denmark
has frozenits contributii to INF infrastructure costs), but European publics
remains uneasy and new obstacles may arise before implementation.
3. The USSR will increasingly play on European anxieties to influence
the INF debate.
Opposition will increase as December 1983 deployment date nears;
serious violence and civil disobedience are possible.
The present government, if it survives new elections, will go ahead
with deployment, in the absence of progress in Geneva; but in the
meantime it may show signs of interest in negotiating a greater-
than-zero formula.
Italy
The new Fanfani government has confirmed that Italy will proceed
with cruise-missile basing in the absence of arms-control progress;
possible elections next year could, however, make INF a more serious
issue.
 Approved For Release 2006/05/24: CIA-RDP83M00914R002100170014-0
The anti-nuclear movement does not have the strength and
organization typical of northern Europe, but its activities will
increase as deployment approaches; Communist support for the
movement will probably remain relatively restrained.
-- The government remains committed to deployment, but opinion polls
for the first time show a majority of Britons opposing INF
modernization.
-- Some Tories are becoming nervous about the effects of deployment on
probable elections in 1983. This might lead to requests for
postponing the advance arrival of INF equipment or even a dual-key
release arrangement.
Belgium
-- The government has not yet announced it is prepared to move ahed
with deployment, but it has permitted preparatory work to proceed.
-- Anti-nuclear sentiment is strongest in Flanders, and the missile
site is in Wallonia; nevertheless, Brussels will carefully assess
general public opinion, the status of the Geneva negotiations, and
prospects in the ether ccur.tries before making a final
decision.
Netherlands
-- Public hostility remains high, and it is questionable that a
parliamentary majority for deployment can be found -- despite the
new center-right Christian Democrat - Liberal coalition government.
-- The government may seek to postpone further a deployment decision,
but in the meantime allow preparations for re ic(rving the missiles to
proceed.